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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1991

Reliability model generator

An improved method and system for automatically generating reliability models for use with a reliability evaluation tool is described. The reliability model generator of the present invention includes means for storing a plurality of low level reliability models which represent the reliability characteristics for low level system components. In addition, the present invention includes means for defining the interconnection of the low level reliability models via a system architecture description. In accordance with the principles of the present invention, a reliability model for the entire system is automatically generated by aggregating the low level reliability models based on the system architecture description.

McMann, Catherine M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Reliability model generator specification

The Reliability Model Generator (RMG), a program which produces reliability models from block diagrams for ASSIST, the interface for the reliability evaluation tool SURE is described. An account is given of motivation for RMG and the implemented algorithms are discussed. The appendices contain the algorithms and two detailed traces of examples.

Cohen, Gerald C.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Reliability Model Generator for fault-tolerant systems

This paper discusses an analysis tool, the Reliability Model Generator, that reasons from structural and functional system design specifications to generate a reliability model for the system under investigation. The resultant model defines a system state space sufficient to characterize the effects of single and multiple component failures. This model may then be examined by the analyst or used as input to an existing reliability evaluation tool, the Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator (SURE), to compute numeric bounds for system reliability (i.e., safety, mission success, availability, etc.). In defining the input to the Reliability Model Generator, a separation of the component function from structural specification is proposed to allow easy modification for analysis of alternative architectures. A hierarchical system description paradigm promotes multiple abstractions, thereby enabling analysis at all phases of the design process. The work described in this paper has been supported under NASA contract NAS1-10899, Integrated Airframe/Propulsion Control System Architecture (IAPSA II). IAPSA II promotes a system engineering methodology and supporting analytical tools to evaluate flight control architecture configuration alternatives during early phases of the design cycle when the cost and schedule impact of design revisions is minimal. Emphasis is placed on traceability to ensure that the requirements drive the resulting design.

Catherine M McCann↗

NASA NTRS1990

A graphical language for reliability model generation

A graphical interface capability of the hybrid automated reliability predictor (HARP) is described. The graphics-oriented (GO) module provides the user with a graphical language for modeling system failure modes through the selection of various fault tree gates, including sequence dependency gates, or by a Markov chain. With this graphical input language, a fault tree becomes a convenient notation for describing a system. In accounting for any sequence dependencies, HARP converts the fault-tree notation to a complex stochastic process that is reduced to a Markov chain which it can then solve for system reliability. The graphics capability is available for use on an IBM-compatible PC, a Sun, and a VAX workstation. The GO module is written in the C programming language and uses the Graphical Kernel System (GKS) standard for graphics implementation. The PC, VAX, and Sun versions of the HARP GO module are currently in beta-testing.

Howell, Sandra V.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Generation and analysis of large reliability models

An effort has been underway for several years at NASA's Langley Research Center to extend the capability of Markov modeling techniques for reliability analysis to the designers of highly reliable avionic systems. This effort has been focused in the areas of increased model abstraction and increased computational capability. The reliability model generator (RMG), a software tool which uses as input a graphical, object-oriented block diagram of the system, is discussed. RMG uses an automated failure modes-effects analysis algorithm to produce the reliability model from the graphical description. Also considered is the ASSURE software tool, a parallel processing program which uses the ASSIST modeling language and SURE semi-Markov solution technique. An executable failure modes-effects analysis is used by ASSURE. The successful combination of the power of graphical representation, automated model generation, and parallel computation leads to the conclusion that large system architectures can now be analyzed.

Aerospace electronics↗

NASA NTRS1987

Automated model generation for reliability analysis programs

Semi-Markov models (a generalization of Markov models) can be used to calculate the reliability of virtually any fault-tolerant system. However, the process of delineating all of the states and transitions in the model of a complex system can be devastatingly tedious and error-prone. The ASSIST program allows the user to describe the semi-Markov model in a high-level language. Instead of specifying the individual states of the model, the user specifies the rules governing the behavior of the system, and these are used by ASSIST to automatically generate the model. A small number of statements in the abstract language can be used to describe a very large, complex model. Because no assumptions are made about the system being modeled, the ASSIST program can be used to generate models describing the behavior of any type of system. The ASSIST program and its input language are described and illustrated by examples.

