Estimating sales and sales market share from sales rank data for consumer appliances
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Touzani, Samir↗
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Future private car stock in China: current growth pattern and effects of car sales restriction
Car stock projection is essential to evaluating the energy and environmental impacts of private cars in China. Since the private car ownership rate in China has not reached its saturation level, limited and outdated data used in previous studies has resulted in high uncertainties regarding the functions of car ownership and significantly reduced the robustness of the projection of private car stocks. In this work, we estimate China's current growth pattern of private car ownership by analyzing more than 6300 pairs of private car ownership and income data collected from various official statistics at the national, provincial, and city levels in the period of 1997-2017. The dataset covers a much wider per-capita disposable income range than national-level data alone and allows us to make satisfactory projections of private car stocks in China up to 2040. We project that the private car stock in China could reach 403 million in 2040, if the current growth pattern of car ownership continues. Significant discrepancies in private car ownership curves are observed for cities with and without car sales restrictions. Without car sales restrictions, we estimate that the private car stock would be even higher at 455 million by 2040, demonstrating the effectiveness of the current restriction policy in controlling car stocks in China. We further quantify the potential impacts of car sales restrictions on future car stock levels by implementing hypothetical national car sales caps. Results show that, although the private car stocks would still continue to grow before 2030, the stock levels would be stable at ~ 280 and ~ 350 million by 2040 for scenarios of 20 and 25 million sales caps, respectively. The impact of private car stock growth on energy consumption in China is also examined. Pump-to-wheels energy consumption of the private car fleet is projected to be 131, 147, 90, and 113 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2040 for scenarios of the current growth pattern, no sales restriction, the 20 million sales cap, and the 25 million sales cap, respectively. Analysis reveals that private car sales restriction and vehicle population growth control could be an effective strategy for energy consumption reduction (thus greenhouse gas emission mitigation) in China, although the development of the automotive industry may be restrained.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
Appraising into the Sun: Six-State Solar Home Paired-Sale Analysis
Although residential solar photovoltaic (PV) installations have proliferated, PV systems on some U.S. homes still receive no value during an appraisal because comparable home sales are lacking. To value residential PV, some previous studies have employed paired-sales appraisal methods to analyze small PV home samples in depth, while others have used statistical methods to analyze large samples. Our first-of-its-kind study connects the two approaches. It uses appraisal methods to evaluate sales price premiums for owned PV systems on single-unit detached houses that were also evaluated in a large statistical study. Independent appraisers evaluated 43 recent home sales pairs in six states: California, Oregon, Florida, Maryland, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. We compare these results with contributory-value estimates—based on income (using the PV Value® tool), gross cost, and net cost—as well as hedonic modeling results from the recent statistical study. The results provide strong, appraisal-based evidence of PV premiums in all states. More importantly, the results support the use of cost- and incomebased PV premium estimates when paired-sales analysis is impossible. PV premiums from the paired-sales analysis are most similar to net PV cost estimates. PV Value® income results generally track the appraised premiums, although conservatively. The appraised premiums are in agreement with the hedonic modeling results as well, which bolsters the suitability of both approaches for estimating PV home premiums. Therefore, these results will benefit valuation professionals and mortgage lenders who increasingly are encountering homes equipped with PV and need to understand the factors that can both contribute to and detract from market value.
solar, real estate, home, appraisal, pv, value↗
History v. Simulation: An Analysis of the Drivers of Alternative Energy Vehicle Sales
Simulations of the US light duty vehicle stock help policy makers, investors, and auto manufacturers make informed decisions to influence the future of the stock and its associated green house gas emissions. Such simulations require an underlying framework that captures the key elements of consumer purchasing decisions, which can be uncertain. This uncertainty in a simulation’s logic is usually convolved with uncertainty in the underlying assumptions about the futures of energy prices and technology innovation and availability. By comparing simulated alternative energy vehicle (AEV) sales to historical sales data, one can assess the simulation’s ability to capture the dynamics of consumer choice, independent of many of those underlying uncertainties, thereby determining the factors that most strongly impact sales. The market for diesel vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, and to a lesser extent plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and all-electric vehicles, has now matured sufficiently to make such a study possible. In this work, we measure the results of the Sandia ParaChoice model under a variety of input assumptions against historical sales data. Here, we observe that (1) the underlying simulation logic is sound, capturing key drivers of consumer choice, (2) AEV model availability has a significant impact on sales, and (3) AEV consumers are very likely aware of purchasing incentives and factoring those incentives into their purchasing decisions.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
How to design a zero-emissions vehicle mandate? Simulating impacts on sales, GHG emissions and cost-effectiveness using the AUtomaker-Consumer Model (AUM)
