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Results for “Regional surrogate”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Regional surrogates for predictive control of digital twins

Digital twins of complex systems must involve a model that is fast, generalizable, and usable for real-time control. For example, high-fidelity nonlinear multiphysics simulations can capture laser-material interactions, but are too slow for optimization or model predictive control (MPC). Reduced-order models, used to accelerate such computation, frequently fail to generalize to unseen inputs or control states. We show theoretically that this failure is intrinsic, i.e., that a learned model is non-unique outside the sampled subspace when its low-rank structure arises from limited excitation and clustered eigenvalues, rather than from a user-imposed truncation alone. Motivated by this result, we propose a control-ready regional surrogate-construction framework for both autonomous and nonautonomous dynamics; it employs Koopman lifting to represent nonlinearities, while preserving spatial locality. We illustrate our approach by constructing a control-ready surrogate for the digital twin of a thermal component of additive-manufacturing process. Our surrogate, localized in space through a von Neumann stencil, is learned from noisy high-fidelity simulations that emulate thermal-camera images collected during the manufacturing. It is linear in thermo-physically augmented states so that MPC reduces to a convex quadratic program. The surrogate requires no online correction, generalizes to unseen scan paths and power profiles of the laser, and is more than three orders of magnitude faster than a finite-difference solver. Furthermore, when the MPC sequence computed on the digital twin is applied to this solver, closed-loop temperature regulation is recovered, showing that the surrogate preserves control-relevant input-output behavior.

Data-driven model↗
DOE OSTI2023

Determining the tensile strength of fuel surrogate TRISO-coated particle buffer, IPyC, and buffer-IPyC interlayer regions

A novel micro tensile sample fabrication technique for determining the tensile strength of the buffer, IPyC, and buffer -IPyC interlayer regions of surrogate (ZrO2) TRISO fuel particle layers was refined and implemented. Copper micro tensile samples served as baseline materials to verify the methods used. Tensile tests performed in this study, while limited in number, were analyzed using standard and Weibull statistics. As expected, the buffer layer was weakest, with an average ultimate tensile strength of 138.70 MPa, and the IPyC layer samples, were strongest, with an average ultimate tensile strength of 189.74 MPa. In the buffer -IPyC interface samples, all breaks occurred in the buffer region, though the average ultimate tensile strength of the samples, 159.80 MPa, was between the pure buffer and IPyC samples. These results suggest the interlayer region has unique properties, perhaps associated with pyrocarbon infiltration into the buffer layer during particle coating. All interlayer samples fractured within the buffer side; however, the stress strain behavior of some of these samples resembled the behavior of the IPyC layer samples. Here, the buffer and IPyC layer strengths had a normal distribution under Weibull analysis, while the interlayer region had a Rayleigh distribution. Further testing is needed to clarify both the standard and Weibull statistical results

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Empirical relationships among atmospheric variables from rawinsonde and field data as surrogates for AVIRIS measurements: Estimation of regional land surface evapotranspiration

Empirical relationships between variables are ways of securing estimates of quantities difficult to measure by remote sensing methods. The use of empirical functions was explored between: (1) atmospheric column moisture abundance W (gm H2O/cm(sup 2) and surface absolute water vapor density rho(q-bar) (gm H2O/cm(sup 3), with rho density of moist air (gm/cm(sup 3), q-bar specific humidity (gm H2O/gm moist air), and (2) column abundance and surface moisture flux E (gm H2O/(cm(sup 2)sec)) to infer regional evapotranspiration from Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometers (AVIRIS) water vapor mapping data. AVIRIS provides, via analysis of atmospheric water absorption features, estimates of column moisture abundance at very high mapping rate (at approximately 100 km(sup 2)/40 sec) over large areas at 20 m ground resolution.

