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DOE OSTI2026

Exploring stages of resilience maturity as communities confront climate risks

Coastal communities are facing increased risks due to climate change, as evidenced by heightened shocks such as hurricanes and wildfires, and stressors including sea-level rise and drought. To confront these risks, many coastal communities are planning and designing their built environments in new ways, with the overall goal of increasing their resilience. However, resilience practices have been widely guided by an event-based timeframe, which may not be sufficient to confront the multiple and overlapping threats expected over the coming decades. To address this concern, this study investigated a long-term perspective on resilience progression, termed resilience maturity. To better understand resilience maturity in practice, this study drew directly on community perspectives, thereby identifying common challenges. Furthermore, variation in resilience maturity across communities provided an opportunity to identify existing successful strategies. Inductive qualitative analysis was used to examine perspectives from 15 interviews with local practitioners across 12 coastal communities. The analysis revealed that communities in early stages of resilience maturity often struggle with local stakeholder alignment and minimal dedicated resilience resources. In contrast, those further along the maturity path often face technology barriers and challenges in aligning regional stakeholders. Few examples of a fully mature resilience culture were found within the communities studied, underscoring systemic barriers to achieving advanced resilience maturity. Overall, these findings supported development of a practical framework for classifying community resilience efforts, identifying common obstacles, and informing localized resilience advancement.

Resilience maturity↗

DOE OSTI2020

Electricity Subsector Transmission Resilience Maturity Model (TRMM) User Guide

The electric transmission sector is facing a range of threats to its functionality that are either new, more severe than experienced in earlier years, or more well understood. Such threats include more frequent and more severe extreme weather events, wildfires, droughts, and human-caused physical and cyberattacks. They also include geological, electromagnetic, and biological events. The novelty or increasing severity of these threats creates a significant need for transmission owners to implement programs to prevent, prepare for, respond to, and recover from such incidents. The national and economic security of the United States depends on the reliable functioning of the Nation’s critical infrastructure in the face of such threats, and the transmission networks are essential components of that infrastructure. The Electricity Subsector Transmission Resilience Maturity Model (TRMM) is a tool that a transmission organization can use to objectively evaluate and benchmark its currently established transmission resilience strategies, programs, policies, and investments, in order to target and prioritize enhancements where needed. The TRMM was developed to address the unique characteristics of the transmission system. The model can enable users to: • evaluate and benchmark their organization’s resilience capabilities, effectively and consistently • prioritize actions and investments to improve the resilience of their systems • share transmission-related knowledge, best practices, and relevant references within their organization and with business partners as a means to improve resilience capabilities • contribute to increasing the overall resilience of the Nation’s transmission systems. The TRMM provides descriptive rather than prescriptive industry-focused guidance. The model content is presented at a high level of abstraction so that it can be interpreted by transmission organizations of various types, structures, and sizes. The model is designed to an be easy-to-use, self-assessment tool.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Perennials in Flood-Prone Areas of Agricultural Landscapes: A Climate Adaptation Strategy

Wet conditions across the US Midwest have forced farmers to delay planting of corn into June 2019, leading to a four-year low in projected corn yields. This event is part of a broader pattern that extends further back in history and is expected to worsen in future (Naz et al. 2016), raising concerns about the future sustainability of the corn-based economy. In this commentary, we suggest that deep-rooted perennial biomass crops will have considerable advantages for farmers under future climate once markets for cellulosic biofuels mature. Beyond climate-resilient cropping systems, research is suggesting that plants tolerant of wet conditions could benefit wetland conservation efforts while producing sustainable biomass for energy (Avellan et al. 2017, Melts et al. 2019).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Foundational Concepts in Simulation-Based Resilience Analysis and Design

