Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Predictive Value of Tests”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

Performance of statistical energy analysis

Statistical energy analysis (SEA) methods have been developed for high frequency modal analyses on random vibration environments. These SEA methods are evaluated by comparing analytical predictions to test results. Simple test methods are developed for establishing SEA parameter values. Techniques are presented, based on the comparison of the predictions with test values, for estimating SEA accuracy as a function of frequency for a general structure.

Davis, R. F.↗

Fatigue delamination onset prediction in tapered composite laminates

Tapered (0 deg) laminates of S2/CE9000 and S2/SP250 glass/epoxies, and IM6/1827I graphite/epoxy were tested in cyclic tension. The specimens usually showed some initial stable delaminations in the tapered region, but these did not affect the stiffness of the specimens, and loading was continued until the specimens either delaminated unstably, or reached 10(exp 6) to 2 x 10(exp 7) million cycles with no unstable delamination. The final unstable delamination originated at the junction of the thin and tapered regions. A finite-element model was developed for the tapered laminate with and without the initial stable delaminations observed in the tests. The analysis showed that for both cases the most likely place for an opening (Mode 1) delamination to originate is at the junction of the taper and thin regions. For each material type, the models were used to calculate the strain energy release rate, G, associated with delaminations originating at that junction and growing either into the thin region or tapered region. For the materials tested, cyclic G(sub Imax) values from DCB tests were used with the maximum strain energy release rates calculated from the finite-element analysis to predict the onset of unstable delamination at the junction as a function of fatigue cycles. The predictions were compared to experimental values of maximum cyclic load as a function of cycles to unstable delamination from fatigue tests in tapered laminates. For the IM6/1827I and S2/SP250 laminates, the predictions agreed very well with the test data. Predicted values for the S2/CE9000 were conservative compared to the test data.

Murri, Gretchen Bostaph↗

Fatigue delamination onset prediction in unidirectional tapered laminates

Tapered (0 deg) laminates of S2/CE9000 and S2/SP250 glass/epoxies, and IM6/1827I graphite/epoxy were tested in cyclic tension. The specimens usually showed some initial stable delaminations in the tapered region, but these did not affect the stiffness of the specimens, and loading was continued until the specimens either delaminated unstably, or reached 10(exp 6) to 2 x 10 (exp 7) million cycles with no unstable delamination. The final unstable delamination originated at the junction of the thin and tapered regions. A finite-element model was developed for the tapered laminate with and without the initial stable delaminations observed in the tests. The analysis showed that for both cases the most likely place for an opening (Mode I) delamination to originate is at the junction of the taper and thin regions. For each material type, the models were used to calculate the strain energy release rate, G, associated with delaminations originating at that junction and growing either into the thin region or tapered region. For the materials tested, cyclic G(sub Imax) values from DCB tests were used with the maximum strain energy release rates calculated from the finite-element analysis to predict the onset of unstable delamination at the junction as a function of fatigue cycles. The predictions were compared to experimental values of maximum cyclic load as a function of cycles to unstable delamination from fatigue tests in tapered laminates. For the IM6/1827I and S2/SP250 laminates, the predictions agreed very well with the test data. Predicted values for the S2/CE9000 were conservative compared to the test data.

Murri, Gretchen B.↗

Comparison of ISRU Excavation System Model Blade Force Methodology and Experimental Results

An Excavation System Model has been written to simulate the collection and transportation of regolith on the Moon. The calculations in this model include an estimation of the forces on the digging tool as a result of excavation into the regolith. Verification testing has been performed and the forces recorded from this testing were compared to the calculated theoretical data. A prototype lunar vehicle built at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) was tested with a bulldozer type blade developed at the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) attached to the front. This is the initial correlation of actual field test data to the blade forces calculated by the Excavation System Model and the test data followed similar trends with the predicted values. This testing occurred in soils developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) which are a mixture of different types of sands and whose soil properties have been well characterized. Three separate analytical models are compared to the test data.

