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At least 19 records

CLEAP Project: OR-SAGE Analysis for MT, UT, and CO States

The OR-SAGE tool is designed to use industry-accepted practices in screening sites and then employ the proper array of data sources through the considerable computational capabilities of GIS technology available at ORNL. The tool was developed to screen the potential for NPP siting on a national and regional basis. However, because of the tool granularity, it is often focused specifically on the immediate area around user sites of interest. If data center siting parameters can be added to OR-SAGE, the ability to evaluate data center siting on a localized scale will be beneficial.1 More than 60 data sets have been collected and processed by ORNL to develop exclusionary, avoidance, and suitability criteria for screening sites for a variety of power generation types, including nuclear power plants. Available site evaluation parameters include population density, slope, seismic activity, proximity to cooling-water sources, proximity to hazard facilities, avoidance of protected lands and floodplains, susceptibility to landslide hazards, and many others. All siting parameters should be considered as flags to inform siting decisions and should not be used to rule in or rule out any NPP site. Once data center siting parameters are identified, appropriate data sets will be collected and processed. The OR-SAGE process is very versatile. Essentially, OR-SAGE is a visual, relational database. The database partitions the contiguous United States, a total of 720 million hectares (~1.8 billion acres), into 100-m by 100-m (1 hectare or ~2.5 acre) cells. The database is tracking just under 700 million individual land cells. Successive suitability criterion is applied to each cell in the database. User-specified thresholds can be applied to each siting parameter data layer. In this manner, a variety of scenarios can be quickly and thoroughly evaluated. Data can be added and/or revised within OR-SAGE to address user interests. Siting security assessment capability is currently being added to OR-SAGE. Security is expected to be of concern at data centers whether it is collocated with a nuclear power generating technology or not. If data center is collocated with a nuclear power generating source, the security threat attractiveness level of both will likely increase. It will be of additional benefit if a potential data center site is also assessed for security vulnerability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Evaluate the Cumulative Effects of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse: Sensitivity Analysis and Validation of Key Parameters

To address the need for an approach to evaluate cumulative ecological impacts of wind energy development, particularly those on critical wildlife habitats and species, the authors developed a proof-of-concept, landscape-based, spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM) framework for populations of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Albany County, Wyoming, based on published and other available information on the life history of the species. This sage-grouse IBM estimates the spatial and temporal movements of sage-grouse based on modeled effects of habitat characteristics and developments on sage-grouse condition, survivorship, and reproduction. After completing the initial version of the model, we conducted a series of sensitivity analyses of key model parameters and validation of lek occurrences and spatial distributions to better understand performance of the model relative to observed values of important life history characteristics. The parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted as a series of one-factor-at-a-time tests in which the values of selected parameters were individually varied to evaluate the corresponding effects on model output. We examined the model’s response to changes in parameter values to gain insight into the overall robustness of the model, identify key driver parameters, and initiate qualitative validation. Five functions selected for sensitivity analyses were (1) the rate of change in body condition in relationship to habitat suitability index (HSI) of occupied habitat (condition change rate), (2) the effect of competition between individuals with overlapping home ranges expressed as a percentage reduction in HSI (competition factor), (3) value of condition at which survivorship probability is equal to zero (zero survivorship condition), (4) the relationship between female body condition and clutch size, and (5) the relationship between female body condition and nest success. We varied the parameter values to be tested for the sensitivity analysis around the original value used in the model (i.e., tested values were higher and lower than the model’s original value) to examine the effect of this variation on the predicted output of the model. Model outputs evaluated in the sensitivity analysis included (1) predicted age-class distribution (as measured by the percentage of immature individuals within the population); (2) predicted sex ratio; (3) predicted age-sex class distribution (percent of population in each of six age-sex classes, i.e., male and female juveniles, yearlings, and adults); (4) lifespan; (5) population size; and (6) spatial distribution. Of the five parameters analyzed, condition change rate, survivorship, clutch size, and nest success did not substantially affect any of the evaluated model outputs. For the predicted age-class distribution, the percentage of immature individuals predicted by the model for these four parameters ranged from 61.9% to 65.0%, which was reasonable with respect to the reference values of 51.4 to 57.8% in published studies. The ratio of females to males ranged from 1.09 to 1.14, which was comparable to the reference values of 1.2 to 3.0 presented in an existing study. The predicted mean lifespan ranged from 1.62 to 1.74 years, which appears to be reasonable with respect to the reference values of 0.9 to 1.1 years for sharp-tail grouse and greater prairie chickens presented by published studies. The predicted population size ranged from 1,877 to 3,140. This prediction would be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county. The predicted spatial distribution was not substantially affected by the parameter values examined. In our sensitivity analyses, the only tested parameter that had a noticeable effect on model output was competition factor. Over the range of values tested for this parameter, predicted population size exhibited the largest range (from 1,833 to 4,737) of all parameters tested. As the competition factor increased, the predicted population size decreased. This reflects the effect competition had on the number of individuals that could co occur in high-quality habitat patches. Despite this apparently significant effect, the range of values appears to be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Validating Greater Sage-Grouse Individual-based Model (IBM) Tool (Final Report)

