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At least 19 records

Did Geomagnetic Activity Challenge Electric Power Reliability During Solar Cycle 23? Evidence from the PJM Regional Transmission Organization in North America

During solar cycle 22, a very intense geomagnetic storm on 13 March 1989 contributed to the collapse of the Hydro-Quebec power system in Canada. This event clearly demonstrated that geomagnetic storms have the potential to lead to blackouts. This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged power system reliability during solar cycle 23. Operations by PJM Interconnection, LLC (hereafter PJM), a regional transmission organization in North America, are examined over the period 1 April 2002 through 30 April 2004. During this time PJM coordinated the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia in the United States. We examine the relationship between a proxy of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and a metric of challenged reliability. In this study, GICs are proxied using magnetometer data from a geomagnetic observatory located just outside the PJM control area. The metric of challenged reliability is the incidence of out-of-economic-merit order dispatching due to adverse reactive power conditions. The statistical methods employed make it possible to disentangle the effects of GICs on power system operations from purely terrestrial factors. The results of the analysis indicate that geomagnetic activity can significantly increase the likelihood that the system operator will dispatch generating units based on system stability considerations rather than economic merit.

storms↗

STEM Analysis of Caenorhabditis elegans muscle thick filaments: evidence for microdifferentiated substructures

In the thick filaments of body muscle in Caenorhabditis elegans, myosin A and myosin B isoforms and a subpopulation of paramyosin, a homologue of myosin heavy chain rods, are organized about a tubular core. As determined by scanning transmission electron microscopy, the thick filaments show a continuous decrease in mass-per-length (MPL) from their central zones to their polar regions. This is consistent with previously reported morphological studies and suggests that both their content and structural organization are microdifferentiated as a function of position. The cores are composed of a second distinct subpopulation of paramyosin in association with the alpha, beta, and gamma-filagenins. MPL measurements suggest that cores are formed from seven subfilaments containing four strands of paramyosin molecules, rather than the two originally proposed. The periodic locations of the filagenins within different regions and the presence of a central zone where myosin A is located, implies that the cores are also microdifferentiated with respect to molecular content and structure. This differentiation may result from a novel "induced strain" assembly mechanism based upon the interaction of the filagenins, paramyosin and myosin A. The cores may then serve as "differentiated templates" for the assembly of myosin B and paramyosin in the tapering, microdifferentiated polar regions of the thick filaments.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗

Local Staple Food Price Indices in the Age of Biofuels

In many poor, food insecure regions, agriculture is a primary source of income and farmers are reliant both on their own production and on purchasing food in the market to feed their families. Large local food price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation and may be the consequence of weather-related food production declines, Dr can simply be the result of price transmission from the international commodity market. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets far from the places where the chronically food insecure live. A much better understanding of how local staple food prices in isolated regions such as West Africa that grow most of the food they eat to better understand the impact of global commodity market transformations on sensitive communities at the margin. This information will also enable improved strategies for these farmers who are extraordinarily sensitive to climate change impacts on agricultural growing conditions.

Brown, Molly E.↗

Microwave power transmission system studies. Volume 2: Introduction, organization, environmental and spaceborne systems analyses

Introduction, organization, analyses, conclusions, and recommendations for each of the spaceborne subsystems are presented. Environmental effects - propagation analyses are presented with appendices covering radio wave diffraction by random ionospheric irregularities, self-focusing plasma instabilities and ohmic heating of the D-region. Analyses of dc to rf conversion subsystems and system considerations for both the amplitron and the klystron are included with appendices for the klystron covering cavity circuit calculations, output power of the solenoid-focused klystron, thermal control system, and confined flow focusing of a relativistic beam. The photovoltaic power source characteristics are discussed as they apply to interfacing with the power distribution flow paths, magnetic field interaction, dc to rf converter protection, power distribution including estimates for the power budget, weights, and costs. Analyses for the transmitting antenna consider the aperture illumination and size, with associated efficiencies and ground power distributions. Analyses of subarray types and dimensions, attitude error, flatness, phase error, subarray layout, frequency tolerance, attenuation, waveguide dimensional tolerances, mechanical including thermal considerations are included. Implications associated with transportation, assembly and packaging, attitude control and alignment are discussed. The phase front control subsystem, including both ground based pilot signal driven adaptive and ground command approaches with their associated phase errors, are analyzed.

