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DOE OSTI2025

Trusted Simulation: Considering Model Quality in the Context of User Trust

A high‐quality simulation model should help its users to easily and appropriately calibrate their trust in the model. Traditional evaluation metrics such as validation and robustness are necessary but insufficient for this task. Trust calibration depends on factors like the model's transparency, applicability to intended use, usability, reputation, and consideration of potential bias. This article proposes a framework for designing and evaluating system dynamics models by considering factors that contribute to the proper calibration of user trust. This framework takes inspiration from trusted artificial intelligence, broadening our traditional concept of model quality and explicitly focusing on what users need to consider a model trustworthy and to understand the model's relevance to its intended purpose. The trusted simulation framework can improve our integration of model quality activities throughout the modeling process, leading to more impactful and better‐targeted model design, development, and evaluation.

Naugle, Asmeret Bier [Sandia National Laboratories↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Generalized approach to the operationalization of Software Quality Models

Comprehensive measures of quality are a research imperative, yet the development of software quality models is a wicked problem. Definitive solutions do not exist and quality is subjective at its most abstract. Definitional measures of quality are contingent on a domain, and even within a domain, the choice of representative characteristics to decompose quality is subjective. Thus, the operationalization of quality models brings even more challenges. A promising approach to quality modeling is the use of hierarchies to represent characteristics, where lower levels of the hierarchy represent concepts closer to real-world observations. Building upon prior hierarchical modeling approaches, we developed the Platform for Investigative software Quality Understanding and Evaluation (PIQUE). PIQUE surmounts several quality modeling challenges because it allows modelers to instantiate abstract hierarchical models in any domain by leveraging organizational tools tailored to their specific contexts. Here, we introduce PIQUE; exemplify its utility with two practical use cases; address challenges associated with parameterizing a PIQUE model; and describe algorithmic techniques that tackle normalization, aggregation, and interpolation of measurements.

Data aggregation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model Quality and Measurement Density Impact on Volt/Volt Ampere Reactive Optimization Performance

The operation of the utility grid is being reshaped by the continuous addition of distributed energy resources and advanced metering infrastructure, which challenge existing grid control strategies. Some utilities deploy advanced distribution management systems (ADMS) to assist with the consolidation of various applications and to augment situational awareness in response to the new power delivery dynamics. An ADMS is an integrated software platform that provides utilities with a way to enhance their reliability, control, and optimization with advanced applications, such as volt/VAR optimization (VVO). A VVO application could serve as a vehicle to deliver cost savings by providing the utility with a method to reduce rates by controlling the voltage and decreasing the energy usage in their service territory. Some utilities are reluctant to integrate an ADMS, because it is a significant investment that requires approval from the public regulatory commission and/or their customers. This paper evaluates the impact on VVO performance when using a lower-quality network model supplemented with additional measurements, which could provide an implementation for cost savings. The results show that a better model quality would provide the highest energy savings; however, some level of telemetry is necessary in all scenarios to prevent voltage exceedances.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Technical note: AQMEII4 Activity 1: evaluation of wet and dry deposition schemes as an integral part of regional-scale air quality models

We present in this technical note the research protocol for phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4). This research initiative is divided into two activities, collectively having three goals: (i) to define the current state of the science with respect to representations of wet and especially dry deposition in regional models, (ii) to quantify the extent to which different dry deposition parameterizations influence retrospective air pollutant concentration and flux predictions, and (iii) to identify, through the use of a common set of detailed diagnostics, sensitivity simulations, model evaluation, and reduction of input uncertainty, the specific causes for the current range of these predictions. Activity 1 is dedicated to the diagnostic evaluation of wet and dry deposition processes in regional air quality models (described in this paper), and Activity 2 to the evaluation of dry deposition point models against ozone flux measurements at multiple towers with multiyear observations (to be described in future submissions as part of the special issue on AQMEII4). The scope of this paper is to present the scientific protocols for Activity 1, as well as to summarize the technical information associated with the different dry deposition approaches used by the participating research groups of AQMEII4. In addition to describing all common aspects and data used for this multi-model evaluation activity, most importantly, we present the strategy devised to allow a common process-level comparison of dry deposition obtained from models using sometimes very different dry deposition schemes. The strategy is based on adding detailed diagnostics to the algorithms used in the dry deposition modules of existing regional air quality models, in particular archiving diagnostics specific to land use–land cover (LULC) and creating standardized LULC categories to facilitate cross-comparison of LULC-specific dry deposition parameters and processes, as well as archiving effective conductance and effective flux as means for comparing the relative influence of different pathways towards the net or total dry deposition. This new approach, along with an analysis of precipitation and wet deposition fields, will provide an unprecedented process-oriented comparison of deposition in regional air quality models. Examples of how specific dry deposition schemes used in participating models have been reduced to the common set of comparable diagnostics defined for AQMEII4 are also presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using an Advanced Distribution Management System Test Bed to Evaluate the Impact of Model Quality on Volt/VAR Optimization: Preprint

