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Results for “Quantitative Economics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Economic Analysis of On-Route Fast Charging for Battery Electric Buses: Case Study in Utah

Battery electric buses (BEBs) are increasingly being embraced by transit agencies as an energy-efficient and emission-free alternative to bus fleets. However, because of the limitations of battery technology, BEBs suffer from limited driving range, great battery cost, and time-consuming charging processes. On-route fast charging technology is gaining popularity as a remedy, reducing battery cost, extending driving range, and reducing charging time. With on-route fast charging, BEBs are as capable as their diesel counterparts in relation to range and operating time. However, transit agencies may have the following concerns about on-route fast charging: 1) on-route fast charging stations require massive capital costs; 2) on-route fast charging may lead to high electricity power demand charges; and 3) charging during peak hours may increase electricity energy charges. This study conducts a quantitative economic analysis of on-route fast charging for BEBs, thereby providing some guidelines for transit agencies. An integrated optimization model is first proposed to determine battery size, charger type, and recharging schedule for a general BEB route. Based on the model, an economic analysis of on-route fast charging is then performed on 10 real-world bus routes and a simplified general bus route with different parameters. The results demonstrate that given the current prices of on-route fast charging stations and batteries, it is always beneficial to install on-route fast charging stations for BEBs. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted to show the impact of potential price reductions of batteries.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Empirical Quantile Estimation Approach for Chance-Constrained Nonlinear Optimization Problems

We investigate an empirical quantile estimation approach to solve chance-constrained nonlinear optimization problems. Our approach is based on the reformulation of the chance constraint as an equivalent quantile constraint to provide stronger signals on the gradient. In this approach, the value of the quantile function is estimated empirically from samples drawn from the random parameters, and the gradient of the quantile function is estimated via a finite-difference approximation on top of the quantile-function-value estimation. We establish a convergence theory of this approach within the framework of an augmented Lagrangian method for solving general nonlinear constrained optimization problems. The foundation of the convergence analysis is a concentration property of the empirical quantile process, and the analysis is divided based on whether or not the quantile function is differentiable. In contrast to the sampling-and-smoothing approach used in the literature, the method developed in this paper does not involve any smoothing function and hence the quantile-function gradient approximation is easier to implement and there are less accuracy-control parameters to tune. Furthermore, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach and compare it with a smoothing method for the quantile-gradient estimation. Numerical investigation shows that the two approaches are competitive for certain problem instances.

Applied Probability↗
NASA NTRS1978

Candidate substances for space bioprocessing methodology and data specification for benefit evaluation

Analytical and quantitative economic techniques are applied to the evaluation of the economic benefits of a wide range of substances for space bioprocessing. On the basis of expected clinical applications, as well as the size of the patient that could be affected by the clinical applications, eight substances are recommended for further benefit evaluation. Results show that a transitional probability methodology can be used to model at least one clinical application for each of these substances. In each recommended case, the disease and its therapy are sufficiently well understood and documented, and the statistical data is available to operate the model and produce estimates of the impact of new therapy systems on the cost of treatment, morbidity, and mortality. Utilizing the morbidity and mortality information produced by the model, a standard economic technique called the Value of Human Capital is used to estimate the social welfare benefits that could be attributable to the new therapy systems.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1975

SEASAT economic assessment. Volume 5: Coastal zones case study and generalization

The economic losses sustained in the U.S. coastal zones were studied for the purpose of quantitatively establishing economic benefits as a consequence of improving the predictive quality of destructive phenomena in U.S. coastal zones. Improved prediction of hurricane landfall and improved experimental knowledge of hurricane seeding are discussed.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2012

Driftless Area Initiative Biomass Energy Project

The Driftless Area Initiative Biomass Energy Project evaluated the potential for biomass energy production and utilization throughout the Driftless Region of Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The research and demonstration aspect of the project specifically focused on biomass energy feedstock availability and production potential in the region, as well as utilization potential of biomass feedstocks for heat, electrical energy production, or combined heat and power operations. The Driftless Region was evaluated because the topography of the area offers more acres of marginal soils on steep slopes, wooded areas, and riparian corridors than the surrounding “Corn Belt”. These regional land characteristics were identified as potentially providing opportunity for biomass feedstock production that could compete with traditional agriculture commodity crops economically. The project researched establishment methods and costs for growing switchgrass on marginal agricultural lands to determine the economic and quantitative feasibility of switchgrass production for biomass energy purposes. The project was successful in identifying the best management and establishment practices for switchgrass in the Driftless Area, but also demonstrated that simple economic payback versus commodity crops could not be achieved at the time of the research. The project also analyzed the availability of woody biomass and production potential for growing woody biomass for large scale biomass energy production in the Driftless Area. Analysis determined that significant resources exist, but costs to harvest and deliver to the site were roughly 60% greater than that of natural gas at the time of the study. The project contributed significantly to identifying both production potential of biomass energy crops and existing feedstock availability in the Driftless Area. The project also analyzed the economic feasibility of dedicated energy crops in the Driftless Area. High commodity crop prices and land values coupled with low fossil fuel prices, particularly natural gas, hampered the likelihood of widespread production and/or utilization of for large scale heating or electrical generation at the time of the study.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design and requirements of a hydrogen component reliability database (HyCReD)

