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DOE OSTI2026

A comparative study of multimodal data fusion strategies for planetary spectroscopy

Integrating heterogeneous data sources can improve scientific inference when different modalities capture complementary information, but doing so is challenging in high-dimensional, small-sample settings. In spectroscopy for planetary exploration, Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS), Raman Spectroscopy (Raman), Visible Infrared Spectroscopy (VISIR), and Mid-Infrared Spectroscopy (MIR) each examine different aspects of composition and mineralogy, raising fundamental questions about when and how data fusion improves predictive performance. Using a Mars-relevant set of geologic standards with measurements from all four modalities, we present a rigorous systematic evaluation of four data fusion strategies: low-level (data) fusion, mid-level (feature) fusion, high-level (decision) fusion, and residual-boosting (sequential) fusion. We assess performance in predicting oxide composition via nested cross-validation and corrected significance testing to evaluate whether data fusion improves upon single-modality baselines. We show that data fusion does not uniformly improve accuracy, and that observed gains are modest, oxide-dependent, and sensitive to modality and model structure. To move beyond aggregate accuracy metrics, we use model coefficients, permutation importance, and residual gain analysis to examine how the fusion models weight individual modalities and to identify patterns of apparent complementarity or redundancy. Though focused on spectroscopy for planetary exploration, our framework for data fusion evaluation and interpretation extends to other scientific domains with heterogeneous and scarce data and provides a principled approach evaluating data fusion strategies, interpreting modality contributions, and understanding tradeoffs among data fusion strategies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Non-traditional stable isotope measurements using laser desorption Orbitrap mass spectrometry: Implications for planetary missions.

Isotopic fractionation recorded in planetary materials provides insights into physical, chemical, and/or potential biological processes occurring on Solar System bodies. As we enter into the next decades of planetary exploration, the crucial information revealed by isotopic compositions of rocky and icy samples mandates that next generation spaceflight instrumentation possess the capability to measure isotope ratios in situ with sufficient precision/accuracy to distinguish between such processes. Here, in addition to identifying and fingerprinting complex organic materials with high accuracy and ultrahigh mass resolutions, laser desorption Orbitrap™ mass spectrometry (LD-O-MS) has the capability to determine the elemental and isotopic composition of solid planetary materials such as rock, regolith, organics, ice, etc. Here, we use a space-qualified LD-O-MS instrument comprising a 266 nm ultraviolet (UV) laser and Orbitrap mass analyzer ruggedized for planetary applications to investigate the stable isotopic composition of Ti and Zn metal plates. Based on the isotopic analyses, we constrain the performance of the CORALS instrument to sub per mille (‰) level accuracy and precision for Ti and at the per mille (‰) level for Zn. An LD-O-MS instrument is a versatile instrument capable of measuring isotopic composition of a variety of planetary samples and would constitute a critical instrument in the exploration of various planetary bodies including but not limited to Moon, Mars, Enceladus and other ocean or icy worlds, Ceres and other asteroids, and comets, thereby answering several high-priority questions pertaining to the formation and evolution of our Solar System.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Radiation-induced alteration of apatite on the surface of Mars: first in situ observations with SuperCam Raman onboard Perseverance

Abstract Planetary exploration relies considerably on mineral characterization to advance our understanding of the solar system, the planets and their evolution. Thus, we must understand past and present processes that can alter materials exposed on the surface, affecting space mission data. Here, we analyze the first dataset monitoring the evolution of a known mineral target in situ on the Martian surface, brought there as a SuperCam calibration target onboard the Perseverance rover. We used Raman spectroscopy to monitor the crystalline state of a synthetic apatite sample over the first 950 Martian days (sols) of the Mars2020 mission. We note significant variations in the Raman spectra acquired on this target, specifically a decrease in the relative contribution of the Raman signal to the total signal. These observations are consistent with the results of a UV-irradiation test performed in the laboratory under conditions mimicking ambient Martian conditions. We conclude that the observed evolution reflects an alteration of the material, specifically the creation of electronic defects, due to its exposure to the Martian environment and, in particular, UV irradiation. This ongoing process of alteration of the Martian surface needs to be taken into account for mineralogical space mission data analysis.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the EarthSHAB Stratospheric Solar Hot Air Balloon Flight Prediction Model Using Balloon Trajectory Data

