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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Unbalanced Nested Random Effects Estimation of Variance Components

To investigate the contributing factors of variance in the measurement of an iodine 127 (127I) sample, we implement a nested random effects analysis of variance (ANOVA). Historically, the reported uncertainty on a measurement of 127I has been obtained by methods of forward uncertainty propagation because there is typically only one replicate of a given sample for which to estimate the uncertainty. When samples are processed there are several types of quality control (QC) standards analyzed along-side the unknown samples with two to five replicates for each. Assuming the variance observed in these replicate QC standards is representative of that of the unknown samples, we use these data in a nested random effects ANOVA to estimate the total uncertainty of a measurement. We demonstrate this approach with two sets of measurements from Idaho National Laboratory and compare the results with the forward uncertainty propagation approach. Variance component estimates for the coarsest level of the nesting structure were most imprecise because replicates were most limited at these levels. We find that the results largely agree between forward propagation and ANOVA, and the greatest contributors of variance are due to instrument variation and chemical processing, with human processing being among the smallest contributors. This analysis provides reassurance that the reported uncertainties using forward propagation are reasonable and the process is well controlled. We propose a future designed experiment to increase replicates at the coarsest level of the hierarchy to improve estimates of these variance components.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

RatXcan: A framework for cross-species integration of genome-wide association and gene expression data

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have implicated specific alleles and genes as risk factors for numerous complex traits. However, translating GWAS results into biologically and therapeutically meaningful discoveries remains extremely challenging. Most GWAS results identify noncoding regions of the genome, suggesting that differences in gene regulation are the major driver of trait variability. To better integrate GWAS results with gene regulatory polymorphisms, we previously developed PrediXcan (also known as “transcriptome-wide association studies” orTWAS), which maps SNPs to predicted gene expression using GWAS data. In this study, we developed RatXcan, a framework that extends this methodology to outbred heterogeneous stock (HS) rats. RatXcan accounts for the close familial relationships among HS rats by modeling the relatedness with a random effect that encodes the genetic relatedness. RatXcan also corrects for polygenic-driven inflation because of the equivalence between a relatedness random effect and the infinitesimal polygenic model. To develop RatXcan, we trained transcript predictors for 8,934 genes using reference genotype and expression data from five rat brain regions. We found that the cis genetic architecture of gene expression in both rats and humans was sparse and similar across brain tissues. We tested the association between predicted expression in rats and two example traits (body length and BMI) using phenotype and genotype data from 5,401 densely genotyped HS rats and identified a significant enrichment between the genes associated with rat and human body length and BMI. Thus, RatXcan represents a valuable tool for identifying the relationship between gene expression and phenotypes across species and paves the way to explore shared biological mechanisms of complex traits.

Genetics & Heredity↗

Effect of random antiferromagnetic exchange on the spin waves in a three-dimensional Heisenberg ferromagnet

Neutron scattering is used to study spin waves in the three-dimensional Heisenberg ferromagnet YTiO 3 , with spin-spin exchange disorder introduced via La substitution at the Y site. No significant changes are observed in the spin-wave dispersion up to a La concentration of 20%. However, a strong broadening of the spectrum is found, indicative of shortened spin-wave lifetimes. Density-functional theory calculations predict minimal changes in exchange constants as a result of average structural changes due to La substitution, in agreement with the data. The absence of significant changes in the spin-wave dispersion, the considerable lifetime effect, and the reduced ordered magnetic moment previously observed in the La-substituted system are qualitatively captured by an isotropic, nearest-neighbor, three-dimensional Furthermore, Heisenberg ferromagnet model with random antiferromagnetic exchange. We therefore establish Y 1-$x$ La $x$ TiO 3 as a model system for the study of antiferromagnetic spin-exchange disorder in a three-dimensional Heisenberg ferromagnet.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Data driven investigation to understand the influence of total solids on biological biogas upgrading

