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At least 19 records

Uncertainties in estimating global potential yields and their impacts for long-term modeling

Estimating realistic potential yields by crop type and region is challenging; such yields depend on both biophysical characteristics (e.g., soil characteristics, climate, etc.), and the crop management practices available in any site or region (e.g., mechanization, irrigation, crop cultivars). A broad body of literature has assessed potential yields for selected crops and regions, using several strategies. In this study we first analyze future potential yields of major crop types globally by two different estimation methods, one of which is based on historical observed yields (“Empirical”), while the other is based on biophysical conditions (“Simulated”). Potential yields by major crop and region are quite different between the two methods; in particular, Simulated potential yields are typically 200% higher than Empirical potential yields in tropical regions for major crops. Applying both of these potential yields in yield gap closure scenarios in a global agro-economic model, GCAM, the two estimates of future potential yields lead to very different outcomes for the agricultural sector globally. In the Simulated potential yield closure scenario, Africa, Asia, and South America see comparatively favorable outcomes for agricultural sustainability over time: low land use change emissions, low crop prices, and high levels of self-sufficiency. In contrast, the Empirical potential yield scenario is characterized by a heavy reliance on production and exports in temperate regions that currently practice industrial agriculture. At the global level, this scenario has comparatively high crop commodity prices, and more land allocated to crop production (and associated land use change emissions) than either the baseline or Simulated potential yield scenarios. This study highlights the importance of the choice of methods of estimating potential yields for agro-economic modeling.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Higher than expected N 2 O emissions from soybean crops in the Pampas Region of Argentina: Estimates from DayCent simulations and field measurements

In developing countries, agriculture generally represents a large fraction of GHG emissions reported in National Inventories, and emissions are typically estimated using Tier 1 IPCC guidelines. However, field data and locally adapted simulation models can improve the accuracy of IPCC estimations. In this report we aimed to quantify anthropogenic N2O emissions from croplands of Argentina through field measurements, model simulations and IPCC guidelines. Here we measured N 2 O emissions and their controlling factors in 62 plots of the Pampas Region with corn, soybean and wheat/soybean crops and in unmanaged grasslands. We accounted for gross emissions from crops and background emissions from unmanaged grasslands to calculate net anthropogenic emissions from crops as the difference between them. We calibrated and evaluated the DayCent model and then simulated different weather and management scenarios. Finally, we applied IPCC guidelines to estimate anthropogenic N 2 O emissions at the same plots. The DayCent model accurately simulated annual N 2 O emission for all crops as compared to measured data (RMSE = 1.4 g N ha -1 day -1 ). Measured and simulated emissions in soybean crops were higher than in corn and wheat/soybean crops. Gross N 2 O emissions ranged from 1.4 to 5.1 kg N ha -1 yr -1 for current environmental (soil and weather) and management (crops and fertilizer doses) conditions. Background emissions ranged between 1.1 and 1.3 kg N ha -1 yr -1 , and therefore net anthropogenic emissions ranged from 0.3 to 4.0 kg N ha-1 yr -1 . IPCC Tier 1 emission factors underestimated N2O releases from soybean, that were on average 4.87 times greater when estimated with DayCent and observations (0.53 vs 2.47 and 2.69 kg N ha -1 yr -1 , respectively). On the contrary, IPCC estimates for corn and wheat/soybean crops were similar to modeled and measured values. Our results suggest that N 2 O emissions from the vast 15 million ha of soybean croplands in the Pampas Region may be substantially underestimated.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Impact of Crop Rotation and Spatially Varying Crop Parameters in the E3SM Land Model (ELMv2)

