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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Quality control and crop characterization framework for multi-temporal UAV LiDAR data over mechanized agricultural fields

Recent developments in remote sensing are enabling automatic, high resolution, and non-destructive survey of agriculture fields, providing the key basis for advancing plant breeding. Among the used remote sensing modalities, LiDAR has attracted wide attention for its ability to directly provide accurate 3D information. Despite the increasing utilization of LiDAR technology in phenotyping, there is still a lack of effective quality control strategies, in particular, quality control of LiDAR data collected on a multi-temporal basis. This study proposes a targetless framework for multi-temporal LiDAR data quality control and crop characterization in mechanized agricultural fields. Features extracted from the fields – terrain patches and row/alley locations – are utilized for evaluating the vertical and planimetric relative accuracy of the point clouds. Row/alley locations in the field are automatically identified from the point clouds based on the assumption that higher point density and/or higher elevation correspond to plant locations. The performance of the proposed quality control strategies is evaluated using multi-temporal datasets collected in agricultural fields of different sizes, orientation, crops, and growth stages. The result shows that the net vertical and planimetric discrepancies between multi-temporal point clouds are ±3 cm and ±8 cm, respectively. While the former reflects the actual accuracy of the point clouds, the latter is a combined effect of the LiDAR point cloud accuracy, rasterization artifacts, crop type, growth pattern, and wind condition during data acquisition. In terms of row and alley detection, the result shows that the proposed strategy achieves high performance and can deal with different planting orientation, crop types, growth stages, canopy cover, and planting density. In conclusion, this study presents a quality control framework for multi-temporal LiDAR data. Finally, the row and alley detection leads to automated extraction of plots, and hence facilitates the use of remotely sensed data for automated phenotyping.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparative Analysis of TCR and TCR-pMHC Complex Structure Prediction Tools

The rapid development of computational approaches for predicting the structures of T cell receptors (TCRs) and TCR-peptide-major histocompatibility (TCR-pMHC) complexes, accelerated by AI breakthroughs such as AlphaFold, has made it feasible to calculate these structures with increasing accuracy. Although these tools show great potential, their relative accuracy and limitations remain unclear due to the lack of standardized benchmarks. Here, we systematically evaluate seven tools for predicting isolated TCR structures together with six tools for predicting TCR-pMHC complex structures. The methods include homology-based approaches, general prediction tools using AlphaFold, TCR-specific tools derived from AlphaFold2, and the newly developed tFold-TCR model. The evaluation uses a post-training data set comprising 40 αβ TCRs and 27 TCR-pMHC complexes (21 Class I and 6 Class II). Model accuracy is assessed at global, local, and interface levels using a variety of metrics. We find that each tool offers distinct advantages in various aspects of its predictions. AlphaFold2, AlphaFold3, and tFold-TCR excel in overall accuracy of TCR structure prediction, and TCRmodel2 and AlphaFold2 perform well in overall accuracy of TCR-pMHC structure prediction. However, TCR-specific tools derived from AlphaFold2 show lower accuracy in the framework region than both homology-based methods and general-purpose tools such as AlphaFold, and challenges remain for all in modeling CDR3 loops, docking orientations, TCR-peptide interfaces, and Class II MHC-peptide interfaces. Furthermore, these findings will guide researchers in selecting appropriate tools, emphasize the importance of using multiple evaluation metrics to assess model performance, and offer suggestions for improving TCR and TCR-pMHC structure prediction tools.

Chemical structure↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical-embedding autoencoder with a predictor as efficient architecture for learning time-evolution in multi-scale turbulent flows

We introduce a scale-aware, data-driven deep learning modeling framework for accurately predicting the time evolution of multi-scale turbulent plasma and liquid flows. The approach is motivated by the idea of scale separation. Structures of vastly different length scales emerge in these systems, and interactions between these structures occur only locally. To exploit this structure, the flow state is transformed by a hierarchical, fully convolutional autoencoder, not into a single embedding layer as in conventional convolutional surrogate models, but into a series of embedding layers. A stepwise training strategy ensures that fine-scale features are encoded on a high-resolution grid, while larger structures are represented on progressively coarser layers. The time evolution predictor advances all embedding layers in sync, capturing local interactions between features at the same scale as well as between all scales. This approach enables efficient modeling of multi-scale systems since negligible interactions between distant, small-scale structures do not need to be directly modeled. Our hierarchical-embedding autoencoder with a predictor framework is evaluated on canonical examples of multi-scale turbulence: two-dimensional Kolmogorov flow and Hasegawa–Wakatani plasma turbulence. In both cases, the proposed framework significantly improves predictive accuracy relative to conventional convolutional network architectures. A significant improvement in prediction accuracy was observed for crucial statistical characteristics of the Hasegawa–Wakatani plasma as well as for individual trajectories of the Kolmogorov flow turbulence. Importantly, the model's rollout for the Hasegawa–Wakatani problem demonstrates a four-order-of-magnitude speedup compared to traditional numerical solvers.

