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DOE OSTI2025

A worldwide aerosol phenomenology: Elemental and organic carbon in PM 2.5 and PM 10

Elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and particulate matter (PM) concentrations in the inhalable (PM 10 ) and fine (PM 2.5 ) size fractions are measured worldwide, albeit with different analytical methods. These measurements from many researchers were collected and analyzed for Africa, America, Asia, and Europe for 2012–2019. EC/PM, OC/PM, and OC/EC ratios were examined based on region, site type, and season to infer potential sources and impacts. These analyses demonstrate that carbonaceous materials are important PM constituents throughout the world. Mean EC/PM ratios were lowest in PM 10 in Sahelian Africa and Europe (∼0.01), highest (>0.07) in PM 2.5 at urban sites in North America, South America, and Japan. Mean OC/PM ratios were lowest in PM 10 in the Sahel (∼0.06) and in PM 2.5 in China and Thailand (0.10), and highest in central and eastern Europe (∼0.3) and North America (∼0.4). OC/EC ratios were elevated in western and northern Europe, and at regional background sites in North America. EC/PM increased with PM 10 in Thailand, while OC/PM increased with higher PM mass in Thailand, India, and North America, highlighting the specific contribution of carbonaceous aerosols to PM pollution in these regions. At European and North American background sites, OC/EC ratios increased with PM mass. Higher OC/EC ratios in dry periods indicate influence of wildfires, prescribed burns, and secondary aerosol formation. Elevated wintertime EC/PM ratios coincide with residential heating in temperate climate zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impacts of Improved Process Representation of Particle Dry Deposition on PM Pollution in a Global Chemistry-Climate Model: Differences Across Regions, Seasons, and PM Sizes

Dry deposition (DD) is a primary removal pathway of particulate matter (PM). The aerosol DD schemes in most global models do not reflect current mechanistic understanding gleaned from observations. The NASA GISS global chemistry-climate model has a new and more dynamic DD scheme that largely captures observed changes in deposition velocities with particle size. We quantify the response of simulated PM to changes in the DD scheme for the Northeast US, Central Europe, North China Plain, and Punjab. Relative to the widely used old scheme, the new scheme shows higher annual PM2.5 for all regions (up to +14%) except C. Europe where there are very small decreases. For PM1, annual increases occur over all regions (up to +20%). For PM10, there are decreases in C. Europe (-8%) and very small decreases in the NE US yet increases (up to +12%) in Punjab and N. China Plain. While there are always increases across seasons for Punjab and N. China Plain, there are both seasonal increases and decreases for the NE US and C. Europe. Given incomplete understanding of observed variations in deposition velocities for a given particle size, we perform sensitivity simulations that perturb the magnitude of the deposition velocities simulated by the new scheme. The annual PM response to increasing DD is similar in magnitude to decreasing DD, implying linearity in the PM sensitivity to DD. The relative annual response to perturbing the DD magnitude is weaker over Punjab and sometimes N. China Plain than the NE US and C. Europe. Higher PM over Punjab and N. China Plain implies a stronger sensitivity to DD when aerosol abundances are low. More mechanistic representation of aerosol DD can sometimes improve or worsen existing model PM biases, which suggests that PM biases due to other processes can be confounded or compounded by biases in DD. Further improvements to DD parameterizations require not only more observational constraints on aerosol deposition velocities but also an advanced understanding of the processes controlling observed variability.

Environmental pollution↗

DOE OSTI2022

Measurement of the energy response of the ATLAS calorimeter to charged pions from $W^{\pm }\rightarrow \tau ^{\pm }(\rightarrow \pi ^{\pm }\nu _{\tau })\nu _{\tau }$ events in Run 2 data

The energy response of the ATLAS calorimeter is measured for single charged pions with transverse momentum in the range 10 < p T < 300 GeV. The measurement is performed using 139 fb –1 of LHC proton–proton collision data at √s = 13 TeV taken in Run 2 by the ATLAS detector. Charged pions originating from τ-lepton decays are used to provide a sample of high-p T isolated particles, where the composition is known, to test an energy regime that has not previously been probed by in situ single-particle measurements. The calorimeter response to single-pions is observed to be overestimated by ~2% across a large part of the p T spectrum in the central region and underestimated by ~4% in the endcaps in the ATLAS simulation. The uncertainties in the measurements are ≲1% for 15 < p T < 185 GeV in the central region. To investigate the source of the discrepancies, the width of the distribution of the ratio of calorimeter energy to track momentum, the energies per layer and response in the hadronic calorimeter are also compared between data and simulation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measurements of $\pi ^\pm $, $K^\pm $, p and $\bar{p}$ spectra in $^7$Be+$^9$Be collisions at beam momenta from 19A to 150A ${\mathrm{Ge} \mathrm{V}}\!/\!c$ with the NA61/SHINE spectrometer at the CERN SPS

