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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating the Performance Loss Rate of Photovoltaic Systems Using Time Series Change Point Analysis

The accurate quantification of the performance loss rate of photovoltaic systems is critical for project economics. Following the current research activities in the photovoltaic performance and reliability field, this work presents a comparative assessment between common change point methods for performance loss rate estimation of fielded photovoltaic installations. An extensive testing campaign was thus performed to evaluate time series analysis approaches for performance loss rate evaluation of photovoltaic systems. Historical electrical data from eleven photovoltaic systems installed in Nicosia, Cyprus, and the locations’ meteorological measurements over a period of 8 years were used for this investigation. The application of change point detection algorithms on the constructed monthly photovoltaic performance ratio series revealed that the obtained trend might not always be linear. Specifically, thin film photovoltaic systems showed nonlinear behavior, while nonlinearities were also detected for some crystalline silicon photovoltaic systems. When applying several change point techniques, different numbers and locations of changes were detected, resulting in different performance loss rate values (varying by up to 0.85%/year even for the same number of change points). The results highlighted the importance of the application of nonlinear techniques and the need to extract a robust nonlinear model for detecting significant changes in time series data and estimating accurately the performance loss rate of photovoltaic installations.

photovoltaics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions

We address the challenge, due to sparse observational records, of investigating long-term changes in the storm surge climate globally. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database and assess trends in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm surge events at 320 tide gauges across the globe from 1930, 1950, and 1980 to present. Before calculating trends, we perform change point analysis to identify and remove data where inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalysis products could lead to spurious trends in the storm surge data. Even after removing unreliable data, the database still extends existing storm surge records by several decades for most of the tide gauges. Storm surges derived from the centennial 20CR and ERA-20C atmospheric reanalyses show consistently significant positive trends along the southern North Sea and the Kattegat Bay regions during the periods from 1930 and 1950 onwards and negative trends since 1980 period. When comparing all five storm surge reconstructions and observations for the overlapping 1980–2010 period we find overall good agreement, but distinct differences along some coastlines, such as the Bay of Biscay and Australia. We also assess changes in the frequency of extreme surges and find that the number of annual exceedances above the 95th percentile has increased since 1930 and 1950 in several regions such as Western Europe, Kattegat Bay, and the US East Coast.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of the TREAT M2 experiment as a transient benchmark

A transient benchmark based on the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) M2 Calibration experiment (M2-CAL) is under development. TREAT, at Idaho National Laboratory, is a graphite moderated air-cooled research reactor which has been used extensively for fuel material testing under extreme and accident conditions. Accurate benchmark models are a beneficial component in the operations, experimental planning, and development of TREAT. In this work, we present a transient benchmark model for the M2-CAL experiment core loading. The benchmark model incorporates the coupling between the Monte Carlo Code SERPENT and the computational fluid dynamics code OpenFOAM to capture the temperature feedback mechanism. The M2-CAL transient 2580 was simulated in this work. A pre-transient analysis was performed to determine the optimum core composition and conditions before the beginning of the transient. The analysis was validated against historic TREAT kinetic measurements and the worth of the transient rod T-2. The axial power distribution in the flux wire for the M2-CAL experiment was determined and contrasted with the experiment. The model was then used to simulate the M2-CAL transient 2580 experiment based on the reported pre-transient and transient conditions. Several transient observables were calculated and compared to the experiment. The model shows good agreement with the experimental power traces, period, and average increase of power at the power ramp (time > 7.8 s). Inverse point kinetics analysis was performed during the period of the power ramp for the model and the experiment based on that, the temperature feedback component was isolated and contrasted with the experimental feedback. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

On extended supersymmetry of 4d Galileons and 3-brane effective actions

We use on-shell amplitude methods to systematically analyze the possibility of extended supersymmetry for 4d Galileon models, expanding on previous $\mathcal{N}$ = 1 results. Assuming spins ≤1, we prove that there exists no $\mathcal{N}$ = 4 supersymmetric extension of 4d Galileons with a single vector multiplet. Thus the Galileons cannot be part of the effective action of a single flat maximally supersymmetric D3-brane, and that explains why such terms do not appear in the α'-expansion of the abelian open superstring amplitude. For $\mathcal{N}$ = 2 Galileons, we show that the complex scalar Z = $\phi$ + $iχ$ of the vector supermultiplet cannot have $\phi$ and $χ$ both enjoy enhanced shift symmetry; instead, $χ$ can at best be an R-axion with constant shift symmetry. Using the soft bootstrap, we demonstrate that the quartic DBI-Galileon is incompatible with $\mathcal{N}$ = 2 supersymmetry. A similar analysis performed at 7-point shows that a 2-parameter family of $\mathcal{N}$ = 2 supersymmetric quintic Galileons coupled with DBI passes the soft bootstrap. Finally, we show how supersymmetric couplings between Galileons and gravitons arise in generalizations of our constructions, and we conclude with a discussion of Galileons and DBI-Galileons in the context of UV-completability vs. the Swampland.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Influence of point defect accumulation on in-pile thermal conductivity degradation: Fuel rod defect distribution and deviation between in-pile and post irradiation thermal conductivity

