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At least 19 records

Bayesian Inversion of Seismic and Electromagnetic Data for Marine Gas Reservoir Characterization Using Multi-chain Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampling

In this study we developed an efficient Bayesian inversion framework for interpreting marine seismic amplitude versus angle (AVA) and controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) data for marine reservoir characterization. The framework uses a multi-chain Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, which is a hybrid of DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and Adaptive Metropolis (AM) samplers. The inversion framework is tested by estimating reservoir-fluid saturations and porosity based on marine seismic and CSEM data. The multi-chain MCMC is scalable in terms of the number of chains, and is useful for computationally demanding Bayesian model calibration in scientific and engineering problems. As a demonstration, the approach is used to efficiently and accurately estimate the porosity and saturations in a representative layered synthetic reservoir. The results indicate that the seismic AVA and CSEM joint inversion provides better estimation of reservoir saturations than the seismic AVA-only inversion, especially for the parameters in deep layers. The performance of the inversion approach for various levels of noise in observational data was evaluated – reasonable estimates can be obtained with noise levels up to 25%. Sampling efficiency due to the use of multiple chains was also checked and was found to have almost linear scalability.

Ren, Huiying↗

Combining translational and rotational seismic motions to invert local-scale seismic data for time-variable moment tensors: do rotational motions help for high-frequency seismic data produced by underground explosions?

SUMMARY We present an analysis of combining translational and rotational seismic data in an inversion for the time-variable source time functions corresponding to the components of the seismic moment tensor. We conduct a series of numerical experiments where the data are simulated by a combination of an underground explosion and a co-located double couple shear source and recorded on surface-mounted seismometers within 1–2 km of the source. The experiments are designed to mimic explosion seismology experiments, and thus the data are in the 1–10 Hz frequency range and contain very few surface waves. We use a Monte Carlo method to propagate Earth model uncertainty into the estimates of seismic source parameters. In our experiments, we find that the uncertainty of the estimated seismic source parameters increases when we add rotational seismic motions to the inversion when using a constant number of data channels. In this case, the increased degree of uncertainty in the final results is most likely due to the near-surface Earth model uncertainty that we introduce in our simulations. However, for a fixed number of seismic stations, adding rotational seismic motions to the inversion acts to decrease the uncertainty of the estimated seismic source parameters, most likely due to the increase in the number of data channels used in the inversion.

Poppeliers, Christian (ORCID:0000000159526849)↗

A frozen Gaussian approximation-based multi-level particle swarm optimization for seismic inversion

In this paper, we propose a frozen Gaussian approximation (FGA)-based multi-level particle swarm optimization (MLPSO) method for seismic inversion of high-frequency wave data. The method addresses two challenges in it: First, the optimization problem is highly non-convex, which makes hard for gradient-based methods to reach global minima. This is tackled by MLPSO which can escape from undesired local minima. Second, the character of high-frequency of seismic waves requires a large number of grid points in direct computational methods, and thus renders an extremely high computational demand on the simulation of each sample in MLPSO. We overcome this difficulty by three steps: First, we use FGA to compute high-frequency wave propagation based on asymptotic analysis on phase plane; Then we design a constrained full waveform inversion problem to prevent the optimization search getting into regions of velocity where FGA is not accurate; Last, we solve the constrained optimization problem by MLPSO that employs FGA solvers with different fidelity. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by a two-dimensional full-waveform inversion example of the smoothed Marmousi model.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

More Than 40 yr of Potentially Induced Seismicity Close to the San Andreas Fault in San Ardo, Central California

