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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Learning electric vehicle driver range anxiety with an initial state of charge-oriented gradient boosting approach

This manuscript focuses on the modeling of electric vehicle (EV) driver’s range anxiety, a fear that a vehicle does not have sufficient range, or state of charge (SOC) of the battery pack, to reach its destination and would strand its occupants. Despite numerous research studies on the modeling of charging behaviors, modeling efforts to understand at what battery percentages do EV drivers charge their vehicles, and what are the associated contributing factors, are rather limited. To this end, an ensemble learning model based on gradient boosting is developed. The model sequentially fits new predictors to new residuals of the previous prediction and, then, minimizes the loss when adding the latest prediction. A total of 18 features are defined and extracted from the multisource data, which cover information on driver, vehicles, stations, traffic conditions, as well as spatial-temporal context information of the charging events. The analyzed dataset includes 4.5-year’s charging event log data from 3,096 users and 468 public charging stations in Kansas City Missouri, and the macroscopic travel demand model maintained by the metropolitan planning organization. Here, the result shows the proposed model achieved a satisfactory result with a R square value of 0.54 and root mean square error of 0.14, both better than multiple linear regression model and random forest model. To reduce range anxiety, it is suggested that the priorities of deploying new charging facilities should be given to the areas with higher daily traffic prediction, with more conservative EV users or that are further from residential areas.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

When do short-range atomistic machine-learning models fall short?

In this work, we explore the role of long-range interactions in atomistic machine-learning models by analyzing the effects on fitting accuracy, isolated cluster properties, and bulk thermodynamic properties. Such models have become increasingly popular in molecular simulations given their ability to learn highly complex and multi-dimensional interactions within a local environment; however, many of them fundamentally lack a description of explicit long-range interactions. In order to provide a well-defined benchmark system with precisely known pairwise interactions, we chose as the reference model a flexible version of the Extended Simple Point Charge (SPC/E) water model. Our analysis shows that while local representations are sufficient for predictions of the condensed liquid phase, the short-range nature of machine-learning models falls short in representing cluster and vapor phase properties. These findings provide an improved understanding of the role of long-range interactions in machine learning models and the regimes where they are necessary.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantitative three-dimensional imaging of chemical short-range order via machine learning enhanced atom probe tomography

Abstract Chemical short-range order (CSRO) refers to atoms of specific elements self-organising within a disordered crystalline matrix to form particular atomic neighbourhoods. CSRO is typically characterized indirectly, using volume-averaged or through projection microscopy techniques that fail to capture the three-dimensional atomistic architectures. Here, we present a machine-learning enhanced approach to break the inherent resolution limits of atom probe tomography enabling three-dimensional imaging of multiple CSROs. We showcase our approach by addressing a long-standing question encountered in body-centred-cubic Fe-Al alloys that see anomalous property changes upon heat treatment. We use it to evidence non-statistical B 2 -CSRO instead of the generally-expected D0 3 -CSRO. We introduce quantitative correlations among annealing temperature, CSRO, and nano-hardness and electrical resistivity. Our approach is further validated on modified D0 3 -CSRO detected in Fe-Ga. The proposed strategy can be generally employed to investigate short/medium/long-range ordering phenomena in different materials and help design future high-performance materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning a Simple Interpretable Short-Range Potential for Silica

A wide array of models, spanning from computationally expensive ab initio methods to a spectrum of force-field approaches, have been developed and employed to probe silica polymorphs and understand growth processes and atomic-level dynamical transitions in silica. However, the quest for a model capable of making accurate predictions with high computational efficiency for various silica polymorphs is still ongoing. Recent developments in short-range machine-learned models, such as GAP and NNPScan, have shown promise in providing reasonable descriptions of silica, but their computational cost remains high compared to force fields such as BKS which are based on simple interpretable functional forms. Here, in this study, we build on the recent success of our reinforcement learning (RL) workflow to derive a new set of optimal parameters for a promising short-range BKS-based model proposed by Soules. We use RL to navigate the eight-dimensional parameter space of the Soules potential using an experimental training data set that includes both local and global structural features from approximately 21 experimentally realized silica polymorphs, including high density phases and porous zeolites. We compare the performance of our machine-learned ML-Soules model with other high quality models including our recent machine-learned parametrization of BKS (ML-BKS), a machine-learned potential (GAP), as well as predictions of ab initio calculations with the highly fidelity SCAN functional. The ML-Soules accurately captures the relative energetic ordering of various polymorphs as well as their structural features at a significantly reduced computational expense. The ML-Soules model also reasonably captures the structure, density, and elastic constants of quartz, as well as metastable silica polymorphs. We further discuss the limitations of the Soules functional form and propose potential enhancements, including the incorporation of additional three-body terms and/or the utilization of different short-ranged functional forms to achieve greater accuracy for both global and local features in the modeling of silica while retaining low computational cost.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Universal Augmentation Framework for Long-Range Electrostatics in Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials

Most current machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) rely on short-range approximations, without explicit treatment of long-range electrostatics. To address this, we recently developed the Latent Ewald Summation (LES) method, which infers electrostatic interactions, polarization, and Born effective charges (BECs), just by learning from energy and force training data. Here, in this study, we present LES as a standalone library, compatible with any short-range MLIP, and demonstrate its integration with methods such as MACE, NequIP, Allegro, CACE, CHGNet, and UMA. We benchmark LES-enhanced models on distinct systems, including bulk water, polar dipeptides, and gold dimer adsorption on defective substrates, and show that LES not only captures correct electrostatics but also improves accuracy. Additionally, we scale LES to large and chemically diverse data by training MACELES-OFF on the SPICE set containing molecules and clusters, making a universal MLIP with electrostatics for organic systems, including biomolecules. MACELES-OFF is more accurate than its short-range counterpart (MACE-OFF) trained on the same data set, predicts dipoles and BECs reliably, and has better descriptions of bulk liquids. By enabling efficient long-range electrostatics without directly training on electrical properties, LES paves the way for electrostatic foundation MLIPs.

Kim, Dongjin [University of California, Berkeley, ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of an ab initio learned model of electron deposition range in deuterium-tritium plasmas through time-dependent density functional theory calculations and machine learning

Accurate hydrodynamic modeling for laser-direct-drive (LDD) inertial-confinement-fusion (ICF) relies on precise calculations of the electron thermal conduction in all target materials. The nonlocal stopping range of electrons in ICF plasmas directly influences thermal conduction; yet, no first principles model exists for the electron mean free path in the conduction-zone regime. This work utilized time-dependent stochastic density-functional theory (TD-sDFT) to calculate the electron stopping power in deuterium-tritium (DT) plasmas at (ρ, T) conditions relevant to the conduction zone and the compressed shell in ICF. Using a combination of our TD-sDFT data and already established analytical models, we developed and trained an artificial neural network to create a global model for the nonlocal electron deposition range, λ E . We compared our machine-learning (ML) based model for λ E to the currently-used modified-Lee-More model in LDD radiation-hydrodynamic codes, such as lilac, and saw an overall decrease in the deposition range. To understand the effects of λ E on LDD ICF implosion dynamics, we implemented the ML-based model into lilac; specifically, we looked at designs consistent with a current experiment on the OMEGA laser and for a newly designed LDD-ICF target for the future OMEGA-Next facility. In both cases, we saw an overall drop in predicted ablation pressure, peak areal density, and neutron yield due to the reduced thermal conduction (smaller λ E ) in DT plasmas. Comparisons with the experiment on OMEGA are also made.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning of a Short-Range Bond-Order Potential for Silica: Analytic Embedding of Coordination with Classical Efficiency

Reinforcement learning (RL) has recently emerged as a data-efficient strategy to parametrize short-range interatomic potentials. Building on our past RL optimization of pairwise silica models, we extend the framework to a bond-order (Tersoff-type) potential that provides an analytic embedding of local coordination through a three-body term. A hierarchical RL workflow combining continuous-action Monte Carlo Tree Search and property-based rewards efficiently explores the 26-dimensional parameter space, sequentially optimizing lattice parameters, densities, angles, and cohesive energies of 21 silica polymorphs. The resulting models, Q-Tersoff and ML-Tersoff, reproduce the energetic ordering of low-energy phases and capture the angular correlations and amorphous structure factors of silica with improved fidelity over pairwise force fields, while remaining orders of magnitude faster than high-dimensional machine-learned potentials. Both models underperform for elastic constants and high-energy frameworks, delineating the limits of the current analytic form. The approach establishes a general and interpretable route to angle-aware, short-range potentials that bridge physics-based and machine-learned descriptions of silicate materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep learning approaches for neural decoding across architectures and recording modalities

