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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Error-Level-Controlled Synthetic Forecasts for Renewable Generation

Renewable energy resources, including solar and wind energy, play a significant role in sustainable energy systems. However, the inherent uncertainty and intermittency of renewable generation pose challenges to the safe and efficient operation of power systems. Recognizing the importance of short-term (hours ahead) renewable generation forecasting in power systems operation, it becomes crucial to address the potential inaccuracies in these forecasts. To systematically evaluate the performance of controllers in the presence of imperfect forecasts, we generate synthetic forecasts using actual renewable generation profiles (one from solar and one from wind). These synthetic forecasts incorporate different levels of statistical error, allowing us to control and manipulate the accuracy of the predictions. The primary objective is to employ synthetic forecasts with controlled yet realistic error levels to systematically investigate how controllers adapt to variations in forecast accuracy, providing valuable insights into their robustness and effectiveness under real-world conditions.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Grid Strength under Uncertain Renewable Generation

The increasing displacement of synchronous generators with renewable resources such as wind and solar via power electronic interfaces causes a reduction in short-circuit strength and weak grid issues. The variation and uncertainty of renewable energy increase challenges for identifying weak grid conditions. This paper proposes an efficient method to analyze the impact of uncertain renewable energy on grid strength. The proposed method uses the probabilistic collocation method (PCM) to approximate the results of grid strength assessment under uncertain renewable generation, in order to reduce computational burden without compromising result accuracy when compared with traditional Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). To improve the accuracy of the approximation results, the proposed method integrates the K-means clustering technique with PCM to select the approximation samples of input variables. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparison with MCS on the modified IEEE 9-bus system and modified IEEE 39-bus system with multiple renewable generators.

grid strength↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assembling an Effective Team for Renewable Generation and Storage Projects

On-site renewable generation and storage systems have piqued the interest of facility owners to substantially reduce their energy costs and environmental footprint. Assembling an effective team before the project begins can streamline the implementation of these systems and ensure that the design, installation, and operation of the system are well aligned with the needs of the facility owner. To inform this process, this resource will provide three specific guidelines: Guideline 1: Identify common skillsets in renewable energy and storage projects; Guideline 2: Decide who will fill these skillsets, internally and externally; and Guideline 3: Recognize additional project considerations to ensure cost-effectiveness, increased resiliency, and contribution to both electrification and decarbonization goals.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characteristics of locational uncertainty marginal price for correlated uncertainties of variable renewable generation and demands

With the rapid increase of variable renewable energy sources in power systems, how to manage and price the uncertainty of renewable resources’ power outputs is becoming an urgent issue. Current market designs considering the uncertainties are mainly based on the probabilistic scenario set of demand and renewable energy resources power outputs. This consideration makes market designs vulnerable to three significant challenges when put into practice. First, the accurate probability distribution of renewable generation is hard to obtain in real-time. Second, it is challenging to clear the market timely with many scenarios to guarantee accuracy. Third, generation cost recovery cannot be guaranteed for some scenarios. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a locational uncertainty marginal price model to price the uncertainty explicitly based on a scenario-free stochastic market-clearing model. Instead of using the probabilistic scenario set, the uncertainty of renewable energy sources and loads is modeled with distributionally-robust chance constraints. The correlation of uncertainties can be endogenously modeled in both the market-clearing and the locational uncertainty marginal price formation. Furthermore, this paper proves that generation cost recovery, revenue adequacy, and partial market equilibrium can be achieved using the locational uncertainty marginal price model. Numerical results from both the small and large systems simulations validate that the generation cost recovery is maintained no matter the generation participates in uncertainty mitigation or not. The transmission congestion surplus is also allocated appropriately among loads, renewable energy sources, and financial transmission right owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

