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NASA NTRS2024

Summary and Annotated Bibliography of Measurement Error Corrections with Potential Application in Future Quesst Mission Community Noise Studies

This document is motivated by likely needs of the Quesst mission community response tests, which will culminate in data collection and estimation of dose-response regression relationships for consideration by domestic and international aviation regulators. Furthermore, basic research questions evaluating interactions between rates of community annoyance, dose levels, and indicators of the presence of rattle, vibration, and startle hinge on hypothesis testing in the context of regression models. For a variety of reasons, noise doses may be known only imprecisely and may not reflect the actual level experienced by responding subjects. These differences between true dose and estimated dose, be they systematic or random, constitute covariate measurement error. Available statistics literature speaks to the impacts of measurement error on regression models, both in terms of bias in estimated coefficients and predicted values, and in terms of the loss of statistical power for hypothesis testing. Given the particulars of a categorical annoyance response variable and a continuous noise dose predictor variable subject to measurement error during testing, the emphasis of this report is on findings and methods pertinent to generalized linear (and mixed) models likely to be employed during the Quesst mission community tests. We reach the following conclusions: 1. Of four reviewed methods, structural Bayesian measurement error models and simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) may be the most readily applicable to Quesst mission community noise study objectives. 2. If warranted, a linear measurement model can help model systematic sources of measurement error that the classical measurement error does not. 3. For its ready implementation and small additional input requirements, simulation extrapolation may be ideally suited for addressing secondary research questions involving interactions between annoyance, noise dose, and other factors through hypothesis testing. 4. For their flexibility and ability to propagate uncertainty, structural Bayesian hierarchical models have great appeal for mission purposes; some care may be needed in developing appropriate probability models describing actual noise exposure during testing. An annotated bibliography logs additional papers and resources that may be of value to analysts in other projects and disciplines.

Dose-Response Model↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dose-Response Data Collection Preparation for the NASA Quesst Mission With the X-59

Supersonic flight has the potential to cut travel times in half; however, community annoyance to sonic booms led to the ban on overland commercial supersonic flight by the Federal Aviation Administration in 1973. As part of its Quesst mission, NASA is developing the X-59 aircraft to demonstrate quiet supersonic flight and collect dose-response data to inform regulators in their efforts to establish noise standards to replace the current supersonic speed limit. This talk presents an overview of the NASA Quesst mission and poses some challenges in collecting and analyzing X-59 dose-response data. For the upcoming community flight campaign, the noise dose is the loudness of a supersonic overflight of the X-59 and the perceptual response from participants is captured via surveys after the flyover events. Establishing a relationship between noise dose and perceptual response will be a key product of these efforts.

X-59↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA's Quesst Mission Status

Construction of NASA’s X-59 low-boom aircraft is nearing completion with its first flight scheduled within the next several months. The X-59 will be the low-boom noise source for a series of community noise surveys across the USA. The goal of NASA’s Quesst Mission is to collect and correlate noise and perceptual response data to low-loudness sonic booms so that the current prohibition on commercial supersonic aircraft flight overland can be reconsidered. This presentation describes the current state and future plans for the Quesst Mission and Commercial Supersonic Technology. Employment and internship opportunities for students and graduates are also outlined.

X-59↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Quesst Community Survey Campaign with the X-59 Aircraft

In its mission to expand knowledge and improve aviation, NASA conducts research to address sonic boom noise, the prime barrier to overland supersonic flight. For half a century, civilian aircraft have been required to fly slower than the speed of sound when over land to prevent sonic boom disturbances to communities under the flight path. However, lower noise levels may be achieved via new aircraft shaping techniques that reduce the merging of shockwaves generated during supersonic flight. As part of its Quesst mission, NASA is building a piloted, research aircraft called the X-59 to demonstrate low noise supersonic flight. After initial flight testing to ensure the aircraft performs as designed, NASA will begin a national campaign of supersonic flights over communities to collect data on how people perceive the sounds from this new design. The data collected will support the efforts of national and international noise regulators to develop new standards that would allow supersonic flight over land at low noise levels. This presentation summarizes the NASA Quesst community survey campaign and motivates key topics for focused technical discussions.

