Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Risk Based Analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments

A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

technology↗
NASA NTRS1986

Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering process parameters are elicited from the engineer/expert on the project and are based on that expert's technical knowledge. These are converted by a parametric cost model into a cost estimate. The method discussed makes no assumptions about the distribution underlying the distribution of possible costs, and is not tied to the analysis of previous projects, except through the expert calibrations performed by the parametric cost analyst.

Dean, Edwin B.↗
NASA NTRS2015

SMART: A Propositional Logic-Based Trade Analysis and Risk Assessment Tool for a Complex Mission

This paper introduces a new trade analysis software called the Space Mission Architecture and Risk Analysis Tool (SMART). This tool supports a high-level system trade study on a complex mission, such as a potential Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission, in an intuitive and quantitative manner. In a complex mission, a common approach to increase the probability of success is to have redundancy and prepare backups. Quantitatively evaluating the utility of adding redundancy to a system is important but not straightforward, particularly when the failure of parallel subsystems are correlated.

Ono, Masahiro↗
NASA NTRS2006

Aircraft Conceptual Design and Risk Analysis Using Physics-Based Noise Prediction

An approach was developed which allows for design studies of commercial aircraft using physics-based noise analysis methods while retaining the ability to perform the rapid trade-off and risk analysis studies needed at the conceptual design stage. A prototype integrated analysis process was created for computing the total aircraft EPNL at the Federal Aviation Regulations Part 36 certification measurement locations using physics-based methods for fan rotor-stator interaction tones and jet mixing noise. The methodology was then used in combination with design of experiments to create response surface equations (RSEs) for the engine and aircraft performance metrics, geometric constraints and take-off and landing noise levels. In addition, Monte Carlo analysis was used to assess the expected variability of the metrics under the influence of uncertainty, and to determine how the variability is affected by the choice of engine cycle. Finally, the RSEs were used to conduct a series of proof-of-concept conceptual-level design studies demonstrating the utility of the approach. The study found that a key advantage to using physics-based analysis during conceptual design lies in the ability to assess the benefits of new technologies as a function of the design to which they are applied. The greatest difficulty in implementing physics-based analysis proved to be the generation of design geometry at a sufficient level of detail for high-fidelity analysis.

Olson, Erik D.↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Risk-Based Approach for Aerothermal/TPS Analysis and Testing

The current status of aerothermal and thermal protection system modeling for civilian entry missions is reviewed. For most such missions, the accuracy of our simulations is limited not by the tools and processes currently employed, but rather by reducible deficiencies in the underlying physical models. Improving the accuracy of and reducing the uncertainties in these models will enable a greater understanding of the system level impacts of a particular thermal protection system and of the system operation and risk over the operational life of the system. A strategic plan will be laid out by which key modeling deficiencies can be identified via mission-specific gap analysis. Once these gaps have been identified, the driving component uncertainties are determined via sensitivity analyses. A Monte-Carlo based methodology is presented for physics-based probabilistic uncertainty analysis of aerothermodynamics and thermal protection system material response modeling. These data are then used to advocate for and plan focused testing aimed at reducing key uncertainties. The results of these tests are used to validate or modify existing physical models. Concurrently, a testing methodology is outlined for thermal protection materials. The proposed approach is based on using the results of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses discussed above to tailor ground testing so as to best identify and quantify system performance and risk drivers. A key component of this testing is understanding the relationship between the test and flight environments. No existing ground test facility can simultaneously replicate all aspects of the flight environment, and therefore good models for traceability to flight are critical to ensure a low risk, high reliability thermal protection system design. Finally, the role of flight testing in the overall thermal protection system development strategy is discussed.

Wright, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Nuclear Radiation Fields on the Mars Surface: Risk Analysis for Long-term Living Environment

Mars, our nearest planet outward from the sun, has been targeted for several decades as a prospective site for expanded human habitation. Background space radiation exposures on Mars are expected to be orders of magnitude higher than on Earth. Recent risk analysis procedures based on detailed dosimetric techniques applicable to sensitive human organs have been developed along with experimental data regarding cell mutation rates resulting from exposures to a broad range of particle types and energy spectra. In this context, simulated exposure and subsequent risk for humans in residence on Mars are examined. A conceptual habitat structure, CAD-modeled with duly considered inherent shielding properties, has been implemented. Body self-shielding is evaluated using NASA standard computerized male and female models. The background environment is taken to consist not only of exposure from incident cosmic ray ions and their secondaries, but also include the contribution from secondary neutron fields produced in the tenuous atmosphere and the underlying regolith.

Brooke M Anderson↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Evolution of the NASA Commercial Crew Program Mission Assurance Process

In 2010, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the Commercial Crew Program (CCP) in order to provide human access to the International Space Station and low Earth orbit via the commercial (non-governmental) sector. A particular challenge to NASA has been how to determine that the Commercial Provider's transportation system complies with programmatic safety requirements. The process used in this determination is the Safety Technical Review Board which reviews and approves provider submitted hazard reports. One significant product of the review is a set of hazard control verifications. In past NASA programs, 100% of these safety critical verifications were typically confirmed by NASA. The traditional Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) model does not support the nature of the CCP. To that end, NASA S&MA is implementing a Risk Based Assurance process to determine which hazard control verifications require NASA authentication. Additionally, a Shared Assurance Model is also being developed to efficiently use the available resources to execute the verifications.

