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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

On the Determination of Poisson Statistics for Haystack Radar Observations of Orbital Debris

A convenient and powerful method is used to determine if radar detections of orbital debris are observed according to Poisson statistics. This is done by analyzing the time interval between detection events. For Poisson statistics, the probability distribution of the time interval between events is shown to be an exponential distribution. This distribution is a special case of the Erlang distribution that is used in estimating traffic loads on telecommunication networks. Poisson statistics form the basis of many orbital debris models but the statistical basis of these models has not been clearly demonstrated empirically until now. Interestingly, during the fiscal year 2003 observations with the Haystack radar in a fixed staring mode, there are no statistically significant deviations observed from that expected with Poisson statistics, either independent or dependent of altitude or inclination. One would potentially expect some significant clustering of events in time as a result of satellite breakups, but the presence of Poisson statistics indicates that such debris disperse rapidly with respect to Haystack's very narrow radar beam. An exception to Poisson statistics is observed in the months following the intentional breakup of the Fengyun satellite in January 2007.

Stokely, Christopher L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

An Estimation of the Likelihood of Significant Eruptions During 2000-2009 Using Poisson Statistics on Two-Point Moving Averages of the Volcanic Time Series

Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (volcanic explosivity index (VEI)>=4) per decade spans 2-11, with 96 percent located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere. A two-point moving average of the volcanic time series has higher values since the 1860's than before, being 8.00 in the 1910's (the highest value) and 6.50 in the 1980's, the highest since the 1910's peak. Because of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that its value for the 1990's will measure approximately 6.50 +/- 1, implying that approximately 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially those having VEI>=5) nearly always have been associated with short-term episodes of global cooling, the occurrence of even one might confuse our ability to assess the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more events with a VEI>=4 within the next ten years is >99 percent. It is approximately 49 percent for an event with a VEI>=5, and 18 percent for an event with a VEI>=6. Hence, the likelihood that a climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next ten years appears reasonably high.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Two transitions in complex eigenvalue statistics: Hermiticity and integrability breaking

Open quantum systems have complex energy eigenvalues which are expected to follow non-Hermitian random matrix statistics, when chaotic, or two-dimensional (2d) Poisson statistics, when integrable. We investigate the spectral properties of a many-body quantum spin chain, i.e., the Hermitian Heisenberg model with imaginary disorder. Its rich complex eigenvalue statistics is found to separately break both Hermiticity and integrability at different scales of the disorder strength. With no disorder, the system is integrable and Hermitian, with spectral statistics corresponding to the 1d Poisson point process. At very small disorder, we find a transition from 1d Poisson statistics to an effective D -dimensional Poisson point process, showing Hermiticity breaking. At intermediate disorder, we find integrability breaking, as inferred from the statistics matching that of non-Hermitian complex symmetric random matrices in class AI † . For large disorder, as the spins align, we recover the expected integrability (now in the non-Hermitian setup), indicated by 2d Poisson statistics. These conclusions are based on fitting the spin-chain data of numerically generated nearest- and next-to-nearest-neighbor spacing distributions to an effective 2d Coulomb gas description at inverse temperature β . We confirm that such an effective description of random matrices also applies in classes AI † and AII † up to next-to-nearest-neighbor spacings. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Akemann, Gernot (ORCID:0000000217104258)↗
DOE OSTI2019

Study of Fluctuations in Undulator Radiation in the IOTA Ring at Fermilab

We study turn-by-turn fluctuations in the number of emitted photons in an undulator, installed in the IOTA electron storage ring at Fermilab with an InGaAs PIN photodiode and an integrating circuit. Our study was motivated by the previous experiment *. We propose a theoretical model for the experimental data from * and in our own experiment we attempted to verify the model in an independent and more systematic way. Moreover, these fluctuations are an interesting subject for a study by itself, since they act as a seed for SASE in FELs. We improve the precision of the measurements from * by subtracting the average signal amplitude using a comb filter with a one-turn IOTA delay, and by using a special algorithm for noise subtraction. We obtain a reasonable agreement between our theoretical model and experiment. Along with repeating the experiment from *, which was performed at a constant beam current, we also collect data for fluctuations in undulator light at different beam current values. Lastly, in our experiment we were able to see the transition from Poisson statistics to Super-Poisson statistics for undulator light, whereas in * only the latter statistics was observed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Study of Fluctuations in Undulator Radiation in the IOTA Ring at Fermilab [Slides]

