Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Profile likelihood”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the top quark mass using a profile likelihood approach with the lepton + jets final states in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13\,\text {Te}\hspace{-.08em}\text {V}$

The mass of the top quark is measured in 36.3 fb -1 of LHC proton–proton collision data collected with the CMS detector at $\sqrt{s}=13\,\text {Te}\hspace{-.08em}\text {V}$. The measurement uses a sample of top quark pair candidate events containing one isolated electron or muon and at least four jets in the final state. For each event, the mass is reconstructed from a kinematic fit of the decay products to a top quark pair hypothesis. A profile likelihood method is applied using up to four observables per event to extract the top quark mass. The top quark mass is measured to be 171.77 ± 0.37 GeV. This approach significantly improves the precision over previous measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

FlameNEST: explicit profile likelihoods with the Noble Element Simulation Technique

We present FlameNEST, a framework providing explicit likelihood evaluations in noble element particle detectors using data-driven models from the Noble Element Simulation Technique. FlameNEST provides a way to perform statistical analyses on real data with no dependence on large, computationally expensive Monte Carlo simulations by evaluating the likelihood on an event-by-event basis using analytic probability elements convolved together in a single TensorFlow multiplication. Furthermore, this robust framework creates opportunities for simple inter-collaboration analyses which will be fundamental for the future of experimental dark matter physics.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS2005

Program for Weibull Analysis of Fatigue Data

A Fortran computer program has been written for performing statistical analyses of fatigue-test data that are assumed to be adequately represented by a two-parameter Weibull distribution. This program calculates the following: (1) Maximum-likelihood estimates of the Weibull distribution; (2) Data for contour plots of relative likelihood for two parameters; (3) Data for contour plots of joint confidence regions; (4) Data for the profile likelihood of the Weibull-distribution parameters; (5) Data for the profile likelihood of any percentile of the distribution; and (6) Likelihood-based confidence intervals for parameters and/or percentiles of the distribution. The program can account for tests that are suspended without failure (the statistical term for such suspension of tests is "censoring"). The analytical approach followed in this program for the software is valid for type-I censoring, which is the removal of unfailed units at pre-specified times. Confidence regions and intervals are calculated by use of the likelihood-ratio method.

Krantz, Timothy L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Primer on Dose-Response Data Modeling in Radiation Therapy

An overview of common approaches used to assess a dose response for radiation therapy–associated endpoints is presented, using lung toxicity data sets analyzed as a part of the High Dose per Fraction, Hypofractionated Treatment Effects in the Clinic effort as an example. Each component presented (eg, data-driven analysis, dose-response analysis, and calculating uncertainties on model prediction) is addressed using established approaches. Specifically, the maximum likelihood method was used to calculate best parameter values of the commonly used logistic model, the profile-likelihood to calculate confidence intervals on model parameters, and the likelihood ratio to determine whether the observed data fit is statistically significant. The bootstrap method was used to calculate confidence intervals for model predictions. Correlated behavior of model parameters and implication for interpreting dose response are discussed.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cosmological neutrino mass: a frequentist overview in light of DESI

We derive constraints on the neutrino mass using a variety of recent cosmological datasets, including DESI BAO, the full-shape analysis of the DESI matter power spectrum and the one-dimensional power spectrum of the Lyman-α forest (P1D) from eBOSS quasars as well as the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The constraints are obtained in the frequentist formalism by constructing profile likelihoods and applying the Feldman-Cousins prescription to compute confidence intervals. This method avoids potential prior and volume effects that may arise in a comparable Bayesian analysis. Parabolic fits to the profiles allow one to distinguish changes in the upper limits from variations in the constraining power σ of the different data combinations. We find that all profiles in the ΛCDM model are cut off by the ∑m ν ≥ 0 bound, meaning that the corresponding parabolas reach their minimum in the unphysical sector. The most stringent 95% C.L. upper limit is obtained by the combination of DESI DR2 BAO, Planck PR4 and CMB lensing at 53 meV, below the minimum of 59 meV set by the normal ordering. The corresponding constraining power σ is 43 meV, which highlights the importance of the cut-off by negative values in the determination of the upper limit. Extending ΛCDM to non-zero curvature and w 0 w a CDM relaxes the constraints past 59 meV again, but only w 0 w a CDM exhibits profiles with a minimum at a positive value. Additionally, we extend the formalism to constrain the lightest neutrino mass. For DESI DR2 BAO, Planck PR4 and CMB lensing, we find confidence limits at 20 and 19 meV for normal and inverted ordering, respectively. Using a combination of DESI DR1 full-shape, BBN and eBOSS Lyman-α P1D, we successfully constrain the neutrino mass independently of the CMB. This combination yields m l ≤ 97 and 98 meV in the normal and inverted orderings, and total neutrino mass ∑m ν ≤ 285 meV (95% C.L.). The addition of DESI full-shape or Lyman-α P1D to CMB and DESI BAO results in small but noticeable improvement of the constraining power of the data. Lyman-α free-streaming measurements especially improve the constraint. Since they are based on eBOSS data, this sets a promising precedent for upcoming DESI data.