The project focused on validating the previously developed Greater Sage-Grouse Individual-based Model (GrSG IBM; LaGory et al. 2012, 2021). The objective was to transform this predictive, spatially and temporally explicit model into a portable resource to assist siting/resource managers in proactively assessing the cumulative impacts of wind energy development on the greater sage-grouse. Utilizing a bottom-up, individual-based approach, the GrSG IBM accounts for landscape context and species behavior, aiming to reduce uncertainty in estimating development impacts and support ecologically mindful land-based wind energy development. The validation effort covered approximately 6,540 km 2 near the Seven Mile Hill Wind Project in Wyoming. The GrSG IBM tool, built on the NetLogo platform (Tisue and Wilensky 2004), was executed over a 50-year period, with the analysis focusing on years following a 10-year initialization phase. Key results demonstrated the tool’s biological soundness across five key biological metrics: non-chick age class distribution (older than 10 weeks), adult sex ratio, life expectancy, population size, and overall population growth. For instance, the tool estimated that 58.6% of the non-chick population was reproductively immature, while the reference ranges from 51.4% to 57.8% (Patterson 1952, Rogers 1964). Experts confirmed the tool’s estimate was within a reasonable range for the species. The tool estimated average life expectancy of 1.43 years, while the reference ranges from 0.9 years to 1.1 years (Ammann 1957, Hamerstrom 1949). Experts also supported the model’s life-expectancy estimate as ecologically sound for the species in the study area. In terms of population change, the model estimated an annual shift between a 0.6% decline and a 1.0% increase over 50 years. While the reference suggests 2.9% annual decline in range-wide populations (Cortes et al. 2023), that includes many at-risk populations in South Dakota and Washington, for example. Our study area—in the northeastern part of Carbon County and western-edge of Albany County, Wyoming—is one of the remaining greater sage-grouse habitats supporting some of the most stable populations. Experts confirmed that the range of the annual population change spanning from a 0.6% decline to a 1.0% increase estimated by the tool was reasonable for our study area for this reason and confirmed that aligned with population estimates from existing studies on the greater sage-grouse and wind energy development in the study area (LeBeau et al. 2017a, Smith et al. 2024). Furthermore, the project showed that temporally explicit biological metrics generated by the GrSG IBM tool can complement the USGS’ Prioritizing Restoration of Sagebrush Ecosystems Tool (PReSET; Duchardt et al. 2021) by incorporating habitat restoration strategies into seasonal habitat suitability models to visualize population responses over time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

