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The Power Curve Working Group's Assessment of Wind Turbine Power Performance Prediction Methods

A wind turbine power curve is often only strictly valid for a subset of all atmospheric conditions (i.e., the inner range), while wind turbines also operate in other scenarios (i.e., the outer range). Hence, modeling the power output in real-world conditions is a fundamental challenge. For example, the power deviation matrix (PDM) in Figure 1 displays an overprediction of power production using a reference power curve when wind speed (WS) and turbulence intensity (TI) are both low. Many experts use the PDM approach to observe any systematic bias in power curves and correct this in energy yield models. The mission of the Power Curve Working Group (PCWG) is to bring together wind industry stakeholders to help identify, validate, and develop ways to improve modeling of wind turbine performance in all atmospheric conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Power Curve Working Group's assessment of wind turbine power performance prediction methods

Wind turbine power production deviates from the reference power curve in real-world atmospheric conditions. Correctly predicting turbine power performance requires models to be validated for a wide range of wind turbines using inflow in different locations. The Share-3 exercise is the most recent intelligence-sharing exercise of the Power Curve Working Group, which aims to advance the modeling of turbine performance. The goal of the exercise is to search for modeling methods that reduce error and uncertainty in power prediction when wind shear and turbulence digress from design conditions. Herein, we analyze data from 55 wind turbine power performance tests from nine contributing organizations with statistical tests to quantify the skills of the prediction-correction methods. We assess the accuracy and precision of four proposed trial methods against the baseline method, which uses the conventional definition of a power curve with wind speed and air density at hub height. The trial methods reduce power-production prediction errors compared to the baseline method at high wind speeds, which contribute heavily to power production; however, the trial methods fail to significantly reduce prediction uncertainty in most meteorological conditions. For the meteorological conditions when a wind turbine produces less than the power its reference power curve suggests, using power deviation matrices leads to more accurate power prediction. We also determine that for more than half of the submissions, the data set has a large influence on the effectiveness of a trial method. Overall, this work affirms the value of data-sharing efforts in advancing power curve modeling and establishes the groundwork for future collaborations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Implementing Machine Learning in the PCWG Tool

The Power Curve Working Group (www.pcwg.org) is an ad-hoc industry-led group to investigate the performance of wind turbines in real-world conditions. As part of ongoing experience-sharing exercises, machine learning has been proposed as a possible way to predict turbine performance. This presentation provides some background information about machine learning and how it might be implemented in the PCWG exercises.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Integral Full Core Multi-Physics PWR Benchmark with Measured Data

In recent years, the importance of modeling and simulation has been highlighted extensively in the DOE research portfolio with concrete examples in nuclear engineering with the CASL and NEAMS programs. These research efforts and similar efforts worldwide aim at the development of high-fidelity multi-physics analysis tools for the simulation of current and next-generation nuclear power reactors. Like all analysis tools, verification and validation is essential to guarantee proper functioning of the software and methods employed. The current approach relies mainly on the validation of single physic phenomena (e.g. critical experiment, flow loops, etc.) and there is a lack of relevant multiphysics benchmark measurements that are necessary to validate high-fidelity methods being developed today. This work introduces a new multi-cycle full-core Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) depletion benchmark based on two operational cycles of a commercial nuclear power plant that provides a detailed description of fuel assemblies, burnable absorbers, in-core fission detectors, core loading and re-loading patterns. This benchmark enables analysts to develop extremely detailed reactor core models that can be used for testing and validation of coupled neutron transport, thermal-hydraulics, and fuel isotopic depletion. The benchmark also provides measured reactor data for Hot Zero Power (HZP) physics tests, boron letdown curves, and three-dimensional in-core flux maps from 58 instrumented assemblies. The benchmark description is now available online and has been used by many groups. However, much work remains to be done on the quantification of uncertainties and modeling sensitivities. This work aims to address these deficiencies and make this benchmark a true non-proprietary international benchmark for the validation of high-fidelity tools. This report details the BEAVRS uncertainty quantification for the first two cycle of operations and serves as the final report of the project.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Analysis of Localized Deformation Processes in Highly Irradiated Austenitic Stainless Steel through In Situ Techniques