Frequentist statistics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observational constraints on early dark energy

In this paper, we review and update constraints on the Early Dark Energy (EDE) model from cosmological data sets, in particular Planck PR3 and PR4 cosmic microwave background (CMB) data and large-scale structure (LSS) data sets including galaxy clustering and weak lensing data from the Dark Energy Survey, Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam and KiDS+VIKING-450, as well as BOSS/eBOSS galaxy clustering and Lyman-[Formula: see text] forest data. We detail the fit to CMB data, and perform the first analyses of EDE using the CAMSPEC and Hillipop likelihoods for Planck CMB data, rather than Plik, both of which yield a tighter upper bound on the allowed EDE fraction than that found with Plik. We then supplement CMB data with LSS data in a series of new analyses. All these analyses are concordant in their Bayesian preference for [Formula: see text]CDM over EDE, as indicated by marginalized posterior distributions. We perform a series of tests of the impact of priors in these results, and compare with frequentist analyses based on the profile likelihood, finding qualitative agreement with the Bayesian results. All these tests suggest prior volume effects are not a determining factor in analyses of EDE. This work provides both a review of existing constraints and several new analyses.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurements of inclusive and differential cross sections for top quark production in association with a Z boson in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

Measurements are presented of inclusive and differential cross sections for Z boson associated production of top quark pairs ($ \textrm{t}\overline{\textrm{t}}\textrm{Z} $) and single top quarks (tZq or tWZ). The data were recorded in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{−1}$. Events with three or more leptons, electrons or muons, are selected and a multiclass deep neural network is used to separate three event categories, the $ \textrm{t}\overline{\textrm{t}}\textrm{Z} $ and tWZ processes, the tZq process, and the backgrounds. A profile likelihood approach is used to unfold the differential cross sections, to account for systematic uncertainties, and to determine the correlations between the two signal categories in one global fit. The inclusive cross sections for a dilepton invariant mass between 70 and 110 GeV are measured to be 1.14 ± 0.07 pb for the sum of $ \textrm{t}\overline{\textrm{t}}\textrm{Z} $ and tWZ, and 0.81 ± 0.10 pb for tZq, in good agreement with theoretical predictions.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the top-quark mass using a leptonic invariant mass in $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of the top-quark mass ($m_t$) in the $t\overline{t}$ → lepton+jets channel is presented, with an experimental technique which exploits semileptonic decays of $b$-hadrons produced in the top-quark decay chain. The distribution of the invariant mass $m_{{\ell}µ}$ of the lepton, $\ell$ (with $\ell$ = $e, µ$), from the $W$-boson decay and the muon, $µ$, originating from the b-hadron decay is reconstructed, and a binned-template profile likelihood fit is performed to extract $m_t$. The measurement is based on data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb –1 of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV $pp$ collisions provided by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded by the ATLAS detector. The measured value of the top-quark mass is $m_t$ = 174.41 ± 0.39 (stat.) ± 0.66 (syst.) ± 0.25 (recoil) GeV, where the third uncertainty arises from changing the Pythia8 parton shower gluon-recoil scheme, used in top-quark decays, to a recently developed setup.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for leptonic charge asymmetry in $t\overline{t}W$ production in final states with three leptons at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A search for the leptonic charge asymmetry (${A}_{c}^{\ell}$) of top-quark-antiquark pair production in association with a $W$ boson ($t\overline{t}W$) is presented. The search is performed using final states with exactly three charged light leptons (electrons or muons) and is based on $\sqrt{s}$= 13 TeV proton-proton collision data collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN during the years 2015–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb –1 . A profile-likelihood fit to the event yields in multiple regions corresponding to positive and negative differences between the pseudorapidities of the charged leptons from top-quark and top-antiquark decays is used to extract the charge asymmetry. At reconstruction level, the asymmetry is found to be –0.12 ± 0.14 (stat.) ± 0.05 (syst.). An unfolding procedure is applied to convert the result at reconstruction level into a charge-asymmetry value in a fiducial volume at particle level with the result of –0.11 ± 0.17 (stat.) ± 0.05 (syst.). The Standard Model expectations for these two observables are calculated using Monte Carlo simulations with next-to-leading-order plus parton shower precision in quantum chromodynamics and including next-to-leading-order electroweak corrections. They are ${–0.084}_{–0.003}^{+0.005}$ (scale) ± 0.006 (MC stat.) and ${–0.063}_{–0.004}^{+0.007}$ (scale) ± 0.004 (MC stat.) respectively, and in agreement with the measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parameter inference from event ensembles and the top-quark mass