Evidence for fluid–injection–induced seismicity is rare in California hydrocarbon basins, despite widespread injection close to seismically active faults. We investigate a potential case of injection–induced earthquakes associated with San Ardo oilfield operations that began in the early 1950s. The largest potentially induced events occurred in 1955 (M L 5.2) and 1985 (M w 4.5) within ~6 km from the oilfield. We analyze Synthetic Aperture Radar interferometric images acquired by Sentinel–1A/B satellites between 2016 and 2020 and find surface deformation of up to 1.5 cm/yr, indicating pressure–imbalance in parts of the oilfield. Fluid injection in San Ardo is concentrated within highly permeable rocks directly above the granitic basement at a depth of ~800 m. Seismicity predominantly occurs along basement faults at 6–13 km depths. Seismicity and wastewater disposal wells are spatially correlated to the north of the oilfield. Temporal correlations are observed over more than 40 yr with correlation coefficients of up to 0.71 for seismicity within a 24 km distance from the oilfield. Such large distances have not previously been observed in California but are similar to the large spatial footprint of injection in Oklahoma. Furthermore, the San Ardo seismicity shows anomalous clustering with earthquakes consistently occurring at close spatial proximity but long interevent times. Similar clustering has previously been reported in California geothermal fields and may be indicative of seismicity driven by long–term, spatially persistent external forcing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NSR&D Program Fiscal Year (FY) 2015 Call for Proposals Mitigation of Seismic Risk at Nuclear Facilities using Seismic Isolation

Seismic isolation (SI) has the potential to drastically reduce seismic response of structures, systems, or components (SSCs) and therefore the risk associated with large seismic events (large seismic event could be defined as the design basis earthquake (DBE) and/or the beyond design basis earthquake (BDBE) depending on the site location). This would correspond to a potential increase in nuclear safety by minimizing the structural response and thus minimizing the risk of material release during large seismic events that have uncertainty associated with their magnitude and frequency. The national consensus standard America Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard 4, Seismic Analysis of Safety Related Nuclear Structures recently incorporated language and commentary for seismically isolating a large light water reactor or similar large nuclear structure. Some potential benefits of SI are: 1) substantially decoupling the SSC from the earthquake hazard thus decreasing risk of material release during large earthquakes, 2) cost savings for the facility and/or equipment, and 3) applicability to both nuclear (current and next generation) and high hazard non-nuclear facilities. Issue: To date no one has evaluated how the benefit of seismic risk reduction reduces cost to construct a nuclear facility. Objective: Use seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) to evaluate the reduction in seismic risk and estimate potential cost savings of seismic isolation of a generic nuclear facility. This project would leverage ongoing Idaho National Laboratory (INL) activities that are developing advanced (SPRA) methods using Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (NLSSI) analysis. Technical Approach: The proposed study is intended to obtain an estimate on the reduction in seismic risk and construction cost that might be achieved by seismically isolating a nuclear facility. The nuclear facility is a representative pressurized water reactor building nuclear power plant (NPP) structure. Figure 1: Project activities The study will consider a representative NPP reinforced concrete reactor building and representative plant safety system. This study will leverage existing research and development (R&D) activities at INL. Figure 1 shows the proposed study steps with the steps in blue representing activities already funded at INL and the steps in purple the activities that would be funded under this proposal. The following results will be documented: 1) Comparison of seismic risk for the non-seismically isolated (non-SI) and seismically isolated (SI) NPP, and 2) an estimate of construction cost savings when implementing SI at the site of the generic NPP.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Central Asia Seismic Hazard Assessment (CASHA): A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) underpin the calculation of earthquake loads in most building codes around the world. In Central Asia, the building codes are slowly being updated to incorporate some of the contemporary concepts of seismic hazard representation. There is also a regional desire to coordinate hazard assessments and building code modernization. However, some challenges remain. Expertise in the region related to seismic hazard assessments is still largely compartmentalised, requiring a significant amount of training and capacity building in seismic hazard assessment related topics. In addition, there are vast amounts of seismic data (bulletin and waveforms), both from analogue and digital eras, that the region’s countries stored but until recently did not use or share among themselves or with the broader seismological community around the world. Finally, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, many of the countries’ seismic networks suffered a major setback with the lack of attention and budget to update existing equipment and installation of new instruments. In order to address these issues, the United States Department of Energy through Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) initiated a project in 2016 to engage and train local scientists in Central Asia to install new equipment, to enhance the quality of seismic monitoring and reporting, to improve and harmonise the regional earthquake catalogue, and to conduct national probabilistic seismic hazard assessments using the new and improved datasets. To achieve the seismic hazard assessment related goals, a series of workshops were held in Almaty, Kazakhstan; Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; and Dushanbe, Tajikistan from 2016 until 2020. During the time that the COVID-19 pandemic restricted travel, workshops continued online (22 online workshops were hosted in two years). Finally, in May 2022, an in-person workshop in Istanbul, Turkey brought together all project participants along with civil engineers engaged with building code activities in their respective countries, providing a platform to discuss the implementation of the hazard models into updates of building codes in each country, as well as to discuss model parameters, sensitivity analyses and model results in terms of hazard maps, uniform hazard spectra and hazard deaggregations. The workshops were a combination of lectures and hands-on exercises, and included international participation as well as local scientists and engineers. The workshops served several purposes, including training, coordination of data collection, interactions between local earth scientists and engineers, and brainstorming and knowledge exchange among local and international experts. This report outlines the new earthquake catalogue compilation effort and the PSHA project undertaken in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan as part of this initiative. The southern part of this region is tectonically active with moderate to high levels of both shallow crustal seismic activity and occurrence of deeper earthquakes under the Hindu Kush and Pamir mountain ranges. Deeper earthquakes also occur near southwestern Kazakhstan, under the eastern Greater Caucasus and Caspian Sea. Large portions of central and northern Kazakhstan, on the other hand, are in stable continental regions with low levels of seismic activity. This study systematically compiles and improves all available data on local seismicity, active faults, and ground motion attenuation characteristics of the region; and builds a framework to enable a contemporary PSHA to be carried out with the engagement of local scientists. While the project was regional, the seismic hazard assessments are primarily driven by the countries’ own national preferences and understanding of data collection, interpretation, and validation of results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Laboratory investigation of hydraulic fracturing in granitic rocks using active and passive seismic monitoring