Decoding behavior, perception or cognitive state directly from neural signals is critical for brain–computer interface research and an important tool for systems neuroscience. In the last decade, deep learning has become the state-of-the-art method in many machine learning tasks ranging from speech recognition to image segmentation. The success of deep networks in other domains has led to a new wave of applications in neuroscience. In this article, we review deep learning approaches to neural decoding. Here, we describe the architectures used for extracting useful features from neural recording modalities ranging from spikes to functional magnetic resonance imaging. Furthermore, we explore how deep learning has been leveraged to predict common outputs including movement, speech and vision, with a focus on how pretrained deep networks can be incorporated as priors for complex decoding targets like acoustic speech or images. Deep learning has been shown to be a useful tool for improving the accuracy and flexibility of neural decoding across a wide range of tasks, and we point out areas for future scientific development.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Autotune E+ Building Energy Models

This paper introduces a novel Autotune methodology under development for calibrating building energy models (BEM). It is aimed at developing an automated BEM tuning methodology that enables models to reproduce measured data such as utility bills, sub-meter, and/or sensor data accurately and robustly by selecting best-match E+ input parameters in a systematic, automated, and repeatable fashion. The approach is applicable to a building retrofit scenario and aims to quantify the trade-offs between tuning accuracy and the minimal amount of ground truth data required to calibrate the model. Autotune will use a suite of machine-learning algorithms developed and run on supercomputers to generate calibration functions. Specifically, the project will begin with a de-tuned model and then perform Monte Carlo simulations on the model by perturbing the uncertain parameters within permitted ranges. Machine learning algorithms will then extract minimal perturbation combinations that result in modeled results that most closely track sensor data. A large database of parametric EnergyPlus (E+) simulations has been made publicly available. Autotune is currently being applied to a heavily instrumented residential building as well as three light commercial buildings in which a de-tuned model is autotuned using faux sensor data from the corresponding target E+ model.

automatic calibration↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning Classification of Cheatgrass Invasion in the Western United States Using Biophysical and Remote Sensing Data

Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) invasion is driving an emerging cycle of increased fire frequency and irreversible loss of wildlife habitat in the western US. Yet, detailed spatial information about its occurrence is still lacking for much of its presumably invaded range. Deep learning (DL) has demonstrated success for remote sensing applications but is less tested on more challenging tasks like identifying biological invasions using sub-pixel phenomena. We compare two DL architectures and the more conventional Random Forest and Logistic Regression methods to improve upon a previous effort to map cheatgrass occurrence at >2% canopy cover. High-dimensional sets of biophysical, MODIS, and Landsat-7 ETM+ predictor variables are also compared to evaluate different multi-modal data strategies. All model configurations improved results relative to the case study and accuracy generally improved by combining data from both sensors with biophysical data. Cheatgrass occurrence is mapped at 30 m ground sample distance (GSD) with an estimated 78.1% accuracy, compared to 250-m GSD and 71% map accuracy in the case study. Furthermore, DL is shown to be competitive with well-established machine learning methods in a limited data regime, suggesting it can be an effective tool for mapping biological invasions and more broadly for multi-modal remote sensing applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Deep Learning Identifies High-$z$ Galaxies in a Central Blue Nugget Phase in a Characteristic Mass Range