One of the key tasks of any particle collider is measurement. In practice, this is often done by fitting data to a simulation, which depends on many parameters. Sometimes, when the effects of varying different parameters are highly correlated, a large ensemble of data may be needed to resolve parameter-space degeneracies. An important example is measuring the top-quark mass, where other physical and unphysical parameters in the simulation must be profiled when fitting the top-quark mass parameter. We compare four different methodologies for top-quark mass measurement: a classical histogram fit similar to one commonly used in experiment augmented by soft-drop jet grooming; a 2D profile likelihood fit with a nuisance parameter; a machine-learning method called DCTR; and a linear regression approach, either using a least-squares fit or with a dense linearly-activated neural network. Despite the fact that individual events are totally uncorrelated, we find that the linear regression methods work most effectively when we input an ensemble of events sorted by mass, rather than training them on individual events. Although all methods provide robust extraction of the top-quark mass parameter, the linear network does marginally best and is remarkably simple. For the top study, we conclude that the Monte-Carlo-based uncertainty on current extractions of the top-quark mass from LHC data can be reduced significantly (by perhaps a factor of 2) using networks trained on sorted event ensembles. More generally, machine learning from ensembles for parameter estimation has broad potential for collider physics measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the charge asymmetry in top-quark pair production in association with a photon with the ATLAS experiment

A measurement of the charge asymmetry in top-quark pair ($t\bar{t}$) production in association with a photon is presented. The measurement is performed in the single-lepton $t\bar{t}$ decay channel using proton–proton collision data collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN at a centre-of-mass-energy of 13 TeV during the years 2015–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb –1 . The charge asymmetry is obtained from the distribution of the difference of the absolute rapidities of the top quark and antiquark using a profile likelihood unfolding approach. It is measured to be A C =–0.003 ± 0.029 in agreement with the Standard Model expectation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for Higgs boson decays into a Z boson and a light hadronically decaying resonance in pp collisions at s =13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for decays of the Higgs boson into a Z boson and a light resonance, with a mass of 0.5–3.5 GeV, is performed using the full 140 fb−1 dataset of 13 TeV proton–proton collisions recorded by the ATLAS detector during LHC Run 2. Leptonic decays of the Z boson and hadronic decays of the light resonance are considered. The resonance can be interpreted as a J / ψ or η c meson, an axion-like particle, or a light pseudoscalar predicted in two-Higgs-doublet models. Due to its low mass, this resonance is produced with a high Lorentz boost in the laboratory frame and therefore reconstructed as a single small-radius jet of hadrons. A neural network is used to correct the Monte Carlo simulation of the total expected background using data from sideband regions. Two additional neural networks are used to distinguish signal from background, enhancing the purity of the signal region. A binned profile-likelihood fit is performed on the final-state invariant mass distribution. No significant excess of events relative to the expected background is observed, and upper limits at 95% confidence level are set on the Higgs boson's branching fraction to a Z boson and a light resonance. The exclusion limit is ∼10% for the lower masses, and increases for higher masses. Upper limits on the effective coupling C Z H eff / Λ of an axion-like particle to a Higgs boson and Z boson are also set at 95% confidence level, and range from 0.9 to 2 TeV−1.

Aad, G↗
DOE OSTI2026

Observation of a cross-section enhancement near the production threshold in $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of $t\bar{t}$ production is presented in the invariant-mass region near the pair production threshold, $m_{t\bar{t}} \sim 345$ GeV, in final states with two charged leptons and multiple jets. The measurement is based on $140\,\mathrm{fb}^{-1}$ of proton–proton collision data collected at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The data are compared to two models of $t\bar{t}$ production: a baseline model including only perturbative quantum chromodynamics (pQCD) predictions for the hard process at approximate next-to-next-to leading order accuracy in the strong coupling, and an extended model that, in addition, incorporates non-relativistic QCD simulations that also include the formation of colour-singlet quasi-bound-states near the $t\bar{t}$ threshold. The agreement between the data and the models is quantified via a profile-likelihood fit to the reconstructed $m_{t\bar{t}}$ distributions, in bins of two angular observables sensitive to spin-correlations in the $t\bar{t}$ system. An excess of events is observed over the baseline pQCD prediction, with an observed significance over 8 standard deviations. This excess is consistent with the formation of colour-singlet and spin-singlet S-wave quasi-bound $t\bar{t}$ states, as predicted by non-relativistic QCD, and corresponds to an observed cross-section of $9.3^{+1.4}_{-1.3}$ pb.