Maynard, O. E.↗

Individual Aerosol Particles from Biomass Burning in Southern Africa: Compositions and Size Distributions of Carbonaceous Particles - 1

Individual aerosol particles in smoke plumes from biomass fires and in regional hazes in southern Africa were studied using analytical transmission electron microscopy (TEM), which allowed detailed characterization of carbonaceous particle types in smoke and determination of changes in particle properties and concentrations during smoke aging. Based on composition, morphology, and microstructure, three distinct types of carbonaceous particles were present in the smoke: organic particles with inorganic (K-salt) inclusions, tar ball particles, and soot. The relative number concentrations of organic particles were largest in young smoke, whereas tar balls were dominant in a slightly aged (1 hour) smoke from a smoldering fire. Flaming fires emitted relatively more soot particles than smoldering fires, but soot was a minor constituent of all studied plumes. Further aging caused the accumulation of sulfate on organic and soot particles, as indicated by the large number of internally mixed organic/sulfate and soot/sulfate particles in the regional haze. Externally mixed ammonium sulfate particles dominated in the boundary layer hazes, whereas organic/sulfate particles were the most abundant type in the upper hazes. Apparently, elevated haze layers were more strongly affected by biomass smoke than those within the boundary layer. Based on size distributions and the observed patterns of internal mixing, we hypothesize that organic and soot particles are the cloud-nucleating constituents of biomass smoke aerosols. Sea-salt particles dominated in the samples taken in stratus clouds over the Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of Namibia, whereas a distinct haze layer above the clouds consisted of aged biomass smoke particles.

Posfai, Mihaly↗

Optical constraints of kerogen from 0.15 to 40 microns: Comparison with meteoritic organics

Kerogens are dark, complex organic materials produced on the Earth primarily by geologic processing of biologic materials, but kerogens have chemical and spectral similarities to some classes of highly processed extraterrestrial organic materials. Kerogen-like solids were proposed as constitutents of the very dark reddish surfaces of some asteroids and are also spectrally similar to some carbonaceous organic residues and the Iapetus dark material. Kerogen can thus serve as a useful laboratory analog to very dark, spectrally red extraterrestrial materials; its optical constants can be used to investigate the effects of particle size, void space and mixing of bright and dark components in models of scattering by dark asteroidal, cometary, and satellite surfaces. Measurements of the optical constants of both Type 2 kerogen and of macromolecular organic residue from the Murchison carbonaceous chondrite via transmission and reflection measurements on thin films are reported. The real part of the refractive index, n, is determined by variable incidence-angle reflectance to be 1.60 + or - 0.05 from 0.4 to 2.0 micrometers wavelength. Work extending the measurement of n to longer wavelengths is in progress. The imaginary part of the refractive index, k, shows substantial structure from 0.15 to 40 micrometers. The values are accurate to + or - 20 percent in the UV and IR regions and to + or - 30 percent in the visible. The k values of organic residues were also measured from the Murchison meteorite. Comparison of the kerogen and Murchison data reveals that between 0.15 and 40 microns, Murchison has a similar structure but no bands as sharp as in kerogen, and that the k values for Murchison are significantly higher than those of kerogen.

Khare, Bishun N.↗

Contamination of optical surfaces in Earth orbit

Glass and glass ceramic samples exposed to the low earth orbit environment for approximately 5.5 years on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) were found to display limited degradation in optical transmission. Commercial optical quality fused silica samples display decreases in transmission in the 200 to 400 nm wavelength region, and this degradation appears to be a consequence of surface contamination. The contamination, found only on internal surfaces of samples, was measured by medium energy backscattering spectrometry and found to be primarily carbon. Additional thin film contamination by a species with atomic mass near 64, which was present at the level of about 8 x 10 exp 14/sq. cm has not been identified. These observations are consistent with the interpretation that organic binders used in the black absorbing paint (Chem Glaze Z-306) inside the sample holding tray were concentrated in the vicinity of the samples and photolytically cracked by solar UV radiation. The resulting decomposition products were deposited on the interior sample surface and gave rise to the optical transmission loss. No detectable contamination was observed on the external or space exposed surface of the samples. No measurable damage was detected which could be attributed to the direct action of gamma or UV radiation on the glass samples. These results emphasize the need for special precautions in the preparation of spacecraft carrying precision optical components on long duration missions.

Donald L Kinser↗

Electronic Switching Spherical Array (ESSA) antenna systems

ESSA (Electronic Switching Spherical Array) is an antenna system conceived, developed and qualified for linking satellite data transmissions with NASA's tracking and data relay satellites (TDRSS) and tracking and data acquisition satellites (TDAS). ESSA functions in the S band frequency region, cover 2 pi or more steradians with directional gain and operates in multiple selectable modes. ESSA operates in concert with the NASA's TDRS standard transponder in the retrodirective mode or independently in directional beam, program track and special modes. Organizations and projects to the ESSA applications for NASA's space use are introduced. Coverage gain, weight power and implementation and other performance information for satisfying a wide range of data rate requirements are included.

