Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Risk detection”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Building Intelligence with Layered Defense Using Security-Constrained Optimization and Security Risk Detection (BUILD-SOS): A Probabilistic Approach

In this project, we employ a layered protection strategy incorporating advanced optimization and detection techniques using a probabilistic approach. The probabilistic approach is not only applied when detecting cyber attacks, but also incorporated in control strategies, which greatly increases the attacking difficulties. Hackers need to understand both probabilistic detection algorithms and uncertainty modeling methods in control in order to execute any effective attacks. The end-to-end solutions enable us to provide Building Intelligence with Layered Defense using Security-Constrained Optimization and Security Risk Detection (BUILD-SOS).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detecting Risk and Anomalies in Airplane Dynamics Through Entropic Analysis of Time Series Data

Despite recent efforts to move away from traditional threshold exceedance detection methods for aircraft state monitoring, modern aircraft still rely on safety thresholds to communicate to pilots the identification of an anomaly in the aircraft when a threshold is surpassed. Current anomaly detection methods mainly depend on uninterpretable machine learning models to learn complex patterns and relationships contained in the time series data of aircraft. Although these methods are capable of identifying known anomalies, their deficiency in interpretability presents a challenge when translating them to different aircraft. To overcome this deficiency, entropic analysis of aircraft dynamics seeks to characterize the complexity, or lack thereof, of the aircraft dynamics prior to the development of a risk scenario. This complexity characterization provides a more straightforward summary of state changes in the dynamics of flight variables. To build a foundation for entropic analysis, we analyzed the complexity of unstable approaches, an anomalous event present in many of today’s aviation accidents. The analysis revealed a statistically significant difference in the complexity distribution of flight variables under a stable approach versus an unstable approach. These differences in complexity were especially notable minutes before an approach was identified as unstable. Moreover, the multiscale entropic analysis revealed the presence of signal complexity at multiple time scales across multiple time windows before landing. By capturing state changes and corrections in the aircraft dynamics using entropy, advanced, yet still interpretable, sensor systems based on entropic frameworks from this study can be constructed in the future using classical machine learning approaches.

Risk detection↗
NASA NTRS1995

Quality Audit in the Fastener Industry

Both the financial and quality communities rely on audits to verify customers records. The financial community is highly structured around three categories of risk, INHERENT RISK, CONTROL RISK, and DETECTION RISK. Combined, the product of these three categories constitute the AUDIT RISK. The financial community establishes CONTROL RISK based in large part on a systems level understanding of the process flow. This system level understanding is best expressed in a flowchart. The quality community may be able to adopt this structure and thereby reduce cost while maintaining and enhancing quality. The quality community should attempt to flowchart the systems level quality process before beginning substantive testing. This theory needs to be applied in several trial cases to prove or disprove this hypothesis

Reagan, John R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Capturing Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High‑Risk Instability During Approach

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗
NASA NTRS2011

Deployment of an Advanced Electrocardiographic Analysis (A-ECG) to Detect Cardiovascular Risk in Career Firefighters