Gallo, Christopher A.↗

Adaptive Machine Learning for Bragg Coherent Diffraction Imaging (BCDI) of 3D Electron Density Maps with Application to La 2-x Ba x CuO 4 (LBCO) High Temperature Superconductor Studies [PowerPoint]

Understanding mesoscale heterogeneity is important for evaluating fatigue and failure of structural materials and for manufacturing processes. Data-driven tools can facilitate in guiding effort investment (measurements and computations) at various stages of the materials development. Our 3D reconstruction approach is to find a set of coefficients which define a bounding surface of the electron density. Data for training the 3D CNN was generated by sampling coefficients from uniform distributions. Test vs. prediction values are shown for the 28 even-valued coefficients for 1000 test structures, with the best and worst performers highlighted. The adaptive part of this work utilized a model independent extremum seeking (ES). The predictions of the CNN were used as the starting point for the ES algorithm. The convergence of the ES algorithm for 3 different structures is illustrated, and the robustness of the adaptive ML approach was demonstrated on experimentally measured 3D crystal from high energy diffraction microscopy. Reconstruction of a non-uniform density volume with different levels of Poisson noise is also shown. Preliminary attempts at reconstructing measured La 2-x Ba x CuO 4 diffraction patterns have so far failed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Environmental and structural assessment of four year in-commercial service composite helicopter structures

This paper presents the technical background for including environmental effects in the design of helicopter composite structures. This effort was supported by test results of components and panels having up to four years of field exposure. The preceeding was part of an eight year program to evaluate in-service environmental factors for comparison with laboratory test results. Full scale static and fatigue tests were conducted on composite components removed from S-76 helicopters used in commercial operations in the Gulf Coast region of Louisiana. Small scale tests were conducted using coupons removed from panels exposed to the outdoor environment in Stratford, Connecticut and West Palm Beach, Florida. Panel configurations were representative of S-76 components. Moisture analysis and strength tests on components and panels are reported after two, three and four years of exposure. Moisture levels were compared with predicted values. Mechanical test results were compared to initial certification tests for component strength, and to baseline laboratory coupon testing.

Ezzo, M. B.↗

(U) A Linear Response Model Predicts Reactivity From a Density Profile

We tested the ability to predict the system reactivity, described by alpha, given a density profile using a simple linear system response. We generated a suite of 1-dimensional density profiles that consisted of nominal density, a discontinuity, and a decay. These profiles were prescribed a functional form and the mass was conserved in all cases. From these density profiles, we calculated the alpha value of the 3-dimensional system.We calculated a linear response function given a training set of the 1-dimensional density profiles, and the system reactivity described by alpha. We tested the robustness of the response function using the remaining test data. Our results showed very good agreement between the predicted and calculated test values, where the distribution of alpha differences was centered about zero and had a standard deviation of 0.005 gens/shake. The predicted and calculated alpha values did not significantly differ (t=-0.0009 p<0.99). We used Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) to reduce the matrix rank by retaining95% of the cumulative singular value contributions. This reduced the matrix rank by 91.7%. We generated the linear response matrix and calculated the difference between the predicted and calculated alpha values. Using the reduced order matrix, we showed good agreement between the predicted and calculated alpha values where the distribution of differences was centered near zero, the standard deviation was 0.006 gens/shake, and the statistical t-test showed good agreement (t=0.02, p<0.98). These results show a linear relationship between a series of 1-dimensional density profiles,where the mass was conserved, and the system reactivity. The next steps of this work will be to investigate the linear response using 2-dimensional density profiles.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Comparison of Wind-Tunnel Predictions with Flight Measurements of the Longitudinal-Stability and -Control Characteristics of a Douglas BTD-1 Airplane

Low Mach number longitudinal-stability and control characteristics as predicted by use of wind tunnel data from a powered 3/16-scale model are compared with flight test measurements of a Navy BTD-1 airplane. The accuracy of the wind tunnel data and the discrepancies involved in attempting to correlate with flight data are discussed and analyzed. The comparison showed that wind tunnel predictions were, in general, in good agreement with flight test data. The predicted values were for the most part sufficiently accurate to show the satisfactory and unsatisfactory characteristics in the preliminary design stage and to indicate possible methods of improvement. The discrepancies which did occur were attributed principally to physical dissimilarities between model and airplane and the instability to determine accurately the flight power conditions. The effect of Mach number was considered negligible since the maximum flight test value was about 0.5. In order to simulate more closely the flight conditions and hence obtain more accurate data for predictions, it appears desirable to perform large-scale tests of unorthodox control surfaces such as the sealed vaned elevators with which the airplane was equipped.