Abstract The heliotrope is a solar balloon design which is constructed out of painter’s plastic, and the exterior is coated in charcoal powder. Darkening the plastic gives the balloon a high solar absorptance, which allows it to ascend into the lower stratosphere and float for hours at a time. The balloons have previously been used to lift scientific instruments into the stratosphere to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, and stratospheric aerosols. They have also been proposed as a platform for planetary exploration. Flight predictions are crucial to preflight planning to reduce safety risks and meet flight objectives. However, there exists a wide range of possible flight paths due to varying environmental conditions and solar balloon configurations. EarthSHAB is one such software that was designed to support flight planning using the weather forecasts and balloon properties to predict the flight path of a solar balloon. We compare EarthSHAB-simulated flight paths to a set of observed flight paths for the 3.5-m diameter heliotrope design called the “Cloudskimmer.” Using the criteria that the modeled paths must fall within 5% of the observations to be considered successful, we found that EarthSHAB successfully predicted the Cloudskimmer ascent rate and average float altitude 10% and 90% of the time, respectively. We also found that the average difference in the observed and predicted landing locations was 97 km and landing times were 54 ± 38 min. Significant deviations between the observed and predicted ascent rates and excursions at float were found to be associated with heavy payloads and convective cloud development, respectively. Significance Statement Solar balloons are used to lift scientific instruments into the lower stratosphere for hours at a time to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, stratospheric aerosols, and more. The flight paths of solar balloons can be difficult to predict due to variability in their design and surrounding environment. We evaluate the accuracy of EarthSHAB, a software that predicts the altitude profile and horizontal trajectory of a solar balloon using inputs such as the weather, balloon size, and balloon mass. Our results suggest that for the balloon design used in this study, EarthSHAB is best suited for modeling the behavior of balloons with lightweight payloads that do not fly within or directly above clouds.

Lien, Jessica M. [Sandia National Laboratories, Al↗

DOE OSTI2024

Perspectives and Challenges in Bolide Infrasound Processing and Interpretation: A Focused Review with Case Studies

Infrasound sensing plays a critical role in the detection and analysis of bolides, offering passive, cost-effective global monitoring capabilities. Key objectives include determining the timing, location, and yield of these events. Achieving these goals requires a robust approach to detect, analyze, and interpret rapidly moving elevated sources such as bolides (also re-entry). In light of advancements in infrasonic methodologies, there is a need for a comprehensive overview of the characteristics that distinguish bolides from other infrasound sources and methodologies for bolide infrasound analysis. This paper provides a focused review of key considerations and presents a unified framework to enhance infrasound processing approaches specifically tailored for bolides. Three representative case studies are presented to demonstrate the practical application of infrasound processing methodologies and deriving source parameters while exploring challenges associated with bolide-generated infrasound. These case studies underscore the effectiveness of infrasound in determining source parameters and highlight interpretative challenges, such as variations in signal period measurements across different studies. Future research should place emphasis on improving geolocation and yield accuracy. This can be achieved through rigorous and systematic analyses of large, statistically significant samples of such events, aiming to resolve interpretative inconsistencies and explore the causes for variability in signal periods and back azimuths. The topic described here is also relevant to space exploration involving planetary bodies with atmospheres, such as Venus, Mars, and Titan.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Final Technical Report for DoE award DE‐SC0023367 “Energetic Electron Transport in Magnetized Plasma with Magnetic Islands”