Quantitative theoretical model for the experiment from was developed and verified in an independent experiment in IOTA. It helped corroborate a model of intrabeam scattering in IOTA. The agreement is expected to improve in the future. It was shown that along with measurements of longitudinal bunch size the fluctuations can be used to measure transverse bunch size in some cases (e.g., in IOTA). Improvements as compared to the similar experiment: Better precision due to using the comb filter with one-turn delay and the special noise subtraction algorithm. In IOTA, fluctuations were two orders of magnitude smaller. Fluctuations data were collected for different values of bunch charge. The transition from Poisson statistics to Super-Poisson statistics was observed in undulator radiation for the first time.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Quantum Random Number Generator Based on the 100-Mbit/s Poisson Photocount Statistics

A quantum random number generator is experimentally realized. The initial randomness source is a sequence of photocounts from quasi-single-photon radiation detected with a SiPM (Silicon Photo Multiplier) silicon avalanche detector array. The use of a SiPM provides a reliable control of the quantum nature of the Poisson photocount statistics. A special algorithm with nonexponential complexity allows one to extract from the Poisson process all the randomness contained in it, namely, a random uniform sequence of 0 and 1.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

The shape of the photon transfer curve of CCD sensors

The photon transfer curve (PTC) of a CCD depicts the variance of uniform images as a function of their average. It is now well established that the variance is not proportional to the average, as Poisson statistics would indicate, but rather flattens out at high flux. This “variance deficit”, related to the brighter-fatter effect, feeds correlations between nearby pixels that increase with flux, and decay with distance. We propose an analytical expression for the PTC shape, and for the dependence of correlations with intensity, and relate both to some more basic quantities related to the electrostatics of the sensor, which are commonly used to correct science images for the brighter-fatter effect. We derive electrostatic constraints from a large set of flat field images acquired with a CCD e2v 250, and eventually question the generally-admitted assumption that boundaries of CCD pixels shift by amounts proportional to the source charges. Our results show that the departure of flat field statistics from the Poisson law is entirely compatible with charge redistribution during the drift in the sensor.

(1.501 MB)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feasibility of Correlation-Aware Inference and Universal Precision Scaling in Bonse–Hart Ultra-Small-Angle Neutron Scattering

Bonse–Hart ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS) provides access to micrometre-scale structure, but useful measurements often require long counting times. In this work, we test whether the expected smoothness of the scattering profile can be exploited to improve data quality at lower counting statistics. We apply a Gaussian-process-based method to Bonse–Hart USANS data and evaluate its performance on pseudo-measurements generated from high-statistics experiments under Poisson statistics. This provides a stringent test of how well the underlying I(Q) profile can be reconstructed when the available counts are substantially reduced. We further show that, in the counting-limited regime, the reconstruction error follows a universal scaling behaviour that differs from the usual independent-counting expectation. At higher counts, the improvement crosses over to a resolution-limited regime set by analyser-angle discretization and rocking-curve width. These results clarify when correlation-aware inference is useful in USANS and provide a practical basis for improving measurement efficiency and beam-time usage.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Preliminary Investigation for the Use of Digital Gamma-Gamma Coincidence Spectrometry to Determine 239 Pu

Gamma-ray spectrometry is one of the most effective ways to determine the activity of 239 Pu, depending on activity levels. However, often high backgrounds in complex spectra with low amounts of 239 Pu can increase detection limits. The effectiveness of the use of gamma-gamma spectrometry in the characterization of 239 Pu was studied for the first time. Using the XIA Pixie-16 digital pulse processor, the gamma-gamma system was studied to establish unshielded background radiation, source to detector distances, Poisson statistics and gating of several gamma-rays from 239 Pu. The results clearly show that the distance between gamma ray spectrometers has a much bigger effort in counting statistics for the gamma-gamma coincidence detectors than a single detector. In addition, measurements demonstrated the background radiation to be virtually negligible, meaning gammagamma spectroscopy can still be very effective without requiring the usual lead shielding. Other measurements were taken to assure Poisson statistics were attained in the digital system. Preliminary measurements revealed 3 orders of magnitude background reduction for the measurement of 239 Pu using gated gamma-rays.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Poisson vs. Gaussian statistics for sparse X-ray data: Application to the soft X-ray spectrometer

Abstract Reliable results when fitting X-ray data require proper consideration of the statistics involved. We probe the impact of Gaussian versus Poisson statistics at low count levels using both the standard χ2 method and maximum likelihood based on Poisson (C) statistics. The difference is studied and quantified through simulated spectra with known properties. We then test the results through analysis of Mn Kα calibration data taken with the flight spare microcalorimeter for the Hitomi soft X-ray spectrometer. Through comparison with simulations, our results show that the χ2 method tends to give overly optimistic estimates of the detector energy resolution, in particular when there are few counts. Given an energy resolution of ∼5 eV and a line with about 100 photons, the line width becomes ∼10% lower in the χ2 method than in Poisson statistics. This is a consequence of the uncertainties being dominated by counting statistics, and therefore highlights the need to choose the appropriate fit statistic.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2019

