Evaluating Potential Benefits of Flexible Solar Power Generation in the Southern Company System
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Energy & Fuels↗
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MODFLOW6 models used to evaluate potential stresses and hydrologic conditions driving water-level fluctuations in well ER-5-3-2, Frenchman Flat, Southern Nevada
The hydrograph for well ER-5-3-2 in Frenchman Flat, southern Nevada, has previously unexplained water-level fluctuations. Four, three-dimensional, groundwater models (MODFLOW 6) were developed to evaluate potential stresses and hydrologic conditions affecting the well ER-5-3-2 hydrograph. Four model scenarios were developed that simulated: (1) wellbore leakage without recharge, (2) wellbore leakage with recharge, (3) shallow (low transmissivity) and deep (high transmissivity) carbonate rocks, and (4) lateral heterogeneity of carbonate rocks. Input and output files for the four model scenarios are in the model and output directories, respectively. Hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, and wellbore-leakage rates (when simulated) were estimated with parameter estimation (PEST) by minimizing a weighted composite, sum-of-squares objective function. The objective function was informed by measurement and Tikhonov regularization observations. Measurement observations included drawdowns from the constant-rate aquifer test and water-level altitudes measured in well ER-5-3-2 from 2001-2021. Tikhonov regularization informed hydraulic conductivity and specific storage parameters that were insensitive to measurement observations, where homogeneity was the preferred relation. Batch files, executables, and MODFLOW 6, PEST, and post-processing utilities are in the ancillary directory. Supplementary data also are included in the ancillary directory, including site information, high-frequency water-level and aquifer-test data, transmissivity estimates, water-chemistry data, and water-temperature analyses. This USGS data release contains data, analyses, and model files for the simulations and analysis results described in U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20225132).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Energy-saving potential evaluation for primary schools with occupant-centric controls
Recent studies demonstrated that there is significant energy-saving potential for primary schools, which heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems with occupant-centric control (OCC) is an excellent candidate to save energy. However, such an energy impact has yet to be evaluated for different climate zones as well as different energy code versions, but is critical for technology transfer and deployment. Therefore, this paper conducts comprehensive evaluation on the energy-saving potentials for the primary schools with two advanced OCC strategies: presence-based and counting-based. In this work, ninety-six building energy models with stochastic behavior of occupants are developed and simulated, which consist of two building energy code versions, 16 climate zones, and baseline case (without OCC) and two advanced cases (with OCC). To evaluate the energy saving potentials for OCC, primary schools in the U.S. are used as an example. The results show that there is significant energy-saving potential for primary schools by considering OCC strategies, especially the counting-based case. The energy-saving potential is up to 10.2% for presence-based OCC and 12.41% for counting-based OCC. Furthermore, both climate and code version have a significant impact on energy savings from OCC strategies. The energy-saving potentials vary from 1.79% to 12.41% for different climates and code versions. This evaluation can also contribute to quantify the nationwide energy saving potential for other countries.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Nationwide Energy Saving Potential Evaluation for Office Buildings with Occupant-Based Building Controls
The heating ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) system is a major contributor to building energy consumption. This paper aims to quantify the nationwide energy savings potential of implementing the occupancy-based control (OBC) for the HVAC system in typical medium-sized office buildings using a whole building simulation program (i.e., EnergyPlus). First, the medium-sized office from the DOE Commercial Prototype Building Models was modified to have detailed layout and space functions. Then, a statistic-algorithm-based tool was used to generate the dynamic occupancy schedules for various rooms. Next, both a baseline case and two OBC cases were created for the comparison based on the updated ASHRAE Standard 90.1 and ASHRAE Guideline 36. The HVAC operation in the baseline case follows a static occupancy schedule and fixed setpoint schedules for both room air temperatures and minimal system outside air flowrates, while the proposed OBC cases use the room temperature reset, system minimum outdoor airflow reset, and zone minimal supply airflow rate reset. These cases were extended to five climate zones in the United States to further quantify the energy savings potential associated with the OBC on a nationwide scale. The preliminary result of this case study shows that there could be significant energy savings potential from the proposed OBC strategies in medium-sized office buildings in the United States.