Hydrogen technologies are expected to play a key role in the decarbonization of several sectors including energy storage and transportation. Rigorous investigation and quantification of the risk and reliability issues associated with hydrogen technologies will be critical to ensuring both their wider adoption and safe, economical operations. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is an important tool that has been used to enable the safe deployment of many engineering systems, including hydrogen fueling stations and hydrogen storage systems. However, QRA studies require reliability data which is currently lacking for expanding applications of hydrogen systems. Here, to address this gap, we present a new structure for a hydrogen component reliability database (HyCReD) that can be used to generate reliability data to be used in QRA, reliability, safety studies, maintenance planning, and more. Building on our previous work examining four major hydrogen safety data collection tools (West et al., 2022) [1], our approach in this work was to consult scientific literature on reliability data collection as well as a number of existing reliability engineering databases in the oil & gas, chemical processing, and nuclear power plant sectors. The evaluation of these databases led to identifying best practices to be implemented in a data collection framework for a hydrogen component reliability database. Based on these best practices, a set of 24 requirements for the proposed database are presented, covering its characteristics and the types of data to be collected. We define the structure of the HyCReD database and 25 data elements to be collected, spanning system description, failure, shutdown, or near-miss events, and maintenance events. The data elements are then defined according to international standards used in the safety and reliability practice and potential choice lists are provided for each field. Since this database is being piloted for hydrogen fueling stations, a generic station component hierarchy developed by West (2021) [2] is used to standardize system data. Finally, we demonstrate populating the database with information extracted from five narrative reports on hydrogen fueling station incidents.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2016

Simultaneously Revealing All Lysine Acylations in an Organism to Elucidate Substrate Metabolism

Within the past 8 years, lysine acetylation knowledge has extended greatly beyond one modification important for chromatin maintenance and transcription regulation to the whole family of reversible conserved short‐chain acylations emerging as an important regulatory mechanism coordinating metabolism in response to changes in nutrient availability. Inspired by these lysine acylation discoveries, we devise a mass spectrometry (MS) method to simultaneously reveal and evaluate all lysine acylations in an organism. Hypothesizing that an organism's pool of acyl‐CoA esters could suggest potential acyl‐lysine modifications hidden within MS/MS datasets, we chose two syntrophic bacteria, Syntrophomonas wolfei and Syntrophus aciditrophicus, for the study. They activate fatty acid and/or aromatic substrates with coenzyme A and stepwise convert acyl‐CoAs down to acetyl‐CoA for ATP production, thus containing a variety of acyl‐CoA intermediates. Different from the current approach of immuno‐enriching acylated peptide prior to MS, our shotgun non‐enrichment MS approach allows a quick, non immuno‐bias, economical and quantitative one‐step assessment of all lysine acylations within an organism, and the modification stoichiometries and their relative levels. We also showed characteristic ions are reliable to detect and confirm lysine acylations, establishing seven lysine acylations first seen in any organism and doubling the number of known short‐chain acylations. Our lysine acylation studies suggest a metabolism regulation mechanism in these syntrophs living at the thermodynamic limit of feasibility. This proteomic approach can be applied to any organism having a complex profile of acyl‐CoAs, especially anaerobic bacteria degrading fatty acids and aromatic compounds and gut bacteria producing butyrate. Support or Funding Information This work is funded by the US Department of Energy (UCLA Institute of Genomics and Proteomics, DE‐FC03‐02ER63421 to J. Loo) and the National Institutes of Health (R01GM085402 to J. Loo and R. Ogorzalek Loo).

Nguyen, Hong Hanh T.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Communications satellite systems operations with the space station, volume 2

A financial model was developed which described quantitatively the economics of the space segment of communication satellite systems. The model describes the economics of the space system throughout the lifetime of the satellite. The expected state-of-the-art status of communications satellite systems and operations beginning service in 1995 were assessed and described. New or enhanced space-based activities and associated satellite system designs that have the potential to achieve future communications satellite operations in geostationary orbit with improved economic performance were postulated and defined. Three scenarios using combinations of space-based activities were analyzed: a spin stabilized satellite, a three axis satellite, and assembly at the Space Station and GEO servicing. Functional and technical requirements placed on the Space Station by the scenarios were detailed. Requirements on the satellite were also listed.

