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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Data and scripts associated with “Non-random processes impacting organic matter chemistry are maximized in mid-order streams”

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the publication “Non-random processes impacting organic matter chemistry are maximized in mid-order streams” submitted to Limnology and Oceanography (L&O) by Danczak et al. (in review). This package contains data and scripts used to investigate dissolved organic matter (DOM) molecular chemistry and diversification processes across 47 surface-water sampling sites in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA, during an August 2021 sampling campaign. The package contains analyses of ultrahigh-resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS), geochemical measurements, geospatial attributes, molecular diversity, and meta-metabolome ecological null models needed to reproduce the main manuscript results. The underlying field data were pulled from exising data packages at https://doi.org/10.15485/1892052 (Fulton et al., 2022) and https://doi.org/10.15485/1898914 (Grieger et al., 2022). For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. We thank the following organizations for providing access to field locations for sample collection: the United States Forest Service, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington Department of Natural Resources, the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation, and the Cowiche Canyon Conservatory. Research was conducted under Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission Scientific Research Permit #210901. We are grateful to the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for their collaboration in facilitating sample collection and ensuring data usage aligns with their values and worldview. This data package contains an R-Markdown file for analyses and five folders: (1) Data, (2) Geospatial Data, (3) Supplemental_Files, (5) Figures_pdf, (4) and src. The Data folder contains tabular inputs and derived files used in the manuscript analysis. The Geospatial Data folder contains climate and water-balance, hydrologic, land-cover, population/regional water-use, stream, topographic, and stream-order attribute CSV files. The src folder contains scripts used to process data, run analyses, and generate figures. The Figures_pdf folder contains manuscript figure outputs. The Supplemental_Files folder contains supplemental analysis products. All files are .csv, .pdf, .html, .png, .R, .Rmd, .svg, or .tre. This data package is associated with the rcfsa-RC2-SPS_Null_Modeling repository found at https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/rcfsa-RC2-SPS_Null_Modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental quantum Bernoulli factories via Bell-basis measurements

Randomness processing in the Bernoulli factory framework provides a concrete setting in which quantum resources can outperform classical ones. We experimentally demonstrate quantum randomness processing based on Bell-basis measurements of two identical input quoins prepared on IBM superconducting hardware. Using only the measurement outcomes (and no external classical randomness source), we realize the classically inconstructible Bernoulli doubling primitive f(p)=2p, and, as intermediate outputs from the same Bell-measurement statistics, an exact fair coin f(p)=1/2 and the classically inconstructible function f(p)=4p(1−p). We benchmark the measured output biases against ideal predictions and discuss the impact of device noise. Our results establish a simple resource-efficient experimental primitive for quantum-to-classical randomness processing and support the viability of quantum Bernoulli factories for quantum-enhanced stochastic simulation and sampling tasks.

Roy, Tanay [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000019442862X)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting initial trans-membrane pressure across cycles in the ultrafiltration process using random forest

With growing freshwater scarcity, direct potable reuse (DPR) systems that reclaim wastewater for drinking are becoming increasingly important for sustainable water supply. Reliable operation requires minimizing downtime in ultrafiltration (UF) units, where membrane fouling leads to elevated trans-membrane pressure (TMP). This study develops data-driven regression models based on random forest (RF) and autoregressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial TMP at the start of each UF filtration cycle in a pilot-scale DPR system. The RF model consistently outperforms baseline methods, including historical mean, last observation carried forward, and AR models, across multiple forecast horizons, achieving the lowest root mean square error. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent input variables across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is assessed for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches. The proposed RF framework establishes a robust foundation for predictive monitoring and real-time optimization of UF operations, supporting sustainable and reliable water reuse.

direct potable reuse↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probability Density Function Control of Frequency Fluctuations in Renewable-Rich Power Systems

The stochastic nature of renewable energy sources (RESs) necessitates treating power system frequency response as a random process with a nonstationary probability density function (PDF). Here, based upon the stochastic distribution control theory originated by the second author, this paper proposes a novel stochastic controller to improve the frequency PDF in power grids when integrating a large amount of RESs, thereby minimizing the effects of uncertainties and enhancing overall system stability. The key idea is to manipulate the controllable power generation resources so that the frequency PDF is make to follow a target PDF by using the stochastic distribution control theory originated by the second author. The proposed method can easily be plugged into existing automatic generation controls for multi-area transmission grids. The proposed method is validated via a modified Kundar's two area system and 240-bus Western Electricity Coordinating Council systems. The simulation results show that the proposed control shapes the frequency PDF narrower and sharper, leading to a notable improvement toward minimizing the effects of randomness and uncertainty during grid operation.