In this paper, we present a test bed for evaluating existing and future advanced distribution management system (ADMS) applications in a realistic laboratory setting, including other utility management systems and field equipment. We present an example of using it to evaluate the impact of the ADMS network model quality on a Volt/VAR optimization (VVO) application. The test bed integrates a commercial ADMS with a real-time simulation model of a utility distribution feeder. Representative power and controller hardware are integrated through hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) techniques. The performance of the ADMS VVO application is also evaluated for different levels of measurement density. Initial results indicate that a higher model quality achieves the highest possible energy savings while avoiding voltage violations, whereas a lower model quality results in increased energy savings but at the expense of more voltage violations.

ADMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A coupled hydrodynamic (HEC-RAS 2D) and water quality model (WASP) for simulating flood-induced soil, sediment, and contaminant transport

Increased intensity and frequency of floods raise concerns about the release and transport of contaminated soil and sediment to and from rivers and streams. To model these processes during flooding events, we developed an External Coupler in Python to link the Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) 2D hydrodynamic model to the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP). Accurate data transfer from a hydrodynamic model to a water quality model is critical. Our test results showed the External Coupler successfully linked HEC-RAS and WASP and addressed technical challenges in aggregating flow data and conserving mass during the flood event. We ran the coupled models for a 100-year flood event to calculate flood-induced transport of sediment-associated arsenic in Woodbridge Creek, NJ. Change in surface sediment and arsenic at the end of 48-h flood simulation ranged from a net loss of 13.5 cm to a net gain of 11.6 cm, and 16.2 to 2.9 mg/kg, respectively, per model segment, which demonstrates the capability of the coupled model for simulating sediment and contaminant transport in flood.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A GPU-based 2D shallow water quality model

In this paper, a 2D shallow water flow solver integrated with a water quality model is presented. The interaction between the main water quality constituents included is based on the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program. Efficiency is achieved by computing with a combination of a Central Processing Unit (CPU) and a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) device. This technique is intended to provide robust and accurate simulations with high computation speedups with respect to a single-core CPU in real events. The proposed numerical model is evaluated in cases that include the transport and reaction of water quality components over irregular bed topography and dry–wet fronts, verifying that the numerical solution in these situations conserves the required properties (C-property and positivity). The model can operate in any steady or unsteady form allowing an efficient assessment of the environmental impact of water flows. The field data from an unsteady river reach test case are used to show that the model is capable of predicting the measured temporal distribution of dissolved oxygen and water temperature, proving the robustness and computational efficiency of the model, even in the presence of noisy signals such as wind speed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The HTAP_v3 emission mosaic: merging regional and global monthly emissions (2000–2018) to support air quality modelling and policies

This study, performed under the umbrella of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP), responds to the global and regional atmospheric modelling community's need of a mosaic emission inventory of air pollutants that conforms to specific requirements: global coverage, long time series, spatially distributed emissions with high time resolution, and a high sectoral resolution. The mosaic approach of integrating official regional emission inventories based on locally reported data, with a global inventory based on a globally consistent methodology, allows modellers to perform simulations of high scientific quality while also ensuring that the results remain relevant to policymakers. HTAP_v3, an ad hoc global mosaic of anthropogenic inventories, has been developed by integrating official inventories over specific areas (North America, Europe, Asia including Japan and South Korea) with the independent Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory for the remaining world regions. The results are spatially and temporally distributed emissions of SO 2 , NO $x$ , CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), NH 3 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC), with a spatial resolution of 0.1º × 0.1º and time intervals of months and years, covering the period 2000–2018. The emissions are further disaggregated into 16 anthropogenic emitting sectors. This paper describes the methodology applied to develop such an emission mosaic, reports on source allocation, differences among existing inventories, and best practices for the mosaic compilation. One of the key strengths of the HTAP_v3 emission mosaic is its temporal coverage, enabling the analysis of emission trends over the past 2 decades. The development of a global emission mosaic over such long time series represents a unique product for global air quality modelling and for better-informed policymaking, reflecting the community effort expended by the TF-HTAP to disentangle the complexity of transboundary transport of air pollution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The HTAP_v3.2 emission mosaic: merging regional and global monthly emissions (2000–2020) to support air quality modelling and policies

