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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Assessment of HRA method predictions against operating crew performance: Part II: Overall simulator data, HRA method predictions, and intra-method comparisons

This is the third in a series of four papers documenting two large-scale human reliability analysis (HRA) empirical studies – the International HRA Empirical Study and the US HRA Empirical Study. Here, the goal of the two studies was to develop an empirically-based understanding of the performance, strengths, and weaknesses of HRA methods by comparing HRA method predictions against actual operator performance in simulated accident scenarios on nuclear power plant (NPP) simulators. However, since in most cases only a single HRA team applied a given method in the International study, it was often difficult to separate analyst effects from variability in results related to the methods themselves. Since at least two HRA teams used each of the HRA methods in the US Study, intra-method comparisons were performed to identify method strengths and weaknesses independent of analyst specific effects where possible. This paper first summarizes the intra-method comparison results from the U.S. Study. Then, it discusses the reasons for the observed HRA predictive differences and the underlying methodological and guidance limitations that permitted the differences to arise. In the fourth paper, this information is combined wit h the results of the comparisons of method predictions to the actual crew data, from both the International and U.S. Studies, to develop the final conclusions about overall strengths and weaknesses of HRA methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2012

Correcting Density Functional Theory for Accurate Predictions of Compound Enthalpies of Formation: Fitted Elemental-Phase Reference Energies

Despite the great success that theoretical approaches based on density functional theory have in describing properties of solid compounds, accurate predictions of the enthalpies of formation ({Delta}H{sub f}) of insulating and semiconducting solids still remain a challenge. This is mainly due to incomplete error cancellation when computing the total energy differences between the compound total energy and the total energies of its elemental constituents. In this paper we present an approach based on GGA + U calculations, including the spin-orbit coupling, which involves fitted elemental-phase reference energies (FERE) and which significantly improves the error cancellation resulting in accurate values for the compound enthalpies of formation. We use an extensive set of 252 binary compounds with measured {Delta}H{sub f} values (pnictides, chalcogenides, and halides) to obtain FERE energies and show that after the fitting, the 252 enthalpies of formation are reproduced with the mean absolute error MAE = 0.054 eV/atom instead of MAE {approx} 0.250 eV/atom resulting from pure GGA calculations. When applied to a set of 55 ternary compounds that were not part of the fitting set the FERE method reproduces their enthalpies of formation with MAE = 0.048 eV/atom. Furthermore, we find that contributions to the total energy differences coming from the spin-orbit coupling can be, to a good approximation, separated into purely atomic contributions which do not affect {Delta}H{sub f}. The FERE method, hence, represents a simple and general approach, as it is computationally equivalent to the cost of pure GGA calculations and applies to virtually all insulating and semiconducting compounds, for predicting compound {Delta}H{sub f} values with chemical accuracy. We also show that by providing accurate {Delta}H{sub f} the FERE approach can be applied for accurate predictions of the compound thermodynamic stability or for predictions of Li-ion battery voltages.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2011

Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

Drought is fundamentally the result of an extended period of reduced precipitation lasting anywhere from a few weeks to decades and even longer. As such, addressing drought predictability and prediction in a changing climate requires foremost that we make progress on the ability to predict precipitation anomalies on subseasonal and longer time scales. From the perspective of the users of drought forecasts and information, drought is however most directly viewed through its impacts (e.g., on soil moisture, streamflow, crop yields). As such, the question of the predictability of drought must extend to those quantities as well. In order to make progress on these issues, the WCRP drought information group (DIG), with the support of WCRP, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, the La Caixa Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, has organized a workshop to focus on: 1. User requirements for drought prediction information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 2. Current understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of drought on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 3. Current drought prediction/projection capabilities on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 4. Advancing regional drought prediction capabilities for variables and scales most relevant to user needs on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales. This introductory talk provides an overview of these goals, and outlines the occurrence and mechanisms of drought world-wide.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
DOE OSTI2014