Large Hadron Collider↗
DOE OSTI2026

Frequentist cosmological constraints from full-shape clustering measurements in DESI DR1

We present a frequentist analysis of clustering measurements from Data Release 1 of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) using the standard profile likelihood method. While Bayesian inferences for effective field theory models of galaxy clustering can be highly sensitive to prior choices for extended cosmological models, frequentist inferences are not susceptible to such effects. We compare frequentist and Bayesian constraints for the parameter set {σ 8 , H 0 , Ω m , w 0 , w a } using the full-shape power spectrum multipoles, post-reconstruction baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements, and external datasets from the CMB and type Ia supernovae measurements. The frequentist confidence intervals are significantly shifted relative to the Bayesian credible intervals for the w 0 w a CDM model, unless supernovae data are included. When DESI full-shape and BAO data are fit jointly, we obtain the following 1σ frequentist confidence intervals for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM): σ 8 = 0.863 +0.048 -0.040 , H 0 = 68.96 +0.81 -0.80 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.3034 ± 0.0110 (σ 8 = 0.782 +0.060 -0.036 , H 0 = 63.7 +4.2 -2.0 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.378 +0.024 -0.047 , w 0 = -0.16 +0.10 -0.50 , w a = -3.0 +1.7 ), corresponding to 0.8σ, 0.3σ, 0.7σ (2.1σ, 4.1σ, 6.5σ, 6.3σ, 6.6σ) shifts between the maximum likelihood estimate and the Bayesian posterior mean for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM) respectively.

Bayesian reasoning↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigating the XENON1T low-energy electronic recoil excess using NEST

The search for dark matter, the missing mass of the Universe, is one of the most active fields of study within particle physics. The XENON1T experiment recently observed a 3.5⁢𝜎 excess potentially consistent with dark matter, or with solar axions. Here, we will use the Noble Element Simulation Technique (NEST) software to simulate the XENON1T detector, reproducing the excess. We utilize different detector efficiency and energy reconstruction models, but they primarily impact sub-keV energies and cannot explain the XENON1T excess. However, using NEST, we can reproduce their excess in multiple, unique ways, most easily via the addition of 31 ± 11 37 Ar decays. Furthermore, this results in new, modified background models, reducing the significance of the excess to ≤2.2⁢𝜎 at least using non-Profile Likelihood Ratio (PLR) methods. This is independent confirmation that the excess is a real effect, but potentially explicable by known physics. Many cross-checks of our 37 Ar hypothesis are presented.

particle dark matter↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constraints on effective field theory couplings using 311.2 days of LUX data

We report here the results of an Effective Field Theory (EFT) WIMP search analysis using LUX data. We build upon previous LUX analyses by extending the search window to include nuclear recoil energies up to $\sim$180 keV$_{nr}$, requiring a reassessment of data quality cuts and background models. In order to use a binned Profile Likelihood statistical framework, the development of new analysis techniques to account for higher-energy backgrounds was required. With a 3.14$\times10^4$ kg$\cdot$day exposure using data collected between 2014 and 2016, we set 90\% C.L. exclusion limits on non-relativistic EFT WIMP couplings to neutrons and protons, providing the most stringent constraints on a significant fraction of the possible EFT WIMP interactions. Additionally, we report world-leading exclusion limits on inelastic EFT WIMP-nucleon recoils.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projected sensitivities of the LUX-ZEPLIN experiment to new physics via low-energy electron recoils

LUX-ZEPLIN is a dark matter detector expected to obtain world-leading sensitivity to weakly-interacting massive particles interacting via nuclear recoils with a ∼7-tonne xenon target mass. This paper presents sensitivity projections to several low-energy signals of the complementary electron recoil signal type: 1) an effective neutrino magnetic moment, and 2) an effective neutrino millicharge, both for 𝑝⁢𝑝-chain solar neutrinos, 3) an axion flux generated by the Sun, 4) axionlike particles forming the Galactic dark matter, 5) hidden photons, 6) mirror dark matter, and 7) leptophilic dark matter. World-leading sensitivities are expected in each case, a result of the large 5.6 t 1000 d exposure and low expected rate of electron-recoil backgrounds in the <100 keV energy regime. A consistent signal generation, background model and profile-likelihood analysis framework is used throughout.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast and flexible analysis of direct dark matter search data with machine learning

We present the results from combining machine learning with the profile likelihood fit procedure, using data from the Large Underground Xenon (LUX) dark matter experiment. This approach demonstrates reduction in computation time by a factor of 30 when compared with the previous approach, without loss of performance on real data. We establish its flexibility to capture non-linear correlations between variables (such as smearing in light and charge signals due to position variation) by achieving equal performance using pulse areas with and without position-corrections applied. Its efficiency and scalability furthermore enables searching for dark matter using additional variables without significant computational burden. We demonstrate this by including a light signal pulse shape variable alongside more traditional inputs such as light and charge signal strengths. Furthermore, this technique can be exploited by future dark matter experiments to make use of additional information, reduce computational resources needed for signal searches and simulations, and make inclusion of physical nuisance parameters in fits tractable.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