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DOE OSTI2023

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Seeing through noise in power laws

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2002

Statistical Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Power Law Spectra Information

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index, a is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at the knee energy, E(sub k), to a steeper spectral index alpha(sub 2) greater than alpha(sub 1) above E(sub k). The Maximum likelihood (ML) procedure was developed for estimating the single parameter alpha(sub 1) of a simple power law energy spectrum and generalized to estimate the three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses and real cosmic-ray data. The statistical properties of the ML estimator were investigated and shown to have the three desirable properties: (P1) consistency (asymptotically unbiased). (P2) efficiency asymptotically attains the Cramer-Rao minimum variance bound), and (P3) asymptotically normally distributed, under a wide range of potential detector response functions. Attainment of these properties necessarily implies that the ML estimation procedure provides the best unbiased estimator possible. While simulation studies can easily determine if a given estimation procedure provides an unbiased estimate of the spectra information, and whether or not the estimator is approximately normally distributed, attainment of the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) can only he ascertained by calculating the CRB for an assumed energy spectrum-detector response function combination, which can be quite formidable in practice. However. the effort in calculating the CRB is very worthwhile because it provides the necessary means to compare the efficiency of competing estimation techniques and, furthermore, provides a stopping rule in the search for the best unbiased estimator. Consequently, the CRB for both the simple and broken power law energy spectra are derived herein and the conditions under which they are attained in practice are investigated. The ML technique is then extended to estimate spectra information from an arbitrary number of astrophysics data sets produced by vastly different science instruments. This theory and its successful implementation will facilitate the interpretation of spectral information from multiple astrophysics missions and thereby permit the derivation of superior spectral parameter estimates based on the combination of data sets.

Howell, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Statistical Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Power Law Spectra Information

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index, sigma(sub 2), is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at the knee energy, E(sub k), to a steeper spectral index sigma(sub 2) greater than sigma(sub 1) above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood (ML) procedure was developed for estimating the single parameter sigma(sub 1) of a simple power law energy spectrum and generalized to estimate the three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses and real cosmic-ray data. The statistical properties of the ML estimator were investigated and shown to have the three desirable properties: (Pl) consistency (asymptotically unbiased), (P2) efficiency (asymptotically attains the Cramer-Rao minimum variance bound), and (P3) asymptotically normally distributed, under a wide range of potential detector response functions. Attainment of these properties necessarily implies that the ML estimation procedure provides the best unbiased estimator possible. While simulation studies can easily determine if a given estimation procedure provides an unbiased estimate of the spectra information, and whether or not the estimator is approximately normally distributed, attainment of the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) can only be ascertained by calculating the CRB for an assumed energy spectrum- detector response function combination, which can be quite formidable in practice. However, the effort in calculating the CRB is very worthwhile because it provides the necessary means to compare the efficiency of competing estimation techniques and, furthermore, provides a stopping rule in the search for the best unbiased estimator. Consequently, the CRB for both the simple and broken power law energy spectra are derived herein and the conditions under which they are stained in practice are investigated.

Howell, L. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Recommended Procedure for Estimating the Cosmic Ray Spectral Parameter of a Simple Power Law

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index a(f(sub i)) is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic ray (GQ proton flux at energies below 1013 eV. Two procedures for estimating a(f(sub i)), referred as (1) the method of moments, and (2) maximum likelihood, are developed and their statistical performance compared. I concluded that the maximum likelihood procedure attains the most desirable statistical properties and is hence the recommended statistic estimation procedure for estimating a1. The maximum likelihood procedure is then generalized for application to a set of real cosmic ray data and thereby makes this approach applicable to existing cosmic ray data sets. Several other important results, such as the relationship between collecting power and detector energy resolution, as well as inclusion of a non-Gaussian detector response function, are presented. These results have many practical benefits in the design phase of a cosmic ray detector because they permit instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of one of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, Leonard W.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The time-domain behavior of power-law noises

The power spectra of many geophysical phenomena are well approximated by a power-law dependence on frequency or wavenumber. A simple expression for the root-mean-square variability of a process with such a spectrum over an interval of time or space is derived. The resulting expression yields the powerlaw time dependence characteristic of fractal processes, but can be generalized to give the temporal variability for more general spectral behaviors. The method is applied to spectra of crustal strain (to show what size of strain events can be detected over periods of months to seconds) and of sea level (to show the difficulty of extracting long-term rates from short records).

