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At least 19 records

High-Resolution PM2.5 Concentrations Estimation Based on Stacked Ensemble Learning Model Using Multi-Source Satellite TOA Data

Nepal has experienced severe fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in recent years. However, few studies have focused on the distribution of PM2.5 and its variations in Nepal. Although many researchers have developed PM2.5 estimation models, these models have mainly focused on the kilometer scale, which cannot provide accurate spatial distribution of PM2.5 pollution. Based on Gaofen-1/6 and Landsat-8/9 satellite data, we developed a stacked ensemble learning model (named XGBLL) combined with meteorological data, ground PM2.5 concentrations, ground elevation, and population data. The model includes two layers: a XGBoost and Light GBM model in the first layer, and a linear regression model in the second layer. The accuracy of XGBLL model is better than that of a single model, and the fusion of multi-source satellite remote sensing data effectively improves the spatial coverage of PM2.5 concentrations. Besides, the spatial distribution of the daily mean PM2.5 concentrations in the Kathmandu region under different air conditions was analyzed. The validation results showed that the monthly averaged dataset was accurate (R2 = 0.80 and root mean square error = 7.07). In addition, compared to previous satellite PM2.5 datasets in Nepal, the dataset produced in this study achieved superior accuracy and spatial resolution.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Role of emission controls in reducing the 2050 climate change penalty for PM2.5 in China

Previous studies demonstrated that global warming can lead to deteriorated air quality even when anthropogenic emissions were kept constant, which has been called a climate change penalty on air quality. It is expected that anthropogenic emissions will decrease significantly in the future considering the aggressive emission control actions in China. However, the dependence of climate change penalty on the choice of emission scenario is still uncertain. To fill this gap, we conducted multiple independent model simulations to investigate the response of PM2.5 to future (2050) climate warming (RCP8.5) in China but with different emission scenarios, including the constant 2015 emissions, the 2050 CLE emissions (based on Current Legislation), and the 2050 MTFR emissions (based on Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction). For each set of emissions, we estimate climate change penalty as the difference in PM2.5 between a pair of simulations with either 2015 or 2050 meteorology. Under 2015 emissions, we find a PM2.5 climate change penalty of 1.43 µg m-3 in Eastern China, leading to an additional 35,000 PM2.5-related premature deaths [95% confidence interval (CI), 21,000-40,000] by 2050. However, the PM2.5 climate change penalty weakens to 0.24 µg m-3 with strict anthropogenic emission controls under the 2050 MTFR emissions, which decreases the associated PM2.5-related deaths to 17,000. The smaller MTFR climate change penalty contributes 14% of the total PM2.5 decrease when both emissions and meteorology are changed from 2015 to 2050, and 24% of total health benefits associated with this PM2.5 decrease in Eastern China. This finding suggests that controlling anthropogenic emissions can effectively reduce the climate change penalty on PM2.5 and its associated premature deaths, even though a climate change penalty still occurs even under MTFR. Strengthened controls on anthropogenic emissions is key to attaining air quality targets and protecting human health in the context of future global climate change.

Liu, Song↗

Data to Accompany: PM2.5 is insufficient to explain personal PAH exposure

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality index (AQI) data from outdoor stationary monitors and Hazard Mapping System (HMS) smoke density data from satellites are often used as proxies for personal chemical exposure. Silicone wristbands can quantify more individualized exposure data than stationary air monitors or smoke satellites. However, it is not understood how these proxy measurements compare to chemical data measured from wristbands. We hypothesized that predictive models for personal chemical exposure would be significantly improved by expanding beyond stationary PM2.5 AQI data or satellite HMS data to also include environmental and behavioral information. In Eugene, Oregon, participants wore daily wristbands, carried a phone that recorded locations, and answered daily questionnaires for a seven-day period in multiple seasons. We gathered publicly available daily PM2.5 AQI data and HMS data. We analyzed wristbands for 94 organic chemicals, including 53 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Wristband chemical detections and concentrations, behavioral variables (e.g., time spent indoors), and environmental conditions (e.g., PM2.5 AQI) significantly differed between seasons. Machine learning models were fit to predict personal chemical exposure using PM2.5 AQI only, HMS only, and a multivariate feature set including PM2.5 AQI, HMS, and other environmental and behavioral information. On average, the multivariate models increased predictive accuracy by approximately 70% compared to either the AQI model or the HMS model for all chemicals modeled. This study provides evidence that PM2.5 AQI data alone or HMS data alone is insufficient to explain personal chemical exposures. Our results identify additional key predictors of personal chemical exposure.

