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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Assessment of HRA method predictions against operating crew performance: Part II: Overall simulator data, HRA method predictions, and intra-method comparisons

This is the third in a series of four papers documenting two large-scale human reliability analysis (HRA) empirical studies – the International HRA Empirical Study and the US HRA Empirical Study. Here, the goal of the two studies was to develop an empirically-based understanding of the performance, strengths, and weaknesses of HRA methods by comparing HRA method predictions against actual operator performance in simulated accident scenarios on nuclear power plant (NPP) simulators. However, since in most cases only a single HRA team applied a given method in the International study, it was often difficult to separate analyst effects from variability in results related to the methods themselves. Since at least two HRA teams used each of the HRA methods in the US Study, intra-method comparisons were performed to identify method strengths and weaknesses independent of analyst specific effects where possible. This paper first summarizes the intra-method comparison results from the U.S. Study. Then, it discusses the reasons for the observed HRA predictive differences and the underlying methodological and guidance limitations that permitted the differences to arise. In the fourth paper, this information is combined wit h the results of the comparisons of method predictions to the actual crew data, from both the International and U.S. Studies, to develop the final conclusions about overall strengths and weaknesses of HRA methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2012

Correcting Density Functional Theory for Accurate Predictions of Compound Enthalpies of Formation: Fitted Elemental-Phase Reference Energies

Despite the great success that theoretical approaches based on density functional theory have in describing properties of solid compounds, accurate predictions of the enthalpies of formation ({Delta}H{sub f}) of insulating and semiconducting solids still remain a challenge. This is mainly due to incomplete error cancellation when computing the total energy differences between the compound total energy and the total energies of its elemental constituents. In this paper we present an approach based on GGA + U calculations, including the spin-orbit coupling, which involves fitted elemental-phase reference energies (FERE) and which significantly improves the error cancellation resulting in accurate values for the compound enthalpies of formation. We use an extensive set of 252 binary compounds with measured {Delta}H{sub f} values (pnictides, chalcogenides, and halides) to obtain FERE energies and show that after the fitting, the 252 enthalpies of formation are reproduced with the mean absolute error MAE = 0.054 eV/atom instead of MAE {approx} 0.250 eV/atom resulting from pure GGA calculations. When applied to a set of 55 ternary compounds that were not part of the fitting set the FERE method reproduces their enthalpies of formation with MAE = 0.048 eV/atom. Furthermore, we find that contributions to the total energy differences coming from the spin-orbit coupling can be, to a good approximation, separated into purely atomic contributions which do not affect {Delta}H{sub f}. The FERE method, hence, represents a simple and general approach, as it is computationally equivalent to the cost of pure GGA calculations and applies to virtually all insulating and semiconducting compounds, for predicting compound {Delta}H{sub f} values with chemical accuracy. We also show that by providing accurate {Delta}H{sub f} the FERE approach can be applied for accurate predictions of the compound thermodynamic stability or for predictions of Li-ion battery voltages.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Lattice constant prediction of defective rare earth titanate perovskites

Engineering defective structures in an attempt to modify properties is an established technique in materials chemistry, yet, no models exist which can predict the structure of perovskite compounds containing extrinsic point defects such as vacancies. An empirically derived predictive model, based solely on chemical composition and published ionic radii has been developed. Effective vacancy sizes were derived both empirically from an existing model for pseudocubic lattice-constants, as well as experimentally, from average bond lengths calculated from neutron diffraction data. Compounds of lanthanum-doped barium titanate and strontium-doped magnesium titanate were synthesized with vacancies engineered on the A and B sites. Effective vacancy sizes were then used in empirical models to predict changes in lattice constants. Experimentally refined bond lengths used in the derivation of an effective vacancy size seemed to overestimate the effect of the point defects. Conversely, using calculated vacancy sizes, derived from a previously reported predictive model, showed significant improvements in the prediction of the pseudocubic perovskite lattice. - Graphical abstract: Atomistic model of Sr{sub 0.3}Nd{sub 0.7}Mg{sub 0.35}Ti{sub 0.65}O{sub 3} and Rietveld refinement of neutron diffraction data. - Highlights: • Defective perovskites were synthesized using the organic steric entrapment method. • Oxygen tilt systems were solved through X-ray, electron, and neutron diffraction. • An effective vacancy size for the cations was calculated from experimental bond lengths. • Discrepancies between Shannon radii and experimental measurements are explored. • An empirical model for predicting a{sub pc}, with an absolute error of 0.20%, was developed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2012

Studies of the Raman Spectra of Cyclic and Acyclic Molecules: Combination and Prediction Spectrum Methods

A combination of Raman spectroscopy and density functional methods was employed to investigate the spectral features of selected molecules: furfural, 5-hydroxymethyl furfural (HMF), methanol, acetone, acetic acid, and levulinic acid. The computed spectra and measured spectra are in excellent agreement, consistent with previous studies. Using the combination and prediction spectrum method (CPSM), we were able to predict the important spectral features of two platform chemicals, HMF and levulinic acid.The results have shown that CPSM is a useful alternative method for predicting vibrational spectra of complex molecules in the biomass transformation process.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2014

Size-extensivity-corrected multireference configuration interaction schemes to accurately predict bond dissociation energies of oxygenated hydrocarbons

