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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Atmospheric Variability Drives Anomalies in the Bering Sea Air–Sea Heat Exchange

Abstract High latitudes, including the Bering Sea, are experiencing unprecedented rates of change. Long-term Bering Sea warming trends have been identified, and marine heatwaves (MHWs), event-scale elevated sea surface temperature (SST) extremes, have also increased in frequency and longevity in recent years. Recent work has shown that variability in air–sea coupling plays a dominant role in driving Bering Sea upper-ocean thermal variability and that surface forcing has driven an increase in the occurrence of positive ocean temperature anomalies since 2010. In this work, we characterize the drivers of the anomalous surface air–sea heat fluxes in the Bering Sea over the period 2010–22 using ERA5 fields. We show that the surface turbulent heat flux dominates the net surface heat flux variability from September to April and is primarily a result of near-surface air temperature and specific humidity anomalies. The airmass anomalies that account for the majority of the turbulent heat flux variability are a function of wind direction, with southerly (northerly) wind advecting anomalously warm (cool), moist (dry) air over the Bering Sea, resulting in positive (negative) surface turbulent flux anomalies. During the remaining months of the year, anomalies in the surface radiative fluxes account for the majority of the net surface heat flux variability and are a result of anomalous cloud coverage, anomalous lower-tropospheric virtual temperature, and sea ice coverage variability. Our results indicate that atmospheric variability drives much of the Bering Sea upper-ocean temperature variability through the mediation of the surface heat fluxes during the analysis period. Significance Statement A long-term ocean warming trend and a recent increase in marine heatwaves in the Bering Sea have been identified. Previous work showed that anomalies in the exchange of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere were the primary driver of Bering Sea temperature variability, but the processes responsible for the heat exchange anomalies were unknown. In this work, we show that the atmosphere is the primary driver of anomalies in the Bering Sea air–sea heat exchange and therefore plays an important role in altering the thermal state of the Bering Sea. Our results highlight the importance of understanding more about how the ocean and the atmosphere interact at high latitudes and how this relationship will be affected by future climate change.

Hayden, Emily E. [a College of Earth, Ocean, and A↗
DOE OSTI2025

Air-sea interactions yielding rapid Beaufort Sea ice losses during the 2021 ONR THINICE Pilot Field Campaign

Seasonal sea ice coverage has declined in the Pacific Arctic region. Losses of the ice cover have modified the region’s surface heat and momentum fluxes providing weather systems more direct interaction with the upper ocean. For example, recent cyclones that have passed over these waters have initiated multiple air-sea interactions and have impacted mixed layer depth, wave properties, and sea ice mass budgets due to diabatic and/or advective processes. As a United States Office of Naval Research (ONR) Departmental Research initiative, one key component of the ONR THINICE program was to advance knowledge on Arctic cyclone coupling with the ocean surface, its ice cover, and understand how such coupling can lead to rapid ice loss. Leading up to the primary field campaign in August 2022, a pilot field campaign from 19 August to 13 September 2021 focused in Utqiagvik, Alaska and Longyearbyen, Svalbard was carried out. This period was marked by frequent Arctic cyclones, periods of strong low-level winds, and stints of extreme short-term Beaufort Sea ice area losses. Cyclones traversed these waters much more frequently than usual during this 26-day period, but did not exhibit extreme central pressures indicative of high intensity and impactful storms. Using ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis fields, CERES and AIRS surface flux retrievals, and in situ sensor data collected from ice-tethered profilers and ice mass balance buoys, we highlight air-sea-ice interactions in the Beaufort Sea during and between these cyclones leading up to extreme ice loss events. Our case study analysis is aimed at understanding how Arctic cyclones, including air-sea interactions prompted by their passage over the marginal ice zone, influence the end-of-summer ice conditions and ice loss events. This study provides an example where frequent, yet weak storms drive rather large marginal sea-scale losses albeit with heterogenous sea ice effects at local scales.