Pang, Zhihong↗
Techno-Economic Analysis for the Production of Algal Biomass via Closed Photobioreactors: Future Cost Potential Evaluated Across a Range of Cultivation System Designs
In this assessment, we have evaluated target minimum biomass selling prices (MBSPs) of algae biomass production for four photobioreactor (PBR) designs compared to a previous open pond target case. We utilized techno-economic assessment modeling to determine if the target PBR cases can compete with open ponds for low-cost commodity fuels in an 'n th -plant' scenario. In the process, algal biomass is produced in one of the five cultivation options, including: open ponds, horizontal tubes, helical tubes, and two vertical bag/panel designs termed 'GWP-II flat panels' and 'Leidos hanging bags.' The projected target cultivation productivity for each PBR design was estimated based on the most credible literature data presenting PBR and pond cultivation on a directly comparable basis, and then extrapolating out to the future. Resulting productivities on an aerial basis were estimated to range from 25 g/m 2 /day to 52.5 g/m 2 /day (cultivation area). CO 2 , nutrients, and algae inoculum are supplied to the production area. After cultivation, the biomass is dewatered to 20 wt% solids in three stages including in-ground gravity settling, membrane filtration, and centrifugation. CO 2 piping, water piping, and storage are also included in the analysis. Based on our recently published 'algae farm' design report, the open pond cultivation benchmark was set at an MBSP of $494/ton ash-free dry weight (AFDW). The horizontal tubes are large volume reactors with productivity similar to that of open ponds, but result in an MBSP of $708/ton AFDW. The helical tubes are made from glass and have a high capital investment resulting in a MBSP of $1,737/ton AFDW. The GWP-II PBR is a vertical flexible plastic flat-panel system with an estimated MBSP of $1,793/ton AFDW. Finally, the Leidos hanging bag system, which derives cultivation cost values based on inputs furnished by Algenol, results in an estimated MBSP of $639/ton AFDW.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Verifying Simulator Readiness for Evaluating Potential Exascale Interconnect Technologies [PowerPoint]
Goals of the milestone are to: verify key hardware contention models in controlled environment; validate simulator readiness for future milestones; and, provide baseline to define cross-validation workflow across teams for ''bracketing'' results.
42 ENGINEERING↗
239Pu(n,f) PFNS evaluation: potential release candidate [Slides]
Abstract not provided.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Evaluating potential leakage risks during pre-injection characterization stage amidst uncertainty
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Earth Sciences↗
Critical fuel property evaluation for potential gasoline and diesel biofuel blendstocks with low sample volume availability
Not Available
Polikarpov, Evgueni (ORCID:000000028089810X)↗
Economic and Environmental Analysis to Evaluate the Potential Value of Co-Optima Diesel Bioblendstocks to Petroleum Refiners
The U.S. petroleum refining sector is undergoing a period of historic transformation, catalyzed by the decarbonization of the U.S. economy. Diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks have gained traction, owing to their superior fuel properties and environmental performance as compared to traditional petroleum fuels. This work couples refinery linear programming models with life cycle assessment to quantify the potential economic and environmental benefits, and trade-offs, of blending diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks at petroleum refineries. Linear programming models were developed in Aspen Process Industry Modeling Systems (PIMS) for three representative petroleum refinery configurations of differing complexity. Seven diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks: 4-butoxyheptane, 5-ethyl-4-propylnonane, soy biodiesel, sludge hydrothermal liquefaction diesel, polyoxymethylene ethers, renewable diesel, and hexyl hexanoate, were investigated to identify key fuel properties that influence refineries' economics and to track the effect of adding bioblendstocks on refinery-wide cradle-to-gate greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. These analyses considered blending levels from 10 to 30 vol% and fuel demand projections over the period 2040 to 2050. This analysis determines that bioblendstock sulfur content and cetane number are the primary fuel attributes with the potential to provide value to refiners. Life cycle assessment results indicate that the use of diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks can reduce cradle-to-gate refinery GHG emissions by up to ~ 40 % relative to conventional refinery operations when considering carbon uptake in the supply chain of the bioblendstock. Refinery-wide marginal GHG abatement costs range from 120 to 3,600 USD2016/metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent avoided across the scenarios evaluated. Reducing the price of bioblendstocks is identified as a key to their adoption.
ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,BIOMASS FUELS,ENERGY P↗
Evaluating the potential for bird‐habitat models to support biodiversity‐friendly urban planning
Abstract Urban expansion poses a major threat to wildlife populations. Biodiversity‐friendly urban landscapes could deliver benefits for both wildlife and people, by incorporating conservation and ecosystem services objectives. Well‐designed urban developments could also soften the ecological impacts of urbanization. However, delivering urban landscapes that integrate biodiversity requirements effectively remains challenging. Ecological models, designed to predict wildlife population responses to alternative urban designs, could prove effective in supporting the creation of biodiversity‐friendly urban landscapes. Here, we combine national‐scale bird abundance data with high resolution, spatially explicit habitat data to characterize relationships between bird densities and urban landscape form in Britain. From these analyses and cross validation, we evaluate the potential for well‐parameterized, species‐specific models to be used to predict bird densities in novel or modified urban areas. Our analyses indicate that responses of bird abundance to urban habitat are species‐specific and complex, with few variables consistently affecting a large proportion of species. However, contiguous areas of greenspace within urban sites are preferential for accommodating breeding birds, compared to a more fragmented arrangement of multiple, small greenspace patches. In combination, the bird‐habitat relationships identified could successfully predict observed variation in abundance for most bird species considered. Further evaluation of habitat descriptor variables, spatial scales of species' habitat use and analytical modelling approaches may be needed to improve the predictive ability of bird‐habitat models for certain species, particularly waterbirds and those observed less frequently in urban areas. Synthesis and applications . We modelled breeding bird abundance in built‐up areas with respect to the characteristics and contexts of urban environments. While most variables were important for multiple species, responses overall were species‐specific, so simple assemblage metrics, like diversity, will not describe the variation in bird communities well. However, the results illustrate the potential of an evidence‐based, spatially explicit evaluation of urban development impacts on biodiversity, by predicting the consequences for bird numbers. Subject to verification of predictive ability, practitioners can apply the models to compare, for example, land‐sparing and sharing within developments, or to quantify the biodiversity requirements for effective offsetting. This would be facilitated by incorporation into an online tool allowing user‐determined input scenarios.
Plummer, Kate E.↗
Transfer and Flushing Evaluation for Potential Precipitated Solids in the 241-AP-106 to EMF Transfer Pipeline for DFLAW
Waste transfer pipeline flushing is necessary to maintain pipeline performance, but added flush fluid increases the nuclear waste inventory. During the Direct Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) mission, waste transfer lines from the Interim Low-Activity Waste Storage Tank (i.e., 241-AP-106) to the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Low-Activity Waste (LAW) Facility must have the capability of being flushed to prevent accumulation of solids and to mitigate corrosion concerns. Operational experience at Hanford has shown that the solids precipitation occurs during processing operations from dilute Hanford liquids. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory was requested to evaluate the potential precipitated solid particle transport and flushing operational capabilities of the AP-106 through the Effluent Management Facility (EMF) low-point drain LAW feed pipeline. The evaluation results do not provide operational requirements, but rather provide a scoping basis for understanding the potential operational significance of solids precipitation in the pipeline. The salt and aluminum phase solids most likely to precipitate from the LAW feeds during cooling, evaporation, or mixing have particle densities that are estimated to range from 1.62 to 2.78 g/mL and a spherical particle size range of 8 to 2100 μm, depending on the solid phase considered. Application of the method to calculate the critical deposition velocity required by TFC-ENG-STD-26 at conservatively bounding estimates for the solids concentrations demonstrates that potentially precipitated solids may deposit on the bottom of the transfer pipe invert at the lower LAW feed pipeline flow rate, but the upper LAW feed pipeline flow rate will likely prevent deposition. The system pressure limit for the AP-106 through the EMF low-point drain LAW feed pipeline likely exceeds any pressure loss at a calculated critical deposition velocity even for the most adverse potential precipitated solid. However, should solids settle as a result of no-flow conditions, the flow capabilities of the AP-106 through the EMF low-point drain LAW feed pipeline are shown, based on the available literature, to be potentially inadequate for effective flushing operations to remove solids, even at solids concentrations below the maximum specified for LAW feed. Thus, stepwise solids accumulations over multiple transfers may be an issue, and eventual line plugging may occur. Further inadequacies may potentially be realized should the cohesive nature of certain precipitates be accounted for.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Identification and Clinical Evaluation of Potential Biomarkers for Breast Cancer Resistance Protein ( BCRP / ABCG2 )
