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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

An Empirical Quantile Estimation Approach for Chance-Constrained Nonlinear Optimization Problems

We investigate an empirical quantile estimation approach to solve chance-constrained nonlinear optimization problems. Our approach is based on the reformulation of the chance constraint as an equivalent quantile constraint to provide stronger signals on the gradient. In this approach, the value of the quantile function is estimated empirically from samples drawn from the random parameters, and the gradient of the quantile function is estimated via a finite-difference approximation on top of the quantile-function-value estimation. We establish a convergence theory of this approach within the framework of an augmented Lagrangian method for solving general nonlinear constrained optimization problems. The foundation of the convergence analysis is a concentration property of the empirical quantile process, and the analysis is divided based on whether or not the quantile function is differentiable. In contrast to the sampling-and-smoothing approach used in the literature, the method developed in this paper does not involve any smoothing function and hence the quantile-function gradient approximation is easier to implement and there are less accuracy-control parameters to tune. Furthermore, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach and compare it with a smoothing method for the quantile-gradient estimation. Numerical investigation shows that the two approaches are competitive for certain problem instances.

Applied Probability↗

NASA NTRS1978

Candidate substances for space bioprocessing methodology and data specification for benefit evaluation

Analytical and quantitative economic techniques are applied to the evaluation of the economic benefits of a wide range of substances for space bioprocessing. On the basis of expected clinical applications, as well as the size of the patient that could be affected by the clinical applications, eight substances are recommended for further benefit evaluation. Results show that a transitional probability methodology can be used to model at least one clinical application for each of these substances. In each recommended case, the disease and its therapy are sufficiently well understood and documented, and the statistical data is available to operate the model and produce estimates of the impact of new therapy systems on the cost of treatment, morbidity, and mortality. Utilizing the morbidity and mortality information produced by the model, a standard economic technique called the Value of Human Capital is used to estimate the social welfare benefits that could be attributable to the new therapy systems.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1975

SEASAT economic assessment. Volume 5: Coastal zones case study and generalization

The economic losses sustained in the U.S. coastal zones were studied for the purpose of quantitatively establishing economic benefits as a consequence of improving the predictive quality of destructive phenomena in U.S. coastal zones. Improved prediction of hurricane landfall and improved experimental knowledge of hurricane seeding are discussed.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1987

Communications satellite systems operations with the space station, volume 2

A financial model was developed which described quantitatively the economics of the space segment of communication satellite systems. The model describes the economics of the space system throughout the lifetime of the satellite. The expected state-of-the-art status of communications satellite systems and operations beginning service in 1995 were assessed and described. New or enhanced space-based activities and associated satellite system designs that have the potential to achieve future communications satellite operations in geostationary orbit with improved economic performance were postulated and defined. Three scenarios using combinations of space-based activities were analyzed: a spin stabilized satellite, a three axis satellite, and assembly at the Space Station and GEO servicing. Functional and technical requirements placed on the Space Station by the scenarios were detailed. Requirements on the satellite were also listed.

Price, K.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Design for Remanufacturing Framework Incorporating Identification, Evaluation, and Validation: A Case Study of Hydraulic Manifold

In recent years, academic researchers and engineers in the industry have widely recognized the necessity of integrating remanufacturing considerations into product design iterations to advance sustainability objectives. Acknowledging the importance of design for remanufacturing (DfRem), efforts were made to develop tools and guidelines that could be implemented in practice. However, such methods largely rely upon experiential insights and qualitative assessments, leaving a gap in the ability to quantitatively assess the economic and environmental impacts of design choices. To bridge this gap, we investigate existing efforts and present a framework for DfRem that integrates established design and remanufacturing practices into a cohesive workflow with quantitative assessments. To demonstrate its efficacy for making practical design changes for remanufacturing, we apply the framework to a hydraulic manifold in a transmission system for heavy-duty tractors. Through this industry-relevant case study, we focus on showcasing the practical utility of our framework. Based on the identified design modifications from remanufacturability analysis, we estimate the reductions in life cycle costs, energy consumption, and emissions. Afterward, the modifications are tested using physical experiments with plans for integration into future iterations of the hydraulic manifold design and production. Here, we anticipate this framework can illustrate the process of remanufacturing that ensures improvements in sustainability while maintaining performance and reliability standards.