Abstract Earth System Models (ESMs) are increasingly representing agriculture due to its impact on biogeochemical cycles, local and regional climate, and fundamental importance for human society. Realistic large scale simulations may require spatially varying crop parameters that capture crop growth at various scales and among different cultivars, as well as common crop management practices, but their importance is uncertain, and they are often not represented in ESMs. In this study, we examine the impact of using constant versus spatially varying crop parameters using a novel, realistic crop rotation scenario in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model version 2 (ELMv2). We implemented crop rotation by using ELMv2's dynamic land unit capability, and then calibrated and validated the model against observations collected at three AmeriFlux sites in the US Midwest with corn soybean rotation. The calibrated model closely captured the magnitude and observed seasonality of carbon and energy fluxes across crops and sites. We performed regional simulations for the US Midwest using the calibrated model and found that spatially varying only a few crop parameters across the region, as opposed to using constant parameters, had a large impact, with the carbon fluxes and energy fluxes both varying by up to 40%. These results imply that large scale ESM simulations using spatially invariant crop parameters may result in biased energy and carbon fluxes estimation from agricultural land, and underline the importance of improving human‐earth systems interactions in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tropical Tree Crop Simulation with a Process-Based, Daily Timestep Simulation Model (ALMANAC): Description of Model Adaptation and Examples with Coffee and Cocoa Simulations

Coffee (Coffea species) and Cocoa (Theobroma cacao) are important cash crops grown in the tropics but traded globally. This study was conducted to apply the ALMANAC model to these crops for the first time, and to test its ability to simulate them under agroforestry management schemes and varying precipitation amounts. To create this simulation, coffee was grown on a site in Kaua’i, Hawai’i, USA, and cocoa was grown on a site in Sefwi Bekwai, Ghana. A stand-in for a tropical overstory tree was created for agroforestry simulations using altered parameters for carob, a common taller tropical tree for these regions. For both crops, ALMANAC was able to realistically simulate yields when compared to the collected total yield data. On Kaua’i, the mean simulated yield was 2% different from the mean measured yield, and in all three years, the simulated values were within 10% of the measured values. For cocoa, the mean simulated yield was 3% different from the mean measured yield and the simulated yield was within 10% of measured yields for all four available years. When precipitation patterns were altered, in Ghana, the wetter site showed lower percent changes in yield than the drier site in Hawai’i. When agroforestry-style management was simulated, a low Leaf Area Index (LAI) of the overstory showed positive or no effect on yields, but when LAI climbed too high, the simulation was able to show the detrimental effect this competition had on crop yields. These simulation results are supported by other literature documenting the effects of agroforestry on tropical crops. This research has applied ALMANAC to new crops and demonstrated its simulation of different management and environmental conditions. The results show promise for ALMANAC’s applicability to these scenarios as well as its potential to be further tested and utilized in new circumstances.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

CO 2 fertilization of crops offsets yield losses due to future surface ozone damage and climate change

Tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) is harmful to plant productivity and negatively impacts crop yields. O3 concentrations are projected to decrease globally in the optimistic Representative Concentration Pathway of 2.6 W m –2 (RCP2.6) but increase globally following the high-emission scenario under the RCP8.5, with substantial implications for global food security. The damaging effect of O 3 on future crop yield is affected by CO 2 fertilization and climate change, and their interactions for RCP scenarios have yet to be quantified. In this study, we used the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) to quantify the impacts, and relative importance of present-day and future O3, CO 2 concentration and meteorology on crop production at the regional scale until 2100 following RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We focus on eight major crop-producing regions that cover the production of wheat, soybean, maize, and rice. Our results show that CO 2 alone has the largest effect on regional yields, followed by climate and O 3 . However, the CO 2 fertilization effect is offset by the negative impact of tropospheric O 3 in regions with high O 3 concentrations, such as South Asia and China. Simulated crop yields in 2050 were compared with Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) statistics to investigate the differences between a socioeconomic and a biophysical process-based approach. Results showed that FAO estimates are closer to our JULES-crop RCP8.5 scenario. This study demonstrates that air pollution could be the biggest threat to future food production and highlights an urgent policy need to mitigate the threat of climate change and O 3 pollution on food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Farmer characteristics and decision-making: A model for bioenergy crop adoption

