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Results for “Reliability sensitivity index”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Reliability Analysis and Reliability-Based Design Optimization of Circular Composite Cylinders Under Axial Compression

This report describes the preliminary results of an investigation on component reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization of thin-walled circular composite cylinders with average diameter and average length of 15 inches. Structural reliability is based on axial buckling strength of the cylinder. Both Monte Carlo simulation and First Order Reliability Method are considered for reliability analysis with the latter incorporated into the reliability-based structural optimization problem. To improve the efficiency of reliability sensitivity analysis and design optimization solution, the buckling strength of the cylinder is estimated using a second-order response surface model. The sensitivity of the reliability index with respect to the mean and standard deviation of each random variable is calculated and compared. The reliability index is found to be extremely sensitive to the applied load and elastic modulus of the material in the fiber direction. The cylinder diameter was found to have the third highest impact on the reliability index. Also the uncertainty in the applied load, captured by examining different values for its coefficient of variation, is found to have a large influence on cylinder reliability. The optimization problem for minimum weight is solved subject to a design constraint on element reliability index. The methodology, solution procedure and optimization results are included in this report.

Rais-Rohani, Masoud↗
NASA NTRS2003

Reliability Sensitivity Analysis and Design Optimization of Composite Structures Based on Response Surface Methodology

This report discusses the development and application of two alternative strategies in the form of global and sequential local response surface (RS) techniques for the solution of reliability-based optimization (RBO) problems. The problem of a thin-walled composite circular cylinder under axial buckling instability is used as a demonstrative example. In this case, the global technique uses a single second-order RS model to estimate the axial buckling load over the entire feasible design space (FDS) whereas the local technique uses multiple first-order RS models with each applied to a small subregion of FDS. Alternative methods for the calculation of unknown coefficients in each RS model are explored prior to the solution of the optimization problem. The example RBO problem is formulated as a function of 23 uncorrelated random variables that include material properties, thickness and orientation angle of each ply, cylinder diameter and length, as well as the applied load. The mean values of the 8 ply thicknesses are treated as independent design variables. While the coefficients of variation of all random variables are held fixed, the standard deviations of ply thicknesses can vary during the optimization process as a result of changes in the design variables. The structural reliability analysis is based on the first-order reliability method with reliability index treated as the design constraint. In addition to the probabilistic sensitivity analysis of reliability index, the results of the RBO problem are presented for different combinations of cylinder length and diameter and laminate ply patterns. The two strategies are found to produce similar results in terms of accuracy with the sequential local RS technique having a considerably better computational efficiency.

Rais-Rohani, Masoud↗
NASA NTRS1981

Physiological assessment of operator workload during manual tracking. 1: Pupillary responses

The feasibility of pupillometry as an indicator for assessing operator workload during manual tracking was studied. The mean and maximum pupillary responses of 12 subjects performing tracking tasks with three levels of difficulty (bandwidth of the forcing function were 0.15, 0.30 and 0.50 Hz respectively) were analysed. The results showed that pupillary dilation increased significantly as a function of the tracking difficulty which was reflected by the significant increase of tracking error (RMS). The present study supplies additional evidence that pupillary response is a sensitive and reliable index which may serve as an indicator for assessing operator workload in man-machine systems.

Jiang, Q.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A functional global sensitivity measure and efficient reliability sensitivity analysis with respect to statistical parameters

Sensitivity analysis and reliability assessment are two important aspects of structural and system safety. Epistemic uncertainty with respect to probabilistic model of input parameters due to lack of knowledge is present in many scarce-data applications and complicates the characterization of uncertainty in model response. In this article, we present two importance measures to evaluate the impact of distribution parameters on the probability distribution function (PDF) of the output and the failure probability. The epistemic uncertainty associated with the distribution parameters is modeled as random variables. Additionally, a modified extended polynomial chaos expansion (MEPCE) approach is introduced in which aleatory and epistemic random variables are modeled and propagated simultaneously while allowing the separate assessment for any single epistemic variable. A MEPCE-based kernel density estimation (KDE) construction provides a composite map from each epistemic variable to the response PDF. The functional global sensitivity index of the PDF with respect to the distribution parameters is thus derived, as a function of output, which is both more informative and more efficient than standard scalar sensitivity measures. Reliability sensitivity indices can be readily evaluated by integrating the global sensitivity index function over the failure zone. Three illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Most Probable Point-Based Method for Reliability Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis and Design Optimization

A major step in a most probable point (MPP)-based method for reliability analysis is to determine the MPP. This is usually accomplished by using an optimization search algorithm. The optimal solutions associated with the MPP provide measurements related to safety probability. This study focuses on two commonly used approximate probability integration methods; i.e., the Reliability Index Approach (RIA) and the Performance Measurement Approach (PMA). Their reliability sensitivity equations are first derived in this paper, based on the derivatives of their respective optimal solutions. Examples are then provided to demonstrate the use of these derivatives for better reliability analysis and Reliability-Based Design Optimization (RBDO).