ReNew100: Reliable Power System Operation with 100% Renewable Generation

The ReNew100 project has developed and demonstrated an operator support system (OSS) to operate power systems with 100% renewable power generation from inverter-based resources (IBRs) like wind and solar that significantly reduces the risk of widespread power outages in a simulated operational environment at Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6. The OSS achieves resilient operation for power systems under changing operation modes including varying combinations of conventional and renewable generation, including cases with 100% renewable generation from wind and solar IBRs. The OSS continuously monitors the N-1 security of the power system, which refers to the ability of the power systems to survive single outages of power system elements, like the loss of a generator or a power line, without causing widespread power outages beyond those expected and planned for. If the OSS identifies that the system is not N-1 secure, an automatic Controller Parameter Optimization (CoPO) developed within Renew100 is activated to optimize the N-1 security of the system by tuning controller parameters within different assets like batteries, wind, and solar plants. The core innovation of ReNew100 is the development of this CoPO as well as the demonstration of the OSS for a real-time simulation of the Hawai'i Island power system. Moreover, Renew100 has developed new model calibration techniques for dynamic power system models and demonstrated them for Hawai'i Island.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

RAVIS: Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness of Variable Renewable Generation

The Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness (RAVIS) is an innovative, open-source tool for visualizing variable renewable resource forecasts and alerts for significant up- and down-ramps in renewable generation and the consequent system net load. The modular dashboard of RAVIS contains configurable panes for viewing probabilistic time-series forecasts, ramp event alerts on the look-ahead timeline, and spatially resolved resource sites, and forecasts. For comprehensive situational awareness, the tool can add additional data layers from simulation and independent system operator (ISO) market clearing data---including electric line utilization, nodal price, and available generation flexibility---in response to continuously updated renewable forecasts. This paper introduces the RAVIS technology suite employed to provide optimum visualization and flexible design characteristics. The paper also illustrates some use cases of the tool using site-specific solar power forecast data obtained from the IBM Watt-Sun forecasting platform for the California ISO and Midcontinent ISO footprints. The source code for RAVIS is public (https://github.com/ravis-nrel/ravis), and the intended users are forecasters, utility planners, ISO operators, and researchers.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coordinated Integration of Renewable Generation and Small Modular Reactors in Puerto Rico – an Initial Study

With a growing interest and awareness to support clean and sustainable sources of energy, several countries have ambitious plans to significantly increase the penetration of renewable energy in the grid. However, the sources of renewable energy, such as solar and wind, are highly intermittent and therefore can pose additional challenges to maintain reliable system operations; one such challenge being flexibility requirement. This paper addresses the concerns of increasing flexibility needs with high renewable penetration, and also study the coordinated integration of nuclear small modular reactor and inverter-based renewable generation sources in a system to achieve high levels of carbon-free and sustainable energy. In this paper, balancing reserve and short-term flexibility requirements were considered for the analysis purpose. Also, methodology was developed to calculate metrics for calculating short-term flexibility requirements in the time-scale of hours. Small modular reactors are considered as potential sources of generation flexibility to complement renewables.

Agrawal, Urmila↗
DOE OSTI2021

RAVIS: Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness of Variable Renewable Generation: Preprint

The Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness (RAVIS) is an innovative, open-source tool for visualizing variable renewable resource forecasts and alerts for significant up- and down-ramps in renewable generation and the consequent system net load. The modular dashboard of RAVIS contains configurable panes for viewing probabilistic time-series forecasts, ramp event alerts on the look-ahead timeline, and spatially resolved resource sites, and forecasts. For comprehensive situational awareness, the tool can add additional data layers from simulation and independent system operator (ISO) market clearing data—including electric line utilization, nodal price, and available generation flexibility—in response to continuously updated renewable forecasts. This paper introduces the RAVIS technology suite employed to provide optimum visualization and flexible design characteristics. The paper also illustrates some use cases of the tool using site-specific solar power forecast data obtained from the IBM Watt-Sun forecasting platform for the California ISO and Midcontinent ISO footprints. The source code for RAVIS is public (https://github.com/ravis-nrel/ravis), and the intended users are forecasters, utility planners, ISO operators, and researchers.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving operational flexibility of integrated energy system with uncertain renewable generations considering thermal inertia of buildings

