Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Risk detection”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

Building Intelligence with Layered Defense Using Security-Constrained Optimization and Security Risk Detection (BUILD-SOS): A Probabilistic Approach

In this project, we employ a layered protection strategy incorporating advanced optimization and detection techniques using a probabilistic approach. The probabilistic approach is not only applied when detecting cyber attacks, but also incorporated in control strategies, which greatly increases the attacking difficulties. Hackers need to understand both probabilistic detection algorithms and uncertainty modeling methods in control in order to execute any effective attacks. The end-to-end solutions enable us to provide Building Intelligence with Layered Defense using Security-Constrained Optimization and Security Risk Detection (BUILD-SOS).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Predictive analytics to direct clinical attention to complex patients with elevated suicide risk: enhancement of the Veterans Health Administration REACH VET model

Suicide is a major public health concern, particularly among Veterans. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employs the Recovery Engagement and Coordination for Health–Veterans Enhanced Treatment (REACH VET) model to prioritise high-risk patients for targeted clinical attention. REACH VET 1.0 (RV 1.0) was developed on 2008–2011 data. To reflect changes in clinical practice and populations, VHA updated it to REACH VET 2.0 (RV 2.0). This study describes its development and validation. RV 2.0 used longitudinal data from 7,248,170 VHA patients (4,967 suicide deaths) in 2018–2019, with 650 time-varying demographic, clinical and area-level predictors derived from a 2-year lookback (2016–2019). An ensemble of Elastic-Net logistic regression models was trained on 2018 data and evaluated monthly at the population level in 2019, focusing on the top 0.1% intervention risk tier. Analyses assessed model discrimination, suicide detection, risk concentration, subgroup consistency (sex, age and race/ethnicity) and performance relative to RV 1.0 using the same percentile-based risk strata. RV 2.0 outperformed RV 1.0 across all risk strata, with better discrimination (C-statistic 0.76 vs 0.69) and consistent performance across demographic subgroups. Within the top 0.1% of predicted risk, RV 2.0 identified more deaths, higher suicide rates and greater mortality risk concentration both when averaged across the 12 monthly 2019 test sets (5.6 vs 3.6; 83.6 vs 53.7 per 100,000 person-years; 21.0 vs 14.1) and when annualised for 2019 (67 vs 43; 2.7% vs 1.7%; 1,003 vs 644 per 100,000 person-years; 26.7 vs 17.1). RV 2.0 improves suicide risk stratification among Veterans, demonstrating better performance and consistent prediction across subgroups and highlighting the need for regular model updates and evaluation.

Peluso, Alina [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

MVP-CTL Fellowship for Suicide Intervention (CRADA Final Report)

Research conducted with Crisis Text Line (CTL) served as an important stepping stone in the group’s ongoing work of developing natural language processing (NLP) methodologies to discover indicators of suicide factors in the U.S. veteran population. With rising cases of suicide, detecting risk factors among veterans is of growing concern. Socio-economic factors are often under-reported along structured medical variables, and extracting information through NLP methods may improve the sensitivity of suicide prediction models. The research explored through the CTL collaboration provided insights on suicide crisis detection and de-escalation, experience in applying scalable data analysis on real world datasets, contributions to study designs for detecting rare-event and produced transferable methods applicable to the domain of veteran suicide mitigation. Tools developed during this research directly benefits ongoing work on the Million Veteran Project (MVP) collaboration with the Department of Veteran Affairs (VA).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making

West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m–km, days–weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

System and methods for automated detection, reasoning and recommendations for resilient cyber systems

A method for securing an IT (information technology) system using a set of methods for knowledge extraction, event detection, risk estimation and explanation for ranking cyber-alerts which includes a method to explain the relationship (or an attack pathway) from an entity (user or host) and an event context to another entity (a high-value resource) and an event context (attack or service failure).

