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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Physics–Informed Neural Networks of the Saint–Venant Equations for Downscaling a Large–Scale River Model

Large-scale river models are being refined over coastal regions to improve the scientific understanding of coastal processes, hazards and responses to climate change. However, coarse mesh resolutions and approximations in physical representations of tidal rivers limit the performance of such models at resolving the complex flow dynamics near the river-ocean interface, resulting in inaccurate simulations of flood inundation. In this research, we propose a machine learning (ML) framework based on the state-of-the-art physics-informed neural network (PINN) to simulate the downscaled flow at the subgrid scale. First, we demonstrate that PINN is able to assimilate observations of various types and solve the one-dimensional (1-D) Saint-Venant equations (SVE) directly. We perform the flow simulations over a floodplain and along an open channel in several synthetic case studies. The PINN performance is evaluated against analytical solutions and numerical models. Our results indicate that the PINN solutions of water depth have satisfactory accuracy with limited observations assimilated. In the case of flood wave propagation induced by storm surge and tide, a new neural network architecture is proposed based on Fourier feature embeddings that seamlessly encodes the periodic tidal boundary condition in the PINN's formulation. Furthermore, we show that the PINN-based downscaling can produce more reasonable subgrid solutions of the along-channel water depth by assimilating observational data. The PINN solution outperforms the simple linear interpolation in resolving the topography and dynamic flow regimes at the subgrid scale. This study provides a promising path towards improving emulation capabilities in large-scale models to characterize fine-scale coastal processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Null Space Monte Carlo Evaluation of the Plateau to River Model

The Plateau to River Groundwater Model (P2R Model) is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1-1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model provides a computational framework to simulate the F&T of contaminants in groundwater associated with the 200-PO-1, 200-UP-1, 200-BP-5, and 200-ZP-1 Groundwater Operable Units (OUs) in the Hanford Site Central Plateau. In addition, the model includes adjacent areas and facilities (e.g., the State Approved Land Disposal Site). Intended and anticipated uses of the model include calculating water levels, hydraulic gradients, and groundwater flows throughout the model domain (encompassing the 200 West and 200 East Areas) for use in subsequent F&T calculations for contaminants of concern and developing scale-appropriate, telescopic-mesh refinement models for detailed evaluation of areas within the model domain where required. The overall objective of the modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed remedial action decisions based on descriptions of current and expected future contaminant concentrations in groundwater at decision points within the OU boundaries. The objective for the model development phase is to create a common modeling platform that can be used for investigations of the Central Plateau groundwater OUs and areas downgradient toward the Columbia River. The P2R Model calibration to historical data observed at the Hanford Site is documented in CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3. The purpose of this environmental calculation is to describe a null space Monte Carlo (NSMC) evaluation was conducted with the historic calibration of the P2R model. Use of numerical groundwater models is always accompanied with uncertainty in the results produced by a model because models are approximations of reality. Thus, by definition, lack the detail to fully represent observed behavior. Use of numerical techniques, such as a NSMC analysis, can help in identifying and quantifying the potential uncertainties associated with a numerical model such as the P2R Model. Use of the NSMC approach results in 100 groundwater flow models that are variants of the calibrated P2R Model. These variant models can be used to evaluate uncertainty in model predictions made by the calibrated P2R Model for other analyses. A secondary purpose of the environmental calculation is to establish these variant models for use with other applications.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Using Data-Driven Prediction of Downstream 1D River Flow to Overcome the Challenges of Hydrologic River Modeling

Methods for downstream river flow prediction can be categorized into physics-based and empirical approaches. Although based on well-studied physical relationships, physics-based models rely on numerous hydrologic variables characteristic of the specific river system that can be costly to acquire. Moreover, simulation is often computationally intensive. Conversely, empirical models require less information about the system being modeled and can capture a system’s interactions based on a smaller set of observed data. This article introduces two empirical methods to predict downstream hydraulic variables based on observed stream data: a linear programming (LP) model, and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We apply both empirical models within the Colorado River system to a site located on the Green River, downstream of the Yampa River confluence and Flaming Gorge Dam, and compare it to the physics-based model Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) currently used by federal agencies. Results show that both proposed models significantly outperform the SSARR model. Moreover, the CNN model outperforms the LP model for hourly predictions whereas both perform similarly for daily predictions. Although less accurate than the CNN model at finer temporal resolution, the LP model is ideal for linear water scheduling tools.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Systematic Evaluation of Atmospheric Forcing, Surface Datasets, and Mesh Effects on Kilometer-Scale Land Surface and River Modeling

