Utilizing Probabilistic Analyses to Explore Performance Margins of Natural Gas Infrastructure for the Transport and Delivery of Hydrogen and Hydrogen Blends
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Schroeder, Benjamin B↗
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Utilizing Probabilistic Analyses to Explore Performance Margins of Natural Gas Infrastructure for the Transportation and Delivery of Hydrogen and Hydrogen Blends
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Schroeder, Benjamin B.↗
Development of Transformative Preparation Methods to Push up High Q&G Performance of FRIB Spare HWR Cryomodule Cavities
The FRIB accelerator project construction, a top priority of US nuclear science, was completed in January 2022, and is now moving to user operation. The stable and reliable operation of the accelerating cryomodules is essential in achieving/fulfilling DOE and user expectations. So far, FRIB cryomodules meet all FRIB specifications for cavity performance. However, during the lifetime of machine operation, degradation of cryomodule performance is possible, as reported in similar operating facilities (CEBAF, SNS). If cryomodule degradation is observed at FRIB, the under-performing cryomodule will require replacement/maintenance. In effort to manage operational reliability, FRIB plans to construct a 0.53 half-wave cryomodule to serve as an active spare. In a parallel effort, FRIB will also work toward increasing operational Q and gradient of spare cryomodule cavities to gain an overall performance margin to support future operational reliability. The current FRIB cavity designs have a potential to operate at gradients higher than 8 MV/m, but are currently limited by field emission (FE) and/or high field Q slope (HFQS); known issue in buffered chemical polished (BCP) treated cavities. The proposal looks to develop transformative surface preparation treatments to improve the operational gradient of spare cryomodules higher than 10 MV/m while maintaining high Q. Thus, increasing operational margin by 30 - 50%. With the goal to improve operational reliability set, the proposal will investigate multiple objectives as possible paths forward to achieve an overall increase in cavity performance and gain a better understanding of SRF limiting mechanisms. The proposal will study the application of different chemical surface treatments to 0.53 half-wave cavities, with the addition of low temperature bakes (LTB), and measure their effects on accelerating performance. Proposed chemical treatments to be explored in this proposal include conventional EP acid mixtures, as well as innovated EP and BCP acid mixtures designed to simplify processing paths in migrating FE and HFQS. The proposed transformative treatment wet N-doping also has the potential to replicate recent advancements in SRF technology relating to nitrogen doping and high Q operation without the requirement for an ultra-high vacuum annealing furnace; currently being developed at FNAL and JLAB. In parallel, high Q performance relating to flux trapping will be investigated with the installation of a second layer of magnetic shielding in the vertical test Dewar. The research objectives presented in the proposal, and their corresponding effects on cavity performance, will provide essential knowledge and future guidance to the SRF community and provide possible paths for future SRF based projects and applications.
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
Refabriation of HERA-HBU-2, LOC-HBU-1, and LOC-HBU-2
The development of advanced fuels for Light Water Reactors (LWRs) is essential for improved fuel performance and safety, including performance margins, uprates, and higher burnup. Because available commercial LWR fuels often cannot be used in research reactors, the refabrication of preirradiated fuel is necessary to enable follow-on testing of these fuels for characterizing fuel behavior during steady and transient irradiations.