As nuclear fuel burn-up increases, its thermal conductivity degrades due to the accumulation of defects that lead to increased phonon scattering rates. This results in a rise in the centerline temperature of the fuel rod, whereby heat generation must be decreased to avoid undesired behavior such as fuel melting and extensive fission gas release. Fuel performance codes are utilized to optimize the fuel's operational conditions; while they are based on established physical principles, their empirical nature limits their predictive capabilities. Recently, an effort has been made to develop predictive fuel performance codes for commonly used nuclear fuels, as well as accelerated qualification of advanced nuclear fuels. In this report, we elaborate on the importance of careful analysis of point defects’ impact on thermal conductivity in fuel performance analysis. Further, a model is presented where point defect concentration is estimated based on Rate Theory modeling and used as input to the Klemens-Callaway model to calculate their contribution to the degradation of thermal conductivity in UO 2 under prototypical irradiation conditions. This analysis suggests that point defect concentration is significant at the rim of the fuel pellet and neglecting this leads to underestimation of the centerline temperature, which may have consequences on fission gas behavior.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A MeerKAT-meets-LOFAR study of MS 1455.0 + 2232: a 590 kiloparsec ‘mini’-halo in a sloshing cool-core cluster

ABSTRACT Radio mini-haloes are poorly understood, moderately extended diffuse radio sources that trace the presence of magnetic fields and relativistic electrons on scales of hundreds of kiloparsecs, predominantly in relaxed clusters. With relatively few confirmed detections to-date, many questions remain unanswered. This paper presents new radio observations of the galaxy cluster MS 1455.0+2232 performed with MeerKAT (covering the frequency range 872−1712 MHz) and LOFAR (covering 120−168 MHz), the first results from a homogeneously selected mini-halo census. We find that this mini-halo extends for ∼590 kpc at 1283 MHz, significantly larger than previously believed, and has a flatter spectral index (α = −0.97 ± 0.05) than typically expected. Our X-ray analysis clearly reveals a large-scale (254 kpc) sloshing spiral in the intracluster medium. We perform a point-to-point analysis, finding a tight single correlation between radio and X-ray surface brightness with a super-linear slope of $b_{\rm 1283\, MHz} = 1.16^{+0.06}_{-0.07}$ and $b_{\rm 145\, MHz} = 1.15^{+0.09}_{-0.08}$; this indicates a strong link between the thermal and non-thermal components of the intracluster medium. Conversely, in the spectral index/X-ray surface brightness plane, we find that regions inside and outside the sloshing spiral follow different correlations. We find compelling evidence for multiple sub-components in this mini-halo for the first time. While both the turbulent (re-)acceleration and hadronic scenarios are able to explain some observed properties of the mini-halo in MS 1455.0+2232, neither scenario is able to account for all the evidence presented by our analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrogen Bond Benchmark: Focal‐Point Analysis and Assessment of DFT Functionals

We performed a hierarchical, convergent ab initio benchmark study and systematically analyzed the performance of density functional approximations for describing hydrogen bonds in small neutral, cationic, and anionic complexes, as well as in larger systems involving amide, urea, deltamide, and squaramide moieties. Focal point analyses (FPA), extrapolating to the ab initio limit, were carried out using correlated wave function methods up to CCSDT(Q) for the small complexes and CCSD(T) for the larger systems, together with correlation-consistent Gaussian basis sets up to the complete basis set limit. Optimized geometries and vibrational frequencies were obtained at the CCSD(T) level. The resulting FPA hydrogen-bond energies converge within a few tenths of a kcal mol −1 . These reference data were used to evaluate 60 density functionals (including 12 dispersion-corrected), spanning the local-density approximation (LDA), generalized gradient approximations (GGAs), meta-GGAs, hybrids, meta-hybrids, double-hybrids, and range-separated hybrids. Overall, the meta-hybrid M06-2X provides the best performance for both hydrogen bond energies and geometries, while the dispersion-corrected GGAs BLYP-D3(BJ) and BLYP-D4 also yield accurate hydrogen-bond data and can serve as cost-effective options for studying large and complex systems.