Conel, James E.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled Lake‐Atmosphere‐Land Physics Uncertainties in a Great Lakes Regional Climate Model

Abstract This study develops a surrogate‐based method to assess the uncertainty within a convective permitting integrated modeling system of the Great Lakes region, arising from interacting physics parameterizations across the lake, atmosphere, and land surface. Perturbed physics ensembles of the model during the 2018 summer are used to train a neural network surrogate model to predict lake surface temperature (LST) and near‐surface air temperature (T2m). Average physics uncertainties are determined to be 1.5C for LST and T2m over land, and 1.9C for T2m over lake, but these have significant spatiotemporal variations. We find that atmospheric physics parameterizations alone are the dominant sources of uncertainty (45%–53%), while lake and land parameterizations account for 33% and 38% of the uncertainty of LST and T2m over land respectively. Interactions of atmosphere physics parameterizations with those of the land and lake contribute to an additional 13%–17% of the total variance. LST and T2m over the lake are more uncertain in the deeper northern lakes, particularly during the rapid warming phase that occurs in late spring/early summer. The LST uncertainty increases with sensitivity to the lake model's surface wind stress scheme. T2m over land is more uncertain over forested areas in the north, where it is most sensitive to the land surface model, than the more agricultural land in the south, where it is most sensitive to the atmospheric planetary boundary and surface layer scheme. Uncertainty also increases in the southwest during multiday temperature declines with higher sensitivity to the land surface model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning models for PDE constrained optimization

Partial differential equation (PDE)-constrained optimization problems arise in a variety of scientific and engineering applications, such as topology optimization, electrodynamics, fluid dynamics, and structural dynamics. However, these problems are often challenging and computationally expensive to solve, due to the need to solve the PDEs within the optimization loop. One approach to reducing the computational cost of these methods while providing convergence guarantees is through inexact trust region methods; this method uses lower fidelity solutions of the PDE at early stages of the optimization and adjusts the required accuracy of inexact PDE solvers as the optimization progresses. In this work, we explore the use of machine learning based surrogate models with these inexact trust region methods. We first demonstrate the potential of this approach by using Gaussian processes as the surrogate model and test this on a simple PDE-constrained optimization problem. We then document explorations into improving the computational costs of evolutional deep neural network / neural Galerkin methods, with the eventual goal of using these methods with the inexact trust region algorithms. We are able to speed up these approaches, albeit at the cost of lower accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards Fast and Accurate Predictions of Radio Frequency Power Deposition and Current Profile via Data-driven Modeling

Three machine learning techniques (multilayer perceptron, random forest, and Gaussian process) provide fast surrogate models for lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulations. A single GENRAY/CQL3D simulation without radial diffusion of fast electrons requires several minutes of wall-clock time to complete, which is acceptable for many purposes, but too slow for integrated modeling and real-time control applications. The machine learning models use a database of 16,000+ GENRAY/CQL3D simulations for training, validation, and testing. Latin hypercube sampling methods ensure that the database covers the range of 9 input parameters ($n_{e0}$, $T_{e0}$, $I_p$, $B_t$, $R_0$, $n_{||}$, $Z_{eff}$, $V_{loop}$, $P_{LHCD}$) with sufficient density in all regions of parameter space. The surrogate models reduce the inference time from minutes to ~ms with high accuracy across the input parameter space.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards fast and accurate predictions of radio frequency power deposition and current profile via data-driven modelling: applications to lower hybrid current drive

Three machine learning techniques (multilayer perceptron, random forest and Gaussian process) provide fast surrogate models for lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulations. A single GENRAY/CQL3D simulation without radial diffusion of fast electrons requires several minutes of wall-clock time to complete, which is acceptable for many purposes, but too slow for integrated modelling and real-time control applications. The machine learning models use a database of more than 16 000 GENRAY/CQL3D simulations for training, validation and testing. Latin hypercube sampling methods ensure that the database covers the range of nine input parameters ( $n_{e0}$ , $T_{e0}$ , $I_p$ , $B_t$ , $R_0$ , $n_{\|}$ , $Z_{{\rm eff}}$ , $V_{{\rm loop}}$ and $P_{{\rm LHCD}}$ ) with sufficient density in all regions of parameter space. The surrogate models reduce the inference time from minutes to $\sim$ ms with high accuracy across the input parameter space.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards fast, accurate predictions of RF simulations via data-driven modeling: Forward and lateral models