Poisson vs. Gaussian statistics for sparse X-ray data: Application to the soft X-ray spectrometer

Reliable results when fitting X-ray data require proper consideration of the statistics involved. We probe the impact of Gaussian versus Poisson statistics at low count levels using both the standard χ^(2) method and maximum likelihood based on Poisson (C) statistics. The difference is studied and quantified through simulated spectra with known properties. We then test the results through analysis of Mn Kα calibration data taken with the flight spare microcalorimeter for the Hitomi soft X-ray spectrometer. Through comparison with simulations, our results show that the χ^(2) method tends to give overly optimistic estimates of the detector energy resolution, in particular when there are few counts. Given an energy resolution of ∼5 eV and a line with about 100 photons, the line width becomes ∼10% lower in the χ^(2) method than in Poisson statistics. This is a consequence of the uncertainties being dominated by counting statistics, and therefore highlights the need to choose the appropriate fit statistic.

Shinya Yamada↗
DOE OSTI2022

Relaxation mechanisms in a disordered system with Poisson-level statistics

Here we discuss the interplay between many-body localization and spin symmetry. To this end, we study the time evolution of several observables in the anisotropic t- j model. Like the Hubbard chain, the studied model contains charge and spin degrees of freedom, yet it has smaller Hilbert space and thus allows for numerical studies of larger systems. We compare the field disorder that breaks the $\mathbb{Z}_2$ spin symmetry and a potential disorder that preserves the latter symmetry. In the former case, sufficiently strong disorder leads to localization of all studied observables, at least for the studied system sizes. However, in the case of symmetry-preserving disorder, we observe that odd operators under the $\mathbb{Z}_2$ spin transformation relax towards the equilibrium value at relatively short timescales that grow only polynomially with the disorder strength. On the other hand, the dynamics of even operators and the level statistics within each symmetry sector are consistent with localization. Our results indicate that localization exists within each symmetry sector for symmetry-preserving disorder. Odd operators' apparent relaxation is due to their time evolution between distinct symmetry sectors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Avalanches and many-body resonances in many-body localized systems

Here we numerically study both the avalanche instability and many-body resonances in strongly disordered spin chains exhibiting many-body localization (MBL). Finite-size systems behave like MBL within the MBL regimes, which we divide into the asymptotic MBL phase and the finite-size MBL regime; the latter regime is, however, thermal in the limit of large systems and long times. In both Floquet and Hamiltonian models, we identify some landmarks within the MBL regimes. Our first landmark is an estimate of where the MBL phase becomes unstable to avalanches, obtained by measuring the slowest relaxation rate of a finite chain coupled to an infinite bath at one end. Our estimates indicate that the actual MBL-to-thermal phase transition occurs much deeper in the MBL regimes than has been suggested by most previous studies. Our other landmarks involve systemwide many-body resonances: We find that the effective matrix elements producing eigenstates with systemwide many-body resonances are enormously broadly distributed. This broad distribution means that the onset of such resonances in typical samples occurs quite deep in the MBL regimes, and the first such resonances typically involve rare pairs of eigenstates that are farther apart in energy than the minimum gap. Thus we find that the resonance properties define two landmarks that divide the MBL regimes of finite-size systems into three subregimes: (i) at strongest randomness, typical samples do not have any eigenstates that are involved in systemwide many-body resonances; (ii) there is a substantial intermediate subregime where typical samples do have such resonances but the pair of eigenstates with the minimum spectral gap does not, so the size of the minimum gap agrees with expectations from Poisson statistics; and (iii) in the weaker randomness subregime, the minimum gap is larger than predicted by Poisson level statistics because it is involved in a many-body resonance and thus subject to level repulsion. Nevertheless, even in this third subregime, all but a vanishing fraction of eigenstates remain nonresonant and the system thus still appears MBL in most respects. Based on our estimates of the location of the avalanche instability, it might be that the MBL phase is only part of subregime (i) and the other subregimes are entirely in the thermal phase, even though they look localized in most respects, so are in the finite-size MBL regime.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1986

Statistical performance of the intensified charged coupled device

The first analysis of the statistical performance of the intensified charge coupled device (CCD) is presented. The Poisson statistics of the arriving photons, the exponential pulse height distribution of the microchannel plate in the image intensifier, and the effects of discrete digitization of the charge in reading the CCD are included. A range of intensifier gains from the high levels that permit pulse counting to the low levels that can be used with the accumulation of charge on the CCD is considered. As a tool for this analysis, an analytical model of the performance of the detector system that is generally useful for predicting many aspects of system performance under a wide range of conditions is developed. The statistical penalty for operating the intensified CCD in the charge accumulation mode is not severe, and in some applications it may be desirable to accept this penalty to gain the advantages of increased dynamic range through charge accumulation. This investigation has revealed no pathological aspects of the operation of the detector system.