Choudhury, Sutanay↗

A Cybersecurity Testbed for Smart Buildings

Smart buildings are equipped with a plethora of cyber-physical systems, such as Internet of Things (IoT) devices and building automation systems. These devices, especially in commercial buildings, use legacy communications and hardware that were not designed with cybersecurity in mind. With increasing cyber threats in recent years, smart buildings have become an increasing target for attacks, but not enough published data are available from these incidents to study or replicate the scenarios to defend buildings. As part of the U.S. Department of Energy-funded project focusing on developing the Building Intelligence with Layered Defense Using Security-Constrained Optimization and Security Risk Detection (BUILD-SOS) platform, we developed a cybersecurity test bed for smart buildings. This test bed includes a building simulation tool, virtual devices, emulated operational technology networks, and remote hardware-in-the-loop. Using this test bed, we performed different cyberattacks on the smart building model and collected both physical building data, to understand the impacts on the building, and network data, to aid in separating mechanical faults from cyberattacks during the detection. This test bed is a significant tool in protecting smart buildings from cyberattacks because it can aid in both cybersecurity analysis and the evaluation of other cyberattack detection tools by testing the tools in a secure environment without impacting the building operations.

cyber-physical systems↗

A Cybersecurity Testbed for Smart Buildings

Smart buildings are equipped with a plethora of cyber-physical systems, such as Internet of Things (IoT) devices and building automation systems. These devices, especially in commercial buildings, use legacy communications and hardware that were not designed with cybersecurity in mind. With increasing cyber threats in recent years, smart buildings have become an increasing target for attacks, but not enough published data are available from these incidents to study or replicate the scenarios to defend buildings. As part of the U.S. Department of Energy-funded project focusing on developing the Building Intelligence with Layered Defense Using Security-Constrained Optimization and Security Risk Detection (BUILD-SOS) platform, we developed a cybersecurity test bed for smart buildings. This test bed includes a building simulation tool, virtual devices, emulated operational technology networks, and remote hardware-in-the-loop. Using this test bed, we performed different cyberattacks on the smart building model and collected both physical building data, to understand the impacts on the building, and network data, to aid in separating mechanical faults from cyberattacks during the detection. This test bed is a significant tool in protecting smart buildings from cyberattacks because they can aid in both cybersecurity analysis and the evaluation of cyberattack detection tools by testing the tools in a secure environment without impacting the building operations.

alfalfa↗

A Probabilistic Reasoner Based on Bayes Risk for Damage Detection in Structural Systems

Structural health monitoring (SHM) systems are used to inform operation of structural systems subject to loads and environments that may affect their integrity. SHM systems rely on continuous monitoring of the structure to determine its health state. These systems are often coupled with a model of the deployed structure to determine the consequences of changes in the system by forecasting the response to future states. These models, which may be thought of as digital twins, need to be updated to reflect the latest state of the structural system. This work makes use of an uncertainty-aware machine learning model that enforces distance preservation of the original input space to determine deviations from the training data input space distributions. This workflow enables domain shift detection to determine whether damage is present in the structure. The uncertainty metrics generated by this network are then used in a Bayes risk framework to design an optimal damage detector given cost and risk considerations. The approach is demonstrated on a computational example with simulated damage.

Najera-Flores, David [ATA Engineering, Inc.]↗

Hydrogen Equipment Enclosure Risk Reduction through Earlier Detection of Component Failures

Hydrogen component reliability and the hazard associated with failure rates is a critical area of research for the successful implementation and growth of hydrogen technology across the globe. The research team has partnered to quantify system risk reduction through earlier detection of hydrogen component failures. A model of hydrogen dispersion in a hydrogen equipment enclosure has been developed utilizing experimentally quantified hydrogen component leak rates as inputs. This model provides insight into the impact of hydrogen safety sensors and ventilation on the flammable mass within a hydrogen equipment enclosure. This model also demonstrates the change in safety sensor response time due to detector placement under various leak scenarios. The team looks to improve overall hydrogen system safety through an improved understanding of hydrogen component reliability and risk mitigation methods. This collaboration fits under the work program of IEA Hydrogen Task 43 Subtask E Hydrogen System Safety.