Three machine learning techniques (multilayer perceptron, random forest, and Gaussian process) provide fast surrogate models for lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulations. A single GENRAY/CQL3D simulation without radial diffusion of fast electrons requires several minutes of wall-clock time to complete, which is acceptable for many purposes, but too slow for integrated modeling and real-time control applications. More accurate simulations with fast electron diffusion are even slower, requiring multiple hours of run time with parallel processing. The machine learning models use a database of 16,000+ GEN-RAY/CQL3D simulations for training, validation, and testing. Latin hypercube sampling methods implemented in πScope ensure that the database covers the range of 9 input parameters (n e0 , T e0 , I p , B t , R 0 , n ∥︀ , Z e f f , V loop , P LHCD ) with sufficient density in all regions of parameter space. The surrogate models reduce the computation time from minutes-hours to ms with high accuracy across the input parameter space. Data-driven surrogate models also allow for solving inverse and “lateral” problems. A surrogate model for the inverse problem maps from a desired current drive or power deposition profile to a set of input parameters that would result in such a profile, while a surrogate model for the lateral problem maps from a measured experimental quantity such as hard x-ray emission to a current drive or power deposition profile. In conclusion, the πScope database creation workflow is flexible and applicable to other RF simulation codes such as TORIC.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1993

The use of polar-orbiting satellite sounding data to estimate rural maximum and minimum temperatures

Atmospheric sounding products from NOAA's polar-orbiting satellites were used to derive and test predictive equations of rural shelter-level maximum and minimum temperatures. Sounding data from both winter and summer months were combined with surface data from over 5300 cooperative weather stations in the continental United States to develop multiple linear regression equations. Separate equations were developed for both maximum and minimum temperature, using the three types of sounding retrievals (clear, partly cloudy, and cloudy). Clear retrieval models outperformed others, and maximum temperatures were more accurately predicted than minimums. Average standard deviations of observed rural shelter temperatures within sounding search areas were of similar magnitude to root-mean-square errors from satellite estimates for most clear and partly cloudy cases, but were significantly less for cloudy retrieval cases. Model validation for surrogate polar and tropical climatic regions showed success in application of the four clear retrieval models (maximum and minimum temperature, for both winter and summer). This indicates the potential adaptability of these models to estimates of rural shelter temperature in areas outside of the United States.

Johnson, Gregory L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards automating structural discovery in scanning transmission electron microscopy *

Abstract Scanning transmission electron microscopy is now the primary tool for exploring functional materials on the atomic level. Often, features of interest are highly localized in specific regions in the material, such as ferroelectric domain walls, extended defects, or second phase inclusions. Selecting regions to image for structural and chemical discovery via atomically resolved imaging has traditionally proceeded via human operators making semi-informed judgements on sampling locations and parameters. Recent efforts at automation for structural and physical discovery have pointed towards the use of ‘active learning’ methods that utilize Bayesian optimization with surrogate models to quickly find relevant regions of interest. Yet despite the potential importance of this direction, there is a general lack of certainty in selecting relevant control algorithms and how to balance a priori knowledge of the material system with knowledge derived during experimentation. Here we address this gap by developing the automated experiment workflows with several combinations to both illustrate the effects of these choices and demonstrate the tradeoffs associated with each in terms of accuracy, robustness, and susceptibility to hyperparameters for structural discovery. We discuss possible methods to build descriptors using the raw image data and deep learning based semantic segmentation, as well as the implementation of variational autoencoder based representation. Furthermore, each workflow is applied to a range of feature sizes including NiO pillars within a La:SrMnO 3 matrix, ferroelectric domains in BiFeO 3 , and topological defects in graphene. The code developed in this manuscript is open sourced and will be released at github.com/nccreang/AE_Workflows .

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Genomic prediction of regional-scale performance in switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) by accounting for genotype-by-environment variation and yield surrogate traits