INTRODUCTION Sudden cardiac death is the leading cause of line of duty death among firefighters, accounting for approximately 45% of fatalities annually. Firefighters perform strenuous muscular work while wearing heavy, encapsulating personal protective equipment in high ambient temperatures, under chaotic and emotionally stressful conditions. These factors can precipitate sudden cardiac events like myocardial infarction, serious dysrhythmias, or cerebrovascular accidents in firefighters with underlying cardiovascular disease. Screening for cardiovascular risk factors is recommended but not always followed in this population. PHASER is a project charged with identifying and prioritizing risk factors in emergency responders. We have deployed an advanced ECG (A-ECG) system developed at NASA for improved sensitivity and specificity in the detection of cardiac risk. METHODS Forty-four professional firefighters were recruited to perform comprehensive baseline assessments including tests of aerobic performance and laboratory tests for fasting lipid profiles and glucose. Heart rate and conventional 12-lead ECG were obtained at rest and during incremental treadmill exercise testing (XT). In addition, a 5-min resting 12-lead A-ECG was obtained in a subset of firefighters (n=18) and transmitted over a secure networked system to a physician collaborator at NASA for advanced-ECG analysis. This A-ECG system has been proven, using myocardial perfusion and other imaging, to accurately identify a number of cardiac pathologies including coronary artery disease (CAD), left ventricular hypertrophy, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, non-ischemic cardiomyopathy, and ischemic cardiomyopathy. RESULTS Subjects mean (SD) age was 43 (8) years, weight 91 (13) kg, and BMI of 28 (3) kg/square meter. Maximum oxygen uptake (VO2max) was 39 (9) ml/kg/min. This compares with the 45th %ile in healthy reference values and a recommended standard of 42 ml/kg/min for firefighters. The metabolic threshold (VO2Theta) above which lactate accumulates was 23 (8) ml/kg/min. The chronotropic index, a measure of cardiovascular strain during XT was 35 (8) /L compared with reference values for men of 40 /L. Total cholesterol, LDL-C and HDL-C were 202 (34),126 (29), and 55 (15) mg/dl, respectively. Fifty-one percent of subjects had .3 cardiovascular risk factors, 2 subjects had resting hypertension (BP.140/90), and 23 had pre-hypertension (.120/80 but <140/90). Seven had exaggerated exercise induced hypertension but only one had ST depression on XT ECG, at least one positive A-ECG score for CAD, and documented CAD based on cardiology referral. While all other subjects, including those with fewer risk factors, higher aerobic fitness, and normal exercise ECGs, were classified as healthy by A-ECG, there was no trend for association between risk factors and any of 20 A-ECG parameters in the grouped data. CONCLUSIONS A-ECG screening correctly identified the individual with CAD although there was no trend for A-ECG parameters to distinguish those with elevated BP or multiple risk factors but normal XT ECG. We have demonstrated that a new technology, advanced-ECG, can be introduced for remote firefighter risk assessment. This simple, time and cost-effective approach to risk identification that can be acquired remotely and transmitted securely can detect individuals potentially at risk for line-of-duty death. Additional research is needed to further document its value.

Dolezal, B. A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Deployment of an Advanced Electrocardiographic Analysis (A-ECG) to Detect Cardiovascular Risk in Career Firefighters

INTRODUCTION: Sudden cardiac death is the leading cause of line of duty death among firefighters, accounting for approximately 45% of fatalities annually. Firefighters perform strenuous muscular work while wearing heavy, encapsulating personal protective equipment in high ambient temperatures, under chaotic and emotionally stressful conditions. These factors can precipitate sudden cardiac events like myocardial infarction, serious dysrhythmias, or cerebrovascular accidents in firefighters with underlying cardiovascular disease. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to deploy and then evaluate the contribution of resting advanced ECG (A-ECG) in addition to other screening tools (family history, lipid profiles, and cardiopulmonary exercise tests, XT) in assessment of an individual fs cardiac risk profile. METHODS: Forty-four career firefighters were recruited to perform comprehensive baseline assessments including tests of aerobic performance, fasting lipids and glucose. Five-min resting 12-lead A-ECGs were obtained in a subset of firefighters (n=21) and transmitted over a secure networked system to a NASA physician collaborator. Using myocardial perfusion and other imaging as the gold standard, A-ECG scoring has been proven useful in accurately identifying a number of cardiac pathologies including coronary artery disease (CAD), left ventricular hypertrophy, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, and non-ischemic and ischemic cardiomyopathy. RESULTS: Subjects f mean (SD) age was 43 (8) years, weight 91 (13) kg, and BMI 28 (3) kg/m2. Fifty-one percent of subjects had .3 cardiovascular risk factors. One subject had ST depression on XT ECG, at least one positive A-ECG score for CAD, and documented CAD based on cardiology referral. While all other subjects, including those with fewer risk factors, higher aerobic fitness, and normal exercise ECGs, were classified as healthy by A-ECG, there was no trend for association between risk factors and any of 20 A-ECG parameters in the grouped data.

Dolezal, B. A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Failure detection system risk reduction assessment

A process includes determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.