We report the commercial development of biofuels and bioproducts depends on whether renewable biomass feedstock is available while not directly competing with the production of food. Farmers are one of the most important stakeholders in the biofuel supply chain and confront a range of uncertainties while entering the bioenergy market. Their decision-making process is extremely complex and rarely purely rational. Modeling farmer behavior requires considering a wide range of individual-level factors, socio-temporal dynamics, institutional settings, and their interactions. These characteristics make agent-based modeling a suitable framework for evaluating such systems. We developed a model to simulate farmer bioenergy crop adoption behavior across a 50-county study region in Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado. The analysis considers adoption decisions for two bioenergy feedstocks, crop residues and energy crops. We examine the influence of individual and farm characteristics, market structure, social networks, and media influence on farmer adoption decisions. Our results indicate that different factors can have varied impacts on the speed of adoption for the crop residues and energy crops. Identifying levers that have the most impact on grower adoption can inform the design of interventions both from policy and private sector standpoints with important implications for the future the bioenergy industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Applying double cropping and interactive irrigation in the North China Plain using WRF4.5

Abstract. Irrigated cultivation exerts a significant influence on the local climate and the hydrological cycle. The North China Plain (NCP) is known for its intricate agricultural system, marked by expansive cropland, high productivity, compact rotation, a semi-arid climate, and intensive irrigation practices. As a result, there has been considerable attention on the potential impact of this intensive irrigated agriculture on the local climate. However, studying the irrigation impact in this region has been challenging due to the lack of an accurate simulation of crop phenology and irrigation practices within the climate model. By incorporating double cropping with interactive irrigation, our study extends the capabilities of the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model, which has previously demonstrated commendable performance in simulating single-cropping scenarios. This allows for two-way feedback between irrigated crops and climate, further enabling the inclusion of irrigation feedback from both ground and vegetation perspectives. The improved crop modeling system shows significant enhancement in capturing vegetation and irrigation patterns, which is evidenced by its ability to identify crop stages, estimate field biomass, predict crop yield, and project monthly leaf area index. The improved simulation of large-scale irrigated crops in the NCP can further enhance our understanding of the intricate relationship between agricultural development and climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Explicit Consideration of Plant Xylem Hydraulic Transport Improves the Simulation of Crop Response to Atmospheric Dryness in the U.S. Corn Belt

Abstract Atmospheric dryness (i.e., high vapor pressure deficit, VPD), together with soil moisture stress, limits plant photosynthesis and threatens ecosystem functioning. Regions where rainfall and soil moisture are relatively sufficient, such as the rainfed part of the U.S. Corn Belt, are especially prone to high VPD stress. With globally projected rising VPD under climate change, it is crucial to understand, simulate, and manage its negative impacts on agricultural ecosystems. However, most existing models simulating crop response to VPD are highly empirical and insufficient in capturing plant response to high VPD, and improved modeling approaches are urgently required. In this study, by leveraging recent advances in plant hydraulic theory, we demonstrate that the VPD constraints in the widely used coupled photosynthesis‐stomatal conductance models alone are inadequate to fully capture VPD stress effects. Incorporating plant xylem hydraulic transport significantly improves the simulation of transpiration under high VPD, even when soil moisture is sufficient. Our results indicate that the limited water transport capability from the plant root to the leaf stoma could be a major mechanism of plant response to high VPD stress. We then introduce a Demand‐side Hydraulic Limitation Factor (DHLF) that simplifies the xylem and the leaf segments of the plant hydraulic model to only one parameter yet captures the effect of plant hydraulic transport on transpiration response to high VPD with similar accuracy. We expect the improved understanding and modeling of crop response to high VPD to help contribute to better management and adaptation of agricultural systems in a changing climate.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

E3SM‐GCAM: A Synchronously Coupled Human Component in the E3SM Earth System Model Enables Novel Human‐Earth Feedback Research

