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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1976

Estimation of the probability of error without ground truth and known a priori probabilities

The probability of error or, alternatively, the probability of correct classification (PCC) is an important criterion in analyzing the performance of a classifier. Labeled samples (those with ground truth) are usually employed to evaluate the performance of a classifier. Occasionally, the numbers of labeled samples are inadequate, or no labeled samples are available to evaluate a classifier's performance; for example, when crop signatures from one area from which ground truth is available are used to classify another area from which no ground truth is available. This paper reports the results of an experiment to estimate the probability of error using unlabeled test samples (i.e., without the aid of ground truth).

Havens, K. A.↗
NASA NTRS1974

On differentiating the probability of error in multipopular feature selection

A method of linear feature selection for n dimensional observation vectors which belong to one of m populations is presented. Each population has a known apriori probability and is described by a known multivariate normal density function. Specifically we consider the problem of finding a k x n matrix B of rank k (k n) for which the transformed probability of misclassification is minimized. Providing that the transformed a posterior probabilities are distinct theoretical results are obtained which, for the case k = l, give rise to a numerically tractable formula for the derivative of the probability of misclassification. It is shown that for the two population problem this condition is also necessary. The dependence of the minimum probability of error on the a priori probabilities is investigated. The minimum probability of error satisfies a uniform Lipschitz condition with respect to the a priori probabilities.

Peters, B. C.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Error probability performance of unbalanced QPSK receivers

A simple technique for calculating the error probability performance and associated noisy reference loss of practical unbalanced QPSK receivers is presented. The approach is based on expanding the error probability conditioned on the loop phase error in a power series in the loop phase error and then, keeping only the first few terms of this series, averaging this conditional error probability over the probability density function of the loop phase error. Doing so results in an expression for the average error probability which is in the form of a leading term representing the ideal (perfect synchronization references) performance plus a term proportional to the mean-squared crosstalk. Thus, the additional error probability due to noisy synchronization references occurs as an additive term proportional to the mean-squared phase jitter directly associated with the receiver's tracking loop. Similar arguments are advanced to give closed-form results for the noisy reference loss itself.

Simon, M. K.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Sufficient Statistics for Divergence and the Probability of Misclassification

One particular aspect is considered of the feature selection problem which results from the transformation x=Bz, where B is a k by n matrix of rank k and k is or = to n. It is shown that in general, such a transformation results in a loss of information. In terms of the divergence, this is equivalent to the fact that the average divergence computed using the variable x is less than or equal to the average divergence computed using the variable z. A loss of information in terms of the probability of misclassification is shown to be equivalent to the fact that the probability of misclassification computed using variable x is greater than or equal to the probability of misclassification computed using variable z. First, the necessary facts relating k-dimensional and n-dimensional integrals are derived. Then the mentioned results about the divergence and probability of misclassification are derived. Finally it is shown that if no information is lost (in x = Bz) as measured by the divergence, then no information is lost as measured by the probability of misclassification.

Quirein, J.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Assessment of the probability of contaminating Mars

New methodology is proposed to assess the probability that the planet Mars will by biologically contaminated by terrestrial microorganisms aboard a spacecraft. Present NASA methods are based on the Sagan-Coleman formula, which states that the probability of contamination is the product of the expected microbial release and a probability of growth. The proposed new methodology extends the Sagan-Coleman approach to permit utilization of detailed information on microbial characteristics, the lethality of release and transport mechanisms, and of other information about the Martian environment. Three different types of microbial release are distinguished in the model for assessing the probability of contamination. The number of viable microbes released by each mechanism depends on the bio-burden in various locations on the spacecraft and on whether the spacecraft landing is accomplished according to plan. For each of the three release mechanisms a probability of growth is computed, using a model for transport into an environment suited to microbial growth.

Judd, B. R.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Estimating probabilities of cloud-free fields-of-view from the earth through the atmosphere

The paper is an extension of previous papers by Lund and Shanklin (1972, 1973). It presents probabilities of cloud-free fields-of-view (CFFOV) to supplement probabilities of cloud-free lines-of-sight (CFLOS) contained in the earlier papers. A model is developed for estimating the probability of obtaining a CFFOV as a function of ground-observer-reported total sky cover for earth-to-space applications. The development of the model and examples of its application are described. A comparison of CFFOV and CFLOS results is made. In conclusion, climatic probabilities of CFFOV overhead through the entire atmosphere between the surface of the earth and space can be estimated for any desired geographical location through the use of a specified equation and conditional probabilities contained in the paper, if the frequency distribution of total sky cover categories for the desired location is known.

Lund, I. A.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Probability of satellite collision

A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

Mccarter, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Guide star probabilities

Probabilities are calculated for acquiring suitable guide stars (GS) with the fine guidance system (FGS) of the space telescope. A number of the considerations and techniques described are also relevant for other space astronomy missions. The constraints of the FGS are reviewed. The available data on bright star densities are summarized and a previous error in the literature is corrected. Separate analytic and Monte Carlo calculations of the probabilities are described. A simulation of space telescope pointing is carried out using the Weistrop north galactic pole catalog of bright stars. Sufficient information is presented so that the probabilities of acquisition can be estimated as a function of position in the sky. The probability of acquiring suitable guide stars is greatly increased if the FGS can allow an appreciable difference between the (bright) primary GS limiting magnitude and the (fainter) secondary GS limiting magnitude.