Agnew, Duncan C.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Double Power-law Formation by Sequential Particle Acceleration

Spectral double power laws are common in solar high-energy phenomena such as flares and interplanetary energetic-electron events. However, the physical mechanism that produces the changes in power-law index within a single spectrum is unclear. We developed a fully analytical method of forming single power-law spectra from sequential acceleration of particles orbiting inside and hopping between simulated large-scale magnetic islands formed by flare reconnection. Here, we extend the analytical method to the formation of double power-law spectra by assuming sequential acceleration in two successive regions with different acceleration and particle-transport rates. The resulting spectral distribution is continuous and smooth, with a flattening at low energies, two power-law regions at mid-energies, and a steep rollover at high energies. The model provides analytical expressions for the spectral indices, all energy breaks, and normalization constants as functions of just three physical parameters of each acceleration region: (1) the energy gain in each accelerator, (2) the percentage of particles transferred between accelerators, and (3) the number of accelerators visited. One of the most salient predictions of our work is that the spectral index at high (low) energies is determined by the parameters of the first "seed" (second) acceleration region. By constructing the spectral distribution through an iterative analytical process, the evolution toward a double power law is easily characterized and explained. Our analytical model provides tools to interpret space- and ground-based observations from RHESSI, FOXSI, NuSTAR, Solar Orbiter/STIX, EOVSA, and future high-energy missions.

Solar flares↗

NASA NTRS1993

Power-law confusion: You say incremental, I say differential

Power-law distributions are commonly used to describe the frequency of occurrences of crater diameters, stellar masses, ring particle sizes, planetesimal sizes, and meteoroid masses to name a few. The distributions are simple, and this simplicity has led to a number of misstatements in the literature about the kind of power-law that is being used: differential, cumulative, or incremental. Although differential and cumulative power-laws are mathematically trivial, it is a hybrid incremental distribution that is often used and the relationship between the incremental distribution and the differential or cumulative distributions is not trivial. In many cases the slope of an incremental power-law will be nearly identical to the slope of the cumulative power-law of the same distribution, not the differential slope. The discussion that follows argues for a consistent usage of these terms and against the oft-made implicit claim that incremental and differential distributions are indistinguishable.

Colwell, Joshua E.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Kink solutions with power law tails

We present a comprehensive review about the various facets of kink solutions with a power law tail, which have received considerable attention during the last few years. This area of research is in its early stages; although several aspects have become clear by now, there are a number of issues which have only been partially understood or not understood at all. We first discuss the aspects which are reasonably well known and then address in some detail the issues which are only partially or not understood at all. We present a wide class of higher (than sixth) order field theory models admitting implicit kink as well as mirror kink solutions where the two tails facing each other have a power law or a power-tower type fall off, whereas the other two ends not facing each other could have either an exponential or a power law tail. The models admitting implicit kink solutions where the two ends facing each other have an exponential tail while the other two ends have a power law tail are also discussed. Moreover, we present several field theory models which admit explicit kink solutions with a power law fall off; we note that in all these polynomial models while the potential V ( ϕ ) is continuous, its derivative is discontinuous. We also discuss one of the most important and only partially understood issues of the kink–kink and the kink–antikink forces in case the tails facing each other have a power law fall off. Finally, we briefly discuss the kink–antikink collisions at finite velocity and present some open questions.

power-tower tail↗

NASA NTRS2022

Universal Scaling Laws for Solar and Stellar Atmospheric Heating: Catalog of Power-law Index between Solar Activity Proxies and Various Spectral Irradiances

The formation of extremely hot outer atmospheres is one of the most prominent manifestations of magnetic activity common to late-type dwarf stars, including the Sun. It is widely believed that these atmospheric layers, the corona, transition region, and chromosphere, are heated by the dissipation of energy transported upwards from the stellar surface by the magnetic field. This is signified by the spectral line fluxes at various wavelengths, scaled with power-law relationships against the surface magnetic flux over a wide range of formation temperatures, which are universal to the Sun and Sunlike stars of different ages and activity levels. This study describes a catalog of power-law indices between solar activity proxies and various spectral line fluxes. Compared to previous studies, we expanded the number of proxies, which now includes the total magnetic flux, total sunspot number, total sunspot area, and the F10.7 cm radio flux, and further enhanced the number of spectral lines by a factor of 2. This provides the data to study in detail the flux–flux scaling laws from the regions specified by the temperatures of the corona (log(T/K) = 6–7) to those of the chromosphere (log(T/K) ∼ 4), as well as the reconstruction of various spectral line fluxes of the Sun in the past, F-, G-, and K-type dwarfs, and the modeled stars.

Stellar coronae↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spectral Single and Double Power-law Formation by Sequential Particle Acceleration in Flare Magnetic Islands

Spectral single and double power laws are common in high-energy phenomena, such as solar flares and solar energetic particles, including ground level enhancement events. It is not clear what determines the energy breaks and spectral indexes of these power laws. Here, we will describe a first-principles model of pitch-angle and energy distribution function evolution, which produces power laws and provides physical interpretation for such spectral features (Guidoni et al. 2022, ApJ). In this model, a prescribed fraction of particles sequentially “hops” between shrinking magnetic islands (accelerators) formed by flare reconnection. Each accelerator increases particles’ energies by a modest amount, but particles must visit only a few accelerators to increase their energies by orders of magnitude. Data from global magnetohydrodynamic simulations of an eruptive flare/coronal mass ejection provide ambient conditions for the evolving particle distributions. We will also describe the fully analytic method for forming and interpreting power laws, which requires only a few constrained physical parameters of the acceleration region and is independent of the acceleration model, as well as preliminary results extending the analytical model to the formation of double power laws.