Hockensmith, R. P.↗

Automation and AI in Space Drilling

Future planetary surface sampling missions, such as delving past the near-surface ice layers on Mars in search of organics and possibly signs of past/extant life, will require lightweight, low-mass planetary drilling and sample handling. Unlike terrestrial drills, these exploration drills must work dry (without drilling muds or gas), blind (no prior local or regional seismic or other surveys), and light (very low downward force or weight on bit, and perhaps 100 W available from solar power or batteries). Given the lightspeed transmission delays to Mars and outward, an exploratory planetary drill cannot be controlled directly from Earth. Drills that penetrate deeper than a few centimeters are likely to get stuck if operated open-loop (the MSL drill only penetrates 5 cm, and the MER Rock Abrasion Tools 5 mm by comparison), so some form of local drill control is required. In the relatively near-term, human crews cannot be presumed to be available for surface instrument teleoperation. Therefore highly automated drill and sample-transfer operations will be required, to explore the subsurface with the ability to safe robotic drilling systems and recover and continue on from the most probable fault conditions. Current automation, scheduling and diagnostic approaches will be discussed that roughly track the actions and roles of humans in terrestrial manual drilling operations.

drill automation↗

A Study of Direct and Cloud-Mediated Radiative Forcing of Climate Due to Aerosols