design for X↗

DOE OSTI2024

Demonstration of the carbon capture with building make-up air unit

Building-integrated carbon capture technology has the potential to reduce the cost of CO 2 capture while improving indoor air quality (IAQ). To promote the adoption of CO 2 capture in a building environment, this study investigated the possibility of integrating carbon capture technology with an existing rooftop make-up air unit (MAU) system to trap CO 2 . Here, in this study, a modular compact CO 2 capture system containing amine-functionalized polymer fibers was examined. The system, which was installed at the exhaust of the MAU, captures CO 2 before it leaves the building to enter the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas. The demonstrated average amount of CO 2 captured was 1.1–1.4 mmol/g of adsorbent material. Techno-economic analysis (TEA) was further performed on the CO 2 capture system, considering material costs, energy costs, as well as transportation and regeneration costs. These results were then used to estimate the levelized cost per ton CO 2 captured (LCOC). To achieve LCOC below $\$$100/t-CO 2 , adsorbents should have working capacities of 4.9 t and 3 t-CO 2 /year for 5 years and 10 years of operation, respectively. In summary, this study highlights a viable path toward the decarbonization of the commercial buildings sector and provides quantitative performance and economic insight on the suitability of building-integrated carbon capture technology.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2025

Assessing Commercialization Strategies for Evolving Network Demand (ASCEND) in the NASA Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Program

What will NASA’s future communications demand and expenditure look like, in a paradigm where space policy encourages maximum private sector involvement? In this paper we consider this question, as NASA moves towards commercial procurement for Direct-To-Earth and Space Relay communication services. We develop a new quantitative Techno-Economic Assessment (TEA) model capable of evaluating the incremental cost over time to NASA of utilizing commercial communication services, for different mission and market scenarios. We find that current and future NASA demand could be viably procured from commercial services, with the potential to reduce cost using non-exclusive networks and the sharing of fixed costs. However, there is a key trade-off identified between maximizing economies of scale benefits and ensuring sufficient competition between communication providers to avoid collusion and excessive pricing. For example, procuring from 1-2 providers would maximize scale economies, whereas procuring from 5-6 providers would maximize competition. Given this context, it would be prudent to seek to award service contracts for 3-4 providers to optimize economies of scale benefits, while mitigating possible market collusion. These recommendations enable NASA to successfully achieve its scientific mission over the next decade, while managing limited financial and networking resources.

NSN↗

NASA NTRS1988

Economic geology of lunar Helium-3

Economic geology evaluation of lunar He-3 should answer the question: Can lunar He-3 be sold on Earth with sufficient profit margins and low enough risk to attract capital investment in the enterprise. Concepts that relate to economic geology of recovering He-3 from the lunar maria are not new to human experience. A parametric cost and technology evaluation scheme, based on existing and future data, is required to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the comprehensive economic feasibility and return on investment of He-3 recovery from the lunar maria. There are also many political issues which must be considered as a result of nuclear fusion and lunar mining.

Schmitt, Harrison H.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Project analysis and integration economic analyses summary

An economic-analysis summary was presented for the manufacture of crystalline-silicon modules involving silicon ingot/sheet, growth, slicing, cell manufacture, and module assembly. Economic analyses provided: useful quantitative aspects for complex decision-making to the Flat-plate Solar Array (FSA) Project; yardsticks for design and performance to industry; and demonstration of how to evaluate and understand the worth of research and development both to JPL and other government agencies and programs. It was concluded that future research and development funds for photovoltaics must be provided by the Federal Government because the solar industry today does not reap enough profits from its present-day sales of photovoltaic equipment.