Hou, Gene J.-W.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Sensitivity of the Lidar ratio to changes in size distribution and index of refraction

In order to invert lidar signals to obtain reliable extinction coefficients, sigma, a relationship between sigma and the backscatter coefficient, beta, must be given. These two coefficients are linearly related if the complex index of refraction, m, particle shape size distribution, N, does not change along the path illuminated by the laser beam. This, however, is generally not the case. An extensive Mie computation of the lidar ratio R = beta/sigma and the sensitivity of R to the changes in a parametric space defined by N and m were examined.

Evans, B. T. N.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Cognitive and affective components of mental workload: Understanding the effects of each on human decision making behavior

Human factors and ergonomics researchers have recognized for some time the increasing importance of understanding the role of the construct of mental workload in flight research. Current models of mental workload suggest that it is a multidimensional and complex construct, but one that has proved difficult to measure. Because of this difficulty, emphasis has usually been placed on using direct reports through subjective measures such as rating scales to assess levels of mental workload. The NASA Task Load Index (NASA/TLX, Hart and Staveland) has been shown to be a highly reliable and sensitive measure of perceived mental workload. But a problem with measures like TLX is that there is still considerable disagreement as to what it is about mental workload that these subjective measures are actually measuring. The empirical use of subjective workload measures has largely been to provide estimates of the cognitive components of the actual mental workload required for a task. However, my research suggests that these measures may, in fact have greater potential in accurately assessing the affective components of workload. That is, for example, TLX may be more likely to assess the positive and negative feelings associated with varying workload levels, which in turn may potentially influence the decision making behavior that directly bears on performance and safety issues. Pilots, for example, are often called upon to complete many complex tasks that are high in mental workload, stress, and frustration, and that have significant dynamic decision making components -- often ones that involve risk as well.

Nygren, Thomas E.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Added value of site load measurements in probabilistic lifetime extension: a Lillgrund case study

Site-specific fatigue estimation is an essential part of wind turbine lifetime extension, with various methods depending on data availability. The present study compares probabilistic lifetime extension assessment results for rotor blades with and without load measurements. It also addresses two key questions in such assessments: the applicability of the Frandsen model for estimating waked turbulence under complex and mixed wake conditions and the extrapolation of mid-term data over longer time periods. The case study wind turbine is SWT-2.3-93, located at the edge of the Lillgrund wind farm, situated in the Øresund Strait between Denmark and Sweden. The turbine is extensively instrumented, with 5 years of data available from its supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Although the Frandsen turbulence estimates deviate in a different manner from measurements at below- and above-rated mean wind speeds, the model remains a conservative approach for fatigue load prediction and reliability. In the current case study, the site-specific assessment using strain gauge measurements yields a 33 % higher annual fatigue reliability index after 35 years compared to a scenario based on the Frandsen estimation combined with ambient environmental data and a generic aeroelastic model. The results also demonstrate that the sensitivity of fatigue reliability to load uncertainty is negligible when load measurements are used directly but relatively high when relying on the Frandsen model in combination with a generic aeroelastic model. Overall, the high variability of the lifetime extension in different scenarios of data availability and accuracy shows the importance and added value of high-quality measurements combined with wind-farm-level SCADA and a model updated in real time (digital twins).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1992

Structural Deterministic Safety Factors Selection Criteria and Verification

Though current deterministic safety factors are arbitrarily and unaccountably specified, its ratio is rooted in resistive and applied stress probability distributions. This study approached the deterministic method from a probabilistic concept leading to a more systematic and coherent philosophy and criterion for designing more uniform and reliable high-performance structures. The deterministic method was noted to consist of three safety factors: a standard deviation multiplier of the applied stress distribution; a K-factor for the A- or B-basis material ultimate stress; and the conventional safety factor to ensure that the applied stress does not operate in the inelastic zone of metallic materials. The conventional safety factor is specifically defined as the ratio of ultimate-to-yield stresses. A deterministic safety index of the combined safety factors was derived from which the corresponding reliability proved the deterministic method is not reliability sensitive. The bases for selecting safety factors are presented and verification requirements are discussed. The suggested deterministic approach is applicable to all NASA, DOD, and commercial high-performance structures under static stresses.

