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At least 19 records

Resolving Wave-Particle Duality Could Accelerate the Mass Production of Quantum Computers

Quantum computers, hypothesized in 1980s, use concepts of superposition and entanglement phenomena. Although theoretical propositions and associated search algorithms for accurate measurements are being generated, the development of practical quantum computers themselves are advancing very slowly requiring enormous time and investments. The underlying concepts of a quantum computer are not new to the optical domain. However, the crucial enabling concepts of Entanglement and Superposition Principle are remaining clouded under the unresolved postulates, Wave-Particle Duality (WPD), and Wave Packet Reduction (WPR), implicating incompleteness in the interpretations of the mathematical formalism behind Quantum Mechanics. The WPD debate started during late1600 between Newton and Huygens. Young’s resolution of WPD through his double-slit experiment in 1802 was effectively overturned by Einstein’s interpretation of photoelectric effect as due to “indivisible light quanta”. However, Einstein disowned his “light quanta” postulate shortly before his death in1955, even though it had earned him the Nobel Prize. We resolve WPD by synthesizing Newton’s and Maxwell’s concepts and assume atoms do emit quanta but propagate as time-finite exponential pulses. This assumption also resolves WPR for light-matter interaction with the assumption that Schrodinger’s ψ represents atom’s internal dipolar amplitude stimulations. This over-turns Born’s interpretation that ψ only represents the abstract mathematical probability amplitude, rather than the physical “internal amplitude stimulation” of the quantum entity. However, our concept of atomic pulse emission forces us to re-derive the expression for the N-slit grating-spectrometer response since the classical derivation uses CW light, which does not exist. This pulsespectrometric response function strengthens our postulate since the grating response to the exponential pulse appears to be the convolution of a Lorentzian spectrum with the classical CW response function of the grating. The Fourier Transform of an exponential function is Lorentzian and QM predicts spontaneous emission line width to be Lorentzian. Then, conceptually one can extend the grating-expression (with N=2) to get the double-slit pattern. This approach preserves the classical causality that each of the two slits, like the N-signals out of a grating, are physically real and jointly stimulate the quantum detector array at the far field to generate the “Local” cosine fringes. The detector array executes the square modulus operation on its imposed dipolar amplitude stimulation and absorbs the necessary energy to fill up their quantum cups. Hence the double-slit pattern must also be “Local”, just as the N-slit grating spectrum is generated locally at the exit spectral-plane of the spectrometer. This removes the need to believe that “single photons” mysteriously generate the double slit pattern. Quantum computers, hypothesized in 1980s, use concepts of superposition and entanglement phenomena. Although theoretical propositions and associated search algorithms for accurate measurements are being generated, the development of practical quantum computers themselves are advancing very slowly requiring enormous time and investments. The underlying concepts of a quantum computer are not new to the optical domain. However, the crucial enabling concepts of Entanglement and Superposition Principle are remaining clouded under the unresolved postulates, Wave-Particle Duality (WPD), and Wave Packet Reduction (WPR), implicating incompleteness in the interpretations of the mathematical formalism behind Quantum Mechanics. The WPD debate started during late1600 between Newton and Huygens. Young’s resolution of WPD through his double-slit experiment in 1802 was effectively overturned by Einstein’s interpretation of photoelectric effect as due to “indivisible light quanta”. However, Einstein disowned his “light quanta” postulate shortly before his death in1955, even though it had earned him the Nobel Prize. We resolve WPD by synthesizing Newton’s and Maxwell’s concepts and assume atoms do emit quanta but propagate as time-finite exponential pulses. This assumption also resolves WPR for light-matter interaction with the assumption that Schrodinger’s ψ represents atom’s internal dipolar amplitude stimulations. This over-turns Born’s interpretation that ψ only represents the abstract mathematical probability amplitude, rather than the physical “internal amplitude stimulation” of the quantum entity. However, our concept of atomic pulse emission forces us to re-derive the expression for the N-slit grating-spectrometer response since the classical derivation uses CW light, which does not exist. This pulsespectrometric response function strengthens our postulate since the grating response to the exponential pulse appears to be the convolution of a Lorentzian spectrum with the classical CW response function of the grating. The Fourier Transform of an exponential function is Lorentzian and QM predicts spontaneous emission line width to be Lorentzian. Then, conceptually one can extend the grating-expression (with N=2) to get the double-slit pattern. This approach preserves the classical causality that each of the two slits, like the N-signals out of a grating, are physically real and jointly stimulate the quantum detector array at the far field to generate the “Local” cosine fringes. The detector array executes the square modulus operation on its imposed dipolar amplitude stimulation and absorbs the necessary energy to fill up their quantum cups. Hence the double-slit pattern must also be “Local”, just as the N-slit grating spectrum is generated locally at the exit spectral-plane of the spectrometer. This removes the need to believe that “single photons” mysteriously generate the double slit pattern.

