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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Machine‐Learning‐Assisted Stochastic Cloud Population Model as a Parameterization of Cumulus Convection

Abstract A machine‐learning‐assisted stochastic cloud population model is coupled with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to represent fluctuations in the cloud‐base mass flux associated with the life cycles and interactions among cumulus convection cells. In this cloud population model, the size distribution and the associated cloud‐base mass flux of the convective cells are related to their previous state and to the change in the total convective area via a transition function. The convective area tendency in turn is assumed to depend on the cloud‐base mass flux that is resolved by the host WRF model. The transition function is represented by a single hidden‐layer neural network trained by the evolution of convective cell size distributions in a 1‐km grid‐spacing WRF simulation run over the Australian Monsoon region. At every grid point of the host model, the cloud population model predicts the cell size and cloud‐base mass flux distributions from which a random sample of cells is fed to an entraining parcel model that calculates precipitation as well as the associated liquid water potential temperature and total moisture tendencies. These tendencies are averaged over the cells and provided to the host model. Several regional simulations are performed over tropical and midlatitude domains to test this as a potential approach to scale‐aware parameterization. It is shown that such an approach could be a new promising path to simulating realistic precipitation statistics and propagation of precipitation associated with the Madden‐Julian Oscillation while maintaining realistic depictions of the diurnal cycle over both land and ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Building Alternative Indices of Socioeconomic Status for Population Modeling in Data-Sparse Contexts (Short Paper)

Population modeling requires clear definitions of socioeconomic status (SES) to ensure overall estimate accuracy and locate potentially underserved subpopulations. This presents a challenge as SES can be measured in myriad ways and for divergent purposes, and the data required to calculate these metrics may be lacking, particularly in low and middle income countries (LMICs). To support more refined SES measurement, we explore improvements upon the Demographic and Health Survey’s (DHS) Wealth Index (DHS-WI) using alternative characterizations of SES based on multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) and hierarchical clustering. We produce the MCA-derived metrics first on a full suite of household economic, demographic, and dwelling variables, then on a reduced set of occupant-only SES characteristics. We explore the utility of these metrics relative to DHS-WI based on their ability to 1) differentiate DHS household types and 2) identify mixtures of SES levels within DHS samples and mapped at high spatial resolution. We find that our full suite MCA yields more clearly defined SES segments and that our reduced MCA delineates occupant SES most clearly, suggesting potential pathways to improve upon the DHS-WI in future population modeling efforts for LMICs.

Cunningham, Angela↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stellar population models based on the SDSS-IV MaStar library of stellar spectra – I. Intermediate-age/old models

ABSTRACT We use the first release of the SDSS/MaStar stellar library comprising ∼9000, high S/N spectra, to calculate integrated spectra of stellar population models. The models extend over the wavelength range 0.36–1.03 µm and share the same spectral resolution ($R\sim 1800$) and flux calibration as the SDSS-IV/MaNGA galaxy data. The parameter space covered by the stellar spectra collected thus far allows the calculation of models with ages and chemical composition in the range $\rm {\mathit{ t}\gt 200 \,Myr, -2 \lt = [Z/H] \lt = + 0.35}$, which will be extended as MaStar proceeds. Notably, the models include spectra for dwarf main-sequence stars close to the core H-burning limit, as well as spectra for cold, metal-rich giants. Both stellar types are crucial for modelling λ > 0.7 µm absorption spectra. Moreover, a better parameter coverage at low metallicity allows the calculation of models as young as 500 Myr and the full account of the blue horizontal branch phase of old populations. We present models adopting two independent sets of stellar parameters (Teff, log g, [Z/H]). In a novel approach, their reliability is tested ‘on the fly’ using the stellar population models themselves. We perform tests with Milky Way and Magellanic Clouds globular clusters, finding that the new models recover their ages and metallicities remarkably well, with systematics as low as a few per cent for homogeneous calibration sets. We also fit a MaNGA galaxy spectrum, finding residuals of the order of a few per cent comparable to the state-of-art models, but now over a wider wavelength range.

