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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Realism Assessment of Sonic Boom Simulators

Developments in small supersonic aircraft design are predicted to result in low-intensity sonic booms. Booms generated by current aircraft are similar to those that led to the ban on commercial supersonic fli ght over the US, so are unsuitable for parametric studies of psychoac oustic response to low-intensity booms. Therefore, simulators have be en used to study the impact of predicted low-intensity sonic booms. H owever, simulators have been criticized because, when simulating conv entional-level booms, the sounds were observed to be unrealistic by p eople experienced in listening to sonic booms. Thus, two studies were conducted to measure the perceived realism of three sonic boom simul ators. Experienced listeners rated the realism of conventional sonic boom signatures when played in these simulators. The effects on percei ved realism of factors such as duration of post-boom noise, exclusion of very low frequency components, inclusion of ground reflections, a nd type of simulator were examined. Duration of post-boom noise was f ound to have a strong effect on perceived realism, while type of simu lator had a weak effect. It was determined that post-boom noise had t o be at least 1.5 seconds long for the sound to be rated very realist ic. Loudness level did not affect realism for the range of sounds pla yed in the tests (80-93 dB ASEL).

Sullivan, Brenda M.↗

Earth Observing System Covariance Realism

The purpose of covariance realism is to properly size a primary object's covariance in order to add validity to the calculation of the probability of collision. The covariance realism technique in this paper consists of three parts: collection/calculation of definitive state estimates through orbit determination, calculation of covariance realism test statistics at each covariance propagation point, and proper assessment of those test statistics. An empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) method is employed to determine if a covariance is properly sized by comparing the empirical distribution of Mahalanobis distance calculations to the hypothesized parent 3-DoF chi-squared distribution. To realistically size a covariance for collision probability calculations, this study uses a state noise compensation algorithm that adds process noise to the definitive epoch covariance to account for uncertainty in the force model. Process noise is added until the GOF tests pass a group significance level threshold. The results of this study indicate that when outliers attributed to persistently high or extreme levels of solar activity are removed, the aforementioned covariance realism compensation method produces a tuned covariance with up to 80 to 90% of the covariance propagation timespan passing (against a 60% minimum passing threshold) the GOF tests-a quite satisfactory and useful result.

Realism↗

Assessing the behavioral realism of energy system models in light of the consumer adoption literature

Effective policymaking to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions demands an understanding of the complex drivers of, and barriers to, consumer adoption behavior via behaviorally realistic energy system models. Existing models tend to oversimplify by focusing on homogenized financial factors while neglecting consumer heterogeneity and non-monetary influences. This study develops and applies a comprehensive framework for evaluating the behavioral realism of consumer adoption models, informed by the adoption literature. It introduces a typology for factors influencing low-carbon technology adoption decisions: monetary and non-monetary factors relating to household characteristics, psychology, technological attributes, and contextual conditions. Next, reviews of the consumer adoption and decision-making literature identify the most influential adoption factor categories for distributed solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and air-source heat pumps. Finally, the extent to which a selection of energy system models accounts for these adoption factors is assessed. Existing models predominantly emphasize the economic aspects of technology, which are generally identified as the most important factors. Where the models fall short — in considering moderately important factor categories — sector-specific and agent-based models can offer more behaviorally realistic insights. This study sheds light on which types of factors are most important for consumer adoption decisions and investigates how well current models rise to the challenge of behavioral realism. The end-to-end analysis presented enables internally consistent comparisons across models and energy technologies. This research advances timely conversations on consumer adoption. It could inform more behaviorally realistic energy system modeling, and thereby more effective decarbonization policymaking.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A systematic decision-making methodology to formalize the selection of degree of realism in screening analysis of probabilistic risk assessment

In the nuclear power domain, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is used to inform decision-making for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Recently, there has been an increase in the utilization of modeling and simulation (M&S) to support the estimation of PRA inputs. Risk analysts should carefully select the PRA items that require M&S and their degree of realism (DoR) with consideration of the required resources. To support this selection, this article formulates a systematic decision-making approach for the DoR selection. The DoR selection is made based on two predictive decision-making attributes: the predicted differences in safety risk estimate (ΔSaRi) and the cost of analysis (ΔCAN). This research also develops and quantifies causal models to estimate ΔSaRi and ΔCAN. The causal model-based prediction of ΔSaRi and ΔCAN helps reduce the trial-and-error nature of the DoR selection in the PRA screening analysis and provides insights for DoR selection and the gradual refinements of PRA realism. This approach is demonstrated for a case study on fire PRA of NPPs, where an adequate DoR is selected from two fire models: an engineering correlation and a zone model.