sonic boom↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Quesst Community Survey Campaign with the X-59 Aircraft

In its mission to expand knowledge and improve aviation, NASA conducts research to address sonic boom noise, the prime barrier to overland supersonic flight. For half a century, civilian aircraft have been required to fly slower than the speed of sound when over land to prevent sonic boom disturbances to communities under the flight path. However, lower noise levels may be achieved via new aircraft shaping techniques that reduce the merging of shockwaves generated during supersonic flight. As part of its Quesst mission, NASA is building a piloted, research aircraft called the X-59 to demonstrate low noise supersonic flight. After initial flight testing to ensure the aircraft performs as designed, NASA will begin a national campaign of supersonic flights over communities to collect data on how people perceive the sounds from this new design. The data collected will support the efforts of national and international noise regulators to develop new standards that would allow supersonic flight over land at low noise levels. This presentation summarizes the NASA Quesst community survey campaign.

supersonic flight↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Engineering Toward Commercial Supersonic Flight: NASA's Quesst Mission

NASA’s Quesst Mission has dual goals of demonstrating low-noise supersonic technology in flight and surveying public reactions to low-noise supersonic overflight. For half a century, commercial aircraft have been required to fly slower than the speed of sound over land to prevent “creating an unacceptable situation” on the ground due to sonic booms. However, aircraft shaping techniques honed through decades of research have dramatically changed the way shockwaves from supersonic flight merge together as they travel to the ground. What used to sound like a boom on the ground will be transformed into a thump. NASA is now building a full-scale, piloted demonstration aircraft called the X-59 to demonstrate low-noise supersonic flight. In 2024, the X-59 aircraft will commence a national series of community overflight surveys to collect data on how people perceive “sonic thumps.” The results will be provided to national and international noise regulators as they consider creating new standards that allow commercial supersonic flight over land at acceptably low noise levels. In this presentation we provide historical context for the current prohibitions on supersonic commercial flight. Using data collected during earlier NASA tests, we demonstrate how generalized linear mixed models can be used to inform the functional dose-response curve. We also illustrate simulation experiments of the variability of sonic thump exposure across the United States. Finally, we discuss some of the challenges in designing the future community studies and generalizing them to a nationally-representative dose-response curve.

Quesst↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dose-Response Data Considerations for the NASA Quesst Community Test Campaign

Key outcomes for NASA's Quesst mission are noise dose and perceptual response data to inform regulators on their decisions regarding noise certification standards for the future of overland commercial supersonic flight. Dose-response curves are commonly utilized in community noise studies to describe the annoyance of a community to a particular noise source. The X-59 aircraft utilizes shaped-boom technology to demonstrate low noise supersonic flight. For X-59 community studies, the sound level from X-59 overflights constitutes the dose, while the response is an annoyance rating selected from a verbal scale, e.g., “slightly annoyed” and “very annoyed.” Dose-response data will be collected from individual flyovers (single event dose) and an overall response to the accumulation of single events at the end of the day (cumulative dose). There are quantifiable sources of error in the noise dose due to uncertainty in microphone measurements of the sonic thumps and uncertainty in predicted noise levels at survey participant locations. Assessing and accounting for error in the noise dose is essential to obtain an accurate dose-response model. There is also a potential for error in the perceptual response. This error is due to the ability of participants to provide their response in a timely manner and participant fatigue after responding to up to one hundred surveys over the course of a month. This talk outlines various challenges in estimating noise dose and perceptual response and the methods considered in preparation for X-59 community tests.

dose-response↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA's Quesst Mission Status

This presentation details the current status of the NASA Quesst mission with a middle and high school audience in mind. It begins with a description of the author's path to NASA and then describes basic information about sonic booms. The X-59 aircraft is introduced as the noise source for a series of community noise surveys. The web-based survey instrument is outlined, and example dose-response relationships are shown.

