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Results for “Quasi-Biennial Oscillation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling the chemistry and transport impacts of the quasi-biennial oscillation on stratospheric ozone

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical winds perturbs stratospheric ozone throughout much of the atmosphere via changes in transport of ozone and other trace gases, as well as via temperature changes, both of which alter ozone chemistry. Attributing these causes of QBO–ozone variability may provide insights into model-to-model differences that contribute to ozone simulation. Here we develop a novel metric of steady-state ozone (SSO) to separate these effects: SSO calculates the local steady-state response of ozone due to the changes in temperature, chemical species, and overhead ozone column; the response due to circulation change is presumed when SSO shows no response. It is applied to the nudged Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) with interactive ozone chemistry to demonstrate its validity. The E3SMv2 simulations nudged to reanalysis data produced reasonable wind and ozone patterns, especially in the tropics. Consistent with previous studies, we find clear demarcations with pressure. Ozone perturbations in the upper stratosphere (<6 hPa) are predicted by temperature changes; those between 6 and 20 hPa are predicted by NO y changes, and those in the lower stratosphere show no temperature or NO y response and are presumably driven by circulation changes. These results are important for diagnosing model-to-model discrepancy in QBO–ozone response and enhancing the reliability of ozone projections.

Xie, Jinbo [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory↗
NASA NTRS1972

Note on variations in the 'quasi-biennial' oscillation.

Data compiled since 1962 are examined in an effort to quantify further the observed variations in the 'quasi-biennial' oscillation (QBO). A further study of temperatures and zonal winds is conducted for Canton Island, Ascension Island, and Balboa, C.Z. Statistics are derived for the period of record prior to 1962 and for that subsequent to 1962. The results of the investigation suggest that the QBO has remained in roughly geostrophic equilibrium since it was first observed.-

Mcinturff, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Kinetic energy and quasi-biennial oscillation.

The modulation of the vertical flux of kinetic energy to the stratosphere by the pressure-work effect at 100 mb is compared with variations in the hemispheric kinetic energy, the horizontal momentum and heat transports at 'low' latitudes, and the tropical zonal wind and temperature for the lower stratosphere. It is deduced that the variation of the vertical flux of geopotential is in phase with the kinetic energy in the lower stratosphere and is statistically related to the time rate of change of the horizontal transports of heat and momentum at 30 N. The association of these results to the general circulation of the lower stratosphere is considered.

Miller, A. J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental protocol for phase 1 of the APARC QUOCA (QUasibiennial oscillation and Ozone Chemistry interactions in the Atmosphere) working group

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the main mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere, influencing the predictability of other regions in the atmosphere through its teleconnections to the stratospheric polar vortices and coupling to surface tropical and extratropical variability. However, climate and forecasting models consistently underestimate QBO amplitudes in the lower stratosphere, likely contributing to their failure to simulate these teleconnections. One underexplored contributor to model biases is missing representation of ozone-radiative feedbacks, which enhance temperature variability in the lower stratosphere, particularly at periods at and greater than the QBO (>28 months). While previous studies suggest that ozone-radiative feedbacks can impact QBO periods, amplitudes and the associated secondary circulation in the lower stratosphere, the reported impacts differ widely among models and are hard to interpret due to differences in methodology. To this end, here we propose a coordinated experimental protocol – held joint between the Atmospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (APARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Initiative (QBOi) and Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI) activities – which is aimed at assessing the coupling between stratospheric ozone, temperature and the circulation. We use the proposed experiments to define the ozone feedback on the QBO in both present-day and idealized (abrupt quadrupling of carbon dioxide) climates. While primary focus is on the QBO, the proposed protocol also enables analysis of other aspects of ozone-radiative-dynamical coupling in the atmosphere, including impacts on the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and tropospheric eddy-driven jet responses to future climate change. Here we document the scientific rationale and design of the QUOCA Phase 1 experiments, summarize the data request, and give a brief overview of participating models. Preliminary results using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies E2-2 climate model are used to illustrate sensitivities to certain methodological choices.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation via a Surrogate‐Accelerated Multi‐Objective Optimization

Accurate simulation of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is challenging due to uncertainties in representing convectively generated gravity waves. We develop an end-to-end uncertainty quantification workflow that calibrates these gravity wave processes in E3SM for a realistic QBO. Central to our approach is a domain knowledge-informed, compressed representation of high-dimensional spatio-temporal wind fields. By employing a parsimonious statistical model that learns the fundamental frequency from complex observations, we extract interpretable and physically meaningful quantities capturing key attributes. Building on this, we train a probabilistic surrogate model that approximates the fundamental characteristics of the QBO as functions of critical physics parameters governing gravity wave generation. Leveraging the Karhunen–Loève decomposition, our surrogate efficiently represents these characteristics as a set of orthogonal features, capturing cross-correlations among multiple physics quantities evaluated at different pressure levels and enabling rapid surrogate-based inference at a fraction of the computational cost of full-scale simulations. Finally, we analyze the inverse problem using a multi-objective approach. Our study reveals a tension between amplitude and period that constrains the QBO representation, precluding a single optimal solution. To navigate this, we quantify the bi-criteria trade-off and generate a set of Pareto optimal parameter values that balance the conflicting objectives. This integrated workflow improves the fidelity of QBO simulations and offers a versatile template for uncertainty quantification in complex geophysical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1974