Ballinger, Thomas [International Arctic Research C↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of sea ice leads on sea salt aerosols and atmospheric chemistry in the Arctic

Abstract. The processes contributing to Arctic cold-season (November–April) sea salt aerosols (SSAs) remain uncertain. Observations from coastal Alaska suggest that emissions from open leads in sea ice, which are not included in climate models, may play a dominant role. Their Arctic-wide significance has not yet been quantified. Here, we create an emission parameterization of SSAs from leads by combining satellite data of lead area (the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observation System (AMSR-E) product) and a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to quantify pan-Arctic SSA emissions from leads during the cold season from 2002 to 2008 and to predict their impacts on atmospheric chemistry, evaluating the results of our simulated SSAs against in situ observations. The AMSR-E product detects large leads with certainty (> 3 km in size), and, hence, our study is limited to quantifying emissions from large leads. Lead emissions vary seasonally and interannually. Simulated total monthly SSA emissions increase by 1.1 %–1.8 % (≥60° N latitude) and 5.6 %–7.5 % (≥75° N) for the 2002–2008 cold seasons. SSA concentrations primarily increase at the location of leads, where standard model concentrations are low. GEOS-Chem overestimates SSA concentrations at Arctic sites compared to ground observations, even when lead emissions are not included, suggesting underestimation of SSA sinks and/or uncertainties in SSA emissions from blowing snow and the open ocean. Multi-year monthly mean surface bromine atom (Br) concentrations increase by 2.8 %–8.8 % due to SSAs from leads for the 2002–2008 cold seasons. Changes in ozone concentrations are negligible. While leads contribute < 10 % to Arctic-wide SSA emissions in the years 2002–2008, these emissions occur in regions of low background aerosol concentrations. Leads may increase in frequency under future climate change, which could increase SSA emissions from leads.

Emme, Erin J. (ORCID:0000000268406352)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Expanded Understanding of the Western Antarctic Peninsula Sea‐Ice Environment Through Local and Regional Observations at Palmer Station

Abstract The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) has been experiencing rapid regional warming since at least the 1950s, however, the impacts of this warming at the local scale are variable and nuanced. Previous studies that have linked sea‐ice variability to biogeochemical cycles and food web dynamics often combine local‐scale biogeochemical data with coarse‐resolution regional satellite sea‐ice data, which may not adequately capture local sea‐ice conditions. In this study, we analyzed local‐scale in situ sea‐ice observations collected as part of a 28‐year record (1992–2020) from the Palmer Long‐Term Ecological Research site at Anvers Island, mid‐WAP, in conjunction with isotopically‐derived sea‐ice meltwater (SIM) fractions and satellite‐derived sea‐ice motion and concentration, to quantify the variability and long‐term trends in local sea‐ice behavior. In situ sea ice observations at Palmer Station displayed higher variability than satellite observations and showed no significant declines over this time, despite region‐wide declines identified in prior studies. Higher spring SIM fractions were attributed to strong northward sea‐ice motion throughout the winter. Applying these local‐scale sea‐ice insights to similarly scaled stratification and chlorophyll‐ a measurements, we found that a longer‐lasting, more consistent sea‐ice pack led to greater water column stratification following the spring sea‐ice retreat. Greater sea‐ice persistence and stronger stratification led to larger peaks in chlorophyll‐ a , though sea‐ice metrics did not explain the positive temporal trends in either stratification strength or chlorophyll‐ a . Through this study, we identify how local sea‐ice observations and meltwater data can enhance satellite data to build an understanding of the intricate connections between ice, water column dynamics, and phytoplankton.