S E Guidoni↗

NASA NTRS1994

Is a data set distributed as a power law? A test, with application to gamma-ray burst brightnesses

We present a method to determine whether an observed sample of data is drawn from a parent distribution that is pure power law. The method starts from a class of statistics which have zero expectation value under the null hypothesis, H(sub 0), that the distribution is a pure power law: F(x) varies as x(exp -alpha). We study one simple member of the class, named the `bending statistic' B, in detail. It is most effective for detection a type of deviation from a power law where the power-law slope varies slowly and monotonically as a function of x. Our estimator of B has a distribution under H(sub 0) that depends only on the size of the sample, not on the parameters of the parent population, and is approximated well by a normal distribution even for modest sample sizes. The bending statistic can therefore be used to test a set of numbers is drawn from any power-law parent population. Since many measurable quantities in astrophysics have distriibutions that are approximately power laws, and since deviations from the ideal power law often provide interesting information about the object of study (e.g., a `bend' or `break' in a luminosity function, a line in an X- or gamma-ray spectrum), we believe that a test of this type will be useful in many different contexts. In the present paper, we apply our test to various subsamples of gamma-ray burst brightness from the first-year Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) catalog and show that we can only marginally detect the expected steepening of the log (N (greater than C(sub max))) - log (C(sub max)) distribution.

Wijers, Ralph A. M. J.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Power law behavior of RR-interval variability in healthy middle-aged persons, patients with recent acute myocardial infarction, and patients with heart transplants

BACKGROUND. The purposes of the present study were (1) to establish normal values for the regression of log(power) on log(frequency) for, RR-interval fluctuations in healthy middle-aged persons, (2) to determine the effects of myocardial infarction on the regression of log(power) on log(frequency), (3) to determine the effect of cardiac denervation on the regression of log(power) on log(frequency), and (4) to assess the ability of power law regression parameters to predict death after myocardial infarction. METHODS AND RESULTS. We studied three groups: (1) 715 patients with recent myocardial infarction; (2) 274 healthy persons age and sex matched to the infarct sample; and (3) 19 patients with heart transplants. Twenty-four-hour RR-interval power spectra were computed using fast Fourier transforms and log(power) was regressed on log(frequency) between 10(-4) and 10(-2) Hz. There was a power law relation between log(power) and log(frequency). That is, the function described a descending straight line that had a slope of approximately -1 in healthy subjects. For the myocardial infarction group, the regression line for log(power) on log(frequency) was shifted downward and had a steeper negative slope (-1.15). The transplant (denervated) group showed a larger downward shift in the regression line and a much steeper negative slope (-2.08). The correlation between traditional power spectral bands and slope was weak, and that with log(power) at 10(-4) Hz was only moderate. Slope and log(power) at 10(-4) Hz were used to predict mortality and were compared with the predictive value of traditional power spectral bands. Slope and log(power) at 10(-4) Hz were excellent predictors of all-cause mortality or arrhythmic death. To optimize the prediction of death, we calculated a log(power) intercept that was uncorrelated with the slope of the power law regression line. We found that the combination of slope and zero-correlation log(power) was an outstanding predictor, with a relative risk of > 10, and was better than any combination of the traditional power spectral bands. The combination of slope and log(power) at 10(-4) Hz also was an excellent predictor of death after myocardial infarction. CONCLUSIONS. Myocardial infarction or denervation of the heart causes a steeper slope and decreased height of the power law regression relation between log(power) and log(frequency) of RR-interval fluctuations. Individually and, especially, combined, the power law regression parameters are excellent predictors of death of any cause or arrhythmic death and predict these outcomes better than the traditional power spectral bands.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2018

Power-Law Statistics of Driven Reconnection in the Magnetically Closed Corona

Numerous observations have revealed that power-law distributions are ubiquitous in energetic solar processes. Hard X-rays, soft X-rays, extreme ultraviolet radiation, and radio waves all display power-law frequency distributions. Since magnetic reconnection is the driving mechanism for many energetic solar phenomena, it is likely that reconnection events themselves display such power-law distributions. In this work, we perform numerical simulations of the solar corona driven by simple convective motions at the photospheric level. Using temperature changes, current distributions, and Poynting fluxes as proxies for heating, we demonstrate that energetic events occurring in our simulation display power-law frequency distributions, with slopes in good agreement with observations. We suggest that the braiding-associated reconnection in the corona can be understood in terms of a self-organized criticality model driven by convective rotational motions similar to those observed at the photosphere.