Bunnell, Mort V.↗

Thermal-Structural Analysis of PICA Tiles for Solar Tower Test

Thermal protection materials used in spacecraft heatshields are subjected to severe thermal and mechanical loading environments during re-entry into earth atmosphere. In order to investigate the reliability of PICA tiles in the presence of high thermal gradients as well as mechanical loads, the authors designed and conducted solar-tower tests. This paper presents the design and analysis work for this tests series. Coupled non-linear thermal-mechanical finite element analyses was conducted to estimate in-depth temperature distribution and stress contours for various cases. The first set of analyses performed on isolated PICA tile showed that stresses generated during the tests were below the PICA allowable limit and should not lead to any catastrophic failure during the test. The tests results were consistent with analytical predictions. The temperature distribution and magnitude of the measured strains were also consistent with predicted values. The second test series is designed to test the arrayed PICA tiles with various gap-filler materials. A nonlinear contact method is used to model the complex geometry with various tiles. The analyses for these coupons predict the stress contours in PICA and inside gap fillers. Suitable mechanical loads for this architecture will be predicted, which can be applied during the test to exceed the allowable limits and demonstrate failure modes. Thermocouple and strain-gauge data obtained from the solar tower tests will be used for subsequent analyses and validation of FEM models.

Agrawal, Parul↗

A Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Evaluate the Cumulative Effects of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse: Sensitivity Analysis and Validation of Key Parameters

To address the need for an approach to evaluate cumulative ecological impacts of wind energy development, particularly those on critical wildlife habitats and species, the authors developed a proof-of-concept, landscape-based, spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM) framework for populations of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Albany County, Wyoming, based on published and other available information on the life history of the species. This sage-grouse IBM estimates the spatial and temporal movements of sage-grouse based on modeled effects of habitat characteristics and developments on sage-grouse condition, survivorship, and reproduction. After completing the initial version of the model, we conducted a series of sensitivity analyses of key model parameters and validation of lek occurrences and spatial distributions to better understand performance of the model relative to observed values of important life history characteristics. The parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted as a series of one-factor-at-a-time tests in which the values of selected parameters were individually varied to evaluate the corresponding effects on model output. We examined the model’s response to changes in parameter values to gain insight into the overall robustness of the model, identify key driver parameters, and initiate qualitative validation. Five functions selected for sensitivity analyses were (1) the rate of change in body condition in relationship to habitat suitability index (HSI) of occupied habitat (condition change rate), (2) the effect of competition between individuals with overlapping home ranges expressed as a percentage reduction in HSI (competition factor), (3) value of condition at which survivorship probability is equal to zero (zero survivorship condition), (4) the relationship between female body condition and clutch size, and (5) the relationship between female body condition and nest success. We varied the parameter values to be tested for the sensitivity analysis around the original value used in the model (i.e., tested values were higher and lower than the model’s original value) to examine the effect of this variation on the predicted output of the model. Model outputs evaluated in the sensitivity analysis included (1) predicted age-class distribution (as measured by the percentage of immature individuals within the population); (2) predicted sex ratio; (3) predicted age-sex class distribution (percent of population in each of six age-sex classes, i.e., male and female juveniles, yearlings, and adults); (4) lifespan; (5) population size; and (6) spatial distribution. Of the five parameters analyzed, condition change rate, survivorship, clutch size, and nest success did not substantially affect any of the evaluated model outputs. For the predicted age-class distribution, the percentage of immature individuals predicted by the model for these four parameters ranged from 61.9% to 65.0%, which was reasonable with respect to the reference values of 51.4 to 57.8% in published studies. The ratio of females to males ranged from 1.09 to 1.14, which was comparable to the reference values of 1.2 to 3.0 presented in an existing study. The predicted mean lifespan ranged from 1.62 to 1.74 years, which appears to be reasonable with respect to the reference values of 0.9 to 1.1 years for sharp-tail grouse and greater prairie chickens presented by published studies. The predicted population size ranged from 1,877 to 3,140. This prediction would be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county. The predicted spatial distribution was not substantially affected by the parameter values examined. In our sensitivity analyses, the only tested parameter that had a noticeable effect on model output was competition factor. Over the range of values tested for this parameter, predicted population size exhibited the largest range (from 1,833 to 4,737) of all parameters tested. As the competition factor increased, the predicted population size decreased. This reflects the effect competition had on the number of individuals that could co occur in high-quality habitat patches. Despite this apparently significant effect, the range of values appears to be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Dynamic structural aeroelastic stability testing of the XV-15 tilt rotor research aircraft