Abstract Modeling human‐environment feedbacks is critical for assessing the effectiveness of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under a changing climate. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) now includes a human component, with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) at its core, that is synchronously coupled with the land and atmosphere components through the E3SM coupling software. Terrestrial productivity is passed from E3SM to GCAM to make climate‐responsive land use and CO 2 emission projections for the next 5‐year period, which are interpolated and passed to E3SM annually. Key variables affected by the incorporation of these feedbacks include land use/cover change, crop prices, terrestrial carbon, local surface temperature, and climate extremes. Regional differences are more pronounced than global differences because the effects are driven primarily by differences in land use. This novel system enables a new type of scenario development and provides a powerful modeling framework that facilitates the addition of other feedbacks between these models. This system has the potential to explore how human responses to climate change impacts in a variety of sectors, including heating/cooling energy demand, water management, and energy production, may alter emissions trajectories and Earth system changes. Plain Language Summary Earth system models help us understand how humans are changing the climate. Currently, these models do not include human systems, so predetermined greenhouse gas, aerosol, and land use change data are input to these models. These data do not reflect human responses to changes projected by Earth system models. We have added a human component to an Earth system model to represent human responses to environmental change and calculate corresponding greenhouse gas and land use change data instead of using predetermined data. Including this human component changes projections of land use, land carbon storage, and regional climate. Key Points We have incorporated a novel, advanceable human component in an Earth system model to simulate human‐Earth feedbacks Including terrestrial productivity feedbacks from the Earth to the human systems affects land change, crop prices, carbon, and climate Regional effects of including terrestrial productivity feedbacks are greater than global effects because land change is the main driver

E3SM↗

Integrating crop growth models with remote sensing for predicting biomass yield of sorghum

Abstract Plant phenotypes are often descriptive, rather than predictive of crop performance. As a result, extensive testing is required in plant breeding programmes to develop varieties aimed at performance in the target environments. Crop models can improve this testing regime by providing a predictive framework to (i) augment field phenotyping data and derive hard-to-measure phenotypes and (ii) estimate performance across geographical regions using historical weather data. The goal of this study was to parameterize the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop growth models with remote-sensing and ground-reference data to predict variation in phenology and yield-related traits in 18 commercial grain and biomass sorghum hybrids. Genotype parameters for each hybrid were estimated using remote-sensing measurements combined with manual phenotyping in West Lafayette, IN, in 2018. The models were validated in hybrid performance trials in two additional seasons at that site and against yield trials conducted in Bushland, TX, between 2001 and 2018. These trials demonstrated that (i) maximum plant height, final dry biomass and radiation use efficiency (RUE) of photoperiod-sensitive and -insensitive forage sorghum hybrids tended to be higher than observed in grain sorghum, (ii) photoperiod-sensitive sorghum hybrids exhibited greater biomass production in longer growing environments and (iii) the parameterized and validated models perform well in above-ground biomass simulations across years and locations. Crop growth models that integrate remote-sensing data offer an efficient approach to parameterize larger plant breeding populations.

Yang, Kai-Wei↗

Agrivoltaic system design tools for managing trade-offs between energy production, crop productivity and water consumption

Abstract Agrivoltaic systems that locate crop production and photovoltaic energy generation on the same land have the potential to aid the transition to renewable energy by reducing the competition between food, habitat, and energy needs for land while reducing irrigation requirements. Experimental efforts to date have not adequately developed an understanding of the interaction among local climate, array design and crop selection sufficient to manage trade-offs in system design. This study simulates the energy production, crop productivity and water consumption impacts of agrivoltaic array design choices in arid and semi-arid environments in the Southwestern region of the United States. Using the Penman–Monteith evapotranspiration model, we predict agrivoltaics can reduce crop water consumption by 30%–40% of the array coverage level, depending on local climate. A crop model simulating productivity based on both light level and temperature identifies afternoon shading provided by agrivoltaic arrays as potentially beneficial for shade tolerant plants in hot, dry settings. At the locations considered, several designs and crop combinations exceed land equivalence ratio values of 2, indicating a doubling of the output per acre for the land resource. These results highlight key design axes for agrivoltaic systems and point to a decision support tool for their development.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Global relationships between crop diversity and nutritional stability