Bramer, Lisa M↗

Evaluation of regional transport of PM2.5 during severe atmospheric pollution episodes in the western Yangtze River Delta, China

During winter 2018, the 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province, Western Yangtze River Delta region, China had very high PM2.5 concentrations and prolonged pollution days. The impact of regional transport in the formation, accumulation, as well as dispersion of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Anhui Province was very significant. This study quantified and analyzed the vertical transport of PM2.5 in three major cities (Hefei, Fuyang, and Suzhou) of Anhui Province in January and July 2018 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The results of the inter-regional transport of PM2.5 revealed the dominant transport pathways for the three cities. The flux mainly flowed into Fuyang from Henan (2.23 and 1.42 kt/day in January and July, respectively) and Bozhou (1.96 and 1.21 kt/day in January and July, respectively), while the main flux from Fuyang flowed into Henan (-2.15 kt/day) and Lu'an (-1.91 kt/day) in January and Henan (-0.34 kt/day) and Bozhou (-0.29 kt/day) in July. In addition, the dominant transport pathways and the heights at which they occurred were identified: the northwest-southeast and northeast-south pathways in both winter and summer at both lower (?300 m) and higher (=300 m) levels for Fuyang; the northwest-south and northeast-southwest pathways in winter (at both lower and upper levels) and northwest-east and northeast-southwest pathways in summer at lower and upper levels for Hefei; and the northwest-southeast and northeast-south pathways in both winter (from 50 m up to the top level) and summer (between 100 and 300 m) for Suzhou. Furthermore, the intensities of daily PM2.5 transport fluxes in Fuyang during the atmospheric pollution episode (APE1) were stronger than the monthly average. These results show that joint emission controls across multiple cities along the identified pathways are urgently needed to reduce winter episodes.

Sulaymon, Ishaq D.↗

Observational Study Reveals Inverse Relationship: Rising PM2.5 Concentrations Linked to Decreasing Muon Flux

Muon flux, the rate of muons reaching Earth from the atmosphere, is impacted by various factors such as air pressure, temperature, and humidity. However, the influence of concentrations of PM2.5 (particulate matter with diameters 2.5 mm or smaller) on muon detection rates remains unexplored. During the summer of 2023, smoke from Canadian wildfires (containing significant amounts of particulate matter) blew over regions in the Northern US, introducing huge fluctuations in PM2.5 concentrations, thus inspiring this experiment to investigate the correlation of PM2.5 concentrations and muon rates. To investigate the correlation, muon collision rates were measured and analyzed alongside PM2.5 concentration data over the periods of both light and heavy smoke. Other confounding variables, including temperature, humidity, and atmospheric pressure, were also considered. The results reveal a statistically significant inverse correlation between muon flux and PM2.5 concentrations, indicating that particulate matter has an impact on the rate of muons reaching the earth’s surface.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Observational Study Reveals Inverse Relationship: Rising PM2.5 Concentrations Linked to Decreasing Muon Flux

Muon flux, the rate of muons reaching Earth from the atmosphere, is impacted by various factors such as air pressure, temperature, and humidity. However, the influence of concentrations of PM2.5 (particulate matter with diameters 2.5 mm or smaller) on muon detection rates remains unexplored. During the summer of 2023, smoke from Canadian wildfires (containing significant amounts of particulate matter) blew over regions in the Northern US, introducing huge fluctuations in PM2.5 concentrations, thus inspiring this experiment to investigate the correlation of PM2.5 concentrations and muon rates. To investigate the correlation, muon collision rates were measured and analyzed alongside PM2.5 concentration data over the periods of both light and heavy smoke. Other confounding variables, including temperature, humidity, and atmospheric pressure, were also considered. The results reveal a statistically significant inverse correlation between muon flux and PM2.5 concentrations, indicating that particulate matter has an impact on the rate of muons reaching the earth’s surface.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Experimental and Modeled Assessment of Interventions to Reduce PM2.5 in a Residence during a Wildfire Event