Quantum Computer↗

Extravehicular Mobility Unit Penetration Probability from Micrometeoroids and Orbital Debris: Revised Analytical Model and Potential Space Suit Improvements

The NASA Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) micrometeoroid and orbital debris protection ability has recently been assessed against an updated, higher threat space environment model. The new environment was analyzed in conjunction with a revised EMU solid model using a NASA computer code. Results showed that the EMU exceeds the required mathematical Probability of having No Penetrations (PNP) of any suit pressure bladder over the remaining life of the program (2,700 projected hours of 2 person spacewalks). The success probability was calculated to be 0.94, versus a requirement of >0.91, for the current spacesuit s outer protective garment. In parallel to the probability assessment, potential improvements to the current spacesuit s outer protective garment were built and impact tested. A NASA light gas gun was used to launch projectiles at test items, at speeds of approximately 7 km per second. Test results showed that substantial garment improvements could be made, with mild material enhancements and moderate assembly development. The spacesuit s PNP would improve marginally with the tested enhancements, if they were available for immediate incorporation. This paper discusses the results of the model assessment process and test program. These findings add confidence to the continued use of the existing NASA EMU during International Space Station (ISS) assembly and Shuttle Operations. They provide a viable avenue for improved hypervelocity impact protection for the EMU, or for future space suits.

Chase, Thomas D.↗

A Compendium of Wind Statistics and Models for the NASA Space Shuttle and Other Aerospace Vehicle Programs

The wind profile with all of its variations with respect to altitude has been, is now, and will continue to be important for aerospace vehicle design and operations. Wind profile databases and models are used for the vehicle ascent flight design for structural wind loading, flight control systems, performance analysis, and launch operations. This report presents the evolution of wind statistics and wind models from the empirical scalar wind profile model established for the Saturn Program through the development of the vector wind profile model used for the Space Shuttle design to the variations of this wind modeling concept for the X-33 program. Because wind is a vector quantity, the vector wind models use the rigorous mathematical probability properties of the multivariate normal probability distribution. When the vehicle ascent steering commands (ascent guidance) are wind biased to the wind profile measured on the day-of-launch, ascent structural wind loads are reduced and launch probability is increased. This wind load alleviation technique is recommended in the initial phase of vehicle development. The vehicle must fly through the largest load allowable versus altitude to achieve its mission. The Gumbel extreme value probability distribution is used to obtain the probability of exceeding (or not exceeding) the load allowable. The time conditional probability function is derived from the Gumbel bivariate extreme value distribution. This time conditional function is used for calculation of wind loads persistence increments using 3.5-hour Jimsphere wind pairs. These increments are used to protect the commit-to-launch decision. Other topics presented include the Shuttle Shuttle load-response to smoothed wind profiles, a new gust model, and advancements in wind profile measuring systems. From the lessons learned and knowledge gained from past vehicle programs, the development of future launch vehicles can be accelerated. However, new vehicle programs by their very nature will require specialized support for new databases and analyses for wind, atmospheric parameters (pressure, temperature, and density versus altitude), and weather. It is for this reason that project managers are encouraged to collaborate with natural environment specialists early in the conceptual design phase. Such action will give the lead time necessary to meet the natural environment design and operational requirements, and thus, reduce development costs.