frequency↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active Learning‐Driven Inkless Additive Nanomanufacturing for Printed Electronics

Inkless additive nanomanufacturing for printed electronics promises broad material and substrate versatility, yet the high-dimensional print parameter space makes tuning print parameters time-intensive. We present a Bayesian optimization study that constructs a digital twin from printed-silver data to benchmark surrogate models, acquisition functions, and batch sizes head-to-head to achieve user-specified target resistance. Tested surrogate models included Gaussian process, random forest, and Bayesian neural network surrogates with expected improvement and confidence bound acquisition functions. In total, we evaluate 48 unique model configurations alongside a random sampling baseline for comparison. For printed silver, the Bayesian neural network with a batch size of one achieved the lowest average cumulative regret, approximately four times more efficient on average than random sampling. To balance performance and substrate space, a random forest model with expected improvement and a batch size of four was chosen as the model for validation testing. Applying this chosen configuration to copper with an additional print parameter, the model achieved a resistance within 0.15 Ω of a 1 Ω target in fewer than 30 printed lines across five validation sets. Altogether, the workflow yields a tuned and validated model that efficiently guides experiments toward the target while simultaneously learning the parameter space.

Bevel, Colton [Auburn University, AL (United State↗
DOE OSTI2025

Voltage Probability Density Function Shaping Control Strategy Considering Grid Operational Uncertainties

It is well-known that power systems operation always affected by various uncertainties which make the bus voltage a random process that can be characterized by its probability density function (PDF) at any time instant. In this context, this paper presents a novel PDF-based voltage control framework for power systems. By modeling voltage as a stochastic process, we formulate a stochastic differential equationthat captures grid uncertainties. The associated Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation is derived to describe the evolution of the voltage PDF, which enables the formulation of a PDF-shaping control strategy. To simplify the PDF control formulation, a B-spline neural network is introduced for real-time estimation and regulation of the voltage distribution. The proposed PDF control law updates voltage references for energy storage systems and synchronous generators using real-time PDF measurements and feedback signals. The proposed method is validated on a modified Kundur’s two-area system. Simulation results demonstrate that the controller can significantly improve the voltage stability under stochastic conditions, highlighting its effectiveness in modern inverter-rich grids.

Gui, Yonghao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000250435534)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest and Gaussian Process

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity estimation requires high-resolution, site-specific solar irradiance data to account for localized variability. However, global datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), provide regional averages that fail to capture the fine-scale fluctuations critical for large-scale grid integration. This limitation is particularly relevant in the context of increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) penetration, such as rooftop PV. Additionally, it is critical to the implementation of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222, which facilitates DER participation in U.S. bulk power markets. To address this challenge, this study evaluates Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest (NNRF) and Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) models for spatiotemporal downscaling of global solar irradiance data. By leveraging historical irradiance and meteorological data, these models incorporate spatial, temporal, and feature-based correlations to enhance local irradiance predictions. The NNRF model, a machine-learning approach, prioritizes computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, while the NNGP model offers a level of interpretability and prediction uncertainty by numerically quantifying correlations and dependencies in the data. Model validation was conducted using day-ahead predictions. The results showed that the average Goodness of Fit (GoF) of the NNRF model of 90.61% across all eight sites outperformed the GoF of the NNGP of 85.88%. Additionally, the computational speed of NNRF was 2.5 times faster than the NNGP. Finally, the NNGP displayed polynomial scaling while the NNRF scaled linearly with increasing number of nearest neighbors. Additional validation of the model on five sites in Puerto Rico further confirmed the superiority of the NNRF model over the NNGP model. These findings highlight the robustness and computational efficiency of NNRF for large-scale solar irradiance downscaling, making it a strong candidate for improving PV capacity estimation and real-time electricity market integration for DERs.

Asiedu, Shadrack (ORCID:0009000646004826)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Seismic Artificial Intelligence with Uncertainty

Artificial intelligence has transformed the seismic community with deep learning models (DLMs) that are trained to complete specific tasks within workflows. However, there is still a lack of robust evaluation frameworks for evaluating and comparing DLMs. Here, we address this gap by designing an evaluation framework that jointly incorporates two crucial aspects: performance uncertainty and learning efficiency. To target these aspects, we meticulously construct the training, validation, and test splits using a clustering method tailored to seismic data and enact an expansive training design to segregate performance uncertainty arising from stochastic training processes and random data sampling. The framework’s ability to guard against misleading declarations of model superiority is demonstrated through the evaluation of PhaseNet (Zhu and Beroza, 2018), a popular seismic phase picking DLM, under three training approaches. Our framework helps practitioners choose the best model for their problem and set performance expectations by explicitly analyzing model performance with uncertainty at varying budgets of training data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum Random Walk Simulator Using Ultrafast Optical Switches