Maraston, C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

SPT clusters with DES and HST weak lensing. I. Cluster lensing and Bayesian population modeling of multiwavelength cluster datasets

We present a Bayesian population modeling method to analyze the abundance of galaxy clusters identified by the South Pole Telescope (SPT) with a simultaneous mass calibration using weak gravitational lensing data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). We discuss and validate the modeling choices with a particular focus on a robust, weak-lensing-based mass calibration using DES data. For the DES Year 3 data, we report a systematic uncertainty in weak-lensing mass calibration that increases from 1% at z = 0.25 to 10% at z = 0.95 , to which we add 2% in quadrature to account for uncertainties in the impact of baryonic effects. We implement an analysis pipeline that joins the cluster abundance likelihood with a multiobservable likelihood for the Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect, optical richness, and weak-lensing measurements for each individual cluster. We validate that our analysis pipeline can recover unbiased cosmological constraints by analyzing mocks that closely resemble the cluster sample extracted from the SPT-SZ, SPTpol ECS, and SPTpol 500d surveys and the DES Year 3 and HST-39 weak-lensing datasets. This work represents a crucial prerequisite for the subsequent cosmological analysis of the real dataset.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Detecting Important Drivers of Gridded Population Modeling With Machine Learning

High-resolution population datasets have been lever-aged across a broad swath of domains, such as climate change, public policy, humanitarian aid, and rescue operations, among others. Machine learning methods were adopted to generate high-resolution or gridded population estimates by using various geospatial input features such as buildings, roads, and nighttime lights. In this study, we evaluate the importance of population features using Random Forest models across three levels of analysis, utilizing permutation measures. Our research aims to address key questions to enhance our understanding of high-resolution population modeling, such as: Are certain features globally (10 countries collectively) more important than others? Do optimal features vary by country? Within each country, do feature importance differ across administrative units? What similarities exist in feature importance at the global, country, and administrative unit levels? To answer these questions, we leverage the Kneedle algorithm to automate the selection of optimum features. We find that there are patterns displayed by features across spatial boundaries, evidenced by the same feature being the most important indicator of population across 7 of the 10 countries modeled. Our findings indicate that while important features may vary across geographies, certain features consistently hold greater importance than others agnostic of geography.

Lebakula, Viswadeep [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000152935914↗
DOE OSTI2021

A VECTOR ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR POPULATION MODELING

We propose a vector alternative to the typical raster based population modeling framework. When compared with rasters, vectors are more precise, have the ability to hold more information, and are more conducive to areal constructs such as building and parcel outlines. While rasters have traditionally provided computational efficiency, much of this efficiency is reduced at finer resolutions and computational resources are more plentiful today. Herein we describe the approach and implementation methodology. We also describe the output data stack for the United States and provide examples and applications.

Moehl, Jessica↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dosage optimization for reducing tumor burden using a phenotype-structured population model with a drug-resistance continuum

Abstract Drug resistance is a significant obstacle to effective cancer treatment. To gain insights into how drug resistance develops, we adopted a concept called fitness landscape and employed a phenotype-structured population model by fitting to a set of experimental data on a drug used for ovarian cancer, olaparib. Our modeling approach allowed us to understand how a drug affects the fitness landscape and track the evolution of a population of cancer cells structured with a spectrum of drug resistance. We also incorporated pharmacokinetic (PK) modeling to identify the optimal dosages of the drug that could lead to long-term tumor reduction. We derived a formula that indicates that maximizing variation in plasma drug concentration over a dosing interval could be important in reducing drug resistance. Our findings suggest that it may be possible to achieve better treatment outcomes with a drug dose lower than the levels recommended by the drug label. Acknowledging the current limitations of our work, we believe that our approach, which combines modeling of both PK and drug resistance evolution, could contribute to a new direction for better designing drug treatment regimens to improve cancer treatment.

Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modelling populations of kilonovae

Abstract The 2017 detection of a kilonova coincident with gravitational-wave emission has identified neutron star mergers as the major source of the heaviest elements and dramatically constrained alternative theories of gravity. Observing a population of such sources has the potential to transform cosmology, nuclear physics, and astrophysics. However, with only one confident multi-messenger detection currently available, modelling the diversity of signals expected from such a population requires improved theoretical understanding. In particular, models that are quick to evaluate and are calibrated with more detailed multi-physics simulations are needed to design observational strategies for kilonovae detection and to obtain rapid-response interpretations of new observations. We use grey-opacity models to construct populations of kilonovae, spanning ejecta parameters predicted by numerical simulations. Our modelling focuses on wavelengths relevant for upcoming optical surveys, such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). In these simulations, we implement heating rates that are based on nuclear reaction network calculations. We create a Gaussian-process emulator for kilonova grey opacities, calibrated with detailed radiative transfer simulations. Using recent fits to numerical relativity simulations, we predict how the ejecta parameters from binary neutron star (BNS) mergers shape the population of kilonovae, accounting for the viewing-angle dependence. Our simulated population of BNS mergers produce peak i-band absolute magnitudes of −20 ≤ Mi ≤ −11. A comparison with detailed radiative transfer calculations indicates that further improvements are needed to accurately reproduce spectral shapes over the full light curve evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Forward Modeling Populations of Flares from Tidal Disruptions of Stars by Supermassive Black Holes