This study, performed under the umbrella of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP), responds to the need of the global and regional atmospheric modelling community of having a mosaic emission inventory of air pollutants that conforms to specific requirements: global coverage, long time series, spatially distributed emissions with high time resolution, and a high sectoral resolution. The mosaic approach of integrating official regional emission inventories based on locally reported data, with a global inventory based on a globally consistent methodology, allows modellers to perform simulations of a high scientific quality while also ensuring that the results remain relevant to policymakers. HTAP_v3.2, an ad-hoc global mosaic of anthropogenic inventories, is an update to the HTAP_v3 global mosaic inventory and has been developed by integrating official inventories over specific areas (North America, Europe, Asia including China, Japan and Korea) with the independent Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory for the remaining world regions. The results are spatially and temporally distributed emissions of SO 2 , NO x , CO, NMVOC, NH 3 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , Black Carbon (BC), and Organic Carbon (OC), with a spatial resolution of 0.1 × 0.1° and time intervals of months and years covering the period 2000–2020 (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17086684, Crippa, 2025, https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_htap_v32, last access: 27 October 2025). The emissions are further disaggregated to 16 anthropogenic emitting sectors. This paper describes the methodology applied to develop such an emission mosaic, reports on source allocation, differences among existing inventories, and best practices for the mosaic compilation. One of the key strengths of the HTAP_v3.2 emission mosaic is its temporal coverage, enabling the analysis of emission trends over the past two decades. The development of a global emission mosaic over such long time series represents a unique product for global air quality modelling and for better-informed policy making, reflecting the community effort expended by the TF-HTAP to disentangle the complexity of transboundary transport of air pollution.

Guizzardi, Diego [European Commission, Ispra (Ital↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Decision-Relevant Factor-Fixing Framework: Application to Uncertainty Analysis of a High-Dimensional Water Quality Model

Factor Fixing (FF) is a common method for reducing the number of model parameters to lower computational cost. FF typically starts with distinguishing the insensitive parameters from the sensitive and pursues uncertainty quantification (UQ) on the resulting reduced-order model, fixing each insensitive parameter at a fixed value. There is a need, however, to expand such a common approach to consider the effects of decision choices in the FF-UQ procedure on metrics of interest. Therefore, to guide the use of FF and increase confidence in the resulting dimension-reduced model, we propose a new adaptive framework consisting of four principles: (a) re-parameterize the model first to reduce obvious non-identifiable parameter combinations, (b) focus on decision relevance especially with respect to errors in quantities of interest (QoI), (c) conduct adaptive evaluation and robustness assessment of errors in the QoI across FF choices as sample size increases, and (d) reconsider whether fixing is warranted. The framework is demonstrated on a spatially-distributed water quality model. The error in estimates of QoI caused by FF can be estimated using a Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) surrogate model. Built with 70 model runs, the surrogate is computationally inexpensive to evaluate and can provide global sensitivity indices for free. For the selected catchment, just two factors may provide an acceptably accurate estimate of model uncertainty in the average annual load of Total Suspended Solids (TSS), suggesting that reducing the uncertainty in these two parameters is a priority for future work before undertaking further formal uncertainty quantification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