Oxygenated hydrocarbons play important roles in combustion science as renewable fuels and additives, but many details about their combustion chemistry remain poorly understood. Although many methods exist for computing accurate electronic energies of molecules at equilibrium geometries, a consistent description of entire combustion reaction potential energy surfaces (PESs) requires multireference correlated wavefunction theories. Here we use bond dissociation energies (BDEs) as a foundational metric to benchmark methods based on multireference configuration interaction (MRCI) for several classes of oxygenated compounds (alcohols, aldehydes, carboxylic acids, and methyl esters). We compare results from multireference singles and doubles configuration interaction to those utilizing a posteriori and a priori size-extensivity corrections, benchmarked against experiment and coupled cluster theory. We demonstrate that size-extensivity corrections are necessary for chemically accurate BDE predictions even in relatively small molecules and furnish examples of unphysical BDE predictions resulting from using too-small orbital active spaces. We also outline the specific challenges in using MRCI methods for carbonyl-containing compounds. The resulting complete basis set extrapolated, size-extensivity-corrected MRCI scheme produces BDEs generally accurate to within 1 kcal/mol, laying the foundation for this scheme's use on larger molecules and for more complex regions of combustion PESs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Initialized Earth system prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales

Initialized Earth system predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction model in a state as consistent as possible to observations, and running it forward in time for up to ten years. Skillful predictions at time slices from subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), seasonal to interannual (S2I) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) offer information useful for various stakeholders, from agriculture to water resource management, and human and infrastructure safety. In this Review, we examine the processes influencing predictability, and discuss estimates of skill across S2S, S2I and S2D timescales. There are encouraging signs that skillful predictions can be made: at S2S timescales, there has been some skill in predicting the Madden-Julian Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation; at S2I in predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation; and at S2D, in predicting variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. However, challenges remain, and future work must prioritise reducing model error, more effectively communicating forecasts to users, and increasing process and mechanistic understanding that could increase predictive skill and, in turn, confidence. As numerical models progress towards Earth system models, initialized predictions are expanding to include prediction of sea-ice, air pollution, terrestrial and ocean biochemistry which can bring clear benefit to society and various stakeholders.

climate prediction↗
DOE OSTI2014

Incorporating single-side sparing in models for predicting parotid dose sparing in head and neck IMRT

Purpose: Sparing of single-side parotid gland is a common practice in head-and-neck (HN) intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) planning. It is a special case of dose sparing tradeoff between different organs-at-risk. The authors describe an improved mathematical model for predicting achievable dose sparing in parotid glands in HN IMRT planning that incorporates single-side sparing considerations based on patient anatomy and learning from prior plan data. Methods: Among 68 HN cases analyzed retrospectively, 35 cases had physician prescribed single-side parotid sparing preferences. The single-side sparing model was trained with cases which had single-side sparing preferences, while the standard model was trained with the remainder of cases. A receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis was performed to determine the best criterion that separates the two case groups using the physician's single-side sparing prescription as ground truth. The final predictive model (combined model) takes into account the single-side sparing by switching between the standard and single-side sparing models according to the single-side sparing criterion. The models were tested with 20 additional cases. The significance of the improvement of prediction accuracy by the combined model over the standard model was evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Results: Using the ROC analysis, the best single-side sparing criterion is (1) the predicted median dose of one parotid is higher than 24 Gy; and (2) that of the other is higher than 7 Gy. This criterion gives a true positive rate of 0.82 and a false positive rate of 0.19, respectively. For the bilateral sparing cases, the combined and the standard models performed equally well, with the median of the prediction errors for parotid median dose being 0.34 Gy by both models (p = 0.81). For the single-side sparing cases, the standard model overestimates the median dose by 7.8 Gy on average, while the predictions by the combined model differ from actual values by only 2.2 Gy (p = 0.005). Similarly, the sum of residues between the modeled and the actual plan DVHs is the same for the bilateral sparing cases by both models (p = 0.67), while the standard model predicts significantly higher DVHs than the combined model for the single-side sparing cases (p = 0.01). Conclusions: The combined model for predicting parotid sparing that takes into account single-side sparing improves the prediction accuracy over the previous model.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Initial value predictability of intrinsic oceanic modes and implications for decadal prediction over North America

The overall aim of our project was to quantify and characterize predictability of the climate as it pertains to decadal time scale predictions. By predictability we mean the degree to which a climate forecast can be distinguished from the climate that exists at initial forecast time, taking into consideration the growth of uncertainty that occurs as a result of the climate system being chaotic. In our project we were especially interested in predictability that arises from initializing forecasts from some specific state though we also contrast this predictability with predictability arising from forecasting the reaction of the system to external forcing – for example changes in greenhouse gas concentration. Also, we put special emphasis on the predictability of prominent intrinsic patterns of the system because they often dominate system behavior. Highlights from this work include: • Development of novel methods for estimating the predictability of climate forecast models. • Quantification of the initial value predictability limits of ocean heat content and the overturning circulation in the Atlantic as they are represented in various state of the art climate models. These limits varied substantially from model to model but on average were about a decade with North Atlantic heat content tending to be more predictable than North Pacific heat content. • Comparison of predictability resulting from knowledge of the current state of the climate system with predictability resulting from estimates of how the climate system will react to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. It turned out that knowledge of the initial state produces a larger impact on forecasts for the first 5 to 10 years of projections. • Estimation of the predictability of dominant patterns of ocean variability including well-known patterns of variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. For the most part these patterns were predictable for 5 to 10 years. • Determination of especially predictable patterns in the North Atlantic. The most predictable of these retain predictability substantially longer than generic patterns, with some being predictable for two decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