Khrabry, Alexander I. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning enables reconstruction of past fire regimes from charcoal-derived fire intensity and fuel composition

Background Fire is a foundational ecological process that shapes ecosystem structure, diversity, and resilience. Quantifying paleofire regime attributes such as frequency, severity, and intensity is essential for understanding the historical range of variability in fire behavior and its ecological effects. While frequency and severity are often reconstructed in paleofire studies, quantitative reconstructions of fire intensity remain limited. Recent work has shown that maximum pyrolysis temperature—a proxy for fire intensity—and plant species type can be inferred from charcoal using transmission Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. However, the sample preparation for transmission FTIR is destructive and time-consuming, limiting application and reuse of materials for other analyses. We evaluated reflectance FTIR spectroscopy as a non-destructive alternative for reconstructing combustion temperature and plant species from laboratory-generated charcoal. We also examined the influence of contrasting airflow environments (ambient air versus nitrogen-rich) on pyrolysis temperature and plant species reconstruction prediction accuracies and compared predictive performance between a novel, neural network–based deep learning model with the traditional modern analogue technique (MAT) using k-nearest neighbor functions. As proof of concept, we apply our enhanced methodology to ancient charcoal to demonstrate applicability at improving long-term fire regime reconstructions and the ability to link paleofire records with contemporary fire ecology. Results Our analysis shows that transmission and reflectance FTIR spectra yield comparable spectral profiles. However, sample preparation for reflectance FTIR is minimal and non-destructive, unlike transmission FTIR which is destructive. We demonstrate that oxygen environments improved reconstruction accuracy relative to nitrogen-rich conditions. Finally, our deep learning neural network (DL) achieved testing accuracies of 98.7% for temperature and 96.2% for species identification, outperforming MAT’s k-NN approach (89.8% and 65.9%, respectively). A Shapley importance analysis identified 5 key spectral regions that greatly influenced the model’s temperature or species categorization. When applied to ancient charcoal, our results show historic fires from the most recent past primarily burned at low intensities (400–500 °C), reflective of natural fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests. Our results corroborate charcoal morphology data that suggests all ancient charcoal originated from burned woody plant types. Conclusions By combining reflectance FTIR spectroscopy with a deep learning approach, we provide the first accuracies high enough to confidently identify both species and temperature from laboratory-produced charcoal, improving quantitative reconstructions of fire intensity and fuel composition from paleofire records. This opens a wide range of research into the link between fire and larger drivers (i.e., climate or human) and greater ecological understanding of fire regimes beyond that of burn scars or recent observations. These methodological improvements have direct relevance for fire management by improving interpretation of historical fire behavior, informing fuel–fire relationships, and providing a scalable analytical framework applicable to both long-term ecological studies and contemporary fire science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards Elucidating Structure–Spectra Relationships in Rhamnogalacturonan II: Computational Protocols for Accurate 13C and 1H Shifts for Apiose and Its Borate Esters

Apiose is a naturally occurring, uncommon branched-chain pentose found in plant cell walls as part of the complex polysaccharide Rhamnogalacturonan II (RG-II). The structural elucidation of the three-dimensional structure of RG-II by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy is significantly complicated by the ability of apiose to cross-link via borate ester linkages to form RG-II dimers. Here, we developed a computational approach to gain insight into the structure–spectra relationships of apio–borate complexes in an effort to complement experimental assignments of NMR signals in RG-II. Our protocol involved structure optimizations using density functional theory (DFT) followed by isotropic magnetic shielding constant calculations using the gauge-invariant atomic orbital (GIAO) approach to predict chemical shifts. We evaluated the accuracy of 23 different functional–basis set (FBS) combinations with and without implicit solvation for predicting the experimental 1 H and 13 C shifts of a methyl apioside and its three borate derivatives. The computed NMR predictions were evaluated on the basis of the overall shift accuracy, relative shift ordering, and the ability to distinguish between dimers and monomers. We demonstrate that the consideration of implicit solvation during geometry optimizations in addition to the magnetic shielding constant calculations greatly increases the accuracy of NMR chemical shift predictions and can correctly reproduce the ordering of the 13 C shifts and yield predictions that are, on average, within 1.50 ppm for 13 C and 0.12 ppm for 1 H shifts for apio–borate compounds.

BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES,BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accuracy of ghost rotationally invariant slave-boson and dynamical mean field theory as a function of the impurity-model bath size

Here, we compare the accuracy of the ghost rotationally invariant slave-boson (g-RISB) theory and dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) on the single-band Hubbard model, as a function of the number of bath sites in the embedding impurity Hamiltonian. Our benchmark calculations confirm that the accuracy of g-RISB can be systematically improved by increasing the number of bath sites, similar to DMFT. With a few bath sites, we observe that g-RISB is systematically more accurate than DMFT for the ground-state observables. On the other hand, the relative accuracy of these methods is generally comparable for the quasiparticle weight and the spectral function. As expected, we observe that g-RISB satisfies the variational principle in infinite dimensions, as the total energy decreases monotonically towards the exact value as a function of the number of bath sites, suggesting that the g-RISB wave function may approach the exact ground state in infinite dimensions. Our results suggest that the g-RISB is a promising method for first-principles simulations of strongly correlated matter, which can capture the behavior of both static and dynamical observables, at a relatively low computational cost.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning for seismic low-frequency extrapolation

The cycle-skipping problem that plagues full waveform inversion (FWI) can be at least partially mitigated if low frequencies (which encode the kinematics of wave propagation in seismic data) are recorded. However, seismic sources and receivers are band-limited, so seismic data does not generally include signals down to 0 Hz. To improve our ability to solve the seismic inverse problem, one can synthesize this missing low-frequency (LF) content from the recorded high-frequency (HF) data using machine learning (ML) models. Deep learning models such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) demonstrate impressive ability to perform low frequency extrapolation. However, such models require powerful hardware (GPU machines) and careful training. We assess the extrapolation capabilities of three different ML models that do not require GPU machines, namely, random forest, Gaussian process regression and gradient boosting, on both synthetic and real data. Experimental results on two synthetic data sets (generated from a low velocity lens embedded in a homogeneous medium, and the Marmousi model) demonstrate that FWI applied to the extrapolated data consistently improves inversion accuracy relative to FWI applied to the original data sets that do not contain low frequencies. Application of low-frequency extrapolation to real data from the Northwest Shelf of Australia demonstrates that tree-based ML models such as gradient boosting can outperform CNNs in terms of both accuracy and computational cost on non-GPU architectures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Computationally Predicted High-Throughput Free-Energy Phase Diagrams for the Discovery of Solid-State Hydrogen Storage Reactions

The design of multinary solid-state material systems that undergo reversible phase changes via changes in temperature and pressure provides a potential means of safely storing hydrogen. However, fully mapping the stabilities of known or newly targeted compounds relative to competing phases at reaction conditions has previously required many stringent experiments or computationally demanding calculations of each compound’s change in Gibbs energy with respect to temperature, G(T). Here, we have extended the approach of constructing chemical potential phase diagrams based on ΔG f (T) to enable the analysis of phase stability at non-zero temperatures. We first performed density functional theory calculations to compute the formation enthalpies of binary, ternary, and quaternary compounds within several compositional spaces of current interest for solid-state hydrogen storage. Temperature effects on solid compound stability were then accounted for using our recently introduced machine learned descriptor for the temperature-dependent contribution G δ (T) to the Gibbs energy G(T). From these Gibbs energies, we evaluated each compound’s stability relative to competing compounds over a wide range of conditions and show using chemical potential and composition phase diagrams that the predicted stable phases and H2 release reactions are consistent with experimental observations. This demonstrates that our approach rapidly computes the thermochemistry of hydrogen release reactions for compounds at sufficiently high accuracy relative to experiment to provide a powerful framework for analyzing hydrogen storage materials. This framework based on G(T) enables the accelerated discovery of active materials for a variety of technologies that rely on solid-state reactions involving these materials.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing the regularization in size-consistent second-order Brillouin-Wigner perturbation theory

