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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

GenMod: A generative modeling approach for spectral representation of PDEs with random inputs

Here, we propose a method for quantifying uncertainty in high-dimensional PDE systems with random parameters, where the number of solution evaluations is small. Parametric PDE solutions are often approximated using a spectral decomposition based on polynomial chaos expansions. For the class of systems we consider (i.e., high dimensional with limited solution evaluations) the coefficients are given by an underdetermined linear system in a regression formulation. This implies additional assumptions, such as sparsity of the coefficient vector, are needed to approximate the solution. Here, we present an approach where we assume the coefficients are close to the range of a generative model that maps from a low to a high dimensional space of coefficients. Our approach is inspired be recent work examining how generative models can be used for compressed sensing in systems with random Gaussian measurement matrices. Using results from PDE theory on coefficient decay rates, we construct an explicit generative model that predicts the polynomial chaos coefficient magnitudes. The algorithm we developed to find the coefficients, which we call GenMod, is composed of two main steps. First, we predict the coefficient signs using Orthogonal Matching Pursuit. Then, we assume the coefficients are within a sparse deviation from the range of a sign-adjusted generative model. This allows us to find the coefficients by solving a nonconvex optimization problem, over the input space of the generative model and the space of sparse vectors. We obtain theoretical recovery results for a Lipschitz continuous generative model and for a more specific generative model, based on coefficient decay rate bounds. We examine three high-dimensional problems and show that, for all three examples, the generative model approach outperforms sparsity promoting methods at small sample sizes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An effective field theory for non-maximal quantum chaos

In non-maximally quantum chaotic systems, the exponential behavior of out-of-time-ordered correlators (OTOCs) results from summing over exchanges of an infinite tower of higher “spin” operators. We construct an effective field theory (EFT) to capture these exchanges in (0 + 1) dimensions. The EFT generalizes the one for maximally chaotic systems, and reduces to it in the limit of maximal chaos. The theory predicts the general structure of OTOCs both at leading order in the 1/N expansion (N is the number of degrees of freedom), and after resuming over an infinite number of higher order 1/N corrections. These general results agree with those previously explicitly obtained in specific models. We also show that the general structure of the EFT can be extracted from the large q SYK model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Data-driven chaos indicator for nonlinear dynamics and applications on storage ring lattice design

A data-driven chaos indicator concept is introduced to characterize the degree of chaos for nonlinear dynamical systems. The indicator is represented by the prediction accuracy of surrogate models established purely from data. It provides a metric for the predictability of nonlinear motions in a given system. When using the indicator to implement a tune-scan for a quadratic Hénon map, the main resonances and their asymmetric stop-band widths can be identified. When applied to particle transportation in a storage ring, as particle motion becomes more chaotic, its surrogate model prediction accuracy decreases correspondingly. So, the prediction accuracy, acting as a chaos indicator, can be used directly as the objective for nonlinear beam dynamics optimization. This method provides a different perspective on nonlinear beam dynamics and an efficient method for nonlinear lattice optimization. Applications in dynamic aperture optimization are demonstrated as real world examples.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Data-driven Chaos Indicator for Nonlinear Dynamics and Applications on Storage Ring Lattice Design

A data-driven chaos indicator concept is introduced to characterize the degree of chaos for nonlinear dynamical systems. The indicator is represented by the prediction accuracy of surrogate models established purely from data. It provides a metric for the predictability of nonlinear motions in a given system. When using the indicator to implement a tune-scan for a quadratic Hénon map, the main resonances and their asymmetric stop-band widths can be identified. When applied to particle transportation in a storage ring, as particle motion becomes more chaotic, its surrogate model prediction accuracy decreases correspondingly. Therefore, the prediction accuracy, acting as a chaos indicator, can be used directly as the objective for nonlinear beam dynamics optimization. This method provides a different perspective on nonlinear beam dynamics and an efficient method for nonlinear lattice optimization. Applications in dynamic aperture optimization are demonstrated as real world examples.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Evidence for temperature chaos in spin glasses

We study the field cooled magnetization of a CuMn spin glass (SG) under temperature perturbations. The T-cycling curves are compared with the reference curve without temperature cycling. There is a crossover from the cumulative aging region to noncumulative aging region as the temperature change is increased. The cumulative aging range scales with the chaos length, ℓ c , becoming comparable to the correlation length, ξ, at the crossover boundary. The extracted chaos exponent, ζ=1.1, is in agreement with theoretical predictions. Furthermore, our results strongly suggest temperature chaos exists in real SG systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Chaos as the cause of randomness in tearing mode onset times in DIII-D ITER baseline scenario plasmas

The first evidence of widespread chaotic plasma dynamics relevant to the onset of disruptive tearing modes is found in DIII-D tokamak discharges. This evidence is obtained by calculating positive maximal Lyapunov exponents from Mirnov signals using the Rosenstein algorithm, implying the chaotic growth and/or rotation of magnetohydrodynamic modes in DIII-D [Luxon, Nucl. Fusion 42, 614 (2002)] plasmas. Such chaotic dynamics offer an explanation for the random tearing mode onset times previously observed in ITER baseline scenario discharges. Further, the Lyapunov timescales associated with this chaos could inhibit reliable prediction of tearing mode onset beyond the angular momentum confinement timescale; this constraint should inform the design of plasma control systems on ITER.