CFD↗

Detection of Head and Neck Cancer Based on Longitudinal Changes in Serum Protein Abundance

Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) is significantly represented in the military population with substantial impact on military operations. Two-thirds of new HNSCC cases are first diagnosed at advanced stage III or IV with lymph node metastases. Thus, there is an urgent need of biomarkers for early detection and risk stratification. Archived serum samples from the Department of Defense Serum Repository provide a unique resource for longitudinal studies of HNSCC in the military and the identification of early detection biomarkers. Methods: We identified 175 patients diagnosed with HNSCC with 175 matched healthy controls and retrieved a total of 978 serum samples drawn at the time of diagnosis, 2 and 4 years prior to diagnosis, and 2 years after diagnosis. Following immunoaffinity depletion, serum samples were analyzed by targeted proteomics assays for multiplexed quantification of a panel of 146 candidate protein biomarkers from the curated literature. Results: We derived a 13-protein signature that distinguishes case versus controls based on longitudinal changes in serum protein concentration. The abundances of each of the 13 proteins remain constant over time in control subjects. The area under the curve for the derived random forest classifier was 0.90. Conclusions: This 13-protein classifier is highly promising for detection of HNSCC prior to overt symptoms. Impact: Use of longitudinal samples has significant potential to identify biomarkers for detection and risk stratification.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Deep Cyber-Physical Situational Awareness for Energy Systems: A Secure Foundation for Next-Generation Energy Management

This document provides the final report for the CYPRES project. The purpose is (1) to highlight and summarize its major accomplishments and (2) to provide guidance on how its outcomes have informed and can inform important additional research and technology transfer. The goal of CYPRES was the research, development, and demonstration of a security-oriented next generation cyber-physical EMS for electric power systems that detects malicious and abnormal events through the fusion of cyber and physical data. To achieve this, the CYPRES project team researched, developed, and built a prototype of the solution, referred to as the CYPRES EMS. The CYPRES EMS is a proof-of-concept cyber-physical platform that demonstrates the management of the energy system, communications, security, and cyber-physical grid modeling and analytics. As part of the capabilities of the CYPRES EMS, the team designed and developed a suite of power system applications for monitoring, risk analyses, detection, and control that are inherently cyberaware. At its core, the project aimed to research, develop, and demonstrate a security-oriented next-generation cyber-physical Energy Management System (EMS) capable of detecting malicious and abnormal events through the innovative fusion of cyber and physical data. This approach represents a fundamental shift from traditional EMS, reimagining how critical infrastructure can be protected through unified cyber-aware and physics-aware secure data flow pipelines. The project’s cornerstone deliverable, the CYPRES EMS, serves as a proof-of-concept cyber-physical platform that revolutionizes the management of energy systems, communications, security, and cyber-physical grid modeling and analytics. This prototype implements a comprehensive suite of power system applications for monitoring, risk analyses, detection, and control, all designed with inherent cyber awareness. The system’s architecture extends from end-devices in the field through to control center applications, establishing a secure and resilient control framework that addresses the challenges posed by diverse devices of unknown trustworthiness connecting to modern power systems. Through this innovative approach to deep cyber-physical situational awareness, the CYPRES project not only advances the state-of-the-art in energy infrastructure protection but also establishes a new paradigm for how EMS can be designed, deployed, and operated in an increasingly complex threat landscape. The findings and developments from this project provide crucial insights for stakeholders across the energy sector, offering a blueprint for enhancing the reliability and resilience of our nation’s critical energy infrastructure in the face of evolving cyber threats.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Leveraging artificial intelligence and advanced food processing techniques for enhanced food safety, quality, and security: a comprehensive review