Resilience is a topic of increasing interest–with ever-present calls from policymakers to increase the resilience of complex systems and infrastructure. However, resilience as a concept can be confusing, because of a lack of a common unified definition and frame of reference. Sometimes it can appear as if resilience analysis is merely duplicating other, more mature fields such as safety, reliability, or risk, while other times it seems as if resilience is providing an “alternative” view with limited rigor. To better understand the resilience concept (and its relation to the broader field of risk management), this paper will present the perspective of simulation-based resilience analysis and design, including some of the foundational precepts and resultant concepts defining the resilience concept. It will further present the motivation for using simulation to understand resilience and highlight some ongoing work and research challenges in this area. From this frame of reference, one can better understand the field of resilience, including how different aspects and definitions of resilience relate to each other, and how resilience relates to broader design considerations and practices.

resilience↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Foundational Concepts in Simulation-Based Resilience Analysis and Design

resilience↗

DOE OSTI2021

Using the CYBER-Champ Model to Determine Cyber Competencies and Role Alignment

Cybersecurity roles, tasks, and skills are seen by many organizations as nonessential, abstract, or complicated. Although standards are in place, such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) 800-181 document titled “Workforce Framework for Cybersecurity (NICE Framework)” available since September 2012, companies are still showing security vulnerabilities in their cyber networks (Hatzes, 2020). Barriers towards creating a cyber-ready workforce are not always due to a lack of resources, but often caused by organizational structure. The need for cyber-cognizant job postings, improved communication between Operational Technology (OT) and Information Technology (IT) employees, increases in staffing and funding for cyber teams, and better communication of standards and training can all contribute to increasing an organization’s cyber resilience. Cybersecurity Competency Health and Maturity Progression model (CYBER-CHAMP) is a model aimed at evaluating an organization’s structure and individual employee’s cyber knowledge and helps develop a plan to reach competency. This model was used to engage with organizations to promote proper cyber protocols and policies. The aim of this paper is to answer if it is possible for an organization to build a cyber-ready workforce by providing education and training options for current employees and prepare the future workforce to be ready on day one of employment. Both open source and firsthand interviews with organizations were used to conduct the research contained in this document. Further research may include additional development to the CYBER-CHAMP model and its delivery platform.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2019

A NASA Supply Chain Beyond Low Earth Orbit: Explore Moon to Mars

Presentation will highlight the Space Shuttle Program Lessons Learned with a simulation of the complexity, volatility and multi-functional relationships of the supplier base followed by a review of a key element in the NASA KSC Supply Chain/Logistics Strategic Roadmap to include supply chain resiliency modeling as impacted by 3D Printing technology maturation and campaign-level network flow modeling for logistics nodal positioning of critical product needed to support space operations and In-Space Manufacturing beyond Low Earth Orbit.

Supply Chain Analytics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Electricity Resilience Projects: State of the Art and Gap Analysis

Utilities and regulators must weigh the benefits of electricity resilience projects against their costs, which would be passed on to customers. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is an appropriate method for assessing this tradeoff. Here, in this paper we review the literature on CBA of electricity resilience projects and analyze gaps in the available methods and tools. The costs of resilience projects are typically straightforward to estimate but their benefits — particularly the avoided costs of power interruptions — are complex to quantify and monetize. A common perception among practitioners is that current CBA tools are not sufficiently mature to be adopted into real-world practice. We propose an electricity resilience CBA framework consisting of several elements: risks, physical impacts, power interruptions, economic impacts, and resilience projects. While methods for some elements are well-developed, there is a need for novel approaches to value avoided power interruptions, integrate multiple risks and benefit streams, and incorporate uncertainty.

