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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Determining Appropriate Risk Remediation Thresholds from Empirical Conjunction Data Using Survival Probability Methods

Satellites sometimes maneuver before conjunctions to remediate the risk of an on-orbit collision. Many missions use probability of collision (P_c) thresholds to decide when such maneuvers should be performed. These thresholds tend to be conservative because of policies that require satellites survive their lifetimes without collision with high confidence (e.g., 99.9%). This study presents a semi-empirical method to estimate remediation P_c thresholds that satisfy such lifetime risk requirements. The formulation combines survival probability analysis with empirical conjunction histories to estimate remediation thresholds as a function of satellite size, remaining on-orbit duration, lifetime collision probability limit, collision consequence, and other parameters.

Risk Remediation↗
NASA NTRS2019

Determining Appropriate Risk Remediation Thresholds from Empirical Conjunction Data Using Survival Probability Methods

Satellites sometimes maneuver before conjunctions to remediate the risk of an on-orbit collision. Many missions use probability of collision (P(sub c)) thresholds to decide when such maneuvers should be performed. These thresholds tend to be conservative because of policies that require satellites survive their lifetimes without collision with high confidence (e.g., 99.9%). This study presents a semi-empirical method to estimate remediation P(sub c) thresholds that satisfy such lifetime risk requirements. The formulation combines survival probability analysis with empirical conjunction histories to estimate remediation thresholds as a function of satellite size, remaining on-orbit duration, lifetime collision probability limit, collision consequence, and other parameters.

Risk remediation thresholds↗
NASA NTRS2013

NASA Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Remediation Technology Collaboration Development

NASA is committed to finding solutions to agency cleanup problems that are better, cheaper, and more effective than the status quo. Unfortunately, some potential solutions involve innovative technologies for which NASA remediation managers may not have a high level of understanding or confidence. Since 2004, NASA's Stennis Space Center (SSC) in Mississippi has been pumping groundwater contaminated with trichloroethylene (TCE) and other halogenated volatile organic compounds (HVOC) from their cleanup location designated "Area G" through extraction wells to an aboveground treatment system. Over time, however, the effectiveness of this treatment strategy has diminished and an alternative approach is needed. In 2012, professionals from NASA's Principal Center for Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) introduced SSC managers to an innovative technology for enhancing the performance of SSC's existing pump and treat system. The technology, generally referred to as in situ chemical oxidation (ISCO), involves slowly and continuously injecting a strong but safe chemical oxidant into the groundwater. Treatment is enhanced by a "surfactant-type effect" which causes residual contamination from saturated soil to be released into the dissolved-phase where it can be readily oxidized. Any dissolved-phase contamination that was not oxidized can be collected by the extraction well network and treated aboveground. SSC was not familiar with the technology so to increase their confidence, TEERM identified a contractor who was willing to demonstrate their product and process at a significantly reduced price. An initial, small-scale demonstration of ISCO began at sse in March 2012 and completed in August 2012. This successful demonstration was followed by three larger-scale ISCO demonstrations between August and December 2012. The contractor's innovative Continuous Injection System (CIS) incorporated "green" and sustainable technologies and practices. A slow injection rate was maintained autonomously by the CIS, eliminating the need for multiple mobilizations of personnel and powered equipment. The CIS was calibrated to deliver only as much reagent as the formation would accept without "short circuiting", minimizing material waste. Public utility water pressure was used to mix, dilute, and inject the reagent. NASA personnel were trained to operate and maintain the system and remote monitoring and injection control capabilities were developed, further reducing the need for contractor mobilizations to the site. An integrated solar photovoltaic panel was used to power the control valves and web monitoring telemetry. SSC provided hydrogen peroxide for the process using their existing supplier for the aboveground pump and treat systems. The only consumable required from the contractor was their proprietary activator to catalyze SSC's peroxide.