This report describes new experimental results obtained during in situ mechanical tests with neutron-irradiated (10.7 dpa) austenitic 304L steel specimens. The in situ tensile tests inside a scanning electron microscope (SEM) were accompanied by modern high-resolution electron backscatter diffraction (HR-EBSD) analysis. The HR-EBSD approach allowed for investigating and quantifying internal stresses and dislocation structures in nondeformed and deformed steels, materials used in light water reactor internal components. The literature regarding the HR-EBSD analysis of metals and alloys is very limited, and practically no publications on the HR-EBSD analysis coupled with in situ tests are available. Experimental work, performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Low Activation Materials Development and Analysis facility, is detailed in this report. Section 1 briefly describes strain and stress localization processes and underlines their importance and role in irradiated materials, materials used in nuclear power plants. The section demonstrates that very limited quantitative data exist regarding localized stresses and strains in the irradiated materials at the meso-level (i.e., inside the grain, for a group of interacting grains, or for channel–grain boundary [GB] interaction) whereas local stresses at GBs are key contributors to the stress corrosion crack initiation.Section 2 documents the key methods used to conduct the experimental work: the SEM/EBSD system, miniature tensile frame, and irradiated material. Irradiated specimen manufacturing is described, as this option may be of special interest for other projects. Section 3 provides details of the HR-EBSD in situ tests (e.g., tensile curves, geometry, dimensions of regions of interest, load, and deformation steps). Section 4 discusses the results related to the evolution of geometrically necessary dislocations (GNDs) and their density, spatial, and statistical distributions.Section 5 focuses on the HR-EBSD analysis with respect to a channel–GB interaction. Two aspects are discussed in detail: mapping and analyzing the GND fields before and after loading, and the possibility of investigating local stresses and elastic strains at the channel–GB interaction. The present work results are beneficial for understanding strain and stress localization processes leading to crack initiation, for analyzing the material after long-term in-service life, and for developing predictive models. Section 6 summarizes the work performed and discusses future activities within this research direction.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Estimation of the Thermal-Fluids and Thermal-Structural Performance of Helium-Cooled Modular Finger-Type Divertors

Over the past decade, our group has investigated the thermal-fluid performance of the helium-cooled modular divertor with multiple jets (HEMJ) and a simplified “flat” design of the HEMJ for long-pulse magnetic fusion energy (MFE) reactors. Experimental studies were performed in a helium (He) loop at the prototypical pressure of 10 MPa, nearly prototypical He temperatures and incident heat fluxes using test sections made from stainless steel and tungsten alloys. Correlations for average Nusselt numbers and pressure loss coefficients were developed from the data and are used to validate computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models. Here, this work presents updated thermal-fluids performance curves based on these correlations that estimate the maximum heat flux that can be accommodated by the plasma-facing surface and coolant pumping power requirements at prototypical operating conditions. Thermal-structural performance curves developed from ITER structural design criteria are introduced, which include protection against ductile and non-ductile failure, ratcheting fatigue, and creep fatigue. The performance design curves for these finger-type divertors demonstrate that the “flat” design, with a significantly less complicated geometry than the HEMJ, has thermal-fluid and thermal-structural performance comparable to the original HEMJ concept, and may be superior in terms of non-ductile failure criteria.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Energy Efficiency and Infrastructure Upgrades on Nuclear Clean-up Sites: The Hanford Experience - 18641