The NA61/SHINE experiment at the CERN Super Proton Synchrotron (SPS) studies the onset of deconfinement in hadron matter by a scan of particle production in collisions of nuclei with various sizes at a set of energies covering the SPS energy range. This paper presents results on inclusive double-differential spectra, transverse momentum and rapidity distributions and mean multiplicities of $\pi^, \pm K^\pm$ p and $\bar{p}$ produced in the 20% most central Be+$^9$ Be collisions at beam momenta of 19A, 30A, 40A, 75A and 150A ${\mathrm{Ge} \mathrm{V}}\!/\!c$. The energy dependence of the $K^\pm/ \pi^\pm$ ratios as well as of inverse slope parameters of the $K^\pm$ transverse mass distributions are close to those found in inelastic $p+p$ reactions. The new results are compared to the world data on $p+p and Pb+Pb collisions as well as to predictions of the Epos , U r qmd , Ampt , Phsd and Smash models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurements of $\pi ^\pm $, $K^\pm $, p and $\bar{p}$ spectra in $^{40}\hbox {Ar+}^{45}\hbox {Sc}$ collisions at 13A to 150A $\text{ Ge }\hspace{-1.00006pt}\text{ V }\!/\!c$

The NA61/SHINE experiment at the CERN Super Proton Synchrotron studies the onset of deconfinement in strongly interacting matter through a beam energy scan of particle production in collisions of nuclei of varied sizes. This paper presents results on inclusive double-differential spectra, transverse momentum and rapidity distributions and mean multiplicities of $\pi ^\pm $, $K^\pm $, p and $\bar{p}$ produced in $^{40}\hbox {Ar+}^{45}\hbox {Sc}$ collisions at beam momenta of 13A, 19A, 30A, 40A, 75A and 150A $\text{ Ge }\hspace{-1.00006pt}\text{ V }\!/\!c$. The analysis uses the 10% most central collisions, where the observed forward energy defines centrality. The energy dependence of the $K^\pm $/$\pi ^\pm $ ratios as well as of inverse slope parameters of the $K^\pm $ transverse mass distributions are placed in between those found in inelastic $p+p$ and central Pb + Pb collisions. The results obtained here establish a system-size dependence of hadron production properties that so far cannot be explained either within statistical or dynamical models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Search for a light charged Higgs boson in $t \rightarrow H^{\pm } b$ decays, with $H^{\pm } \rightarrow cs$, in $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}={13}\hbox { TeV}$ with the ATLAS detector

A search for a light charged Higgs boson produced in decays of the top quark, $t \rightarrow H^{\pm } b$ with $H^{\pm } \rightarrow cs$, is presented. This search targets the production of top-quark pairs $t\bar{t} \rightarrow WbH^{\pm } b$, with $W \rightarrow ℓv(ℓ = e, μ)$, resulting in a lepton-plus-jets final state characterised by an isolated electron or muon and at least four jets. The search exploits b-quark and c-quark identification techniques as well as multivariate methods to suppress the dominant $t\bar{t}$ background. The data analysed correspond to 140 fb -1 of $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC between 2015 and 2018. Observed (expected) 95% confidence-level upper limits on the branching fraction $\mathscr{B}(t \rightarrow H^{\pm } b)$, assuming $\mathscr{B}(t \rightarrow Wb) + \mathscr{B}(t \rightarrow H^{\pm }(\rightarrow cs)b$, are set between 0.066% (0.077%) and 3.6% (2.3%) for a charged Higgs boson with a mass between 60 and 168 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2003

Simulation, Model Verification and Controls Development of Brayton Cycle PM Alternator: Testing and Simulation of 2 KW PM Generator with Diode Bridge Output

Professor Stankovic will be developing and refining Simulink based models of the PM alternator and comparing the simulation results with experimental measurements taken from the unit. Her first task is to validate the models using the experimental data. Her next task is to develop alternative control techniques for the application of the Brayton Cycle PM Alternator in a nuclear electric propulsion vehicle. The control techniques will be first simulated using the validated models then tried experimentally with hardware available at NASA. Testing and simulation of a 2KW PM synchronous generator with diode bridge output is described. The parameters of a synchronous PM generator have been measured and used in simulation. Test procedures have been developed to verify the PM generator model with diode bridge output. Experimental and simulation results are in excellent agreement.