coupled cluster theory↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 3 results: Cosmology from cosmic shear two-point correlation functions

Here, we perform a blinded cosmology analysis with cosmic shear two-point correlation functions measured from more than 25 million galaxies in the Hyper Suprime-Cam three-year shear catalog in four tomographic redshift bins ranging from 0.3 to 1.5. After conservative masking and galaxy selection, the survey covers 416 deg 2 of the northern sky with an effective galaxy number density of 15 arcmin –2 over the four redshift bins. The 2PCFs adopted for cosmology analysis are measured in the angular range; 7.1 <θ/arcmin < 56.6 for ξ + and 31.2 < θ/arcmin < 248 for ξ – , with a total signal-to-noise ratio of 26.6. We apply a conservative, wide, flat prior on the photometric redshift errors on the last two tomographic bins, and the relative magnitudes of the cosmic shear amplitude across four redshift bins allow us to calibrate the photometric redshift errors. With this flat prior on redshift errors, we find Ω m = 0.25⁢6$^{+0.056}_{–0.044}$ and S 8 ≡ σ 8 ⁢$\sqrt{Ω_{m}/0.3}$ = 0.76⁢9$^{+0.031}_{–0.034}$ (both 68% C.I.) for a flat Λ cold dark matter cosmology. We find, after unblinding, that our constraint on S 8 is consistent with the Fourier space cosmic shear and the 3 × 2 pt analyses on the same HSC dataset. We carefully study the potential systematics from astrophysical and systematic model uncertainties in our fiducial analysis using synthetic data, and report no biases (including projection bias in the posterior space) greater than 0.5σ in the estimation of S 8 . Our analysis hints that the mean redshifts of the two highest tomographic bins are higher than initially estimated. In addition, a number of consistency tests are conducted to assess the robustness of our analysis. Comparing our result with Planck-2018 cosmic microwave background observations, we find a ~2σ tension for the Λ ⁢CDM model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Grid Impact Analysis of Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Charging Stations

This paper presents a grid impact analysis of heavy-duty electric vehicle (EV) charging stations. In this work, heavy-duty EVs have battery capacities high enough to provide a range of 250-500 miles on a single charge, such as long-haul trucks. Heavy-duty EVs will require extremely fast charging rates to reduce charging time and will induce very high charging loads (at the multiple-megawatt scale) if several vehicles charge at the same time. Therefore, analysis is needed to understand the impact of charging station loads on the electric power grid and set the baseline for developing mitigation plans and necessary system upgrades. We develop a systematic procedure to analyze the potential impact of the placement of charging stations on the grid. Charging load is modeled using a DC fast-charging station model. A voltage load sensitivity matrix approach is leveraged to investigate the challenges of placing charging stations on the feeder. Given the charging load profiles and suggested charging station locations, time-series simulations are performed on various connection points on the feeder to understand the impact. The analysis is performed on both the IEEE 34-bus system and a realistic feeder from California. Initial mitigation solutions are developed based on insights from this analysis.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

(Invited) Understanding Multi-Component Transport and Reaction Phenomena in Bipolar Membranes Used for Electrosynthesis

Bipolar membranes (BPMs), which have long seen usage in electrodialysis reactors for the generation of acid and base, have recently demonstrated potential to become critical components in electrochemical synthesis devices. Because they can operate under large pH gradients, BPMs enable favorable environments for electrocatalysis at the individual electrodes. Critical to the implementation of BPMs in these devices is understanding the kinetics of water dissociation that occurs within the BPM junction as well as the co- and counter-ion crossover through the BPM, which both present significant obstacles to developing efficient and stable BPM-devices for electrosynthesis applications. Prior work has modeled ion transport in bipolar membranes in neutral salt solutions for electrodialysis. However, no model exists for the BPM under the harsh applied pH gradients that would be present in electrosynthesis, and there is significant need to explore the effects of the internal hydration on the lifetime and performance of BPMs in such environments. Additionally, a mechanistic understanding of water dissociation catalysis will be required to develop interfacial catalysts that enable the high current density operation required for scalable electrosynthesis of fuels. In this talk, we discuss modeling methodologies and physics inherent in BPMs and present our recent model of ion transport and water dissociation catalysis in BPMs across the pH scale. Specifically, we simulate multi-ion transport for a BPM with various electrolyte combinations on each side of the membrane, demonstrating the significance of co- and counter-ion crossover in BPMs operating under harsh pH gradients. We then investigate effects caused by hydration gradients that occur due to internal ion-exchange and examine potential methods for improving performance and mitigating crossover. Finally, we examine the impact of the interfacial water dissociation catalyst and perform sensitivity analysis on the key properties (catalyst point of zero charge and pKa) that dictate catalyst performance. These results provide information that is critical to developing a comprehensive understanding of multi-component phenomena in BPMs and to informing the design and implementation of BPMs in next-generation devices for the numerous electrosynthesis chemistries that benefit from operation under an applied pH gradient.