Cost-benefit analysis↗

DOE OSTI2025

Non-destructive structural characterization of graphite components using mechanical resonance and deep learning

As compared to conventional nuclear reactors, microreactors have the potential to significantly reduce construction timelines and capital costs, decreasing the barriers for advanced nuclear reactor technologies. However, the lower power output of these microreactors (typically < 20 MWe) creates challenging economics if operation and maintenance costs cannot be sufficiently reduced. The compact size of these designs presents an opportunity for comprehensive in-situ structural health monitoring to provide real-time feedback in order to reduce operational costs associated with maintenance and downtime. Many microreactor concepts use graphite for both in-core neutron moderation and as a structural material, which has typically required some form of periodic and laborious inspection. This report provides a description and assessment of recent work with graphite to couple acoustic-based experimental measurements and characterization with machine learning models to mature structural health monitoring capabilities and generate benefits for the nuclear microreactor industry. With resilient embedded sensors in development in other programs funded by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy and elsewhere, the work described herein builds upon previously funded efforts to mature non-destructive testing technology that relates measured vibrational signatures to structural changes, using a combination of new experimental measurements and machine learning processing. Building on past successful demonstrations of predictive workflows to identify structural changes in a hexagonal stainless steel test article with excellent acoustic propagation, we first performed baseline characterization on graphite samples with canonical geometries to ensure compatibility and confidence in the applied techniques for a material with distinctly different mechanical properties. In contrast to efforts in previous years, we worked exclusively with unidirectional vibration data that is more comparable to those expected from the existing embedded sensor technologies which are suitable for deployment in a reactor setting. Established acoustic and modern machine-learning-based characterization approaches were applied to the resulting datasets from these simple geometries. Both approaches were found to be highly capable of detecting even small geometric irregularities amongst nominally identical samples. As such, we then moved to testing these approaches for detection of artificial local stress perturbations introduced into a more complex geometry: a hexagonal block with drilled holes. A main outcome of this work is that a generalizable ML workflow can be used to detect and predict the characteristics of small artificial anomalies in a graphite component with a relevant geometry. While this work was performed using surficial vibration data, we expect the approach to be flexible and viable for other monitoring scenarios, such as those with different arrangements or types of sensor arrays. As compared to previously funded efforts, an existing ML workflow based on neural networks was enhanced through the addition of recently developed Fourier neural operators. As applied to previously collected and new vibration datasets, prediction accuracies of anomaly characterizations were greatly improved with minimal added computational cost. As trained on small durations of vibration data (tens of seconds) collected over a realistic number of locations, the model was able to reliably determine the presence of a subtle stress anomaly and begin to provide location estimates. Such an approach is likely to be viable for more relevant reactor damage scenarios for graphite components, such as progressive crack growth or creep.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) lineages and sexes show variable patterns of association of adult migration timing and age‐at‐maturity traits with two genomic regions

Abstract As life history diversity plays a critical role in supporting the resilience of exploited populations, understanding the genetic basis of those life history variations is important for conservation management. However, effective application requires a robust understanding of the strength and universality of genetic associations. Here, we examine genetic variation of single nucleotide polymorphisms in genomic regions previously associated with migration phenology and age‐at‐maturity in steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) from the Columbia River. We found chromosome 28 markers (GREB1L, ROCK1 genes) explained significant variance in migration timing in both coastal and inland steelhead. However, strength of association was much greater in coastal than inland steelhead ( R 2 0.51 vs. 0.08), suggesting that genomic background and challenging inland migration pathways may act to moderate effects of this region. Further, we found that chromosome 25 candidate markers (SIX6 gene) were significantly associated with age and size at first return migration for inland steelhead, and this pattern was mediated by sex in a predictable pattern (males R 2 = 0.139–0.170; females R 2 = 0.096–0.111). While this encourages using these candidate regions in predicting life history characteristics, we suggest that stock‐specific associations and haplotype frequencies will be useful in guiding implementation of genetic assays to inform management.