Verderaime, V.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Development of techniques for measuring pilot workload

An objective method of assessing information workload based on physiological measurements was developed. Information workload, or reserve capacity, was measured using a visual discrimination secondary task and subjective rating of task difficulty. The primary task was two axis (pitch and roll) tracking, and the independent variables in this study were aircraft pitch dynamics and wind gust disturbances. The study was structured to provide: (1) a sensitive, nonloading measure of reserve capacity, and (2) an unencumbering reliable measurement of the psychophysiological state. From these, a measured workload index (MWI) and physiological workload index (PWI) were extracted. An important measure of the success of this study was the degree to which the MWI and PWI agreed across the 243 randomly-presented, four-minute trials (9 subjects X 9 tasks X 3 replications). The electrophysiological data collected included vectorcardiogaram, respiration, electromyogram, skin impedance, and electroencephalogram. Special computer programs were created for the analysis of each physiological variable. The digital data base then consisted of 82 physiological features for each of the 243 trials. A prediction of workload based on physiological observations was formulated as a simultaneous least-squares prediction problem. A best subset of 10 features was chosen to predict the three measures of reserve capacity. The cannonical correlation coefficient was .754 with a chi squared value of 91.3 which allows rejection of the null hypothesis with p of .995.

Spyker, D. A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating capacity credit sensitivity to reliability metrics and computational methodologies

Assigning capacity value to renewable energy sources (RES) is a challenge faced in planning their integration with the grid. The difficulties stem from the natural characteristics of variability and intermittency of wind and solar sources. The capacity credit (CC) analysis evaluates the system’s actual power output compared with a constant capacity generator, i.e., conventional generator and determines an effective capacity to use for planning and operation. Herein this paper presents different factors that could affect the CC of a system. Two methods are proposed to determine the CC, namely equivalent firm capacity (EFC) and effective load carrying capability (ELCC). Since these methods are based on satisfying reliability criteria, daily loss of load expectation (LOLE), hourly loss of load (LOLH), and expected energy not served (EENS) have been employed as indices. To obtain the CC value, both methods apply two techniques: traditional and optimization. Genetic algorithm (GA) is the optimization approach used in this paper. Then, this work compares the two techniques and shows the superior performance of the optimization approach. Two hybrid systems, stand-alone (SA) and grid-connected (GC) modes, are proposed and used as case studies. The hybrid systems consist of photovoltaic (PV), wind turbine (WT), and battery energy storage system (BESS). In this work, three different scenarios are used to compare capacity credit: system as a whole, only wind, and no batteries. Finally, sensitivity analysis is carried out to examine the impact of varying the wind speed, solar irradiation, and load. It is demonstrated that the choice of reliability index plays an important role in determining the capacity credit and it is shown that EENS is a more comprehensive and consistent index of reliability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1985

Assessment of metabolic bone diseases by quantitative computed tomography

Advances in the radiologic sciences have permitted the development of numerous noninvasive techniques for measuring the mineral content of bone, with varying degrees of precision, accuracy, and sensitivity. The techniques of standard radiography, radiogrammetry, photodensitometry, Compton scattering, neutron activation analysis, single and dual photon absorptiometry, and quantitative computed tomography (QCT) are described and reviewed in depth. Results from previous cross-sectional and longitudinal QCT investigations are given. They then describe a current investigation in which they studied 269 subjects, including 173 normal women, 34 patients with hyperparathyroidism, 24 patients with steroid-induced osteoporosis, and 38 men with idiopathic osteoporosis. Spinal quantitative computed tomography, radiogrammetry, and single photon absorptiometry were performed, and a spinal fracture index was calculated on all patients. The authors found a disproportionate loss of spinal trabecular mineral compared to appendicular mineral in the men with idiopathic osteoporosis and the patients with steroid-induced osteoporosis. They observed roughly equivalent mineral loss in both the appendicular and axial regions in the hyperparathyroid patients. The appendicular cortical measurements correlated moderately well with each other but less well with spinal trabecular QCT. The spinal fracture index correlated well with QCT and less well with the appendicular measurements. Knowledge of appendicular cortical mineral status is important in its own right but is not a valid predictor of axial trabecular mineral status, which may be disproportionately decreased in certain diseases. Quantitative CT provides a reliable means of assessing the latter region of the skeleton, correlates well with the spinal fracture index (a semiquantitative measurement of end-organ failure), and offers the clinician a sensitive means of following the effects of therapy.