The Hanford site, located in southeastern Washington, produced much of our nation's weapons-grade plutonium for the Defense nuclear weapons program. This production lasted the better part of four decades with production ending in 1987. Since 1987, the focus of the Hanford site has turned to clean-up activities. Mission Support Alliance (MSA) is the integrator of the multi-contractor effort to clean up the Hanford site. MSA collaborates with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and all Hanford site contractors in finding and implementing new, cost-saving, safe and practical solutions to cleanup challenges with a continual focus on innovative processes and technologies that reduce costs, energy use and bring safety improvements to the site. Support Services include environmental integration and land management; fleet and road maintenance; water/electric and utilities; cyber security and information management as well as the preservation of the site's cultural artifacts. This paper describes the process, challenges, and focus on infrastructure upgrade and energy efficiency projects in the context of a multi-contractor nuclear clean-up site. Project development and new technology deployment at Hanford has long been plagued with economic challenges. For example, despite extensive auditing, analysis, and project development, most of the energy-related projects on the Hanford site have gone unfunded due to the low cost of electricity, the relatively high cost of labor, and costs associated with detailed safety and cultural reviews. - The Hanford site is a direct-service customer of the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and has a marginal electricity rate of $0.033/kWh. - Labor costs on the Hanford site track high because of the requirements associated with the safety and security necessary to operate a legacy nuclear weapons complex. - In partnership with three federally recognized and other affected Native American tribes (Yakama Nation, Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation, the Nez Perce Tribe, and Wanapum People), most activities on the Hanford site are afforded in-depth cultural reviews. To work within these constraints, the MSA Energy Management team has embarked on a three-pronged approach to energy project development: Program Visibility: The MSA Energy Management team has promoted both project opportunities and requirements across the Hanford site. This information comes in the form of site-wide newsletters, group meetings, e-mails, success stories, and recognition of staff. Single-point Analysis: To by-pass the inevitable duplications of effort, learning curve issues, and to improve project consistency/delivery, the MSA Energy Management team serves as the single resource to the site for energy project analysis. This resource includes initial assessment, engineering analysis, efficiency calculation and project recommendations. Contractor/utility Interface: In addition to the infrastructure under its own purview, MSA provides all support services for the contractor/utility interface. These activities include formulation and submission of incentive-based efficiency projects, project tracking, and incentive awards. All incentive awards are forwarded to the relevant contractor and then highlighted in the visibility campaign. Successful energy efficiency projects at Hanford have included high efficiency heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) systems, interior and exterior lighting/lighting control systems, pump and motor systems, and the right-sizing of transformers and area-wide electrical distribution systems. Prior to the initiation of this program and structure (roughly 3 years ago) the average annual energy efficiency incentive applied for and received was under $10,000, with an annual energy savings of approximately 36,000 kilowatt hours (kWh). In fiscal year 2017, the annual incentive received was over $419,000, with identified energy savings of over 1.3 million kWh. Details and case studies of the major project accomplishments are included. The success of this program can be traced to an understanding of the constraints, the development of a program to address these constraints, and good communication/coordination across DOE and the multiple contractors serving the Hanford site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Hierarchically Porous Carbons with Highly Curved Surfaces for Hosting Single Metal FeN 4 Sites as Outstanding Oxygen Reduction Catalysts

Iron–nitrogen–carbon (Fe₋N₋C) materials have emerged as a promising alternative to platinum-group metals for catalyzing the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) in proton-exchange-membrane fuel cells. However, their low intrinsic activity and stability are major impediments. Herein, an Fe₋N–C electrocatalyst with dense FeN 4 sites on hierarchically porous carbons with highly curved surfaces (denoted as FeN 4 - hc C) is reported. The FeN 4 - hc C catalyst displays exceptional ORR activity in acidic media, with a high half-wave potential of 0.85 V (versus reversible hydrogen electrode) in 0.5 m H 2 SO 4 . When integrated into a membrane electrode assembly, the corresponding cathode displays a high maximum peak power density of 0.592 W cm -2 and demonstrates operating durability over 30 000 cycles under harsh H 2 /air conditions, outperforming previously reported Fe–N₋C electrocatalysts. These experimental and theoretical studies suggest that the curved carbon support fine-tunes the local coordination environment, lowers the energies of the Fe d-band centers, and inhibits the adsorption of oxygenated species, which can enhance the ORR activity and stability. This work provides new insight into the carbon nanostructure–activity correlation for ORR catalysis. It also offers a new approach to designing advanced single-metal-site catalysts for energy-conversion applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Performance Assessment of a New Gamma Spectroscopy Toolkit: Peak Doctor and the Spectral Nondestructive Assay Platform (SNAP) - 17397