Romeo, James↗
NASA NTRS2019

Satellite Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis for "Dilution Region" Events: Issues and Operational Approaches

An important activity within Space Traffic Management is the detection and prevention of possible on-orbit collisions between space objects. The principal parameter for assessing collision likelihood is the probability of collision, which is widely accepted among conjunction assessment practitioners; but it possesses a known deficiency in that it can produce a false sense of safety when the orbital position uncertainties for the conjuncting objects are high. The probability of collision is said to be “diluted” in such a situation and to understate the possible risk; certain approaches have been recommended by researchers to provide (largely conservative) risk estimates and remediation methodologies in these cases. The present analysis explores two of the main proposals for quantifying and remediating possible risk in the dilution region and quantifies their operational implications. These implications with regard to imputed additional workload are considerable, especially in anticipating the conjunction event levels expected with the deployment of the USAF Space Fence radar. This effort has been undertaken as part of a larger enterprise that seeks to clarify the philosophical and statistical underpinnings of the conjunction risk assessment process. The analysis presented herein argues that a form of hypothesis testing is implicitly used in conjunction assessment risk analysis, and that there are a number of conceptual and practical reasons for constructing the associated null hypothesis to counsel against a satellite conjunction remediation action. In short, it is concluded that, for the purposes of determining whether a conjunction remediation action should be pursued, dilution-region probabilities of collision should be treated no differently from those produced under other circumstances.

Probability of collision↗
NASA NTRS1998

Program Risk Planning with Risk as a Resource

The current focus of NASA on cost effective ways of achieving mission objectives has created a demand for a change in the risk management process of a program. At present, there is no guidelines as to when risk taking is justified due to high cost for a marginal improvement in risk. As a remedial step, Dr. Greenfield of NASA, developed a concept of risk management with risk as a resource. In the report, the following topics are addressed: (1) the risk management approach; (2) planning risk and program life cycle; (3) key components of a typical program; (4) the risk trading methodology; (5) review and decision process; (6) merits of the proposed risk planning approach; and (7) recommendations.

Ray, Paul S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

CARA Risk Assessment Thresholds

Warning remediation threshold (Red threshold): Pc level at which warnings are issued, and active remediation considered and usually executed. Analysis threshold (Green to Yellow threshold): Pc level at which analysis of event is indicated, including seeking additional information if warranted. Post-remediation threshold: Pc level to which remediation maneuvers are sized in order to achieve event remediation and obviate any need for immediate follow-up maneuvers. Maneuver screening threshold: Pc compliance level for routine maneuver screenings (more demanding than regular Red threshold due to additional maneuver uncertainty).

conjunction↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Decision Aid for Conjunction Risk Mitigation by Differential Drag

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team has conducted are view of the historical record of high-risk conjunctions involving CARA-protected missions and evaluated whether (and how much) differential drag can provide effective mitigation. From this analysis, CARA has identified a rule of thumb: missions with perigees below 560 km capable of tripling their drag area for 72 hours(or a larger scale factor for a lesser amount of time) can reliably use differential drag to remediate high-risk events.

mission design↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Decision Aid for Conjunction Risk Mitigation by Differential Drag