Switchgrass is a potential crop for bioenergy or carbon capture schemes, but further yield improvements through selective breeding are needed to encourage commercialization. To identify promising switchgrass germplasm for future breeding efforts, we conducted multisite and multitrait genomic prediction with a diversity panel of 630 genotypes from 4 switchgrass subpopulations (Gulf, Midwest, Coastal, and Texas), which were measured for spaced plant biomass yield across 10 sites. Our study focused on the use of genomic prediction to share information among traits and environments. Specifically, we evaluated the predictive ability of cross-validation (CV) schemes using only genetic data and the training set (cross-validation 1: CV1), a subset of the sites (cross-validation 2: CV2), and/or with 2 yield surrogates (flowering time and fall plant height). We found that genotype-by-environment interactions were largely due to the north–south distribution of sites. The genetic correlations between the yield surrogates and the biomass yield were generally positive (mean height r = 0.85; mean flowering time r = 0.45) and did not vary due to subpopulation or growing region (North, Middle, or South). Genomic prediction models had CV predictive abilities of –0.02 for individuals using only genetic data (CV1), but 0.55, 0.69, 0.76, 0.81, and 0.84 for individuals with biomass performance data from 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 sites included in the training data (CV2), respectively. To simulate a resource-limited breeding program, we determined the predictive ability of models provided with the following: 1 site observation of flowering time (0.39); 1 site observation of flowering time and fall height (0.51); 1 site observation of fall height (0.52); 1 site observation of biomass (0.55); and 5 site observations of biomass yield (0.84). The ability to share information at a regional scale is very encouraging, but further research is required to accurately translate spaced plant biomass to commercial-scale sward biomass performance.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk Assessment of Rare Events in Probabilistic Power Flow via Hybrid Multi-Surrogate Method

The risks associated with rare events threatening the security of power system operation are of paramount importance to power system planners and operators. To analyze the risks caused by high-impact, low-frequency rare events, an immensely large number of samples are typically required for the Monte-Carlo (MC) method on the high-fidelity power system model to achieve a sufficient accuracy, thereby rendering this approach computationally prohibitive. To handle this problem efficiently, it is desirable to construct a surrogate model for the power system response. However, the straightforward MC sampling of the low-fidelity surrogate can lead to biased results in the low-probability tail regions that are vital to risk assessment. Moreover, a single surrogate is unable to handle the topology uncertainties caused by random branch outages. To overcome these issues, we propose a hybrid multi-surrogate (HMS) method based on the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) with low-probability tail events reevaluated by the high-fidelity model through a probabilistic analysis. This method improves the computational efficiency of the MC method for rare-event risk assessment by leveraging multi-fidelity models while retaining the desired accuracy. Simulations conducted in three test systems verify the excellent performances of the HMS method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

3D analysis of TRISO fuel compacts via X-ray computed tomography

In this study, low-enriched uranium oxycarbide (LEUCO) and surrogate tristructural isotropic (TRISO)- coated-particle compacts with particle volumetric packing fractions of 25%, 40%, and 48% were imaged utilizing X-ray-computed tomography. Subsequent 3D image analysis identified and further quantified kernel size, sphericity, and observed porosity. In addition, the spatial distribution, coordination number, and kernel-nearest neighbors were analyzed and compared for the different packing fractions. Metrics such as observed porosity and sphericity enabled quantification and screening for abnormal kernels within TRISO compacts. Assessment of TRISO particle location confirmed and further quantified a non-uniform distribution of TRISO particles with the spatial distribution in the radial direction being roughly described as a dampened sinusoidal function. The amplitude and frequency of this non-uniform distribution increased with increasing packing fraction. Measured kernel-nearest neighbor distances indicated two regions along the radial surfaces of compacts where TRISO particles are more likely to be in intimate contact with one another. These regions were found: (1) at upper and lower faces of compacts (i.e., corners); (2) offset ~10% of a compact's length from the axial center near the exterior surface. Within these regions, small quantities of defective TRISO surrogate particles (48% packing fraction) and defective LEUCO TRISO particles (40% packing fraction) were found. No defective particles were found within 25% packing fraction LEUCO TRISO compacts.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2024

Mission and Vehicle-Level Updates for the Parallel Electric-Gas Architecture with Synergistic Utilization Scheme (PEGASUS) Concept Aircraft