Nutritional stability – a food system’s capacity to provide sufficient nutrients despite disturbance – is an important, yet challenging to measure outcome of diversified agriculture. Using 55 years of data across 184 countries, we assemble 22,000 bipartite crop-nutrient networks to quantify nutritional stability by simulating crop and nutrient loss in a country, and assess its relationship to crop diversity across regions, over time and between imports versus in country production. We find a positive, saturating relationship between crop diversity and nutritional stability across countries, but also show that over time nutritional stability remained stagnant or decreased in all regions except Asia. These results are attributable to diminishing returns on crop diversity, with recent gains in crop diversity among crops with fewer nutrients, or with nutrients already in a country’s food system. Finally, imports are positively associated with crop diversity and nutritional stability, indicating that many countries’ nutritional stability is market exposed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interactions Between Climate Mean and Variability Drive Future Agroecosystem Vulnerability

ABSTRACT Agriculture is crucial for global food supply and dominates the Earth's land surface. It is unknown, however, how slow but relentless changes in climate mean state, versus random extreme conditions arising from changing variability , will affect agroecosystems' carbon fluxes, energy fluxes, and crop production. We used an advanced weather generator to partition changes in mean climate state versus variability for both temperature and precipitation, producing forcing data to drive factorial‐design simulations of US Midwest agricultural regions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. We found that an increase in temperature mean lowers stored carbon, plant productivity, and crop yield, and tends to convert agroecosystems from a carbon sink to a source, as expected; it also can cause local to regional cooling in the earth system model through its effects on the Bowen Ratio. The combined effect of mean and variability changes on carbon fluxes and pools was nonlinear, that is, greater than each individual case. For instance, gross primary production reduces by 9%, 1%, and 13% due to change in mean temperature, change in temperature variability, and change in both temperature mean and variability, respectively. Overall, the scenario with change in both temperature and precipitation means leads to the largest reduction in carbon fluxes (−16% gross primary production), carbon pools (−35% vegetation carbon), and crop yields (−33% and −22% median reduction in yield for corn and soybean, respectively). By unambiguously parsing the effects of changing climate mean versus variability and quantifying their nonadditive impacts, this study lays a foundation for more robust understanding and prediction of agroecosystems' vulnerability to 21st‐century climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increased nitrogen use efficiency in crop production can provide economic and environmental benefits

Potential economic and environmental benefits of increasing nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE) are widely recognized but scarcely quantified. This study quantifies the effects of increased NUE on 1) the national agricultural economy using a simulation model of US agriculture and 2) regional water quality effects using a biogeochemical model for the Arkansas-White-Red river basin. Here, national economic effects are reported for NUE improvement scenarios of 10%, 20%, 50%, and 100%, whereas regional water quality effects are estimated for a 20% NUE improvement scenario in the Arkansas-White-Red river basin. Simulating a 20% increase in NUE in row crops is shown to reduce N requirements by 1.4 million tonnes y-1 and increase farmer net profits by 1.6% ($743 million) per year by 2026 over the baseline simulation for the same period. For each 10% increase in NUE, annual farm revenues for commodity crops increased over the baseline by approximately $350 million per year by 2026. Changes in crop prices and land-use relative to the baseline were less than 2%. This suggests a net benefit even though fertilizer cost savings can result in increased cultivation of land, i.e., ‘Jevon's paradox’. Results from the biogeochemical model of the Arkansas-White-Red river basin suggest that a 20% increase in NUE corresponds to a 5.72% reduction in nitrate loadings to freshwaters, with higher reductions in agricultural watersheds. The value of these reductions was estimated as $43 ha-1, for a total of $15.3 to 136.7 million yr-1 in avoided water treatment costs. After estimating the social value of increased NUE, we conclude with a discussion of potential strategies to increase efficiency and the research needed to achieve this goal. These include perennialization of the agricultural landscape, genetic crop improvement, targeted fertilizer application, and manipulation of the plant-root microbiome.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Crop Modeling Application to Improve Irrigation Efficiency in Year-Round Vegetable Production in the Texas Winter Garden Region

