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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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10 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Geodynamically corrected Pliocene shoreline elevations in Australia consistent with midrange projections of Antarctic ice loss

The Mid-Pliocene represents the most recent interval in Earth history with climatic conditions similar to those expected in the coming decades. Mid-Pliocene sea level estimates therefore provide important constraints on projections of future ice sheet behavior and sea level change but differ by tens of meters due to local distortion of paleoshorelines caused by mantle dynamics. We combine an Australian sea level marker compilation with geodynamic simulations and probabilistic inversions to quantify and remove these post-Pliocene vertical motions at continental scale. Dynamic topography accounts for most of the observed sea level marker deflection, and correcting for this effect and glacial isostatic adjustment yields a Mid-Pliocene global mean sea level of +16.0 (+10.4 to +21.5) m (50th/16th to 84th percentiles). Recalibration of recent high-end sea level projections using this revised estimate implies a more stable Antarctic Ice Sheet under future warming scenarios, consistent with midrange forecasts of sea level rise that do not incorporate a marine ice cliff instability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric CO 2 estimates for the Miocene to Pleistocene based on foraminiferal $δ^{11}$B at Ocean Drilling Program Sites 806 and 807 in the Western Equatorial Pacific

Constraints on the evolution of atmospheric CO 2 levels throughout Earth's history are foundational to our understanding of past variations in climate. Despite considerable effort, records vary in their temporal and spatial coverage and estimates of past CO 2 levels do not always converge, and therefore new records and proxies are valuable. Here we reconstruct atmospheric CO 2 values across major climate transitions over the past 16 million years using the boron isotopic composition (δ 11 B) of planktic foraminifera from 89 samples obtained from two sites in the West Pacific Warm Pool, Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Sites 806 and 807, measured using high-precision multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. We compare our results to published data from ODP Site 872, also in the Western Equatorial Pacific, that goes back to 22 million years ago. These sites are in a region that today is near equilibrium with the atmosphere and are thought to have been in equilibrium with the atmosphere for the interval studied. We show that δ 11 B data from this region are consistent with other boron-based studies. The data show evidence for elevated pCO 2 during the Middle Miocene and Early to Middle Pliocene, and reductions in pCO 2 of ~200 ppm during the Middle Miocene Climate Transition, ~250 ppm during Pliocene Glacial Intensification and ~50 ppm during the Mid-Pleistocene Climate Transition. During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition there is a minimum pCO 2 at marine isotopic stage (MIS) 30. Our results are consistent with a coupling between pCO 2 , temperature and ice sheet expansion from the Miocene to the late Quaternary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Alpine permafrost could account for a quarter of thawed carbon based on Plio-Pleistocene paleoclimate analogue

Estimates of the permafrost-climate feedback vary in magnitude and sign, partly because permafrost carbon stability in warmer-than-present conditions is not well constrained. Here we use a Plio-Pleistocene lacustrine reconstruction of mean annual air temperature (MAAT) from the Tibetan Plateau, the largest alpine permafrost region on the Earth, to constrain past and future changes in permafrost carbon storage. Clumped isotope-temperatures (Δ 47 -T) indicate warmer MAAT (~1.2 °C) prior to 2.7 Ma, and support a permafrost-free environment on the northern Tibetan Plateau in a warmer-than-present climate. Δ 47 -T indicate ~8.1 °C cooling from 2.7 Ma, coincident with Northern Hemisphere glacial intensification. Combined with climate models and global permafrost distribution, these results indicate, under conditions similar to mid-Pliocene Warm period (3.3–3.0 Ma), ~60% of alpine permafrost containing ~85 petagrams of carbon may be vulnerable to thawing compared to ~20% of circumarctic permafrost. This estimate highlights ~25% of permafrost carbon and the permafrost-climate feedback could originate in alpine areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A 2-million-year-old ecosystem in Greenland uncovered by environmental DNA

Late Pliocene and Early Pleistocene epochs 3.6 to 0.8 million years ago had climates resembling those forecasted under future warming. Palaeoclimatic records show strong polar amplification with mean annual temperatures of 11–19 °C above contemporary values. The biological communities inhabiting the Arctic during this time remain poorly known because fossils are rare. Here we report an ancient environmental DNA (eDNA) record describing the rich plant and animal assemblages of the Kap København Formation in North Greenland, dated to around two million years ago. The record shows an open boreal forest ecosystem with mixed vegetation of poplar, birch and thuja trees, as well as a variety of Arctic and boreal shrubs and herbs, many of which had not previously been detected at the site from macrofossil and pollen records. The DNA record confirms the presence of hare and mitochondrial DNA from animals including mastodons, reindeer, rodents and geese, all ancestral to their present-day and late Pleistocene relatives. The presence of marine species including horseshoe crab and green algae support a warmer climate than today. The reconstructed ecosystem has no modern analogue. The survival of such ancient eDNA probably relates to its binding to mineral surfaces. Our findings open new areas of genetic research, demonstrating that it is possible to track the ecology and evolution of biological communities from two million years ago using ancient eDNA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