Minerals/analysis↗
NASA NTRS2021

Polarimetric sensitivity of light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols over ocean: A theoretical assessment

Visible-light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols within the boundary layer affect the radiance and polarization states of the radiation at the top of the atmosphere. Remote sensing from suborbital and satellite-based platforms utilizes these radiance and polarization signals to retrieve the key properties of these aerosols. Recent retrieval algorithms have shown a progressive trend toward including multi-angular and multi-spectral polarimetric measurements to produce better retrieval accuracy in comparison to those using measurements based on a single viewing angle. Here, we perform a theoretical investigation of the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiance-related reflectance factor (bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF)) and the two types of polarimetry-related factors (polarized bidirectional reflectance factor (pBRF) and the degree of linear polarization (DoLP)) for different types of atmospheric light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols as a function of particle size distribution. We selected three polarimetric bands corresponding to those utilized by NASA's Airborne Multiangle SpectroPolarimetric Imager (AirMSPI)—near-UV (470 nm), visible (660 nm), and near-infrared (865 nm)—for our simulations which were performed over ocean surface using the successive order of scattering (SOS) algorithm coupled to a Lorenz-Mie aerosol optics model. The analysis of particle phase matrix elements indicates a close relationship between the angular dependencies of DoLP and associated phase matrix components at the shortest polarimetric band (470 nm). Using Jacobian analysis, we find that the radiance- and polarimetry-related reflectance factors of weakly light-absorbing aerosols, such as brown carbon, are more sensitive to changes in particle size and imaginary refractive index in comparison with those of black carbon, which is strongly light-absorbing. Our results suggest that the DoLP data could be used by future retrieval algorithms for reliably estimating microphysical properties of absorbing carbonaceous aerosols with imaginary refractive index less than 0.4.

refractive index↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity of fatigue reliability in wind turbines: effects of design turbulence and the Wöhler exponent

Fatigue assessment of wind turbines involves three main sources of uncertainty: material resistance, load, and the damage accumulation model. Many studies focus on increasing the accuracy of fatigue load assessment to improve the fatigue reliability. Probabilistic modeling of the wind's turbulence standard deviation is an example of an approach used for this purpose. Editions 3 and 4 of the IEC standard for the design of wind energy generation systems (IEC 61400-1) suggest different probability distributions as alternatives for the representative turbulence in the normal turbulence model (NTM) of edition 1. There are debates on whether the suggested distributions provide conservative reliability levels, as the established design safety factors are calibrated based on the representative turbulence approach. The current study addresses the debate by comparing annual reliability based on different scenarios of NTM using a probabilistic approach. More importantly, it elaborates on the relative importance of load assessment accuracy in defining the fatigue reliability. Using the DTU 10 MW reference wind turbine and the first-order reliability method (FORM), we study the changes in the annual reliability level and its sensitivity to the three main random inputs. We perform the study considering the blade root flapwise and the tower base fore–aft moments, assuming different fatigue exponents in each load channel. The results show that integration over distributions of turbulence in each mean wind speed results in less conservative annual reliability levels than representative turbulence. The difference in the reliability levels varies according to turbulence distribution and the fatigue exponent. In the case of the tower base, the difference in the annual reliability index after 20 years can be up to 50 %. However, the model and material uncertainty have much higher effects on the reliability levels compared to load uncertainty. Knowledge about such differences in the reliability levels due to the choice of turbulence distribution is especially important, as it impacts the extent of lifetime extension through reliability reassessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2001

NASA/American Cancer Society High-Resolution Flow Cytometry Project-I

BACKGROUND: The NASA/American Cancer Society (ACS) flow cytometer can simultaneously analyze the electronic nuclear volume (ENV) and DNA content of cells. This study describes the schematics, resolution, reproducibility, and sensitivity of biological standards analyzed on this unit. METHODS: Calibrated beads and biological standards (lymphocytes, trout erythrocytes [TRBC], calf thymocytes, and tumor cells) were analyzed for ENV versus DNA content. Parallel data (forward scatter versus DNA) from a conventional flow cytometer were obtained. RESULTS: ENV linearity studies yielded an R value of 0.999. TRBC had a coefficient of variation (CV) of 1.18 +/- 0.13. DNA indexes as low as 1.02 were detectable. DNA content of lymphocytes from 42 females was 1.9% greater than that for 60 males, with a noninstrumental variability in total DNA content of 0.5%. The ENV/DNA ratio was constant in 15 normal human tissue samples, but differed in the four animal species tested. The ENV/DNA ratio for a hypodiploid breast carcinoma was 2.3 times greater than that for normal breast tissue. CONCLUSIONS: The high-resolution ENV versus DNA analyses are highly reliable, sensitive, and can be used for the detection of near-diploid tumor cells that are difficult to identify with conventional cytometers. ENV/DNA ratio may be a useful parameter for detection of aneuploid populations.