Goodell, E.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Crustal Deformation and Gravitational Effects From Dynamic Ocean Mass Redistribution Impact Projected Sea‐Level Change

As the climate warms, associated changes in ocean dynamics will redistribute sea‐water mass within the ocean, contributing to relative sea‐level change. This mass redistribution will cause additional sea‐level changes due to gravitational self‐attraction, deformation of the solid Earth, and shifts in the Earth's rotation axis (GRD), which are not incorporated in sea‐level projections. Using CMIP6 climate model output, we quantify relative sea‐level changes induced by GRD from ocean‐dynamic mass loading through 2100. These effects act to amplify projected ocean‐dynamic sea‐level patterns, causing sea‐level rise in coastal regions, particularly along wide continental shelves and at high latitudes. On average, the magnitude of such GRD‐induced sea‐level change is equivalent to ∼15% of the signal due to dynamic ocean mass redistribution. Although our results show substantial inter‐model spread, they reveal that GRD‐induced relative sea‐level changes from ocean mass redistribution represent a non‐negligible component of regional sea‐level change and should be considered in projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Relative Importance of Antarctic Sea Ice Loss within the Response to Greenhouse Warming

Abstract The response to Antarctic sea ice loss within a coupled modeling framework is examined in comparison to the response to Arctic sea ice loss and within the context of general greenhouse warming. Sea ice loss responses are found to be linear (particularly in response to Antarctic or global sea ice loss) with respect to the degree of imposed perturbation and additive when perturbations are applied in hemispheres separately and concurrently. Globally, and in the tropical Pacific in particular, Antarctic sea ice loss plays a relatively larger role than Arctic sea ice loss in both the atmosphere and the ocean, within the parameters of our experiments. The pattern of response to Antarctic sea ice loss is also found to more closely resemble that of greenhouse warming, again particularly in the tropics. An extension to multiparameter pattern scaling is developed to include a scaling factor for Antarctic change in addition to those for tropical warming and Arctic sea ice loss. The decomposition is applied to the modeled response to Antarctic sea ice loss to break it down into component partial responses that scale with Antarctic, tropical, and Arctic changes. This reveals the aspects of the response that are directly related to Antarctic change, such as an equatorward intensification of tropical precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, and those that are modified via the induced changes in the tropics and Arctic, such as Northern Hemisphere temperature change. With this, we hope to gain a deeper understanding of the role of each of these changes for the development of physical mechanisms of the response.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

A high-resolution pseudo-polygon discrete element model for regional sea ice

Here, this work presents a pseudo-polygon discrete element model for high-resolution sea ice simulations. A scale-invariant bonded particle contact model is proposed to model joints between sea ice floes based on the smeared fracture model and a lattice spring beam model, and the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion is implemented to represent the shearing failure mechanism of sea ice packings under complex loadings. All mechanical parameters of the bond model can be directly determined from laboratory tests. Validations of the proposed model are made by investigations of mechanical response and failure criteria of field sea ice sheets. Compared with the field observations of sea ice from satellite radar and in situ stress sensors, the proposed model is capable of reproducing the typical constitutive behavior and the Coulomb friction envelope of field sea ice. Finally, the proposed discrete element sea ice model is used to study the effect of loading rates on mechanical behavior including failure strength of regional sea ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Factors Associated With Fall Phytoplankton Blooms in the Northern Bering and Chukchi Seas

This study investigates environmental drivers of fall phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic, focusing on the northern Bering and Chukchi seas. Random Forests models were used to analyze covariates of fall phytoplankton blooms from 2013 to 2018, incorporating shipboard, remote sensing, and modeled environmental properties. Four regional models and one comprehensive all-station model considered fall as well as midsummer conditions. Midsummer properties included suspended particulate matter, chlorophyll-a, and the proportion of degraded pheophytin to chlorophyll-a used as a proxy for bloom stage. Open water duration was one of the highest ranked factors in predicting fall blooms. Open water duration also influences the stage of midsummer (July) blooms as indicated by pheophytin proportions, which in turn were the highest-ranked factor for predicting fall bloom events in the Chirikov Basin (northern Bering Sea between St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait) and the Chukchi Sea. Wind direction, specifically easterly winds, was an important predictor in the northern Bering Sea. Maximum wind speed ranked highly at stations located within the nutrient-poor Alaska Coastal Current in the Chukchi Sea. However, stormy days, average and maximum wind speeds generally ranked low in importance as a predictor of fall bloom events. Other parameters, including photosynthetic active radiation, modeled nutrient concentrations, mixed layer depth, and time since sea ice breakup date showed strong but regionally varying relationships with fall blooms. Altogether, results from these Random Forests models suggest that high wind events and storms in the absence of sea ice provide an incomplete narrative for initiating fall bloom events.