In situ biogas upgrading achieves CO 2 conversion to CH 4 via hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis; however, gas-liquid mass transfer constraints limit the upgrading performance. Recognizing that optimization studies often underrepresent the effects of total solids (TS) and organic loading rate (OLR), this study undertook a holistic, statistics driven assessment of operating conditions for in situ H 2 assisted biogas upgrading, centering the analysis on TS and OLR. A dataset of 31 studies was compiled and comprised 99 observations. A rigorous analytical framework was employed, combining data standardization, fixed- and random-effects (REML) weighted regressions with cluster-robust errors, stratified analyses, and machine learning. Mixed-effects meta regression indicated that TS was the main factor explaining differences of methane fraction (CH 4 %) when considering the between studies heterogeneity. Focusing on a near-stoichiometric subset (H 2 /CO 2 ≈ 4:1), TS remained significant. Stratified results showed a stronger negative relationship between TS and CH 4 % in UASB reactors than in CSTRs, with a negative effect under mesophilic conditions and no significant effect under thermophilic conditions. A Random Forest model corroborated the statistical findings, consistently ranking H 2 /CO 2 ratio, OLR, TS, and hydrogen injection rate (HIR) as the most influential predictors. These findings delineate trends across increasing TS levels, particularly between 1% and 10%, and provide preliminary insights for TS above 15% in in situ biogas upgrading. They further provide insights for the influence of TS by reactor type and temperature, thereby advancing the evidence base for implementing biological CO 2 conversion to CH 4 in practice.

In situ biogas upgrading↗

Caught in headlights: Captive white-tailed deer responses to variations in vehicle lighting during imminent collision scenarios

Vehicle collisions with deer (Odocoileus spp.) cause billions of dollars in damages and injure thousands of drivers every year in the United States, and few mitigation methods have proven effective. However, recent research suggests that vehicle lighting might influence white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus; hereafter, deer) responses to oncoming vehicles. Most new vehicles are manufactured with light emitting diode (LED) headlights which differ in total radiance and wavelength of light emitted compared to the previous industry standard of tungstenhalogen (halogen) headlights. Also, frontal vehicle illumination through rear-facing lighting has shown promise in enhancing deer responses to vehicles, but its effectiveness has not been tested under various headlight conditions (headlight type or intensity). As such, it remains unclear how these aspects of vehicle lighting affect deer responses to an approaching vehicle. We used 23 captive, wild-type deer to investigate how variations in vehicle lighting affect deer responses to an approaching vehicle at night, when most collisions occur. We released deer into a 95 m long, 3 m wide chute and approached them from the opposite end with an electric golf cart outfitted with two versions of stock 2017–2020 Ford Fusion headlights (LED and halogen) and a 51 cm rear-facing lightbar to test how vehicle lighting affected deer avoidance behaviors in an imminent, head-on collision scenario. Each deer received eight lighting treatments consisting of unique combinations of headlight type (LED vs. halogen), light intensity (low vs. high beam), and rear-facing lighting (lightbar off vs. on). We measured deer alert and flight behavior using infrared videography. We found that the halogen, high beam, lightbar off treatment had the greatest probability of evoking an alert response. Furthermore, when the lightbar was off, high beams appeared to increase alert probability for halogen headlights. Also, we found evidence that high beam, halogen headlights tend to increase alert probability over high beam, LED headlights, when the lighbar was off. We found no effect of our lighting treatments on deer alert distance, flight probability, or flight initiation distance. Across all behavioral responses, the random effect deer ID explained 0.86–9.19 × more variation than our lighting treatments, reflecting large differences in responses among deer. Overall, we found that vehicle lighting can impact deer behavior during an imminent, head-on collision scenario, although lighting was ineffective at increasing favorable flight behaviors. Future research should investigate how vehicle lighting treatments affect free-ranging, wild deer in a variety of real-world scenarios and at longer approach distances.

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) Deer be↗

Meta-analysis of biogas upgrading to renewable natural gas through biological CO 2 conversion

Biogas upgrading through CO 2 conversion by hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis is receiving an increasing attention worldwide because of the demand for renewable natural gas. Herein, a holistic and statistical study of the operation conditions, driving forces, performances, and potential implementation of biogas upgrading via biological CO 2 conversion was conducted. Based on a systematic review and meta-analysis of 46 existing publications that were selected from 1475 papers, we have compiled a global dataset of CO 2 bioconversion biogas upgrading, encompassing 308 study cases. Subsequently, we employed a rigorous analytical framework incorporating data processing and mixed effects linear regression analysis to examine the dataset. This analysis revealed a significant positive relationship between the H 2 :CO 2 ratio and the methane percentage in the upgraded biogas when using the study as a random effect. Furthermore, we performed meta-analysis on observations taken when the ratio was close to 4:1 and found that ex situ reactors (91.93% [88.11%, 95.75%]) can perform better than in situ reactors (84.74% [80.69%, 88.80%]). No evidence of differential performance was found based on the present dataset between different temperature regimes or operation modes. Furthermore, those findings establish a database that will contribute to a deeper understanding of the biogas upgrading via biological CO 2 conversion.