11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
A review of five decades of strategic decisions and key results on the path to ignition on the National Ignition Facility
Successful demonstration of an implosion that meets the physics metrics for ignition on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) in August 2021 and demonstration of G > 1 in December 2022 represented the culmination of five decades of research. This review covers the key strategic decisions and physics results from the 20 J Janus laser to the 2 MJ NIF laser. NIF's specifications were set in order to have a margin in performance to account for uncertainty in the physics challenges leading to ignition, particularly for laser–plasma interaction and hydrodynamic instabilities including long-wavelength modes responsible for implosion symmetry. The ignition experiments utilized all that margin. Achieving the laser and target performance utilized in the Hybrid-E experiments that achieved ignition and G > 1 proved to be a challenge that consumed a decade.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
ON THE LANGUAGE OF RELIABILITY: A SYSTEM ENGINEER PERSPECTIVE
In its classical definition, risk is defined by three elements: what can go wrong, what are its consequences and how likely is it to occur. While this definition makes sense in a regulatory based framework to estimate risk associated to power plants (in terms of core damage frequency and large early release frequency), this approach does not provide a useful snapshot of the health of the plant. A possible alternate path can start by redefining the word “risk” to a broader meaning that better reflects the needs of a system health and asset management decision making process. Rather than asking how likely an event can occur (in probabilistic terms), we can ask how far this event is from occurring. We will show how, given the data available from plant equipment reliability and monitoring/diagnostic/prognostic centers, a margin can be described and determined for all type of maintenance approaches (e.g., corrective or predictive maintenance). We will show how to link SSC margin-based reliability models to system reliability models (i.e., fault trees) in order to assess system/plant health and how to perform margin-based system calculations. These calculations are not solved using classical probabilistic calculations applied to sets (as performed by any PRA code) but, instead, through metric spaces operations (i.e., distance/margin based approach).
97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Yield From Iowa's First Commercial Miscanthus Fields: Implications of Spatial Variability for Productivity and Sustainability Beyond Research Plots
The cultivation of sterile giant miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus, M × g) for bioenergy and bioproducts has expanded into grain-cropped land in the United States (US) as local markets developed for this high-yielding perennial grass (10–30 Mg DM ha −1 ). However, the magnitude of spatial and temporal variability in yield within US Corn Belt fields, along with impacts on economic return and sustainable land management, is poorly understood. This study established a diagnostic model relating remote sensing-derived vegetation indices to ground truth data from 105 hand-harvested stem biomass samples, which were strategically selected to represent the full range of vegetation index observations. The high-resolution satellite-sensed vegetation indices captured > 90% of the yield variation measured within fields. This model was then used to predict yield variability and assess economic performance across four of the first commercial M × g fields in the Corn Belt state of Iowa, US. Significant spatial variability in biomass dry matter (DM) yields (9.3–18.1 Mg DM ha −1 ) and net profits ($\$$83 to $\$$1211.5 ha −1 ) was observed. All fields were profitable in all site-years. When low profit occurred, it was explained by limited management experience of the crop in Iowa. The breakeven yield at a selling price of $\$$130 Mg −1 varied from 9.0–12.1 Mg ha −1 at 15% moisture content (7.6–10.3 Mg DM ha −1 ). Breakeven prices ranged from $\$$73 to $\$$122.4 Mg −1 , matching ranges used in the Department of Energy Billion Ton Report (US Department of Energy, 2023). Notably, M × g yield and profits were commensurate with grain crops particularly with favorable precipitation. This study provides insight on the M × g management “learning curve”, performance on marginal land and in drought conditions, and demonstrates that addressing yield gaps, reducing costs, and implementing precision agriculture strategies can enhance profitability. These findings emphasize the value of remote sensing technologies in guiding sustainable and competitive commercial-scale M × g production.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Regulatory Treatment of Low Frequency External Events under a Risk-Informed Performance-Based Licensing Pathway: Enhanced SPRA-based Margins Assessment
Recently there has been development in the field of risk-informed performance-based (RIPB) design and licensing approaches, which leverage detailed risk assessments and performance-based metrics to allow flexibility and innovation. These RIPB approaches include the probabilistic treatment of external hazards, including low frequency events that are beyond the design basis. However, there are certain challenges that have been identified to the probabilistic treatment of low frequency external events, primarily due to uncertainty in the hazard curve and the associated plant response to rare, severe events. The NRC is currently developing 10 CFR Part 53 that would establish a technology-inclusive regulatory framework for use by applicants for new commercial advanced nuclear reactors. By examining the regulatory safety criteria contained within draft 10 CFR Part 53 and associated draft RIPB seismic design guidance, potential challenges were identified in demonstrating satisfaction of the safety criteria for low frequency external events, with specific difficulties associated with demonstrating compliance with the quantitative health objectives (QHOs). Non-LWRs are expected to utilize the direct calculation of offsite consequence, rather than use surrogates, for comparison to the QHOs, which can be particularly challenging as the previously identified uncertainties are compounded by uncertainties in the response of the neighboring population. The central recommendation from this effort is that it is necessary to develop an approach for demonstrating compliance with the safety criteria in draft Part 53 that addresses the key challenges while providing flexibility to applicants. This paper summarizes key findings, establishes a series of high-level goals, and reviews a newly developed approach to address the major challenges associated with assessing compliance with QHOs, with avenues to demonstrate compliance based on either the estimated consequence or the available margin to event occurrence, while also building on existing experience of seismic margins assessments. The paper also provides examples to demonstrate the application of the approach, as well as recommendations and potential future work.