2023 SAGE-Camp Report

The 7 th Summer Physics Camp for Young Women was successfully held in person in 2023 from June 5 th to 16 th at the New Mexico School for the Arts in Santa Fe, NM at Hilo Intermediate School in Hawaii. This year’s camp was dedicated to the topic of Energy Security and was made possible thanks to the strong collaboration of Los Alamos, Sandia and Hawaii teams and the logistical and financial support of Los Alamos and Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico Consortium, SAGE- Moore Foundation, LANL Foundation, ACS, IEE, APS four corners, N3B, Hawaii Museum of Science and Technology, New Mexico School for the Arts (NMSA) and Tech Source. The camp mobilized more than 120 volunteers who made the camp a success. The camp is free of charge to the students and included free lunch and snacks for the busy brains to have plenty of energy, also included all materials needed for the hands-on activities (like drone building, crystal structure, solar panels, wind turbine fabrication, soldering, coding etc) and also a stipend for students who attended for the full two weeks and for two educators and two student mentors in NM. The camp offered 32 high school students from New Mexico and 8 from Hawaii a unique opportunity to explore science topics and meet a broad range of role model professionals across STEM fields including astrophysics, cybersecurity, Energy fields, space science, engineering, biophysics, environmental science, robotics, computer science, nuclear engineering, radiological science, physics and chemistry. With nearly 120 volunteers who came mainly from Los Alamos National Laboratory (66%) and Sandia national laboratories (18%), two funded educators from NM, Dr. Weldon Beauchamp and Dr. Ellee Cook, and two educators from Hilo, Dr. Pascale Creek Pinner and LeAnn Ragasa, the camp was educationally sound and extremely varied. The collaboration with school educators is critical for the goal of this camp to not only impact students' lives but also improve STEM education in NM and Hawaii. The ultimate goal of the camp is to increase higher education aspirations of students, empower them to consider careers in STEM and learn more about the opportunities available to them in our local colleges and DOE National Laboratories. In addition, the camp also hired 2 past students as student mentors, Megan Odom and Elisea Jackson, who currently attend NMSA and were students at the camp in 2022 when it was virtual. The in-person camp which aims at empowering under-represented minorities in STEM in our community received more than 52 applications this year from all over NM and 8 applications from Hawaii. Our selection criteria are based on diversity, equity and inclusion, and students for whom the camp can be a life-changing opportunity are given a chance to attend the camp. During COVID, the camp was held virtually and gave the opportunity to students from remote areas in NM and Hawaii to attend from their homes. This year, fantastic families supported students everyday even when home was in remote areas in NM like Lea county, Sandoval county, Bernalillo or Mora county. The organizers hope next year they can offer a residential option for students from remote areas.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Ross Filter Diode Array Analysis for Red Sage

A Ross Filter Diode Array (RFDA) diagnostic was fielded on the Cygnus x-ray source during the final stages of the Red Sage campaign. This report briefly describes the motivation for the diagnostic, its construction and operating principles, and the raw data that it produces followed by an in-depth look at the procedures used to analyze this data. RFDA signals from eight Cygnus shots conducted after the conclusion of Nightshade C are analyzed and those results are discussed. Finally, recommendations are made to improve the diagnostic for future experiments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SAGE Intrusion Detection System: Sensitivity Analysis Guided Explainability for Machine Learning.

This report details the results of a three-fold investigation of sensitivity analysis (SA) for machine learning (ML) explainability (MLE): (1) the mathematical assessment of the fidelity of an explanation with respect to a learned ML model, (2) quantifying the trustworthiness of a prediction, and (3) the impact of MLE on the efficiency of end-users through multiple users studies. We focused on the cybersecurity domain as the data is inherently non-intuitive. As ML is being using in an increasing number of domains, including domains where being wrong can elicit high consequences, MLE has been proposed as a means of generating trust in a learned ML models by end users. However, little analysis has been performed to determine if the explanations accurately represent the target model and they themselves should be trusted beyond subjective inspection. Current state-of-the-art MLE techniques only provide a list of important features based on heuristic measures and/or make certain assumptions about the data and the model which are not representative of the real-world data and models. Further, most are designed without considering the usefulness by an end-user in a broader context. To address these issues, we present a notion of explanation fidelity based on Shapley values from cooperative game theory. We find that all of the investigated MLE explainability methods produce explanations that are incongruent with the ML model that is being explained. This is because they make critical assumptions about feature independence and linear feature interactions for computational reasons. We also find that in deployed, explanations are rarely used due to a variety of reason including that there are several other tools which are trusted more than the explanations and there is little incentive to use the explanations. In the cases when the explanations are used, we found that there is the danger that explanations persuade the end users to wrongly accept false positives and false negatives. However, ML model developers and maintainers find the explanations more useful to help ensure that the ML model does not have obvious biases. In light of these findings, we suggest a number of future directions including developing MLE methods that directly model non-linear model interactions and including design principles that take into account the usefulness of explanations to the end user. We also augment explanations with a set of trustworthiness measures that measure geometric aspects of the data to determine if the model output should be trusted.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Methods and system for siting advanced nuclear reactors and evaluating energy policy concerns

There is a growing sociopolitical desire to develop cleaner energy sources in the United States and maintain energy security. Regardless of politics, many coal-fired electric plants have already been shut down and many utilities are vowing to retire their current coal-fired assets within the next two decades. Replacement power assets require consideration of appropriate siting. A geographic information system (GIS)-based multicriteria decision analysis approach is useful to assist utility and energy companies, as well as policymakers, to evaluate potential areas for siting new plants in the contiguous United States. A GIS-based framework is simply a database of location information that allows for mapping, querying, modeling, and analyzing data based on location. The spatial output can be structured to be visual, allowing for easier analysis of location data. The need to site additional power assets, including renewable resources and clean power sources, such as nuclear, led to the development of the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion (OR-SAGE) tool discussed in this paper. The tool takes inputs such as population growth, water availability, environmental indicators, and tectonic and geological hazards to provide an in-depth visual analysis for siting options. Energy companies and other stakeholders can use OR-SAGE to procure feedback quickly and effectively on land suitability based on technology specific inputs. Policymakers can use OR-SAGE to analyze the impacts of future energy technology decisions, while balancing competing resource use. Overall, this paper discusses the recent use of OR-SAGE for these purposes and plans for future development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Spatial mapping of dissolved methane using an in situ sensor in Puget Sound