Biogas upgrading↗

Fast estimation of the look-elsewhere effect using Gaussian random fields

Abstract We discuss the use of Gaussian random fields to estimate the look-elsewhere effect correction. We show that Gaussian random fields can be used to model the null-hypothesis significance maps from a large set of statistical problems commonly encountered in physics, such as template matching and likelihood ratio tests. Some specific examples are searches for dark matter using pixel arrays, searches for astronomical transients, and searches for fast-radio bursts. Gaussian random fields can be sampled efficiently in the frequency domain, and the excursion probability can be fitted with these samples to extend any estimation of the look-elsewhere effect to lower p values. In addition, in cases where the Gaussian random field is stationary and the parameter space is Euclidean, the look-elsewhere effect correction can be computed analytically. We demonstrate these methods using two example template matching problems. Finally, we apply these methods to estimate the trial factor of a $$4^3$$ 4 3 accelerometer array for the detection of dark matter tracks in the Windchime project. When a global significance of $$3\sigma $$ 3 σ is required, the estimated trial factor for such an accelerometer array is $$10^{14}$$ 10 14 for a one-second search, and $$10^{22}$$ 10 22 for a 1-year search.

Qin, Juehang (ORCID:0000000182288949)↗

TRIM: AI Guided Random Number Generation for Resource-Constrained IoT Systems

Random numbers often serve as the backbone for many security solutions in diverse domains such as cryptography, side channel leakage prevention, and moving target defense. However, generating true random numbers requires a physical source of entropy (e.g. hardware, quantum, environmental phenomenon) making it difficult to realize at a large scale and at a low cost. On the flip side, pseudorandom number generators (easy to implement) following a specific distribution (e.g. Gaussian) can be easily compromised given a sufficient amount of traces. In this work, we have developed a machine learning-guided generative approach that can be used to create portable, resource-efficient, and cost-effective random number generators with high throughput and true randomness characteristics. We implement the proposed approach as a highly parameterized framework and perform extensive evaluation for different settings. The framework was able to learn from true random sources such as irrational numbers and environmental audio noise and imitate those sources towards generating new good quality random numbers on demand. We have generated more than 1 billion bits and observed robust performance in terms of true randomness metrics obtained from NIST SP 800-22 and FIPS 140-1 randomness test suites achieving a throughput of up to 142.85 Mbps. Compared to the state-of-the-art (SOTA) technique, the iso-cost setup of our framework can achieve more than 500 Mbps in a distributed setting. We have evaluated the efficacy of running the true randomness imitation AI models on target edge devices such as Raspberry Pi 4 (Model B), Nvidia Jetson Nano, Nvidia Jetson Orin Nano and Nvidia Jetson Xavier. We have also looked at the security of the TRIM framework itself against different adversarial threat models.

Cybersecurity↗

Disorder-induced local strain distribution in Y-substituted TmVO 4

We report an investigation of the effect of substitution of Y for Tm in Tm 1-x ⁢Y x VO 4 via low-temperature heat capacity measurements, with the yttrium content x varying from 0 to 0.997. Because the Tm ions support a local quadrupolar (nematic) moment, they act as reporters of the local strain state in the material, with the splitting of the ion's non-Kramers crystal field ground state proportional to the quadrature sum of the in-plane tetragonal symmetry-breaking transverse and longitudinal strains experienced by each ion individually. Analysis of the heat capacity, therefore, provides detailed insights into the distribution of local strains that arise as a consequence of the chemical substitution. These local strains suppress long-range quadrupole order for x > 0.22, and result in a broad Schottky-like feature for higher concentrations. Heat capacity data are compared to expectations for a distribution of uncorrelated (random) strains. For dilute Tm concentrations, the heat capacity cannot be accounted for by randomly distributed strains, demonstrating the presence of significant strain correlations between sites. For intermediate Tm concentrations, these correlations must still exist, but the data cannot be distinguished from that which would be obtained from a two-dimensional Gaussian distribution. The crossover between these limits is discussed in terms of the interplay of key lengthscales in the substituted material. Furthermore, the central result of this work, namely that local strains arising from chemical substitution are not uncorrelated, has implications for the range of validity of theoretical models based on random effective fields that are used to describe such chemically substituted materials, particularly when electronic nematic correlations are present.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Multi-phenomenology Yield Characterization