Despite its simplicity and relatively low computational cost, second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory (MP2) is well-known to overbind noncovalent interactions between polarizable monomers and some organometallic bonds. In such situations, the pairwise-additive correlation energy expression in MP2 is inadequate. Although energy-gap dependent amplitude regularization can substantially improve the accuracy of conventional MP2 in these regimes, the same regularization parameter worsens the accuracy for small molecule thermochemistry and density-dependent properties. Recently, we proposed a repartitioning of Brillouin-Wigner perturbation theory that is size-consistent to second order (BW-s2), and a free parameter ($α$) was set to recover the exact dissociation limit of H 2 in a minimal basis set. Alternatively $α$ can be viewed as a regularization parameter, where each value of $α$ represents a valid variant of BW-s2, which we denote as BW-s2($α$). In this work, we semi-empirically optimize $α$ for noncovalent interactions, thermochemistry, alkane conformational energies, electronic response properties, and transition metal datasets, leading to improvements in accuracy relative to the ab initio parameterization of BW-s2 and MP2. We demonstrate that the optimal $α$ parameter ($α$ = 4) is more transferable across chemical problems than energy-gap-dependent regularization parameters. This is attributable to the fact that the BW-s2($α$) regularization strength depends on all of the information encoded in the t amplitudes rather than just orbital energy differences. While the computational scaling of BW-s2($α$) is iterative $\mathcal{O}$($N^5$), this effective and transferable approach to amplitude regularization is a promising route to incorporate higher-order correlation effects at second-order cost.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multitask graph neural networks for elastoplastic response prediction in dual-phase polycrystals

Microstructure-sensitive prediction of elastoplastic response remains a recurring bottleneck in multiscale damage and fatigue modeling, where large ensembles of statistically distinct polycrystals are required to quantify variability and extreme-value behavior. In this work, we develop a multitask graph neural network (GNN) surrogate that maps dual-phase ferrite–martensite polycrystal microstructures to Statistical Volume Element (SVE)-level elastoplastic Quantities of Interest (QoIs). Each SVE is represented as a grain-adjacency graph, with node features encoding phase, geometry, and crystallographic orientation, and edge features encoding relative misorientation. A message-passing graph convolution generates node embeddings, which are pooled into a graph representation and passed to a multitask regression head that jointly predicts 10 scalar QoIs and vector-valued stress–strain responses in orthogonal loading directions across multiple martensite volume fractions and SVE sizes. Results show high accuracy for scalar QoIs and strong agreement for full stress–strain trajectories, with population envelopes reproducing both median behavior and finite-SVE variability across compositions and partition scales. A unified model trained on pooled volume-fraction data preserves most within-regime accuracy relative to regime-specific models while also capturing the broader cross-regime variation reflected in the pooled test set. Distributional comparisons further demonstrate that the surrogate preserves heterogeneity under SVE partitioning, enabling statistically consistent block-wise random-field construction for mesoscale analyses. Overall, the proposed grain-graph surrogate provides a practical pathway to accelerate ensemble-based studies of SVE-level constitutive variability in dual-phase polycrystals.

Crystal plasticity↗
DOE OSTI2025

U-Pu and Ba-Cs isotopic measurements on Trinitite by laser ablation sampling on the Neoma MC-ICP-MS

In this study we present the results of combined U-Pu and Ba-Cs isotope measurements obtained by laser ablation (LA) sampling of two glassy debris fragments (‘Trinitite’) from the world's first atomic bomb detonation conducted in New Mexico on July 16, 1945. Our primary goal in conducting these measurements was to understand whether examination of the U-Pu and Ba-Cs systematics by direct sampling (e.g. without any chemical separation or purification prior to isotope ratio measurement) could yield meaningful information that would differentiate the Trinitite fragments from glassy material lacking a nuclear fission signature. These measurements were conducted on a ThermoFisher Scientific Neoma multi collector – inductively coupled plasma – mass spectrometer (MC-ICP-MS), which is a relatively new MC-ICP-MS platform, so we also examine the behavior of these isotope systems in standards sampled in solution and via LA. Unsurprisingly, the measurements made on purified solutions of the U, Pu, and Ba isotopic standards produce high precision isotope ratios. Furthermore, this extends to the U-Pu measurements made by LA sampling, with the expected degradation in precision and accuracy related to matrix effects and signal intensity fluctuation. However, the Ba-Cs data acquired by LA is of low precision across all of the matrices examined and bears evidence of complex mass fractionation that will require further investigation to resolve. In total, our results indicate that the observed U-Pu isotope data are of sufficient quality to accurately constrain the U and Pu isotopic composition of glass containing sub-ppm levels of these elements which in turn could be used to differentiate glass containing anthropogenic fission products from natural glass whereas the Ba-Cs LA data cannot be used for this purpose until further methodological refinement is performed.