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported that in the southeastern US and eastern China, the general greenhouse warming due to anthropogenic gaseous emissions is dominated by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. To verify this model prediction in eastern China and southeastern US, we analyzed regional patterns of climate changes at 72 stations in eastern China during 1951- 94 (44 years), and at 52 stations in the southeastern US during 1949-94 (46 years) to detect the fingerprint of aerosol radiative forcing. It was found that the mean rates of change of annual mean daily, maximum, minimum temperatures and diurnal temperature range (DTR) in eastern China were 0.8, -0.2, 1.8, and -2.0 C/100 years respectively, while the mean rates of change of annual mean daily, maximum, minimum temperatures and DTR in the southeastern US were -0.2, -0.6, 0.2, and -0.8 C/100 years, respectively. This indicates that the high rate of increase in annual mean minimum temperature in eastern China results in a slightly warming trend of daily temperature, while the high rate of decrease in annual mean maximum temperature and low rate of increase in annual mean minimum temperature lead to the cooling trend of daily temperature in the southeastern US. We found that the warming from the longwave forcing due to both greenhouse gases and aerosols was completely counteracted by the shortwave aerosol forcing in the southeastern US in the past 46 years. A slightly overall warming trend in eastern China is evident; winters have become milder. This finding is explained by hypothesizing that increasing energy usage during the past 44 years has resulted in more coal and biomass burning, thus increasing the emission of absorbing soot and organic aerosols in eastern China. Such emissions, in addition to well-known Asia dust and greenhouse gases, may be responsible for the winter warming trend in eastern China that we have reported here. The sensitivity of aerosol radiative properties to aerosol composition, size distribution, relative humidity (RH) is examined for the following aerosol systems: inorganic and organic ions (Cl-, Br-, NO3 -, SO4 2-, Na+, NH4 +, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, HCOO-, CH3COO-, CH3CH2COO-, CH3COCOO-, OOCCOO2-, MSA-1); water-insoluble inorganic and organic compounds (elemental carbon, n-alkanes, SiO2, Al2O3, Fe2O3 and other organic compounds). The partial molar refraction method was used to calculate the real part of the refractive index. It was found that the asymmetry factor increased by approximately 48% with the real part varying from 1.40 to 1.65, and the single scattering albedo decreased by 24% with the imaginary part varying from -0.005 to -0.1. The asymmetry factor increased by 5.4 times with the geometric standard deviation varying from 1.2 to 3.0. The radiation transmission is very sensitive to the change in size distribution; other factors are not as significant. To determine the aerosol direct radiative forcing (ADRF), the aerosol optical depth (AOD) values at the three operational wavelengths (415, 500 and 673 nm) were determined at a regionally representative site, namely, Mt. Gibbs (35.78 deg N, 82.29 deg W, elevation 2006 m) in Mt. Mitchell State Park, NC, and a site located in an adjacent valley (Black Mountain, 35.66 deg N, 82.38 deg W, elevation 951 m) in the southeastern US. The two sites are separated horizontally by 10 km and vertically by 1 km. It was found that the representative total AOD values at 500 nm at the valley site for highly polluted (HP), marine (M) and continental (C) air masses were 0.68 +/- 0.33, 0.29 +/- 0.19 and 0.10 +/- 0.04, respectively. A search-graph method was used to retrieve the columnar size distribution (number concentration N, effective radius reff and geometric standard deviation=?g) from the optical depth observations at three operational wavelengths. The ground albedo, single scattering albedo and imaginary part of the refractive index were calculated using a mathematically unique procedure involving a Mie code and a radiative transfer code in conjunction with the retrieved aerosol size distribution, AOD, and diffuse-direct irradiance ratio. It was found that N, r(eff) and sigma(g) were in the ranges of 10 to 1.7 x 10(exp 4)/cubic cm, 0.09 to 0.68 micrometers and 1.12 to 2.95, respectively. The asymmetry factor and single scattering albedo were in the ranges of 0.63 to 0.75 and 0.74 to 0.97 respectively. The ground albedo for the forested terrain and imaginary part of refractive index were found to be in the ranges of 0.06 to 0.29 and 0.005 to 0.051 respectively. On the basis of these aerosol radiative properties obtained at the research sites and computations using the Column Radiation Model (CRM) of National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM3), it was found that the average cloud-free 24-hour ADRF values were -13 +/- 8, -8 +/- 3, -33 +/- 16 W/square m for marine, continental, and polluted air masses, respectively. On the assumption that the fractional coverage of clouds is 0.61, it was estimated that the annual mean ADRF was 7 +/- 2 W/square m in the southeastern US. The review with respect to the current knowledge of organic acids shows that aerosol formate and acetate concentrations range from 0.02 to 5.3 nmol/cubic m and from 0.03 to 12.4 nmol/cubic m respectively, and that between 34% to 77% of formate and between 21% to 66% of acetate are present in the fine fraction of aerosols. It was found that although most (98-99%) of these volatile organic acids were present in the gas phase, their concentrations in the aerosol particles were sufficient to make them a good candidate for cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). It is hypothesized that organic acids are at least one of the primary sources of CCN in the atmosphere due to their ubiquitous presence in the troposphere, especially over the continental forested areas. The results of our measurements at Palmer Station, Antarctica show that the daily average CCN concentrations at 0.3% and 1% supersaturations ranged from 0.3 to 160/cubic cm and from 4 to 168/cubic cm, respectively, during the period from 17 January to 26 February, 1994. New evidence for substantial and definitive CCN enhancement near and within cloud has been observed at Mt. Mitchell, North Carolina. The results show that the average monthly CCN concentrations were 460 +/- 217, 386 +/- 286, 429 +/- 228 and 238 +/- 134/cubic cm for in-cloud, overcast, clear and rainy conditions, respectively. The typical CCN spectra show that there were a lot of small CCN produced and the ion concentrations (especially H+ and SO4 2-) were very high during the CCN enhancement period. The significantly positive correlation between black carbon (BC) and CCN at 1% supersaturation indicates that a percentage of the BC measured at the site may be in the form of an internal mixture and participated in the formation of CCN.

Yu, Shao-Cai↗

BOLAS: A Canadian-US Ionospheric Tether Mission

Everyday, international broadcasters, ships, and aircraft use a naturally conducting atmospheric layer, the ionosphere, to reflect communications signals over the Earth's horizon. A better understanding of this layer, with its irregularities, instabilities, and dynamics, would improve communications transmission and reception. This atmospheric layer is also a lens that can distort signal transmissions from communications, navigation, and surveillance satellites. The ionosphere over Canada and other high latitude countries can carry large currents and is particularly dynamic, so that a scientific understanding of this layer is critical. The BOLAS (Bistatic Observations using Low Altitude Satellites) mission would characterize reflective and transmissive properties of the ionosphere by flying two satellites, each with identical HF receivers, dipole antennas, particle probes, and GPS receivers. The satellites would be connected by a non-conducting tether to maintain a 100 m separation, and would cartwheel in the orbit plane to spatially survey the ionosphere. The six-month mission would fly in a high inclination, 350 x 600 km orbit, and would be active during passes over the auroral region of Canada. This paper discusses the system requirements and architecture, spacecraft and operations concepts, and mission design, as well as team organization, international cooperation and the scientific and technological benefits that are expected.