Anna V Stankovic↗

DOE OSTI2024

Light quark loops in ${K}^{\pm}\to {\pi}^{\pm}\nu \overline{\nu}$ from vector meson dominance and update on the Kaon Unitarity Triangle

We use vector meson dominance to calculate non-perturbative contributions to the branching ratio of the rare decay $K$ ± → π ± $v\overline{v}$ stemming from matrix elements involving up-quark loops. The importance of this observable as well as of K 0 → π 0 l + l - and of the direct CP violation parameter ϵ' K is then discussed in the context of a Unitarity Triangle sqtudy based on Kaon sector observables only.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Materials Data on Pm by Materials Project

Pm is alpha Samarium structured and crystallizes in the trigonal R-3m space group. The structure is three-dimensional. there are eight inequivalent Pm sites. In the first Pm site, Pm is bonded to twelve Pm atoms to form a mixture of edge, face, and corner-sharing PmPm12 cuboctahedra. There are six shorter (3.65 Å) and six longer (3.67 Å) Pm–Pm bond lengths. In the second Pm site, Pm is bonded to twelve Pm atoms to form a mixture of edge, face, and corner-sharing PmPm12 cuboctahedra. There are a spread of Pm–Pm bond distances ranging from 3.65–3.68 Å. In the third Pm site, Pm is bonded to twelve Pm atoms to form a mixture of edge, face, and corner-sharing PmPm12 cuboctahedra. All Pm–Pm bond lengths are 3.67 Å. In the fourth Pm site, Pm is bonded to twelve Pm atoms to form a mixture of edge, face, and corner-sharing PmPm12 cuboctahedra. There are six shorter (3.65 Å) and six longer (3.67 Å) Pm–Pm bond lengths. In the fifth Pm site, Pm is bonded to twelve Pm atoms to form a mixture of edge, face, and corner-sharing PmPm12 cuboctahedra. There are six shorter (3.67 Å) and three longer (3.68 Å) Pm–Pm bond lengths. In the sixth Pm site, Pm is bonded to sixteen Pm atoms to form a mixture of edge, face, and corner-sharing PmPm16 cuboctahedra. There are a spread of Pm–Pm bond distances ranging from 3.67–7.34 Å. In the seventh Pm site, Pm is bonded to twelve Pm atoms to form a mixture of edge, face, and corner-sharing PmPm12 cuboctahedra. There are six shorter (3.67 Å) and three longer (3.68 Å) Pm–Pm bond lengths. In the eighth Pm site, Pm is bonded to twelve Pm atoms to form a mixture of edge, face, and corner-sharing PmPm12 cuboctahedra. There are three shorter (3.65 Å) and six longer (3.67 Å) Pm–Pm bond lengths.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Increased importance of aerosol–cloud interactions for surface PM 2.5 pollution relative to aerosol–radiation interactions in China with the anthropogenic emission reductions

Surface fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution can be enhanced by feedback processes induced by aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). Many previous studies have reported enhanced PM 2.5 concentrations induced by ARIs and ACIs for episodic events in China. However, few studies have examined the changes in the ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancements over a long period, though the anthropogenic emissions have changed substantially in the last decade. In this study, we quantify the ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 changes for 2013–2021 under different meteorology and emission scenarios using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), and we investigate the driving factors behind the changes. Our results show that, in January 2013, when China suffered from the worst PM 2.5 pollution, the PM 2.5 enhancement induced by ARIs in eastern China (5.59 µg m −3 ) was larger than that induced by ACIs (3.96 µg m −3 ). However, the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement showed a significantly smaller decrease ratio (51 %) than the ARI-induced enhancement (75 %) for 2013–2021, making ACIs more important for enhancing PM 2.5 concentrations in January 2021. Our analyses suggest that the anthropogenic emission reductions played a key role in this shift. Owing to only anthropogenic emission reductions, the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement decreased by 43 % in January, which was lower than the decrease ratio of the ARI-induced enhancement (57 %). The relative change in ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement in July was similar to the pattern observed in January, caused by anthropogenic emission reductions. The primary reason for this phenomenon is that the decrease in ambient PM 2.5 for 2013–2021 caused a disproportionately small decrease in the liquid water path (LWP) and an increase in the cloud effective radius (Re) under the condition of high PM 2.5 concentrations. Therefore, the surface solar radiation attenuation (and, hence, the boundary layer height reduction) caused by ACIs decreased slower than that caused by ARIs. Moreover, the lower decrease ratio of the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement was dominated by the lower decrease ratio of ACI-induced secondary PM 2.5 component enhancement, which was additionally caused by the smaller decrease ratio of the air temperature reduction and the relative humidity (RH) increase. Our findings indicate that, with the decrease in ambient PM 2.5 , the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement inevitably becomes more important. This needs to be considered in the formulation of control policies to meet the national PM 2.5 air quality standard.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Materials Data on Pm by Materials Project