Insufficient flexibility in system operation caused by traditional "heat-set" operating modes of combined heat and power (CHP) units in winter heating periods is a key issue that limits renewable energy consumption. In order to reduce the curtailment of renewable energy resources through improving the operational flexibility, a novel optimal scheduling model based on chance-constrained programming (CCP), aiming at minimizing the lowest generation cost, is proposed for a small-scale integrated energy system (IES) with CHP units, thermal power units, renewable generations and representative auxiliary equipments. In this model, due to the uncertainties of renewable generations including wind turbines and photovoltaic units, the probabilistic spinning reserves are supplied in the form of chance-constrained; from the perspective of user experience, a heating load model is built with consideration of heat comfort and inertia in buildings. To solve the model, a solution approach based on sequence operation theory (SOT) is developed, where the original CCP-based scheduling model is tackled into a solvable mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation by converting a chance constraint into its deterministic equivalence class, and thereby is solved via the CPLEX solver. We report the simulation results on the modified IEEE 30-bus system demonstrate that the presented method manages to improve operational flexibility of the IES with uncertain renewable generations by comprehensively leveraging thermal inertia of buildings and different kinds of auxiliary equipments, which provides a fundamental way for promoting renewable energy consumption.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of Intelligent Load Control to Manage Building Loads to Support Rapid Growth of Distributed Renewable Generation

Electricity utilities are faced with the mounting challenge of providing a stable supply of power to meet the growing demand while also integrating rapid growth in distributed variable renewable generation. Traditional means of balancing short- and long-term supply and demand imbalance will be expensive. Alternative approaches of using flexible loads in buildings are needed to mitigate the imbalance at a lower cost. This paper shows how the intelligent load control (ILC) process can be used to manage loads in buildings by dynamically prioritizing loads for curtailment using both quantitative and qualitative criteria. The ILC process can be deployed on low-cost computing platforms without the need for any additional sensing. ILC was first validated in a simulation environment to provide two grid service use cases: (1) managing monthly peak electricity demand and (2) managing buildings’ electricity consumption during a capacity bidding event. After being successfully tested in a simulation environment, ILC was deployed on real buildings to manage electricity consumption to provide two different use cases under different outdoor operating conditions. Both the simulation tests and the real building experiments were deployed using VOLTTRON™, a distributed sensing and control platform. The results from the tests and experiments showed that ILC was able to manage the controllable loads (heat pumps) in the building to maintain the electricity consumption at the desired level without a significant impact on occupant comfort. Overall, the results demonstrate that the ILC allows coordination of the controllable loads and provides a more intelligent means of load management than the traditional duty-cycling approach.

Kim, Woohyun↗
DOE OSTI2020

Next Generation Renewables and, Separately, Energy System Transformation, and Related Topics (CRADA CRD-14-557 Final Report)

The Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA, an institute within NREL) will support the design, development, delivery and dissemination of two (2) informational whitepapers, identified as Task 1 and Task 2, respectively: Next Generation Renewables and Energy Systems Integration. Note: multiple abstracts with each of 10 modifications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Robust VAR Capability Curve of DER with Uncertain Renewable Generation

Active distribution system with high penetration of inverter based distributed energy resources(DER), can be utilized for var-related ancillary services at the transmission side interface. In order to utilize the DER flexibility, transmission system operator must be presented the aggregated DER flexibility of distribution system. However, the uncertainty in renewable generation, questions the credibility of aggregated capability curve in practice. In this paper, we incorporate the uncertainty into aggregation process to develop capability curve while preserving the real physics (unbalance and lossy nature) of distribution system. The Resulting capability curve with the associated probability can be harnessed by the TSO for decision making for both planning and operation.

Kar, Aditya Shankar↗
DOE OSTI2022

Synchronization in electric power networks with inherent heterogeneity up to 100% inverter-based renewable generation

The synchronized operation of power generators is the foundation of electric power network stability and a key to the prevention of undesired power outages and blackouts. Here, we derive the conditions that guarantee synchronization in power networks with inherent generator heterogeneity when subjected to small perturbations, and perform a parametric sensitivity analysis to understand synchronization with varied types of generators. As inverter-based resources, which are the primary interfacing technology for many renewable sources of energy, have supplanted synchronous generators in ever growing numbers, the center of attention on associated integration challenges have resided primarily on the role of declining system inertia. Our results instead highlight the critical role of generator damping in achieving a stable state of synchronization. Additionally, we report the feasibility of operating interconnected electric grids with up to 100% power contribution from inverter-based renewable generation technologies. Our study has important implications as it sets the basis for the development of advanced control architectures and grid optimization methods that ensure synchronization and further pave the path towards the decarbonization of the electric power sector.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evolving Competitive Markets in SAPP: Leveraging Competitive Wholesale Electricity Markets to Drive Renewable Generation Capacity in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)