Bui, Justin C↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ethanol to diesel: a sustainable alternative for the heavy-duty transportation sector

The combustion of middle distillates (diesel and jet fuel) is responsible for the emission of more than 2 GTon of CO 2 per year worldwide. While sustainable alternatives exist for gasoline and jet fuel, we still lack sustainable alternatives for diesel. This fact is especially relevant if we consider that electrification of sectors where diesel is used is challenging. One sustainable approach for diesel production is the catalytic upgrading of ethanol. While most work in this field has focused on the dehydration/oligomerization of ethanol, this approach is limited to producing fuels that have a high degree of branching and low cetane number. Another approach is the sequential use of ethanol Guerbet coupling, leading to higher alcohols, followed by etherification, leading to large ethers which, importantly, result in a product with high cetane number. In this work, we explore the catalytic upgrading of ethanol into diesel following an approach based on the initial Guerbet coupling of ethanol followed by etherification. The results presented are a collaborative and synergic effort among process and systems engineers, experimentalist in the area of catalysis, and fuel property modelers. Here, we demonstrate experimentally the feasibility of upgrading ethanol into a diesel fuel with properties that surpass its fossil counterpart. The diesel produced has a predicted cetane number of ~70 and outstanding cold flow properties, while maintaining other properties (viscosity, density, and flash point) within expected ranges. A technoeconomic analysis performed based on a detailed biorefinery model shows that the MFSP is ~5.89$ per Gal in 2021 dollars when lignocellulosic ethanol is used, with the most relevant economic driver the cost of the ethanol feedstock. The upgrading process can be performed with a net energy gain (EROI = 1.49 > 1). An LCA analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reveals that the use of lignocellulosic ethanol may lead to more than 50% reduction in GHG emissions compared to fossil diesel. Depending on the CO 2 emissions associated with the production of ethanol we show that in some instances the production of carbon neutral diesel fuel is possible.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Harmonic analysis of discrete tracers of large-scale structure

It is commonplace in cosmology to analyze fields projected onto the celestial sphere, and in particular density fields that are defined by a set of points e.g. galaxies. When performing an harmonic-space analysis of such data (e.g. an angular power spectrum) using a pixelized map one has to deal with aliasing of small-scale power and pixel window functions. We compare and contrast the approaches to this problem taken in the cosmic microwave background and large-scale structure communities, and advocate for a direct approach that avoids pixelization. We describe a method for performing a pseudo-spectrum analysis of a galaxy data set and show that it can be implemented efficiently using well-known algorithms for special functions that are suited to acceleration by graphics processing units (GPUs). The method returns the same spectra as the more traditional map-based approach if in the latter the number of pixels is taken to be sufficiently large and the mask is well sampled. The method is readily generalizable to cross-spectra and higher-order functions. It also provides a convenient route for distributing the information in a galaxy catalog directly in harmonic space, as a complement to releasing the configuration-space positions and weights, and a route to spectral apodization. Finally, we make public a code enabling the application of our method to existing and upcoming datasets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear Photovoltaic Degradation Rates: Modeling and Comparison Against Conventional Methods