Increasingly large and frequent wildfires affect air quality even indoors by emitting and dispersing fine/ultrafine particulate matter known to pose health risks to residents. With this health threat, we are working to help the building science community develop simplified tools that may be used to estimate impacts to large numbers of homes based on high-level housing characteristics. In addition to reviewing literature sources, we performed an experiment to evaluate interventions to mitigate degraded indoor air quality. We instrumented one residence for one week during an extreme wildfire event in the Pacific Northwest. Outdoor ambient concentrations of PM2.5 reached historic levels, sustained at over 200 μg/m3 for multiple days. Outdoor and indoor PM2.5 were monitored, and data regarding building characteristics, infiltration, and mechanical system operation were gathered to be consistent with the type of information commonly known for residential energy models. Two conditions were studied: a high-capture minimum efficiency rated value (MERV 13) filter integrated into a central forced air (CFA) system, and a CFA with MERV 13 filtration operating with a portable air cleaner (PAC). With intermittent CFA operation and no PAC, indoor corrected concentrations of PM2.5 reached 280 μg/m3, and indoor/outdoor (I/O) ratios reached a mean of 0.55. The measured I/O ratio was reduced to a mean of 0.22 when both intermittent CFA and the PAC were in operation. Data gathered from the test home were used in a modeling exercise to assess expected I/O ratios from both interventions. The mean modeled I/O ratio for the CFA with an MERV 13 filter was 0.48, and 0.28 when the PAC was added. The model overpredicted the MERV 13 performance and underpredicted the CFA with an MERV 13 filter plus a PAC, though both conditions were predicted within 0.15 standard deviation. The results illustrate the ways that models can be used to estimate indoor PM2.5 concentrations in residences during extreme wildfire smoke events.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Annual PM2.5 and cardiovascular mortality rate data: Trends modified by county socioeconomic status in 2,132 US counties

This article contains data on county-level socioeconomic status for 2132 US counties and each county's average annual cardiovascular mortality rate (CMR) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration for 21 years (1990e2010). County CMR, PM2.5, and socioeconomic data were obtained from the US National Center for Health Statistics, US Environmental Protection Agency's Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system, and the US Census, respectively. Annual socioeconomic indices were created using seven county-level measures from the 1990, 2000, and 2010 US Census using factor analysis. Quintiles of this index were used to generate categories of county socioeconomic status. This national data set contains data for annual PM2.5 and CMR changes over a time-period when there was a significant reduction in US air pollutants (following the enactment of the 1970 Clean Air Act). These data are associated with the article “The contribution of improved air quality to reduced cardiovascular mortality: Declines in socioeconomic differences over time” [1]. Data are stored in a comma separated value format and can be downloaded from the USEPA ScienceHub data repository (https://doi.org/10.23719/ 1506014).

Socioeconomic status↗

Constructing a spatiotemporally coherent long-term PM2.5 concentration dataset over China during 1980–2019 using a machine learning approach

The lack of long-term observations and satellite retrievals of health-damaging fine particulate matter in China has demanded the estimates of historical PM 2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter) concentrations. This study constructs a gridded near-surface PM 2.5 concentration dataset across China covering 1980–2019 using the space-time random forest model with atmospheric visibility observations and other auxiliary data. The modeled daily PM2.5 concentrations are in excellent agreement with ground measurements during 2015–2019, with a coefficient of determination of 0.95 and mean relative error of 12%. Besides the atmospheric visibility which explains 30% of total importance of variables in the model, both emissions and meteorological conditions are also essential factors affecting PM2.5 predictions. From 1980 to 2014, the model-predicted PM2.5 concentrations increased constantly with the maximum growth rate of 5–10 µg/m3/decade over eastern China. Due to the clean air actions, PM 2.5 concentrations have decreased effectively at a rate over 50 µg/m 3 /decade in the North China Plain and 20–50 µg/m 3 /decade over eastern China during 2014–2019. The newly generated dataset of 1-degree gridded PM 2.5 concentrations for the past 40 years across China provides a useful means for investigating interannual and decadal environmental and climate impacts related to aerosols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Current and Future PM2.5 Air Quality in China Under CMIP6 and DPEC Emission Scenarios

The latest scenarios for the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) provide opportunities to explore future climate and air pollution mitigation pathways with socioeconomic features. However, to what extent inadequate consideration of region-specific policies in the CMIP6 scenarios would affect regional air quality projections is still not clear. Here, we simulated China’s future PM2.5 concentrations and compositions with local policy-based scenarios and the original CMIP6 datasets, for the first time estimating future air quality differences induced by the lack of local pollution control policies in the CMIP6 scenarios. We found that the CMIP6-driven projections overestimate major chemical aerosols by 10% – 70% in 2015 and fail to capture the rapid PM2.5 concentration decline during 2015–2019. Near-term differences further lead to 43% – 49% (5 – 9 µg/m3) PM2.5 overpredictions in 2050 in CMIP6 scenarios compared with policy-based mitigation scenarios. Our study demonstrates the indispensable influences of local policies on regional analyses and suggests that the research community should incorporate more region-specific information in future scenario designs.