Alkhatib, Sari [Department of Nuclear, Plasma, and↗

Adding computationally efficient realism to Monte Carlo turbulence simulation

Frequently in aerospace vehicle flight simulation, random turbulence is generated using the assumption that the craft is small compared to the length scales of turbulence. The turbulence is presumed to vary only along the flight path of the vehicle but not across the vehicle span. The addition of the realism of three-dimensionality is a worthy goal, but any such attempt will not gain acceptance in the simulator community unless it is computationally efficient. A concept for adding three-dimensional realism with a minimum of computational complexity is presented. The concept involves the use of close rational approximations to irrational spectra and cross-spectra so that systems of stable, explicit difference equations can be used to generate the turbulence.

Campbell, C. W.↗

Earth Observation System Flight Dynamics System Covariance Realism

This presentation applies a covariance realism technique to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observation System (EOS) Aqua and Aura spacecraft based on inferential statistics. The technique consists of three parts: collection calculation of definitive state estimates through orbit determination, calculation of covariance realism test statistics at each covariance propagation point, and proper assessment of those test statistics.

A-Train↗

Earth Observing System Covariance Realism Updates

This presentation will be given at the International Earth Science Constellation Mission Operations Working Group meetings June 13-15, 2017 to discuss the Earth Observing System Covariance Realism updates.

realism↗

Risk Importance Ranking of Fire Data Parameters to Enhance Fire PRA Model Realism

Fire is historically and analytically a significant contributor to nuclear power plant risk. The level of fire risk and the methods, tools and data for modeling this risk is highly debated by experts. One area of debate is the input data used in fire modeling and how to deal with this data’s high uncertainty. This report outlines initial work performed for determining the key parameters causing this uncertainty and how it propagates into nuclear power plant models. This research paves the way for the development of methods to reduce fire data uncertainty used in modeling. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has mandated that nuclear power plants perform fire risk modeling. However, there are several issues with the current risk modeling implementation that affect the results. Approved modeling methods can be overly conservative and often do not match plant experience. Also, the data used in the modeling can have high uncertainties and is influenced by expert judgement. To evaluate input data uncertainty, researchers performed an initial review of several fire experiments done at Sandia National Laboratories. Uncertainties for fire data can come from many sources, such as experiment design constraints, environmental conditions, or other plant-specific aspects. There are many different significant and insignificant parameters driving the uncertainty. Additionally, the uncertainty of the different input data used in the fire modeling could have a significant or insignificant effect on the entire plant risk. A four-step methodology was developed to perform Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment Importance Ranking. A demonstration case using these steps was set up and three of the four steps were completed in fiscal year (FY) 2019 and the fourth step done FY 2020. These steps are: 1. The qualitative analysis of potential sources was conducted with the following items identified for the demonstration. • Maximum heat release rate • Time to maximum heat release rate • Duration of max heat release rate • Time to decay • Thermal conductivity of concrete • Specific heat of concrete • Density of concrete • Cable jacket thickness 2. A quantitative characterization of dominant sources of uncertainty was performed. A list of distributions and determined values of the dominant sources is shown in Appendix A. 3. A quantitative screening of the potential sources of uncertainty using Morris Elementary Effects Analysis was completed. An experimental model using the physics-based fire modeling tool Fire Dynamics Simulator was developed and coupled with the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment. The Morris analysis identified at least two parameters that can be eliminated as significant contributors (specific heat of concrete and cable jacket thickness). 4. Global importance measure (Global IM) analysis to generate a comprehensive ranking based on their influence on the plant risk. In this research, a moment-independent Global IM is used since it can address (a) uncertainty in the input parameters of the fire model, (b) uncertainty in the risk outputs, and (c) non-linearity and interactions among input parameters in the fire model, more accurately than the correlation-based and variance-based global methods. The observations from the research showed that, depending on the initial and boundary conditions of the fire scenarios, fire-induced damage could have a very small probability and could be dominated by the tail of the uncertainty distribution; hence, the accuracy of the correlation-based and variance-based methods is questionable. The moment-independent Global IM analysis in this research provides a better understanding of how experimental uncertainty data affects industry’s plant models and where improvements in that data will have the largest benefit for improving fire modeling accuracy in causing core damage. Among the five unscreened parameters obtained from the Morris EE analysis, the Global IM analysis results for the case study indicated that max heat release rate and fire location are the most important parameters. The report also outlines benefits of using a unified computational platform that integrates the underlying simulations (e.g., a fire progression model), quantitative screening (using the Morris EE method), and the Global IM analysis. A unified platform can (i) facilitate the ranking of input parameters considering multiple key fire scenarios simultaneously, rather than considering one scenario at a time, (ii) contribute to more explicit and accurate treatment of dependencies at multiple levels of Fire PRA, (iii) facilitate the sampling-based uncertainty quantification for Fire PRA, and (iv) help generating both “industry-wide” and "plant-specific" ranking of uncertainty sources in Fire PRA. Future research should be done to include additional parameters such as detection/suppression or cable fire spread. Adding a PRA software such as SAPHIRE to the RAVEN platform would help with plant model integration and improve treatment of fire-induced dependency. The I-PRA risk importance ranking methodology offered in this report can provide valuable information for efficiently (a) enhancing the realism of Fire PRA for existing plants and (b) supporting the development of Dynamic Fire PRA for advanced reactors and new plants.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data for Grogan et al. "Bringing Hydrologic Realism to Water Markets"