Willis, Stuart C.↗

NASA NTRS2004

High Temperature Propulsion System Structural Seals for Future Space Launch Vehicles

High temperature, dynamic structural seals are required in advanced hypersonic engines to seal the perimeters of movable engine ramps for efficient, safe operation in high heat flux environments at temperatures from 2000 to 2500 F. NASA GRC became involved in the development of high temperature structural seals in the late 1980 s and early 1990 s during the National Aerospace Plane (NASP) program. Researchers at GRC carried out an in-house program to develop seals for the NASP hypersonic engine and oversaw industry efforts for airframe and propulsion system seal development for this vehicle. The figure shows one of the seal locations in the NASP engine. Seals were needed along the edges of movable panels in the engine to seal gaps between the panels and adjacent engine sidewalls. Seals developed during the NASP program met many requirements but fell short of leakage, durability, and resiliency goals. Due to program termination the seals could not be adequately matured. To overcome these shortfalls, GRC is currently developing advanced seals and seal preloading devices for the hypersonic engines of future space vehicles as part of NASA s Next Generation Launch Technology (NGLT) program.

Dunlap, Patrick H., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of two affinity matured Anti-Yersinia pestis F1 human antibodies with medical countermeasure potential

Yersinia pestis , the causative agent of plague and a biological threat agent, presents an urgent need for novel medical countermeasures due to documented cases of naturally acquired antibiotic resistance and potential person-to-person spread during a pneumonic infection. Immunotherapy has been proposed as a way to circumvent current and future antibiotic resistance. Here, we describe the development and characterization of two affinity matured human antibodies (αF1Ig AM2 and αF1Ig AM8) that promote survival of mice after exposure to aerosolized Y . pestis . We share details of the error prone PCR and yeast display technology-based affinity maturation process that we used. The resultant matured antibodies have nanomolar affinity for Y . pestis F1 antigen, are produced in high yield, and are resilient to 37°C stress for up to 6 months. Importantly, in vitro assays using a murine macrophage cell line demonstrated that αF1Ig AM2 and αF1Ig AM8 are opsonic. Even more importantly, in vivo studies using pneumonic plague mouse models showed that 100% of the mice receiving 500 μg of IgGs αF1Ig AM2 and αF1Ig AM8 survived lethal challenge with aerosolized Y . pestis CO92. Combined, these results provide evidence of the quality and robustness of αF1Ig AM2 and αF1Ig AM8 and support their development as potential medical countermeasures against plague.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Recommendations to Advance Space Trusted Autonomy

While the various space agencies of the U.S. federal government have distinctly different visions for future operational space systems, all share important foundational commonalities: improve mission performance, reduce mission costs, incorporate technology advances more rapidly, increase reliability and resiliency, reduce risk, and adapt to anomalies and environmental hazards. These common needs, combined with the maturation of autonomous technology and the prospect of leveraging autonomous systems to address these needs, have led each agency to consider how and when to implement increasing levels of autonomy in their space systems. Simultaneously, the related question of how to determine the trustworthiness of an autonomous system is also escalating in significance.

Christopher A Jones↗

DOE OSTI2020

Invite the Chaos Monkey: Test Effect Payloads for Tuning ICS Incident Response

In 2010, when Netflix moved their operational systems to the cloud, they developed a pseudo-random mechanism to cause deliberate outages and failures of key system elements to ensure that automated systems for detecting and remediating outages were mature and fully functional. This Chaos Monkey spawned an entire Simian Army designed to ensure system resilience and enable failure response before issues became outages. Through the DARPA RADICS program, Provatech, INL, and other researchers have developed a mechanism for creating controllable failures via Test Effect Payloads (TEPs) for Industrial Control Systems in order to enable an asset owner to tune network and process sensor technology, increase the effectiveness of incident response and remediation, and highlight areas where resilient technology could bring benefit to Operational Technology. This talk will explore what a TEP is, how to create a TEP, and suggest what a systematic system resilience plan using TEP’s might look like. We will also discuss how regulated entities might employ TEP’s in a compliant resilience strategy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Boosts in leaf-level photosynthetic capacity aid Pinus ponderosa recovery from wildfire

