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At least 19 records

Statistical Engineering Toward Commercial Supersonic Flight: NASA's Quesst Mission

NASA’s Quesst Mission has dual goals of demonstrating low-noise supersonic technology in flight and surveying public reactions to low-noise supersonic overflight. For half a century, commercial aircraft have been required to fly slower than the speed of sound over land to prevent “creating an unacceptable situation” on the ground due to sonic booms. However, aircraft shaping techniques honed through decades of research have dramatically changed the way shockwaves from supersonic flight merge together as they travel to the ground. What used to sound like a boom on the ground will be transformed into a thump. NASA is now building a full-scale, piloted demonstration aircraft called the X-59 to demonstrate low-noise supersonic flight. In 2024, the X-59 aircraft will commence a national series of community overflight surveys to collect data on how people perceive “sonic thumps.” The results will be provided to national and international noise regulators as they consider creating new standards that allow commercial supersonic flight over land at acceptably low noise levels. In this presentation we provide historical context for the current prohibitions on supersonic commercial flight. Using data collected during earlier NASA tests, we demonstrate how generalized linear mixed models can be used to inform the functional dose-response curve. We also illustrate simulation experiments of the variability of sonic thump exposure across the United States. Finally, we discuss some of the challenges in designing the future community studies and generalizing them to a nationally-representative dose-response curve.

Quesst↗

Summary and Annotated Bibliography of Measurement Error Corrections with Potential Application in Future Quesst Mission Community Noise Studies

This document is motivated by likely needs of the Quesst mission community response tests, which will culminate in data collection and estimation of dose-response regression relationships for consideration by domestic and international aviation regulators. Furthermore, basic research questions evaluating interactions between rates of community annoyance, dose levels, and indicators of the presence of rattle, vibration, and startle hinge on hypothesis testing in the context of regression models. For a variety of reasons, noise doses may be known only imprecisely and may not reflect the actual level experienced by responding subjects. These differences between true dose and estimated dose, be they systematic or random, constitute covariate measurement error. Available statistics literature speaks to the impacts of measurement error on regression models, both in terms of bias in estimated coefficients and predicted values, and in terms of the loss of statistical power for hypothesis testing. Given the particulars of a categorical annoyance response variable and a continuous noise dose predictor variable subject to measurement error during testing, the emphasis of this report is on findings and methods pertinent to generalized linear (and mixed) models likely to be employed during the Quesst mission community tests. We reach the following conclusions: 1. Of four reviewed methods, structural Bayesian measurement error models and simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) may be the most readily applicable to Quesst mission community noise study objectives. 2. If warranted, a linear measurement model can help model systematic sources of measurement error that the classical measurement error does not. 3. For its ready implementation and small additional input requirements, simulation extrapolation may be ideally suited for addressing secondary research questions involving interactions between annoyance, noise dose, and other factors through hypothesis testing. 4. For their flexibility and ability to propagate uncertainty, structural Bayesian hierarchical models have great appeal for mission purposes; some care may be needed in developing appropriate probability models describing actual noise exposure during testing. An annotated bibliography logs additional papers and resources that may be of value to analysts in other projects and disciplines.

Dose-Response Model↗

Mitigating the Impacts of Measurement Error in the Quesst Mission Community Noise Study

Beginning in 2025, the NASA Quesst mission will conduct a series of community response tests involving flyovers of the X-59 aircraft at select localities across the United States. Several waves of a longitudinal survey will be administered over approximately one month of testing in order to capture perceptual responses to low-amplitude sonic booms, or “sonic thumps”. Simultaneously, noise exposure levels will be estimated by fusing model-based predictions with measurements taken from a sparse network of monitors in the region. As one of the aims of the study is to produce a dose-response curve, a regression model relating perceptual response to noise exposure levels, it is important to acknowledge the potential attenuation bias that results from measurement error in the estimated noise exposure levels. In this presentation we review and compare several methods for dealing with measurement error in generalized linear mixed models. The methods are demonstrated on simulated data and real data collected during past NASA risk reduction studies.

measurement error↗

Dose-Response Data Collection Preparation for the NASA Quesst Mission With the X-59

Supersonic flight has the potential to cut travel times in half; however, community annoyance to sonic booms led to the ban on overland commercial supersonic flight by the Federal Aviation Administration in 1973. As part of its Quesst mission, NASA is developing the X-59 aircraft to demonstrate quiet supersonic flight and collect dose-response data to inform regulators in their efforts to establish noise standards to replace the current supersonic speed limit. This talk presents an overview of the NASA Quesst mission and poses some challenges in collecting and analyzing X-59 dose-response data. For the upcoming community flight campaign, the noise dose is the loudness of a supersonic overflight of the X-59 and the perceptual response from participants is captured via surveys after the flyover events. Establishing a relationship between noise dose and perceptual response will be a key product of these efforts.

X-59↗

NASA's Quesst Mission Status

Construction of NASA’s X-59 low-boom aircraft is nearing completion with its first flight scheduled within the next several months. The X-59 will be the low-boom noise source for a series of community noise surveys across the USA. The goal of NASA’s Quesst Mission is to collect and correlate noise and perceptual response data to low-loudness sonic booms so that the current prohibition on commercial supersonic aircraft flight overland can be reconsidered. This presentation describes the current state and future plans for the Quesst Mission and Commercial Supersonic Technology. Employment and internship opportunities for students and graduates are also outlined.

X-59↗

NASA's Quesst Mission Status

This presentation details the current status of the NASA Quesst mission with a middle and high school audience in mind. It begins with a description of the author's path to NASA and then describes basic information about sonic booms. The X-59 aircraft is introduced as the noise source for a series of community noise surveys. The web-based survey instrument is outlined, and example dose-response relationships are shown.

X-59↗

Developing Rationale for Experimental Designs Employed During Forthcoming NASA Quesst Mission Community Noise Campaigns

Since the publication of R.A. Fisher’s “The Arrangement of Field Experiments” in 1926, the enumerated principles that contributed to the improvement of agricultural field experiments in the early 20th century (randomization, replication, blocking, and appropriate variation of factors) remain hallmarks of all well-designed clinical trials and scientific endeavors in the 21st century. Beginning in 2026, NASA will conduct community noise campaigns with the first-of-kind X-59 experimental aircraft to 1) demonstrate the possibility of quiet supersonic flight over land and 2) to collect live data about annoyance (a categorical response) in relation to estimated noise levels (an experimental factor) produced by the new noise phenomenon, a low-noise “sonic thump”. The resulting predicted relationship between perceptual response and estimated noise level, e.g., mixed logistic regression or related models in the class of generalized linear (mixed) models, is believed to be a useful policy tool that domestic and international regulators can use when deciding whether existing prohibitions of supersonic flight over land can be replaced with a noise-based limit. The X-59 is engineered with the expectation that annoyance in the tested ranges should be a rare outcome, and, consequently, NASA convened an interdisciplinary team to examine and refine the rationale underlying the experimental design for future community campaigns. In this presentation, we review relevant literature on experiments with rare binary outcomes, relate the deliberations of the NASA team to tenets of good experimental design, and highlight several challenges and operational realities of this ambitious campaign.

Design of Experiments; blocking; randomization; co↗