Gaffey, C. B. [Clark University, Worcester, MA (Un↗
DOE OSTI2024

Steric Sea Level Rise and Relationships with Model Drift and Water Mass Representation in GFDL CM4 and ESM4

Abstract Density-driven steric seawater changes are a leading-order contributor to global mean sea level rise. However, intermodel differences in the magnitude and spatial patterns of steric sea level rise exist at regional scales and often emerge during the spinup and preindustrial control integrations of climate models. Steric sea level results from an eddy-permitting climate model, GFDL CM4, are compared with a lower-resolution counterpart, GFDL-ESM4. The results from both models are examined through basin-scale heat budgets and watermass analysis, and we compare the patterns of ocean heat uptake, redistribution, and sea level differ in ocean-only [i.e., Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)] and coupled climate configurations. After correcting for model drift, both GFDL CM4 and GFDL-ESM4 simulate nearly equivalent ocean heat content change and global sea level rise during the historical period. However, the GFDL CM4 model exhibits as much as a 40% increase in surface ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean and subsequent increases in horizontal export to other ocean basins after bias correction. The results suggest regional differences in the processes governing Southern Ocean heat export, such as the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW), and gyre transport between the two models, and that sea level changes in these models cannot be fully bias-corrected. Since the process-level differences between the two models are evident in the preindustrial control simulations of both models, these results suggest that the control simulations are important for identifying and correcting sea level–related model biases.

Krasting, John P. [a NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unprecedented Beaufort Sea ice loss in late summer 2021 and its relationship to an extended period of unusually stormy weather

Previous case studies have linked cyclone-induced atmospheric forcing and/or upper-ocean processes to notable Arctic sea ice loss events in the summers of 2012 and 2016. This study examines a more recent and noteworthy case in late summer 2021 in which substantial sea ice loss followed a period of surface meteorological extremes in the Beaufort Sea region of the Arctic. We focus on the period from mid-August to mid-September 2021 that coincided with the Office of Naval Research THINICE Pilot Field Campaign and investigate stormy and windy conditions with respect to air-sea processes impacting sea ice conditions. We find that during the stormy first half of the campaign, cyclone-induced energy fluxes into the marginal ice zone and surrounding waters preconditioned the ice pack for more rapid melt later in the campaign. The second half of the campaign, in contrast, was marked by non-cyclone wind events that enhanced turbulent (namely sensible) heat fluxes into the ice and upper ocean that increased melt. Moreover, this latter period had enhanced advection of the Beaufort Sea ice pack into above-freezing waters, increasing bottom melt to >1 cm d −1 over the remainder of the campaign. While findings are shown to vary by surface type and at relatively small (i.e. ice-floe) scales, insights are offered on the roles of late summer coupled processes on rapid ice loss events in today’s Arctic environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmogenic surface exposure ( 10 Be) dating of raised beaches in Marguerite bay, Antarctic Peninsula: Implications for relative sea-level history

Understanding the dynamics of ice mass loss in polar regions is crucial for deciphering climate change and Glacio Isostatic Adjustment patterns. This study focuses on Marguerite Bay, located in the south-central Antarctic Peninsula. We dated raised beaches to investigate relative sea-level changes using the cosmogenic surface exposure ( 10 Be) method. Previous studies have provided valuable insights into the region's glacial history, but limitations in dating techniques and age estimates necessitate further investigation. By analysing raised shingle beaches in Gaul Cove of Horseshoe Island and the southern coast of Calmette Bay, this research aims to contribute relative sea-level change history for these areas. In Horseshoe Island's Gaul Cove, raised beaches clustered on prominent steps reveal a 15 m relative sea-level change over the last 3.31 ka. Differently, Calmette Bay exhibits a 36 m relative sea-level fall over the last 7.29 ka. Finally, these findings indicate significant and differential glacial-isostatic adjustments in both regions during the middle and late Holocene. Additionally, our data reveal accelerated sea-level fall periods corresponding to Holocene deglaciation and glacial advance events, indicating the shorelines' relative sea-level change sensitivity to climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unsteady Land-Sea Breeze Circulations in the Presence of a Synoptic Pressure Forcing