Clinical inhibition and genetic variation of the Breast Cancer Resistance Protein (BCRP/ABCG2) efflux transporter can significantly influence drug exposure, highlighting the need for reliable BCRP functional biomarkers. This study aimed to identify and evaluate biomarkers predictive of BCRP function in humans. A comprehensive analysis of metabolomic genome‐wide association studies (mGWAS) was conducted to discover potential BCRP biomarkers, followed by evaluation inin vitrotransporter assays and a clinical drug–drug interaction (DDI) study. Across multiple mGWAS datasets, plasma concentrations of three herbicide derivatives—4‐hydroxychlorothalonil (4HC), 3‐bromo‐5‐chloro‐2,6‐dihydroxybenzoic acid (BCDBA), and 3,5‐dichloro‐2,6‐dihydroxybenzoic acid (DCDBA)—were significantly elevated (P < 5E‐8) in individuals carrying reduced functionABCG2polymorphisms. These compounds were confirmed as novel BCRP substrates via transporter uptake assays and selected for clinical evaluation alongside riboflavin, a known BCRP substrate and potential BCRP biomarker. In a DDI study with 11 healthy subjects, eltrombopag, a BCRP inhibitor, increased rosuvastatin concentrations by approximately twofold (P = 0.002). No significant changes in the plasma concentrations of organic anion transporting polypeptide 1B (OATP1B) biomarkers (CP‐I and CP‐III) or potential BCRP biomarkers (4HC, BCDBA, DCDBA, or riboflavin) were observed. Notably, two subjects were heterozygous carriers for theABCG2p.Q141K variant and exhibited significantly higher baseline concentrations of 4HC (P = 0.004) and BCDBA (P = 0.0003), consistent with reduced BCRP function. These findings suggest that 4HC and BCDBA are promising biomarkers for baseline BCRP function in specific populations, such as those harboring reduced function genetic polymorphisms, but do not appear suitable for detecting acute BCRP inhibition.
Pharmacology & Pharmacy↗
Evaluating the Potential and Challenges of an Uncertainty Quantification Method for Long Short–Term Memory Models for Soil Moisture Predictions
Recently, recurrent deep networks have shown promise to harness newly available satellite–sensed data for long–term soil moisture projections. However, to be useful in forecasting, deep networks must also provide uncertainty estimates. Here we evaluated Monte Carlo dropout with an input–dependent data noise term (MCD+N), an efficient uncertainty estimation framework originally developed in computer vision, for hydrologic time series predictions. MCD+N simultaneously estimates a heteroscedastic input–dependent data noise term (a trained error model attributable to observational noise) and a network weight uncertainty term (attributable to insufficiently constrained model parameters). Although MCD+N has appealing features, many heuristic approximations were employed during its derivation, and rigorous evaluations and evidence of its asserted capability to detect dissimilarity were lacking. To address this, we provided an in–depth evaluation of the scheme's potential and limitations. We showed that for reproducing soil moisture dynamics recorded by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, MCD+N indeed gave a good estimate of predictive error, provided that we tuned a hyperparameter and used a representative training data set. The input–dependent term responded strongly to observational noise, while the model term clearly acted as a detector for physiographic dissimilarity from the training data, behaving as intended. However, when the training and test data were characteristically different, the input–dependent term could be misled, undermining its reliability. Additionally, due to the data–driven nature of the model, data noise also influences network weight uncertainty, and therefore the two uncertainty terms are correlated. Altogether, this approach has promise, but care is needed to interpret the results.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Updated evaluation of potential ultralow Q -value β -decay candidates
“Ultralow” Q-value β decays are referred to as such due to their low decay energies of less than ≈1 keV. Such a low energy decay is possible when the parent nucleus decays to an excited state in the daughter, with an energy close to that of the Q value. These decays are of interest as potential new candidates for neutrino mass determination experiments and as a testing ground for studies of atomic interference effects in the nuclear decay process. In this paper, we provide an updated evaluation of atomic mass data and nuclear energy-level data to identify potential ultralow Q-value β decay candidates. For many of these candidates, more precise and accurate atomic mass data is needed to determine if the Q value of the potential ultralow decay branch is energetically allowed and in fact ultralow. Furthermore, the relevant precise atomic mass measurements can be achieved via Penning trap mass spectrometry.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Development of a Preliminary Performance Assessment to Support Single-Shell Tank Waste Retrieval - 19446