This data set provides model output and post-processing files required to reproduce the results, tables, and figures in the paper "Bringing Hydrologic Realism to Water Markets" by Grogan et al. (in review). Other input data used in this study includes: Lisk, M., Grogan, D., Zuidema, S., Caccese, R., Peklak, D., Zheng, J., Fisher-Vanden, K., Lammers, R., Olmstead, S., & Fowler, L. (2023). Harmonized Database of Western U.S. Water Rights (HarDWR) (Version v1) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2205619 Two models were used in this study: (1) The University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model WBM, and (2) a Water Market Model. Market model code and model output post-processing code that make use of these data can be found here Model output files are: 1. WBM output files: scenario[x]_wbm_output.zip Where [x] is one of 1, 2, 2a, 3, and 3a Each zipped directory contains 7 gridded NetCDF files, each reporting the 10-year annual average value of a given variable, in units of average mm/day: File Name: wbm_indUseGross_yc.nc; Description: Water withdrawals by industry (part of the urban sector) File Name: wbm_domUseGross_yc.nc; Description: Water withdrawals by the domestic sector (part of the urban sector) File Name: wbm_irrigationGross_yc.nc; Description: Water withdrawals for agriculture File Name: wbm_irrigationExtra_yc.nc; Description: Water withdrawals from unsustainable groundwater for agriculture File Name: wbm_indUseEvap_yc.nc; Description: Consumptive water use by industry File Name: wbm_domUseEvap_yc.nc; Description: Consumptive water use by the domestic sector File Name: wbm_irrigationNet_yc.nc; Description: Consumptive water use by agriculture The file full_cell_area.nc gives the area of each grid cell in km2, which is used for converting water depth to water volume. 2. Water market model output & post processing output Folder: marketTrdSummaries/ Description: Files in this folder are used as input to code 1_WelfareCalculation_actual_trades.R. They summarize historical water right trade transactions in each state. File Name: welfare_gain_by_state_sector.csv; Description: Welfare gains by state and sector, as shown in Figure 3F. Used in code Figure3.R and produced (as a .xlsx file) by code 2_DemandCurves_simulated_trades.R File Name: welfare_data_actual.rdata; Description: welfare gains by WMA from actual historical trades, as shown in Figure 3A. This data is the output of code 1_WelfareCalculation_actual_trades.R File Name: welfare_summary_simulated.xlsx; Description: Welfare gains by state as simulated by the market model in Scenario 1. Produced by code 2_DemandCurves_simulated_trades.R, and used in code 4_WelfareCalculation.R. File Name: welfare_summary_cutoffs.xlsx; Description: Welfare gains by state as simulated by the market model in Scenario 2. Produced by code 3_DemandCurves_simulated_trades_cutoffs.R, and used in code 4_WelfareCalculation.R. File Name: welfare_summary_cutoffs_SGMS.xlsx; Description: Welfare gains by state as simulated by the market model in Scenario 2a. Produced by code 3_DemandCurves_simulated_trades_cutoffs.R, and used in code 4_WelfareCalculation.R. File Name: welfare_data_actual.rdata; Description: Spatial data, actual historical welfare gains by WMA as shown in Figure 3A. Produced by code 4_WelfareCalculation.R and used by code Figure3.R. File Name: welfare_data_simulated.rdata; Description: Spatial data, simulated Scenario 1 welfare gains by WMA as shown in Figure 3B. Produced by code 4_WelfareCalculation.R and used by code Figure3.R. File Name: welfare_data_simulated_cutoffs.rdata; Description: Spatial data, simulated Scenario 2 welfare gains by WMA. Produced by code 4_WelfareCalculation.R and used by code Figure3.R. File Name: welfare_data_simulated_cutoffs_SGMA.rdata; Description: Spatial data, simulated Scenario 2a welfare gains by WMA. Produced by code 4_WelfareCalculation.R and used by code Figure3.R. Additional files are provided for efficient reproduction of tables and figures. These include: File Name: wma_thresold_dates_Scenario2(a).csv; Description: Wet vs. paper right threshold dates for each WMA. Shown in Figure 2A,B. Produced and used by code calculate_thresolds_Figure2.R File Name: WWRTradeBounds (directory); Description: Trade boundary shapefile required to reproduce Figure 3A-D. Used in code Figure3.R File Name: welfare_region_totals.csv; Description: Welfare gains for the entire study region, as shown in Figure 3E. Used in code Figure3.R File Name: Welfare_gain_by_state_sector.csv; Description: Welfare gains by state and sector, as shown in Figure 3F. Used in code Figure3.R and produced (as a .xlsx file) by code 2_DemandCurves_simulated_trades.R File Name: WECC_MERIT_5min_v3b_mask.nc; Description: Gridded file that identified which land grid cells are in the WBM model domain, used for processing in code Figure4.py File Name: Table_1.csv; Description: All data in Table 1, reproducible from WBM output files using code table_1.R