external hazards↗
High Flux Isotope Reactor Uncertainty Factors
This report provides a brief summary of the uncertainty factors used for High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) steady-state heat transfer analyses. These factors are mainly used in the HFIR Steady-State Heat Transfer Code (HSSHTC) to perform core thermal margin evaluations that determine safe reactor operation. The attempt to classify these factors stems from the assumption that the current approach is characterized by an excess of conservatism, thereby restricting reactor performance. The work documented herein was of a limited scope and pertained mainly to factors’ description and initial grouping based on their functional use. Suggestions are provided for further evaluation for the low-enriched uranium (LEU) to the uranium silicide dispersion fuel (U 3 Si 2 -Al).
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
3D TRISO particle-explicit compact meshing
The TRI-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) layered fuel particle is a robust nuclear fuel form offering enhanced safety and performance for advanced reactor concepts, including high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and other Generation IV designs. These poppy-seed-sized particles are embedded in a graphite matrix to form fuel elements that must withstand elevated temperatures and high burn-up levels. The heterogeneous nature of these fuel elements — comprising thousands of randomly distributed TRISO particles — produces complex stress fields and thermal gradients that one- and two-dimensional models cannot accurately capture. While three-dimensional modeling has improved predictions of dimensional changes, internal pressure buildup, and fission product transport under irradiation, current approaches rely on homogenized material properties that are known to have considerable divergence from experimental observations. This work presents a methodology for optimized random packing of TRISO fuel compacts and full three-dimensional mesh generation within the BISON fuel performance code, with each particle coating layer individually discretized. The resulting mesh was demonstrated through heat conduction simulations under representative in-reactor operating conditions, showing strong agreement with expected behavior. This capability enables detailed analysis of particle-to-particle interactions, matrix cracking mechanisms, and the statistical distribution of coating layer failures — all of which directly govern fuel performance and safety margins.
