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At least 19 records

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DOE OSTI2023

Public values failure associated with Hurricane Ian power outages

Power outages from extreme weather events can diminish community resilience, making it difficult for the areas impacted to bounce back after such events. For socially vulnerable populations, the frequency and duration of power outages can be even more severe. Governments have an obligation to protect public values, or those values that are most fundamental to society, which includes equitable resilience. Using Jørgensen and Bozeman's inventory of public values, this manuscript explores how power outages from extreme weather events create public values failures. More specifically, the manuscript evaluates intraorganizational aspects of public administration during power outages in Florida during Hurricane Ian in 2022. Framing power outages as a public values failure may motivate greater time and effort toward improving equitable access to more resilient power systems.

Entress, Rebecca M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Preventive Power Outage Estimation Based on a Novel Scenario Clustering Strategy

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events is challenging power grid operation. For extreme weather events, the system operator is responsible for estimating the power outages and scheduling the restoration resources. This paper proposes an outage evaluation framework to identify the possible unserved load profiles, vulnerable areas, and mobile energy adequacy. The outputs of an outage prediction model tool are used to generate numerous faulted line scenarios. Next, each scenario's nodal unserved load profile is obtained by solving a three-phase restoration model that considers repair crews and mobile energy resources (MERs). Then, a novel scenario clustering strategy is developed to cluster the unserved load profiles into multiple representative profiles which the system operator can focus on. Finally, case studies on a distribution system evaluate the damage caused by an extreme weather event and verify the effectiveness of the proposed scenario clustering strategy.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,POWER TRANSMISSION AND D↗

DOE OSTI2026

EAGLE-I Power Outage Data 2025

The provided EAGLE-I historic dataset includes power outage information at the county level for 2025 at 15-minute intervals collected by the EAGLE-I program at ORNL. The data has been collected from utility's public outage maps using an ETL process. The dataset details FIPS code, county name, state name, total number of customers without power, and a date/timestamp. For detailed metadata, refer to the linked metadata DOI.

EAGLE-I↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Building Resilience: Maintaining Energy Efficiency and Thermal Comfort During Power Outages in Cold Climates

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and cold snaps, present significant challenges to building energy performance and occupant comfort. Highly correlated with climate events are widespread long duration power interruptions that may affect thousands of buildings and millions of customers. This study evaluates the impact of building energy performance and occupant thermal comfort in medium-sized office buildings in a cold climate region. Using energy models representing pre-1980 and 2019 vintages, simulations were conducted to assess energy performance under typical weather conditions and occupant thermal comfort during power interrupted extreme cold snap and heatwave climate events under both current 2020s and future 2050s weather conditions. The results show a projected 33% increase in cooling energy demand and a 19% reduction in heating energy by 2050. Findings reveal that older buildings are more susceptible to cold discomfort during cold snaps, while modern airtight buildings are more vulnerable to overheating during heatwaves. Various passive energy efficiency measures, such as improved infiltration control, thermal windows, solar-controlled windows, and cool envelopes, were evaluated for their ability to mitigate thermal discomforts. Solar controlled windows and weatherstripping contribute to reducing cold thermal discomfort by 21% during a power-interrupted cold snap. Solar-controlled windows were found to reduce hot thermal discomfort by 34% during a future power-interrupted heatwave. The study highlights the importance of targeted retrofitting strategies to enhance thermal resilience, especially during power outages, to ensure occupant safety and comfort during extreme climate events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Comprehensive Model for Analyzing the Effects of Power Outages on Customers

Power outages can cause significant inconveniences to critical services and substantial economic losses. Therefore, it is crucial to systematically analyze the impact on customers during power outages caused by various factors, such as severe thunderstorms, floods, vegetation, or mechanical problems, and to plan for reliable operation and control under such events. Power outages in different locations may exhibit varying characteristics regarding customer impact. In this paper, we present a mathematical model that captures the essential characteristics of customer impact during power outages. The parameters of our model include impact duration, recovery duration, maximum impact level, increase curve parameter, and decrease curve parameter. We demonstrate how historical power outage data can be fitted to our model, enabling a systematic comparison of outages caused by different factors in various locations.