Chaotic dynamics↗

Tuning of strong nonlinearity in radio-frequency superconducting-quantum-interference-device meta-atoms

Strong nonlinearity of a self-resonant radio-frequency (rf) superconducting-quantum-interference-device (SQUID) meta-atom is explored via intermodulation (IM) measurements. Previous work in zero dc magnetic flux showed a sharp onset of IM response as the frequency sweeps through the resonance. A second onset at higher frequency was also observed, creating a prominent gap in the IM response. By extending those measurements to nonzero dc flux, different dynamics are revealed, including dc flux tunability of the aforementioned gaps and enhanced IM response near geometric resonance of the rf SQUID. These features observed experimentally are understood and analyzed theoretically through a combination of a steady-state analytical modeling and a full numerical treatment of the rf SQUID dynamics. The latter in addition predicts the presence of chaos in narrow parameter regimes. Here, the understanding of intermodulation in rf SQUID metamaterials is important for producing low-noise amplification of microwave signals and tunable filters.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Approximating the linear response of physical chaos

Abstract Parametric derivatives of statistics are highly desired quantities in prediction, design optimization and uncertainty quantification. In the presence of chaos, the rigorous computation of these quantities is certainly possible, but mathematically complicated and computationally expensive. Based on Ruelle’s formalism, this paper shows that the sophisticated linear response algorithm can be dramatically simplified in higher-dimensional systems featuring statistical homogeneity in the physical space. We argue that the contribution of the SRB (Sinai–Ruelle–Bowen) measure gradient, which is an integral yet the most cumbersome part of the full algorithm, is negligible if the objective function is appropriately aligned with unstable manifolds. This abstract condition could potentially be satisfied by a vast family of real-world chaotic systems, regardless of the physical meaning and mathematical form of the objective function and perturbed parameter. We demonstrate several numerical examples that support these conclusions and that present the use and performance of a simplified linear response algorithm. In the numerical experiments, we consider physical models described by differential equations, including Lorenz 96 and Kuramoto–Sivashinsky.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Machine Learning-Guided Discovery of Ternary Compounds Containing La, P, and Group 14 Elements

In this work, we integrate a deep machine learning (ML) method with first-principles calculations to efficiently search for the energetically favorable ternary compounds. Using La–Si–P as a prototype system, we demonstrate that ML-guided first-principles calculations can efficiently explore crystal structures and their relative energetic stabilities, thus greatly accelerate the pace of material discovery. A number of new La–Si–P ternary compounds with formation energies less than 30 meV/atom above the known ternary convex hull are discovered. Among them, the formation energies of La 5 SiP 3 and La 2 SiP phases are only 2 and 10 meV/atom, respectively, above the convex hull. These two compounds are dynamically stable with no imaginary phonon modes. Moreover, by replacing Si with heavier-group 14 elements in the eight lowest-energy La–Si–P structures from our ML-guided predictions, a number of low-energy La–X–P phases (X = Ge, Sn, Pb) are predicted.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Predicting nonresonant pressure-driven MHD modes in equilibria with low magnetic shear

Nonresonant internal modes can be difficult to anticipate as there is no resonant surface in the plasma. However, equilibria that are unstable to multiple nonresonant magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes may be more prone to global loss of confinement since these instabilities generate spatially extended linear displacements, potentially enhancing magnetic field line chaos via nonlinear interactions. Here, we successfully predict the unstable nonresonant pressure-driven modes for equilibria with zero shear in the plasma core, irrational q on axis, and a central pressure gradient, which is consistent with pre-crash profiles in sawtoothing tokamak plasmas in the large-aspect-ratio limit. A criterion for identifying nonresonant modes most likely to be unstable is developed from the convergents of the continued fraction representation of q 0 . A higher-order analysis of the standard Energy Principle reveals the conditions under which these modes are expected to dominate. Linear growth rate spectra, as a function of toroidal mode number (up to n = 30), calculated using the initial-value extended-MHD code, M3D-C1, recover the characteristic dependence observed for ideal infernal modes. Nonresonant modes have also been invoked in some ideal sawtooth crash models. Finally, this work provides a mechanism to predict the mode numbers of infernal modes and, potentially, the width of some post-sawtooth-crash profiles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Power Grid Contingency Analysis with Machine Learning: A Brief Survey and Prospects