For the past 20 years, a significant effort has been made to understand and predict the structural aeroelastic stability characteristics of the tilt rotor concept. Beginning with the rotor-pylon oscillation of the XV-3 aircraft, the problem was identified and then subjected to a series of theoretical studies, plus model and full-scale wind tunnel tests. From this data base, methods were developed to predict the structural aeroelastic stability characteristics of the XV-15 Tilt Rotor Research Aircraft. The predicted aeroelastic characteristics are examined in light of the major parameters effecting rotor-pylon-wing stability. Flight test techniques used to obtain XV-15 aeroelastic stability are described. Flight test results are summarized and compared to the predicted values. Wind tunnel results are compared to flight test results and correlated with predicted values.

Schroers, L. G.↗

Interaction between polymer constituents and the structure of biopolymers

The paper reviews the current status of methods for calculating intermolecular interactions between biopolymer units. The nature of forces contributing to the various domains of intermolecular separations is investigated, and various approximations applicable in the respective regions are examined. The predictive value of current theory is tested by establishing a connection with macroscopic properties and comparing the theoretical predicted values with those derived from experimental data. This has led to the introduction of a statistical model describing DNA.

Rein, R.↗

An improved method for predicting the effects of flight on jet mixing noise

A method for predicting the effects of flight on jet mixing noise has been developed on the basis of the jet noise theory of Ffowcs-Williams (1963) and data derived from model-jet/free-jet simulated flight tests. Predicted and experimental values are compared for the J85 turbojet engine on the Bertin Aerotrain, the low-bypass refanned JT8D engine on a DC-9, and the high-bypass JT9D engine on a DC-10. Over the jet velocity range from 280 to 680 m/sec, the predictions show a standard deviation of 1.5 dB.

Stone, J. R.↗

Investigating performance and variability of NIF ICF experiments with deep learning

The parameter space involved in designing an inertial confinement fusion shot at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) is massively multi-dimensional and the cost of a single shot makes a comprehensive set of sensitivity studies in the laboratory impractical. The use of machine learning to overcome these challenges has gained popularity and has had several successful applications by the scientific community. We extend on these efforts by training a neural network (NN) on information about the experimental design, engineering elements, and drive asymmetry to predict with uncertainty the neutron yield of an experiment. We find the measured and model predicted values are in good agreement, with an R 2 value of 0.91 for a randomly selected test dataset. Almost all the predicted 95% credible intervals contain the corresponding measured value for both training and test datasets. We identify correlations picked up by the NN between the shot design, yield, and variability and use them to motivate shot sensitivity studies. The first shot to exceed the Lawson-like ignition criteria (N210808) was conducted at the NIF and subsequent shots studied the design’s robustness. In a follow-up shot to N210808, our model predicts capsule quality to be the main performance degradation mechanism that prevented the shot from repeating previous performance levels. Shot N221204 was the first shot to exceed a target energy gain of 1. Our model predicts increased yield with reduced coast time for a N221204 study and greater variability for designs with lower peak powers at constant yield. The model’s fast prediction speed and uncertainty prediction are useful for identifying interesting design paths that could warrant further investigation with conventional simulations to search for robust high yield designs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Performance measurement of low concentration ratio solar array for space application