Quantum random walk processes have many intriguing applications in high energy physics including the simulation of parton shower evolution. We will present the design and initial results of a fiber loop time-bin quantum walk architecture using the hardware platform already in operation at the Fermilab Quantum Network in which the state of the photon is defined by its time-of-arrival. The fiber loop consists of an unbalanced Mach-Zehnder interferometer implemented using an ultrafast electro-optical switch. The input switch controls the photon path within the interferometer, while the output switch will direct the photon back into the interferometer or to single photon detectors to measure the probability distribution of arrival times. Depending on which path the photon takes each pass through the loop, its wave function will interfere on these optical switches similar to quantum interference on a beam splitter. This work is an important step towards utilizing real-world advantages of quantum information protocols to solve problems in high energy physics.

Cameron, Andrew [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Gaussian Process Surrogates for Optimization and Posterior Approximation via Random Exploration

This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical GP-UCB algorithm, but the additional random exploration step accelerates their convergence, nearly achieving the optimal convergence rate. Furthermore, to facilitate Bayesian inference with intractable likelihoods, we propose to utilize optimization iterates for maximum a posteriori estimation to build a Gaussian process surrogate model for the unnormalized log-posterior density. We provide bounds for the Hellinger distance between the true and the approximate posterior distributions in terms of the number of design points. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian optimization algorithms in nonconvex benchmark objective functions, in a machine learning hyperparameter tuning problem, and in a black-box engineering design problem. The effectiveness of our posterior approximation approach is demonstrated in two Bayesian inference problems for parameters of dynamical systems.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2025

S AP F LOWER : an automated tool for sap flow data preprocessing, gap-filling, and analysis using deep learning

Sap flow, a critical process in plant water use and ecosystem water cycles, is often measured using thermal dissipation probes (TDP) due to their ease of installation and continuous data collection. However, sap flow data frequently include noise, outliers, and gaps, creating challenges for analysis and requiring substantial manual processing. We developed S AP F LOWER , a tool that automates data preprocessing, model training, gap-filling, sapwood area scaling and modeling, and water use analysis. It integrates autocleaning, machine learning and deep learning models (e.g. random forest, Gaussian process regression, long short-term memory (LSTM), bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM)), and efficient workflows to process sap flow data. S AP F LOWER can remove over 90% of noisy data while preserving legitimate variations and achieve high accuracy in gap-filling based on user-determined parameters. Random forest, LSTM, and BiLSTM models reduced root mean square error to 10% or less for long-term gaps. Model training and prediction can be performed efficiently within seconds. S AP F LOWER significantly enhances the efficiency and accessibility of TDP data analysis by automating complex tasks, enabling researchers without programming expertise to employ advanced techniques. Future improvements will focus on species-specific corrections for TDP and support for additional measurement methods. S AP F LOWER is openly available on GitHub (https://github.com/JiaxinWang123/SapFlower) and Zenodo (doi: 10.5281/zenodo.13665919).

ecosystem water balance↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring the potential of using L-Band InSAR for the mapping of flooded vegetation in tropical wetlands

Wetlands play a critical role in global water and carbon cycles, yet monitoring their water extent remains difficult, particularly beneath dense vegetation. SAR-based techniques such as backscatter thresholding are limited by complex scattering mechanisms, while fully polarimetric SAR (PolSAR) data capable of detecting doublebounce scattering remain scarce. To address these challenges, this study evaluates the potential of Interferometric SAR (InSAR) for mapping water surfaces beneath vegetation, termed flooded vegetation, using the Atrato floodplain in Colombia as a case study. We develop an automated workflow combining InSAR fringe detection with local phase homogeneity analysis and random sampling of processing parameters to generate probabilistic flooded vegetation maps. Applied to ALOS PALSAR-1 L-band image pairs from 2007–2011, the workflow captures seasonal fluctuations in flooded extent ranging from 500 to 1,500 km2. Compared to other L-band SAR inundation products, the InSAR-based maps identify broader flooded areas, with ~70% agreement in pairwise comparisons. Around 84% of detections align with existing wetland inventories and seasonal changes correspond with regional hydrological indicators, including terrestrial water storage anomalies and water gauge measurements. PolSAR analysis shows that InSAR complements backscatter-based methods by detecting inundation in areas with weak double-bounce signals. These findings suggest that combining InSAR with backscatter-based methods can improve detection of flooded vegetation, which is especially relevant for the upcoming NISAR mission that will offer frequent global L-band observations.