Smith, O. E.↗

Going beyond reliability to achieve robustness

Reliability is the ability to perform well and consistently. More formally, reliability is defined as the mathematical probability that a system does not fail during a specified time period under its specified operating conditions. The specified operating conditions often go beyond the nominal environment to include variations and challenges encountered in operational use. The difficulty is that systems are often operated outside of their specified operating conditions and, if they fail, the designers are in theory blameless. Unanticipated damaging events include internal failures, external disruptions in supporting systems, accidents, and repurposing. The most common explanation of a system failure is human error, which is usually the first assumption of the system designers. Robustness is the capability to perform without failure under a wide range of conditions that go beyond the specified operating conditions. The first step towards improving robustness would be to expand the system’s specified operating conditions to include a wider range of anticipated challenges, especially human error. Beyond this, there is a need for general approach to reduce the impact of unanticipated future events, the unknown unknowns, by improving the system’s general ability to cope. Robustness can be improved by providing additional processing capacity, larger flow control buffers, increased backup storage, more online redundancy, and more capable supervisory monitoring and control.

Harry W Jones↗

Quantification of human responses

Human perception is a complex phenomenon which is difficult to quantify with instruments. For this reason, large panels of people are often used to elicit and aggregate subjective judgments. Print quality, taste, smell, sound quality of a stereo system, softness, and grading Olympic divers and skaters are some examples of situations where subjective measurements or judgments are paramount. We usually express what is in our mind through language as a medium but languages are limited in available choices of vocabularies, and as a result, our verbalizations are only approximate expressions of what we really have in mind. For lack of better methods to quantify subjective judgments, it is customary to set up a numerical scale such as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 1, 2, 3, ..., 9, 10 for characterizing human responses and subjective judgments with no valid justification except that these scales are easy to understand and convenient to use. But these numerical scales are arbitrary simplifications of the complex human mind; the human mind is not restricted to such simple numerical variations. In fact, human responses and subjective judgments are psychophysical phenomena that are fuzzy entities and therefore difficult to handle by conventional mathematics and probability theory. The fuzzy mathematical approach provides a more realistic insight into understanding and quantifying human responses. This paper presents a method for quantifying human responses and subjective judgments without assuming a pattern of linear or numerical variation for human responses. In particular, quantification and evaluation of linguistic judgments was investigated.

Steinlage, R. C.↗

Visualisation and outlier detection for probability density function ensembles

Abstract Exploratory data analysis (EDA) for functional data—data objects where observations are entire functions—is a difficult problem that has seen significant attention in recent literature. This surge in interest is motivated by the ubiquitous nature of functional data, which are prevalent in applications across fields such as meteorology, biology, medicine and engineering. Empirical probability density functions (PDFs) can be viewed as constrained functional data objects that must integrate to one and be nonnegative. They show up in contexts such as yearly income distributions, zooplankton size structure in oceanography and in connectivity patterns in the brain, among others. While PDF data are certainly common in modern research, little attention has been given to EDA specifically for PDFs. In this paper, we extend several methods for EDA on functional data for PDFs and compare them on simulated data that exhibit different types of variation, designed to mimic that seen in real‐world applications. We then use our new methods to perform EDA on the breakthrough curves observed in gas transport simulations for underground fracture networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Research Trends and Applications of PMUs