Economics↗

A Measure of Psychological Realism on a Visual Simulator

A FUNDAMENTAL question of simulation technology is how to determine if an aircraft simulation is creating the proper psychological space necessary to assess manned-system performance. The standard approach to this problem for visual simulators is to measure how well pilots can make approaches and landings on the simulator. Experiments of this type generally show that simulator performance is worse than actual landing performance and that there is an excessive amount of training required to reach acceptable performance. Unfortunately, in these experiments it is difficult to sort out the inadequacies of the visual subsystem from possible inadequacies in other simulator subsystems, such as the motion subsystem. This synoptic presents the results from one of a series of five experiments which attempted to provide direct measures of the psychological realism on a computer graphics night visual flight attachment. These experiments used experimental procedures and methodologies that psychologists have developed in their attempts to determine how people perceived visual space in the real world.

Palmer, Everett↗

The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

cost risk↗

Processing Digital Imagery to Enhance Perceptions of Realism

Multi-scale retinex with color restoration (MSRCR) is a method of processing digital image data based on Edwin Land s retinex (retina + cortex) theory of human color vision. An outgrowth of basic scientific research and its application to NASA s remote-sensing mission, MSRCR is embodied in a general-purpose algorithm that greatly improves the perception of visual realism and the quantity and quality of perceived information in a digitized image. In addition, the MSRCR algorithm includes provisions for automatic corrections to accelerate and facilitate what could otherwise be a tedious image-editing process. The MSRCR algorithm has been, and is expected to continue to be, the basis for development of commercial image-enhancement software designed to extend and refine its capabilities for diverse applications.