SUMMARY Knowledge of the fracturing processes can be important for the optimization of pressurized fluid injection operations in the deep underground rock mass. Active and passive seismic monitoring techniques have been used in the field for tracking or mapping the propagating hydraulic fracture. Although both these monitoring techniques provide valuable information about the generated fracture network, it is difficult for either technique to comprehensibly identify the different processes associated with hydraulic fracturing. The combined active and passive monitoring has the potential for better characterization of the complex hydraulic fracturing phenomena. In this study, laboratory hydraulic fracturing experiments with combined active and passive seismic monitoring were conducted on true triaxially loaded Barre granite cubes with different fluid injection rates. The seismic inelastic fracturing was detected by 16 passive acoustic emission sensors, where 3678 and 2370 seismic source events were detected for the high and low injection rate experiments, respectively. For active monitoring, strong variations in the attributes of signals were observed which were transmitted through four source–receiver pairs, placed both perpendicular and parallel to the generated hydraulic fracture. Positive velocity changes were observed for active sensor pairs with ray paths passing through the generated hydraulic fracture indicating fluid permeation, whereas isolated dry deformation was characterized by a slight but permanent velocity decrease. Compared to velocity, the energy of the active signals was 1–2 orders of magnitude more sensitive to different hydraulic fracturing processes. However, the sensitivity and signatures of the active signal attributes were found to be dependent on the frequency range and direction of ray path with respect to the location of the generated fracture network. Using the coupled evaluation of the active and passive signals we were able to systematically identify various hydraulic fracturing processes including: (1) aseismic deformation, (2) fracture initiation and fluid permeation, (3) pressure build-up, (4) fracture propagation and (5) pressure release and leak-off. The results of this study showed that combining the respective advantages of active and passive seismic techniques and using both of them to monitor the failure processes can facilitate a more comprehensive understanding and better control of the hydraulic stimulations in subsurface operations.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Utah FORGE - Development of a Reservoir Seismic Velocity Model and Seismic Resolution Study