Detections of the tidal disruption flares (TDFs) of stars by supermassive black holes (SMBHs) are rapidly accumulating as optical surveys improve. These detections may provide constraints on SMBH demographics, stellar dynamics, and stellar evolution in galaxies. To maximize this scientific impact, we require a better understanding of how astrophysical parameters interact with survey selection effects in setting the properties of detected flares. In this study, we develop a framework for modeling the distributions of optical TDF detections in surveys across attributes of the host galaxies and the flares themselves. This model folds in effects of the stellar disruption rate in each galaxy, the flare luminosity and temperature distributions, the effects of obscuration and reddening by dust in the host galaxy, and survey selection criteria. We directly apply this model to the sample of TDFs detected by the Zwicky Transient Facility, and find that the overall flare detection rate is in line with simple theoretical expectation. The model can also reproduce the distribution of total stellar mass and redshift of the host galaxies, but fails to match all details of the detected flares, such as their luminosity and temperature distributions. We also find that dust obscuration likely plays an important role in suppressing the TDF detection rate in star-forming galaxies. While we do not find that the unusual preference of TDFs to have hosts in post-starburst galaxies in the "green valley" can be entirely explained by selection effects, our model can help to quantify the true rate enhancement in those galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demonstrating the impact of ro-vibrationally excited H 2 on divertor detachment via population modelling

EDGE2D-EIRENE profiles characteristic for low recycling, high recycling and detached plasmas are postprocessed applying a vibrationally resolved collisional radiative (CR) model based on the Yacora solver to predict excited state densities and thus the molecular Lyman-, Werner- and Fulcher band emission intensities. These emission intensities are compared to predictions from the AMJUEL database standardly used in EIRENE. Lower Fulcher band and higher Lyman- and Werner band emission is predicted by the Yacora model in comparison to AMJUEL suggesting that inconsistent results from model based evaluation of measured spectra are expected depending on which model and molecular emission band is considered. The implications on detachment rate predictions are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

PopGNN: Graph Neural Network-Based Flexible Future Population Forecasting Model

Accurate population forecasts is important to plan critical infrastructure and services, from housing and education to healthcare and transport. However, traditional population prediction studies have only employed traditional machine learning models limited to capture complex spatial interdependencies and patterns. Althogh recently computer vision-based framework was introduced with with promising accuracy, it has critical limitations for real-world planning applications: it function only at fixed spatial resolutions, restricting their use in diverse boundaries such as census tracts, neighborhoods, or administrative zones. Therefore, this study suggests a Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based population prediction framework, called PopGNN. This model recorded remarkable performance compared with state-of-the-art models and traditional baseline models in the grid and administrative boundaries. Furthermore, our framework achieved comparable predictive accuracy to a computer vision-based model in both the South Korea and Tennessee case studies. Consequently, this study is valuable in that a single model can provide accurate population forecasts that address diverse planning demands, ranging from granular grid-level estimates for precise service allocation and facility location planning to aggregate administrative-level forecasts for macro-scale regional policy and resource distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fusing time-varying mosquito data and continuous mosquito population dynamics models

Climate change is arguably one of the most pressing issues affecting the world today and requires the fusion of disparate data streams to accurately model its impacts. Mosquito populations respond to temperature and precipitation in a nonlinear way, making predicting climate impacts on mosquito-borne diseases an ongoing challenge. Data-driven approaches for accurately modeling mosquito populations are needed for predicting mosquito-borne disease risk under climate change scenarios. Many current models for disease transmission are continuous and autonomous, while mosquito data is discrete and varies both within and between seasons. This study uses an optimization framework to fit a non-autonomous logistic model with periodic net growth rate and carrying capacity parameters for 15 years of daily mosquito time-series data from the Greater Toronto Area of Canada. The resulting parameters accurately capture the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability of mosquito populations within a single geographic region, and a variance-based sensitivity analysis highlights the influence each parameter has on the peak magnitude and timing of the mosquito season. This method can easily extend to other geographic regions and be integrated into a larger disease transmission model. This method addresses the ongoing challenges of data and model fusion by serving as a link between discrete time-series data and continuous differential equations for mosquito-borne epidemiology models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting biomass comminution: Physical experiment, population balance model, and deep learning