High resolution gamma spectroscopy (HRGS) is a widely used technique for non-destructive characterization of nuclear materials, and assay of radioactive waste. The ability to accurately evaluate raw spectral data is an important step in producing high-quality results. A spectral analysis application known as Peak Doctor has been developed under a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) between LANL and Pajarito Scientific Corporation (PSC). The software has undergone several years of testing and validation by the Radioactive Waste Characterization Team of the LANL Waste Management Services Group (WM-SVS). PeakDoctor is designed to work with the Spectral Nondestructive Assay Platform (SNAP{sup TM}) to provide a complete HRGS analysis engine. SNAP{sup TM} performs model specific corrections for attenuation and geometry. These applications are the major components of a new toolkit designed primarily for portable far-field non-destructive assay. Peak Doctor performs a very accurate peak fit analysis with the goal of improving upon the capabilities of existing commercially available routines. It is designed to be user-configurable and can be customized to any given type of detector and any given type of spectrum. Peak Doctor was developed to resolve many of the inherent complexities in gamma ray spectra including overlapping peaks, complex multiplet regions, large step peaks, backscatter regions and Compton edges. Unlike most spectral analysis platforms, Peak Doctor does not rely on the energy calibration and detector resolution parameters that are saved by the operator in the spectrum file. Instead, key parameters are pre-defined for individual detectors. The software fits a continuum using a series of splines between a series of junctions or 'knots'. Fitting techniques are used to join the splines together to create a near-continuous multi-element curve. Optimizing the location of the knots is one of Peak Doctor's most powerful features. The knots are initially configured using a pre-defined list and are removed or added automatically during the fitting process. Knots are also created when new features are identified such as Step Peaks and Compton Edges. The user can also manually specify knots in order to improve the continuum fit. The initial fit is improved on by removing any outlier regions (which are converted to peaks) and the continuum fitting process is repeated. At this stage, an experienced user can work interactively with the fit by manually converting peak regions to continuum or vice versa. The final step is to fit a series of peaks above the continuum based on detector parameters. Single and multiplet peaks are then processed by either the tailing (piecewise) or non-tailing (Gaussian) Levenberg Marquardt non-linear peak fitting routine depending on the user defined selection. Only a rough knowledge of the detector characteristics (energy calibration and resolution) is required for the fitting process to proceed with good accuracy. Any peaks that are missed can be manually added by the user and will also be fitted. Discontinuities in the peak / continuum fit can be rapidly identified by reviewing the 'residuals scale' plot. For waste streams that are well characterized, it is often the case that routinely encountered spectra will have similar peaks and continuum features. For these cases a handy 'One Step' method is available that proceeds in an automated fashion without user interaction. Peak Doctor has been configured with a set of default spectrum types including plutonium / transuranic waste (including Weapons Grade Pu, Heat Source Pu, Am-241, Am-243 and Np-237), depleted or enriched uranium, nuclear power plant / intermediate level waste (with fission and activation products such as Cs-137 and Co-60) as well as Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials (NORM). The user can easily add new spectrum types for specific waste streams or other types of radiological / special nuclear materials. The output from PeakDoctor (including net peak area, centroid energy and a list of minimum detectable activity levels at pre-defined regions) is used by SNAP{sup TM} to complete the data analysis process. Isotope activities are calculated using configurable template-driven geometry and attenuation correction methods. The software accounts for matrix and container wall effects, collimator / angular corrections, detector efficiency (based on calibration curves) and stand-off distance. SNAP{sup TM} uses published algorithms incorporating a series of decision points during its operation to allow the analyst to provide logical input to guide the software during the analysis of each unique spectrum. The Peak Doctor / SNAP{sup TM} toolkit has been extensively tested and validated under a variety of conditions using 'benchmark' reference spectra. Test scenarios reported include HPGe-based measurements of well characterized uranium and plutonium standards and radioactive sources with a variety of different geometries and matrix materials including surrogate drums and boxes. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Coupled Decay Heat and Thermal Hydraulic Capability for Loss-of-Coolant Accident Simulations