Lee, Sangkeun (Matt) [ORNL] (ORCID:000000021317511↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

Power outages cause significant economic and societal impacts. An increasing likelihood of extreme weather coupled with aging grid infrastructure is leading to a higher prevalence of extended power outages, which can leave customers without power for multiple days or even weeks. Planners at the facility, local, state, and federal levels are interested in resilience solutions to reduce the impacts of extended power outages. Resilience solutions—such as installing backup systems, integrating microgrid solutions, weatherizing buildings, and hardening distribution and transmission components—can reduce the consequences of extended power outages, but these solutions come with increased capital costs. Conducting cost-benefit analyses is important for determining which steps to take to mitigate the impact of power outages without investing in ineffective and cost-prohibitive resilience solutions. The expected benefits of resilience investments depend on the frequency of power outages of various durations, particularly extended outages lasting several hours, days, or weeks. A significant barrier to resilience planning is the lack of publicly available data on the frequency and duration of extended power outages. The absence of outage duration information severely limits the ability to conduct quantitative cost-benefit analyses of resilience investments. This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies. We developed a methodology to estimate customer outage durations for extended outage events using publicly available data on customer outages. Shorter-duration power outages are relatively common, with customers experiencing on average more than one power outage each year lasting fewer than 12 hours. An outage event lasting between 1 day and 1 week is expected to occur between once every 16 years and once every 42 years, depending on the region, with an average recurrence rate of once every 32 years across the contiguous United States.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-Based Weather-Related Power Outage Prediction with Socio-Economic and Power Infrastructure Data

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and unconditional MLP, were developed to forecast power outage probabilities, leveraging a rich array of input features gathered from publicly available sources including weather data, weather station locations, power infrastructure maps, socio-economic and demographic statistics, and power outage records. Given a one-hour-ahead weather forecast, the models predict the power outage probability for each census tract, taking into account both the weather prediction and the location's characteristics. The deep learning models employed different loss functions to optimize prediction performance. Our experimental results underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in enhancing the accuracy of power outage predictions at the census tract level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Projected increases in tropical cyclone-induced U.S. electric power outage risk

Abstract While power outages caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) already pose a great threat to coastal communities, how—and why—these risks will change in a warming climate is poorly understood. To address this need, we develop a robust machine learning model to capture TC-induced power outage risk. When applied to 900 000 synthetic TCs downscaled from simulated historical and future climate conditions under a strong warming scenario, we find outage risk in the United States and Puerto Rico is expected to increase broadly by the end of the century, with some states seeing increases of 60% and higher. Further, we discover that rising rainfall rates will play an increasingly important role in TC-induced power outage risk as the climate changes, explaining more than 50% of the projected change in risk in some regions. These insights are important for guiding decision-makers in their future outage risk investment and mitigation plans.

Grid Resilience↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the Impact of Power Outages on Occupancy Patterns During the 2021 Texas Power Crisis

Large-scale power outages, such as those caused by extreme weather events, have a big impact on human behavior. A short power outage is merely a nuisance for most, and may not change people's locations. An outage that lasts for a few hours can result in spoiled food and medical supplies, and people will have to restock spoiled items. Long outages result in temperatures outside tolerable levels in homes, and may prompt people to acquire supplies, such as generators and gas, or change location. The long outages during Winter Storm Uri in Texas resulted in millions of dollars in property damage due to freezing pipes. This level of damage is expected to result in a sharp increase in supply runs and contractor activity. In this paper, we present a tool to explore differences in visiting patterns before, during, and after power outages. It allows to compare different points of interest like medical facilities, grocery stores, hardware stores, and other types of businesses.

big data↗

DOE OSTI2024

Correlating Power Outage Spread with Infrastructure Interdependencies During Hurricanes

Power outages caused by extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, can significantly disrupt essential services and delay recovery efforts, underscoring the importance of enhancing our infrastructure's resilience. This study investigates the spread of power outages during hurricanes by analyzing the correlation between the network of critical infrastructure and outage propagation. We leveraged datasets from Hurricanemapping.com, the North American Energy Resilience Model Interdependency Analysis (NAERM-IA), and historical power outage data from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)'s EAGLE-I system. Our analysis reveals a consistent positive correlation between the extent of critical infrastructure components accessible within a certain number of steps (k-hop distance) from initial impact areas and the occurrence of power outages in broader regions. This insight suggests that understanding the interconnectedness among critical infrastructure elements is key to identifying areas indirectly affected by extreme weather events.