NASA Center JSC↗
NASA NTRS1983

Chemical compositions of planetary nebulae

The chemical compositions of 41 planetary nebulae are established on the basis of an analysis of image tube scanner measurements, supplemented by IUE data. An attempt is made to calculate a theoretical model that gives satisfactory values of the observed intensities, as well as a number of excitation-sensitive ratios, in order to obtain ionization correction factors applicable to the ionic concentrations that will lead to total abundance values. The quality of individual nebular analyses varies, depending on the completeness and accuracy of the observational data and the complexity of the nebular structure. Quality estimates are assigned for each element in each nebula, and an overall reliability index is given to each object. It is concluded that the confidence with which one can speak of the chemical composition of a nebula varies significantly.

Aller, L. H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Switchgrass Biomass Yields Using a Spectral Vegetation Index Derived from Multispectral Satellite Imagery

Successful scaling of perennial bioenergy crop production requires a landscape design that optimizes the benefits of finite lands for people, communities, and environments. Utilizing marginal areas is the key to sustainable bioenergy crop production (Ssegane et al., 2015, 2016). Marginal areas are often small-sized lands and unevenly distributed across the agricultural landscape (Ssegane et al., 2016); thus, a systematic, semi-automated remote sensing method is needed as an effective means of estimating bioenergy crop yields across landscapes. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is currently developing a tool, Scaling Up Perennial Bioenergy Economics and Ecosystem Services Tool (SUPERBEEST), to identify marginal agricultural lands and quantify environmental and economic effects of perennial bioenergy crop production systems. The tool aims to provide users a path to foster the sustainable and productive integration of bioenergy crops in the Midwestern agricultural landscape. Reliable, cost-effective, and timely estimation of bioenergy crop yields using remote sensing would help calculate and track the success of integrated bioenergy crops in the landscape for those communities. Argonne previously conducted feasibility studies for estimating biomass yields for bioenergy feedstock, corn and perennial grass using spectral vegetation indices (SVIs)1 derived from optical imagery (Hamada et al., 2015, 2021). In both studies, SVIs, more specifically those sensitive to plant chlorophyll or nitrogen contents, showed potential for estimating or predicting biomass yields with a correlation of determination (R2) ranging from 0.54 to 0.96, indicating a value for further investigation as a viable means of quantifying bioenergy feedstock production across large landscapes. Thus, the goal of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of use of SVIs as a means of estimating or predicting switchgrass biomass yields at harvest using publicly available multispectral satellite imagery. The feasibility analysis was performed using four study areas of mature switchgrass located in Virginia. Objectives are to (1) examine the SVIs and establish their relationships with switchgrass biomass yields at harvest, (2) develop a parsimonious image processing model for predicting at-harvest yields by applying the relationships with the most promising spectral index and (3) map switchgrass yields predicted by the image processing model across the study sites. The calibration to field data will rely on switchgrass biomass yields determined by the baling method, representing a potential challenge to the analysis but an important practical aspect for future applications. With this research design, the study aimed to gain insights into enabling remote sensing-based estimation of bioenergy crop yields in a reliable, cost- effective, and timely manner across large, heterogeneous landscapes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Establishing robust correction schemes for improved and reliable ARM-AOS aerosol optical data products

Aerosol light absorption and scattering of solar radiation play an important role in the earth’s atmosphere in terms of direct and semi-direct radiative forcing. Optical parameters of importance to the US Department of Energy (DOE) climate models include absorption and scattering coefficients, single scattering albedo (SSA), absorption Angstrom exponents (AAE), and the asymmetry parameter (g). These parameters depend on aerosol size, shape and composition (refractive index), and are spectrally sensitive in the shortwave region. Additionally, these parameters have a complex dependency on the emission source, especially for carbonaceous aerosols. The DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has deployed aerosol observing systems (AOS) containing several filter-based instruments to measure and constrain aerosol optical properties and related parameters at multiple sites worldwide. For measurement of aerosol light absorption, the AOS includes filter-based instruments (particle soot absorption photometer and tricolor absorption photometer) that infer particle-phase aerosol absorption coefficients at nominal red, green, and blue wavelength bands from the attenuation (ATN) of light passing through a particulate filter on which aerosols are deposited. Measurement of aerosol scattering is done in situ using nephelometers. By combining inferred absorption coefficients from filter-based ATN measurements and in situ scattering coefficients, value-added products (VAPs) such as SSA, AAE, and g are derived.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