Johnson, Sally C.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Automated generation of reliability models

The abstract semi-Markov specification interface to the SURE (Semi-Markov Range Evaluator) tool (ASSIST) program allows the user to describe the Markov model in a high-level language. Instead of listing the individual states of the model, the user specifies the rules governing the behavior of the system, and these are used to automatically generate the model. A small number of statements in the abstract language can describe a large, complex model. Becuase no assumptions are made about the system being modeled, ASSIST can be used to generate models describing the behavior of any type of system. The abstract model definition and the automatic model generation strategy are described. Analysis of an example fault-tolerant architecture, a triad of processor with cold spare processors, shows how the behavior of a system can be captured by a few general rules. The syntax of the ASSIST input language is then described and demonstrated by creating a model to describe the fault behavior of the example architecture. The flexibility of the abstract language is demonstrated by expanding the example to model multiple triads of processors sharing a pool of cold spare processors.

Johnson, Sally C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Advanced techniques in reliability model representation and solution

The current tendency of flight control system designs is towards increased integration of applications and increased distribution of computational elements. The reliability analysis of such systems is difficult because subsystem interactions are increasingly interdependent. Researchers at NASA Langley Research Center have been working for several years to extend the capability of Markov modeling techniques to address these problems. This effort has been focused in the areas of increased model abstraction and increased computational capability. The reliability model generator (RMG) is a software tool that uses as input a graphical object-oriented block diagram of the system. RMG uses a failure-effects algorithm to produce the reliability model from the graphical description. The ASSURE software tool is a parallel processing program that uses the semi-Markov unreliability range evaluator (SURE) solution technique and the abstract semi-Markov specification interface to the SURE tool (ASSIST) modeling language. A failure modes-effects simulation is used by ASSURE. These tools were used to analyze a significant portion of a complex flight control system. The successful combination of the power of graphical representation, automated model generation, and parallel computation leads to the conclusion that distributed fault-tolerant system architectures can now be analyzed.

Palumbo, Daniel L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

State reduction for semi-Markov reliability models

Semi-Markov processes have proved to be an effective and convenient tool to construct models of systems that achieve reliability by redundancy and reconfiguration. These models are able to depict complex system architectures and to capture the dynamics of fault arrival and system recovery. A disadvantage of this approach is that the models can be extremely large, which poses both a model construction and a computational problem. Techniques are needed to reduce the model size. Because these systems are used in critical applications where failure can be expensive, there must be an analytically derived bound for the error produced by the model reduction technique. Automatic model generation programs have been written to help the reliability analyst produce models of complex systems. Because of the importance of these programs, the model reduction technique needs to be precise and easily implemented. This paper presents a model reduction technique called trimming that can be applied to a popular class of systems. An error bound for the trimming procedure is derived that uses readily available system parameters. The trimming procedure is precisely described and appears easy to implement in a model generation program.

Reduced order systems↗

NASA NTRS1994

Large-eddy simulation of a plane wake

Previously the theoretical development leading to the dynamic localization model (DLM) for large-eddy simulation (LES) was presented. The method has been successfully applied to isotropic turbulence, channel flow, and the flow over a backward-facing step. Here we apply the model to the computation of the temporally developing place wake. The two main objectives of this project are: (1) Use the model to perform an LES of a time developing plane wake and compare the results with direction numerical simulation (DNS) data to see if important statistical measures can be readily predicted, and to provide a relative evaluation of the several versions of the model in terms of predictive capability and cost; and (2) If the tests in (1) show that the model generates reliable predictions, then use the LES to study various aspects of the physics of turbulent wakes and mixing layers.

Ghosal, Sandip↗

NASA NTRS1995

Integrated performance and reliability specification for digital avionics systems

This paper describes an automated tool for performance and reliability assessment of digital avionics systems, called the Automated Design Tool Set (ADTS). ADTS is based on an integrated approach to design assessment that unifies traditional performance and reliability views of system designs, and that addresses interdependencies between performance and reliability behavior via exchange of parameters and result between mathematical models of each type. A multi-layer tool set architecture has been developed for ADTS that separates the concerns of system specification, model generation, and model solution. Performance and reliability models are generated automatically as a function of candidate system designs, and model results are expressed within the system specification. The layered approach helps deal with the inherent complexity of the design assessment process, and preserves long-term flexibility to accommodate a wide range of models and solution techniques within the tool set structure. ADTS research and development to date has focused on development of a language for specification of system designs as a basis for performance and reliability evaluation. A model generation and solution framework has also been developed for ADTS, that will ultimately encompass an integrated set of analytic and simulated based techniques for performance, reliability, and combined design assessment.