Cheng, Jing↗

Wildfire Smoke PM2.5 per Zipcode

This dataset contains daily aggregated measurements of daily PM2.5 from ambient wildfire smoke in the contiguous United States, spanning from 2006 to 2016. The data is sourced from a study by Childs et al. (2022), titled "Daily Local-Level Estimates of Ambient Wildfire Smoke PM2.5 for the Contiguous US" published in Environmental Science & Technology. To compute the standardized weight across different zip codes, we computed the weight calculation on a 10km grids. To compute the weight, we obtain area-weights that add up to 1 in each polygon of zipcodes. This enabled us to calculate the smoke values per zipcode for the aforementioned period. Those interested in replicating our data processing pipeline can access it at https://github.com/NSAPH-Data-Processing/smoke_aggregation.

PM2.5↗

Measurement of particulated matter (PM1, PM2.5, PM10) using a PM sensor during the SAIL campaign in Gothic, CO and Mt. Crested Butte, CO

We deployed another PM sensor (Modulair-PM, QuantAQ) to measure the mass concentration of particulate matter (PM) for three size cuts at both the main site (M1) and supplementary site (S2) of the SAIL from 14 June 2022 to 14 June 2023. The instruments provide the mass concentration of PM1, PM2.5 and PM10. Mass concentrations were calculated based on measurements made with a nephelometer and an OPC. We used Quant-AQ's algorithm [please see their documentation here and the references within] to determine the mass concentrations reported. Here, we present the time series of sample relative humidity, temperature, pressure, and the mass concentration of PM1, PM2.5 and PM10. We also present the size distribution of the aerosol particles within a diameter range of 0.35 - 40 micron, measured by the OPC of the pm-modulair. However, we encourage caution while using the size distribution data, since it is operated only with the factory calibration. Abstract and description of the campaign can be found here : https://www.arm.gov/research/campaigns/amf2022ssb.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PM2.5 Active Aerosol Collection Field Campaign Report

The long-range transport of aerosols can affect local air quality as well as contribute elements and constituents to mountain watersheds that have potentially positive (e.g., nitrate) and negative (e.g., heavy metals) effects to the local ecosystem. Isotopic analysis of aerosols can be a powerful tool for deconvolving the relative contributions of far-distant and local sources to the composition of collected aerosols. Our field campaign involved the week-long collection of PM2.5 (i.e., particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of about 2.5 microns) aerosols on filters, which were returned to the laboratories at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) for analysis. The sampling sites were located at the Gothic, Colorado Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) and the Mt. Crested Butte, Colorado SAIL ARM sites. The original intention was to measure the lead (Pb) and strontium (Sr) isotopic compositions of the collected aerosols at high precision to provide constraints on source portioning and attribution, as well as analyze the chemical compositions and nitrogen and carbon isotopic compositions. However, severe blank issues arose that prevented the planned isotopic analyses of Sr, Pb, C, and N and severely affected the analyses of the bulk chemical compositions of the collected aerosols, resulting in the failure of the study. The issue is described in Section 2.0.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A worldwide aerosol phenomenology: Elemental and organic carbon in PM 2.5 and PM 10

Elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and particulate matter (PM) concentrations in the inhalable (PM 10 ) and fine (PM 2.5 ) size fractions are measured worldwide, albeit with different analytical methods. These measurements from many researchers were collected and analyzed for Africa, America, Asia, and Europe for 2012–2019. EC/PM, OC/PM, and OC/EC ratios were examined based on region, site type, and season to infer potential sources and impacts. These analyses demonstrate that carbonaceous materials are important PM constituents throughout the world. Mean EC/PM ratios were lowest in PM 10 in Sahelian Africa and Europe (∼0.01), highest (>0.07) in PM 2.5 at urban sites in North America, South America, and Japan. Mean OC/PM ratios were lowest in PM 10 in the Sahel (∼0.06) and in PM 2.5 in China and Thailand (0.10), and highest in central and eastern Europe (∼0.3) and North America (∼0.4). OC/EC ratios were elevated in western and northern Europe, and at regional background sites in North America. EC/PM increased with PM 10 in Thailand, while OC/PM increased with higher PM mass in Thailand, India, and North America, highlighting the specific contribution of carbonaceous aerosols to PM pollution in these regions. At European and North American background sites, OC/EC ratios increased with PM mass. Higher OC/EC ratios in dry periods indicate influence of wildfires, prescribed burns, and secondary aerosol formation. Elevated wintertime EC/PM ratios coincide with residential heating in temperate climate zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