This work is a survey of current trends in applications of PMUs. PMUs have the potential to solve major problems in the areas of power system estimation, protection, and stability. A variety of methods are being used for these purposes, including statistical techniques, mathematical transformations, probability, and AI. The results produced by the techniques reviewed in this work are promising, but there is work to be performed in the context of implementation and standardization. As the smart grid initiative continues to advance, the number of intelligent devices monitoring the power grid continues to increase. PMUs are at the center of this initiative, and as a result, each year more PMUs are deployed across the grid. Since their introduction, myriad solutions based on PMU-technology have been suggested. The high sampling rates and synchronized measurements provided by PMUs are expected to drive significant advancements across multiple fields, such as the protection, estimation, and control of the power grid. This work offers a review of contemporary research trends and applications of PMU technology. Most solutions presented in this work were published in the last five years, and techniques showing potential for significant impact are highlighted in greater detail. Being a relatively new technology, there are several issues that must be addressed before PMU-based solutions can be successfully implemented. This survey found that key areas where improvements are needed include the establishment of PMU-observability, data processing algorithms, the handling of heterogeneous sampling rates, and the minimization of the investment in infrastructure for PMU communication. Solutions based on Bayesian estimation, as well as those having a distributed architectures, show great promise. The material presented in this document is tailored to both new researchers entering this field and experienced researchers wishing to become acquainted with emerging trends.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NiCd battery reliability for shuttle serviced spacecraft

Data from life-cycle testing of 22-cell NiCd batteries designed for shuttle-service spacecrafts are analyzed, first by averaging battery cycle lives as a function of temperature and depth of discharge, and then by calculating single cell failure and survival probabilities as a function of temperature, depth of discharge, and number of operating cycles. The single cell data are used to calculate battery survival probabilities. A mathematical failure model which is a function of the quantity of charge through the battery and the temperature is characterized, suggesting a predictive capability for accurate estimation of energy storage subsystem life and performance of accelerated tests. The failure mechanism described is apparently independent of most charge-discharge parameters and common to most cell sizes.

Eliason, J.↗

Incompatible Stochastic Processes and Complex Probabilities

The definition of conditional probabilities is based upon the existence of a joint probability. However, a reconstruction of the joint probability from given conditional probabilities imposes certain constraints upon the latter, so that if several conditional probabilities are chosen arbitrarily, the corresponding joint probability may not exist.

Probabilities Mathematics↗

Enabling More than Moore: Accelerated Reliability Testing and Risk Analysis for Advanced Electronics Packaging

For five decades, the semiconductor industry has distinguished itself by the rapid pace of improvement in miniaturization of electronics products-Moore's Law. Now, scaling hits a brick wall, a paradigm shift. The industry roadmaps recognized the scaling limitation and project that packaging technologies will meet further miniaturization needs or ak.a "More than Moore". This paper presents packaging technology trends and accelerated reliability testing methods currently being practiced. Then, it presents industry status on key advanced electronic packages, factors affecting accelerated solder joint reliability of area array packages, and IPC/JEDEC/Mil specifications for characterizations of assemblies under accelerated thermal and mechanical loading. Finally, it presents an examples demonstrating how Accelerated Testing and Analysis have been effectively employed in the development of complex spacecraft thereby reducing risk. Quantitative assessments necessarily involve the mathematics of probability and statistics. In addition, accelerated tests need to be designed which consider the desired risk posture and schedule for particular project. Such assessments relieve risks without imposing additional costs. and constraints that are not value added for a particular mission. Furthermore, in the course of development of complex systems, variances and defects will inevitably present themselves and require a decision concerning their disposition, necessitating quantitative assessments. In summary, this paper presents a comprehensive view point, from technology to systems, including the benefits and impact of accelerated testing in offsetting risk.