Pm is alpha La structured and crystallizes in the hexagonal P6_3/mmc space group. The structure is three-dimensional. there are two inequivalent Pm sites. In the first Pm site, Pm is bonded to twelve Pm atoms to form a mixture of edge, face, and corner-sharing PmPm12 cuboctahedra. There are six shorter (3.64 Å) and six longer (3.68 Å) Pm–Pm bond lengths. In the second Pm site, Pm is bonded to twelve Pm atoms to form a mixture of edge, face, and corner-sharing PmPm12 cuboctahedra. All Pm–Pm bond lengths are 3.68 Å.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2022

Global Premature Mortality By Dust and Pollution PM 2.5 Estimated From Aerosol Reanalysis of the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2

This study quantifies global premature deaths attributable to long-term exposure of ambient PM 2.5 , or PM 2.5 -attributable mortality, by dust and pollution sources. We used NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol reanalysis product for PM 2.5 and the cause-specific relative risk (RR) from the integrated exposure-response (IER) model to estimate global PM2.5-attributable mortality for five causes of deaths, namely ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CEV) or stroke, lung cancer (LC), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI). The estimated yearly global PM 2.5 -attributable mortality in 2019 amounts to 2.89 (1.38–4.48) millions, which is composed of 1.19 (0.73–1.84) million from IHD, 1.01 (0.35–1.55) million from CEV, 0.29 (0.11–0.48) million from COPD, 0.23 (0.14–0.33) million from ALRI, and 0.17 (0.04–0.28) million from LC (the numbers in parentheses represent the estimated mortality range due corresponding to RR spread at the 95% confidence interval). The mortality counts vary with geopolitical regions substantially, with the highest number of deaths occurring in Asia. China and India account for 40% and 23% of the global PM 2.5 -attributable deaths, respectively. In terms of sources of PM 2.5 , about 22% of the global all-cause PM 2.5 -attributable deaths are caused by desert dust. The largest dust attribution is 37% for ALRI. The relative contributions of dust and pollution sources vary with the causes of deaths and geographical regions. Enforcing air pollution regulations to transfer areas from PM 2.5 nonattainment to PM2.5 attainment can have great health benefits. Being attainable with the United States air quality standard (AQS) of 15 μg/m 3 globally would have avoided nearly 40% or 1.2 million premature deaths. The most recent update of PM 2.5 guideline from 10 to 5 μg/m 3 by the World Health Organization (WHO) would potentially save additional one million lives. Our study highlights the importance of distinguishing aerodynamic size from geometric size in accurately assessing the global health burden of PM 2.5 and particularly for dust. A use of geometric size in diagnosing dust PM 2.5 from the model simulation, a common approach in current health burden assessment, could overestimate the PM 2.5 level in the dust belt by 40–170%, leading to an overestimate of global all-cause mortality by 1 million or 32%.

PM2.5↗

NASA NTRS2018

Impacts of Snow and Cloud Covers on Satellite-Derived PM 2.5 Levels

Satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been widely employed to evaluate ground fine particle (PM 2.5 ) levels, whereas snow/cloud covers often lead to a large proportion of non-random missing AOD. As a result, the fully covered and unbiased PM 2.5 estimates will be hard to generate. Among the current approaches to deal with the data gap issue, few have considered the cloud-AOD relationship and none of them have considered the snow-AOD relationship. This study examined the impacts of snow and cloud covers on AOD and PM 2.5 and made full-coverage PM 2.5 predictions with the consideration of these impacts. To estimate the missing AOD, daily gap-filling models with snow/cloud fractions and meteorological covariates were developed using the random forest algorithm. By using these models in New York State, a daily AOD data set with a 1-km resolution was generated with a complete coverage. The“out-of-bag” R 2 of the gap-filling models averaged 0.93 with an interquartile range from 0.90 to 0.95. Subsequently, a random forest-based PM 2.5 prediction model with the gap-filled AOD and covariates was built to predict fully covered PM 2.5 estimates. A ten-fold cross-validation for the prediction model showed a good performance with an R 2 of 0.82. In the gap-filling models, the snow fraction was of higher significance in the snow season compared with the rest of the year. The prediction models fitted with/without the snow fraction also suggested the discernible changes in PM 2.5 patterns, further confirming the significance of this parameter. Compared with the methods without considering snow and cloud covers, our PM 2.5 prediction surfaces showed more spatial details and reflected small-scale terrain-driven PM 2.5 patterns. The proposed methods can be generalized to the areas with extensive snow/cloud covers and large proportions of missing satellite AOD for predicting PM 2.5 levels with high resolutions and complete coverage.