As the nuclear energy industry considers ways to achieve improved economics in the current fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs), one possible approach is to operate each cycle for longer durations. This causes a greater portion of the fuel to be burned and reduces the frequency of outages, which ultimately reduces the cost to operate the reactor. However, this also leads to higher burnup fuels than has traditionally been allowed in these reactors. Thus, there are concerns about integrity of high-burnup (HBu) fuel, especially during accident conditions such as loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs), as shown by Capps et al.. To investigate these concerns, advanced modeling and simulation capabilities are being leveraged to determine the susceptibility of HBu fuel to fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersion (FFRD). Improvements have previously been made to fuel performance capabilities to more accurately model these phenomena; multiphysics simulations have also been conducted to determine the power and burnup histories of the HBu fuel, which are needed as inputs for the fuel performance calculations. Most recently, new statistical approaches have been developed to identify a subset of fuel rods that have greater FFRD susceptibility, reducing the total number of fuel performance simulations required. Prior LOCA simulations have relied on the TRACE systems code, which can model the core and primary loop during accident conditions. TRACE includes many models for various aspects of the primary loop, but two sets of models are important for this report. First, TRACE uses a lumped-fuel approach for modeling the core. This approximates the ~50,000 fuel rods in the core with a much smaller number of rods. The rods can be lumped in various ways as determined by the user. For example, one lumped rod may be used to represent all rods in an assembly, sometimes with an additional rod representing the hottest fuel rod. However, due to runtime constraints and complexity of modeling, a more common approach is to group several assemblies or larger regions of the core into single lumped rods. These lumping schemes apply not only to fuel rods but to flow channels as well. Second, TRACE has several different models for treating decay heat, ranging from pregenerated decay heat curves based on an ANSI/ANS-5.1 standard (hereinafter abbreviated simply as ANSI) to explicit time-dependent heat inputs from the user. None of these models account for differences in isotopics between different rods, which is an approximation the work in this report seeks to eliminate. This report focuses on the implementation of coupled decay heat capabilities in the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) code suite to address a gap identified in previous LOCA simulations. This constitutes an improvement for both the lumped-fuel and decay heat models in TRACE. VERA has been developed to perform high-fidelity, whole-core multiphysics simulations for LWRs. Previously, during the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of LWRs (CASL) program, the emphasis was on providing accurate steady-state analysis—with a secondary focus on reactivity insertion accident (RIA) analysis—to address operational challenges in the nuclear energy industry. Under the Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, these capabilities are being extended to a broader range of transient analyses with the goal of quantifying the risk of fuel failures such as FFRD. To properly model such conditions with VERA, decay heat calculations have been integrated with the multiphysics to enable rod-by-rod thermal hydraulic (TH) conditions to be driven by the decay heat in long-running accidents such as LOCAs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

van der Waals corrected density functionals for cylindrical surfaces: Ammonia and nitrogen dioxide adsorbed on a single-walled carbon nanotube

In this work, we extend the damped Zaremba-Kohn model (dZK) for long-range dispersion interaction between a molecule and a planar surface to molecules adsorbed on a curved cylindrical surface, and employ this extended model as an additive correction to the semilocal density functionals PBE (Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof) and SCAN (strongly constrained and appropriately normed). The resulting PBE+vdW (van der Waals)-dZK and SCAN+vdW-dZK are applied to two systems, NH3 and NO2 molecules adsorbed on a single-wall carbon nanotube (CNT), for calculations of binding energies and equilibrium distances. For comparison, the results from vdW nonlocal functionals, such as SCAN+rVV10 and PBE+rVV10, are also presented. The binding energies from PBE+rVV10 (Vydrov and Van Voorhis), SCAN+rVV10, PBE+vdW-dZK, and SCAN+vdW-dZK are about 70–115 meV for the system of CNT + NH 3 and 300–500 meV for the system of CNT + NO 2 . The results from PBE+vdW-dZK and SCAN+vdW-dZK are closer to each other than those from PBE+rVV10 and SCAN+rVV10 are. The relatively closer results from PBE+vdW-dZK and SCAN+vdW-dZK indicate the consistency of our developed vdW–dZK model for cylindrical surfaces. All methods, including PBE, SCAN, PBE+rVV10, SCAN+rVV10, PBE+vdW-dZK, and SCAN+vdW-dZK, give approximately the same binding energy differences between two adsorption configurations (types I and II) for the two systems. This implies that the two adsorption sites have approximately the same adsorption stability. The exponent of the vdW interaction power law from our vdW-dZK model for the two systems is about 0 at short distance, largely due to the damping factor, and tends slowly to –4 to –4.5 at distances D about 20–50 Å. At even larger distances, the vdW power-law exponent approaches –5. This feature is very similar to the one calculated with random-phase approximation and renormalization group approaches, supporting the applicability of our methods. Our developed vdW-dZK method provides a highly efficient and reliable method for large systems with cylindrical surfaces, such as vdW interactions with nanotubes.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Assessing the Geomechanical Response of CO 2 Disposal in Flood Basalt Reservoirs