Four-D global reference atmosphere technical description, part 1

An empirical atmospheric model was developed which generates values for pressure, density, temperature, and winds from surface levels to orbital altitudes. The output parameters consist of components for: (1) latitude, longitude, and altitude dependent monthly and annual means; (2) quasi-biennial oscillations; and (3) random perturbations to simulate partially the variability due to synoptic, diurnal, planetary wave, and gravity wave variations. Quasi-biennial and random variation perturbations are computed from parameters determined from various empirical studies and are added to the monthly mean values. This model has been developed as a computer program called PROFILE which can be used to generate altitude profiles of atmospheric parameters along any simulated trajectory through the atmosphere. The PROFILE program was developed for design applications in the space shuttle program. Other applications of the model are discussed, such as for global circulation and diffusion studies, and for generating profiles for comparison with other atmospheric measurement techniques, (e.g. satellite measured temperature profiles).

Justus, C. G.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A global reference atmospheric model for surface to orbital altitudes

An empirical atmospheric model has been developed which generates values for pressure, density, temperature and winds from surface levels to orbital altitudes. The output parameters consist of components for: (1) latitude, longitude, and altitude dependent monthly means; (2) quasi-biennial oscillations; and (3) random perturbations to partially simulate the variability due to synoptic, diurnal, planetary wave and gravity wave variations. The monthly mean models consist of: NASA's four dimensional worldwide model for height, latitude, and longitude dependent monthly means from the surface to 25 km; and a newly developed latitude-longitude dependent model which is an extension of the Groves latitude dependent model for the region between 25 and 90 km. The Jacchia 1970 model is used above 90 km and is faired with the modified Groves values between 90 and 115 km. Quasi-biennial and random variation perturbations are computed from parameters determined from various empirical studies, and are added to the monthly mean values.

Justus, C. G.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the earth SysTem (CATALYST)

CATALYST proposes to perform foundational coordinated research in a team-oriented collaborative effort aimed at advancing a robust understanding of modes of Earth system variability and change using models, observations and process studies. The proposed research will address the DOE/BER mission by exploring the limits to predictability, identifying fundamental underlying mechanisms, quantifying interactions among modes of variability, and discovering tipping points in the Earth system to understand the current and future impacts of these phenomena on regional and global climate. Four fundamental gaps are identified in our knowledge of the Earth system: 1) What are the limits to predictability on various timescales? 2) What are the interactions among modes of Earth system variability? 3) How may modes of Earth system variability change in response to changes in external forcing, and what are the tipping points involved with those changes? 4) How are high impact events connected to modes of Earth system variability and how may they change in the future? Related to those gaps in our knowledge, we formulate four research objectives to address those gaps using a combination of Earth system models (ESMs) and machine learning (ML) methods. Research Objective 1 (RO1) addresses the first gap above and proposes to understand modes of variability and their limits of predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales using ESMs and ML. Research Objective 2 (RO2) addresses the second gap and proposes to use a hierarchy of models to understand relevant processes and feedbacks related to how modes of variability interact with each other. Research Objective 3 (RO3) is designed to study the third gap and proposes to examine the role of external forcings in changes of modes of Earth system variability and their interactions, and the likelihood and predictability of tipping points and irreversible changes. Research Objective 4 (RO4) will address the fourth gap and proposes to use high resolution ESMs, regionally refined models (RRMs), and ML methods to investigate the relationships between high impact events (e.g. flash droughts and precipitation extremes, atmospheric rivers (ARs), tropical cyclones (TCs), storm surge/sea level rise), the synoptic systems that produce them, and their changes related to modes of Earth system variability. The research will involve the use of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), CMIP multi-model data sets, a hierarchy of simpler models, and numerous observational data sets. In the course of the proposed research, CATALYST will contribute to metrics and diagnostics that will be integrated in Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC), particularly with regards to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and its interactions with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), high atmospheric pressure blocking, and new precipitation metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1971

Possible effects on the stratosphere of the 1963 Mt. Agung volcanic eruption.

Previous studies of atmospheric pollution resulting from the 1963 eruption of Mt. Agung have shown that the volcanic dust caused temperature increases in the lower stratosphere over Australia. The present study provides time series of monthly-mean lower stratospheric temperatures for eight tropical stations on both sides of the equator. The data have been smoothed by taking 12-month running means. The results suggest that any effect of the eruption may be impossible to isolate. Some features of the quasi-biennial oscillation in zonal winds and temperatures are pointed out which must be considered in any attempt to explain the peculiarities in the curves of monthly mean temperatures.