This report serves as the first delivery of a four-year applied science effort to transform and advance the error bounds for the yield estimate of an explosion. Each year’s delivery will be in this form, culminating in the submission of this work for peer review to a scientific journal. Importantly, the yearly progress reports can then also be viewed as expanding drafts working towards a formal journal article submission. For the first tranche of funding, we collaborated with Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) scientists to identify unclassified real-world data that demonstrate and validate our advanced error propagation methods. Collaboration includes visits to AFTAC and telecons. For this development, we illustrate the fusion of seismic, acoustic, optical, and surface effect signatures from an explosion. The mathematics and code being adapted to this specific application (Williams et al., 2021) involves physics models of multiple sensor signatures. We have also identified related physics models and have integrated them into code. Current methods of underground explosion yield estimation for the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) have served the US treaty monitoring mission well for decades. A research objective of the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) office of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has always been to provide new technical capabilities for monitoring lower thresholds. The general model and error propagation code to be developed in this project is based on significant advances in error modeling and propagation needed to analyze data at lower detection thresholds. The second tranche of funding for this project began on May 1, 2022, and planned work for the second tranche includes: i) completing the integration of physical model code into the general error model framework; this code accommodates a wide range of linear/nonlinear source models, fixed/ random effects, and frequentist/Bayesian analyses (the purpose of which is not to dictate to users how to analyze data, but instead to allow users the maximum flexibility in their work); ii) illustrative application of code to identified data, and; iii) initial planning with AFTAC researchers on delivery of code to the Common Development Environment at AFTAC, and continued writing of the planned final journal article submission (year two of this progress report), with particular emphasis on descriptions of data identified for this effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Combining field and remote sensing data to estimate forest canopy damage and recovery following tropical cyclones across tropical regions

Abstract As tropical forests cycle the most water and carbon, it is crucial to understand the short- and long-term effects of intensifying cyclones on these ecosystems. Soil nutrient status has been shown to moderate forest cyclone responses using field litterfall measurements, but litterfall is one of the multiple cyclone impact metrtics, which may or may not be correlated with one another or with site nutrients. We used remotely sensed vegetation indices to quantify immediate damage and two-year recovery for 42 cases across nine tropical forests in Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Mexico, Australia, and Taiwan affected by 12 cyclones between 2004 and 2017. We tested whether changes in leaf area index (LAI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) correlated with changes in litterfall observations and how changes varied with total soil phosphorus (P) concentrations across regions. We compared cyclone-induced changes and recovery of LAI and EVI to litterfall observations compiled in a pantropical meta-analysis. We found large variation in changes in LAI and EVI across forests, with the greatest reductions in LAI (−77%) and EVI (−77%) in Mexico (Jalisco) and Puerto Rico, respectively. LAI ( r = −0.52) and EVI ( r = −0.60) changes correlated with those in litterfall across cases. Post-cyclone data showed recovery of LAI by four months, EVI by two months, and litterfall by ten months. We detected larger changes in LAI and EVI in forests with higher soil P, but these relationships were not significant when accounting for cyclone and site as random effects. Principal component analyses indicated a regional clustering of cases related to their contrasting cyclone regimes, with the frequency and intensity of cyclone events negatively correlated. Overall, remote sensing observations complement but do not substitute for ground observations that reveal cyclone damage and post-cyclone recovery in tropical forests, and soil phosphorus moderates some but not all metrics of stability in response to cyclones.