Tyc, George↗

New Techniques in Characterization of Ferroelectric Materials

Two new techniques have been developed to characterize Pb(Mg1/3Nb2/3)O3-PbTiO3 (PMN-PT) based ferroelectric single crystals: (i) electro-thermal imaging, and (ii) single crystal x-ray diffraction in the transmission mode. (i) Electro-thermal imaging is a remote sensing technique that can detect the polarization direction and poling state of a whole crystal slice. This imaging technique utilizes an IR camera to determine the field induced temperature change and does not require any special or destructive sample preparation. In the resulting images it is possible to distinguish regions of 180 deg domains. This powerful technique can be used remotely during poling to determine the poling state of the crystal to avoid over-poling that can result in inferior properties and/or cracking of the crystals. Electro-thermal imaging produced the first direct observations of polarization rotation. Under bipolar field, the domains near the corners were the first to switch direction. As the field increased above the coercive field, domains at the center part of the crystals switched direction. (ii) X-ray diffraction in the transmission mode has long been used in structure determination of organic crystals and proteins; however, it is not used much to characterize inorganic systems. 0.7Pb(Mg1/3Nb2/3)O3-0.3PbTiO3 single crystals were examined by this XRD technique for the first time, and a never-before-seen super-lattice was revealed with a doubling of the unit cell in all three directions, giving a cell volume eight times that of a traditional perovskite unit cell. The significance of the super-lattice peaks increased with poling, indicating a structural contribution to ordering. Lack of such observations by electron diffraction in the transmission electron microscope examinations suggests the presence of a bulk effect.

Sehirlioglu, Alp↗

Carbon Tracers of Aqueous Processes: Isotopic Analysis of Cr Carbonate Grains With Implications for Bennu Samples

Carbonate grains in carbonaceous chondrites record aqueous alteration events on the asteroidal parent bodies, including evidence for episodic alteration, timing of alteration, and time and temperature evolution of volatiles. Spectral features in the 3.4 μm region at asteroid Bennu have been interpreted as coming from carbonate minerals. Coordinated analysis of carbonate grains will be a valuable tool for analysis of Bennu samples, and related analysis of analog materials provides important context for understanding aqueous alteration of carbonaceous asteroids more broadly. To that end, our team is analyzing carbonates in Bennu analog materials, using Raman spectroscopy to identify carbonates and assess the maturity of related organic materials, vacuum reflectance spectroscopy from the ultraviolet through thermal infrared range to constrain contributions from carbonates and organics, X-ray microtomography and electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) to assess the distribution of void space, transmission electron microscopy to characterize space weathering effects, and EPMA and secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) to measure composition and isotopic ratios. Here, we describe in situ analysis of carbon and oxygen isotopes from carbonates in Grosvenor Mountains (GRO) 95577.

K E Miller↗

The determination of HNO3 column amounts from tunable diode laser heterodyne spectrometer spectra taken at Jungfruajoch, Switzerland

In May of 1991 a tunable diode laser heterodyne spectrometer built by the National Physical Laboratory was operated at the International Scientific Station of the Jungfraujoch (46.5 deg N, 8.0 deg E, altitude 3.56 km). Nitric acid spectra in the region of 868 wavenumbers were recorded at sunset and sunrise on two separate days at a resolution of 0.0013 wavenumbers with a signal-to-noise ratio of approximately 130:1. A vertical column amount of HNO3 of 1.61 x 10(exp 16) molecules/sq cm was determined using an atmospheric transmission model developed at the University of Denver. The mean of a number of mid-latitude, northern hemisphere profiles was used as the initial profile for the inversion. A comparison of different initial profiles provides information on the sensitivity of the retrieved column amount of 1.61 x 10(exp 16) molecules/sq cm lies within the range of values published in the World Meteorological Organization Report no. 16 (1986), but is considerably larger than the value of (0.99 - 1.29) x 10(exp 16) reported by Rinsland et al. (1991) for June during the period 1986 to 1990.