Given a rising demand for quality assurance, rather than solely yield, supplemental irrigation plays an important role to ensure the viability and profitability of vegetable crops from unpredictable changes in weather. However, under drought conditions, agricultural irrigation is often given low priority for water allocation. This reduced water availability for agriculture calls for techniques with greater irrigation efficiency, that do not compromise crop quality and yield, and that provide economic benefit for producers. This study developed vegetable growing models for eight different vegetable crops (bush bean, green bean, cabbage, peppermint, spearmint, yellow straight neck squash, zucchini, and bell pepper) based on data from several years of field research. The ALMANAC model accurately simulated yields and water use efficiency (WUE) of all eight vegetables. The developed vegetable models were used to evaluate the effects of various irrigation regimes on vegetable growth and production in several locations in the Winter Garden Region of Texas, under variable weather conditions. Based on our simulation results from 960 scenarios, optimal irrigation amounts that produce high yield as well as reasonable economic profit to producers were determined for each vegetable crop. Overall, yields for all vegetables increased as irrigation amounts increased. However, irrigation amounts did not have a sustainable impact on vegetable yield at high irrigation treatments, and the WUEs of most vegetables were not significantly different among various irrigation regimes. When vegetable yields were compared with water cost, the rate decreased as irrigation amounts increased. Thus, producers will not receive economic benefits when vegetable irrigation water demand is too high.

Kim, Sumin↗

Data for Determining Spatially Varying Profit-Maximizing Management Practices for Miscanthus and Switchgrass Production in the Rainfed United States

The compiled datasets include county-level variables used for simulating miscanthus and switchgrass production in 2287 counties across the rainfed US including 5-year (2012-2016) averaged growing season degree days (GDD), 5-year (2012-2016) averaged growing season cumulative precipitation, National Commodity Crop Productivity Index (NCCPI) values, regional dummies (only for miscanthus), the regional-level random effect of the yield response function, N price, land cash rent, the first year fixed cost (only for switchgrass), and separate datasets for simulating an alternative model assuming a constant N rate. The GAMS codes are used to run the simulation to obtain the main results including the age-varying profit-maximizing N rate, biomass yields, and annual profits for miscanthus and switchgrass production across counties in the rainfed US. The STATA codes are used to merge and analyze simulation results and create summary statistics tables and key figures.

Age↗

Modeling Yield, Biogenic Emissions, and Carbon Sequestration in Southeastern Cropping Systems With Winter Carinata

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production from lipids is a technologically mature approach for replacing conventional fossil fuel use in the aviation sector, and there is increasing demand for such feedstocks. The oilseed Brassica carinata (known as Ethiopian mustard or simply carinata) is a promising SAF feedstock that can be grown as a supplemental cash crop over the winter fallow season of various annual crop rotations in the Southeast US, avoiding land use changes and potentially achieving some of the soil carbon sequestration and ecosystem service benefits of winter cover crops. However, carinata may require more intensive management than traditional cover crops, potentially leading to additional soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through increased carbon losses from soil tillage and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from nitrogen fertilizer application. In this work, the 2017 version of the process-based DayCent ecosystem model was used to establish initial expectations for the total regional SAF production potential and associated soil GHG emissions when carinata is integrated as a winter crop into the existing crop rotations across its current suitability range in southern Alabama, southern Georgia, and northern Florida. Using data from academic and industry carinata field trials in the region, DayCent was calibrated to reproduce carinata yield, nitrogen response, harvest index, and biomass carbon-to-nitrogen ratio. The resulting model was then used to simulate the integration of carinata every third winter across all 2.1 Mha of actively cultivated cropland in the study area. The model predicted regional average yields of 2.9–3.0 Mg carinata seed per hectare depending on crop management assumptions. That results in the production of more than two million Mg of carinata seed annually across the study area, enough to supply approximately one billion liters of SAF. Conventional management of carinata led to only modest increases in soil carbon storage that were largely offset by additional N2O emissions. Climate-smart management via adopting no-till carinata establishment or using poultry litter as a nitrogen source resulted in a substantial net soil GHG sink (0.23–0.31 Mg CO 2 e ha -1 y -1 , or 0.24–0.32 Mg CO2e per Mg of seed produced) at the farms where carinata is cultivated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