A preliminary Performance Assessment (PA) of Single-Shell Tank (SST) Waste Management Area A-AX (WMA A-AX) located at DoE's Hanford Site in southeastern Washington is being conducted to satisfy the requirements of the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (HFFACO), as well as other Federal and State requirements of closure plans and permits. The WMA A-AX PA effort is assessing the fate, transport, and impacts of radionuclides and hazardous chemicals within residual wastes left in tanks, ancillary equipment, and facilities in their assumed closed configuration, and the subsequent risks to humans into the far future. WMA A-AX includes the 241-A Tank Farm (A Farm), the 241-AX Tank Farm (AX Farm), and the ancillary equipment associated with each Farm. There are six underground SSTs in A Farm, and four underground SSTs in AX Farm. Each of these SSTs have a storage capacity of 1,000,000 gallons. A complex waste transfer system of ancillary equipment supported the transfer and storage of waste within WMA A-AX SSTs. This ancillary equipment includes transfer lines, catch tanks, diversion boxes, vaults, valve pits, and other miscellaneous structures. This paper emphasizes the development of the PA effort focused on radiological impacts to meet the requirements for a closure authorization under DOE Order 435.1. Lessons learned from retrieval and development of a recently completed PA of the nearby Waste Management Area C (WMA C) led to the decision to develop a preliminary PA for WMA A-AX prior to initiation of retrieval efforts so that a site-specific risk management capability could be available to support anticipated retrieval decisions. The technical approach for the PA analysis includes developing both a process-level model using site-specific hydrogeological data, as well as a system-level model. The system model is being developed to facilitate uncertainty and sensitivity analyses being conducted in the PA effort. Preliminary results of the DOE Order 435.1 PA are evaluating potential impacts to the groundwater and air pathways to determine radiation exposure once radionuclides are released to the environment from residual waste after closure of the tank farm. To meet other analysis requirements in DOE Order 435.1, the PA effort must also evaluate potential radiological impacts from inadvertent intruder scenarios into the closed WMA A-AX facility. The results of the PA evaluation will be compared to performance objectives and measures in the DOE Order 435.1 to support retrieval and eventual closure decisions at WMA A-AX. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Evaluating the Potential for Tidal Phase Diversity to Produce Smoother Power Profiles
Although tidal energy conversion technologies are not yet commercially available or cost-competitive with other renewable energy technologies like wind turbines and solar panels, tides are a highly predictable resource. Tidal energy’s predictability indicates that the resource could introduce less volatility into balancing the electric grid when compared to other renewables, a fundamentally desirable attribute for the electric system. More specifically, tidal energy resources are unique in that they have the potential to produce relatively smoother power profiles over time through aggregation. In order to generate smooth power profiles from tidal resources, sufficient complexity within the timing of tides is necessary within electrical proximity. This study evaluates the concept of aggregating diverse tides for the purpose of reducing periods of no and low energy production and creating smoother power profiles in regions around Alaska and Washington by calculating cross-correlations of tidal current velocity time series. Ultimately, study results show limited potential to exploit the resources for this purpose and describe the institutional mechanisms necessary to realize the benefits in practice.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Machine Learning for Solar Accessibility: Implications for Low-Income Solar Expansion and Profitability
The solar industry in the US typically uses a credit score such as the FICO score as an indicator of consumer utility payment performance and credit worthiness to approve customers for new solar installations. Using data on over 800,000 utility payment performance and over 5,000 demographic variables, we compare machine learning and econometric models to predict the probability of default to credit-score cutoffs. Here, we compare these models across a variety of measures, including how they affect consumers of different socio-economic backgrounds and profitability. We find that a traditional regression analysis using a small number of variables specific to utility repayment performance greatly increases accuracy and LMI inclusivity relative to FICO score, and that using machine learning techniques further enhances model performance. Relative to FICO, the machine learning model increases the number of low-to-moderate income consumers approved for community solar by 1.1% to 4.2% depending on the stringency used for evaluating potential customers, while decreasing the default rate by 1.4 to 1.9 percentage points. Using electricity utility repayment as a proxy for solar installation repayment, shifting from a FICO score cutoff to the machine learning model increases profits by 34% to 1882% depending on the stringency used for evaluating potential customers.
Davuluri, Sruthi↗