Towards the True Hybrid: Physics-Informed Trainable Models for Prognostics and Health Management
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Physics-Informed Machine Learning↗
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Towards the True Hybrid: Physics-Informed Trainable Models for Prognostics and Health Management
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physics-informed machine learning↗
Power Hibernation for Low-Cost Solar Powered Lunar Missions
Because the surface of the Moon drops to cryogenic temperatures, no solar-powered lunar spacecraft have reliably operated beyond a single lunar day. Passive thermal control cannot keep a spacecraft sufficiently warm for the 354-hour lunar night, and active thermal control requires a dramatic increase in battery mass at the expense of payload mass. Extreme conditions seen on the lunar surface suggest a radioisotope solution is ideal, but mass, cost, and schedule are inconsistent with low-cost frequent flight intent of the commercial lunar payload services (CLPS) program. To solve the issue of lunar night survivability without radioisotope sources of power and heat, a lunar power hibernation approach is being developed at the Glenn Research Center, which exploits the ability of common 18650 Lithium-ion cells to passively survive cryogenic freeze-thaw cycles and recover without apparent performance degradation. A key aspect of this hibernation approach is the use of cryogenically operable electronics that safely manage the restoration of the battery thermal environment at lunar dawn. A spacecraft utilizing this strategy will operate into the lunar night on batteries until the state of charge or spacecraft temperature reaches a predetermined threshold. At this point, systems are shut down and the battery is isolated from the main bus to prevent charge or discharge during the freezing and thawing transitions. The system remains passive until lunar dawn, where temperatures can reach as low as 50 K. All electronics must be tolerant to these conditions. When the solar arrays are finally illuminated at lunar dawn, the main bus power electronics will initiate a “cold start” and begin regulating array power. The main bus electronics must be designed to operate at cryogenic temperatures. Array power is used to warm the battery and passive electronics back to operational temperatures. Once batteries are returned to normal temperatures, diagnostics and precharging is performed, as needed, and the battery is reconnected. The overall spacecraft system reboots and returns to nominal operations until lunar night returns. To assure that we can develop batteries suited for many hibernation freeze/thaw cycles, STMD Space Technology Research Grant Program (STRG) has selected two principal investigators that will thoroughly characterize of the Li-ion cell through the freeze-thaw process, investigate degradation mechanisms, and identify potential diagnostic techniques. STMD STRG is also funding an investigation of Gallium-Nitride semiconductors for cryogenic power applications. This work includes physics-informed modeling that considers cryogenic conductivity, carrier mobility, and quantum effects that govern semiconductor performance at cryogenic temperatures. These models can enable engineers to develop accurate cryogenic simulation models that assist in the design of power controls stable over the entire lunar surface temperature range. Meanwhile, Glenn is performing cryogenic testing of batteries and electronics, establishing design guidelines for power applications in extreme cold lunar environment, and potentially developing a hibernation technology demonstrator. The hibernation approach will enable low-cost lunar robotic missions to extend their operating lifetime to many months while minimizing development costs and impact on payload capacity. The need for cryogenically operable electronics is restricted to only main bus power and battery controls, as the majority of systems simply need to passively tolerate cryogenic temperatures. This allows developers to continue to exploit the cost savings of legacy and COTS hardware with minimum modification. For these reasons, lunar power hibernation is a viable near-term solution for lunar night survivability for solar powered commercial landers.
Space power↗
Physics-Informed Deep Learning for Modeling & Simulation Under Uncertainty
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Patrick Leser↗
Physics-Informed Data-driven Modeling of Supersonic Retropropulsion
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Supersonic Retropropulsion↗
Toward Transition Modeling in a Hypersonic Boundary Layer at Flight Conditions
An accurate physics-based transition prediction method integrated with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solvers is pursued for hypersonic boundary layer flows over slender hypersonic vehicles at flight conditions. The geometry and flow conditions are selected to match relevant trajectory locations from the ascent phase of the HIFiRE-1 flight experiment, namely, a 7-degree half-angle cone with 2.5 mm nose radius, freestream Mach numbers in the range of 3.8 – 5.5 and freestream unit Reynolds numbers in the range of 3.3 × 10(exp 6) – 21.4 × 10(exp 6) m(exp -1). Earlier research had shown that the onset of transition during the HIFiRE-1 flight experiment correlated with an amplification factor of N ≈ 13.5 for the planar Mack modes. However, to incorporate the N-factor correlations into a CFD code, we investigate surrogate models for disturbance amplification that avoid the direct computation of stability characteristics. A commonly used approach for low-speed flows is based on an a priori database of stability characteristics for locally similar profiles. However, the results presented in this paper demonstrate that the application of this approach to hypersonic boundary layers over blunt spherical nose-tip cones leads to large, unacceptable errors in the predictions of amplification factors, mainly due to its failure in accounting for the effects of the entropy layer on the boundary-layer profiles along the length of the model. We propose and demonstrate an alternate approach that employs the stability computations for a canonical set of blunt cone configurations to train a physics-informed convolutional neural network model that is shown to provide substantially improved transition predictions for hypersonic flow configurations with entropy-layer effects. Furthermore, the excellent performance of the neural network model is also confirmed for cone configurations with nose radius and half-angle values that do not correspond to those used to build the database. Finally, the convolutional neural network model is shown to outperform the linear stability calculations for underresolved basic states.