11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
HFIR LEU High Density Silicide Dispersion Optimized Design Steady-State Heat Transfer Analyses
Steady-state heat transfer simulations of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) with the low-enriched uranium (LEU) high-density silicide dispersion Optimized fuel design were performed to support comprehensive performance and safety metric studies concerning this design. The LEU Optimized design operates at 95 MW to maintain HFIR’s current highly enriched uranium (HEU) core performance level at 85 MW. Full cycle Mode 1 full flow Case 1 (inlet temperature), Case 2 (flux-to-flow), and Case 3 (inlet pressure) safety limit analyses were performed to assess the margins to critical heat flux. Under the prescribed conditions, this LEU design meets the safety limit and limiting control setting requirements outlined in HFIR’s documented safety analysis; however, the safety margins are less than those for the 85 MW HEU core, and several assumptions were made where fuel fabrication and qualification data are currently lacking for the silicide fuel design. Effects of changes to pertinent fuel fabrication assumptions and uncertainty factors on thermal safety margins were also evaluated, showing that the margins are sensitive to many of these parameters. Power and pressure perturbations were also performed, indicating that significant steady-state thermal margins could be gained by increasing the coolant inlet pressure.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification
Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Comparing Machine Learning and Physics-Based Nanoparticle Geometry Determinations Using Far-Field Spectral Properties
Anisotropic metal nanostructures exhibit polarization-dependent light scattering, a property which has been widely studied and exploited to determine orientations of subwavelength structures using far-field microscopy. Here we explore the use of variational autoencoders (VAEs) to determine the geometries of gold nanorods (NRs) such as in-plane orientation and aspect ratio under linearly polarized dark-field illumination in an optical microscope. We enforce a shared latent space to connect two VAEs trained separately with polarized dark-field scattering spectra and electron microscopy images and achieve image prediction (shape, orientation, and size) of Au NRs using only polarized dark-field scattering spectra. We determine the geometrical parameters of orientational angle and aspect ratio quantitatively via both our dual-VAE and physics-based analysis on the input scattering spectra. We show that orientational angle prediction by dual-VAE performs well with only a small (~300 particle) training set, yielding a mean absolute error (MAE) of 14.4° and a concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) of 0.95. This performance is only marginally worse than the physics-based cos(2?) fitting approach between the scattering intensity and the polarizing angle, which achieves MAE of 8.78° and CCC of 0.99. Aspect ratio determination is also comparable for the dual-VAE and physics-based fitting comparison (MAE of 0.21 vs. 0.23 and CCC of 0.53 vs. 0.68). Here, this dual encoder-decoder architecture effectively exploits the structure-property relationships of plasmonic nanostructures to construct a cross-modal machine learning (ML) approach, providing a pathway to employ ML approaches to address other structure-property relationships in materials science.
Dark-field scattering↗
Fuel performance analysis of fully-resolved TRISO compact
The TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel multilayered coating structure offers multiple barriers to fission product release, enhancing safety and performance. The heterogeneous nature of TRISO fuel compacts, comprising thousands of randomly distributed coated fuel particles embedded in a graphite matrix, creates intricate stress fields and thermal gradients that cannot be accurately modeled using simplified one-dimensional or homogenized approaches. Consequently, three-dimensional modeling enables the prediction of fuel compact dimensional changes, internal pressure buildup, and fission product transport pathways under diverse irradiation and thermal conditions. This capability facilitates detailed analysis of particle-to-particle interactions, matrix cracking mechanisms, and the statistical distribution of coating failures, which directly impact fuel performance and safety margins. This capability is particularly critical for advanced reactors, such as high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and other Generation IV reactor designs where TRISO fuel operates at elevated temperatures and burn-up levels. This work introduces a novel method to generate an optimized packing of TRISO compacts and a complete 3D mesh with random distribution of TRISO particles, which are discretized into each coating component layer.
11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
The Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility at 12 GeV
This review paper describes the energy-upgraded Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) accelerator. This superconducting linac has achieved 12 GeV beam energy by adding 11 new high-performance cryomodules containing 88 superconducting cavities that have operated cw at an average accelerating gradient of 20 MV / m . After reviewing the attributes and performance of the previous 6 GeV CEBAF accelerator, we discuss the upgraded CEBAF accelerator system in detail with particular attention paid to the new beam acceleration systems. In addition to doubling the acceleration in each linac, the upgrade included improving the beam recirculation magnets, adding more helium cooling capacity to allow the newly installed modules to run cold, adding a new experimental hall, and improving numerous other accelerator components. We review several of the techniques deployed to operate and analyze the accelerator performance and document system operating experience and performance. In the final portion of the document, we present much of the current planning regarding projects to improve accelerator performance and enhance operating margins, and our plans for ensuring CEBAF operates reliably into the future. For the benefit of potential users of CEBAF, the performance and quality measures for the beam delivered to each of the experimental halls are summarized in the Appendix. Published by the American Physical Society 2024