We report although numerous studies investigate the impacts of policy on zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) sales, few address the impacts of a ZEV sales mandate and its particular design features. We use the AUtomaker-consumer Model (AUM) to simulate varying designs of a ZEV mandate in Canada's light-duty vehicle sector, requiring 30% ZEV sales by 2030. Design features include: different penalties for non-compliance, different allocations of credits per ZEV type, and the allowance of banking credits across years. For each policy design, we consider impacts on ZEV adoption, GHG emissions, consumer surplus, automaker profits, and overall policy cost-effectiveness. Results demonstrate trade-offs among the policy designs. Generally, ZEV mandate designs that are more effective at increasing ZEV adoption and decreasing GHG emissions also induce larger reductions in consumer surplus and automaker profits. To achieve the ZEV sales goal, simulations show that a higher non-compliance penalty (CDN$ 10k per credit) is needed. ZEV adoption and GHG reductions are also improved by a “One credit per ZEV” scheme, rather than a “California-style” scheme that gives multiple credits per battery-electric vehicle. Further, allowing automakers to bank credits softens the policy impact on profit and increases automaker compliance in initial years. Across these different design combinations, we find that the most cost-effective design ($CDN/tonne mitigated, including consumer surplus and automaker profits impacts) utilizes a $10k non-compliance penalty and “One credit per ZEV” system that allows banking. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of various ZEV mandate design features, and the complex trade-offs involved among various policy goals.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Domestic Sales Mix of Plug-In Electric Vehicles by Trim Variant and Vehicle Characteristics
As plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) take up a larger share of the United States vehicle market, their variety increases as well. Since many electric vehicle manufacturers offer multiple PEV trim variants, the distribution of vehicle characteristics such as battery capacity, all-electric range, electricity consumption, and curb weight cannot be determined by sales data alone. Sales data and vehicle registration data were analyzed to quantify and map the trim variant distribution of PEV models from nine automakers. With this information, we quantify national sales-weighted characteristics of fourteen different models over ten years, including battery capacity, fuel economy, and vehicle weight. We find a positive correlation between share of all-wheel drive variants for Tesla vehicles and average annual snowfall, and general uniformity nationwide in other vehicle characteristics. The estimated trim variant distributions will be useful in informing decisions regarding materials recycling and EV impact on the energy grid, and this study found that the total installed battery capacity in PEV in the U.S. was 76 GWh through 2020.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Capturing the Sun: A Roadmap for Navigating Data-Access Challenges and Auto-Populating Solar Home Sales Listings
Capturing the Sun: A Roadmap for Navigating Data-Access Challenges and Auto-Populating Solar Home Sales Listings supports a vision of solar photovoltaic (PV) advocates and real estate advocates evolving together to make information about solar homes more accessible to home buyers and sellers and to simplify the process when these homes are resold. The Roadmap is based on a concept in the real estate industry known as automatic population of fields. Auto-population (also called auto-pop in the industry) is the technology that allows data aggregated by an outside industry to be matched automatically with home sale listings in a multiple listing service (MLS).
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
All Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales in India by 2030: Value proposition to Electric Utilities, Government, and Vehicle Owners
In India, there is growing interest among policymakers, planners, and regulators for aggressive electrification of passenger vehicles. For example, Piyush Goyal, the Minister of State for India’s Ministry of Coal, Power, New and Renewable Energy, announced an aspirational goal of converting all vehicle sales in India to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2030 (Economic Times, 2016). In 2012, India has already announced the National Mission on Electric Mobility (NMEM) sets a countrywide goal of deploying 6 to 7 million hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs) by 2020 (DHI, 2012). A major policy motivation for transport electrification is to reduce India’s oil import dependency. The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of full electrification of vehicle sales in India by 2030 on the key stakeholders such as BEV owners, electric utilities, and the government. Specifically, we attempt to answer the following questions: (a) How does the total vehicle ownership cost of BEVs compare with the conventional vehicles? (b) What is the additional load due BEV charging? (c) What is the impact on the power sector investments, costs, and utility revenue? (d) How can smart BEV charging help renewable energy grid integration? (e) What is the impact on the crude oil imports? (f) What is the impact on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions?
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
Cavern leaching at SPR associated with 2017 oil sales and exchanges
In 2017 small-scale drawdowns at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) supported oil sales for the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 and the 21st Century Cures Act of 2015 as well as exchanges supporting relief efforts for hurricane Harvey. These drawdowns may affect cavern stability and available drawdowns, thus is important to assess the leaching effects on the cavern shape. Cavern shape estimates from the SANSMIC solution mining code suggest the shapes of 28 caverns were altered in 2017 to varying degrees depending on the total volume of water injected, the initial cavern shape and the distance between the hanging string depth and the oil-brine interface depth. A flaring of the cavern floor occurred in 13 caverns, a geomechanically unfavorable outcome that may require operational changes to preserve cavern integrity. Of the three caverns with post-sale sonars, SANSMIC predictions compared favorably to two but underpredicted the third.