We briefly review previous applications of machine learning (ML) in power grid analyses and introduce our ongoing effort toward developing a generative-adversarial (GA) model for fast and reliable grid contingency analyses. According to our review, the persisting limitation of traditional ML techniques in grid analyses is the need for an exhaustive amount of training data for model generalization and accurate predictions. GA models overcome this limitation by first learning true data distribution from a small training set, from which new samples assimilating true data are generated with some variations. Subsequently, GA models can transfer learn or super-generalize with increased accuracy, that is, accurately predict n - (k + 2) contingencies from a small n - k training set and generated n - (k + 1) data. The joint effort between Idaho National Lab and Florida State University strives to develop a zero-shot and deep learning-based contingency analysis tool, named Smart Contingency Analysis Neural Network (SCANN), by leveraging the aforementioned advantages of GA models. The basic architecture of SCANN stems from the Latent Encoding of Atypical Perturbations network combined with an adversarial network, and it is designed to generate imbalanced power flow data from learned true data distributions for prediction purposes. Here we also introduce the abstract concept of resilience-chaos plots, a new resilience characterization tool proposed to complement SCANN by aiding in the assessment of large amounts of high-order contingency predictions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

Abstract This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of TC track, intensity, and size are perturbed according to quasi-random Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of hydrodynamic storm tide model simulations. The resulting set of maximum water surface elevations are dimensionality reduced using Karhunen–Loève expansions and then used as a training set to develop a polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate model from which global sensitivities and probabilistic predictions can be extracted. The maximum water surface elevation is extrapolated over dry points incorporating energy head loss with distance to properly train the surrogate for predicting inundation. We find that the surrogate constructed with third-order PCs using elastic net penalized regression with leave-one-out cross validation provides the most robust fit across training and test sets. Probabilistic predictions of maximum water surface elevation and inundation area by the surrogate model at 48-h lead time for three past U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Laura in 2020) are found to be reliable when compared to best track hindcast simulation results, even when trained with as few as 19 samples. The maximum water surface elevation is most sensitive to perpendicular track-offset errors for all three storms. Laura is also highly sensitive to storm size and has the least reliable prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology that can be used to provide high-quality probabilistic predictions of hurricane-induced storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. This is important for emergency management purposes during or after the landfall of hurricanes. Our results show that sampling forecast errors using quasi-random sequences combined with machine learning techniques that fit polynomial functions to the data are well suited to this task. The polynomial functions also have the benefit of producing exact sensitivity indices of storm tide and inundation to the forecasted hurricane properties such as path, intensity, and size, which can be used for uncertainty estimation. The code implementing the presented methodology is publicly available on GitHub.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Orbital stability analysis of hypothetical Earth-mass and Luna-mass moons in the Sagarmatha (HD 100777) star system

Abstract Six of the solar system planets have 150 confirmed moons (Earth—1, Mars—2, Jupiter—53, Saturn—53, Uranus—27, Neptune—14) and seven of them (Ganymede, Titan, Callisto, Io, the Moon, Europa, Triton) have masses >0.001 $M_\oplus$. However, no exomoons have yet been discovered despite the successful detection of ∼5000 exoplanets. We can infer, based on the solar system planets, that these exoplanets are capable of hosting one or more exomoons. In this paper, we study the possible existence of hypothetical Earth-mass and Luna-mass moons orbiting the Jupiter-mass planet, Laligurans (HD 100777b) in the Sagarmatha (HD 100777) star system by means of orbital stability. We apply long-term orbital integrations and the MEGNO (mean exponential growth of nearby orbits) chaos indicator to study the orbital stability of the moons and predict a phase-space region comprising periodic, chaotic, and unstable orbits. The phase spaces primarily constitute the moon's semimajor axis, which extends from the host planet's Roche radius to the Hill radius, and full range of eccentricity. Specific points are picked from three different regions of the MEGNO map and run as single-orbit integration for up to 10 billion periods of the innermost orbit. Furthermore, the lifetime and maximum eccentricity maps are generated from the direct integration to inspect the stable and unstable orbital configurations. The analyses of these maps, with the aid of time-series plots, show that both moons maintain stable orbits in the low-eccentricity regime and semimajor axis between the Roche limit and 28.4% of the Hill radius of the planet.