NASA created the PEGASUS concept with the goal of lowering mission energy (a surrogate for operating cost) compared to other regional aircraft by leveraging electrified aircraft propulsion (EAP). Since its inception, researchers have explored multiple facets of PEGASUS in varying fidelity but have not completed a rigorous, integrated design. The goal of this memorandum is to provide an updated design using recent studies and improved methods. This memorandum explores the initial vehicle concept and concept of operations, while considering ways to improve both the mission concept of operations and the integrated vehicle-level performance. Additionally, the design and analysis methodologies for EAP-enabled aircraft concepts are improved in several areas. This research incorporates new propulsion-airframe integration and wing weight surrogates to model the impacts of wingtip propulsors on the configuration. Detailed weight and balance calculations enable calculating dynamic stability and flight qualities within the conceptual design environment. Ultimately, the vehicle is optimized to reduce "well-to-wake" equivalent CO2, CO2e, rather than minimizing either fuel (or total energy) consumption or maximum takeoff weight. Using fuel/energy or takeoff weight leads to conflicting optima for hybrid-electric aircraft. Two aircraft are developed to provide points of comparison for PEGASUS: an advanced conventional turboprop vehicle and a hybrid-electric variant. The results show that the PEGASUS concept can reduce CO2e relative to the advanced turboprop or a hybrid-electric propulsion architecture, albeit with an increase in maximum takeoff weight. PEGASUS's maximum takeoff weight is 55% heavier than the advanced conventional turboprop but releases 18% less CO2e for a 400 nmi mission. Over the same mission, PEGASUS's maximum takeoff weight is 47% heavier than the comparator hybrid-electric vehicle but releases 12% less CO2e. This study shows that the PEGASUS configuration reduces CO2e through its use of wingtip propulsors and that its benefit is not solely a result of switching to a hybrid-electric propulsion architecture. PEGASUS achieves this reduction in CO2e while maintaining satisfactory Level 1 or 2 flight qualities for all of its longitudinal- and lateral-directional modes.

Hybrid-electric↗
DOE OSTI2025

Parallel derivative-free optimization for simulation-based design of behind-the-meter energy systems

In this work, the integrated design and dispatch of behind-the-meter or distributed resources (e.g. stationary battery storage and solar PV generation) is considered. A simulation-based framework is employed, generating high-fidelity results with closed-loop predictive control at a fine resolution, at the expense of high computational cost (several minutes to a few hours per design point). To address this challenge, parallel derivative-free design methods are considered. Four methods are compared, including state-of-the-art surrogate-based methods (Radial-Basis Functions and Gaussian processes) and sampling strategies, an evolutionary-based method, and a simple sequential grid refinement method. As a case study, two types of design problem with increasing complexity are considered, namely, the design of behind-the-meter resources (three design variables) and the inclusion of grid capacity (four design variables). The second yields a constrained design problem for which violations can only be determined after solving the computationally expensive simulation. For the three-dimensional case, all methods present a good performance, achieving a solution within 1% of the optimum after the first iteration, with the sequential grid refinement exhibiting the fastest convergence and achieving the best final objective value. This indicates that the parallel evaluation of multiple sampling points may be more important than the choice of method for small decision spaces. For the four-dimensional constrained case, the Genetic Algorithm presents the best tradeoff between performance and computational effort, while the rough objective function terrain generated by constraint violation penalties reduces the performance of surrogate-based methods. Contour plots with flat regions indicate flexibility in the optimal design and highlight the importance of characterizing the solution space.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2004

Spaceborne microwave remote sensing of seasonal freeze-thaw processes in theterrestrial high l atitudes : relationships with land-atmosphere CO2 exchange

Landscape transitions between seasonally frozen and thawed conditions occur each year over roughly 50 million square kilometers of Earth's Northern Hemisphere. These relatively abrupt transitions represent the closest analog to a biospheric and hydrologic on/off switch existing in nature, affecting surface meteorological conditions, ecological trace gas dynamics, energy exchange and hydrologic activity profoundly. We utilize time series satellite-borne microwave remote sensing measurements from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) to examine spatial and temporal variability in seasonal freeze/thaw cycles for the pan-Arctic basin and Alaska. Regional measurements of spring thaw timing are derived using daily brightness temperature measurements from the 19 GHz, horizontally polarized channel, separately for overpasses with 6 AM and 6 PM equatorial crossing times. Spatial and temporal patterns in regional freeze/thaw dynamics show distinct differences between North America and Eurasia, and boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes. Annual anomalies in the timing of thawing in spring also correspond closely to seasonal atmospheric CO2 concentration anomalies derived from NOAA CMDL arctic and subarctic monitoring stations. Classification differences between AM and PM overpass data average approximately 5 days for the region, though both appear to be effective surrogates for monitoring annual growing seasons at high latitudes.

Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I)carbon cycle↗