Aguilar, Robert B.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predictive analytics to direct clinical attention to complex patients with elevated suicide risk: enhancement of the Veterans Health Administration REACH VET model

Suicide is a major public health concern, particularly among Veterans. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employs the Recovery Engagement and Coordination for Health–Veterans Enhanced Treatment (REACH VET) model to prioritise high-risk patients for targeted clinical attention. REACH VET 1.0 (RV 1.0) was developed on 2008–2011 data. To reflect changes in clinical practice and populations, VHA updated it to REACH VET 2.0 (RV 2.0). This study describes its development and validation. RV 2.0 used longitudinal data from 7,248,170 VHA patients (4,967 suicide deaths) in 2018–2019, with 650 time-varying demographic, clinical and area-level predictors derived from a 2-year lookback (2016–2019). An ensemble of Elastic-Net logistic regression models was trained on 2018 data and evaluated monthly at the population level in 2019, focusing on the top 0.1% intervention risk tier. Analyses assessed model discrimination, suicide detection, risk concentration, subgroup consistency (sex, age and race/ethnicity) and performance relative to RV 1.0 using the same percentile-based risk strata. RV 2.0 outperformed RV 1.0 across all risk strata, with better discrimination (C-statistic 0.76 vs 0.69) and consistent performance across demographic subgroups. Within the top 0.1% of predicted risk, RV 2.0 identified more deaths, higher suicide rates and greater mortality risk concentration both when averaged across the 12 monthly 2019 test sets (5.6 vs 3.6; 83.6 vs 53.7 per 100,000 person-years; 21.0 vs 14.1) and when annualised for 2019 (67 vs 43; 2.7% vs 1.7%; 1,003 vs 644 per 100,000 person-years; 26.7 vs 17.1). RV 2.0 improves suicide risk stratification among Veterans, demonstrating better performance and consistent prediction across subgroups and highlighting the need for regular model updates and evaluation.

Peluso, Alina [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗
NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters II: Enhancing a Statistical Flood Risk Model to Continue Improving Early Warning Systems and Public Safety in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flooding events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of technological advancements and applied science are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters II project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, the project improved the original statistical flood risk model, FLuME (Flood Learning Model Environment), programmed by the first DEVELOP term. The enhancements incorporated an additional six years of precipitation and soil moisture data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), modeled using Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager. These Earth observations were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the US Geological Survey. The resultant flood risk model FLASH (Flood Learning Environment and Severity Assessment Hub) was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The addition of an advanced deep learning framework known as long short-term memory improved the model’s ability to capture relationships between variables. To assess the effectiveness of the new model, FLASH produced a model efficiency metric of 0.99, a significant improvement over the 0.85 value produced by the previous model. The project assisted the OEM in pursuing the integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a threat matrix capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Disasters↗
NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters II: Enhancing a Statistical Flood Risk Model to Continue Improving Early Warning Systems and Public Safety in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flooding events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of technological advancements and applied science are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters II project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, the project improved the original statistical flood risk model, FLuME (Flood Learning Model Environment), programmed by the first DEVELOP term The enhancements incorporated an additional six years of precipitation and soil moisture data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), modeled using Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission TRMM Microwave Imager. These Earth observations were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the US Geological Survey. The resultant flood risk model FLASH (Flood Learning Environment and Severity Assessment Hub) was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The addition of an advanced deep learning framework known as long short-term memory improved the model’s ability to capture relationships between variables. To assess the effectiveness of the new model, FLASH produced a model efficiency metric of 0.99, a significant improvement over the 0.85 value produced by the previous model. The project assisted the OEM in pursuing the integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a threat matrix capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Disasters↗
DOE OSTI2022

MVP-CTL Fellowship for Suicide Intervention (CRADA Final Report)