Forests mitigate climate change by sequestering massive amounts of carbon, but recent increases in wildfire activity are threatening carbon storage. Currently, our understanding of wildfire impacts on forest resilience and the mechanisms controlling post-fire recovery remains unresolved due to a lack of empirical data on mature trees in natural settings. Here, we quantify the physiological mechanisms controlling carbon uptake immediately following wildfire in mature individuals of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), a wide-spread and canopy-dominant tree species in fire-prone forests. While photosynthetic capacity was lower in burned than unburned trees due to an overall depletion of resources, we show that within the burned trees, photosynthetic capacity increases with the severity of damage. Our data reveal that boosts in the efficiency of carbon uptake at the leaf-level may compensate for whole-tree damage, including the loss of leaf area and roots. We further show that heightened photosynthetic capacity in remaining needles on burned trees may be linked with reduced water stress and leaf nitrogen content, providing pivotal information about post-fire physiological processes. Our results have implications for Earth system modeling efforts because measurements of species-level physiological parameters are used in models to predict ecosystem and landscape-level carbon trajectories. Finally, current land management practices do not account for physiological resilience and recovery of severely burned trees. Our results suggest premature harvest may remove individuals that may otherwise survive, irrevocably altering forest carbon balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A genomic region associated with iteroparous spawning phenology is linked with age‐at‐maturity in female steelhead trout

Abstract Age‐at‐maturity and iteroparity are two life history variations of steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) that are believed to increase population resilience and stability. While repeat‐spawning individuals are thought to have historically made up a substantial portion of the reproductive population in the Columbia River and the majority of females still attempt outmigration as kelts, return rates of repeat‐spawner are low throughout the basin and below 1% for the furthest migrating stocks. Notably, outmigrating adults exhibit variation in rematuration phenology, displaying either “consecutive” (reproduce immediately the following season) or “skip” (delay spawning for future seasons) spawning patterns. Here, we use low coverage whole genome sequencing of consecutive versus skip spawning female Columbia River steelhead from two populations to test for genomic differences between these two iteroparous phenotypes. We identified genomic regions on several chromosomes which were associated with the phenology of iteroparity, including a region on chromosome 25 containing two genes, estradiol receptor beta ( ER β) and glycoprotein hormone beta‐5 ( GPHB5 ), which, in mammals, are estrogen‐sensitive and expressed in reproductive tissues. Allele frequencies in this ER β/ GPHB5 region differed among female steelhead of different age at maturity, but not males. These genes also shared an island of linkage disequilibrium with the SIX6 gene, 600Kbp away on the same chromosome, a region of known association with age‐at‐maturity. These observations contribute to growing evidence that age‐at‐maturity and the phenology of iteroparity are determined by overlapping physiological processes and genetic pathways.

Willis, Stuart↗

DOE OSTI2022

Irrigation Modernization Task 4: Accelerating Energy Solutions (FY2022 Final Report)