Ba-Cs↗
DOE OSTI2021

A surrogate-model-based approach for estimating the first and second-order moments of offshore wind power

Power curve, the functional relationship that governs the process of converting a set of weather variables experienced by a wind turbine into electric power, is widely used in the wind industry to estimate power output for planning and operational purposes. Existing methods for power curve estimation have three main limitations: (i) they mostly rely on wind speed as the sole input, thus ignoring the secondary, yet possibly significant effects of other environmental factors, (ii) they largely overlook the complex marine environment in which offshore turbines operate, potentially compromising their value in offshore wind energy applications, and (ii) they solely focus on the first-order properties of wind power, with little (or null) information about the variation around the mean behavior, which is important for ensuring reliable grid integration, asset health monitoring, and energy storage, among others. In light of that, this study investigates the impact of several wind-and wave-related factors on offshore wind power variability, with the ultimate goal of accurately predicting its first two moments. Further, our approach couples OpenFAST—a multi-physics wind turbine simulator—with Gaussian Process (GP) regression to reveal the underlying relationships governing offshore weather-to-power conversion. We first find that a multi-input power curve which captures the combined impact of wind speed, direction, and air density, can provide double-digit improvements, in terms of prediction accuracy, relative to univariate methods which rely on wind speed as the sole explanatory variable (e.g. the standard method of bins). Wave-related variables are found not important for predicting the average power output, but interestingly, appear to be extremely relevant in describing the fluctuation of the offshore power around its mean. Tested on real-world data collected at the New York/New Jersey bight, our proposed multi-input models demonstrate a high explanatory power in predicting the first two moments of offshore wind generation, testifying their potential value to the offshore wind industry.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scheduling strategies for the ESPRESSO follow-up of TESS targets

ABSTRACT Radial-velocity follow-up of stars harbouring transiting planets detected by TESS is expected to require very large amounts of expensive telescope time in the next few years. Therefore, scheduling strategies should be implemented to maximize the amount of information gathered about the target planetary systems. We consider myopic and non-myopic versions of a novel uniform-in-phase scheduler, as well as a random scheduler, and compare these scheduling strategies with respect to the bias, accuracy and precision achieved in recovering the mass and orbital parameters of transiting and non-transiting planets. This comparison is carried out based on realistic simulations of radial-velocity follow-up with ESPRESSO of a sample of 50 TESS target stars, with simulated planetary systems containing at least one transiting planet with a radius below 4R⊕. Radial-velocity data sets were generated under reasonable assumptions about their noise component, including that resulting from stellar activity, and analysed using a fully Bayesian methodology. We find the random scheduler leads to a more biased, less accurate, and less precise, estimation of the mass of the transiting exoplanets. No significant differences are found between the results of the myopic and non-myopic implementations of the uniform-in-phase scheduler. With only about 22 radial velocity measurements per data set, our novel uniform-in-phase scheduler enables an unbiased (at the level of 1 per cent) measurement of the masses of the transiting planets, while keeping the average relative accuracy and precision around 16 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively. The number of non-transiting planets detected is similar for all the scheduling strategies considered, as well as the bias, accuracy and precision with which their masses and orbital parameters are recovered.

Cabona, L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Discontinuous Galerkin discretization for quantum simulation of chemistry

All-electron electronic structure methods based on the linear combination of atomic orbitals method with Gaussian basis set discretization offer a well established, compact representation that forms much of the foundation of modern correlated quantum chemistry calculations—on both classical and quantum computers. Despite their ability to describe essential physics with relatively few basis functions, these representations can suffer from a quartic growth of the number of integrals. Recent results have shown that, for some quantum and classical algorithms, moving to representations with diagonal two-body operators can result in dramatically lower asymptotic costs, even if the number of functions required increases significantly. We introduce a way to interpolate between the two regimes in a systematic and controllable manner, such that the number of functions is minimized while maintaining a block-diagonal structure of the two-body operator and desirable properties of an original, primitive basis. Techniques are analyzed for leveraging the structure of this new representation on quantum computers. Empirical results for hydrogen chains suggest a scaling improvement from O(N 4.5 ) in molecular orbital representations to O(N 2.6 ) in our representation for quantum evolution in a fault-tolerant setting, and exhibit a constant factor crossover at 15 to 20 atoms. Moreover, we test these methods using modern density matrix renormalization group methods classically, and achieve excellent accuracy with respect to the complete basis set limit with a speedup of 1–2 orders of magnitude with respect to using the primitive or Gaussian basis sets alone. These results suggest our representation provides significant cost reductions while maintaining accuracy relative to molecular orbital or strictly diagonal approaches for modest-sized systems in both classical and quantum computation for correlated systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Force field for calcium sulfate minerals to predict structural, hydration, and interfacial properties