04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
Residential Photovoltaic Energy Systems in California: The Effect on Home Sales Prices
Relatively little research exists estimating the marginal impacts of photovoltaic (PV) energy systems on home sale prices. Using a large dataset of California homes that sold from 2000 through mid-2009, we find strong evidence, despite a variety of robustness checks, that existing homes with PV systems sold for a premium over comparable homes without PV systems, implying a near full return on investment. Premiums for new homes are found to be considerably lower than those for existing homes, implying, potentially, a tradeoff between price and sales velocity. The results have significant implications for homeowners, builders, appraisers, lenders, and policymakers.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Energy Savings Performance Contract Energy Sales Agreement Toolkit
FEMP developed the Energy Savings Performance Contracting Energy Sales Agreement (ESPC ESA) Toolkit to provide federal agency contracting officers and other acquisition team members with information that will facilitate the timely execution of ESPC ESA projects.
energy sales agreements↗
Leveraging Energy Sales Agreements (ESA) Under ESPC ENABLE and DOE's IDIQ Contract
There is an increasing interest in solar photovoltaics, battery energy storage systems, and geothermal heat pumps to help meet decarbonization and resilience goals. However, facility managers may not know that energy sales agreement (ESA) contracting can be an effective, efficient, and lower cost way to procure and install these projects. FEMP, national labs, and agency partners will discuss best practices and examples that attendees may be able to leverage at their own sites.
DOE FEMP↗
The dual-credit policy: Quantifying the policy impact on plug-in electric vehicle sales and industry profits in China
We report that the Passenger Cars Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation (dual-credit policy) was enacted by the Chinese government in 2017 to stimulate the fuel-efficient and electrification technologies in the China's passenger vehicle market. Here, this study summarizes the dual-credit policy and develops the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits Model to quantify the impacts of this policy on consumer choices and industry profits, where internal subsidies as decision variables are used to represent industry responses to the policy. Scenarios in 2016–2020 are simulated and discussed. Key findings from the model results include: (1) the Corporate Average Fuel Consumption rules alone may stimulate more plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales than the dual-credit policy; however, (2) the dual-credit policy could stimulate more battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in market, compared to other policy scenarios; (3) the industry could “lose” approximately $2122/vehicle by 2020 under the dual-credit policy; (4) battery electric sedans with a range greater than 250 km and plug-in hybrid SUVs could be popular under the dual-credit policy; (5) credit allocations for BEVs in the dual-credit policy can influence the PEV production; and (6) reduction of the fuel-efficient technology costs helps to minimize profit losses impacted by the policy.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Improving the effectiveness and equity of fuel economy regulations with sales adjustment factors
Larger vehicles, such as sports utility vehicles, consume more energy than cars. Their increasing popularity runs contrary to the goal of fuel economy regulations to reduce fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions and can be explained by consumer preference and lower regulation stringency, which is due to footprint, truck classification, and the omission of heterogenous lifetime vehicle distance traveled among vehicle classes. This study shows that, for both the US and China, large vehicles travel more, last longer, and are owned by higher income consumers. This means large vehicles and their high-income owners use more fuel and emit more pollutants than represented by current policy and thus raises both policy effectiveness and energy equity concerns. We propose and estimate Sales Adjustment Factors that weigh fuel economy standards based on vehicle lifetime usage and demonstrate the resultant significant improvements in the effectiveness and equity of fuel economy regulations.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Energy Savings Performance Contract Energy Sales Agreements
An energy savings performance contract energy sales agreement (ESPC ESA) is a project structure, similar to a power purchase agreement, that uses the multiyear ESPC authority to implement renewable energy projects (referred to as ESA energy conservation measures [ECMs]) on federal buildings or land. The ESA ECM is initially privately owned for tax-incentive purposes, and the federal agency purchases the electricity it produces. An ESPC ESA is one of the most cost-effective methods for implementing on-site distributed energy projects at civilian federal agency sites.
energy savings performance contract↗
Energy Savings Performance Contract Energy Sales Agreements
An energy savings performance contract energy sales agreement - referred to as an ESPC ESA or ESPC with an ESA - is a project structure that uses the multiyear ESPC authority to implement distributed energy projects on federal buildings or land. The distributed energy project implemented under an ESPC ESA is referred to as an ESA energy conservation measure, or ESA ECM.
ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Secretarial Determination for the Sale or Transfer of Uranium
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Uranium, transfers, sale, United States Enrichment↗