Bloom, Dellena E. (ORCID:0000000205981747)↗

Prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes , Salmonella spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli , and Campylobacter spp. in raw milk in the United States between 2000 and 2019: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Raw (unpasteurized) milk is available for sale and direct human consumption within some states in the United States (US); it cannot be sold or distributed in interstate commerce. Raw milk may contain pathogenic microorganisms that, when consumed, may cause illness and sometimes may result in death. No comprehensive review for prevalence and levels of the major bacterial pathogens in raw milk in the US exists. The objective of the present research was to systematically review the scientific literature published from 2000 to 2019 to estimate the prevalence and levels of Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), and Campylobacter spp. in raw milk in the US. Peer-reviewed studies were retrieved systematically from PubMed®, Embase®, and Web of ScienceTM. The unique complete nonduplicate references were uploaded into the Health Assessment Work Collaborative (HAWC). Based on the selection criteria, twenty studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) was used for statistical analyses, specifically, random effects meta-analyses were used to synthesize raw bulk tank milk (BTM) and milk filters (MF) data. Data from studies using culture and non–culture-based detection methods were included. Forest plots generated in CMA (Biostat, Englewood, NJ) were used to visualize the results. The average prevalence (event rate) of L. monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., STEC, and Campylobacter spp. in raw BTM in the US was estimated at 4.3% (95% confidence intervals [CIs], 2.8–6.5%), 3.6% (95% CIs, 2.0–6.2%), 4.3% (95% CIs, 2.4–7.4%), and 6.0% (95% CIs, 3.2–10.9%), respectively. Estimated prevalence was generally larger in MF than in BTM. There was not enough data to perform a meta-analysis for the prevalence or levels of pathogens in raw milk from retail establishments or other milk categories.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

State-Level Trends in Renewable Energy Procurement via Solar Installation versus Green Electricity

In recent years, options for procuring renewable energy have increased, ranging from rooftop solar installation to utility green pricing to Community Choice Aggregation. These options vary in terms of costs and benefits to the consumer as well as grid integration implications. However, little is known regarding how the presence of a wide range of voluntary utility-scale renewable procurement options as well as their growth could affect adoption of distributed residential solar. To examine this relationship, we fit a two-stage least squares random effects regression model on panel data from 2016 to 2019 for all fifty US states plus the District of Columbia, controlling for variables that measure state-level policies, economic factors, and resource availability. Although there was no evidence of a strong relationship between demand for utility-scale and distributed options across all states, the state-level correlations suggest a wide variation between states including a positive, zero or negative relationship between utility-scale and distributed generation.

consumer demand↗

Coupling Shared E-scooters and Public Transit: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis

The integration of shared e-scooters with public transit is a promising solution for urban mobility's first/last-mile challenge. This study explores spatiotemporal factors influencing this integration, using 35-day e-scooter trip data from Chicago. Employing a random-effect negative binomial approach, we modeled the frequency of e-scooter trips to access/egress to/from bus stops and train stations. Results indicate that weather conditions, design features like intersection density, and multimodal network density significantly influence usage. The transit system characteristics such as service frequency have a positive effect on the integration of e-scooters and trains while a similar effect for bus and e-scooter integration was not significant. Furthermore, safety-related variables such as accident and crime rates as well as demographic characteristics were also revealed to be significant factors in our study. These findings offer vital insights to urban planners and policymakers for infrastructure, safety enhancements, and interventions to encourage efficient e-scooter-public transit integration.

Chicago↗

Joint Resource Modeling and Assessment for Hybrid Distributed Solar and Wind Systems

The inherent variability and uncertainty in distributed energy resources can presents myriad challenges to the planning and operations of power systems. These risks are poised to become larger as the penetration of renewable energy sources rises in the power generation mix. Hybrid solar-wind energy systems are able to mitigate some of these risks by their complementary resource availability. Surface solar and wind fields are coupled and correlated in both space and time. Appropriately estimating the hybrid solar wind energy system requires simulating the spatio-temporal structure of these fields that can be produced for each time horizon. We introduce a novel joint spatio-temporal stochastic differential equation (SPDE) approach that captures the spatio-temporal dynamics of solar and wind fields and their joint dependency over a domain for each time step. In the case study on Colorado, we consider nonstationary three-level hierarchical spatio temporal models for both hourly solar irradiance data and wind speed data in Colorado. Dependence between the solar irradiance data and wind speed data is captured by a shared spatio-temporal random effect. Our approach performs well in terms of the prediction score criterion.