East Antarctic Ice Sheet variability in the central Transantarctic Mountains since the mid Miocene

The response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to warmer-than-present climate conditions has direct implications for projections of future sea level, ocean circulation, and global radiative forcing. Nonetheless, it remains uncertain whether the ice sheet is likely to undergo net loss due to amplified melting coupled with dynamic instabilities or whether such losses will be balanced, or even offset, by enhanced accumulation under a higher-precipitation regime. The glacial depositional record from the central Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) provides a robust geologic means to reconstruct the past behaviour of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, including during periods thought to have been warmer than today, such as the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~3.3–3.0 Ma). This study describes a new surface-exposure-dated moraine record from Otway Massif in the central TAM spanning the last ~9 Myr and synthesises these data in the context of previously published moraine chronologies constrained with cosmogenic nuclides. The resulting record, although fragmentary, represents the majority of direct and unambiguous terrestrial evidence for the existence and size of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet during the last 14 Myr, and it thus provides new insight into the long-term relationship between the ice sheet and global climate. At face value, the existing TAM moraine record does not exhibit a clear signature of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, thus precluding a definitive verdict on the East Antarctic Ice Sheet's response to this event. In contrast, an apparent hiatus in moraine deposition both at Otway Massif and the neighbouring Roberts Massif suggests that the ice sheet surface in the central TAM was potentially lower than present during the late Miocene and earliest Pliocene.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Mystery of Baselevel Controls in the Incision History of the Central Colorado Plateau

Erosion can remain active and changing in landscapes long after tectonic drivers have ceased, potentially due to local-geologic controls, climate changes, or geodynamics. We present new fluvial incision-rate histories and terrain analyses of the Colorado River system through the central Colorado Plateau to understand what has caused the variable erosion across this post-orogenic landscape. Results from new cosmogenic and luminescence dating of fluvial terrace and upland gravel deposits in Glen and Meander Canyons establish incision-rate histories that are marked by an Early-Middle Pleistocene erosion hiatus, followed by ~200 m of rapid incision over the last ~350 kyr. Projection of fluvial topography from above knickzones of the Colorado River drainage system roughly agree with the observed magnitude of recent incision and reflect a common baselevel fall from Pliocene river integration through Grand Canyon, which is still propagating through the drainage. A response-time model indicates that baselevel fall from integration likely took 2–4 Myr to reach the central Colorado Plateau and 100s kyr to travel across the study area, potentially accounting for incision rate changes in the fluvial terrace records of Meander and Glen Canyons. The upstream-migrating incision has likely been partitioned into multiple waves across the landscape due to the local geologic controls of lava damming, salt tectonics, and heterogenous bedrock. As baselevel fall from Pliocene Colorado River integration diffuses upstream, it can only account for perhaps a quarter of the total ~2 km of exhumation in the central Colorado Plateau, demanding an unknown driver for significant erosion in the Pliocene.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Episodes of Early Pleistocene West Antarctic Ice Sheet Retreat Recorded by Iceberg Alley Sediments

Abstract Ice loss in the Southern Hemisphere has been greatest over the past 30 years in West Antarctica. The high sensitivity of this region to climate change has motivated geologists to examine marine sedimentary records for evidence of past episodes of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) instability. Sediments accumulating in the Scotia Sea are useful to examine for this purpose because they receive iceberg‐rafted debris (IBRD) sourced from the Pacific‐ and Atlantic‐facing sectors of West Antarctica. Here we report on the sedimentology and provenance of the oldest of three cm‐scale coarse‐grained layers recovered from this sea at International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1538. These layers are preserved in opal‐rich sediments deposited ∼1.2 Ma during a relatively warm regional climate. Our microCT‐based analysis of the layer's in‐situ fabric confirms its ice‐rafted origin. We further infer that it is the product of an intense but short‐lived episode of IBRD deposition. Based on the petrography of its sand fraction and the Phanerozoic 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages of hornblende and mica it contains, we conclude that the IBRD it contains was likely sourced from the Weddell Sea and/or Amundsen Sea embayment(s) of West Antarctica. We attribute the high concentrations of IBRD in these layers to “dirty” icebergs calved from the WAIS following its retreat inland from its modern grounding line. These layers also sit at the top of a ∼366‐m thick Pliocene and early Pleistocene sequence that is much more dropstone‐rich than its overlying sediments. We speculate this fact may reflect that WAIS mass‐balance was highly dynamic during the ∼41‐kyr (inter)glacial world.

