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Performing Bayesian Analyses With AZURE2 Using BRICK: An Application to the 7 Be System

Phenomenological R-matrix has been a standard framework for the evaluation of resolved resonance cross section data in nuclear physics for many years. It is a powerful method for comparing different types of experimental nuclear data and combining the results of many different experimental measurements in order to gain a better estimation of the true underlying cross sections. Yet a practical challenge has always been the estimation of the uncertainty on both the cross sections at the energies of interest and the fit parameters, which can take the form of standard level parameters. Frequentist (χ 2 -based) estimation has been the norm. In this work, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler, emcee, has been implemented for the R-matrix code AZURE2, creating the Bayesian R-matrix Inference Code Kit (BRICK). Bayesian uncertainty estimation has then been carried out for a simultaneous R-matrix fit of the 3 He (α,γ) 7 Be and 3 He (α,α) 3 He reactions in order to gain further insight into the fitting of capture and scattering data. Both data sets constrain the values of the bound state α-particle asymptotic normalization coefficients in 7 Be. The analysis highlights the need for low-energy scattering data with well-documented uncertainty information and shows how misleading results can be obtained in its absence.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

How Bayesian methods can improve R -matrix analyses of data: The example of the d t reaction

The 3 H(d, n) 4 He reaction is of significant interest in nuclear astrophysics and nuclear applications. It is an important, early step in big-bang nucleosynthesis and a key process in nuclear fusion reactors. We use one- and two-level R-matrix approximations to analyze data on the cross section for this reaction at center-of-mass energies below 215 keV. We critically examine the data sets using a Bayesian statistical model that allows for both common-mode and additional point-to-point un- certainties. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to evaluate this R-matrix-plus-statistical model and find two-level R-matrix results that are stable with respect to variations in the channel radii. The S factor at 40 keV evaluates to 25.36(19) MeV b (68% credibility interval). We discuss our Bayesian analysis in detail and provide guidance for future applications of Bayesian methods to R-matrix analyses. We also discuss possible paths to further reduction of the S-factor uncertainty.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