Research conducted with Crisis Text Line (CTL) served as an important stepping stone in the group’s ongoing work of developing natural language processing (NLP) methodologies to discover indicators of suicide factors in the U.S. veteran population. With rising cases of suicide, detecting risk factors among veterans is of growing concern. Socio-economic factors are often under-reported along structured medical variables, and extracting information through NLP methods may improve the sensitivity of suicide prediction models. The research explored through the CTL collaboration provided insights on suicide crisis detection and de-escalation, experience in applying scalable data analysis on real world datasets, contributions to study designs for detecting rare-event and produced transferable methods applicable to the domain of veteran suicide mitigation. Tools developed during this research directly benefits ongoing work on the Million Veteran Project (MVP) collaboration with the Department of Veteran Affairs (VA).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Capturing Complex Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High-Risk Adverse Events During Flight

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗
NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters II - Building a Real-Time Predictive Flood Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the uses of applied remote sensing analyses are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters III project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems in Ellicott City, Maryland. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, this term built on the predictive capability of the long-short term memory (LSTM) model created by the second term of this DEVELOP project to create a Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM). Enhancements to the model included the integration of both real-time and predicted weather products from the National Weather Service to increase predictive capacity. These weather products were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM as well as real-time radar products. The resultant flood risk model was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The model, upgraded to predict stage height up to 8 hours in advance, was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface. The project demonstrated the potential for integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing real-time decision-making.

Erika Munshi↗
NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters III: Building a Real-Time Statistical Flood Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the uses of applied remote sensing analyses are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters III project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems in Ellicott City, Maryland. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, this term built on the predictive capability of the long-short term memory (LSTM) model created by the second term of this DEVELOP project to create a Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM). Enhancements to the model included the integration of both real-time and predicted weather products from the National Weather Service to increase predictive capacity. These weather products were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM as well as real-time radar products. The resultant flood risk model was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The model, upgraded to predict stage height up to 8 hours in advance, was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface. The project demonstrated the potential for integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing real-time decision-making.

Erika Munshi↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Building a Real-Time Flood Prediction Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of applied remote sensing analyses is increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP National Program partnered with the local government of Howard County, Maryland, to investigate the use of machine learning for advanced flood risk detection, and to test the feasibility of integrating this approach into the county’s flood early warning system. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the project developed a statistical model capable of hindcasting the two severe flash flood events that devastated Ellicott City and transitioned to a ‘Long Short-Term Memory’ based sequence-to-sequence deep learning model with 8-hour forecast capability. The team combined data inputs from public sources including river and precipitation gauges, NASA and NOAA Earth observations, and numerical weather model products using scripts written in the Google Colaboratory Python scripting environment. In addition to designing the deep learning architecture, the team trained and tested the model, and evaluated its performance using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. The final product, the Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM) predicts stage height for the Hudson Branch gauge in Ellicott City using data products available in near real-time, including the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model’s accumulated precipitation forecasts supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the U.S. Geological Survey. STREAM was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface capable of triggering the alarms that initiate emergency response protocols up to 8 hours in advance of a predicted severe flood event. The project demonstrated the potential for the integration of open data and Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing near real-time decision making.

NASA DEVELOP↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Building a Real-Time Predictive Flood Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of applied remote sensing analyses is increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP National Program partnered with the Howard County government in Maryland to investigate the use of machine learning for advanced flood risk detection, and to test the feasibility of integrating this approach into the county’s flood early warning system. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the project developed a prediction model capable of hindcasting the two severe flash flood events that devastated Ellicott City, and transitioned to an Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based sequence-to-sequence deep learning model with 8-hour forecast capability. The team combined data inputs from public sources including river and precipitation gauges, NASA and NOAA Earth observations, and numerical weather model products using scripts written in the Google Colaboratory Python scripting environment. In addition to designing the deep learning architecture, the team trained and tested the model, and evaluated its performance using the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The final product, called the Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM), predicts stage height for the Hudson Branch gauge in Ellicott City using data products available in near real-time, including the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model’s accumulated precipitation forecasts supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the U.S. Geological Survey. STREAM was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface capable of triggering the alarms that initiate the OEM’s emergency response protocols up to 8 hours in advance of a predicted severe flood event. The project demonstrated the potential for the integration of open data and Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Ryan Hammock↗