3D-equivariant graph neural networks for protein model quality assessment

Quality assessment (QA) of predicted protein tertiary structure models plays an important role in ranking and using them. With the recent development of deep learning end-to-end protein structure prediction techniques for generating highly confident tertiary structures for most proteins, it is important to explore corresponding QA strategies to evaluate and select the structural models predicted by them since these models have better quality and different properties than the models predicted by traditional tertiary structure prediction methods. We develop EnQA, a novel graph-based 3D-equivariant neural network method that is equivariant to rotation and translation of 3D objects to estimate the accuracy of protein structural models by leveraging the structural features acquired from the state-of-the-art tertiary structure prediction method—AlphaFold2. We train and test the method on both traditional model datasets (e.g. the datasets of the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction) and a new dataset of high-quality structural models predicted only by AlphaFold2 for the proteins whose experimental structures were released recently. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on protein structural models predicted by both traditional protein structure prediction methods and the latest end-to-end deep learning method—AlphaFold2. It performs even better than the model QA scores provided by AlphaFold2 itself. The results illustrate that the 3D-equivariant graph neural network is a promising approach to the evaluation of protein structural models. Integrating AlphaFold2 features with other complementary sequence and structural features is important for improving protein model QA.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recent Progress on Surface Water Quality Models Utilizing Machine Learning Techniques

Surface waterbodies are heavily exposed to pollutants caused by natural disasters and human activities. Empowering sensor technologies in water quality monitoring, sufficient measurements have become available to develop machine learning (ML) models. Numerous ML models have quickly been adopted to predict water quality indicators in various surface waterbodies. This paper reviews 78 recent articles from 2022 to October 2024, categorizing water quality models utilizing ML into three groups: Point-to-Point (P2P), which estimates the current target value based on other measurements at the same time point; Sequence-to-Point (S2P), which utilizes previous time series data to predict the target value at one time point ahead; and Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S), which uses previous time series data to forecast sequential target values in the future. The ML models used in each group are classified and compared according to water quality indicators, data availability, and model performance. Widely used strategies for improving performance, including feature engineering, hyperparameter tuning, and transfer learning, are recognized and described to enhance model effectiveness. The interpretability limitations of ML applications are discussed. This review provides a perspective on emerging ML for surface water quality models.

machine learning (ML)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting secondary organic aerosol phase state and viscosity and its effect on multiphase chemistry in a regional-scale air quality model

Atmospheric aerosols are a significant public health hazard and have substantial impacts on the climate. Secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) have been shown to phase separate into a highly viscous organic outer layer surrounding an aqueous core. This phase separation can decrease the partitioning of semi-volatile and low-volatile species to the organic phase and alter the extent of acid-catalyzed reactions in the aqueous core. A new algorithm that can determine SOA phase separation based on their glass transition temperature (T g ), oxygen to carbon (O:C) ratio and organic mass to sulfate ratio, and meteorological conditions was implemented into the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling (CMAQ) system version 5.2.1 and was used to simulate the conditions in the continental United States for the summer of 2013. SOA formed at the ground/surface level was predicted to be phase separated with core–shell morphology, i.e., aqueous inorganic core surrounded by organic coating 65.4 % of the time during the 2013 Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS) on average in the isoprene-rich southeastern United States. Our estimate is in proximity to the previously reported ~70 % in literature. The phase states of organic coatings switched between semi-solid and liquid states, depending on the environmental conditions. The semi-solid shell occurring with lower aerosol liquid water content (western United States and at higher altitudes) has a viscosity that was predicted to be 10 2 –10 12 Pa s, which resulted in organic mass being decreased due to diffusion limitation. Organic aerosol was primarily liquid where aerosol liquid water was dominant (eastern United States and at the surface), with a viscosity <10 2 Pa s. Phase separation while in a liquid phase state, i.e., liquid–liquid phase separation (LLPS), also reduces reactive uptake rates relative to homogeneous internally mixed liquid morphology but was lower than aerosols with a thick viscous organic shell. The sensitivity cases performed with different phase-separation parameterization and dissolution rate of isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX) into the particle phase in CMAQ can have varying impact on fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) organic mass, in terms of bias and error compared to field data collected during the 2013 SOAS. This highlights the need to better constrain the parameters that govern phase state and morphology of SOA, as well as expand mechanistic representation of multiphase chemistry for non-IEPOX SOA formation in models aided by novel experimental insights.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Protein model quality assessment using rotation–equivariant transformations on point clouds