In this work, we complete a multi-scale investigation of the physical processes governing geologic CO 2 sequestration in basalt reservoirs. This work integrates (i) laboratory measurements of relative permeability in a basalt fracture, (ii) theoretical modeling to understand how relative permeability uncertainty affects geomechanical performance attributes of basalt reservoirs, (iii) outcrop-scale simulation to identify the characteristics of vertical CO 2 flow in a basalt fracture network, and (iv) regional-scale assessment of permeability architecture in the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). These individual studies are combined into a site-scale stochastic model of geologic CO 2 sequestration in the Columbia River Plateau, which shows how bulk and relative permeability variability affects geomechanical reservoir integrity and storage capacity of flood basalt reservoirs. This project resulted in a novel laboratory technique that combines X-ray CT and micro-PET scanning to calculate the relative permeability curves for a horizontal fracture in basalt. We also discovered that permeability on the Columbia River Plateau exhibits directionally-dependent spatial correlation, which our analysis suggests is a result of loading-induced subsidence. This analysis further discovered that permeability in the CRBG may increase at depth due to bending moment stresses. In the context of CO 2 sequestration, this result implies that storage capacity and injectivity may actually increase at depths beyond ~1 km. Our outcrop-scale investigation found that buoyant, free-phase CO 2 tends to accumulate at fracture intersections, which inhibits vertical flow over 10+ year timescales and may facilitate both physical and chemical trapping as fluid mobility decreases. At the site-scale, we find that in flood basalt reservoirs the spatial configuration of reservoir permeability exhibits substantial control on CO 2 injectivity. We utilized known borehole geology from the Wallula Basalt Sequestration Pilot Project to develop 50 equally probable permeability configurations and found that a single injection well operating at 95% of the borehole breakout pressure can deliver 0.12 to 2.0 million metric tons of CO 2 per year (MMT CO 2 per year). This maximum injection rate can support a 1,000 MW gas-fired power plant with a single injection well.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High Temperature Steam Electrolysis Process Performance and Cost Estimates

Technology readiness levels (TRLs) of electrolysis systems have dramatically increased in recent years as the interest in clean hydrogen production and decarbonization of transportation, industrial and other sectors increases across the globe. This is especially true of high temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) / solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) systems which show promise of much higher system efficiencies than other more developed electrolysis technologies. This possibility of higher efficiencies of HTSE / SOEC systems has been previously assumed to be theoretically possible but in recent years it has become less theoretical and more realistic as an increasing amount of suppliers complete lab and pilot tests showing very promising results. Research in the areas of manufacturing techniques, material selection, electrode and electrolyte compositions, and balance of plant size and integration continues at a fast pace as an increasing number of suppliers both internationally and domestically become involved. The advantages of HTSE become more pronounced when HTSE is coupled with nuclear power plants (NPPs). This is because thermal energy produced by the nuclear reactor can be used in a series of heat transfer loops and heat exchangers to vaporize HTSE feedwater, which drastically improves the economics of the process. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has been very involved in the research and modeling of HTSE systems for a number of years, in collaboration with other national laboratories, academia, and industry stakeholders both on the hydrogen production as well as the hydrogen demand side. The modeling completed over the years on a large variety of projects has led to a wealth of knowledge at INL including in the area of the technoeconomic assessment (TEA) of HTSE systems. TEAs include process modeling of the HTSE systems to calculate system energy requirements and equipment sizing, followed by estimation of capital and operating costs to enable calculation of the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). The TEA work performed has produced incremental improvements and tuning of the methods, assumptions, models, and results of the analyses as well as providing some opportunities for validating these results. The purpose of this document is to record the current baseline HTSE analyses led by INL to show the current status of assumptions and costs of these systems. Given the rapid development of this technology, the variety of suppliers entering the space, and the increasing attention government and industry are giving to such systems, this document may be updated on a periodic basis with updated analysis and assumptions. This document compiles various analyses results and approaches completed over a period of years into a single document to be used as a baseline going forward. It represents what the INL HTSE analysis group assumes to be the internal best estimate of the current operation, costs, and landscape of the HTSE industry state of the art capability for current SOEC technology in an Nth-of-a-Kind (NOAK) plant, which in this study is defined as existence of the manufacturing capacity to support previous deployment of N = 100 count of 25 MWe modular HTSE blocks (with modular equipment component cost reductions specified as following a 95% learning curve). That said, This is a public document and as such so no proprietary data was used or included in this report. There may be HTSE suppliers that have performance specifications, and cost estimates, and test data that differ from the analysis presented in this document. This document is meant to be a best conservative estimate of the technology and not an absolute reference.