In the previous five years, the rate of conjunctions that the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team processed and analyzed has more than tripled. (NASA CARA, 2024) New missions in the early development phases are now required to plan for dealing with conjunctions under the present space environment, and also projecting forward into a future likely with even further increased utilization of the space environment. Some missions are investigating the possibility of using differential drag to remediate conjunctions without expending limited fuel or for missions without propulsive capabilities. The NASA CARA team studied the historical record of conjunctions to evaluate the circumstances under which differential drag may be successfully applied and have developed a series of tables to use as a decision aid for missions considering differential drag. Currently, if a CARA-protected mission with maneuvering capabilities is predicted to have a conjunction with probability of collision (Pc) greater than 7E-5 (the default value of the ‘yellow threshold’, which may have some other value agreed by CARA and the mission during the Orbital Collison Avoidance Planning (OCAP) process), CARA will use its Maneuver Trade Space (MTS) tool to evaluate and recommend options for the timing and magnitude of a risk mitigation maneuver (RMM), based on the mission’s capabilities. If the conjunction’s Pc is greater than 1E-4, the ‘red threshold’, then an RMM must be executed per NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8079.1 (NASA, 2023), although missions may execute an RMM even if the Pc is lower. The magnitude of the maneuver is typically a few cm/s, and CARA estimates how many will be required for the mission’s nominal lifetime – typically a few per year – during the OCAP process, to inform the mission’s delta-V requirement. For traditional satellites, this is usually smaller than other requirements for orbit insertion, maintenance, and disposal, but for CubeSats or other small satellite missions, a propulsion system may not provide much more than a few cm/s of delta-V or may not fit at all within the available budget of money, time, size, weight, and/or power (SWaP). Conversely, CubeSats often have deployable solar panels, which offer the capacity to have much higher areas facing some directions than others. Such a mission can instead use ‘differential drag’ to remediate a conjunction -- in other words, change its drag area (usually increasing) to deviate from the predicted collision course. This is how Planet’s Dove spacecraft maintain their formations and remediate conjunction risks without having on-board propulsion (Foster, et al., 2017) (Griffith, et al., 2021). CARA has been developing improvements to MTS to support differential-drag for NASA's missions -- where it is effective. CARA records all conjunctions of their protected payloads, with historical records starting in 2005 (with significant conjunction events starting to occur on or after 2013). From this record, approximately 7,300 had a Pc greater than 1E-4 at 3 days prior to the time of closest approach, the time analyzed for differential drag efficacy. Of those, approximately 4,300 had fully-defined covariance matrices stored for both the primary and secondary objects; this set of conjunctions is the basis for the analysis of this work. CARA’s MTS tool was used to propagate the primary satellite forward from that decision point with varying degrees of increase to ballistic coefficient (BC). Because these conjunctions came from multiple missions, the nondimensional ‘delta-BC’ factor was used to quantify and normalize the increase in ballistic coefficient, defined as follows: Delta-BC = BC_new / BC_old - 1 Positive delta-BC factors represent an increase in drag compared to the nominal attitude, while negative delta-BC factors (to a minimum of -1) represent a decrease in drag. At the conclusion of the differential-drag ‘maneuver’, the Pc was recalculated to evaluate whether or not the conjunction was mitigated (Pc < 3E-6). These results were then binned and sorted along several axes, including altitude, amount of delta-BC, and (pre-maneuver) rate of energy dissipation (EDR), to identify underlying patterns. The altitude plot is shown in Figure 1. To validate this analysis, we consulted the record of a NASA mission which uses differential drag to maintain its orbit and remediate conjunction risk. CARA’s empirical record of the mission’s orbit history suggests it achieves a delta-BC of 2.2. Of the twenty-one RMM plans that were submitted by this mission, eighteen were matched with conjunctions in the historical record; of those, twelve were successfully remediated (final measured Pc < 3E-6), and six were not. This is consistent with the expected efficacy for missions orbiting at that altitude. We are presently simulating this mission’s RMMs with MTS; this work is ongoing, but so far, the MTS results are qualitatively in agreement with the empirical results -- correctly predicting that a maneuver would or would not remediate a conjunction, if not exactly matching the final post-remediation Pc value. We found that differential drag was most successful for satellites with perigees below 560 km, and which could adopt an average delta-BC of 2 or greater (that is, increasing their ballistic coefficient by a factor of 3). However, this is a difficult threshold for a mission to clear; very few spacecraft are capable of adopting a high-drag configuration for 72 hours continuously. Planet’s Dove spacecraft use differential drag to remediate conjunctions (Griffith, et al., 2021), and they have a maximum delta-BC factor of 9, but in practice (with mission and charging constraints) they achieve a time-averaged delta-BC that is closer to 2 (Foster, et al., 2017). A mission’s differential drag utility strongly depends on the operational constraints that has the capacity to limit the time-averaged delta-BC. A mission with a high maximum delta-BC of 5 or more can have an effective delta-BC of less than 1 due to operational constraints such as instrument and solar panel pointing, especially if this constraint results in holding an intermediate drag value for most of its orbit. CARA has developed tables that can be used as decision aids to advise missions-in-development about the best way to utilize their differential drag capabilities. For missions below 560 km with the operational flexibility to devote multiple days to holding a high-drag configuration (or a sufficiently high drag ratio to compensate for limitations on that time), they are -- more likely than not -- able to successfully remediate high-risk conjunctions. Conversely, missions that do not meet these exacting criteria -- most missions -- can instead be advised to use on-board propulsion systems to perform RMMs, or to turn their minimum-area face towards the approach vector, thereby reducing Pc at the moment of conjunction due to the decreased Hard-Body Radius (HBR), that is a strongly correlated variable in the Pc calculations. (NASA, 2023)

conjunction assessment↗
NASA NTRS2023

Orbital Debris Remediation: Should We Move, Remove, or Reuse Debris?

One way of reducing the risks orbital debris poses to spacecraft operators is to remediate or “clean up” debris. A piece of debris can be remediated by removing it from space, moving it to avoid collision, or finding a way to recycle it. It is unclear which is the best option, so this panel will explore the trade-offs and move toward developing the best possible portfolio to clean up the orbital environment.