Soneira, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1957

Statistical Study of Aircraft Icing Probabilities at the 700- and 500- Millibar Levels over Ocean Areas in the Northern Hemisphere

A statistical study is made of icing data reported from weather reconnaissance aircraft flown by Air Weather Service (USAF). The weather missions studied were flown at fixed flight levels of 500 millibars (18,000 ft) and 700 millibars (10,000 ft) over wide areas of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic Oceans. This report is presented as part of a program conducted by the NACA to obtain extensive icing statistics relevant to aircraft design and operation. The thousands of in-flight observations recorded over a 2- to 4-year period provide reliable statistics on icing encounters for the specific areas, altitudes, and seasons included in the data. The relative frequencies of icing occurrence are presented, together with the estimated icing probabilities and the relation of these probabilities to the frequencies of flight in clouds and cloud temperatures. The results show that aircraft operators can expect icing probabilities to vary widely throughout the year from near zero in the cold Arctic areas in winter up to 7 percent in areas where greater cloudiness and warmer temperatures prevail. The data also reveal a general tendency of colder cloud temperatures to reduce the probability of icing in equally cloudy conditions.

Perkins, Porter J.↗
NASA NTRS1973

On minimizing the probability of misclassification for linear feature selection

The use of techniques for feature selection permits treatment of classification problems in spaces of reduced dimensions. A method is considered of linear feature selection for n-dimensional observation vectors which belong to one of two populations, where each population is described by a known multivariate normal density function. More specifically, the problem of finding a 1xn transformation matrix B for which the probability of misclassification with respect to the one-dimensional transformed density functions was minimized was considered. Theoretical results are presented which give rise to a numerically tractable expression for the variation in the probability of misclassification with respect to B. Using this expression a computational procedure is discussed for obtaining a B which minimizes the probability of misclassification. Preliminary numerical results are discussed.

Guseman, L. F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1973

On the error probability of general tree and trellis codes with applications to sequential decoding

An upper bound on the average error probability for maximum-likelihood decoding of the ensemble of random binary tree codes is derived and shown to be independent of the length of the tree. An upper bound on the average error probability for maximum-likelihood decoding of the ensemble of random L-branch binary trellis codes of rate R = 1/n is derived which separates the effects of the tail length T and the memory length M of the code. It is shown that the bound is independent of the length L of the information sequence. This implication is investigated by computer simulations of sequential decoding utilizing the stack algorithm. These simulations confirm the implication and further suggest an empirical formula for the true undetected decoding error probability with sequential decoding.

Johannesson, R.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Vertex evoked potentials in a rating-scale detection task: Relation to signal probability

Vertex evoked potentials were recorded from human subjects performing in an auditory detection task with rating scale responses. Three values of a priori probability of signal presentation were tested. The amplitudes of the N1 and P3 components of the vertex potential associated with correct detections of the signal were found to be systematically related to the strictness of the response criterion and independent of variations in a priori signal probability. No similar evoked potential components were found associated with signal absent judgements (misses and correct rejections) regardless of the confidence level of the judgement or signal probability. These results strongly support the contention that the form of the vertex evoked response is closely correlated with the subject's psychophysical decision regarding the presence or absence of a threshold level signal.

Squires, K. C.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Sticking probabilities for the adsorption of hydrogen on clean Ni/111/, Ni/100/, Ni sheet and evaporated Ni films

Determination of the sticking probability for hydrogen adsorption on clean Ni(111), Ni(100), polycrystalline nickel sheet, and polycrystalline evaporated nickel films, using a modification of the reflection detector technique of Horgan and King (1970) for metal films. The initial sticking probability for hydrogen adsorption on a nickel film at 300 K by the proposed method is found to be 0.25 in comparison to 0.35 for hydrogen adsorption on a nickel film using the reflection detector technique. Also, the sticking probabilities on smooth single-crystal (111) and (100) planes and polycrystalline sheets are found to be lower than those on the rougher polycrystalline nickel films.

Horgan, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS1974

New methodology for assessing the probability of contaminating Mars

Methodology is proposed to assess the probability that the planet Mars will be contaminated by terrestrial microorganisms aboard a spacecraft. The present NASA methods are extended to permit utilization of detailed information on microbial characteristics, the lethality of release and transport mechanisms, and of other information about the Martian environment. Different types of microbial release are distinguished, and for each release mechanism a probability of growth is computed. Using this new methodology, an assessment was carried out for the 1975 Viking landings on Mars. The resulting probability of contamination for each Viking lander is 6 x 10 to the -6 power, and is amenable to revision as additional information becomes available.

North, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Forbidden transition probabilities for ground terms of ions with p or p5 configurations

Forbidden transition probabilities are given for ground term transitions of ions in the isoelectronic sequences with outer configurations 2s2 2p (B I), 2p5 (F I), 3s2 3p (Al I), and 3p5 (Cl I). Tables give, for each ion, the ground term interval, the associated wavelength, the quadrupole radial integral, the electric quadrupole transition probability, and the magnetic dipole transition probability. Coronal lines due to some of these ions have been observed, while others are yet to be observed. The tales for the Al I and Cl I sequences include elements up to germanium.

Kastner, S. O.↗