Sandel, B. R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Maximum Likelihood Time-of-Arrival Estimation of Optical Pulses via Photon-Counting Photodetectors

Many optical imaging, ranging, and communications systems rely on the estimation of the arrival time of an optical pulse. Recently, such systems have been increasingly employing photon-counting photodetector technology, which changes the statistics of the observed photocurrent. This requires time-of-arrival estimators to be developed and their performances characterized. The statistics of the output of an ideal photodetector, which are well modeled as a Poisson point process, were considered. An analytical model was developed for the mean-square error of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, demonstrating two phenomena that cause deviations from the minimum achievable error at low signal power. An approximation was derived to the threshold at which the ML estimator essentially fails to provide better than a random guess of the pulse arrival time. Comparing the analytic model performance predictions to those obtained via simulations, it was verified that the model accurately predicts the ML performance over all regimes considered. There is little prior art that attempts to understand the fundamental limitations to time-of-arrival estimation from Poisson statistics. This work establishes both a simple mathematical description of the error behavior, and the associated physical processes that yield this behavior. Previous work on mean-square error characterization for ML estimators has predominantly focused on additive Gaussian noise. This work demonstrates that the discrete nature of the Poisson noise process leads to a distinctly different error behavior.

Erkmen, Baris I.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nowcasting Earthquakes With Stochastic Simulations: Information Entropy of Earthquake Catalogs

Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes can be computed using Receiver Operating Characteristic methods. Furthermore, analysis of the Shannon information content of the earthquake catalogs has been used to show that there is information contained in the catalogs, and that it can vary in time. So an important question remains, where does the information originate? In this paper, we examine this question using stochastic simulations of earthquake catalogs. Our catalog simulations are computed using an Earthquake Rescaled Aftershock Seismicity (“ERAS”) stochastic model. This model is similar in many ways to other stochastic seismicity simulations, but has the advantage that the model has only 2 free parameters to be set, one for the aftershock (Omori-Utsu) time decay, and one for the aftershock spatial migration away from the epicenter. Generating a simulation catalog and fitting the two parameters to the observed catalog such as California takes only a few minutes of wall clock time. While clustering can arise from random, Poisson statistics, we show that significant information in the simulation catalogs arises from the “non-Poisson” power-law aftershock clustering, implying that the practice of de-clustering observed catalogs may remove information that would otherwise be useful in forecasting and nowcasting. We also show that the nowcasting method provides similar results with the ERAS model as it does with observed seismicity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Possible Statistics of Two Coupled Random Fields: Application to Passive Scalar

We use the relativity postulate of scale invariance to derive the similarity transformations between two coupled scale-invariant random elds at different scales. We nd the equations leading to the scaling exponents. This formulation is applied to the case of passive scalars advected i) by a random Gaussian velocity field; and ii) by a turbulent velocity field. In the Gaussian case, we show that the passive scalar increments follow a log-Levy distribution generalizing Kraichnan's solution and, in an appropriate limit, a log-normal distribution. In the turbulent case, we show that when the velocity increments follow a log-Poisson statistics, the passive scalar increments follow a statistics close to log-Poisson. This result explains the experimental observations of Ruiz et al. about the temperature increments.

Dubrulle, B.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Multiresolution spatiotemporal mechanical model of the heart as a prior to constrain the solution for 4D models of the heart

In several nuclear cardiac imaging applications (SPECT and PET), images are formed by reconstructing tomographic data using an iterative reconstruction algorithm with corrections for physical factors involved in the imaging detection process and with corrections for cardiac and respiratory motion. The physical factors are modeled as coefficients in the matrix of a system of linear equations and include attenuation, scatter, and spatially varying geometric response. The solution to the tomographic problem involves solving the inverse of this system matrix. This requires the design of an iterative reconstruction algorithm with a statistical model that best fits the data acquisition. The most appropriate model is based on a Poisson distribution. Using Bayes Theorem, an iterative reconstruction algorithm is designed to determine the maximum a posteriori estimate of the reconstructed image with constraints that maximizes the Bayesian likelihood function for the Poisson statistical model. The a priori distribution is formulated as the joint entropy (JE) to measure the similarity between the gated cardiac PET image and the cardiac MRI cine image modeled as a FE mechanical model. In conclusion, the developed algorithm shows the potential of using a FE mechanical model of the heart derived from a cardiac MRI cine scan to constrain solutions of gated cardiac PET images.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