The SADC region has significant natural resource potential to increase renewable energy generation, improve electricity reliability, and support economic development. This research finds an apparent lack of confidence from electricity infrastructure investors in SAPP wholesale electricity markets, which increases risk perception and lowers the likelihood of capital deployment. With respect to free market fundamentals, competitive market obstacles and renewable energy development obstacles are characterized. Stakeholders identified the top obstacles to well-functioning competitive markets as insufficient transmission infrastructure for interconnection and regional movement of electricity, dominance of national single-buyer markets, and lack of or weak nation-state regulatory frameworks. Stakeholders prioritized the top three obstacles for renewable energy development as a lack of viable commercial arrangements for variable renewable energy (VRE) balancing, lack of functional and consistent nation-level regulations, and higher project costs related to reliance on imported equipment. With respect to potential solution options, stakeholders prioritized the development of new cost allocation and finance methods to facilitate new transmission expansion, training to educate new or potential new market entrants on SAPP processes, as well as modeling and analysis of regional SAPP participation benefits disaggregated to the nation-state level. From these perspectives, this research identified strategy options for consideration including transitioning SAPP to a regional transmission operator (RTO) for operation and planning of cross-border transmission facilities and market administration, shifting operations of SAPP member transmission systems to Independent System Operators (ISOs), establishing a regional regulatory authority and enhancing market data transparency. Implementing these reforms is expected to be challenging, but not insurmountable, given the domestic political, legal, and jurisdictional complexities of the SADC region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A reforecasting-based dynamic reserve estimation for variable renewable generation and demand uncertainty

The installed capacity of renewables-based energy sources has been increasing in traditional power systems. In order to accommodate the increased variability and uncertainty associated with the deeper penetration of renewable sources like solar and wind, adjusted amounts of dynamic reserve are needed. Although probabilistic dynamic reserve estimation methods have been previously developed, most of them consider the uncertainty to be represented by parametric density functions that tend to perform poorly under extreme events and, moreover, neglect uncertainty introduced by the forecasting model itself. Toward addressing these limitations, this work presents, for the first time, a dynamic reserve estimation method for flexibility that incorporates nonparametric density estimation and a machine learning based reforecasting to provide a day-ahead prediction of the mean and spread of uncertainty around the base forecast. The prediction is, in turn, used to estimate the up and down reserve relative to the base forecast. Here, the present method takes various endogenous and exogenous features, including the calendar variables, as input to estimate the day-ahead reserve. Using a combination of reforecasting and dynamic reserve estimation techniques, the method is shown to adjust better to the dynamic nature of reserve requirements providing only what is needed to accommodate the expected deviations. Considering California Independent System Operator (CAISO) solar, wind and load data over an 18 month period, up to 67% reduction in the amount of reserve capacity needed for a one day reserve and reserve penalty for solar uncertainty is demonstrated. Additionally, the risk of reserve insufficiency in meeting the net demand is reduced by 20% with the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Flexibility Requirements for Energy Systems with Renewable Generation under Forecast Uncertainties

Energy systems with high fractions of renewable energy-based resources require adequate assets providing flexibility in electricity usage to maximize the benefits of renewable energy. In this paper, we provide an analytical approach to estimate the flexibility requirements of such energy systems, with forecast uncertainties in both demand and generation. Our analytical results show that even with forecast errors, the expected system operating cost decreases with an increase in the amount of flexibility capacity -- however, there is an inflection point, beyond which addition of further flexibility capacity does not reduce expected system cost any further. Additionally, an enumeration-based approach is presented to estimate the maximum flexibility capacity needed to optimize the operating cost. Numerical experiments conducted on a network-abstracted modified IEEE 30-bus system are used for empirical validation and gaining additional insights on the effect of prosumers' willingness to offer flexibility on the dispatch performance.

Bhattacharya, Saptarshi↗