Fogal, P. F.↗

Laboratory Instruments Available to Support Space Station Researchers at Marshall Space Flight Center

A number of research instruments are available at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to support ISS researchers and their investigations. These modern analytical tools yield valuable and sometimes new informative resulting from sample characterization. Instruments include modern scanning electron microscopes equipped with field emission guns providing analytical capabilities that include angstron-level image resolution of dry, wet and biological samples. These microscopes are also equipped with silicon drift X-ray detectors (SDD) for fast yet precise analytical mapping of phases, as well as electron back-scattered diffraction (EBSD) units to map grain orientations in crystalline alloys. Sample chambers admit large samples, provide variable pressures for wet samples, and quantitative analysis software to determine phase relations. Advances in solid-state electronics have also facilitated improvements for surface chemical analysis that are successfully employed to analyze metallic materials and alloys, ceramics, slags, and organic polymers. Another analytical capability at MSFC is a mganetic sector Secondary Ion Mass Spectroscopy (SIMS) that quantitatively determines and maps light elements such as hydrogen, lithium, and boron along with their isotopes, identifies and quantifies very low level impurities even at parts per billion (ppb) levels. Still other methods available at MSFC include X-ray photo-electron spectroscopy (XPS) that can determine oxidation states of elements as well as identify polymers and measure film thicknesses on coated materials, Scanning Auger electron spectroscopy (SAM) which combines surface sensitivity, spatial lateral resolution (approximately 20 nm), and depth profiling capabilities to describe elemental compositions in near surface regions and even the chemical state of analyzed atoms. Conventional Transmission Electron Microscope (TEM) for observing internal microstructures at very high magnifications and the Electron Probe Micro-analyzer (EPMA) for very precise microanalysis are available as needed by the researcher. Space Station researchers are invited to work with MSFC in analyzing their samples using these techniques.

Panda, Binayak↗

Ocean Color Data at the Goddard DAAC

The apparent color of the ocean is determined by the interactions of incident light with substances or particles present in the water. The most significant constituents are free-floating photosynthetic organisms (phytoplankton) and inorganic particulates. Phytoplankton contain chlorophyll, which absorbs light at blue and red wavelengths and transmits in the green. Particulate matter can reflect and absorb light, which reduces the clarity (light transmission) of the water. Substances dissolved in water can also affect its color. Observations of ocean color from space, utilizing sensors specially designed to detect the small amount of light radiating from the sea surface, provide a global picture of the patterns of biological productivity in the world's oceans. For that reason, ocean color remote sensing data is a vital resource for biological oceanography. Unlike the limited area of the ocean that can be investigated from a research ship, data from a satellite sensor covers a large region and provides a comprehensive view of the marine environment.

Source record↗

Assessing Malaria Risks in Greater Mekong Subregion based on Environmental Parameters

At 4,200 km, the Mekong River is the tenth longest river in the world. It directly and indirectly influences the lives of hundreds of millions of inhabitants in its basin. The riparian countries - Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and a small part of China - form the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). This geographical region has the misfortune of being the world's epicenter of falciparum malaria, which is the most severe form of malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum. Depending on the country, approximately 50 to 90% of all malaria cases are due to this species. In the Malaria Modeling and Surveillance Project, we have been developing techniques to enhance public health s decision capability for malaria risk assessments and controls. The main objectives are: 1) identifying the potential breeding sites for major vector species; 2) implementing a malaria transmission model to identify the key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission; and 3) implementing a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity. The potential benefits are: 1) increased warning time for public health organizations to respond to malaria outbreaks; 2) optimized utilization of pesticide and chemoprophylaxis; 3) reduced likelihood of pesticide and drug resistance; and 4) reduced damage to environment. Environmental parameters important to malaria transmission include temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and vegetation conditions. The NASA Earth science data sets that have been used for malaria surveillance and risk assessment include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP, and SIESIP. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Socioeconomic factors that may influence malaria transmissions will also be incorporated into the predictive models.

Kiang, Richard↗

Malaria Modeling and Surveillance for the Greater Mekong Subregion

At 4,200 km, the Mekong River is the tenth longest river in the world. It directly and indirectly influences the lives of hundreds of millions of inhabitants in its basin. The riparian countries - Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and a small part of China - form the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). This geographical region has the misfortune of being the world's epicenter of falciparum malaria, which is the most severe form of malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum. Depending on the country, approximately 50 to 90% of all malaria cases are due to this species. In the Malaria Modeling and Surveillance Project, we have been developing techniques to enhance public health's decision capability for malaria risk assessments and controls. The main objectives are: 1) Identifying the potential breeding sites for major vector species; 2) Implementing a malaria transmission model to identify the key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission; and 3) Implementing a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity. The potential benefits are: 1) Increased warning time for public health organizations to respond to malaria outbreaks; 2) Optimized utilization of pesticide and chemoprophylaxis; 3) Reduced likelihood of pesticide and drug resistance; and 4) Reduced damage to environment. Environmental parameters important to malaria transmission include temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and vegetation conditions. These parameters are extracted from NASA Earth science data sets. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records.

Kiang, Richard↗