Release of methane, as gas bubbles or in the dissolved phase, from the seafloor has been observed in coastal waters (< 200 m) and deep ocean basins (> 1000 m). Methane dissolution within the water column affects the geochemistry of the surrounding water, leading to localized oxygen loss and potential escape to the atmosphere, particularly from shallower sites. Traditional methods for detecting and quantifying dissolved methane rely on collecting discrete water samples for ship- or land-based ex situ analysis and post processing. Here, we report on the use of a reduced response time, in situ methane sensor, the Sensor for Aqueous Gases in the Environment (SAGE), for detecting and quantifying dissolved methane concentrations in a wide range of seafloor environments. During a Fall 2022 research cruise on the R/V Thomas G. Thompson in Puget Sound, SAGE was integrated onto a towed conductivity/temperature/depth rosette and deep-sea camera system with live-stream 1 Hz telemetry and used to spatially map the concentration of methane approximately 1 m above the seafloor. The site had been previously identified as an active methane plume field characterized by gas bubbles, fluid venting, and a faulted seabed. The widespread background dissolved concentration of methane measured by SAGE was 83 nM, and a range of 78–670 nM was observed throughout the survey. The results highlight the capacity of SAGE to map the spatial and temporal variability of dissolved methane concentrations in situ and to identify and localize sites of variable methane emissions from the seafloor.

Padilla, Alexandra M. [Woods Hole Oceanographic In↗

High-throughput genetic engineering of nonmodel and undomesticated bacteria via iterative site-specific genome integration

Efficient genome engineering is critical to understand and use microbial functions. Despite recent development of tools such as CRISPR-Cas gene editing, efficient integration of exogenous DNA with well-characterized functions remains limited to model bacteria. Here, we describe serine recombinase–assisted genome engineering, or SAGE, an easy-to-use, highly efficient, and extensible technology that enables selection marker–free, site-specific genome integration of up to 10 DNA constructs, often with efficiency on par with or superior to replicating plasmids. SAGE uses no replicating plasmids and thus lacks the host range limitations of other genome engineering technologies. We demonstrate the value of SAGE by characterizing genome integration efficiency in five bacteria that span multiple taxonomy groups and biotechnology applications and by identifying more than 95 heterologous promoters in each host with consistent transcription across environmental and genetic contexts. We anticipate that SAGE will rapidly expand the number of industrial and environmental bacteria compatible with high-throughput genetics and synthetic biology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Expanding the genetic toolset: using serine recombinases to integrate riboregulatory elements into industrially relevant microbial chassis

To realize the full potential of biomanufacturing, the breadth of industrial microbes used to consume diverse feedstock and generate bioproducts needs to expand. As such, portable tools are required that can be used by multiple hosts for straightforward genomic manipulation and precise gene expression. Here, we demonstrate the co-utilization of two synthetic biology tools to achieve these goals: cis-repressors (CRs) and serine recombinase-assisted genome engineering (SAGE). CRs are small, noncoding RNAs that are placed upstream of the target gene to modulate bacterial translation rates at varying, discrete levels. SAGE uses site-specific serine recombinases to catalyze highly efficient, unidirectional insertion of DNA into the chromosome of diverse organisms. We used SAGE to integrate a suite of CRs into the industrially relevant hosts Pseudomonas putida, Corynebacterium glutamicum, and Cupriavidus necator. Using a fluorescent reporter as a readout of CR functionality, we found that CR performance across these backgrounds was similar—providing a range of translational repression up to 100-fold. Overall, these results demonstrate the high portability of CRs across bacterial genetic backgrounds, which ideally can be used in future microbial engineering efforts pertinent to biomanufacturing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Sap Velocity Data for Urban Trees in Chicago, Illinois (2024-2025)