08 HYDROGEN↗

High Temperature Steam Electrolysis Process Performance and Cost Estimates - DOE Hydrogen Program AMR Presentation

Technology readiness levels (TRLs) of electrolysis systems have dramatically increased in recent years as the interest in clean hydrogen production and decarbonization of transportation, industrial and other sectors increases across the globe. This is especially true of high temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) / solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) systems which show promise of much higher system efficiencies than other more developed electrolysis technologies. This possibility of higher efficiencies of HTSE / SOEC systems has been previously assumed to be theoretically possible but in recent years it has become less theoretical and more realistic as an increasing amount of suppliers complete lab and pilot tests showing very promising results. Research in the areas of manufacturing techniques, material selection, electrode and electrolyte compositions, and balance of plant size and integration continues at a fast pace as an increasing number of suppliers both internationally and domestically become involved. The advantages of HTSE become more pronounced when HTSE is coupled with nuclear power plants (NPPs). This is because thermal energy produced by the nuclear reactor can be used in a series of heat transfer loops and heat exchangers to vaporize HTSE feedwater, which drastically improves the economics of the process. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has been very involved in the research and modeling of HTSE systems for a number of years, in collaboration with other national laboratories, academia, and industry stakeholders both on the hydrogen production as well as the hydrogen demand side. The modeling completed over the years on a large variety of projects has led to a wealth of knowledge at INL including in the area of the technoeconomic assessment (TEA) of HTSE systems. TEAs include process modeling of the HTSE systems to calculate system energy requirements and equipment sizing, followed by estimation of capital and operating costs to enable calculation of the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). The TEA work performed has produced incremental improvements and tuning of the methods, assumptions, models, and results of the analyses as well as providing some opportunities for validating these results. The purpose of this document is to record the current baseline HTSE analyses led by INL to show the current status of assumptions and costs of these systems. Given the rapid development of this technology, the variety of suppliers entering the space, and the increasing attention government and industry are giving to such systems, this document may be updated on a periodic basis with updated analysis and assumptions. This document compiles various analyses results and approaches completed over a period of years into a single document to be used as a baseline going forward. It represents what the INL HTSE analysis group assumes to be the internal best estimate of the current operation, costs, and landscape of the HTSE industry state of the art capability for current SOEC technology in an Nth-of-a-Kind (NOAK) plant, which in this study is defined as existence of the manufacturing capacity to support previous deployment of N = 100 count of 25 MWe modular HTSE blocks (with modular equipment component cost reductions specified as following a 95% learning curve). That said, this is a public document and as such so no proprietary data was used or included in this report. There may be HTSE suppliers that have performance specifications, and cost estimates, and test data that differ from the analysis presented in this document. This document is meant to be a best conservative estimate of the technology and not an absolute reference.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches

This report documents the initial findings from the Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC)-sponsored research project Methods for Estimating Joint Probabilities of Coincident and Correlated Flooding Mechanisms for Nuclear Power Plant Flood Hazard Assessments.1 This research project is a part of NRC’s Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program and will aid the development of guidance on the use of PFHA methods to evaluate infrastructure safety for existing and proposed US nuclear power plants (NPPs). More specifically, this project intends to provide technical background for the development of flood hazard curves for multi-mechanism floods (MMFs). MMFs are flood events caused by more than one flooding mechanism (e.g., flood events due to the simultaneous occurrence of precipitation-induced river flooding and storm surge). Project activities include three main tasks: Task 1—Survey of current concepts and methods in assessing MMF hazards; Task 2—Critical assessment of selected methods and approaches for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk; Task 3—Development of example case studies to illustrate best practices for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk The initial findings from Tasks 1 and 2 are documented in this report. Task 1 comprised a survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to understand and assess flood hazards due to MMFs. Task 2 involved a critical review of the selected approaches and methods. To that end, the scope of this report includes documentation of (1) a reconnaissance-level survey of the current state of concepts and practice for MMF hazard assessment; (2) a generalized MMF assessment framework to address the distinctions among various types of flood-forcing phenomena, flood mechanisms (grouped into three mechanism types), and flood severity metrics; (3) a wide-ranging survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to various flooding phenomena and settings; and (4) a critical assessment of MMF hazard assessment methods. Studies were identified involving MMFs related to coastal flooding mechanisms, fluvial (rivers/streams) flooding mechanisms, and associated combinations of coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms. Studies were also identified that address MMFs involving coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms as well as coastal flooding mechanisms along with extreme precipitation (without specific attribution to fluvial or pluvial mechanisms). The studies identified for review in this report included assessments at varying spatial scales (from local to global) with differing geographic regions of focus using both observed and synthetic data. The majority of studies identified and reviewed were site-specific assessments focusing on relatively short return periods. Studies considered a range of flood severity metrics, made differing assumptions regarding the occurrence of extrema, and used multiple statistical techniques; the use of copulas for the development of joint distributions was a particularly popular analysis technique. The literature review highlighted the differences among existing studies relative to terminology used, means of presenting results, framework and techniques employed, and level of sophistication regarding the number and types of variables considered. Despite the significant diversity in existing studies, the review identified several promising techniques that will be considered in future work under this project, including the development of joint distributions for MMFs using copula and Bayesian-motivated approaches.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Detection and Perception of Sound by Eagles and Surrogate Raptors