X-59↗
NASA NTRS2018

Numerical Simulations of a Quiet SuperSonic Technology (QueSST) Aircraft Preliminary Design

Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations were performed on a Lockheed Martin Quiet SuperSonic Technology (QueSST) aircraft preliminary design to assess inlet performance. The FUN3D flow solver and its adjoint-based grid refinement capability were used for the simulations in hopes of determining internal "best practices" for predicting inlet performance on top-aft-mounted inlets. Several parameters were explored including tetrahedral vs. pentahedral cells in/around the boundary-layer regions, an engine axis-aligned linear pressure sensor vs. a pressure box objective as the grid adaptation metric, and the number of grid adaptation cycles performed. Additional simulations were performed on manually refined grids for comparison with the adjoint-based adapted grids. Results showed poor agreement in predicted inlet performance on the refined grids compared to experimental data. This was true regardless of whether the refinement was adjoint-based or manual, the cell type in/near the boundary-layer regions, or the grid adaptation metric used. In addition, the 40-probe total pressure recovery was shown to decrease asymptotically as the number of adaptation cycles is increased. Solutions on the unadapted grids generally had better agreement with experimental data than their refined grid counterparts.

Inlet Performance↗
NASA NTRS2018

Numerical Simulations of a Quiet SuperSonic Technology (QueSST) Aircraft Preliminary Design

Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations were performed on the Lockheed Martin Quiet SuperSonic Technology (QueSST) aircraft preliminary design to assess inlet performance. The FUN3D flow solver and its adjoint-based grid refinement capability was used for the simulations in hopes of determining internal "best practices" for predicting inlet performance on top-aft-mounted inlets. Several parameters were explored including tetrahedral vs. pentahedral cells in/around the boundary-layer regions, an engine axis-aligned linear pressure sensor vs. a pressure box objective as the grid adaptation metric, and the number of grid adaptation cycles performed. Additional simulations were performed on manually refined grids for comparison with the adjoint-based adapted grids

Adjoint-based Grid Adaptation↗
NASA NTRS2018

Numerical Simulations of a Quiet SuperSonic Technology (QueSST) Aircraft Preliminary Design

Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations were performed on the Lockheed Martin Quiet SuperSonic Technology (QueSST) aircraft preliminary design to assess inlet performance. The FUN3D flow solver and its adjoint-based grid refinement capability was used for the simulations in hopes of determining internal "best practices" for predicting inlet performance on top-aft-mounted inlets. Several parameters were explored including tetrahedral vs. pentahedral cells in/around the boundary-layer regions, an engine axis-aligned linear pressure sensor vs. a pressure box objective as the grid adaptation metric, and the number of grid adaptation cycles performed. Additional simulations were performed on manually refined grids for comparison with the adjoint-based adapted grids

Adjoint-based Grid Adaptation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Scope and Goals of NASA's Quesst Community Test Campaign with the X-59 Aircraft

In its mission to expand knowledge and improve aviation, NASA conducts research to address sonic boom noise, the prime barrier to overland supersonic flight. For half a century, civilian aircraft have been required to fly slower than the speed of sound when over land to prevent sonic boom disturbances to communities under the flight path. However, lower noise levels may be achieved via new aircraft shaping techniques that reduce the merging of shockwaves generated during supersonic flight. As part of its Quesst mission, NASA is building a piloted, experimental aircraft called the X-59 to demonstrate low noise supersonic flight. After initial flight testing to ensure the aircraft performs as designed, NASA will begin a national campaign of supersonic flights over communities to collect data on how people perceive the sounds from this new design. The data collected will support the efforts of national and international noise regulators to develop new standards that would allow supersonic flight over land at low noise levels. This paper provides an update on the planned experimental scope and key goals of the community test campaign.