AOD↗

DOE OSTI2022

PurpleAir Sensors as Effective Indicators of PM Exposure in Urban Areas

Particulate matter that is 2.5 microns or less in diameter (PM 2.5 ) is a biproduct of combustion reactions used for energy production. Populations that are exposed to consistently high levels of aerosolized PM 2.5 face serious health risks. This project compared low-cost PM 2.5 sensors with federally recognized methods to look for a cost-effective way to expand the air quality monitor network. Within metropolitan areas that face inconsistent spatial distribution of PM 2.5 , there may not be the necessary network density to indicate neighborhood-levels of PM 2.5 . This project aimed to examine the sensitivity of low-cost PM 2.5 sensor measurements on a neighborhood scale (< 4 km diameter) in an urban area to prevent citizens from being exposed to unsafe levels of PM 2.5 without their knowledge. Using publicly available sensor data from Livermore, CA and Bakersfield, CA, it was determined, based on the revealed patterns, that the analyzed low-cost sensors were able to display representative PM 2.5 levels for neighborhoodscale areas exposed to pollution from PM 2.5 sources.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

NASA NTRS2022

Present-Day and Future PM 2.5 and O 3 -Related Global and Regional Premature Mortality in the EVAv6.0 Health Impact Assessment Model

We used the EVAv6.0 system to estimate the present (2015) and future (2015–2050) global PM 2.5 and O 3 -related premature mortalities, using simulated surface concentrations from the GISS-E2.1-G Earth system model. The PM 2.5 -related global premature mortality is estimated to be 4.3 and 4.4 million by the non-linear and linear models, respectively. Ischemic heart diseases are found to be the leading cause of PM 2.5 -related premature deaths, contributing by 35% globally. Both long-term and short-term O 3 -related premature deaths are estimated to be around 1 million, globally. Overall, PM 2.5 and O 3 -related premature mortality leads to 5.3–5.4 million premature deaths, globally. The global burden of premature deaths is mainly driven by the Asian region, which in 2015 contributes by 75% of the total global premature deaths. An increase from 6.2% to 8% in the PM 2.5 relative risk as recommended by the WHO leads to an increase of PM 2.5 -related premature mortality by 28%, to 5.7 million. Finally, bias correcting the simulated PM 2.5 concentrations in 2015 leads to an increase of up to 73% in the global PM 2.5 -related premature mortality, leading to a total number of global premature deaths of up to 7.7 million, implying the necessity of bias correction to get more robust health burden estimates. PM 2.5 and O 3 -related premature mortality in 2050 decreases by up to 57% and 18%, respectively, due to emission reductions alone. However, the projected increase and aging of the population leads to increases of premature mortality by up to a factor of 2, showing that the population exposed to air pollution is more important than the level of air pollutants, highlighting that the population dynamics should be considered when setting up health assessment systems.

Premature mortality↗

NASA NTRS2023

Impacts of Estimated Plume Rise on PM 2.5 Exceedance Prediction During Extreme Wildfire Events: A Comparison of Three Schemes (Briggs, Freitas, and Sofiev)