This project investigated how plasmas interact with energetic particles and solid materials under extreme conditions relevant to fusion energy, space plasmas, and planetary environments. Using experiments on the DIII-D National Fusion Facility, the research first examined how high-energy electrons move, become trapped, and are released in plasmas containing magnetic islands—structures commonly found in fusion reactors and Earth’s magnetosphere—providing new insight into particle transport and acceleration processes. The project also explored plasma-driven chemical reactions that can occur during meteoroid entry into planetary atmospheres, demonstrating that simple molecules such as ammonia can be produced and survive in high-temperature plasma conditions. Together, these results improve understanding of plasma behavior across laboratory, space, and planetary systems while informing fusion plasma control and plasma–material interaction studies. The project additionally contributed to workforce development by training graduate students, undergraduates, and early-career researchers and by disseminating results through peer-reviewed publications and international scientific conferences.

Orlov, Dmitri Mikhailovich [UC San Diego] (ORCID:0↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring toroidal anvil profiles for larger sample volumes above 4 Mbar

Abstract With the advent of toroidal and double-stage diamond anvil cells (DACs), pressures between 4 and 10 Mbar can be achieved under static compression, however, the ability to explore diverse sample assemblies is limited on these micron-scale anvils. Adapting the toroidal DAC to support larger sample volumes offers expanded capabilities in physics, chemistry, and planetary science: including, characterizing materials in soft pressure media to multi-megabar pressures, synthesizing novel phases, and probing planetary assemblages at the interior pressures and temperatures of super-Earths and sub-Neptunes. Here we have continued the exploration of larger toroidal DAC profiles by iteratively testing various torus and shoulder depths with central culet diameters in the 30–50 µm range. We present a 30 µm culet profile that reached a maximum pressure of 414(1) GPa based on a Pt scale. The 300 K equations of state fit to our P–V data collected on gold and rhenium are compatible with extrapolated hydrostatic equations of state within 1% up to 4 Mbar. This work validates the performance of these large-culet toroidal anvils to > 4 Mbar and provides a promising foundation to develop toroidal DACs for diverse sample loading and laser heating.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale astrobiology with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) presents an unprecedented opportunity to advance the search for astrobiologically relevant data across diverse astronomical environments. Through its extensive imaging capabilities, LSST will enhance our inventory of Solar System objects and assess their potential astrobiological conditions. Beyond the Solar System, LSST will survey billions of stars, contributing to the detection of exoplanets, characterizing planetary atmospheres at a zeroth-order level, identifying transient phenomena, and exploring conditions within habitable zones. In this paper, we highlight LSST’s unique contribution to astrobiology, complementing other missions and expanding the search for life beyond Earth in the coming decades.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Liquid Structure of Iron and Iron–Nitrogen–Carbon Alloys Within the Cores of Small Terrestrial Bodies

Abstract Nitrogen has been proposed to be stored within planetary cores, but its effects on the structure and density of molten Fe–alloys have not been explored experimentally. Using energy‐dispersive X‐ray diffraction, we determined the structure of Fe–N(–C) liquids at core conditions (1–7 GPa and 1700–1900°C) within a Paris‐Edinburgh press. Variation of N up to 7 wt.% and C up to 1.5 wt.% results in near‐linear changes in Fe–Fe atom distances and structure factor with increasing light element content. We did not observe a significant pressure‐driven structural transition in Fe–N(–C) liquids. We model the expansion of the Fe–Fe bonds using a modified Birch‐Murnaghan equation of state. With this model, we demonstrate that N or C contamination could lead to an overestimation of the Fe–Fe distances of pure Fe. We observe that the incorporation of 1 wt.% N or C into Fe results in a change in Fe–Fe distances that is twice as significant as the effect of 1 GPa. By approximating the change in volume, we infer that N and C incorporated in liquid iron could contribute to the density deficit observed in the cores of terrestrial bodies.