Earth system models are advancing toward kilometer-scale resolution to capture local climate impacts and extremes. High-resolution land and river modeling depends on multiple factors, including mesh, surface datasets, and atmospheric forcing, but their relative effects at kilometer scales remain unquantified. We evaluated five Energy Exascale Earth System Model land and river configurations over the Mid-Atlantic region using two mesh (1/8° structured versus variable-resolution unstructured mesh), two surface datasets (default versus newly developed), and three atmospheric forcings (NLDAS2, MSWX, GSWP). Evaluation against satellite, reanalysis, and in situ benchmarks across water, energy, and carbon cycles quantifies how these factors affect model performance. Forcing selection produces the largest bias reductions (12-99% across variables), followed by surface datasets (7-75%) and mesh (up to 21%). Forcing effects vary by variable, with MSWX reducing biases for snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, albedo, temperature, and gross primary productivity, GSWP for snow cover and runoff, and NLDAS for soil moisture and streamflow. The use of newly developed surface datasets improves gross primary productivity (58% bias reduction) and evapotranspiration but increase soil moisture and albedo biases due to current modeling limitations. Variable-resolution unstructured mesh improves the simulation of small-basin streamflow through better capturing drainage networks, though mesh minimally affects other land variables. These findings provide important guidance for high-resolution modeling development and actionable science.

Land and River modeling↗

Mapping the Concentration Distribution of Contaminant Plumes to the Computational Grid of the Plateau to River Model (Ver. 8.3)

This environmental calculation file (ECF) outlines the process conducted for defining the initial condition groundwater plumes for select contaminants of interest (COIs) to the Plateau River model version 8.3 (P2Rv8.3) domain (CP-57037, Model Package Report: Plateau to River Groundwater Model Version 8.3). Various data sources were combined into a single set of files defining plume conditions at time 1/1/2018. The resulting files are intended for use as inputs for transport modeling to support forecasts of the Central Plateau contaminant plume fate and transport.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Plateau to River Model Predictive Simulations for All Ensemble Realizations to Support Modeling Work in Fiscal Year 2025

The purpose of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to document predictions of flow and hydraulic head on the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site using the Plateau-to-River (P2R) Model (CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau-to-River Model: Version 9.1). This calculation documents the simulation of the groundwater for the parent model domain of the P2R Model as a basis for use in other applications of the P2R Model. This application is unique from the standpoint that it will simulate all ensemble member models of the P2R Model whereas other applications may only utilize specific ensemble members. These simulations provide results that can be used in the process of selecting an appropriate subset of ensemble members for other applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hanford Composite Analysis Special Studies FY2025 - Groundwater Flow Simulation for use in a Comparison of Simulated Concentrations in the Saturated Zone Estimated by the Plateau-to-River Model Versions 8.3 and 9.1

In order to meet the requirements of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in DOE O 435.1, Radioactive Waste Management, a composite analysis (CA) must be completed for the Central Plateau at the Hanford Site. The CA requires estimates of fate and transport of radionuclides in the groundwater from multiple sources within the modeling domain. This Environmental Calculation File (ECF) details the application of the Plateau-to-River (P2R) Model (CP-57037, Rev. 3, Model Package Report for the P2R Model: Version 9.1) to predict the flow of groundwater on the Central Plateau for the 10,000-year simulation to support a special analysis associated with the Hanford Site CA. The simulated flow field will support the simulation of fate and transport of contaminants for comparison to the results obtained as part of the CA to evaluate impact of the updated version of the P2R Model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Appendix E: Research papers. Manual versus digital LANDSAT analysis for modeling river flooding

The comparative value of manual versus digital image analysis for determining flood boundaries is being examined in a study of the use of LANDSAT data for modeling flooding of the Black River, in northern New York. The work is an extension of an earlier study in which Black River flooding was assessed through visually interpreted, multi-date LANDSAT band 7 images. Based on the results to date, it appears that neither color-additive viewing nor digital analysis of LANDSAT data provide improvement in accuracy over visual analysis of band 7 images, for delineating the boundaries of flood-affected areas.