Artificial intelligence is emerging as a transformative force in addressing the multifaceted challenges of food safety, food quality, and food security. This review synthesizes advancements in AI-driven technologies, such as machine learning, deep learning, natural language processing, and computer vision, and their applications across the food supply chain, based on a comprehensive analysis of literature published from 1990 to 2024. AI enhances food safety through real-time contamination detection, predictive risk modeling, and compliance monitoring, reducing public health risks. It improves food quality by automating defect detection, optimizing shelf-life predictions, and ensuring consistency in taste, texture, and appearance. Furthermore, AI addresses food security by enabling resource-efficient agriculture, yield forecasting, and supply chain optimization to ensure the availability and accessibility of nutritious food resources. This review also highlights the integration of AI with advanced food processing techniques such as high-pressure processing, ultraviolet treatment, pulsed electric fields, cold plasma, and irradiation, which ensure microbial safety, extend shelf life, and enhance product quality. Additionally, the integration of AI with emerging technologies such as the Internet of Things, blockchain, and AI-powered sensors enables proactive risk management, predictive analytics, and automated quality control. By examining these innovations' potential to enhance transparency, efficiency, and decision-making within food systems, this review identifies current research gaps and proposes strategies to address barriers such as data limitations, model generalizability, and ethical concerns. These insights underscore the critical role of AI in advancing safer, higher-quality, and more secure food systems, guiding future research and fostering sustainable food systems that benefit public health and consumer trust.

AI↗

NREL Hydrogen Sensor Testing Laboratory

Relevance: Detection is recognized as a critical element for hydrogen facility safety design and supports risk mitigation. Detection methodologies will support validation of H2 behavior research. Hydrogen point sensors play a critical role for safety and process monitoring, but other methodologies can be developed. Approach: NREL Sensor Laboratory tests and verifies sensor performance for manufacturers, developers, end-users, regulatory agencies and SDOs/CDOs NREL deployment activity supports regulatory requirement verification, hydrogen behavior models, and method development for use by stakeholders. Accomplishments and Progress: NREL's R&D accomplishments have supported developers, industry, and SDOs by providing sensor performance and deployment expertise not otherwise available. Development of alternative detection strategies for hydrogen applications have been initiated. HyWAM and advanced detection methodologies deployments at H2@Scale Facilities are being implemented. Collaborations: Collaboration with government laboratories, universities, private organizations and regulatory agencies has leveraged the NREL Sensor Laboratory's success in advancing hydrogen safety sensors and process control. Proposed Future Work: NREL will support hydrogen deployment by the proper implementation of hydrogen sensors and advanced detection strategies. NREL will continue to support science-based codes and standards. This effort will be guided by the needs of the hydrogen community.

codes and standards↗

Transmission risk of Oropouche fever across the Americas

Abstract Background Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential, which can result in significant population and economic impacts. Oropouche fever, caused by Oropouche virus (OROV), is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported in Central and South America. The epidemic potential and areas of likely OROV spread remain unexplored, limiting capacities to improve epidemiological surveillance. Methods To better understand the capacity for spread of OROV, we developed spatial epidemiology models using human outbreaks as OROV transmission-locality data, coupled with high-resolution satellite-derived vegetation phenology. Data were integrated using hypervolume modeling to infer likely areas of OROV transmission and emergence across the Americas. Results Models based on one-support vector machine hypervolumes consistently predicted risk areas for OROV transmission across the tropics of Latin America despite the inclusion of different parameters such as different study areas and environmental predictors. Models estimate that up to 5 million people are at risk of exposure to OROV. Nevertheless, the limited epidemiological data available generates uncertainty in projections. For example, some outbreaks have occurred under climatic conditions outside those where most transmission events occur. The distribution models also revealed that landscape variation, expressed as vegetation loss, is linked to OROV outbreaks. Conclusions Hotspots of OROV transmission risk were detected along the tropics of South America. Vegetation loss might be a driver of Oropouche fever emergence. Modeling based on hypervolumes in spatial epidemiology might be considered an exploratory tool for analyzing data-limited emerging infectious diseases for which little understanding exists on their sylvatic cycles. OROV transmission risk maps can be used to improve surveillance, investigate OROV ecology and epidemiology, and inform early detection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A deep learning-based direct forecasting of CO 2 plume migration