Brehm, Eric W.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Composite Stress Rupture: A New Reliability Model Based on Strength Decay

A model is proposed to estimate reliability for stress rupture of composite overwrap pressure vessels (COPVs) and similar composite structures. This new reliability model is generated by assuming a strength degradation (or decay) over time. The model suggests that most of the strength decay occurs late in life. The strength decay model will be shown to predict a response similar to that predicted by a traditional reliability model for stress rupture based on tests at a single stress level. In addition, the model predicts that even though there is strength decay due to proof loading, a significant overall increase in reliability is gained by eliminating any weak vessels, which would fail early. The model predicts that there should be significant periods of safe life following proof loading, because time is required for the strength to decay from the proof stress level to the subsequent loading level. Suggestions for testing the strength decay reliability model have been made. If the strength decay reliability model predictions are shown through testing to be accurate, COPVs may be designed to carry a higher level of stress than is currently allowed, which will enable the production of lighter structures

Reeder, James R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spectroscopic Measurements and Models of Energy Deposition in the Substrate of Quantum Circuits by Natural Ionizing Radiation

Naturally occurring background radiation is a potential source of correlated decoherence events in superconducting qubits that will challenge error-correction schemes. In order to characterize the radiation environment in an unshielded laboratory representative of superconducting qubits’ environments, we performed broadband, spectroscopic measurements of background radiation events inside a millikelvin refrigerator. The spectrometer was designed to mimic the size and composition of a quantum circuit. Specifically, we measured the background radiation spectra in silicon substrates of two thicknesses, 500 and 1500 µm, and one area, 25 mm 2 . The observed spectra span energies from a few kilo-electron-volts up to nearly 10 MeV, are nearly featureless, and decrease in intensity by a factor of 40 000 between 100 keV and 3 MeV for the 500-µm substrate. We integrate the spectra to obtain the average event rates and deposited power levels. These quantities correspond to a rate of 0.023 events per second and a power of 4.9 keV s -1 , when counting events that deposit at least 40 keV for the 500-µm-thick substrate. We find that the cryogenic measurements are in good agreement with predictions based on simple measurements of the terrestrial gamma-ray flux outside the refrigerator, published models of cosmic-ray fluxes, a crude model of the cryostat, and radiation-transport simulations. This model requires no free parameters to predict the background radiation spectra in the silicon substrates. The agreement between measurements and predictions demonstrates that the model we present can be used to assess the relative contributions of terrestrial and cosmic-ray sources to background radiation interactions in silicon substrates of varying thickness. These spectroscopic measurements are performed with a novel combination of superconducting microresonators located on micromachined silicon islands that define the interaction volume with background radiation. The resonators transduce deposited energy to a readily detectable electrical signal. Microresonator readout closely resembles dispersive superconducting qubit readout, so similar devices—with or without micromachined islands—are suitable for integration with superconducting quantum circuits as detectors for background radiation events. For our specific laboratory conditions, we find that gamma-ray emissions from radioisotopes are responsible for the majority of events that deposit E < 1 ⁢Me⁢V. We present results demonstrating that the background radiation spectrum contains relevant contributions from cosmic-ray particles other than muons, particularly a tail of multi-mega-electron-volt events due to protons and neutrons. These observations suggest several paths to reducing the impact of background radiation on quantum circuits, supported by an empirically validated model for generating reliable predictions of radiation interactions with silicon substrates.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1990

Carbon deposition model for oxygen-hydrocarbon combustion. Task 6: Data analysis and formulation of an empirical model

The formation and deposition of carbon (soot) was studied in the Carbon Deposition Model for Oxygen-Hydrocarbon Combustion Program. An empirical, 1-D model for predicting soot formation and deposition in LO2/hydrocarbon gas generators/preburners was derived. The experimental data required to anchor the model were identified and a test program to obtain the data was defined. In support of the model development, cold flow mixing experiments using a high injection density injector were performed. The purpose of this investigation was to advance the state-of-the-art in LO2/hydrocarbon gas generator design by developing a reliable engineering model of gas generator operation. The model was formulated to account for the influences of fluid dynamics, chemical kinetics, and gas generator hardware design on soot formation and deposition.