This dataset contains uncorrected sap velocity measurements using the heat ratio method (HRM) collected using ICT International SFM1x sensors at five urban sites in Chicago, Illinois, as part of the DOE CROCUS project. The data includes continuous monitoring of sap velocity from various tree species, including Maples (Acer spp.): Sugar Maple (Acer saccharum), Silver Maple (Acer saccharinum), and Red Maple (Acer rubrum); Oaks (Quercus spp.): Swamp White Oak (Quercus bicolor); American Elm (Ulmus americana); Honey Locust (Gleditsia triacanthos); Cottonwood (Populus deltoides); and Tree of Heaven (Ailanthus altissima) across Chicago State University (CSU), Northeastern Illinois University (NEIU), Northwestern University (NU), University of Illinois Chicago (UIC), and West Woodlawn "Blacks in Green" (BIG). These include both street trees and those in urban park locations. Measurements were collected at 15-20 minute intervals, depending on the sensor, and transmitted via Long Range Wide Area Network (LoRaWAN) protocols. The wireless data was collected by Sage Network (https://sagecontinuum.org/) nodes. The dataset includes sensor ID, Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates, tree species (common and scientific names), tree identification number, diameter at breast height (DBH in cm), uncorrected sap velocity measurements (cm/hr) from both inner and outer probes, and Sage Node identifiers so the data can be mapped to related variables such as air quality and wind speed that were collected on the Sage nodes. All timestamps are in local Chicago time (CDT/CST). Quality control flags are provided using a 3-bit binary system indicating physical range violations (< -10 or > 60 cm/hr), step spikes (absolute difference > 36 cm/hr), and stuck sensor conditions (> 10 consecutive identical values). These are raw data, not corrected for wood anatomy or species-specific characteristics. Data is provided in comma separated (CSV) format. This dataset is part of a larger collection of CROCUS environmental monitoring data, including linked datasets from Air Quality Transmitter (AQT) sensors, Weather Transmitter (WXT) sensors, and Multi-Function Research LoRaWAN (MFR) Nodes. DOIs for the supporting data are provided as part of this data package.

Chicago↗

Edge at the Pier: EPCAPE Software-Defined Sensing Field Campaign Report

The Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) was aimed to enhance the understanding of cloud and aerosol properties in the region surrounding La Jolla, California. To address challenges in data collection and processing from various instruments, an edge computing device known as Waggle Sage Node (WSN) was deployed at the Ellen Browning Scripps Memorial Pier. WSN is a distributed-sensing platform designed to collect and analyze environmental data at the edge. Sage is a multi-agency-supported project that designs and builds a new kind of national-scale reusable cyberinfrastructure to enable artificial intelligence (AI) at the edge based on the Waggle platform. Sponsors include the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR), DOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), DOE Biological and Environmental Research (BER) through DOE Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP), Argonne Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD). Sage (https://sagecontinuum.org/) is funded as a National Science Foundation Mid-Scale Research Infrastructure (MSRI) project (https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1935984). This robust, multi-architecture edge computing platform facilitated environmental monitoring during the campaign. This report details the scientific objectives, deployment process, and key results of integrating Waggle into the EPCAPE field campaign.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-term drought promotes invasive species by reducing wildfire severity

Anthropogenic climate change has increased the frequency of drought, wildfire, and invasions of non-native species. Although high-severity fires linked to drought can inhibit recovery of native vegetation in forested ecosystems, it remains unclear how drought impacts the recovery of other plant communities following wildfire. We leveraged an existing rainfall manipulation experiment to test the hypothesis that reduced precipitation, fuel load, and fire severity convert plant community composition from native shrubs to invasive grasses in a Southern California coastal sage scrub system. We measured community composition before and after the 2020 Silverado wildfire in plots with three rainfall treatments. Drought reduced fuel load and vegetation cover, which reduced fire severity. Native shrubs had greater prefire cover in added water plots compared to reduced water plots. Native cover was lower and invasive cover was higher in postfire reduced water plots compared to postfire added and ambient water plots. Our results demonstrate the importance of fuel load on fire severity and plant community composition on an ecosystem scale. Management should focus on reducing fire frequency and removing invasive species to maintain the resilience of coastal sage scrub communities facing drought. In these communities, controlled burns are not recommended as they promote invasive plants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

South Asia Group for Energy-India

The South Asia Group for Energy (SAGE) is working with Grid India and the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) to determine the best methods to deploy more inverter-based resources (IBR) such as solar photovoltaic generators and utility-scale battery. To address grid strength and stability concerns, planners and operators are working with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) team, through SAGE, to identify potential solutions for strengthening the grid and fostering grid reliability.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