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
Demagnetization analysis of an 18 GHz electron cyclotron resonance ion source permanent magnet hexapole
An upgrade of ECR2 at the Argonne Tandem Linac Accelerator System is under way, focusing on increasing the intensity capabilities of the facility. ECR2 is a room temperature electron cyclotron resonance ion source, and the upgrade has strict requirements to retain radial access to the plasma chamber and keep the ion source operating without the use of superconducting magnets. The upgrade design with respect to the magnet arrangement and magnetization vectors has recently been presented [R. C. Vondrasek, J. McLain, and R. H. Scott, J. Phys.: Conf. Ser. 2743 , 012044 (2024)] using the same magnetic material as the current ECR2 hexapole. A thorough exploration of the demagnetization potential of this hexapole was carried out, and the risk of demagnetization was deemed too high, despite the magnetic performance meeting the requirements for the upgrade. Additional permanent magnet materials are considered with their respective performance evaluated. Magnet strength and demagnetization resistance are investigated and optimized with the final room temperature design demonstrating a high temperature transient demagnetization resistance and a radial magnetic field of 1.18 T at the plasma chamber wall. Finally, the simulations of this hexapole suggest that it will be sufficient to optimize intensity with a 14.5 GHz driving frequency and will allow 18 GHz operation, while keeping a high safety margin for maintaining magnet performance.
Argonne Tandem Linac Accelerator System↗
Observational constraints on early dark energy
In this paper, we review and update constraints on the Early Dark Energy (EDE) model from cosmological data sets, in particular Planck PR3 and PR4 cosmic microwave background (CMB) data and large-scale structure (LSS) data sets including galaxy clustering and weak lensing data from the Dark Energy Survey, Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam and KiDS+VIKING-450, as well as BOSS/eBOSS galaxy clustering and Lyman-[Formula: see text] forest data. We detail the fit to CMB data, and perform the first analyses of EDE using the CAMSPEC and Hillipop likelihoods for Planck CMB data, rather than Plik, both of which yield a tighter upper bound on the allowed EDE fraction than that found with Plik. We then supplement CMB data with LSS data in a series of new analyses. All these analyses are concordant in their Bayesian preference for [Formula: see text]CDM over EDE, as indicated by marginalized posterior distributions. We perform a series of tests of the impact of priors in these results, and compare with frequentist analyses based on the profile likelihood, finding qualitative agreement with the Bayesian results. All these tests suggest prior volume effects are not a determining factor in analyses of EDE. This work provides both a review of existing constraints and several new analyses.
Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
Status of Multiple Channel Fuel Performance Capabilities Within the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Safety Analysis Software
SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) is a fast-running simulation tool used to perform deterministic analysis of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactors. It is a critical element of safety analysis capabilities for the U.S. Department of Energy and is utilized within industry to perform the transient safety analyses required to support the licensing of Liquid Metal-cooled Fast Reactors (LMFRs). Although SAS is exceptionally fast for most transient scenarios, fuel performance calculations, along with the associated pre-transient characterization of the fuel pin, may be required for transient scenarios where fuel pin failure is hypothesized. Both the pre-transient characterization and the transient fuel performance calculation are necessary to properly quantify margins to potential fuel failure and assess the time spent potentially exceeding such margins during events. While safety analysis calculations with fuel performance models provide a more detailed characterization of the reactor during a transient, the pre-transient characterization can be time-consuming and computationally expensive. Often, large numbers of fuel pins have been exposed to similar pre-transient irradiation conditions. Similarly, the same pre-transient fuel characterization may be applicable to numerous transient conditions. This provides an opportunity to optimize the SAS computational framework such that pre-transient fuel characterization can be shared across multiple channels (fuel pins) and across multiple simulations, thus dramatically reducing overall computational costs. This report summarizes progress toward enhancing the SAS computational framework to support shared, multiple channel fuel performance characterizations intended to significantly reduce computational costs. Preliminary testing has shown that the computational time saved by using the pre-transient sharing capability is approximately equal to the time it takes to perform the pre-transient characterization.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