This report offers insights on energy solutions for irrigation modernization that serve the needs of farmers as well as residents and industry in the local community. Solutions are found in the irrigation districts where local generation from renewable energy sources – solar, hydro, and wind – can be combined with energy storage and customer loads. These combined resources configured in microgrids can lower costs during peak loads and provide resiliency by maintaining electricity supply during outages. The goal of this project, as stated in the FY2022 AOP, is to promote realization of energy solutions that are tailored to physical location, community, infrastructure, and energy value streams. Further, it is to develop examples of how to increase value of, and overcome barriers to, energy solutions in the context of irrigation modernization. In pursuit of that goal, the project looked at options for: 1) Reducing the cost of energy consumed in irrigation systems, 2) Increasing the revenue from surplus power generation, and 3) Deploying new power generation configured as part of a local microgrid. Potential solutions to reducing energy costs and increasing surplus power revenue revolve around addressing regulatory and legal constraints tied to how power is purchased by and sold to the irrigator or irrigation district. Some headway was made in identifying barriers and ways to push utilities to be more accommodating to distributed energy sources; however, for the most part, real progress hinges on changes at the regulatory and legislative level. Deployment of local, renewable generation systems can be implemented provided the economics of the project and the location are favorable. In concert with Famers Conservation Alliance and Energy Trust of Oregon, a number of approaches were studied in the past year, including off-grid solar powered pumps, grid-tied community solar projects, and in-conduit canal hydropower systems. Ultimately three viable projects were identified: 1) North Unit Irrigation District/City of Redmond, Oregon Critical Facility Microgrid – offers combined in-conduit hydro and solar power generation. 2) Wallowa County/Joseph, Oregon Irrigation System Upgrades – centered on upgrades to a non-powered dam that will add a turbine as well as in-conduit power in canal feeders downstream. 3) Medford, Oregon Wastewater Treatment Plant Biogas Cogeneration System – centered on building out biogas storage and grid upgrades to power the plant, sell excess power, and provide emergency backup power (supplanting a diesel generator). Each of these projects has characteristics that broaden the understanding of the value of microgrids employing renewable energy to achieve resiliency and net-zero carbon goals. The first two projects are centered on new hydropower systems. Although the Medford project is only tangentially tied to an irrigation district, it was selected for study analysis as it was the only one mature enough (with sufficient data) to complete an analysis within this project year. Thus, we chose to move forward developing a case study, in concert with the Community Water-Power Resilience project, to demonstrate a method for evaluating such projects. Essentially, this case study serves as a template for studies to be carried out next year that more directly involve irrigation system hydropower, e.g., the project at the Wallowa County/Joseph, Oregon Irrigation System. Lastly, it is recognized that the locations and case studies in this report are all located in Oregon. We recognize this as a limitation. While the intent is not to ignore other states or regions, this result is driven by the fact that we have cultivated a collaboration with non-profit entities in Oregon that focus on these topics – Farmers Conservation Alliance and Energy Trust of Oregon. These partners were central to identifying projects that may be good fits for this program. A goal in the coming year is to establish collaboration with entities in other states/regions that, similarly, can connect us to potential projects in their geographic area. The potential benefits from the WPTO’s support for demonstration projects as energy solutions in irrigation districts include: (1) Alternative power supplies for communities and farms using renewable, carbon-free energy resources, (2) Cost savings for electricity for communities and farms, (3) Resiliency of power supplies for critical loads when electricity from the grid is not available, (4) Resiliency of power supplies for critical infrastructure in the event of catastrophic events, and (5) Demonstration of irrigation modernization projects that provide resilience and a reduced carbon footprint to irrigation districts and nearby communities. These deployments can serve as vanguards/archetypes spurring similar projects in other districts and states.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Differential effects of drought on nonstructural carbohydrate storage in seedlings and mature trees of four species in a subtropical forest

Nonstructural carbohydrates (NSC) play important roles in forest vulnerability to climate change, especially under increasing drought intensity and frequency. Understanding NSC dynamics is essential for accurately predicting the resistance and resilience of forests in response to drought. However, our knowledge of NSC re-sponses to drought is still limited due to the lack of research in trees of di?erent life stages. In this study, we conducted a throughfall exclusion experiment (TFE) with four subtropical evergreen tree species to examine drought e?ects on NSC in mature trees and understory seedlings. Our results showed the differential effects of drought on NSC dynamics of understory seedlings and mature trees. In the TFE experiment, mature trees of all four species were relatively homoeostatic with the insigni?cantly changed NSC pools, photosynthesis, and growth under the drought treatment compared to the control. In contrast, understory seedlings displayed sig-ni?cant decreases in total NSC and soluble sugars (-14.70 ± 3.66% and -16.93 ± 3.85%, respectively) with the exception of Lithocarpus glaber (L. glaber). The seedlings of L. glaber with the highest hydraulic resistance maintained or slightly increased NSC and its components in response to drought. Our study highlights the im-portance of life stage in assessing drought e?ects of trees on NSC storage and then forest C cycling, which could be incorporated into the dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to better understand drought effects on forest C balance in the future.

Zhang, Peipei↗