Unsteady land-sea breezes (LSBs) that result from time-varying surface temperature contrasts Δθ(t) are explored in the presence of a constant synoptic pressure forcing, M g , oriented from sea to land (α = 0°) or land to sea (α = 180°). Large eddy simulations reveal the development of four distinctive regimes, depending on the joint interaction between M g , α, and Δθ(t) in modulating the fine-scale dynamics. Time lags, computed as the shifts that maximize correlation coefficients of the velocity between the unsteady and the corresponding steady scenarios at Δθ = Δθ max , are found to be significant and to extend 2 hr longer for α = 0° compared to α = 180°. These diurnal dynamics result in nonequilibrium conditions that are significantly affected by the flow history, and that behave differently over the two patches for the different α’s. Turbulence is found to be out of equilibrium with the mean flow, and the mean itself is found to be out of equilibrium with the thermal forcing. The sea surface heat flux is consistently more sensitive than its land counterpart to the time-varying external forcing Δθ(t), and more so for synoptic forcing from land to sea (α = 180°). Hence, although the land reaches equilibrium faster, the sea patch is found to exert a stronger control on the turbulence-mean flow equilibrium response. Finally, the vertical velocity profile at the shore and shore-normal velocity transects at the first grid level are shown to encode the multiscale regimes of the LSBs evolution and can thus be used to identify these regimes using k-means clustering.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting September Arctic Sea Ice: A Multimodel Seasonal Skill Comparison

This study quantifies the state of the art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multimodel dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–20 for predictions of pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on 1 June, 1 July, 1 August, and 1 September. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multimodel median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least 3 months in advance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Diversity and Distribution of Hydrocarbon-Degrading Genes in the Cold Seeps from the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas

Marine cold seeps are unique ecological niches characterized by the emergence of hydrocarbons, including methane, which fosters diverse microbial communities. This study investigates the diversity and distribution of hydrocarbon-degrading genes and organisms in sediments from the Caspian and Mediterranean Seas, utilizing 16S rRNA and metagenomic sequencing to elucidate microbial community structure and functional potential. Our findings reveal distinct differences in hydrocarbon degrading gene profiles between the two seas, with pathways for aerobic and anaerobic hydrocarbon degradation co-existing in sediments from both basins. Aerobic pathways predominate in the surface sediments of the Mediterranean Sea, while anaerobic pathways are favored in the surface sediments of the anoxic Caspian Sea. Additionally, sediment depths significantly influence microbial diversity, with variations in gene abundance and community composition observed at different depths. Aerobic hydrocarbon-degrading genes decrease in diversity with depth in the Mediterranean Sea, whereas the diversity of aerobic hydrocarbon-degrading genes increases with depth in the Caspian Sea. These results enhance our understanding of microbial ecology in cold seep environments and have implications for bioremediation practices targeting hydrocarbon pollutants in marine ecosystems.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Changes in sea ice concentration explain half of the winter warming of the Arctic surface

Arctic winter warming is stronger than in summer, but its driving mechanisms remain debated, particularly the roles of local processes, like sea-ice loss, versus remote factors, like atmospheric heat transport. Here we introduce a novel decomposition framework that characterizes Arctic warming as a function of historical atmospheric circulation, sea ice concentration, and carbon dioxide changes using observational and reanalysis data. We show that sea ice changes explain about 55% of the winter Arctic near-surface temperature trend during 1959–2015, after removing the effects directly connected to atmospheric circulation. Dynamically induced warming accounts for about 20% at surface and up to 80% in mid-troposphere. The remaining ~25% is attributed to the increase in carbon dioxide, though it also indirectly affects sea-ice loss and circulation-related warming. These findings highlight the dominant role of sea ice loss and change in atmospheric dynamics in affecting the historical Arctic winter warming.