Thomas Colvin↗
NASA NTRS2009

Handbook for Designing MMOD Protection

Spacecraft are subject to micro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impact damage which have the potential to degrade performance, shorten the mission, or result in catastrophic loss of the vehicle. Specific MMOD protection requirements are established by NASA for each spacecraft early in the program/project life, to ensure the spacecraft meets desired safety and mission success goals. Both the design and operations influences spacecraft survivability in the MMOD environment, and NASA considers both in meeting MMOD protection requirements. The purpose of this handbook is to provide spacecraft designers and operations personnel with knowledge gained by NASA in implementing effective MMOD protection for the International Space Station, Space Shuttle, and various science spacecraft. It has been drawn from a number of previous publications [10-14], as well as new work. This handbook documents design and operational methods to reduce MMOD risk. In addition, this handbook describes tools and equations needed to design proper MMOD protection. It is a living report, in that it will be updated and re-released periodically in future with additional information. Providing effective and efficient MMOD protection is essential for ensuring safe and successful operations of spacecraft and satellites. A variety of shields protect crew modules, external pressurized vessels and critical equipment from MMOD on the International Space Station (ISS). Certain Space Shuttle Orbiter vehicle systems are hardened from MMOD impact, and operational rules are established to reduce the risk from MMOD (i.e., flight attitudes are selected and late inspection of sensitive thermal protection surfaces are conducted to reduce MMOD impacts). Science spacecraft include specific provisions to meet MMOD protection requirements in their design (for example, Stardust & GLAST). Commercial satellites such as Iridium and Bigelow Aerospace Genesis spacecraft incorporate MMOD protection. The development of low-weight, effective MMOD protection has enabled these spacecraft missions to be performed successfully. This handbook describes these shielding techniques. For future exploration activities to the Moon and Mars, implementing high-performance MMOD shielding will be necessary to meet protection requirements with minimum mass penalty. A current area of technology development in MMOD shielding is the incorporation of sensors to detect and locate MMOD impact damage. Depending on the type of sensor the signals from the sensor can be processed to infer the location of the impact and the extent of damage. The objective of the sensors is to locate critical damage that would endanger the spacecraft or crew immediately or during reentry (such as an air leak from crew module or critical damage to thermal protection system of reentry vehicles). The information from the sensors can then be used with repair kits, patch kits, hatch closure or other appropriate remedial techniques to reduce MMOD risk.

Arnold, Jim↗
NASA NTRS2015

Collision Avoidance Short Course: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis - NASA Robotic CARA: Theory - Part I:

Satellite conjunction assessment is perhaps the fastest growing area in space situational awareness and protection with military, civil and commercial satellite owner-operators embracing more and more sophisticated processes to avoid the avoidable - namely collisions between high value space assets and orbital debris. NASA and Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) have collaborated to offer an introductory short course on all the major aspects of the conjunctions assessment problem. This half-day course will cover satellite conjunction dynamics and theory. Joint Space Operations Center (JsPOC) conjunction data products, major risk assessment parameters and plots, conjunction remediation decision support, and present and future challenges. This briefing represents the NASA portion of the course.

Conjunction↗
NASA NTRS2017

Collision Avoidance Short Course Part I: Theory

Satellite conjunction assessment is perhaps the fastest-growing area in space situational awareness and protection, with military, civil, and commercial satellite owner operators embracing more and more sophisticated processes to avoid the avoidable namely collisions between high-value space assets and orbital debris. NASA and CNES have collaborated to offer an introductory short course on all the major aspects of the conjunction assessment problem. This half-day course will cover satellite conjunction dynamics and theory, JSpOC conjunction data products, major risk assessment parameters and plots, conjunction remediation decision support, and present and future challenges. This briefing represents the NASA portion of the course.

conjunction assessment↗
NASA NTRS2017

Collision Avoidance "Short Course" Part III: CA Role in Changing Space Flight Environment

Satellite conjunction assessment is perhaps the fastest-growing area in space situational awareness and protection, with military, civil, and commercial satellite owner operators embracing more and more sophisticated processes to avoid the avoidable namely collisions between high-value space assets and orbital debris. NASA and CNES have collaborated to offer an introductory short course on all the major aspects of the conjunction assessment problem. This half-day course will cover satellite conjunction dynamics and theory, JSpOC conjunction data products, major risk assessment parameters and plots, conjunction remediation decision support, and present and future challenges. This briefing represents the NASA portion of the course.

