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Bayesian projection pursuit regression

In projection pursuit regression (PPR), a univariate response variable is approximated by the sum of $M$ “ridge functions,” which are flexible functions of one-dimensional projections of a multivariate input variable. Traditionally, optimization routines are used to choose the projection directions and ridge functions via a sequential algorithm, and $M$ is typically chosen via cross-validation. Here, we introduce a novel Bayesian version of PPR, which has the benefit of accurate uncertainty quantification. To infer appropriate projection directions and ridge functions, we apply novel adaptations of methods used for the single ridge function case ($M$=1), called the Bayesian Single Index Model; and use a Reversible Jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to infer the number of ridge functions $M$. We evaluate the predictive ability of our model in 20 simulated scenarios and for 23 real datasets, in a bake-off against an array of state-of-the-art regression methods. Finally, we generalize this methodology and demonstrate the ability to accurately model multivariate response variables. Its effective performance indicates that Bayesian Projection Pursuit Regression is a valuable addition to the existing regression toolbox.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Search for subgrid scale parameterization by projection pursuit regression

The dependence of subgrid-scale stresses on variables of the resolved field is studied using direct numerical simulations of isotropic turbulence, homogeneous shear flow, and channel flow. The projection pursuit algorithm, a promising new regression tool for high-dimensional data, is used to systematically search through a large collection of resolved variables, such as components of the strain rate, vorticity, velocity gradients at neighboring grid points, etc. For the case of isotropic turbulence, the search algorithm recovers the linear dependence on the rate of strain (which is necessary to transfer energy to subgrid scales) but is unable to determine any other more complex relationship. For shear flows, however, new systematic relations beyond eddy viscosity are found. For the homogeneous shear flow, the results suggest that products of the mean rotation rate tensor with both the fluctuating strain rate and fluctuating rotation rate tensors are important quantities in parameterizing the subgrid-scale stresses. A model incorporating these terms is proposed. When evaluated with direct numerical simulation data, this model significantly increases the correlation between the modeled and exact stresses, as compared with the Smagorinsky model. In the case of channel flow, the stresses are found to correlate with products of the fluctuating strain and rotation rate tensors. The mean rates of rotation or strain do not appear to be important in this case, and the model determined for homogeneous shear flow does not perform well when tested with channel flow data. Many questions remain about the physical mechanisms underlying these findings, about possible Reynolds number dependence, and, given the low level of correlations, about their impact on modeling. Nevertheless, demonstration of the existence of causal relations between sgs stresses and large-scale characteristics of turbulent shear flows, in addition to those necessary for energy transfer, provides important insight into the relation between scales in turbulent flows.

Meneveau, C.↗

Projection pursuit adaptation on polynomial chaos expansions

Here, the present work addresses the issue of accurate stochastic approximations in high-dimensional parametric space using tools from uncertainty quantification (UQ). The basis adaptation method and its accelerated algorithm in polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) were recently proposed to construct low-dimensional approximations adapted to specific quantities of interest (QoI). The present paper addresses one difficulty with these adaptations, namely their reliance on quadrature point sampling, which limits the reusability of potentially expensive samples. Projection pursuit (PP) is a statistical tool to find the “interesting” projections in high-dimensional data and thus bypass the curse-of-dimensionality. In the present work, we combine the fundamental ideas of basis adaptation and projection pursuit regression (PPR) to propose a novel method to simultaneously learn the optimal low-dimensional spaces and PCE representation from given data. While this projection pursuit adaptation (PPA) can be entirely data-driven, the constructed approximation exhibits mean-square convergence to the solution of an underlying governing equation and thus captures the supports and probability distributions associated with the physics constraints. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a borehole problem and a structural dynamics problem, demonstrating the versatility of the method and its ability to discover low-dimensional manifolds with high accuracy with limited data. In addition, the method can learn surrogate models for different quantities of interest while reusing the same data set.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Reinterpreting fundamental plane correlations with machine learning

ABSTRACT This work explores the relationships between galaxy sizes and related observable galaxy properties in a large volume cosmological hydrodynamical simulation. The objectives of this work are to develop a better understanding of both the correlations between galaxy properties and the influence of environment on galaxy physics in order to build an improved model for the galaxy sizes, building off of the fundamental plane. With an accurate intrinsic galaxy size predictor, the residuals in the observed galaxy sizes can potentially be used for multiple cosmological applications, including making measurements of galaxy velocities in spectroscopic samples, estimating the rate of cosmic expansion, and constraining the uncertainties in the photometric redshifts of galaxies. Using projection pursuit regression, the model accurately predicts intrinsic galaxy sizes and have residuals which have limited correlation with galaxy properties. The model decreases the spatial correlation of galaxy size residuals by a factor of ∼5 at small scales compared to the baseline correlation when the mean size is used as a predictor.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

BayesPPR

SAND2026-17002O BayesPPR performs Bayesian Projection Pursuit Regression (PPR) using MATLAB. A surrogate model for calibration applications, it enables users to efficiently analyze complex datasets and extract meaningful patterns through regression techniques. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Tucker, J. Derek [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), L↗

Group Projected subspace pursuit for IDENTification of variable coefficient differential equations (GP-IDENT)

We propose an effective and robust algorithm for identifying partial differential equations (PDEs) with space-time varying coefficients from the noisy observation of a single solution trajectory. Identifying unknown differential equations from noisy data is a difficult task, and it is even more challenging with space and time varying coefficients in the PDE. The proposed algorithm, GP-IDENT, has three ingredients: (i) we use B-spline bases to express the unknown space and time varying coefficients, (ii) we propose Group Projected Subspace Pursuit (GPSP) to find a sequence of candidate PDEs with various levels of complexity, and (iii) we propose a new criterion for model selection using the Reduction in Residual (RR) to choose an optimal one among a pool of candidates. The new GPSP considers group projected subspaces which is more robust than existing methods in distinguishing correlated group features. We test GP-IDENT on a variety of PDEs and PDE systems, and compare it with the state-of-the-art parametric PDE identification algorithms under different settings to illustrate its outstanding performance. Furthermore, our experiments show that GP-IDENT is effective in identifying the correct terms from a large dictionary, and our model selection scheme is robust to noise.

Data-driven method↗