Accurate and timely forecasts of CO 2 plume evolution in geological reservoirs are crucial for CO 2 migration detection, leakage risk assessment, and operation decision support. Conventional forecasting usually adopts a two-step strategy, first calibrating reservoir model parameters against observations using iterative inverse modeling (or history matching) and then applying the calibrated model for predictions. This method impedes real-time forecasts due to the heavy computational demand in inverse modeling and may suffer from poor prediction accuracy because of the limited observation data. In this work, we propose a deep learning-based latent space mapping framework to forecast CO 2 plume migration directly by avoiding the inverse modeling. We first use the convolutional autoencoder to map the high-dimensional complex plume extents onto low-dimensional latent space. Next, we use neural networks to learn the relationship between the observation variables and the prediction latent variables. And then for given observation data, we infer the prediction values directly. This one-step direct forecasting is computationally efficient which requires a few number of parallelizable reservoir simulations and it can provide accurate predictions with limited observations by learning the observation-prediction relationship in the reduced dimension. Therefore, our proposed method enables an in-time forecast of dynamic CO 2 plume distributions. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of our method in predicting the CO 2 plume migration using four metrics such as plume area, centroid movement distance, and plume spreading in the primary and secondary directions. And the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of plume migration under diverse geological complexities are also accurately quantified.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

National Cancer Institute Think-Tank Meeting Report on Proteomic Cartography and Biomarkers at the Single-Cell Level: Interrogation of Premalignant Lesions

A Think-Tank Meeting was convened by the National Cancer Institute (NCI) to solicit experts’ opinion on the development and application of multi-omic single-cell analyses, and especially single-cell proteomics, to improve the development of a new generation of biomarkers for cancer risk, early detection, diagnosis, prognosis as well as to discuss the discovery of new targets for prevention and therapy. It is anticipated that such markers and targets will be based on cellular, subcellular, molecular and functional aberrations within the lesion and within individual cells. Additionally, single-cell proteomic data will be essential for the establishment of new tools that with searchable and scalable features that include spatial and temporal cartographies of premalignant and malignant lesions. Challenges and potential solutions that were discussed included: • The best way/s to analyze single-cells from fresh and preserved tissue • Detection and analysis of secreted molecules and from single cells, especially from a tissue slice • Detection of new, previously undocumented cell type/s in the premalignant and early stage cancer tissue microenvironment • Multi-omic integration of data to support and inform proteomic measurements • Subcellular organelles – identifying abnormal structure, function, distribution and location within individual premalignant and malignant cells • How to improve the dynamic range of single-cell proteomic measurements for discovery of differentially expressed proteins and their post translational modifications (PTM) • The depth of coverage measured concurrently using single-cell techniques • Quantitation - absolute or semiquantitative? • Single methodology or multiplexed combinations? • Application of analytical methods for identification of biologically significant subsets • Data visualization of N-dimensional datasets • How to construct intercellular signaling networks in individual cells within premalignant tumor microenvironments (TME) • Associations between intrinsic cellular processes and extrinsic stimuli • How to predict cellular responses to stress inducing stimuli • Identification of new markers for prediction of progression from precursor, benign and localized lesions to invasive cancer, based on spatial and temporal changes within individual cells • Identification of new targets for immunoprevention or immunotherapy – identification of neoantigens and surfactome of individual cells within a lesion

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cell degradation quantification—a performance metric-based approach

A safe and reliable battery operation needs effective diagnostic tools. A quantitative failure analysis (FA) to enable cell qualification and quantify its effectiveness for reliable and safe operation of rechargeable Li batteries (RLB) is shown here. The method can identify and quantify potential failure based on the state of charge (SOC) under any operating conditions. A precise and accurate electrochemical analytic diagnosis (eCAD) of 14 rechargeable Li || NMC622 cells of the same build are used as an example. The FA by eCAD can quantitatively decipher good, bad and ugly cells in cycle aging. The cell qualification is based on thermodynamic SOC, not experimental conditions. The method provides a quantitative failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to reveal diverse “dead Li” formation that affects the reversibility of the Li anode and charge retention in the cell. This cell qualification method highlights the potential to improve cell quality for safe operation, with strong implications for early fault detection, FA, risk mitigation, state estimation and life prediction for reliable and safe RLB operations

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