An extended population balance model (PBM) and a deep learning-based enhanced deep neural operator (DNO+) model are introduced for predicting particle size distribution (PSD) of comminuted biomass through a large knife mill. Experimental tests using corn stalks with varied moisture contents, mill blade speeds, and discharge screen sizes are conducted to support model development. A novel mechanism in the extended PBM allows for including additional input parameters such as moisture content, which is not possible in the original PBM. The DNO+ model can include influencing factors of different data types such as moisture content and discharge screen size, which significantly extends the engineering applicability of the standard DNO model that only admits feed PSD and outcome PSD. Test results show that both models are remarkably accurate in the calibration or training parameter space and can be used as surrogate models to provide effective guidance for biomass preprocessing design.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Population Balance Models for Catalytic Depolymerization: From Elementary Steps to Multiphase Reactors

Here, the ongoing accumulation of plastic waste in landfills and in the environment is driving research on chemical processes and catalysts to recycle polymers. Traditional modeling strategies are not applicable to these processes because they involve too many reactants and intermediates, one for each molecular weight and each functionalization. To model the kinetics, we have developed population balance models (PBMs) that account for macromolecular reactants in the bulk and macromolecular catalytic intermediates. These PBMs couple to each other through polymer adsorption and desorption models and to traditional rate equations for small molecule products and co-reactants (like hydrogen or ethylene). The models, in combination with experimental data, are being used in many ways: (i) to test mechanistic hypotheses, (ii) to extract rate parameters, (iii) to quantitatively compare catalyst activities, (iv) to account for mass transfer and vapor–liquid partitioning in two-phase reactors, and (v) to design novel support architectures and catalysts that mimic the processive action of natural depolymerization enzymes. Some key theoretical advances allow PBMs to be constructed from elementary rates and mechanisms, as opposed to traditional formulations with pseudoelementary rate parameters invoked as fitting parameters. We discuss ways to build these models “bottom-up” from first-principles calculations and ways to extract model parameters from “top down” analyses of rate data. The combination provides a quantitative bridge between first-principles calculations and the kinetics of complex macromolecular transformations for polymer upcycling and beyond.

Manis, Lela K. [University of Illinois at Urbana-C↗
DOE OSTI2026

Two-population Rouse models for polymer segmental dynamics in nanocomposites

Segmental dynamics of polymer chains in a model nanocomposite of poly(ethylene oxide) and silica nanoparticles (NPs) was investigated using quasielastic neutron scattering. The dynamics can be accurately described with the Rouse model. The bulklike polymer far from the NP surface behaves as the neat polymer. However, the slower polymer in the interface close to the NP surface is described either with a second Rouse population with different relaxation time or using the suppressed Rouse model. These simple two-population models accurately reproduce the experimental data, with the suppressed Rouse model describing topological constraints, on average, every 12 beads with an interfacial thickness up to 13.5 beads, and the effect of the interface extending to a layer of thickness comparable to the end-to-end distance of the polymer. This modeling provides an explanation for the observed reinforcement in PNC even at low loadings, consistent with current understanding of the relevance of the interphase.

Composite materials↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale Models for Fibril Formation: Rare Events Methods, Microkinetic Models, and Population Balances

Amyloid fibrils are thought to grow by a two-step dock-lock mechanism. However, previous simulations of fibril formation (i) overlook the bi-molecular nature of the docking step and obtain rates with first-order units, or (ii) superimpose the docked and locked states when computing the potential of mean force for association and thereby muddle the docking and locking steps. Here, we developed a simple microkinetic model with separate locking and docking steps and with the appropriate concentration dependences for each step. We constructed a simple model comprised of chiral dumbbells that retains qualitative aspects of fibril formation. We used rare events methods to predict separate docking and locking rate constants for the model. The rate constants were embedded in the microkinetic model, with the microkinetic model embedded in a population balance model for “bottom-up” multiscale fibril growth rate predictions. These were compared to “top-down” results using simulation data with the same model and multiscale framework to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the separate lock and dock rate constants. We used the same procedures to extract separate docking and locking rate constants from experimental fibril growth data. Our multiscale strategy, embedding rate theories, and kinetic models in conservation laws should help to extract docking and locking rate constants from experimental data or long molecular simulations with correct units and without compromising the molecular description.

Shayesteh Zadeh, Armin (ORCID:0000000299896710)↗