Ghaffarian, Reza↗

Case studies in bias reduction and inference for electronic health record data with selection bias and phenotype misclassification

Electronic health records (EHR) are not designed for population‐based research, but they provide easy and quick access to longitudinal health information for a large number of individuals. Many statistical methods have been proposed to account for selection bias, missing data, phenotyping errors, or other problems that arise in EHR data analysis. However, addressing multiple sources of bias simultaneously is challenging. We developed a methodological framework (R package, SAMBA ) for jointly handling both selection bias and phenotype misclassification in the EHR setting that leverages external data sources. These methods assume factors related to selection and misclassification are fully observed, but these factors may be poorly understood and partially observed in practice. As a follow‐up to the methodological work, we demonstrate how to apply these methods for two real‐world case studies, and we evaluate their performance. In both examples, we use individual patient‐level data collected through the University of Michigan Health System and various external population‐based data sources. In case study (a), we explore the impact of these methods on estimated associations between gender and cancer diagnosis. In case study (b), we compare corrected associations between previously identified genetic loci and age‐related macular degeneration with gold standard external summary estimates. These case studies illustrate how to utilize diverse auxiliary information to achieve less biased inference in EHR‐based research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Multivariate Analogs of Classical Univariate Discrete Distributions and Their Properties

Some discrete distributions such as Bernoulli, binomial, geometric, negative binomial, Poisson, Polya–Aeppli, and others play an important role in applied problems of probability theory and mathematical statistics. We propose a variant of a multivariate distribution whose components have a given univariate discrete distribution. In fact we consider some very general variant of the so-called reduction method. We find the explicit form of the mass function and generating function of such distribution and study their properties. We prove that our construction is unique in natural exponential families of distributions. Our results are the generalization and unification of many results of other authors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Contamination analysis and monitoring

"Sterilization" is a term applied to any process or procedure that produces a condition of sterility. Sterility is an absolute concept and refers to the destruction or removal of all life. However, when sterility as an absolute concept is applied to the sterilization of space hardware, it ceases to be operational. Absolute proof of sterility of flight hardware is impossible. Hence, for an operational approach to certification of sterility of space hardware, it is necessary to apply the probability concept. The present report is concerned with the applicability of mathematics to predict the probability of achieving sterility in a complex space hardware system. As such, this approach is concerned with the manipulation of microbiological data rather than mathematical rigor.

contamination↗

Analysis of coherent satellite communication systems in the presence of interference and noise

The general analysis presented can be used to evaluate the performance of M-ary phase shift keying (MPSK) used over a nonlinear satellite channel in the presence of interference (CW tone and ISI) and channel noise. The numerical evaluation is based on the classical moment technique for approximating the probability distribution from moments of a random variable. The mathematical formulation of error probabilities of MPSK signals transmitted over nonlinear satellite repeaters is presented to include the effect of CW tone interference as well as the intersymbol interference. The approach is general and can be extended to include the effect of the synchronization.

Huang, T.-C.↗

Trust-Enhancing Probabilistic Transfer Learning for Sparse and Noisy Data Environments

There is an increasing aspiration to utilize machine learning (ML) for various tasks of relevance to national security. ML models have thus far been mostly applied to tasks and domains that, while impactful, have sufficient volume of data. For predictive tasks of national security relevance, ML models of great capacity (ability to approximate nonlinear trends in input-output maps) are often needed to capture the complex underlying physics. However, scientific problems of relevance to national security are often accompanied by various sources of sparse and/or incomplete data, including experiments and simulations, across different regimes of operation, of varying degrees of fidelity, and include noise with different characteristics and/or intensity. State-of-the-art ML models, despite exhibiting superior performance on the task and domain they were trained on, may suffer detrimental loss in performance in such sparse data environments. This report summarizes the results of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development project entitled Trust-Enhancing Probabilistic Transfer Learning for Sparse and Noisy Data Environments. The objective of the project was to develop a new transfer learning (TL) framework that aims to adaptively blend the data across different sources in tackling one task of interest, resulting in enhanced trustworthiness of ML models for mission- and safety-critical systems. The proposed framework determines when it is worth applying TL and how much knowledge is to be transferred, despite uncontrollable uncertainties. The framework accomplishes this by leveraging concepts and techniques from the fields of Bayesian inverse modeling and uncertainty quantification, relying on strong mathematical foundations of probability and measure theories to devise new uncertainty-aware TL workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