Machine learning research concerning protein structure has seen a surge in popularity over the last years with promising advances for basic science and drug discovery. Working with macromolecular structure in a machine learning context requires an adequate numerical representation, and researchers have extensively studied representations such as graphs, discretized 3D grids, and distance maps. As part of CASP14, we explored a new and conceptually simple representation in a blind experiment: atoms as points in 3D, each with associated features. These features—initially just the basic element type of each atom—are updated through a series of neural network layers featuring rotation-equivariant convolutions. Starting from all atoms, we further aggregate information at the level of alpha carbons before making a prediction at the level of the entire protein structure. We find that this approach yields competitive results in protein model quality assessment despite its simplicity and despite the fact that it incorporates minimal prior information and is trained on relatively little data. As a result, its performance and generality are particularly noteworthy in an era where highly complex, customized machine learning methods such as AlphaFold 2 have come to dominate protein structure prediction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Drinking Water Quality Modeling: Leveraging Physics Informed Neural Networks for Learning with Imperfect Reaction Models and Partial Data

Chemical kinetics models, typically formulated as systems of ordinary or partial differential equations, are valuable tools for simulating drinking water quality. However, these models often face inaccuracies due to discrepancies between the laboratory and the real-world conditions, as well as limitations in experimental analytical methods, hindering the accurate representation of the true underlying chemical mechanisms. In this study, we propose a Physics Informed Neural Network (PINN), using the eXtreme Theory of Functional Connections, to improve the prediction of chemical concentrations over time. The PINN method accounts for imperfect chemical models and incorporates partial data to improve predictions. Focusing on reactions describing water disinfection residual and disinfectant byproduct formation, which are crucial for public health and regulatory compliance, we demonstrate that the PINN model is able to accurately predict the concentrations of chemical species across various pH values. Notably, the model extends its accuracy to predict concentrations of chemical species not originally included in its training data. The developed method can be extended to a variety of chemical systems, offering a wide array of potential applications.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Field Quality Modeling in Canted Cosine Theta Dipole Magnets Wound Using REBCO Cables

In accelerator magnets the magnetic field quality is an important parameter. Using REBCO tapes or cables in magnet windings affects the magnetic field quality because of a quite high magnetization generated by these conductors. In this paper we analyzed numerically (using FEM) an effect of various REBCO cables’ magnetization on the field quality of canted cosine theta (CCT) dipole magnets. The magnetic properties of the cables were taken from our measurements of their M (H) curves at 4.2 K and magnetic fields up to 12 T. Also, flux creep effects were measured and their effects on field quality analyzed. Here we present a modeling of a CCT magnet containing 1 dipole double layer wound using a CORC and STAR cable. To make the FEM modeling less computationally “expensive”, we modelled only a section of 10 turns of the magnet's central part and calculated b3 fields on a circle of 2/3 of the innermost layer center line. Special M (H) curves measured during various field cycles (the so called “pre-injection cycles”) are effective in decreasing b 3 fields of the magnets. Flux creep effects suppress the b 3 fields further. In conclusion, using these techniques b 3 fields less than 10 units can be achieved.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Location generalizability of image-based air quality models

This paper is to be submitted at the IEEE/CVF Winter Conference on Applications of Computer Vision (WACV) Computer Vision for Earth Observation workshop. The full paper abstract is below: The ability to rapidly quantify atmospheric pollutants is important both for global emissions monitoring and for mitigating the adverse effects that follow a hazardous chemical release. In the aftermath of a chemical release, imagery is often the only available resource to assess local conditions. Recent work has demonstrated initial success in predicting particulate matter pollution from imagery; however, these results are tied to a specific site and do not generalize to new geographic locations. In this work, we seek to understand how easily deep learning models generalize to new locations in the context of image-based air quality assessments, targeting two distinct tasks: (1) broad measures of particulate matter pollution, and (2) the mass of a given chemical released in hazardous plumes. For the latter, we focus on sulfur dioxide, a toxic aerosol and a major component of particulate matter pollution caused by industrial fossil fuel consumption. To develop a model that operates in the widest possible range of environments, we test different training strategies, including the use of new geolocation foundation models. The best performing models achieve >80% accuracy when evaluating unseen imagery at previously seen sites, but we find significant drops in performance when evaluating imagery from unseen sites, at best 65%. Additionally, we present the public release of the National Parks Air Quality Index Dataset, a new medium-sized dataset that pairs imagery with sensor-based air quality measurements at 15 different national parks.

Byler, Eleanor B. [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