Philipson, W. R.↗

Manual versus digital Landsat analysis for modeling river flooding

The comparative value of manual versus digital image analysis for determining flood boundaries is being examined in a study of the use of Landsat data for modeling flooding of the Black River, in northern New York. The work is an extension of an earlier study in which Black River flooding was assessed through visually interpreted, multi-date Landsat band 7 images. Based on the results to date, it appears that neither color-additive viewing nor digital analysis of Landsat data provide improvement in accuracy over visual analysis of band 7 images, for delineating the boundaries of flood-affected areas.

Philipson, W. R.↗

pyflowline: a mesh-independent river network generator for hydrologic models

River networks are crucial in hydrologic and Earth system models. Accurately representing river networks in spatially distributed hydrologic models requires considering the model's spatial discretization and computational mesh. However, current methods of generating river networks for hydrologic models do not typically support unstructured meshes. Unstructured meshes offer numerous advantages over traditional, structured meshes. To overcome this limitation, we developed PyFlowline, a Python package that generates mesh-independent river networks. With PyFlowline, hydrologic modelers can generate conceptual river networks and their topological relationships for both structured and unstructured meshes.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Model Package Report: Plateau to River Groundwater Model Version 8.3

This model package report documents the groundwater flow component of the Plateau to River Groundwater Model (P2R Model), which is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. The objective of this report is to describe the modeling objectives, conceptualization, model implementation, calibration, sensitivity, uncertainty, configuration control, limitations, and future model enhancements of the groundwater flow component of the P2R Model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Evaluating power grid model hydropower feasibility with a river operations model

Production cost models (PCMs) simulate dispatch of generators across a large power grid and are used widely by planners to study the reliability of electricity supply. As energy systems transition away from the thermoelectric technologies that have traditionally balanced electricity supply and demand, hydropower and its representation in PCMs is of increasing importance. A limitation of PCMs applied to continental power grids with diverse generation portfolios is that hydropower generation is simulated without full consideration of complex river dynamics, leading to possible misrepresentation of grid flexibility and performance. In addition, data used in PCMs may reflect outdated operating policies. In this paper we propose a hydropower generation feasibility test for PCMs. The approach uses a detailed hydropower model to determine whether the hourly hydropower schedule from a PCM with simplified monthly parameterization can be attained after accounting for realistic river dynamics and operating policies, such as spill requirements and general water movement and balance through a cascade reservoir system. We perform this hydropower generation test for the ‘Big 10’ hydropower system on the Columbia River (part of the Western Interconnect of the United States), revealing 9% overestimation of available hydropower generation in a PCM solution in an average hydrologic year. Our evaluation provides insight on the cost and opportunities for better representing hydropower in PCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Underlying Fundamentals of Kalman Filtering for River Network Modeling

The grand challenge of producing hydrometeorological estimates every time and everywhere has motivated the fusion of sparse observations with dense numerical models, with a particular interest on discharge in river modeling. Ensemble methods are largely preferred as they enable the estimation of error properties, but at the expense of computational load and generally with underestimations. These imperfect stochastic estimates motivate the use of correction methods, that is, error localization and inflation, although the physical justifications for their optimality are limited. The purpose of this study is to use one of the simplest forms of data assimilation when applied to river modeling and reveal the underlying mechanisms impacting its performance. Our framework based on assimilating daily averaged in situ discharge measurements to correct daily averaged runoff was tested over a 4-yr case study of two rivers in Texas. Results show that under optimal conditions of inflation and localization, discharge simulations are consistently improved such that the mean values of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency are enhanced from211.32 to 0.55 at observed gauges and from212.24 to21.10 at validation gauges. Yet, parameters controlling the inflation and the localization have a large impact on the performance. Further investigations of these sensitivities showed that optimal inflation occurs when compensating exactly for discrepancies in the magnitude of errors while optimal localization matches the distance traveled during one assimilation window. These results may be applicable to more advanced data assimilation methods as well as for larger applications motivated by upcoming river-observing satellite missions, such as NASA’s Surface Water and Ocean Topography mission.