Lattice constant prediction of defective rare earth titanate perovskites

Engineering defective structures in an attempt to modify properties is an established technique in materials chemistry, yet, no models exist which can predict the structure of perovskite compounds containing extrinsic point defects such as vacancies. An empirically derived predictive model, based solely on chemical composition and published ionic radii has been developed. Effective vacancy sizes were derived both empirically from an existing model for pseudocubic lattice-constants, as well as experimentally, from average bond lengths calculated from neutron diffraction data. Compounds of lanthanum-doped barium titanate and strontium-doped magnesium titanate were synthesized with vacancies engineered on the A and B sites. Effective vacancy sizes were then used in empirical models to predict changes in lattice constants. Experimentally refined bond lengths used in the derivation of an effective vacancy size seemed to overestimate the effect of the point defects. Conversely, using calculated vacancy sizes, derived from a previously reported predictive model, showed significant improvements in the prediction of the pseudocubic perovskite lattice. - Graphical abstract: Atomistic model of Sr{sub 0.3}Nd{sub 0.7}Mg{sub 0.35}Ti{sub 0.65}O{sub 3} and Rietveld refinement of neutron diffraction data. - Highlights: • Defective perovskites were synthesized using the organic steric entrapment method. • Oxygen tilt systems were solved through X-ray, electron, and neutron diffraction. • An effective vacancy size for the cations was calculated from experimental bond lengths. • Discrepancies between Shannon radii and experimental measurements are explored. • An empirical model for predicting a{sub pc}, with an absolute error of 0.20%, was developed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2012

Studies of the Raman Spectra of Cyclic and Acyclic Molecules: Combination and Prediction Spectrum Methods

A combination of Raman spectroscopy and density functional methods was employed to investigate the spectral features of selected molecules: furfural, 5-hydroxymethyl furfural (HMF), methanol, acetone, acetic acid, and levulinic acid. The computed spectra and measured spectra are in excellent agreement, consistent with previous studies. Using the combination and prediction spectrum method (CPSM), we were able to predict the important spectral features of two platform chemicals, HMF and levulinic acid.The results have shown that CPSM is a useful alternative method for predicting vibrational spectra of complex molecules in the biomass transformation process.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗
NASA NTRS1974

Correaltion of full-scale drag predictions with flight measurements on the C-141A aircraft. Phase 2: Wind tunnel test, analysis, and prediction techniques. Volume 1: Drag predictions, wind tunnel data analysis and correlation

The degree of cruise drag correlation on the C-141A aircraft is determined between predictions based on wind tunnel test data, and flight test results. An analysis of wind tunnel tests on a 0.0275 scale model at Reynolds number up to 3.05 x 1 million/MAC is reported. Model support interference corrections are evaluated through a series of tests, and fully corrected model data are analyzed to provide details on model component interference factors. It is shown that predicted minimum profile drag for the complete configuration agrees within 0.75% of flight test data, using a wind tunnel extrapolation method based on flat plate skin friction and component shape factors. An alternative method of extrapolation, based on computed profile drag from a subsonic viscous theory, results in a prediction four percent lower than flight test data.

Macwilkinson, D. G.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Size-extensivity-corrected multireference configuration interaction schemes to accurately predict bond dissociation energies of oxygenated hydrocarbons

Oxygenated hydrocarbons play important roles in combustion science as renewable fuels and additives, but many details about their combustion chemistry remain poorly understood. Although many methods exist for computing accurate electronic energies of molecules at equilibrium geometries, a consistent description of entire combustion reaction potential energy surfaces (PESs) requires multireference correlated wavefunction theories. Here we use bond dissociation energies (BDEs) as a foundational metric to benchmark methods based on multireference configuration interaction (MRCI) for several classes of oxygenated compounds (alcohols, aldehydes, carboxylic acids, and methyl esters). We compare results from multireference singles and doubles configuration interaction to those utilizing a posteriori and a priori size-extensivity corrections, benchmarked against experiment and coupled cluster theory. We demonstrate that size-extensivity corrections are necessary for chemically accurate BDE predictions even in relatively small molecules and furnish examples of unphysical BDE predictions resulting from using too-small orbital active spaces. We also outline the specific challenges in using MRCI methods for carbonyl-containing compounds. The resulting complete basis set extrapolated, size-extensivity-corrected MRCI scheme produces BDEs generally accurate to within 1 kcal/mol, laying the foundation for this scheme's use on larger molecules and for more complex regions of combustion PESs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1980

Solar activity prediction of sunspot numbers (verification). Predicted solar radio flux; predicted geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp

Efforts to further verify a previously reported technique for predicting monthly sunspot numbers over a period of years (1979 to 1989) involved the application of the technique over the period for the maximum epoch of solar cycle 19. Results obtained are presented. Methods and results for predicting solar flux (F10.7 cm) based on flux/sunspot number models, ascent and descent, and geomagnetic activity indices as a function of sunspot number and solar cycle phase classes are included.

Newman, S. R.↗