Mission Assurance↗
NASA NTRS2016

The NASA Commercial Crew Program (CCP) Mission Assurance Process

In 2010, NASA established the Commercial Crew Program in order to provide human access to the International Space Station and low earth orbit via the commercial (non-governmental) sector. A particular challenge to NASA has been how to determine the commercial providers transportation system complies with Programmatic safety requirements. The process used in this determination is the Safety Technical Review Board which reviews and approves provider submitted Hazard Reports. One significant product of the review is a set of hazard control verifications. In past NASA programs, 100 percent of these safety critical verifications were typically confirmed by NASA. The traditional Safety and Mission Assurance (SMA) model does not support the nature of the Commercial Crew Program. To that end, NASA SMA is implementing a Risk Based Assurance (RBA) process to determine which hazard control verifications require NASA authentication. Additionally, a Shared Assurance Model is also being developed to efficiently use the available resources to execute the verifications. This paper will describe the evolution of the CCP Mission Assurance process from the beginning of the Program to its current incarnation. Topics to be covered include a short history of the CCP; the development of the Programmatic mission assurance requirements; the current safety review process; a description of the RBA process and its products and ending with a description of the Shared Assurance Model.

Commercial Crew Program↗
NASA NTRS2006

Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

Malin, Jane T.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Experiences with Text Mining Large Collections of Unstructured Systems Development Artifacts at JPL

Often repositories of systems engineering artifacts at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) are so large and poorly structured that they have outgrown our capability to effectively manually process their contents to extract useful information. Sophisticated text mining methods and tools seem a quick, low-effort approach to automating our limited manual efforts. Our experiences of exploring such methods mainly in three areas including historical risk analysis, defect identification based on requirements analysis, and over-time analysis of system anomalies at JPL, have shown that obtaining useful results requires substantial unanticipated efforts - from preprocessing the data to transforming the output for practical applications. We have not observed any quick 'wins' or realized benefit from short-term effort avoidance through automation in this area. Surprisingly we have realized a number of unexpected long-term benefits from the process of applying text mining to our repositories. This paper elaborates some of these benefits and our important lessons learned from the process of preparing and applying text mining to large unstructured system artifacts at JPL aiming to benefit future TM applications in similar problem domains and also in hope for being extended to broader areas of applications.

text mining↗
NASA NTRS2000

Model-Based Testability Assessment and Directed Troubleshooting of Shuttle Wiring Systems

We have recently completed a pilot study on the Space shuttle wiring system commissioned by the Wiring Integrity Research (WIRe) team at NASA Ames Research Center, As the space shuttle ages, it is experiencing wiring degradation problems including arcing, chaffing insulation breakdown and broken conductors. A systematic and comprehensive test process is required to thoroughly test and quality assure (QA) the wiring systems. The NASA WIRe team recognized the value of a formal model based analysis for risk-assessment and fault coverage analysis. However. wiring systems are complex and involve over 50,000 wire segments. Therefore, NASA commissioned this pilot study with Qualtech Systems. Inc. (QSI) to explore means of automatically extracting high fidelity multi-signal models from wiring information database for use with QSI's Testability Engineering and Maintenance System (TEAMS) tool.

Deb, Somnath↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supply and Resource Management to Progressively Enable EIMO

BACKGROUND: Current medical operations in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) allow for real-time audio-video communication with a flight surgeon at mission control, resupply, and medical evacuation to earth on the order of hours. As mission profiles change from LEO to the Moon, Mars, and beyond, medical risk as a contribution to overall mission risk is anticipated to rise substantially. Concurrently, due to the distance, the medical systems on board vehicles proposed for these mission types are expected to have reduced mass and volume allocation. Together, astronaut crews will be at a higher risk of major medical events, be required to perform a broader set of tasks, and have substantially reduced resources and support to do so. Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) aims to identify and fill the gaps present in this progressively changing paradigm. OVERVIEW: Medical supplies, resources, and skills are central to spaceflight medical systems. Vehicles used for non-LEO missions are anticipated to be smaller and thus the medical system will also need to have reduced mass, volume, and power. Medical resources are another form of consumable and may need resupply or pre-deployment to meet crew needs. One particular concern is the degradation of medications which become less efficacious and potentially toxic with time, particularly given environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity, oxygen, and radiation which have not yet been fully studied. Supply and resource management in LEO is dependent on resupply, however the supply chain of transporting equipment does not yet have a clear infrastructure for missions beyond LEO. DISCUSSION: EIMO is intended to systemically identify and fill these gaps with forward-looking solutions. In mission monitoring of resources with technology like RFID, improving medical resource longevity, targeted resupply and careful pre-mission planning will be central to facilitate crew health and performance. One approach to optimizing resources is the Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool, which uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to quantitatively predict medical risk and identify resources and skills that mitigate this risk. This evidence based, quantitative analysis prediction tool and several other approaches to meeting the challenge of supply and resource management are discussed.

Arian Anderson↗
NASA NTRS2004

Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

Eisenhawer, S. W.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Towards Risk Based Design for NASA's Missions

This paper describes the concept of Risk Based Design in the context of NASA s low volume, high cost missions. The concept of accounting for risk in the design lifecycle has been discussed and proposed under several research topics, including reliability, risk analysis, optimization, uncertainty, decision-based design, and robust design. This work aims to identify and develop methods to enable and automate a means to characterize and optimize risk, and use risk as a tradeable resource to make robust and reliable decisions, in the context of the uncertain and ambiguous stage of early conceptual design. This paper first presents a survey of the related topics explored in the design research community as they relate to risk based design. Then, a summary of the topics from the NASA-led Risk Colloquium is presented, followed by current efforts within NASA to account for risk in early design. Finally, a list of "risk elements", identified for early-phase conceptual design at NASA, is presented. The purpose is to lay the foundation and develop a roadmap for future work and collaborations for research to eliminate and mitigate these risk elements in early phase design.

Tumer, Irem Y.↗