Woodell, Glenn A.↗

Realism of Lagrangian Large Eddy Simulations Driven by Reanalysis Meteorology: Tracking a Pocket of Open Cells Under a Biomass Burning Aerosol Layer

An approach to drive Lagrangian large eddy simulation (LES) of boundary layer clouds with reanalysis data is presented and evaluated using satellite (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager, SEVIRI) and aircraft (Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing, CLARIFY) measurements. The simulations follow trajectories of the boundary layer flow. They track the formation and evolution of a pocket of open cells (POC) underneath a biomass burning aerosol layer in the free troposphere. The simulations reproduce the evolution of observed stratocumulus cloud morphology, cloud optical depth, and cloud drop effective radius, and capture the timing of the cloud state transition from closed to open cells seen in the satellite imagery on the three considered trajectories. They reproduce a biomass burning aerosol layer identified by the in-situ aircraft measurements above the inversion of the POC. Entrainment of aerosol from the biomass burning layer into the POC is limited to the extent of having no impact on cloud- or boundary layer properties, in agreement with the CLARIFY observations. The two-moment bin microphysics scheme used in the simulations reproduces the in-situ cloud microphysical properties reasonably well. A two-moment bulk microphysics scheme reproduces the satellite observations in the non-precipitating closed-cell state, but overestimates liquid water path and cloud optical depth in the precipitating open-cell state due to insufficient surface precipitation. A boundary layer cold and dry bias occurring in LES can be counteracted by reducing the grid aspect ratio and by tightening the large scale wind speed nudging towards the surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soil enzymes as indicators of soil function: A step toward greater realism in microbial ecological modeling

Soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles and their complex responses to environmental changes have received increasing attention. However, large uncertainties in model predictions remain, partially due to the lack of explicit representation and parameterization of microbial processes. One great challenge is to effectively integrate rich microbial functional traits into ecosystem modeling for better predictions. Here, using soil enzymes as indicators of soil function, we developed a competitive dynamic enzyme allocation scheme and detailed enzyme-mediated soil inorganic N processes in the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition (MEND) model. We conducted a rigorous calibration and validation of MEND with diverse soil C-N fluxes, microbial C:N ratios, and functional gene abundances from a 12-year CO 2 × N grassland experiment (BioCON) in Minnesota, USA. In addition to accurately simulating soil CO 2 fluxes and multiple N variables, the model correctly predicted microbial C:N ratios and their negative response to enriched N supply. Model validation further showed that, compared to the changes in simulated enzyme concentrations and decomposition rates, the changes in simulated activities of eight C-N-associated enzymes were better explained by the measured gene abundances in responses to elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration. In conclusion, our results demonstrated that using enzymes as indicators of soil function and validating model predictions with functional gene abundances in ecosystem modeling can provide a basis for testing hypotheses about microbially mediated biogeochemical processes in response to environmental changes. Further development and applications of the modeling framework presented here will enable microbial ecologists to address ecosystem-level questions beyond empirical observations, toward more predictive understanding, an ultimate goal of microbial ecology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Toward a Smart Metaverse City: Immersive Realism and 3D Visualization of Digital Twin Cities

Metaverse and its related extended reality technologies can enable immersive, realistic, and participatory visualization of 3D data, and their use and the potential within a smart city can be effective for supporting urban research and urban operations management. This book chapter describes a vision for prototyping a “Smart Metaverse City” to combine the unique advantage of the Metaverse technology with the two-way connectivity of a digital twin city application. This synergy aims to create a virtual environment for immersive geovisualization to help researchers and the public understand the complex urban system through science-based and data-driven approaches. This book chapter selectively reviews past technological and paradigm advancements for collecting, analyzing, and visualizing 3D urban big data. Then we present a prototyping Geographic Information System (GIS) framework, together with some relevant data sources and open-source web technologies, to help researchers create a smart Metaverse city. We demonstrate our vision and discuss its application opportunities through a real-world example, a digital twin city developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, to facilitate participatory, smart, and sustainable campus management.

Xu, Haowen↗