Makel, Darby B.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Importance of Radiative Transfer Models in Atmospheric Remote Sensing

Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a significant role in the development of satellite instruments for remote sensing applications. These models simulate electromagnetic radiation's propagation through the atmosphere, providing valuable insights into atmosphere-radiation interactions. RTMs facilitate the optimization of satellite instrument designs, ensuring their ability to measure targeted atmospheric and surface properties accurately. Moreover, they aid in simulating instrument’s measurements under various atmospheric conditions, enabling calibration and validation processes to enhance data quality and reliability. RTMs are extensively used in the Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE), to generate synthetic observations. By incorporating RTMs into OSSE, we can assess the potential impact of future satellite missions, sensor configurations, and data assimilation techniques. This approach allows for the optimization of satellite instruments and constellations and the evaluation of their influence on weather forecasting, climate monitoring, and other Earth science applications. Another crucial application area of RT models is data assimilation, where they play a fundamental role in combining satellite observations with numerical models to improve atmospheric and environmental predictions. RTMs provide the link between observed radiances and atmospheric parameters, enhancing the accuracy of numerical models and generating more reliable forecasts for weather events, air quality assessments, and climate projections. Moreover, adapting RT models to capture the intricate radiation interactions within the Planetary Boundary Layer will significantly contribute to improving weather forecasting and climate change projections. Current community radiative transfer (RT) models are primarily developed and optimized for operational data assimilation of satellite observations. These models excel at assimilating satellite data into numerical weather prediction models to improve forecast accuracy. However, their focus on data assimilation limits their suitability for other important applications, such as satellite instrument development, OSSE, and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) studies. Moreover, for PBL studies, RT models need to be adapted to capture the intricate radiation interactions within this crucial atmospheric layer. Developing RT models that can represent the PBL's unique characteristics, such as surface interactions, will contribute significantly to understanding and predicting weather phenomena, air quality, and climate dynamics. This abstract provides a comprehensive overview of the current status of RT models and highlights their limitations concerning satellite instrument development, OSSE, and PBL studies. Addressing these shortcomings requires concerted efforts to enhance RT models' capabilities and expand their applications beyond data assimilation. By investing in research and development to improve these

Isaac Moradi↗

NASA NTRS2019

Model Based Engineering for Software Assurance

NASA's successful development of next generation space vehicles, habitats, and robotic systems will require reliable hardware and software systems. The aim of this initiative is to develop modeling methodology and tools to support Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) for software assurance and reliability analysis. This effort expands the Unified Modeling Language (UML) software design models to include fault data for the extraction of Failure Modes and Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) for software. We explored different modeling approaches to integrate the UML software design models with the Systems Modeling Language (SysML) system models to generate an integrated model and reliability tools that take into account software and hardware interfaces.The benefits of this concept directly affect the safety community with quick turnarounds to produce software assurance and reliability analysis artifacts and the ability to visualize failure effects, both hardware and software. The result is enhanced system design integrity and early identification of system risks. This initiative will enable software assurance activities early in the system design lifecycle, facilitating the discovery of design weaknesses and enhancing the capability to produce safe, hazard-free systems

Wang, Lui↗

NASA NTRS1992

Reliability prediction for a class of highly reliable digital systems

Three theorems which show that the reliability of a popular class of systems can be computed using small and simple models are presented. This class consists of systems that are assemblages of subsystems where each subsystem is a majority-voting threeplex plus spares or majority-voting fourplex plus spares. The theorems are error bounds for model reduction and simplification. The error bounds are given in terms of readily available system parameters. The three theorems have been applied to a system that has been used as an example that generates extremely large reliability models; the system considered is one version of AIPS (Advanced Information Processing System) for IAPSA (Integrated Airframe Propulsion System Architecture).

White, Allan L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Fire Simulations in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel wet-ness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a postprocessing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.

Wildfire, Earth system models↗