Macomber, H. L.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Economic impact of stimulated technological activity. Part 1: Overall economic impact of technological progress: Its measurement

Investigations were performed at the national economic level to explore the aggregate effects of technological progress on economic growth. Inadequacies in existing marco-economic yardsticks forced the study to focus on the cost savings effects achieved through technological progress. The central questions discussed in this report cover: (1) role of technological progress in economic growth, (2) factors determining the rate of economic growth due to technological progress; (3) quantitative measurements of relationships between technological progress, its determinants, and subsequent economic growth; and (4) effects of research and development activities of the space program. For Part 2, see N72-32174.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying the Economic Impacts of Managing Irradiated High-Assay Low-Enriched Fuel

Commercial nuclear power plants typically use nuclear fuel that is enriched up to five weight percent in the isotope 235 U. However, recently several vendors have proposed new nuclear power plant designs that would use fuel with 235 U enrichments between five weight percent and 19.75 weight percent. Nuclear fuel with this level of 235 U enrichment is known as “high assay low-enriched uranium.” Once it has been irradiated in a nuclear reactor and becomes used (or spent) nuclear fuel, it will be stored, transported, and disposed of. However, irradiated high assay low-enriched uranium fuel differs from typical irradiated nuclear fuel in several ways, and these differences may have economic effects on its storage, transport, and disposal, compared to typical irradiated nuclear fuel. A previous report described these differences qualitatively (Price et al., 2024); this report builds on the previous report and provides quantitative estimates of the potential economic effects on storage, transport, and disposal of high assay low-enriched uranium spent fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2000

Systematic Identification of Preferred Orbits for Magnetospheric Missions: Single Satellites - 1

This is a systematic attempt to identify and assess near-equatorial, high-eccentricity orbits best suited for studying the Earth's magnetosphere, in particular its most dynamic part, the plasma sheet of the magnetotail. The study was motivated by the design needs of a multi-spacecraft "constellation" mission, stressing low cost, minimal active control and economic launch strategies, and both quantitative and qualitative aspects were investigated. On one hand, by collecting hourly samples throughout the year, accurate estimates were obtained of the coverage of different regions, and of the frequency and duration of long eclipses. On the other hand, an intuitive understanding was developed of the factors which determine the merits of the mission, including long-range factors due to perturbations by the Moon, Sun and the Earth's equatorial bulge.

Stern, David P.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Climate Change Observation Accuracy: Requirements and Economic Value

This presentation will summarize a new quantitative approach to determining the required accuracy for climate change observations. Using this metric, most current global satellite observations struggle to meet this accuracy level. CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is a new satellite mission designed to resolve this challenge is by achieving advances of a factor of 10 for reflected solar spectra and a factor of 3 to 5 for thermal infrared spectra. The CLARREO spectrometers can serve as SI traceable benchmarks for the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) and greatly improve the utility of a wide range of LEO and GEO infrared and reflected solar satellite sensors for climate change observations (e.g. CERES, MODIS, VIIIRS, CrIS, IASI, Landsat, etc). A CLARREO Pathfinder mission for flight on the International Space Station is included in the U.S. Presidentâ€"TM"s fiscal year 2016 budget, with launch in 2019 or 2020. Providing more accurate decadal change trends can in turn lead to more rapid narrowing of key climate science uncertainties such as cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. A new study has been carried out to quantify the economic benefits of such an advance and concludes that the economic value is ~ $9 Trillion U.S. dollars. The new value includes the cost of carbon emissions reductions.