Mcinturff, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Wave-mean flow interactions in the upper atmosphere

The nature of internal gravity waves is described with special emphasis on their ability to transport energy and momentum. The conditions under which these fluxes interact with the mean state of the atmosphere are described and the results are applied to various problems of the upper atmosphere, including the quasi-biennial oscillation, the heat budget of the thermosphere, the general circulation of the mesosphere, turbulence in the mesosphere, and the 4-day circulation of the Venusian atmosphere.

Lindzen, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Wave-mean flow interactions in the upper atmosphere.

The nature of internal gravity waves is described with special emphasis on their ability to transport energy and momentum. The conditions under which these fluxes interact with the mean state of the atmosphere are described, and the results are applied to various problems of the upper atmosphere, including the quasi-biennial oscillation, the heat budget of the thermosphere, the general circulation of the mesosphere, turbulence in the mesosphere, and even the '4-day' circulation of the Venusian stratosphere. It is the implied purpose of this paper to convey some of the thinking that has gone on about the role of gravity waves in the large-scale circulation of the upper atmosphere.

Lindzen, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Periodic variations in stratospheric meridional wind from 20-65 km, at 80 deg N to 8 deg S

The variability of stratospheric meridional winds is examined in both space and time. Height-latitude sections for January along 70 deg E and 90 deg W show a divergence zone above 50 km near 60 deg N and an intense convergence zone 40 km near 50 deg N over North America. This latter structure, with southward winds in the Arctic and northward winds at mid-latitudes over North America, persists from October through April. Tidal winds dominate all other circulation features in summer at all latitudes, and throughout the year at low latitudes. To help understand the observed patterns of variability, long-term periodic features are analyzed. The quasi-biennial oscillation, annual wave, and four-month wave have amplitudes of about 10, 20, and 10 m/sec respectively in the Arctic near 45 km. The phase of the annual wave changes by nearly 180 deg in a narrow zone near 45 deg N. The semiannual wave has an amplitude of 10 m/sec. 50 deg N above 50 km equinoctial phase dates in the region of maximum amplitude. This polar semiannual wave corresponds closely to that previously found in the zonal wind.

Nastrom, G. D.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Periodic variations stratospheric temperature from 20-65 km at 80 deg N to 30 deg S

Results for a seasonally varying diurnal tide in temperature at Churchill are presented, and possible significant aliasing of longer period waves by this tide is discussed. A diurnal tide whose amplitude and phase are coherent throughout the year is found to have little effect on periodic amplitudes other than the long-term mean, because most rocketsonde observations are taken near the same local time each day. Errors in periodic components arising from lack of solar radiation corrections are found to be largest for the long-term mean with a small influence noted in the annual wave's amplitude. Spatial variations of the amplitudes and phases of long-period waves are examined through the use of height-latitude sections, 20-65 km, at 80 deg N to 30 deg S. The quasi-biennial oscillation and semiannual waves have tropical maxima of 2 and 3C near 30 and 40 km respectively. The annual wave's maximum is over 22C near 45 km at 70 deg N and the terannual wave's maximum is over 6C near 55 km at 80 deg N. The semiannual wave has to polar maxima: 7C near 75 deg N at 32 km and 3C above 60 km north of 35 deg N.

Nastrom, G. D.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Variability of the observed temperature, 20-60 km at 80 deg N to 40 deg S

Results are presented for a periodic analysis of atmospheric temperature variations at heights of from 20 to 60 km between 80 deg N and 40 deg S. The analysis is based on Meteorological Rocket Network temperatures not corrected for solar radiation or aliasing by the diurnal tide, and the frequencies examined include the long-term mean, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and the first six harmonics of the annual wave. Amplitudes are plotted for the long-term mean and QBO as well as for the annual, semiannual, and terannual components. The results show two distinct annual oscillations (the high-latitude one and another above the tropical stratopause) and a polar semiannual wave with two centers of large amplitude that are 90 deg out of phase and separated by a zone of minimum amplitude near 45 km.

Nastrom, G. D.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Periodic variations in stratospheric meridional wind from 20 to 65 km - 80 N to 70 S

Long-term periodic features in the meridional wind between 20 and 65 km attitude are analyzed. No appreciable periodic waves are found in the tropics. The quasi-biennial oscillation, annual wave, and four-month wave have maximum amplitudes of about 10, 20, and 10 m/s respectively in the arctic near 45 km. The phase of the annual wave changes by nearly 180 deg in a narrow zone near 45 deg N. The semiannual wave has an amplitude of 10 m/s near 50 deg N above 50 km with equinoctial phase dates in the region of maximum amplitude. The location of this polar semiannual wave corresponds closely to that previously found in the zonal wind.

Nastrom, G. D.↗