Gautam, Aayush (ORCID:0000000247257589)↗

Entanglement Structure of Non-Gaussian States and How to Measure It

Rapidly growing capabilities of quantum simulators to probe quantum many-body phenomena require new methods to characterize increasingly complex states. Here, we present a protocol that constrains quantum states using experimentally measured correlation functions. This method enables measurement of a quantum state’s entanglement structure, opening a new route to study entanglement-related phenomena. Our approach extends Gaussian state parameterizations by systematically incorporating higher-order correlations. We show the protocol’s usefulness in conjunction with current and forthcoming experimental capabilities, focusing on weakly interacting fermions as a proof of concept. Here, the lowest nontrivial expansion quantitatively predicts early time thermalization dynamics, including signaling the onset of quantum chaos indicated by the entanglement Hamiltonian.

Fermi gases↗

Mechanistic calculation of the effective silver diffusion coefficient in polycrystalline silicon carbide: Application to silver release in AGR-1 TRISO particles

The silicon carbide (SiC) layer in tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles serves as a barrier to prevent the escape of fission products produced and not retained in the fuel kernel. The release of silver (Ag) is a concern due to the long half-life of the 110m Ag isotope. However, accurately determining the fission gas release rate requires knowing the diffusion coefficient through the SiC layer. In this study, we leverage atomistic calculations of Ag diffusivity in SiC bulk and grain boundaries (GBs) to develop a mesoscale effective Ag diffusion coefficient (D eff ) in SiC. Since GBs serve as pathways for Ag diffusion, D eff is defined as a function of temperature and microstructure variables. In particular, the size of SiC grains in the direction perpendicular to diffusion is shown to significantly affect Ag diffusion. The prediction of the mechanistic, mesoscale approach falls within one order of magnitude of empirical values. The temperature and microstructure-dependent effective Ag diffusivity in SiC is implemented in the fuel performance code Bison with a correction factor to predict Ag release from AGR-1 TRISO fuel particles. We hereby quantify the impact of SiC grain size on Ag release and improve Bison’s predictions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Data-Driven Exploration of Climate Attractor Manifolds For Long-Term Predictability

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal Area 3. We seek to gain insight into decadal-scale climate predictability by applying novel manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques to the complex data produced by Earth System models (ESMs) such as E3SM. The associated portfolio of research activities leverages DOE’s asset mix of HPC platforms, climate expertise, climate simulation codes, and AI expertise. Science Challenge: Climate and climate models are dynamical systems exhibiting properties that are interpretable through chaos theory. The theory contains an important concept that is relevant to multi-decade-scale climate prediction: a chaotic attractor. While the space containing all the possible states of the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean, the possible weather, is large, the realized states tend to stay near the smaller-dimensioned attractor. This behavior is responsible for the “order behind the irregularity” [1] of climate phenomena. Climate change can be thought of as a change in the properties of the attractor, and predicting the climate over years to decades is equivalent to predicting how those properties will change. To date, the attractor has been a useful conceptual tool, but has not been amenable to direct characterization. A new development is the advent of efficient high-dimensional manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques, which permit a data-driven characterization of the ESM attractor and its probability distribution over weather states. Such a characterization would result in a natural dimensional reduction — a “non-linear Principal Components Analysis (PCA) adapted to climate simulation data” — leading to important advances in scenario-based long-term climate prediction, long-term prediction of water cycle extremes, ESM verification, inter-model comparison, and process model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Irradiated Fueled Experiments using the MOOSE Framework [Slides]

Modeling and simulation (M&S) methods are able to predict uncertainties in experimental parameters (e.g., power and fission density) during irradiation. A shortfall exists in predicting how sensitive some of the parameters will behave during the experimental process. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification (SUQ) is critical in support of qualification and licensing reactor fuels. The application of a method to quantify the uncertainty in these experiments is critical to the prediction of their performance. In this work, we propose the use of a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) method to quantify the sensitive parameters in these simulations and, in an extension, their experimental surrogates. We propose to perform M&S using PCE uncertainty quantification on a previously irradiated fueled experiment in order to provide a validation case for Griffin and expand its use as a verification and validation (V&V) tool for experiments with a neutronics component. Griffin is an advanced, deterministic neutronics analysis code built using the MOOSE (multiphysics object-oriented simulation environment) framework which can provide state-of-the-art neutronic analysis on M&S of experiments. We will use the stochastic tools module (STM) in MOOSE to provide PCE uncertainty quantification on the proposed experimental setup. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) does not yet have an in-house developed code with V&V approval for experiments performed on-site; this work would provide a necessary addition of support for experiments performed at INL. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has explicitly requested uncertainties in calculated values such as fuel power and burnup, and the development of this capability would benefit the relationship between INL and the NRC.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