Knizhnik, K. J.↗

NASA NTRS1972

The power law for the perception of rotation by airline pilots.

The purpose of this study was to determine the power laws for the perception of rotation about the three major body axes. Eighteen airline pilots made magnitude estimates of 5-sec pulses of nine angular accelerations having a range of acceleration x time of 10-150 deg/sec. The results showed that (1) the power law with an exponent of 1.4 describes the subjective motion of these pilots for all three major body axes, (2) the power law also describes the perception of motion for individual pilots with a substantial range of exponents, (3) there were significant correlations among the exponents for the three body axes, and (4) the data suggest that the power law over the wide range used may be more complex than implied by a formula with a single exponent.

Clark, B.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Self-similar Reynolds-averaged mechanical–scalar turbulence models for Rayleigh–Taylor mixing induced by power-law accelerations in the small Atwood number limit

Analytical self-similar solutions to two-, three-, and four-equation Reynolds-averaged mechanical–scalar turbulence models describing turbulent Rayleigh–Taylor mixing driven by a temporal power-law acceleration are derived in the small Atwood number (Boussinesq) limit. The solutions generalize those previously derived for constant acceleration Rayleigh–Taylor mixing for models based on the turbulent kinetic energy K and its dissipation rate ε, together with the scalar variance S and its dissipation rate χ [O. Schilling, “Self-similar Reynolds-averaged mechanical–scalar turbulence models for Rayleigh–Taylor, Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability-induced mixing in the small Atwood number limit,” Phys. Fluids 33, 085129 (2021)]. The turbulent fields are expressed in terms of the model coefficients and power-law exponent, with their temporal power-law scalings obtained by requiring that the self-similar equations are explicitly time-independent. Mixing layer growth parameters and other physical observables are obtained explicitly as functions of the model coefficients and parameterized by the exponent of the power-law acceleration. Values for physical observables in the constant acceleration case are used to calibrate the two-, three-, and four-equation models, such that the self-similar solutions are consistent with experimental and numerical simulation data corresponding to a canonical (i.e., constant acceleration) Rayleigh–Taylor turbulent flow. The calibrated four-equation model is then used to numerically reconstruct the mean and turbulent fields, and turbulent equation budgets across the mixing layer for several values of the power-law exponent. Finally, the reference solutions derived here can be used to understand the model predictions for strongly accelerated or decelerated Rayleigh–Taylor mixing in the large Reynolds number limit.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1984

On the origin of power-law X-ray spectra of active galactic nuclei

In the present analytical model for a power law X-ray continuum production in active galactic nuclei, the dissipation of turbulent energy flux above the accretion disk forms an optically thin transition layer with an inverted temperature gradient. The emitted thermal radiation has a power law spectrum in the 0.1-100 keV range, with a photon energy spectral index gamma of about 0.4-1.0. Thermal X-ray contribution from the layer is 5-10 percent of the total disk luminosity. The gamma value of 0.75 is suggested as a 'natural' power law index for Seyfert galaxies and QSOs.

Schlosman, I.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Project Dinos I: A joint lensing–dynamics constraint on the deviation from the power law in the mass profile of massive ellipticals

The mass distribution in massive elliptical galaxies encodes their evolutionary history, thus providing an avenue to constrain the baryonic astrophysics in their evolution. The power-law assumption for the radial mass profile in ellipticals has been sufficient to describe several observables to the noise level, including strong lensing and stellar dynamics. In this paper, we quantitatively constrained any deviation, or the lack thereof, from the power-law mass profile in massive ellipticals through joint lensing–dynamics analysis of a large statistical sample with 77 galaxy–galaxy lens systems. We performed an improved and uniform lens modelling of these systems from archival Hubble Space Telescope imaging using the automated lens modelling pipeline dolphin. We combined the lens model posteriors with the stellar dynamics to constrain the deviation from the power law after accounting for the line-of-sight lensing effects, a first for analyses on galaxy–galaxy lenses. We find that the Sloan Lens ACS Survey lens galaxies with a mean redshift of 0.2 are consistent with the power-law profile within 1.1σ (2.8σ) and the Strong Lensing Legacy Survey lens galaxies with a mean redshift of 0.6 are consistent within 0.8σ (2.1σ), for a spatially constant (Osipkov–Merritt) stellar anisotropy profile. We adopted the spatially constant anisotropy profile as our baseline choice based on previous dynamical observables of local ellipticals. However, spatially resolved stellar kinematics of lens galaxies are necessary to differentiate between the two anisotropy models. Future studies will use our lens models to constrain the mass distribution individually in the dark matter and baryonic components.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