We use machine learning to identify in color images of high-redshift galaxies an astrophysical phenomenon predicted by cosmological simulations. This phenomenon, called the blue nugget (BN) phase, is the compact star-forming phase in the central regions of many growing galaxies that follows an earlier phase of gas compaction and is followed by a central quenching phase. We train a convolutional neural network (CNN) with mock "observed" images of simulated galaxies at three phases of evolution— pre-BN, BN, and post-BN—and demonstrate that the CNN successfully retrieves the three phases in other simulated galaxies. We show that BNs are identified by the CNN within a time window of ~0.15 Hubble times. When the trained CNN is applied to observed galaxies from the CANDELS survey at $z$ = 1–3, it successfully identifies galaxies at the three phases. We find that the observed BNs are preferentially found in galaxies at a characteristic stellar mass range, 10 9.2–10.3 $M_⊙$ at all redshifts. This is consistent with the characteristic galaxy mass for BNs as detected in the simulations and is meaningful because it is revealed in the observations when the direct information concerning the total galaxy luminosity has been eliminated from the training set. This technique can be applied to the classification of other astrophysical phenomena for improved comparison of theory and observations in the era of large imaging surveys and cosmological simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accurate prediction of global-density-dependent range-separation parameters based on machine learning

In this work, we develop an accurate and efficient XGBoost machine learning model for predicting the global-density-dependent range-separation parameter, ωGDD, for long-range corrected functional (LRC)-ωPBE. This ωGDDML model has been built using a wide range of systems (11 466 complexes, ten different elements, and up to 139 heavy atoms) with fingerprints for the local atomic environment and histograms of distances for the long-range atomic correlation for mapping the quantum mechanical range-separation values. The promising performance on the testing set with 7046 complexes shows a mean absolute error of 0.001 117 a0−1 and only five systems (0.07%) with an absolute error larger than 0.01 a0−1, which indicates the good transferability of our ωGDDML model. In addition, the only required input to obtain ωGDDML is the Cartesian coordinates without electronic structure calculations, thereby enabling rapid predictions. LRC-ωPBE(ωGDDML) is used to predict polarizabilities for a series of oligomers, where polarizabilities are sensitive to the asymptotic density decay and are crucial in a variety of applications, including the calculations of dispersion corrections and refractive index, and surpasses the performance of all other popular density functionals except for the non-tuned LRC-ωPBE. Finally, LRC-ωPBE (ωGDDML) combined with (extended) symmetry-adapted perturbation theory is used in calculating noncovalent interactions to further show that the traditional ab initio system-specific tuning procedure can be bypassed. The present study not only provides an accurate and efficient way to determine the range-separation parameter for LRC-ωPBE but also shows the synergistic benefits of fusing the power of physically inspired density functional LRC-ωPBE and the data-driven ωGDDML model.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2016

Analysis of Fuel Cell Markets in Japan and the US: Experience Curve Development and Cost Reduction Disaggregation

Fuel cells are both a longstanding and emerging technology for stationary and transportation applications, and their future use will likely be critical for the deep decarbonization of global energy systems. As we look into future applications, a key challenge for policy-makers and technology market forecasters who seek to track and/or accelerate their market adoption is the ability to forecast market costs of the fuel cells as technology innovations are incorporated into market products. Specifically, there is a need to estimate technology learning rates, which are rates of cost reduction versus production volume. Unfortunately, no literature exists for forecasting future learning rates for fuel cells. In this paper, we look retrospectively to estimate learning rates for two fuel cell deployment programs: (1) the micro-combined heat and power (CHP) program in Japan, and (2) the Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) in California. These two examples have a relatively broad set of historical market data and thus provide an informative and international comparison of distinct fuel cell technologies and government deployment programs. We develop a generalized procedure for disaggregating experience-curve cost-reductions in order to disaggregate the Japanese fuel cell micro-CHP market into its constituent components, and we derive and present a range of learning rates that may explain observed market trends. Finally, we explore the differences in the technology development ecosystem and market conditions that may have contributed to the observed differences in cost reduction and draw policy observations for the market adoption of future fuel cell technologies. The scientific and policy contributions of this paper are the first comparative experience curve analysis of past fuel cell technologies in two distinct markets, and the first quantitative comparison of a detailed cost model of fuel cell systems with actual market data. The resulting approach is applicable to analyzing other fuel cell markets and other energy-related technologies, and highlights the data needed for cost modeling and quantitative assessment of key cost reduction components.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