Price, K.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Interactive statistical decision tools (GiSdT): An open source software integration of decision analysis and stakeholder judgment for sustainable waste management, disposal and remediation - 15650

The vast majority of remediation and waste management decisions are made without quantitative consideration of economic and socio-political factors. They are made instead based on quantitative metrics of human health risk. Sustainable decisions need to be made based on all three 'pillars of sustainability' (economics, environment and social), and require understanding and characterization of the costs and values associated with each pillar. In addition, such decisions need to conform to regulatory or other legal requirements, which often constrains the decision space of interest. Although efforts are often made to include factors across all three pillars (for example, for decisions made under CERCLA), these efforts are usually qualitative, and hence difficult to defend. They lack technical defensibility, transparency and traceability. The purpose of GiSdT (Guided Interactive Statistical Decision Tools) is to provide a quantitative framework whereby all aspects of a decision problem, such as remediation and waste management decisions, can be addressed quantitatively, and hence, defensibly, transparently and traceably. Most decision-makers do not currently have access to useful or usable methods and approaches when are presented with choices that have significant impacts across all three pillars of sustainability. The goal of GiSdT is to provide that access by identifying or developing effective and user-friendly decision methods and approaches that empower decision-makers to explicitly and routinely incorporate all aspects of sustainability into their decision-making. To identify and develop these methods and approaches, GiSdT provides the tools needed for decision-makers and stakeholders to understand and characterize their knowledge of their current decision-making processes, and what methods and approaches they need to pro-actively and quantitatively address all aspects of sustainability in their decisions. GiSdT is an open source interactive framework program that provides the tools needed to address the relevant components of a sustainability-based decision problem, including describing the decision landscape, translating that landscape into goals and objectives, valuing the measurable attributes that describe each objective, identifying decision options and addressing the uncertainty in the attributes (e.g., human health risk, institutional controls) through appropriate probabilistic models. In addition to addressing these quantitative technical components, the GiSdT program is aimed at facilitating stakeholder involvement so that the perspectives, values and objectives are all relevant stakeholders are addressed explicitly in the decision making process. The technical underpinnings of our software program, called Guided Interactive Statistical Decision Tools (GiSdT), are described. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-dimensional resilience: A quantitative exploration of disease outcomes and economic, political, and social resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic in six countries

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted a need for better understanding of countries’ vulnerability and resilience to not only pandemics but also disasters, climate change, and other systemic shocks. A comprehensive characterization of vulnerability can inform efforts to improve infrastructure and guide disaster response in the future. In this paper, we propose a data-driven framework for studying countries’ vulnerability and resilience to incident disasters across multiple dimensions of society. To illustrate this methodology, we leverage the rich data landscape surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic to characterize observed resilience for several countries (USA, Brazil, India, Sweden, New Zealand, and Israel) as measured by pandemic impacts across a variety of social, economic, and political domains. We also assess how observed responses and outcomes (i.e., resilience) of the COVID-19 pandemic are associated with pre-pandemic characteristics or vulnerabilities, including (1) prior risk for adverse pandemic outcomes due to population density and age and (2) the systems in place prior to the pandemic that may impact the ability to respond to the crisis, including health infrastructure and economic capacity. Our work demonstrates the importance of viewing vulnerability and resilience in a multi-dimensional way, where a country’s resources and outcomes related to vulnerability and resilience can differ dramatically across economic, political, and social domains. This work also highlights key gaps in our current understanding about vulnerability and resilience and a need for data-driven, context-specific assessments of disaster vulnerability in the future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Economic Impacts from Wind Energy in Colorado Case Study: Rush Creek Wind Farm

This economic impact analysis of the Rush Creek Wind Farm 1) quantitatively modeled the gross economic impacts at the Colorado state-level and four-county region and 2) engaged with community members to draw specific insight on how wind development impacts their local economy. This study also provides useful insights on the economic impacts supported by Colorado's wind energy manufacturing and supply chain. The Rush Creek Wind Farm was Colorado's largest wind energy project in 2018. Jobs, gross domestic product, gross economic output, and earnings were estimated using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model. Researchers also engaged with communities near the Rush Creek Wind Farm to collect empirical economic data as well as first-hand knowledge of community-level impacts during wind farm construction. The case studies and qualitative research in this report provide context for the quantitative JEDI model results, describing the economic impacts to rural communities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Design for Remanufacturing Framework Incorporating Identification, Evaluation, and Validation: A Case Study of Hydraulic Manifold