Pease, Allison [Department of Earth and Environmen↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mineralogical evidence for hydrothermal alteration of Bennu samples

Samples of asteroid (101955) Bennu delivered by the OSIRIS-REx mission offer the opportunity to study pristine planetary materials unchanged by exposure to the terrestrial environment. Here we use a combination of X-ray diffraction and various electron microscopy techniques to explore the detailed mineralogy of Bennu samples and determine the alteration history of the planetesimal protolith from which they originated. The samples consist largely of hydrated sheet-silicate minerals, namely nanoscale serpentine and saponite of varied grain size, which are decorated with micro- to nanoscale Fe-sulfides, magnetite and carbonates. We observe sheet silicates parallel and normal to sulfide surfaces and as inclusions in sulfides; sulfur-rich veins transecting the sheet-silicate matrix; zoned carbonates and phosphates and sulfide and magnetite grains exhibiting embayment. The mineralogical evidence indicates alteration of accreted minerals by a fluid that evolved with time, leading to etching, dissolution and reprecipitation. Sulfide compositions indicate alteration at ~25 °C, similar to conditions inferred for asteroid (162173) Ryugu and Ivuna-type (CI) chondrite meteorites. The fluid probably evolved from neutral to alkaline, culminating with the precipitation of highly soluble salts. We conclude that Bennu’s protolith comprised mainly nanometre to micrometre silicates, with fewer chondrules and calcium–aluminium-rich inclusions than those of most chondrite groups.

Zega, T J↗

DOE OSTI2025

Revealing the Moon's Taurus‐Littrow Landslide via Integrated Analysis of Pristine Apollo 17 Soil Core 73001/2

The “light mantle” deposit at the base of South Massif in the Moon's Taurus‐Littrow Valley was a primary science target for the Apollo 17 exploration. The possibility that it was a landslide triggered by ejecta from Tycho Crater is critical for establishing the age of Tycho and constraining recent lunar impact chronology; however, the mechanism of emplacement of the deposit has recently been questioned. The newly opened 73001/73002 double drive tube from Station 3 sampled 70.6 cm deep into the regolith and represents the first stratigraphic section of an extraterrestrial landslide deposit returned to Earth. Here we provide an overview of the stratigraphy of the 73001/73002 core based on top to bottom variations revealed by coordinated laboratory analyses and explore constraints on the emplacement of the light mantle deposit. Briefly, the upper ∼10 cm of 73002 contains a disturbed zone from space weathering and emplacement of ejecta from a nearby crater that excavated and ejected basaltic material. Below 10 cm is a nearly uniform unit of immature regolith. These data support a single event for the emplacement of the deposit at this location, followed by weathering and mixing of materials from nearby crater ejecta in the upper 10 cm. Slight variations in chemistry and clast components may reflect the relative stratigraphy of the South Massif slope, with material toward the bottom of 73001 originating from lower slopes and material from higher up in the core representing regolith from higher up the South Massif slopes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

BD+44°493: Chemo-dynamical Analysis and Constraints on Companion Planetary Masses from WIYN/NEID Spectroscopy

In this work, we present high-resolution (R ~ 100,000), high signal-to-noise ratio (S/N ~ 800) spectroscopic observations for the well-known, bright, extremely metal-poor, carbon-enhanced star BD+44°493. We determined chemical abundances and upper limits for 17 elements from WIYN/NEID data, complemented with 11 abundances redetermined from Subaru and Hubble data, using the new, more accurate, stellar atmospheric parameters calculated in this work. Our analysis suggests that BD+44°493 is a low-mass (0.83 M ⊙ ), old (12.1–13.2 Gyr) second-generation star likely formed from a gas cloud enriched by a single metal-free 20.5 M ⊙ Population III star in the early Universe. With a disk-like orbit, BD+44°493 does not appear to be associated with any major merger event in the early history of the Milky Way. From the precision radial-velocity NEID measurements (median absolute deviation = 16 m s –1 ), we were able to constrain companion planetary masses around BD+44°493 and rule out the presence of planets as small as $m\sin i=2$ M J out to periods of 100 days. This study opens a new avenue of exploration for the intersection between stellar archaeology and exoplanet science using NEID.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamical structure factors of warm dense matter from time-dependent orbital-free and mixed-stochastic-deterministic density functional theory