sonic boom↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Overview of the NASA Quesst Community Test Campaign with the X-59 Aircraft

In its mission to expand knowledge and improve aviation, NASA conducts research to address sonic boom noise, the prime barrier to overland supersonic flight. For half a century civilian aircraft have been required to fly slower than the speed of sound when over land to prevent sonic boom disturbances to communities under the flight path. However, lower noise levels may be achieved via new aircraft shaping techniques that reduce the merging of shockwaves generated during supersonic flight. As part of its Quesst mission, NASA is building a piloted, experimental aircraft called the X-59 to demonstrate low noise supersonic flight. After initial flight testing to ensure the aircraft performs as designed, NASA will begin a national campaign of community overflight tests to collect data on how people perceive the sounds from this new design. The data collected will support national and international noise regulators’ efforts as they consider new standards that would allow supersonic flight over land at low noise levels. This presentation provides an overview of the community test campaign, including the scope, key objectives, stakeholders, and challenges.

Jonathan Rathsam↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Infusing Statistical Thinking into the NASA Quesst Community Test Campaign

Statistical thinking permeates many important decisions as NASA plans its Quesst mission, which will culminate in a series of community overflights using the X-59 aircraft to demonstrate low-noise supersonic flight. Month-long longitudinal surveys will be deployed to assess human perception and annoyance to this new acoustic phenomenon. NASA works with a large contractor team to develop systems and methodologies to estimate noise doses, to test and field socio-acoustic surveys, and to study the relationship between the two quantities, dose and response, through appropriate choices of statistical models. This latter dose-response relationship will serve as an important tool as national and international noise regulators debate whether overland supersonic flights could be permitted once again within permissible noise limits. In this presentation we highlight several areas where statistical thinking has come into play, including issues of sampling, classification and data fusion, and analysis of longitudinal survey data that are subject to rare events and the consequences of measurement error. We note several operational constraints that shape the appeal or feasibility of some decisions on statistical approaches, and we identify several important remaining questions to be addressed.

Bayesian model↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Scope and Goals of the NASA Quesst Community Test Campaign With the X-59 Aircraft

In its mission to expand knowledge and improve aviation, NASA conducts research to address sonic boom noise, the prime barrier to overland supersonic flight. For half a century, civilian aircraft have been required to fly slower than the speed of sound when over land to prevent sonic boom disturbances to communities under the flight path. However, lower noise levels may be achieved via new aircraft shaping techniques that reduce the merging of shockwaves generated during supersonic flight. As part of its Quesst mission, NASA is building a piloted, experimental aircraft called the X-59 to demonstrate low noise supersonic flight. After initial flight testing to ensure the aircraft performs as designed, NASA will begin a national campaign of supersonic flights over communities to collect data on how people perceive the sounds from this new design. The data collected will support the efforts of national and international noise regulators to develop new standards that would allow supersonic flight over land at low noise levels. This paper provides an update on the planned experimental scope and key goals of the community test campaign.

sonic boom↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mitigating the Impacts of Measurement Error in the Quesst Mission Community Noise Study

Beginning in 2025, the NASA Quesst mission will conduct a series of community response tests involving flyovers of the X-59 aircraft at select localities across the United States. Several waves of a longitudinal survey will be administered over approximately one month of testing in order to capture perceptual responses to low-amplitude sonic booms, or “sonic thumps”. Simultaneously, noise exposure levels will be estimated by fusing model-based predictions with measurements taken from a sparse network of monitors in the region. As one of the aims of the study is to produce a dose-response curve, a regression model relating perceptual response to noise exposure levels, it is important to acknowledge the potential attenuation bias that results from measurement error in the estimated noise exposure levels. In this presentation we review and compare several methods for dealing with measurement error in generalized linear mixed models. The methods are demonstrated on simulated data and real data collected during past NASA risk reduction studies.

measurement error↗