Wielicki, Bruce↗

NASA NTRS2016

Measuring Global Water Security Towards Sustainable Development Goals

Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience 'low water security' over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated-physical and socio-economic-approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term 'security' is conceptualized as a function of 'availability', 'accessibility to services', 'safety and quality', and 'management'. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

sustainable-development goals↗

NASA NTRS2012

Lunar Prospecting Using Thermal Wadis and Compact Rovers: Infrastructure for Surviving the Lunar Night - Part A

Recent missions have confirmed the existence of water and other volatiles on the Moon, both in permanently-shadowed craters and elsewhere. Non-volatile lunar resources may represent significant additional value as infrastructure or manufacturing feedstock. Characterization of lunar resources in terms of abundance concentrations, distribution, and recoverability is limited to in-situ Apollo samples and the expanding remote-sensing database. This paper introduces an approach to lunar resource prospecting supported by a simple lunar surface infrastructure based on the Thermal Wadi concept of thermal energy storage and using compact rovers equipped with appropriate prospecting sensors and demonstration resource extraction capabilities. Thermal Wadis are engineered sources of heat and power based on the storage and retrieval of solar-thermal energy in modified lunar regolith. Because Thermal Wadis keep compact prospecting rovers warm during periods of lunar darkness, the rovers are able to survive months to years on the lunar surface rather than just weeks without being required to carry the burdensome capability to do so. The resulting lower-cost, long-lived rovers represent a potential paradigm breakthrough in extra-terrestrial prospecting productivity and will enable the production of detailed resource maps. Integrating resource processing and other technology demonstrations that are based on the content of the resource maps will inform engineering economic studies that can define the true resource potential of the Moon. Once this resource potential is understood quantitatively, humans might return to the Moon with an economically sound objective including where to go, what to do upon arrival, and what to bring along.

Sacksteder, Kurt R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stability of aqueous neodymium complexes in carbonate-bearing solutions from 100–600 °C

Rare earth element exploration requires a quantitative understanding of factors governing their mobilization and economic concentration. However, the behavior of rare earth elements in carbonate- bearing hydrothermal fluids associated with carbonatite-hosted deposits is poorly understood, and conflicting mechanisms of rare earth transport by anionic ligands and alkali behavior have been described. Here, we report quantitative data to characterize the role of carbonate-bearing solutions in the hydrothermal mobilization of neodymium. Solubility studies of neodymium phosphate were performed at temperatures ranging from 100 to 600 °C in carbonate-bearing solutions. The thermodynamic data determined for the predominant complex were used to model the separation of neodymium from thorium in a simple flow-through system based on fluid and mineral compositions characteristic of carbonatite deposits. Our data suggest that neodymium transport is controlled by the stability of the carbonate species NdCO 3 OH o , and at temperatures of 500–600 °C, the concentrations of neodymium in solutions can reach ~1000 ppm.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1974

The economic value of remote sensing of earth resources from space: An ERTS overview and the value of continuity of service. Volume 4: Forestry, wildlife and rangeland

The economic value of ERS information in the resource management area of extensive use of living resources, forestry, wildlife, and rangeland, is determined. Timber and forage resources are quantitatively evaluated. It is shown that these resources have economic value in the tens of billions of dollars, but the economic benefits of improved management of the forests and rangelands are not limited to efficiency in the production of these commercial resources. Multiple-use values including watershed, wildlife, and recreation are also involved.

Andrews, J.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Migration and Livelihood Constellations: Assessing Common Themes in the Face of Environmental Change in Somalia and Among Agro-Pastoral Peoples

Research on migration has become more challenging due to at least four factors: (1) more complex migration traditions; (2) the development of migration economies that engage many types of migrants from ever more social and cultural backgrounds; (3) increasing likelihood of climate change-driven environmental migration; and (4) increasing likelihood of conflict-based migration in some contexts. These developments have shaken economic theories of migration and have encouraged interdisciplinary, methodologically mixed, qualitative and quantitative research and analysis. From a review of the literature, we have gleaned 11 common themes about environmental, economic and conflict migration that we differentiate by process (migration behaviours that are still evolving) and patterns (migration behaviours that have become customary). We then consider how positive and negative dimensions of migration can be captured and represented with close attention to livelihood constellations (multiple economic activities combined by individuals, households and families). Finally, focusing on Somalia and agro-pastoral peoples generally, where recent environmental and conflict migration have been added to decades of economic migration and centuries of seasonal, environmental migration associated with pastoralism, we combine historical and qualitative work to demonstrate the value of a livelihood constellation perspective.

migration↗