Arctic Sea Ice change↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vulnerability of Wetlands Due to Projected Sea-Level Rise in the Coastal Plains of the South and Southeast United States

Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise, yet knowledge about their extent and distribution is often limited. We developed a land cover classification of wetlands in the coastal plains of the southern United States along the Gulf of Mexico (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida) using 6161 very-high (2 m per pixel) resolution WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellite images from 2012 to 2015. Area extent estimations were obtained for the following vegetated classes: marsh, scrub, grass, forested upland, and forested wetland, located in elevation brackets between 0 and 10 m above sea level at 0.1 m intervals. Sea-level trends were estimated for each coastal state using tide gauge data collected over the period 1983–2021 and projected for 2100 using the trend estimated over that period. These trends were considered conservative, as sea level rise in the region accelerated between 2010 and 2021. Estimated losses in vegetation area due to sea level rise by 2100 are projected to be at least 12,587 km 2 , of which 3224 km 2 would be coastal wetlands. Louisiana is expected to suffer the largest losses in vegetation (80%) and coastal wetlands (75%) by 2100. Such high-resolution coastal mapping products help to guide adaptation plans in the region, including planning for wetland conservation and coastal development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced mid-latitude warming due to poleward shift of sea salt aerosols in a warmer future

Natural aerosols provide large uncertainties regarding the quantification of the climate effects of aerosols, especially those related to aerosol-cloud interactions. Advancing research on the interaction of natural aerosols and climate can provide a better assessment of the climate impacts of anthropogenic activities. Furthermore, as one of the most dominant natural aerosols, sea salt has the highest proportion of mass in natural aerosols. Sea salt can be regarded as a purely scattering aerosol, causing a negative radiative effect by scattering shortwave solar radiation and acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) through aerosol-cloud interactions. Future climate change will influence sea salt distribution, thus modifying the radiative effects of sea salt, which will further affect the climate. However, few previous studies have explored the interactions between sea salt changes under warming scenarios and climate change.

Yang, Yang [Nanjing Univ. of Information Science a↗
DOE OSTI2025

A New Framework for the Attribution of Air‐Sea CO 2 Exchange

Abstract The air‐sea transfer of carbon dioxide can be viewed as a dynamic system through which atmospheric and oceanic processes push surface waters away from thermodynamic equilibrium, while diffusive gas transfer pulls them back toward local equilibrium. These push/pull processes drive significant sub‐seasonal, seasonal, and interannual variability in air‐sea carbon fluxes, the quantification of which is critical both for diagnosing the ocean response to fossil fuel emissions and for attempts to mitigate anthropogenic climate disruption through intentional modification of surface ocean biogeochemistry. In this study, we present a new approach for attributing air‐sea carbon fluxes to specific mechanisms. The new framework is first applied to a two‐box ocean nutrient and carbon cycle model as an illustrative example. Next, outputs from a regional eddy‐resolving model of the Southern Ocean are analyzed. The roles of multiple physical and biogeochemical processes are identified. The decomposition of the seasonal air‐sea carbon flux shows the dominant role of biological carbon pumps that are partially compensated by the transport convergence. Finally, the framework is used to diagnose the response to mesoscale iron and alkalinity release, explicitly quantifying transport feedback and eventual impacts on net air‐sea carbon flux. Ocean carbon transport has divergent influences between iron and alkalinity release, due to opposing near‐surface gradients of dissolved inorganic carbon. We suggest that our attribution framework may be a useful analytical technique for monitoring natural ocean carbon fluxes and quantifying the impacts of human intervention on the ocean carbon cycle.

Ito, Takamitsu [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sc↗