conjunction assessment↗
NASA NTRS2018

Collision Avoidance "Short Course" Part III: CA in Changing Space Flight Environment

Satellite conjunction assessment is perhaps the fastest-growing area in space situational awareness and protection, with military, civil, and commercial satellite owner/operators embracing more and more sophisticated processes to "avoid the avoidable" namely collisions between high-value space assets and orbital debris. NASA and CNES have collaborated to offer an introductory short course on all the major aspects of the conjunction assessment problem. This half-day course will cover satellite conjunction dynamics and theory, JSpOC conjunction data products, major risk assessment parameters and plots, conjunction remediation decision support, and present and future challenges. This briefing represents the NASA portion of the course.

Newman, Lauri↗
NASA NTRS2019

Collision Avoidance "Short Course" Part III: CA in Changing Space Flight Environment

Satellite conjunction assessment is perhaps the fastest-growing area in space situational awareness and protection, with military, civil, and commercial satellite owner/operators embracing more and more sophisticated processes to "avoid the avoidable"—namely collisions between high-value space assets and orbital debris. NASA and CNES have collaborated to offer an introductory short course on all the major aspects of the conjunction assessment problem. This half-day course will cover satellite conjunction dynamics and theory, JSpOC conjunction data products, major risk assessment parameters and plots, conjunction remediation decision support, and present and future challenges. This briefing represents the NASA portion of the course.

avoidance↗
NASA NTRS2011

Current and Future Impact Risks from Small Debris to Operational Satellites

The collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 signaled the potential onset of the collision cascade effect, commonly known as the "Kessler Syndrome", in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region. Recent numerical simulations have shown that the 10 cm and larger debris population in LEO will continue to increase even with a good implementation of the commonly-adopted mitigation measures. This increase is driven by collisions involving large and massive intacts, i.e., rocket bodies and spacecraft. Therefore, active debris removal (ADR) of large and massive intacts with high collision probabilities has been argued as a direct and effective means to remediate the environment in LEO. The major risk for operational satellites in the environment, however, comes from impacts with debris just above the threshold of the protection shields. In general, these are debris in the millimeter to centimeter size regime. Although impacts by these objects are insufficient to lead to catastrophic breakup of the entire vehicle, the damage is certainly severe enough to cause critical failure of the key instruments or the entire payload. The focus of this paper is to estimate the impact risks from 5 mm and 1 cm debris to active payloads in LEO (1) in the current environment and (2) in the future environment based on different projection scenarios, including ADR. The goal of the study is to quantify the benefits of ADR in reducing debris impact risks to operational satellites.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
NASA NTRS2024

A Survey of Modeling Activities by NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office

NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) develops and maintains a number of modeling tools to analyze and simulate the orbital debris environment. One of the most important products produced by the NASA ODPO is the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM). This model can be used by satellite designers and operators to design missions for better protection against the debris environment. The ODPO is currently working on the next generation, designated ORDEM 4.0. ORDEM 4.0 will include many known features from previous models, such as the ability to input a spacecraft orbit and time and the ability to compute the flux as a function of debris size, impact speed, impact direction, and debris material densities, as well as uncertainty information on the flux. A new addition will be a parameterized debris shape model based on laboratory hypervelocity impact tests, including DebriSat. ORDEM is primarily based on dedicated debris measurements, such as by the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR), NASA’s Goldstone radar, and observations of geosynchronous orbits (GEO) using the Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (ES-MCAT). In addition to ORDEM, the ODPO also maintains other models, such as the LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model for studies of long-term evolution of Earth’s debris environment, with the ability to study various mitigation and remediation strategies. Another model, the Satellite Breakup Risk Assessment Model (SBRAM), is used to analyze how satellite breakups may affect critical space missions (such as the ISS) on short notice. In addition to these models, the ODPO maintains other secondary models used to model satellite explosions and collisions, analyze radar, optical, and in situ data, and to model such things as solar activity and orbit evolution. In this presentation, a survey of these models will be presented, showing how the different models are used together to create a comprehensive picture of Earth’s debris environment.

Mark Matney↗
NASA NTRS2024

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris

Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work, referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current analysis contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Jericho Locke↗