joint modeling↗

Structure-informed clustering for population stratification in association studies

Background: Identifying variants associated with complex traits is a challenging task in genetic association studies due to linkage disequilibrium (LD) between genetic variants and population stratification, unrelated to the disease risk. Existing methods of population structure correction use principal component analysis or linear mixed models with a random effect when modeling associations between a trait of interest and genetic markers. However, due to stringent significance thresholds and latent interactions between the markers, these methods often fail to detect genuinely associated variants. Results: To overcome this, we propose CluStrat, which corrects for complex arbitrarily structured populations while leveraging the linkage disequilibrium induced distances between genetic markers. It performs an agglomerative hierarchical clustering using the Mahalanobis distance covariance matrix of the markers. In simulation studies, we show that our method outperforms existing methods in detecting true causal variants. Applying CluStrat on WTCCC2 and UK Biobank cohorts, we found biologically relevant associations in Schizophrenia and Myocardial Infarction. CluStrat was also able to correct for population structure in polygenic adaptation of height in Europeans. Conclusions: CluStrat highlights the advantages of biologically relevant distance metrics, such as the Mahalanobis distance, which captures the cryptic interactions within populations in the presence of LD better than the Euclidean distance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Potential Ergonomic Injury Risk in the Nuclear Material Processing Glovebox Environment [Capstone Project]

Gloveboxes are isolation barriers that are used within many different industries such as pharmaceuticals, electronic parts fabrication, nuclear, and biological. The research on glovebox ergonomics is currently limited with few ergonomic professionals that focusing exclusively on glovebox working environments. There is existing documentation on occupational injuries, such as musculoskeletal disorders (MSD), sustained as a direct result of working in gloveboxes. The main elements that pose ergonomic risks to glovebox workers are operational repetition, duration, force, vibration, lifting heavy (more than 15lbs with two hands) objects, and awkward postures. This paper examines a small sample of the potential causal or risk factors that lead to the ergonomic injuries. A meta-analysis utilizing a random effect model is used to examine data from several studies which focus on, dexterity and strength changes as result of glove thickness, and robotic assistive technology as a means to improve postural mechanics. With the meta-analysis technique, similar data sets from different research studies can be coalesced into a single weighted, statistically significant result for subsequent consideration. The results from the analysis show that increased glove thickness results in decreased dexterity for operators thus increasing ergonomic risk factors such as task duration. It is also shown that glove thickness decreases grip strength but a similar decrease in pinch strength is not definitively demonstrated. With decreased grip strength, operators will need to exert more force (a known ergonomic risk factor) on processing tools, etc. during operations thus increasing the risk of ergonomic injury. The use of robotic assistive technology as a means to improve operator posture (risk factor) was also examined. Although it may be intuitively assumed that human-robotic collaboration would be beneficial in reducing risk factors, the result from this study’s analysis was not statistically significant. It is inferred that with additional directed research on this topic another study/analysis could be statistically significant demonstrating the benefits of the technology.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Tools for Water Ingress Testing

The Safety Storage and Engineering Team, as part of the Production Support Services division (PSS-2), is tasked with ensuring the safety of containers used for handling and storage of nuclear materials. As part of this work, water ingress tests are conducted to evaluate the water-tightness of containers intended for in-glovebox use. In collaboration, the statistics group of the Computer and Computational Sciences Division (CCS-6) provided support in developing a statistically defensible approach for determining appropriate sample sizes for water ingress testing. Water ingress testing involves multiple measurements on multiple containers. Our approach uses a simple random effects model to analyze a pilot data set, implementing prediction limits to evaluate the efficacy of collecting additional data. Although this study capitalizes on available data, our approach can be used with estimates of the ratio of between and within variability and average values, often available from past testing or expert knowledge. An interactive Shiny tool was developed as a final user-friendly product for future testing. The Shiny interface is an open-source package providing a framework for building web applications. Raw data exploration and prediction interval-based sample size assessments can quickly be conducted by the engineering team without needing to interact with the underlying code.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