This is data from and a final report on the development of a 3D velocity model for the larger FORGE area and on the seismic resolution in the stimulated fracture volume at the bottom of well 16A-32. The velocity model was developed using RMS velocities of the seismic reflection survey and seismic velocity logs from borehole measurements as an input model. To improve the accuracy of the model in the shallow subsurface, travel times phase arrivals of the direct propagating P-waves were determined from the seismic reflection data, using PhaseNet, a deep-neural-network-based seismic arrival time picking method. The travel times were subsequently inverted using the input velocity model. The seismic resolution study used borehole and surface seismic sensors as well as the seismicity observed during the April 2022 stimulation experiment to estimate the seismic resolution in the activated fracture reservoir. The data contain a 3D P- and S-wave velocity model for the larger FORGE area.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Seeking Repeating Anthropogenic Seismic Sources: Implications for Seismic Velocity Monitoring at Fault Zones

Abstract Seismic velocities in rocks are highly sensitive to changes in permanent deformation and fluid content. The temporal variation of seismic velocity during the preparation phase of earthquakes has been well documented in laboratories but rarely observed in nature. It has been recently found that some anthropogenic, high‐frequency (>1 Hz) seismic sources are powerful enough to generate body waves that travel down to a few kilometers and can be used to monitor fault zones at seismogenic depth. Anthropogenic seismic sources typically have fixed spatial distribution and provide new perspectives for velocity monitoring. In this work, we propose a systematic workflow to seek such powerful seismic sources in a rapid and straightforward manner. We tackle the problem from a statistical point of view, considering that persistent, powerful seismic sources yield highly coherent correlation functions (CFs) between pairs of seismic sensors. The algorithm is tested in California and Japan. Multiple sites close to fault zones show high‐frequency CFs stable for an extended period of time. These findings have great potential for monitoring fault zones, including the San Jacinto Fault and the Ridgecrest area in Southern California, Napa in Northern California, and faults in central Japan. However, extra steps, such as beamforming or polarization analysis, are required to determine the dominant seismic sources and study the source characteristics, which are crucial to interpreting the velocity monitoring results. Train tremors identified by the present approach have been successfully used for seismic velocity monitoring of the San Jacinto Fault in previous studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The use of seismic spatial gradients in a single layer neural network for seismic source discrimination: proof of concept

This report describes a proof-of-concept method of seismic source discrimination using seismic gradiometry and a common machine learning technique. The tests described here are purely numerical, using synthetic seismic data and well understood mathematical techniques. The primary innovation described here is the application of a richer seismic data set derived from seismic gradiometry. Seismic gradiometry is a method to estimate the time variable spatial gradient of the wavefield to compute various wavefield attributes such as slowness, dynamic strain, and rotational motions. With the addition of these wavefield attributes, we are afforded up to twenty "compo- nents" of time series data measured at a single point on, or in, the Earth. This is in direct contrast to conventional three-component seismic data collected at several locations using a seismic network. Using the gradiometrically-derived wavefield components directly in a single-layer neural network, I show that it is possible to discriminate between three common seismic source types (earthquakes, explosions, and opening fractures) for various noise conditions and gradiometry configurations.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

The Lusi seismic experiment: An initial study to understand the effect of seismic activity to Lusi

The spectacular Lumpur Sidoarjo (Lusi) eruption started in northeast Java on the 29 of May 2006 following a M6.3 earthquake striking the island [1,2]. Initially, several gas and mud eruption sites appeared along the reactivated strike-slip Watukosek fault system [3] and within weeks several villages were submerged by boiling mud. The most prominent eruption site was named Lusi. The Lusi seismic experiment is a project aims to begin a detailed study of seismicity around the Lusi area. In this initial phase we deploy 30 seismometers strategically distributed in the area around Lusi and along the Watukosek fault zone that stretches between Lusi and the Arjuno Welirang (AW) complex. The purpose of the initial monitoring is to conduct a preliminary seismic campaign aiming to identify the occurrence and the location of local seismic events in east Java particularly beneath Lusi.This network will locate small event that may not be captured by the existing BMKG network. It will be crucial to design the second phase of the seismic experiment that will consist of a local earthquake tomography of the Lusi-AW region and spatial and temporal variations of vp/vs ratios. The goal of this study is to understand how the seismicity occurring along the Sunda subduction zone affects to the behavior of the Lusi eruption. Our study will also provide a large dataset for a qualitative analysis of earthquake triggering studies, earthquake-volcano and earthquake-earthquake interactions. In this study, we will extract Green’s functions from ambient seismic noise data in order to image the shallow subsurface structure beneath LUSI area. The waveform cross-correlation technique will be apply to all of recordings of ambient seismic noise at 30 seismographic stations around the LUSI area. We use the dispersive behaviour of the retrieved Rayleigh waves to infer velocity structures in the shallow subsurface.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