In recent years, academic researchers and engineers in the industry have widely recognized the necessity of integrating remanufacturing considerations into product design iterations to advance sustainability objectives. Acknowledging the importance of design for remanufacturing (DfRem), efforts were made to develop tools and guidelines that could be implemented in practice. However, such methods largely rely upon experiential insights and qualitative assessments, leaving a gap in the ability to quantitatively assess the economic and environmental impacts of design choices. To bridge this gap, we investigate existing efforts and present a framework for DfRem that integrates established design and remanufacturing practices into a cohesive workflow with quantitative assessments. To demonstrate its efficacy for making practical design changes for remanufacturing, we apply the framework to a hydraulic manifold in a transmission system for heavy-duty tractors. Through this industry-relevant case study, we focus on showcasing the practical utility of our framework. Based on the identified design modifications from remanufacturability analysis, we estimate the reductions in life cycle costs, energy consumption, and emissions. Afterward, the modifications are tested using physical experiments with plans for integration into future iterations of the hydraulic manifold design and production. Here, we anticipate this framework can illustrate the process of remanufacturing that ensures improvements in sustainability while maintaining performance and reliability standards.

design for X↗
DOE OSTI2024

Demonstration of the carbon capture with building make-up air unit

Building-integrated carbon capture technology has the potential to reduce the cost of CO 2 capture while improving indoor air quality (IAQ). To promote the adoption of CO 2 capture in a building environment, this study investigated the possibility of integrating carbon capture technology with an existing rooftop make-up air unit (MAU) system to trap CO 2 . Here, in this study, a modular compact CO 2 capture system containing amine-functionalized polymer fibers was examined. The system, which was installed at the exhaust of the MAU, captures CO 2 before it leaves the building to enter the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas. The demonstrated average amount of CO 2 captured was 1.1–1.4 mmol/g of adsorbent material. Techno-economic analysis (TEA) was further performed on the CO 2 capture system, considering material costs, energy costs, as well as transportation and regeneration costs. These results were then used to estimate the levelized cost per ton CO 2 captured (LCOC). To achieve LCOC below $\$$100/t-CO 2 , adsorbents should have working capacities of 4.9 t and 3 t-CO 2 /year for 5 years and 10 years of operation, respectively. In summary, this study highlights a viable path toward the decarbonization of the commercial buildings sector and provides quantitative performance and economic insight on the suitability of building-integrated carbon capture technology.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

Transcriptome analysis of Brachypodium during fungal pathogen infection reveals both shared and distinct defense responses with wheat

Fusarium crown rot (FCR) of wheat and barley, predominantly caused by the fungal pathogen Fusarium pseudograminearum, is a disease of economic significance. The quantitative nature of FCR resistance within cultivated wheat germplasm has significantly limited breeding efforts to enhanced FCR resistance in wheat. In this study, we characterized the molecular responses of Brachypodium distachyon (Brachypodium hereafter) to F. pseudograminearum infection using RNA-seq to determine whether Brachypodium can be exploited as a model system towards better understanding of F. pseudograminearum-wheat interaction. The transcriptional response to infection in Brachypodium was strikingly similar to that previously reported in wheat, both in shared expression patterns of wheat homologs of Brachypodium genes and functional overlap revealed through comparative gene ontology analysis in both species. Metabolites produced by various biosynthetic pathways induced in both wheat and Brachypodium were quantified, revealing a high degree of overlap between these two species in metabolic response to infection but also showed Brachypodium does not produce certain defence-related metabolites found in wheat. Functional analyses of candidate genes identified in this study will improve our understanding of resistance mechanisms and may lead to the development of new strategies to protect cereal crops from pathogen infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scoping Study for Direct Power Extraction (DPE) Systems (Final Report)

NETL led a detailed scoping study of various direct power extraction systems and concepts for utility power generation. The study consisted of qualitative analysis along with quantitative techno-economic analysis of selected systems which use magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) power generators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

CO 2 Intermediate Storage (CIS) Concept Overview

The objective of this overview is to provide a comprehensive set of qualitative considerations to inform future quantitative technical and economic CIS analyses. This overview focuses on CO 2 EOR as the end-user for CCUS supply chains that might implement CIS.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-Duration Energy Storage: Resiliency for Military Installations

This report provides a quantitative techno-economic analysis of a long-duration energy storage (LDES) technology, when coupled to on-base solar photovoltaics (PV), to meet the U.S. Department of Defense's (DoD's) 14-day requirement to sustain critical electric loads during a power outage and significantly reduce an installation's carbon footprint. The LDES modeled is Antora Energy's battery energy storage system (BESS). It is currently at a technology readiness level (TRL) of 7 and not ready for full-scale deployment. To support decisions on the value of near-term demonstrations, this analysis looked at the potential value of Antora Energy's BESS if deployed in the future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