Streamflow↗

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Atmospheric Rivers: A Modeling Perspective

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a crucial role in the poleward transport of water vapor, and the AR-associated precipitation is a critical component of global water supplies, making it critical that we understand how ARs may change in the future. To approach this issue, integrations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model ModelE version 2.1 (GISSE2.1) are employed. Multiple configurations of the model simulating different climates are analyzed: (1) the last-glacial maximum; (2) present day; (3) the end of the 21st century. The thermodynamic and dynamic components of changes to AR frequency are analyzed using a decomposition method. This method utilizes differences in distinct AR seasonal climatology frequencies derived from various vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) thresholds to resolve AR frequency into its components. Global mean state changes in poleward AR frequency for different climates are dominated by precipitable water vapor (PWV) changes. A set of idealized cold and warm climates in which present day sea surface temperatures are uniformly changed are considered for a targeted analysis of the south Pacific Ocean basin. For this analysis, frequency and distribution of AR events in the model runs are analyzed by comparing them to changes in the jet stream as well as the Eulerian storm tracks and low-level baroclinicity. Latitudinal shifts in the ARs in the south Pacific Ocean basin using our integrations are not as tightly coupled to these two storm-related climatological metrics in the midlatitudes but fare better on the poleward side of the storm tracks.

Atmospheric rivers↗

Investigating coastal backwater effects and flooding in the coastal zone using a global river transport model on an unstructured mesh

Abstract. Coastal backwater effects are caused by the downstream water level increase as a result of elevated sea level, high river discharge and their compounding influence. Such effects have crucial impacts on floods in densely populated regions but have not been well represented in large-scale river models used in Earth system models (ESMs), partly due to model mesh deficiency and oversimplifications of river hydrodynamics. Using two mid-Atlantic river basins as a testbed, we perform the first attempt to simulate the backwater effects comprehensively over a coastal region using the MOSART river transport model under an ESM framework, i.e., Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) configured on a regionally refined unstructured mesh, with a focus on understanding the backwater drivers and their long-term variations. By including sea level variations at the river downstream boundary, the model performance in capturing backwaters is greatly improved. We also propose a new flood event selection scheme to facilitate the decomposition of backwater drivers into different components. Our results show that while storm surge is a key driver, the influence of extreme discharge cannot be neglected, particularly when the river drains to a narrow river-like estuary. Compound flooding, while not necessarily increasing the flood peaks, exacerbates the flood risk by extending the duration of multiple coastal and fluvial processes. Furthermore, our simulations and analysis highlight the increasing strength of backwater effects due to sea level rise and more frequent storm surge during 1990–2019. Thus, backwaters need to be properly represented in ESMs to improve the predictive understanding of coastal flooding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PFLOTRAN modeling data and scripts associated with “Refining the Hydrogeologic Framework of a Large River Corridor Model Using Waterborne Transient Electromagnetics”

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the publication “Refining the Hydrogeologic Framework of a Large River Corridor Model Using Waterborne Transient Electromagnetics” submitted to Water Resources Research (Terry et al. 2025). The data package contains the groundwater modeling dataset from PFLOTRAN software. It includes the python script for mesh generation, boundary condition setting, PFLOTRAN input deck formation and postprocessing. It couples groundwater flow and species transport for Hanford Reach river corridor and pipelines the model generation and processing. This model can be used to easily generate the model and analysis for Hanford site. It can also be adjusted to other hydrologic area with ease. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. The data package consists of 6 folders: (1) “data” contains all necessary data as input and intermediate data for processing; (2) “mesh” contains all mesh related files to generate mesh in Hanford Reach river corridor; (3) “model_run” contains the generated script for PFLOTRAN modeling; (4) “notebooks” contains all the Python script to generate the model; (5) “output” contains all the output from the computation; (6) “postprocessing” contains the Python script to generate scientific figure for manuscript. All files are .csv (comma-separated values), .h5 (HDF5 format), .in (input files), .ipynb (Jupyter notebooks), .p (Python pickle), .png (images), .PNG (images), .py (Python scripts), .pyc (Python bytecode), .r (R scripts), .sh (shell scripts), .txt (text files), .vtu (3D mesh/visualization format), .xz (compressed archive), or .zip (compressed archive).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hourly Stream Heights – A Short-term Deep Learning Prediction Model

River flooding can have a detrimental impact on a community by causing loss of life, loss or damage to property, and damage to infrastructure. Having the capability to forecast flooding events can prevent the loss of life and mitigate damage to property. A programmatic, data-driven approach using deep learning to forecast a stream’s gauge height every 6 hours has been developed by NASA’s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) and is currently in operation. Based on our end user engagement and feedback, this medium-term product has been successfully adopted by several National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers (RFC). SPoRT is currently researching and developing a short-term hourly deep learning model which will be useful in forecasting flash flood events.

Michael Antia↗