Bose, Avishek↗

DOE OSTI2021

Informing the planning of rotating power outages in heat waves through data analytics of connected smart thermostats for residential buildings

Abstract With climate change, heat waves have become more frequent and intense. Rotating power outages happen when the power supply is unable to meet the cooling demand increase resulting from extreme high temperatures. Power outages during heat waves expose residents to high risks of overheating. In this study, we propose a novel data-driven inverse modelling approach to inform decision makers and grid operators on planning rotating power outages. We first infer the building thermal characteristics using the connected smart thermostat data, and used the estimated thermal dynamics to simulate the thermal resilience during a heat wave event. Our proposed method was tested for the California power outage in August 2020 by using the open source Ecobee Donate Your Data dataset. We found in California the power outage should not last more than two hours during heat waves to avoid overheating risks. Informing the residents in advance so they can prepare for it through pre-cooling is a simple but effective strategy to expand the acceptable power outage duration. In addition to assisting power outage planning, the proposed method can be used for other applications, such as to evaluate a building energy efficiency policy, to examine fuel poverty, and to estimate the load shifting potential of building stocks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2017

Synergistic Use of Nighttime Satellite Data, Electric Utility Infrastructure, and Ambient Population to Improve Power Outage Detections in Urban Areas

Natural and anthropogenic hazards are frequently responsible for disaster events, leading to damaged physical infrastructure, which can result in loss of electrical power for affected locations. Remotely-sensed, nighttime satellite imagery from the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band (DNB) can monitor power outages in disaster-affected areas through the identification of missing city lights. When combined with locally-relevant geospatial information, these observations can be used to estimate power outages, defined as geographic locations requiring manual intervention to restore power. In this study, we produced a power outage product based on Suomi-NPP VIIRS DNB observations to estimate power outages following Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This product, combined with known power outage data and ambient population estimates, was then used to predict power outages in a layered, feedforward neural network model. We believe this is the first attempt to synergistically combine such data sources to quantitatively estimate power outages. The VIIRS DNB power outage product was able to identify initial loss of light following Hurricane Sandy, as well as the gradual restoration of electrical power. The neural network model predicted power outages with reasonable spatial accuracy, achieving Pearson coefficients (r) between 0.48 and 0.58 across all folds. Our results show promise for producing a continental United States (CONUS)- or global-scale power outage monitoring network using satellite imagery and locally-relevant geospatial data.

da/night band↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the economic costs of power outages owing to extreme events: A systematic review

Quantifying the economic cost of long-duration power outages is crucial to justifying investments in resiliency and reliability improvements. However, extensive study on the subject complicates the identification of power outage costs and determining the most suitable approach to quantify them for an individual, specific facility, particularly in the context of extreme events. Here, this research provides a systematic review of economic studies estimating the impact of environmental disasters at the microeconomic and macroeconomic levels. Of 326 articles, evaluating the costs of power outages in extreme events, this work identified 22 studies that attempted to quantify the economic costs. These findings indicate that quantifying power outage costs lacks standardization, posing challenges for comparing different studies. Most analyses aiming to quantify these costs for utilities, sectors, and the overall economy rely on outdated survey data, which offer generalized rather than specific cost estimations. The costs of power outages exhibit a significant dependence on factors such as the sector involved, the type of customer affected, and the outage duration. To quantify industry costs, the research in this study suggests that using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's online, open-access Customer Damage Function Calculator is the best option for individual-level assessments of industries, hospitals, offices, education centers, and similar facilities. However, the Interruption Cost Estimate Calculator can estimate outage costs across industrial, commercial, and residential sectors for macroeconomic outcomes. Finally, this article discusses the relative strengths of these methods and tools and the potential directions for future research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Historical Power Outages of the United States and the Social Vulnerability Index