Plume height plays a vital role in wildfire smoke dispersion and the subsequent effects on air quality and human health. In this study, we assess the impact of different plume rise schemes on predicting the dispersion of wildfire air pollution and the exceedances of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) during the 2020 western United States wildfire season. Three widely used plume rise schemes (Briggs, 1969; Freitas et al., 2007; Sofiev et al., 2012) are compared within the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling framework. The plume heights simulated by these schemes are comparable to the aerosol height observed by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). The performance of the simulations with these schemes varies by fire case and weather conditions. On average, simulations with higher plume injection heights predict lower aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface PM 2.5 concentrations near the source region but higher AOD and PM 2.5 in downwind regions due to the faster spread of the smoke plume once ejected. The 2-month mean AOD difference caused by different plume rise schemes is approximately 20 %–30 % near the source regions and 5 %–10 % in the downwind regions. Thick smoke blocks sunlight and suppresses photochemical reactions in areas with high AOD. The surface PM 2.5 difference reaches 70 % on the West Coast of the USA, and the difference is lower than 15 % in the downwind regions. Moreover, the plume injection height affects pollution exceedance (>35 µg m−3) predictions. Higher plume heights generally produce larger downwind PM 2.5 exceedance areas. The PM 2.5 exceedance areas predicted by the three schemes largely overlap, suggesting that all schemes perform similarly during large wildfire events when the predicted concentrations are well above the exceedance threshold. At the edges of the smoke plumes, however, there are noticeable differences in the PM 2.5 concentration and predicted PM 2.5 exceedance region. For the whole period of study, the difference in the total number of exceedance days could be as large as 20 d in northern California and 4 d in the downwind regions. This disagreement among the PM 2.5 exceedance forecasts may affect key decision-making regarding early warning of extreme air pollution episodes at local levels during large wildfire events.

Yunyao Li↗

NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of CMIP6 Model Simulations of PM 2.5 and its Components Over China

Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulate various components of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) as major climate forcers. Yet the model performance for PM 2.5 components remains little evaluated due in part to a lack of observational data. Here, we evaluate near-surface concentrations of PM 2.5 and its five main components over China as simulated by 14 CMIP6 models, including organic carbon (OC; available in 14 models), black carbon (BC; 14 models), sulfate (14 models), nitrate (4 models), and ammonium (5 models). For this purpose, we collect observational data between 2000 and 2014 from a satellite-based dataset for total PM2.5 and from 2469 measurement records in the literature for PM 2.5 components. Seven models output total PM 2.5 concentrations, and they all underestimate the observed total PM 2.5 over eastern China, with GFDL-ESM4 (−1.5 %) and MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM (−1.1 %) exhibiting the smallest biases averaged over the whole country. The other seven models, for which we recalculate total PM 2.5 from the available component output, underestimate the total PM 2.5 concentrations partly because of the missing model representations of nitrate and ammonium. Concentrations of the five individual components are underestimated in almost all models, except that sulfate is overestimated in MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM by 12.6 % and in MRI-ESM2-0 by 24.5 %. The underestimation is the largest for OC (by −71.2 % to −37.8 % across the 14 models) and the smallest for BC (−47.9 % to −12.1 %). The multi-model mean (MMM) reproduces the observed spatial pattern for OC (R = 0.51), sulfate (R = 0.57), nitrate (R = 0.70) and ammonium (R = 0.74) fairly well, yet the agreement is poorer for BC (R = 0.39). The varying performances of ESMs on total PM 2.5 and its components have important implications for the modeled magnitude and spatial pattern of aerosol radiative forcing.

CMIP6↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hourly PM 2.5 Estimates across California from 2018 to 2023

This study presents a new data set of hourly PM 2.5 concentrations across California from 2018 to 2023 at a three-kilometer resolution. This data set was developed by assimilating observations from PurpleAir and the U.S. EPA Air Quality System monitors into wildfire smoke forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Smoke (HRRR-Smoke) model using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Archived forecasts of modeled wildfire smoke PM 2.5 from HRRR-Smoke create the background field for assimilation, which is then corrected using surface observations of total PM 2.5 . The resulting reanalysis from GSI provides an estimate of total PM 2.5 that minimizes error from both the observational and the model data. Validation results indicate strong performance, with monthly R 2 values ranging from 0.73 to 0.91 across the six-year data set, comparable to other PM 2.5 data sets. Case studies are presented for three major fire events, the 2018 Camp Fire, 2019 Kincade Fire, and 2020 Lightning Complex Fires to demonstrate the data set’s fidelity in resolving plume dynamics and local exposure patterns. Root-mean-squared error averaged over each month scales with average PM 2.5 concentrations, resulting in a low error under typical conditions but higher absolute errors during extreme smoke events. This is the first long-term, hourly PM 2.5 data set of its kind for California and enables the generation of subdaily exposure metrics, such as peak hourly concentrations, exceedance durations, and time-of-day exposure peaks. The novelty and strong validation of this data set make it a compelling resource for future studies on the impact and significance of subdaily PM 2.5 exposure.

PM2.5↗