One overarching objective of this program of study was the accumulation of objective, scientifically valid information relating to auditory performance of bald and golden eagles that may be used to guide the development of acoustic alerting/deterrence technologies intended to discourage encroachment into wind energy air spaces. To that end, analyses aimed at the characterization of sensitivity to sound in bald and golden eagles, along with findings in the supra-threshold, dynamic frequency spaces related to response latencies and amplitudes, leads us to conclude that bald, and golden eagles navigate the same basic working auditory space, as in other known and thus far characterized members of the diurnal raptor family. Specifically, bald and golden eagles, along with other raptor species within the group, operate in an auditory space characterized by a frequency band at least four octaves wide and centered on 2 kHz, with an upper frequency limit between 6 and 10 kHz at 80 dB SPL and a lower frequency limit that almost certainly extends below 0.2 kHz. Consequently, we recommend that signal designers use these data as a guideline in efforts to design effective and efficient acoustic alerting/deterrent systems. It is important to note that signal energy broadcast outside of this frequency band at moderate levels will not contribute to the efficacy of a deterrent but will add an unnecessary fraction to the overall acoustic pollution budget. The importance of this consideration is heightened by contemporaneous concerns related to the transmission of noise broadcast by wind energy farms. In addition, based on analyses of data acquired from red-tailed hawks using the same experimental paradigm and data acquisition system, we conclude that auditory function in the red-tailed hawk is sufficiently like that observed in bald and golden eagles to permit its use as a surrogate species. Response waveforms, threshold-frequency curves, and input-output characteristics match those of eagles closely. It should be noted however, that differences in sensitivity and slightly extended high-frequency limits of hearing should be taken into account when extrapolating findings from one species to the others. Although the inclusion of behavioral tests of red-tailed hawks to acoustic stimuli was beyond the scope of this investigation, future efforts to assess response parameters like signal-type preference and habituation rate will further elucidate their suitability to serve as eagle surrogates in behavioral studies; nonetheless, the species in question are well matched with respect to basic auditory performance. A second essential objective of this program of study was the acoustic characterization of a subset of calls comprising the vocal repertoires of bald and golden eagles that may be used to supplement auditory performance findings in the effort to guide the development of acoustic alerting signals. With regard to that objective, the vocal repertoires of both bald and golden eagle species are rich and varied. While similar in spectrographic structure, distinctive differences are also clear. Generally, golden eagles produce some calls with shorter durations, and similar “sounding” calls exhibit distinctively different spectrographic patterns than those of bald eagles. Both species produce calls that contain a wide variety of nonlinear elements that operate to enhance the rich and varied nature of commonly observed vocal products. Comparison of the average power spectra of commonly observed bald and golden eagle calls with threshold-frequency curves leads to the conclusion that call energies fall within the frequency bounds of hearing. Further, the acoustic energy of calls considered in this report tend to fall into overlapping, but different frequency ranges of the acoustic sensitivity curve. This condition may encourage signal designers to vary the frequency content of acoustic deterrence signals in the field. Finally, preliminary observations relating to the tendencies and proclivities of bald eagles to attend to the acoustic landscape lead to the conclusion that eagles monitor their immediate sound environment assiduously. Individuals respond to a variety of natural and synthetic sound signals reliably and, perhaps most relevant in the context of the engineering of acoustic alerting/deterrence technologies, habituation to most sounds considered in this effort was minimal. These preliminary results, while calling for extended behavioral testing, are promising and set the stage for the exportation of behavioral studies into real world scenarios.

17 WIND ENERGY↗