Abstract We present the first calculations of the inelastic part of the dynamical structure factor (DSF) for warm dense matter (WDM) using time-dependent orbital-free density functional theory (TD-OF-DFT) and mixed-stochastic-deterministic (mixed) Kohn Sham TD-DFT (KS TD-DFT). WDM is an intermediate phase of matter found in planetary cores and laser-driven experiments, where the accurate calculation of the DSF is critical for interpreting x-ray Thomson scattering measurements. Traditional TD-DFT methods, while highly accurate, are computationally expensive, motivating the exploration of TD-OF-DFT and mixed TD-KS-DFT as more efficient alternatives. We applied these methods to experimentally measured WDM systems, including solid-density aluminum and beryllium, compressed beryllium, and carbon–hydrogen mixtures. Our results show that TD-OF-DFT requires a dynamical kinetic energy potential in order to qualitatively capture the plasmon response. Additionally, it struggles with capturing bound electron contributions. In contrast, mixed TD-KS-DFT offers greater accuracy in distinguishing bound and free electron effects, aligning well with experimental data, though at a higher computational cost. This study highlights the trade-offs between computational efficiency and accuracy, demonstrating that TD-OF-DFT remains a valuable tool for rapid scans of parameter space, while mixed TD-KS-DFT should be preferred for high-fidelity simulations. Our findings provide insight into the future development of DFT methods for WDM and suggest potential improvements for TD-OF-DFT.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the chemical dynamics of phenanthrene (C 14 H 10 ) formation via the bimolecular gas-phase reaction of the phenylethynyl radical (C 6 H 5 CC) with benzene (C 6 H 6 )

The exploration of the fundamental formation mechanisms of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is crucial for the understanding of molecular mass growth processes leading to two- and three-dimensional carbonaceous nanostructures (nanosheets, graphenes, nanotubes, buckyballs) in extraterrestrial environments (circumstellar envelopes, planetary nebulae, molecular clouds) and combustion systems. While key studies have been conducted exploiting traditional, high-temperature mechanisms such as the hydrogen abstraction–acetylene addition (HACA) and phenyl addition–dehydrocyclization (PAC) pathways, the complexity of extreme environments highlights the necessity of investigating chemically diverse mass growth reaction mechanisms leading to PAHs. Employing the crossed molecular beams technique coupled with electronic structure calculations, we report on the gas-phase synthesis of phenanthrene (C 14 H 10 )—a three-ring, 14π benzenoid PAH—via a phenylethynyl addition–cyclization–aromatization mechanism, featuring bimolecular reactions of the phenylethynyl radical (C 6 H 5 CC, X 2 A 1 ) with benzene (C 6 H 6 ) under single collision conditions. The dynamics involve a phenylethynyl radical addition to benzene without entrance barrier leading eventually to phenanthrene via indirect scattering dynamics through C 14 H 11 intermediates. The barrierless nature of reaction allows rapid access to phenanthrene in low-temperature environments such as cold molecular clouds which can reach temperatures as low as 10 K. Furthermore, this mechanism constitutes a unique, low-temperature framework for the formation of PAHs as building blocks in molecular mass growth processes to carbonaceous nanostructures in extraterrestrial environments thus affording critical insight into the low-temperature hydrocarbon chemistry in our universe.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Open Benchmark of One Million High-Fidelity Cislunar Trajectories