Bailey, Ian↗
DOE OSTI2020

A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet

We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past climate forcings. Triggering such a threshold response through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions would drive drastic and potentially fast sea level rise with important implications for coastal flood risks. Previous studies have combined information from ice sheet models and observations to calibrate model parameters. These studies have broken important new ground but have either adopted simple ice sheet models or have limited the number of parameters to allow for the use of more complex models. These limitations are largely due to the computational challenges posed by calibration as models become more computationally intensive or when the number of parameters increases. Here, we propose a method to alleviate this problem: a fast sequential Monte Carlo method that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high-performance computing systems. We use simulated examples to demonstrate how our sample-based approach provides accurate approximations to the posterior distributions of the calibrated parameters. The drastic reduction in computational times enables us to provide new insights into important scientific questions, for example, the impact of Pliocene era data and prior parameter information on sea level projections. These studies would be computationally prohibitive with other computational approaches for calibration such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or emulation-based methods. We also find considerable differences in the distributions of sea level projections when we account for a larger number of uncertain parameters. For example, based on the same ice sheet model and data set, the 99th percentile of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in 2300 increases from 6.5 m to 13.1 m when we increase the number of calibrated parameters from three to 11. With previous calibration methods, it would be challenging to go beyond five parameters. Here, this work provides an important next step toward improving the uncertainty quantification of complex, computationally intensive and decision-relevant models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Early-to-mid Miocene erosion rates inferred from pre-Dead Sea rift Hazeva River fluvial chert pebbles using cosmogenic 21 Ne

In this work, we utilize a novel application of cosmogenic 21 Ne measurements in chert to compare exposure times measured in eroding surfaces in the central Jordanian Plateau with exposure times from chert pebbles transported by the Miocene Hazeva River. The Miocene Hazeva River was a large fluvial system (estimated catchment size > 100 000 km 2 ) that drained the Arabian Plateau and Sinai Peninsula into the Mediterranean Sea during the early-to-mid Miocene. It was established after the rifting of the Red Sea uplifted the Arabian Plateau during the Oligocene. Following late-Miocene-to-early-Pliocene subsidence along the Dead Sea rift, the Hazeva drainage system was abandoned and dissected, resulting in new drainage divides on either side of the rift. We find modern erosion rates derived from cosmogenic 21 Ne, 26 Al, and 10Be in exposed in situ chert nodules to be extremely slow (between 2–4 mm kyr -1 ). Comparison between modern and paleo-erosion rates, measured in chert pebbles, is not straightforward, as cosmogenic 21 Ne was acquired partly during bedrock erosion and partly during transport of these pebbles in the Hazeva River. However, 21 Ne exposure times calculated in Miocene cherts are generally shorter (ranging between $0^{+59}_{-0}$ and 242±113 kyr) compared to exposure times calculated in the currently eroding chert nodules presented here (269±49 and 378±76 kyr) and other chert surfaces currently eroding in hyperarid environments. Miocene exposure times are shorter even when considering that they account for bedrock erosion in addition to maintained transport along this large river. Shorter exposure times in Miocene cherts correspond to faster paleo-erosion rates, which we attribute to a combination of continuous surface uplift and significantly wetter climatic conditions during the early-to-mid Miocene.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Clumped isotope thermometry of modern and fossil snail shells from the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau: Implications for paleoclimate and paleoelevation reconstructions

Carbonate clumped isotope thermometry has been applied to fossil mollusk shells from Tibet to reconstruct the paleoclimate and paleoelevation of the region. However, inferred paleoelevation and climatic conditions from this proxy are inconsistent with paleontological evidence. Here, we report new clumped isotope data from both modern and fossil (5–4 Ma) freshwater mollusk shells with the results of X-ray diffraction (XRD) analyses of fossil shells from the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau. Although all of the fossil shells analyzed in this study appeared pristine based on visual inspection, XRD data reveal that more than half of these apparently “pristine” fossil shells contain trace amounts of calcite. Clumped isotope temperatures derived from the fossil shells display a large range of variation (>22 °C). Among the fossil shells analyzed, those containing traces of calcite have yielded temperatures that are on average ~10 °C lower than those with no detectable calcite from the same strata. These observations suggest that clumped isotope alteration can occur in aragonite shells in low-temperature environments and even in shells with no visible signs of alteration that contain only traces of calcite. The temperatures derived from fossil shells with no detectable calcite are on average 4 °C higher than those derived from modern shells, indicating that southwest Tibet was warmer 4–5 Ma than today. After accounting for temperature change due to global cooling, the difference in clumped isotope temperatures between pristine fossil shells and modern shells suggests that the paleoelevation of the southwestern Tibetan Plateau in the Pliocene was similar to its present-day elevation.

Geology↗