EGS Collab Experiment 1: 3D Seismic Velocity Model and Updated Microseismic Catalog from Double-Difference Seismic Tomography

This package contains a 3D Seismic velocity model and an updated microseismic catalog obtained for a double-difference seismic tomography study. The 3D_seismic_velocity_model text file contains x (m), y(m), z(m), P-wave velocity (km/s), P-wave velocity quality indicator (1 for well-constrained; 0 for poorly constrained), S-wave velocity (km/s), and S-wave velocity quality indicator (1 for well-constrained; 0 for poorly constrained). The Updated_MEQ_catalog text file contains event origin time, x(m), y(m), z(m), error in x (m), error in y (m), error in z (m), and RMS misfit (millisecond). The 3D_seismic_P-wave_velocity_model animation file shows slices of the 3D P-wave velocity model. The 3D_seismic_S-wave_velocity_model animation file shows slices of the 3D S-wave velocity model. The Interactive_MEQ_location_comparison API file is an interactive visualization of the updated microseismic event locations and the original seismic catalog. The visualization allows users to view and compare the event locations by dragging, rotating, and zooming in. An updated version of 3D_seismic_velocity_model and associated animations were included, which were calculated with a more strict assumption for quality indicators.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Validating induced seismicity forecast models—Induced Seismicity Test Bench

Abstract Induced earthquakes often accompany fluid injection, and the seismic hazard they pose threatens various underground engineering projects. Models to monitor and control induced seismic hazard with traffic light systems should be probabilistic, forward‐looking, and updated as new data arrive. In this study, we propose an Induced Seismicity Test Bench to test and rank such models; this test bench can be used for model development, model selection, and ensemble model building. We apply the test bench to data from the Basel 2006 and Soultz‐sous‐Forêts 2004 geothermal stimulation projects, and we assess forecasts from two models: Shapiro and Smoothed Seismicity (SaSS) and Hydraulics and Seismics (HySei). These models incorporate a different mix of physics‐based elements and stochastic representation of the induced sequences. Our results show that neither model is fully superior to the other. Generally, HySei forecasts the seismicity rate better after shut‐in but is only mediocre at forecasting the spatial distribution. On the other hand, SaSS forecasts the spatial distribution better and gives better seismicity rate estimates before shut‐in. The shut‐in phase is a difficult moment for both models in both reservoirs: the models tend to underpredict the seismicity rate around, and shortly after, shut‐in.

Király‐Proag, Eszter↗

Seismic Diffusivity and the Influence of Heterogeneity on Injection‐Induced Seismicity

Abstract The spatiotemporal patterns of injection‐induced seismicity (IIS) are commonly interpreted with the concept of a triggering front, which propagates in a diffusion‐like manner with an associated diffusivity parameter. Here, we refer to this diffusivity as the “seismic diffusivity.” Several previous studies implicitly assume that seismic diffusivity is equivalent to the effective hydraulic diffusivity of the subsurface, which describes the behavior of the mean pressure field in heterogeneous porous media. Seismicity‐based approaches for hydraulic characterization or simulations of IIS using domains of homogeneous equivalent porous media are implicitly based on this assumed equivalence. However, seismicity is expected to propagate with the threshold triggering pressure, and thus not be controlled by the evolution of the mean pressure field. We present numerical simulations of fluid injection to compare the seismic and effective hydraulic diffusivities in heterogeneous formations (including fractured rock). The numerical model combines uncoupled, linear pressure diffusion with the Mohr‐Coulomb failure criterion to simulate IIS. We demonstrate that connected pathways of relatively high hydraulic diffusivity in heterogeneous media (particularly in fractured rock domains) allow the threshold triggering pressure to propagate more rapidly than predicted by the effective hydraulic diffusivity. As a result, the seismic diffusivity is greater than the effective hydraulic diffusivity in heterogeneous porous media, possibly by an order of magnitude or more. Additionally, we present a case study of IIS near Soultz‐sous‐Forêts where seismic diffusivity is found to be at least one order of magnitude larger than the effective hydraulic diffusivity.