The measured performance of a silicon and a gallium arsenide low concentration ratio solar array (LCRSA) element is presented. The element characteristics measured in natural sunlight are off pointing performance and response to mechanical distortions. Laboratory measurements of individual silicon and gallium-arsenide solar cell assemblies are also made. The characteristics measured in the laboratory involved responses to temperature and intensity variations as well as to the application of reverse bias potentials. The element design details covered include the materials, the solar cells, and the rationale for selecting these specific characteristics. The measured performance characteristics are contrasted with the predicted values for both laboratory testing and high altitude natural sunlight testing. Excellent agreement between analytical predictions and measured performance is observed.

Mills, M. W.↗

Comparison of Exploration Portable Life Support Subsystem (xPLSS) Thermal Modeling to Thermal Vacuum Testing

To support NASA’s goal to return to the Moon through the Artemis mission, the development of an exploration portable life support system (xPLSS) has been conducted at Johnson Space Center (JSC). As part of this development process, a large system level thermal/fluid model of the xPLSS was developed using Thermal Desktop and an in-house human model (METMAN). The xPLSS model was used throughout the design process to predict the performance and temperature of nearly all components within the xPLSS. In the fall of 2023, the design, verification, and testing (DVT) unit of the xPLSS was tested in a thermal vacuum (TVAC) chamber at JSC. This testing consisted of combining the xPLSS with an upper torso of the exploration pressure garment system (xPGS) and simulating five extravehicular activities (EVAs) in extreme thermal conditions (two cold EVAs and three hot EVAs). The data generated in this test series provided system level data of the xPLSS operating in vacuum and at flight-like environmental temperatures for the first time. This data was compared to results output by the xPLSS system model to assess the accuracy of previous analyses and improve the fidelity and accuracy of the xPLSS system model. The comparison between model and test hardware provides valuable insight that will help improve the design and fidelity of next generation space suits. In general, comparison between test data and model data generally showed slightly un-conservative values (model predicting colder temperatures than test in hot environments, and hotter temperatures than test in cold environments). Model assumptions and test assumptions were assessed to understand potential causes of some of these sources in error. Recommendations to improve the fidelity of the xPLSS model were also made based on the results presented in this paper.

xPLSS↗

Comparison of Exploration Portable Life Support Subsystem (xPLSS) Thermal Modeling to Thermal Vacuum Testing

To support NASA’s goal to return to the Moon through the Artemis Mission, the development of an Exploration Portable Life Support Subsystem (xPLSS) has been conducted at Johnson Space Center (JSC). As part of this development process, a large system level thermal/fluid model of the xPLSS was developed using Thermal Desktop and an in-house human model (METMAN). The xPLSS model was used throughout the design process to predict the performance and temperature of nearly all components within the xPLSS. In the fall of 2023, the Design, Verification, and Testing (DVT) unit of the xPLSS was tested in a thermal vacuum (TVAC) chamber at JSC. This testing consisted of combining the xPLSS with an upper torso of the Exploration Pressure Garment System (xPGS) and simulating five Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) in extreme thermal conditions (two cold EVAs and three hot EVAs). The data generated in this test series provided system level data of the xPLSS operating in vacuum and at flight-like environmental temperatures for the first time. These data were compared to results output by the xPLSS system model to assess the accuracy of previous analyses and improve the fidelity and accuracy of the xPLSS system model. The comparison between model and test hardware provides valuable insight that will help improve the design and fidelity of next generation space suits. In general, comparison between test data and model data generally showed slightly un-conservative values (model predicting colder temperatures than test in hot environments, and hotter temperatures than test in cold environments). Model assumptions and test assumptions were assessed to understand potential causes of some of these sources in error. Recommendations to improve the fidelity of the xPLSS model were also made based on the results presented in this paper.

xPLSS↗