Pedro Paredes↗
NASA Earth: Synthetic Spectranomics - Deep Learning of Surface 3-D Geometry, Chemistry, and Hyperspectra to Inform Next-generation Land Models
Machine and deep learning (ML/DL) have transformed our approach to Earth observation and system modeling (EOSM), unifying both in view of ML/DL models as a form of data assimilation (DA). Trained on diverse Earth observation records, detailed physical models, or hybrids of both in physics-informed machine learning, ML/DL may improve upon existing Earth system model (ESM) formulations while creating entirely new classes of models. One important application of deep learning is observation synthesis, allowing ESM developers to prepare for the increased spatial, temporal, and spectral/polar resolution of proposed future observing systems. This may involve the retrospective application of learning algorithms to existing observational records, with or without physical radiative transfer models, to co-inform mission planning and ESM development while providing a degree of data continuity for new missions.
Adam Erickson↗
Li-ion Battery Aging with Hybrid Physics-Informed Neural Networks and Fleet-wide Data
In this work, we propose a hybrid model for Li-ion battery discharge and aging prediction that leverages fleet-wide data to predict future capacity drops.The model is built upon an hybrid approach merging physics-based and empirical equations, as well as neural network models in a recurrent neural network cell. The hybrid physics-informed neural network can predict voltage discharge cycles given the loading profile, and estimate the used capacity of the battery under random-loading conditions by tracking aging parameters connected to the residual capacity of the battery. By merging information on the battery aging parameters with existing fleet-wide aging data, the model can predict the future residual capacity of the battery that is being monitored, and therefore enable predictions of voltage discharge curves far ahead in the battery life cycle. We validated the approach using the NASA Prognostics Data Repository Battery data-set, which contains experimental data on Li-ion batteries discharged at random loading conditions in a controlled environment. The approach also allows the identification of discrepancies between the battery aging trend and the trend observed at the fleet level, so that batteries behaving differently from the rest of the fleet can be subject to closer monitoring and further testing to refine predictions.
PINN↗
Hybrid Modeling for Complex Systems Health Management
The research work presents application of hybrid physics-informed machine learning to a representative electric powertrain for unmanned aerial vehicles. The model is composed of physics-derived and empirical equations, integrated with connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage. The powertrain model consists of Li-ion batteries, electronic speed controller with pulse-width modulation, and brush-less DC motor with connected propeller. Results obtained from combination of laboratory and simulation tests are discussed in this work.
PINNS↗
Hybrid Modeling of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Electric Powertrain for Fault Detection and Diagnostics
This paper shows the application of hybrid physics-informed machine learning to a representative electric powertrain for unmanned aerial vehicles. The model is composed of physics-derived principles and empirical equations, as well as fully connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage. It has already been applied to Li-ion batteries in the past, and in this work, we extend the applications to other components of an electric powertrain, namely electronic speed controller with pulse-width modulation, and brushless DC motor with connected propeller. Training and testing of the model is carried out using experimental data from Li-ion battery discharge and powertrain testing in a laboratory environment.
Physics-Informed Machine Learning↗
Toward Physics-informed Neural Networks for 3D Multi-layer Cloud Mask Reconstruction
Three-dimensional (3D) cloud retrievals are critical for understanding their impact on climate and other applications such as aviation safety, weather prediction, and remote sensing. However, obtaining high-resolution and accurate vertical representation of clouds remains unsolved due to the limitations imposed by satellite instrumentation, viewing conditions, and the complexity of cloud dynamics. Cloud masks are essential for comprehending various cloud vertical properties, but deriving accurate 3D cloud masks from 2D satellite imagery data is a challenging task. To tackle these challenges, we introduce a physics-informed loss function for training deep learning models that can extend 2D cloud images into 3D cloud masks. The proposed loss, called CloudMask Loss, is composed of two domain knowledge-informed loss terms: one for evaluating cloud position and thickness, and the other for measuring the number of layers. By combining these loss terms, we improve the trainability of the deep learning models for more accurate and meaningful results. We apply the proposed loss function to different neural networks and demonstrate significant improvements in multi-layer cloud mask reconstruction. Utilizing the same neural network architecture, our proposed loss outperforms standard binary crossentropy loss in terms of multi-layer cloud classification accuracy, number of layers accuracy, and thickness mean absolute error (MAE). The proposed loss function can be readily integrated into various neural network architectures, resulting in substantial performance gains in 3D cloud mask generation.
multi-layer clouds↗
Usage-based Lifing of Lithium-Ion Battery with HybridPhysics-Informed Neural Networks
Lithium-ion batteries are commonly used to power unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs).The ability to model and forecast the remaining useful life of these batteries enables UAV reliability assurance. Building accurate models for battery state of charge and state of health based on first principles is challenging due to the complex electrochemistry that governs battery operations and computational complexity required to solve them. Therefore, reduced order models are often used due to their ability to capture the overall battery discharge. Un-fortunately, these simplifications lead to residual discrepancy between model predictions and observed data. In this paper, we present a hybrid modeling approach merging reduced-order models and neural networks. In this approach, while most of the input-output relationship is captured by Nernst and Butler-Volmer equations, data-driven kernels reduce the gap between predictions and observations. We validate our approach using data publicly available through the NASA Prognostics Center of Excellence repository. Results showed that our hybrid battery prognosis model can be successfully calibrated, even with a limited number of observations.