Calcium sulfates such as anhydrite, hemihydrate, and gypsum find widespread use in building materials, implants, and tissue healing. We introduce a simple and compatible atomistic force field for all calcium sulfate phases that reproduces a wide range of experimental data including lattice parameters, surface, hydration, mechanical, and thermal properties in 1% to 5% accuracy relative to experiments. The performance is several times better than prior force fields and DFT methods, which lead to errors in structures and energies up to 100%. We explain (hkl) cleavage energies, the dynamics of (hkl) water interfaces, and new insights into molecular origins of crystal-facet specific hydration and solubility. Impressive agreement of computed and experimentally measured hydration energies is shown. The models add to the Interface force field (IFF) and are compatible with multiple force fields (CHARMM, AMBER, GROMOS, CVFF, PCFF, OPLS-AA) for property predictions of sulfate-containing materials from atoms to the large nanometer scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transition Core Modeling for Extended Enrichment & Accident-Tolerant Fuels Using Polaris/PARCS

Commercial light water reactor (LWR) operators and fuel vendors are currently interested in increasing the low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel enrichments from the current limit of 5.0 $^w/_o$ $^{235}U$ up to 10 $^ w/_o$ $^{235}U$ (referred to as "LEU+") in their current fleets; they are also interested in using accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) with both LEU and LEU+ fuel. This report aims to identify modeling challenges and accuracy concerns in transition core analysis using the SCALE Polaris lattice physics code and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission core simulator PARCS. At the time this study was started, no publicly available LEU+ core designs existed for boiling water reactor (BWR) or pressurized water reactor (PWR) systems. Therefore, fuel lattices were shuffled within a multi-assembly model to mimic neutronically challenging lattice combinations seen in transition cores, such as a fresh LEU+ lattice next to depleted LEU lattices. In addition to multi-assembly models, whole-core BWR transition core calculations were performed for ATF and LEU+ fuel using an existing Hatch-1 Cycle 3 core model. A whole-core BWR model was chosen due to the more heterogeneous core designs compared to those for a PWR core. Since the original core is an old checkerboard core design and no core or fuel design optimization was performed for the modeled fuel types, these core calculations were intended only to provide: (1) Comparisons of core characteristics of interest, such as the pin power distributions and peaking factors, Doppler temperature coefficients (DTCs), and control blade worths (CBWs) under challenging core designs, (2) Identification of reactor physics challenges in modeling LEU+ and ATF cores, and (3) A stress test for the Polaris/PARCS two-step modeling approach, including characterization of the relative accuracy for predicting characteristics of interest such as pin power distributions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Self-supervised and multi-fidelity learning for extended predictive soil spectroscopy

Infrared spectroscopy is a cost-effective, non-destructive, and environmentally benign technology that is increasingly recognized as an important solution for meeting the global demand for soil data. While both near-infrared (NIR) and mid-infrared (MIR) diffuse reflectance spectroscopy enable rapid estimation of soil properties, they present a significant trade-off: NIR offers superior scalability and lower operational costs, whereas MIR provides higher analytical fidelity by capturing fundamental molecular vibrations. In this study, we propose a self-supervised, multi-fidelity learning framework designed to bridge this gap. Our approach leverages large-scale MIR spectral libraries to learn a compact, transferable latent representation, into which NIR spectra are subsequently aligned for downstream prediction. The workflow consists of pretraining a latent model on a large MIR library, adapting the representation using a smaller paired NIR–MIR dataset, and evaluating generalization on an independent external test set. Across a range of chemical and physical soil properties, we found that MIR-derived embeddings improved prediction accuracy relative to baseline models that used raw MIR inputs. Predictions derived from the spectrum conversion (NIR to MIR) task did not match the performance of the original MIR spectra but were similar or superior to predictive performance of NIR-only models, suggesting the unified spectral latent space can effectively leverage the larger and more diverse MIR dataset for prediction of soil properties not well represented in current NIR libraries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