Although common practice for estimating photovoltaic (PV) degradation rate (RD) assumes a linear behavior, field data have shown that degradation rates are frequently nonlinear. This article presents a new methodology to detect and calculate nonlinear RD based on PV performance time-series from nine different systems over an eight-year period. Prior to performing the analysis and in order to adjust model parameters to reflect actual PV operation, synthetic datasets were utilized for calibration purposes. A change-point analysis is then applied to detect changes in the slopes of PV trends, which are extracted from constructed performance ratio (PR) time-series. Once the number and location of change points is found, the ordinary least squares method is applied to the different segments to compute the corresponding rates. The obtained results verified that the extracted trends from the PR time-series may not always be linear and therefore, “nonconventional” models need to be applied. All thin-film technologies demonstrated nonlinear behavior whereas nonlinearity detected in the crystalline silicon systems is thought to be due to a maintenance event. A comparative analysis between the new methodology and other conventional methods demonstrated levelized cost of energy differences of up to 6.14%, highlighting the importance of considering nonlinear degradation behavior

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Discrete fracture network model benchmarks developed and applied in a DECOVALEX-2023 repository performance assessment study

This study presents newly developed benchmarks for modeling flow and transport within discrete fracture networks (DFNs) and useful methods for analyzing the results. The new benchmarks are designed to test modeling approaches for use in probabilistic performance assessment models of deep geologic repositories in fractured rock. The benchmarks simulate flow and transport through a 1 km 3 block of fractured rock. The first simulates migration of a short pulse of tracer through a simple network of four intersecting fractures. The second adds 1089 stochastically generated fractures. The third changes the pulse to a continuous point source. Evaluation of model performance relies on moment analysis and comparison of the results of different models. The expected nondimensional first moment of the conservative tracer for each benchmark is 1. The benchmarks were simulated by teams from Canada, Czechia, Germany, Korea, Sweden, Taiwan, and the United States as part of a DECOVALEX-2023 study (decovalex.org). The teams used various approaches, including explicit DFN modeling, DFN upscaling to an equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM), and a combination of both methods. Transport mechanisms are modeled using either the advection-dispersion equation or particle tracking. Results demonstrate strong agreement among the models in breakthrough behavior up to the 75th percentile. Significant deviations in first moments and well-clustered outputs led to the identification of inaccuracies in several models. Such findings exemplify the benefit of exercising these benchmarks and using the presented methods to test DFN flow and transport models.

Benchmark↗
DOE OSTI2022

Virtual Dynamic Grid Impedance and Its Impacts on Harmonics and Stability of Inverter Based Resources Plant

Nowadays, a large number of inverter-based resources (IBRs) are integrated into the grid at a single connection point as an IBR plant. In this article, a virtual dynamic grid impedance concept is introduced to evaluate the harmonics and stability for grid integration of an IBR plant containing multiple IBRs. First, a detailed theoretical study is conducted to build a foundation of the virtual grid impedance concept, which is a dynamic impedance that changes with the number of IBRs added into an IBR plant. Then, based on the new virtual dynamic grid impedance concept, frequency spectrum analysis is performed to explore harmonic impact at the interconnection point for an IBR plant with IBRs having L, LC, and LCL filters, respectively. An electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation model of a grid-connected IBR plant is developed to explore the harmonics and stability of the IBR plant connected to the grid as well as the reliable operation of IBRs within the plant from the novel virtual equivalent dynamic grid impedance point of view. Hardware experiments are conducted to validate the EMT simulation evaluation. The results show that the number of IBRs added into an IBR plant influences the grid impedance, i.e., grid strength, and the grid impedance variation has multiple impacts on the IBR plant and IBRs within the plant depending on the grid-connected filters of the IBRs.

grid impedance↗
DOE OSTI2023

The catalog-to-cosmology framework for weak lensing and galaxy clustering for LSST

We present TXPipe, a modular, automated and reproducible pipeline for ingesting catalog data and performing all the calculations required to obtain quality-assured two-point measurements of lensing and clustering, and their covariances, with the metadata necessary for parameter estimation. The pipeline is developed within the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), and designed for cosmology analyses using LSST data. In this paper, we present the pipeline for the so-called 3x2pt analysis -- a combination of three two-point functions that measure the auto- and cross-correlation between galaxy density and shapes. We perform the analysis both in real and harmonic space using TXPipe and other LSST-DESC tools. We validate the pipeline using Gaussian simulations and show that it accurately measures data vectors and recovers the input cosmology to the accuracy level required for the first year of LSST data under this simplified scenario. We also apply the pipeline to a realistic mock galaxy sample extracted from the CosmoDC2 simulation suite (Korytov et al. 2019). TXPipe establishes a baseline framework that can be built upon as the LSST survey proceeds. Furthermore, the pipeline is designed to be easily extended to science probes beyond the 3x2pt analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