Lithium-ion Battery↗
Physics Informed Neural Nets for Systems Health Management
To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Development in data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. The research work presents application of physics-informed neural nets application to a representative electric powertrain for unmanned aerial vehicles. The model is composed of physics-derived and empirical equations, integrated with connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage.
Physics Informed↗
Physics-Guided Deep Learning for Complex System Health Management and Decision Making
The landscape of complex engineered systems is rapidly evolving, from smart manufacturing facilities to next-generation transportation vehicles. As these systems become increasingly sophisticated and interconnected, the need for advanced health management systems grows ever more critical. These systems must go beyond simple monitoring, actively predicting potential failures before they occur. This paradigm shift from fixed maintenance schedules to condition-based predictions is key to optimizing system performance, enhancing safety, and paving the way for autonomous decision-making across various industries. Whether in industrial processes, energy systems, or advanced transportation, the ability to anticipate and prevent failures is becoming a cornerstone of operational excellence. To accurately predict the future health of any complex system, knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions is essential. Recent advancements in data-driven algorithms have generated growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. However, the limitations of pure data-driven methods, particularly in industries where data acquisition is costly and limited, have become apparent. This has led to a focus on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, mitigating the drawbacks of both approaches while emphasizing their respective advantages. This research proposes a novel framework for integrating physics-based performance models with deep learning algorithms for the prognostics of complex safety-critical systems. In this approach, physics-based models serve as a blueprint, capturing fundamental system behaviors, while deep learning algorithms, leveraging real-world sensor data, fill in gaps and identify subtle patterns indicative of potential problems. This hybrid methodology, utilizing techniques such as Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), offers a powerful solution for predicting system health. By fusing domain knowledge with data-driven insights, this approach promises more accurate, adaptable, and reliable models for health prediction. The resulting framework is versatile, applicable across various sectors including aerospace, manufacturing, and energy systems, ultimately contributing to safer, more efficient operations in our increasingly complex technological landscape.
Diagnostics↗
Application of Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics for Physics-Informed Learning
Advances in machine learning and deep neural networks has enabled complex engineering tasks like image recognition, anomaly detection, regression, and multi-objective optimization, to name but a few. The complexity of the algorithm architecture, e.g., the number of hidden layers in a deep neural network, typically grows with the complexity of the problems they are required to solve, leaving little room for interpreting (or explaining) the path that results in a specific solution. This drawback is particularly relevant for autonomous aerospace and aviation systems, where certifications require a complete understanding of the algorithm behavior in all possible scenarios. Including physics knowledge in such data-driven tools may improve the interpretability of the algorithms, thus enhancing model validation against events with low probability but relevant for system certification. Such events include, for example, spacecraft or aircraft sub-system failures, for which data may not be available in the training phase. This paper investigates a recent physics-informed learning algorithm for identification of system dynamics, and shows how the governing equations of a system can be extracted from data using sparse regression. The learned relationships can be utilized as a surrogate model which, unlike typical data-driven surrogate models, relies on the learned underlying dynamics of the system rather than large number of fitting parameters. The work shows that the algorithm can reconstruct the differential equations underlying the observed dynamics using a single trajectory when no uncertainty is involved. However, the training set size must increase when dealing with stochastic systems, e.g., nonlinear dynamics with random initial conditions.
Corbetta, Matteo↗
Flow Reconstruction in A Transonic Turbine Cascade Using Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNS)
This paper investigates the application of Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) for the analysis of turbine blades in a transonic cascade. The 2-D flow field in a transonic turbine cascade is reconstructed in three ways: the traditional forward approach (PINN not trained on experimental data), by training the PINN using discrete sets of experimentally measured pressure at midspan, and in the inverse sense where no inlet or outlet pressure boundary conditions are applied. Comparisons between the PINN solutions to measured data are made. This is repeated for three different turbine blades with distinct loading characteristics. Good agreement is shown between a CFD calculation of the CMC7 blade, and the PINN model trained with all data. The PINN is trained utilizing all available data, half the available data, data from only the leading edge region, and data from only the trailing edge region. The forward problem results deviate the most from experimental data but show promise. Solutions from the assisted training cases show that the PINN can reconstruct the flow field with acceptable accuracy when trained on measurements along the entire blade. In the inverse case, it is shown that to simultaneously achieve acceptable errors for inlet Mach number and outlet isentropic Mach number, the PINN must be trained on the static pressure data along the entire blade.
Machine Learning↗