Several works have been documented in the literature to study the societal effect of power outages and to analyze their correlation with the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Because the SVI is calculated based on the summed rank of multiple vulnerability factors for environmental hazards, it can include factors irrelevant to power outages caused by extreme events. This work performs a detailed correlation analysis for social vulnerability and power outages by considering different SVI themes (e.g., socioeconomic status, household composition, racial and ethnic minority status, and housing and transportation) and power outages with and without a threshold for extreme weather events. Although there is some relation between specific themes and aspects of power outages and the SVI in the results, there is no strong distinction between power outage durations and low vs. high SVI values. These results point to the need for further research that grounds the specific factors and methods used to develop SVI and related indices to energy services and power systems disruptions.

Bhusal, Narayan↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the Use of Satellite Nightlights for Power Outages Prediction

Hurricanes are a dominant disaster in the Caribbean, always causing serious power outages throughout the islands. Hurricane Maria was a prime example, causing unimaginable destruction of the power infrastructure of Puerto Rico (PR). Consequently, one month after the hurricane landfall, approximately 80% of the population was still without power. After an event of such massive destruction, the electric power restoration process progresses very slowly. This timeline can be improved using power outage (PO) forecast models that help identify the vulnerable places before the hurricane landfall. Generally, these models are trained with historical power outages records, associated data on weather conditions, and additional information about the natural and built environments. However, PO records are often difficult to acquire, and, in many instances, the power utility companies may not record them. This study utilizes a satellite-based Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) night light data product as a surrogate for the power delivery to predict hurricane-induced PO in areas having limited to nonexistent historical data records. The processed satellite data is then used along with geographic variables, and simulated weather data to formulate machine learning-based algorithms to predict PO for future hurricane events. These models are applied and validated in the context of the PR catastrophic storm, Hurricane Maria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scalable and Secure Power Outage Data Reporting: A Hexagonal Geospatial Approach

Power outages disrupt critical infrastructure and cause billions of dollars in economic losses annually in the United States. Accurate and granular outage reporting is vital for effective restoration and mitigation. This paper examines the integration of the Hexagonal Hierarchical Geospatial Indexing System (H3) to enhance power outage reporting, leveraging its uniform grid structure, scalable resolutions, and support for privacy-preserving analysis. Using high-resolution LandScan Global population data and K-anonymization techniques, this work achieves a balance between data granularity and privacy. Results show that lower privacy thresholds (e.g., K-anonymity = 2) enable higher resolution, while stricter thresholds (e.g., >15 people per hex) reduce granularity, potentially affecting localized responses. State-and county-level resolution case studies demonstrate H3’s adaptability and the trade-offs between precision and privacy. The proposed H3-based framework offers a scalable and efficient solution for geospatial data integration within the energy sector, such as outage data, aiding utilities and regulators in improving resilience and response efforts, particularly in disaster-prone regions.

Ahmad, Nasir [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000150677368)↗

DOE OSTI2020

CCE Case Study: Baltavia Substation Power Outage

In this case study, we will examine a fictional event broadly inspired by the real power outages in Ukraine that took place in December 2015 and December 2016 - both the result of cyber-enabled sabotage. The actual events of 2015 and 2016 were well-documented - the adversaries in these attacks gained access to a few power companies’ corporate networks, pivoted to industrial control system (ICS) networks, and created widespread physical effects in the form of power outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

CCE Case Study: Baltavia Substation Power Outage

In this case study, we will examine a fictional event broadly inspired by the real power outages in Ukraine that took place in December 2015 and December 2016—both the result of cyber-enabled sabotage. The actual events of 2015 and 2016 were well-documented—the adversaries in these attacks gained access to a few power companies’ corporate networks, pivoted to industrial control system (ICS) networks, and created widespread physical effects in the form of power outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