Coastal inundation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Control over Banded Morphologies and Circular Dichroism in Chiral Halide Perovskites

Chiral halide perovskites (c-HPs) merge the chirality of organic cations with the semiconducting properties of metal halide frameworks, creating a family of chiral semiconductors with tunable chiroptoelectronic behavior. Here, we describe the impact of periodic banded morphologies of textured c-HP ( R/S -NEA) 2 PbBr 4 films (NEA = 1- (1-naphthyl)ethylammonium) on their chiroptical behavior. Due to the interplay between the crystalline and glassy phases, the c-HP film growth is driven by rhythmic precipitation, producing a distinctive controllable radial banded pattern with the ( R/S -NEA) 2 PbBr 4 inorganic planes oriented parallel to the substrate. The banded morphology can be controlled, as evidenced by the growth temperature dictating the ridge-to-ridge spacing as well as the density of banded regions. The resulting circular dichroism (CD) spectral shape, intensity, and polarity vary in a seemingly random manner across processing conditions. However, these spectral features can be explained by considering key features of the banded morphology, such as refraction of the incident light due to surface morphology, birefringence, and stacked, rotated crystallites. These effects cannot be canceled by averaging front and back CD spectra of c-HP films, and our model incorporating these effects reproduces all observed CD spectra remarkably well. The control over the c-HP morphology and prediction capabilities of our CD modeling leads to further understanding of this class of semiconductors and the possibility of exploiting structural features for light polarization control akin to enhanced metamaterials.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning for seismic low-frequency extrapolation

The cycle-skipping problem that plagues full waveform inversion (FWI) can be at least partially mitigated if low frequencies (which encode the kinematics of wave propagation in seismic data) are recorded. However, seismic sources and receivers are band-limited, so seismic data does not generally include signals down to 0 Hz. To improve our ability to solve the seismic inverse problem, one can synthesize this missing low-frequency (LF) content from the recorded high-frequency (HF) data using machine learning (ML) models. Deep learning models such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) demonstrate impressive ability to perform low frequency extrapolation. However, such models require powerful hardware (GPU machines) and careful training. We assess the extrapolation capabilities of three different ML models that do not require GPU machines, namely, random forest, Gaussian process regression and gradient boosting, on both synthetic and real data. Experimental results on two synthetic data sets (generated from a low velocity lens embedded in a homogeneous medium, and the Marmousi model) demonstrate that FWI applied to the extrapolated data consistently improves inversion accuracy relative to FWI applied to the original data sets that do not contain low frequencies. Application of low-frequency extrapolation to real data from the Northwest Shelf of Australia demonstrates that tree-based ML models such as gradient boosting can outperform CNNs in terms of both accuracy and computational cost on non-GPU architectures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Active Learning for Rapid Targeted Synthesis of Compositionally Complex Alloys

The next generation of advanced materials is tending toward increasingly complex compositions. Synthesizing precise composition is time-consuming and becomes exponentially demanding with increasing compositional complexity. An experienced human operator does significantly better than a novice but still struggles to consistently achieve precision when synthesis parameters are coupled. The time to optimize synthesis becomes a barrier to exploring scientifically and technologically exciting compositionally complex materials. This investigation demonstrates an active learning (AL) approach for optimizing physical vapor deposition synthesis of thin-film alloys with up to five principal elements. We compared AL-based on Gaussian process (GP) and random forest (RF) models. The best performing models were able to discover synthesis parameters for a target quinary alloy in 14 iterations. We also demonstrate the capability of these models to be used in transfer learning tasks. RF and GP models trained on lower dimensional systems (i.e., ternary, quarternary) show an immediate improvement in prediction accuracy compared to models trained only on quinary samples. Furthermore, samples that only share a few elements in common with the target composition can be used for model pre-training. We believe that such AL approaches can be widely adapted to significantly accelerate the exploration of compositionally complex materials.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization and prediction of the electromechanical wear of contact tips during wire arc additive manufacturing of 316L stainless steel

Here, this study seeks to better understand the degradation of the contact tip with respect to WAAM for a 316L wire electrode as well as explore methods of monitoring the contact tip state from process data. The contact tip, a consumable component, positions the wire and serves as the electrical contact surface between the wire electrode and the welding power supply. The wear of the contact tip was characterized in terms of material loss and material contamination for a set of tips worn to discrete levels as measured by the amount of wire fed or arc time. Geometrical characterization found a 49% increase in the bore exit area at 180 meters of wire fed. Machine learning models were developed to predict the relative bore exit area of the contact tip from arc-based process data and a random forest classifier exhibited favorable performance with a cross-validated f1-score of 0.84. The regression architecture implemented a multi-layer perceptron with the ability to predict the relative exit area with an $R^2$ score of 0.75. Key features used in the prediction include the standard deviation of the voltage and the time between shorts.

Contact tip wear↗