Haagenson, Ryan↗

Confining system integrity assessment by detection of natural gas migration using seismic diffractions [Seismic diffractions for gas leakage detection in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico]

Successful carbon capture and storage (CCS) requires secure CO 2 confinement within a geologic reservoir. If associated with a depleted hydrocarbon reservoir, the sealing capability can be determined by examination of the shallow subsurface for hydrocarbon leaks. Numerous seismic signatures have been reported to be hydrocarbon indicators. The interpretation can be advanced by using seismic diffractions, which could indicate subtle hydrocarbon accumulations not detectable by conventional techniques. In this work, we investigate the potential of seismic diffractions for use in shallow gas detection. We extract diffractions from the ultra-high-resolution 3D P-Cable seismic dataset acquired along the Gulf of Mexico inner continental shelf. Interpretation of this dataset revealed numerous seismic signatures associated with hydrocarbon accumulations (e.g., a prominent gas chimney). We analyze scattering features of the detected hydrocarbon accumulations and confirm the correlation between confidently interpreted gas accumulations and seismic diffractions. Based on that, we suggest using diffractions for confining system integrity assessment. As a result, diffraction analysis allows operating with subtle seismic signals that facilitates exploration of reliable CO 2 storage sites.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

3D Deep Learning Joint Inversion of Active Seismic Full Waveform and Passive Seismic Traveltime Data for Reservoir Imaging and Uncertainty Quantification

Here, we present deep learning (DL) networks for three-dimensional (3D) joint inversion of active seismic full waveform and passive seismic traveltime data to image reservoirs and their properties and quantify imaging uncertainties. Active seismic full-waveform data can provide high-resolution monitoring images but are collected only intermittently because of their high acquisition cost. In contrast, passive seismic data can be gathered at relatively low cost between regular active surveys, although their imaging quality can be compromised by factors such as low signal-to-noise ratios and limited ray coverage of the target. Although these datasets are routinely acquired together at CO 2 storage sites, their combined inversion within a 3D DL framework has not been previously demonstrated. To our knowledge, this is the first study to address this gap, combining the strength of both data types. For efficient data storage and DL training with large 3D seismic datasets, we use a 3D data matrix in which a random number of passive seismic traveltime data are stored as parabolic envelopes using one-hot encoding and a 3D full-waveform data matrix in which multiple shot gathers are summed. Two network architectures are evaluated: a single-encoder U-Net for single-data type inversion and a dual-encoder U-Net for joint inversion of active and passive seismic data. We also evaluate the single-encoder U-Net for joint inversion by concatenating full-waveform data and traveltime data. We propose a systematic approach for selecting an optimal dropout rate that balances regularization during training and Monte Carlo dropout-based uncertainty quantification during prediction by examining the correlation coefficient between standard deviation and prediction error, along with the training misfit, across a range of dropout rates. 3D DL inversion experiments include five different network configurations, with evaluations under ideal, noisy and dropout-enabled conditions. Both model and data uncertainties are assessed, as well as their combined effects. Across all conditions, the networks consistently predict accurate CO 2 saturation models with low prediction errors, such as a structural similarity index of 0.993 and CO 2 difference of 1.1%. Uncertainty estimates show strong spatial correlation with prediction errors, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed dropout selection approach. The results demonstrate that our DL approach, utilizing compact data representations and appropriate uncertainty quantification, yields accurate subsurface images under various inversion conditions and provides valuable insights into the reliability of predictions.

Um, Evan Schankee [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