Cislunar space spans from geosynchronous altitudes to beyond the Moon and will underpin future exploration, science, and security operations. We describe and release an open dataset of one million numerically propagated cislunar trajectories generated with the open-source Space Situational Awareness Python package (SSAPy). The model includes high-degree Earth/Moon gravity, solar gravity, and Earth/Sun radiation pressure; other planetary gravities are omitted by design for computational efficiency. Initial conditions uniformly sample commonly used osculating-element ranges, and each trajectory is propagated for up to six years under a single, fixed start epoch. The dataset is intended as a reusable benchmark for method development (e.g., space domain awareness, navigation, and machine-learning pipelines), a reference library for statistical studies of orbit families, and a starting point for community-driven extensions (e.g., alternative epochs). We report empirically observed stability trends (e.g., a band near ~5 GEO and persistence of some co-orbital classes including L4/L5 librators) as dataset descriptors rather than new dynamical results. The chief contribution is the scale, fidelity, organization (CSV/HDF5 with full state time series and metadata), and open availability, which together lower the barrier to comparative and data-driven studies in the cislunar regime.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Atmospheric Processes in Earth System Models and Quantifying Uncertainties With Deep Learning Multi‐Member and Stochastic Parameterizations

Abstract Deep learning is a powerful tool to represent subgrid processes in climate models, but many application cases have so far used idealized settings and deterministic approaches. Here, we develop stochastic parameterizations with calibrated uncertainty quantification to learn subgrid convective and turbulent processes and surface radiative fluxes of a superparameterization embedded in an Earth System Model (ESM). We explore three methods to construct stochastic parameterizations: (a) a single Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Monte Carlo Dropout; (b) a multi‐member parameterization; and (c) a Variational Encoder Decoder with latent space perturbation. We show that the multi‐member parameterization improves the representation of convective processes, especially in the planetary boundary layer, compared to individual DNNs. The respective uncertainty quantification illustrates that methods (b) and (c) are advantageous compared to a dropout‐based DNN parameterization regarding the spread of convective processes. Hybrid simulations with our best‐performing multi‐member parameterizations remained challenging and crash within the first days. Therefore, we develop a pragmatic partial coupling strategy relying on the superparameterization for condensate emulation. Partial coupling reduces the computational efficiency of hybrid Earth‐like simulations but enables model stability over 5 months with our multi‐member parameterizations. However, our hybrid simulations exhibit biases in thermodynamic fields and differences in precipitation patterns. Despite this, the multi‐member parameterizations enable improvements in reproducing tropical extreme precipitation compared to a traditional convection parameterization. Despite these challenges, our results indicate the potential of a new generation of multi‐member machine learning parameterizations leveraging uncertainty quantification to improve the representation of stochasticity of subgrid effects.

Behrens, Gunnar [Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und R↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermally induced structural competitiveness and metastability of body-centered-cubic iron under nonequilibrium conditions

The structure and stability of iron near melting at multi-megabar pressures are of significant interest in high pressure physics and earth and planetary sciences. While the body-centered cubic (BCC) phase is generally recognized as unstable at lower temperatures, its stability relative to the hexagonal close-packed (HCP) phase at high temperatures (approximately 0.5 eV) in the Earth’s inner core (IC) remains a topic of ongoing theoretical and experimental debate. Motivated by a series of studies attempting to understand the state of the IC and resulting in contradictory findings, we aim to explore the physical factors that may contribute to this confusion in a broader context. Our ab initio calculations show a significant drop in energy, the emergence of a plateau and a local minimum in the potential energy surface, and stabilization of all phonon modes of BCC iron at elevated electron temperatures (>1–1.5 eV). These effects increase the competition among the BCC, HCP, and the face-centered cubic (FCC) phases and lead to the metastability of the BCC structure. Furthermore, at pressure-temperature conditions relevant to the IC, we can expect substantial coexistence of FCC and HCP iron due to their similar free energies and low transition barrier (∼0.2 eV/atom), and the thermodynamic stability of BCC iron is enhanced by its substantial lattice vibration entropy. In conclusion, these findings provide a clear theoretical framework for understanding iron phase relations and solidification processes, both experimentally and in the IC.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