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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1988

Annual cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation, and Southern Oscillation in global precipitation

Using 80 years (1901-1980) of global station rainfall data, the spatial and temporal variations in global precipitation associated with the annual cycle (AC), the tropospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and southern oscillation (SO, defined as the background 3- to 7-year fluctuation in which the El Nino events are embedded) were investigated. It was found that the dominant global precipitation pattern fluctuates irregularly, with 2- to 5-year periods associated with the SO. The temporal variation shows, in addition to the SO time scale, a distinct QBO signal. The best correlation occurred during the El Nino SO, with an apparent phase locking between the QBO and SO. The role of the possible influence of the AC and other factors involved in the QBO interaction is discussed.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Aura/MLS Observes, and SD-WACCM-X Simulates the Seasonality, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Nino Southern Oscillation of the Migrating Diurnal Tide Driving Upper Mesospheric Co Primarily Through Vertical Advection

This work uses 17 years of upper mesospheric carbon monoxide (CO) and temperature observations by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on-board the Aura satellite to present and explain the seasonal and interannual variability of the migrating diurnal tide (DW1) component of upper mesospheric CO. This work then compares these observations to simulations by the Specified Dynamics – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with Ionosphere/Thermosphere eXtension (SD-WACCM-X). Results show that, for all seasons, MLS CO local-time perturbations peaks above 85 km and has a latitude structure resembling the (1,1) mode in temperature. On the other hand, SD-WACCM-X DW1 also peaks above 85 km and has a latitude structure resembling the (1,1) mode but it simulates 2 local maximum of the (1,1) mode between 85 km and 92 km. Despite the differences in altitude structure, a tendency analysis and the adiabatic displacement method revealed that, on seasonal and interannual timescales, observed and modelled CO’s (1,1) component can be reproduced solely using vertical advection. It was also found that both observed and modelled CO’s (1,1) component contains interannual oscillations with periodicities close to that of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation and the El Nino Southern Oscillation. From these results, this work concludes that on seasonal and interannual timescales, the observed and modelled (1,1) mode affects the global structure of upper mesospheric CO primarily through vertical advection.

Cornelius Csar Jude H. Salinas↗
NASA NTRS2023

Aura/MLS Observes and SD-WACCM-X Simulates the Seasonality, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation of the Migrating Diurnal Tide Driving Upper Mesospheric CO Primarily Through Vertical Advection

This work uses 17 years of upper mesospheric carbon monoxide (CO) and temperature observations by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on-board the Aura satellite to present and explain the seasonal and interannual variability of the migrating diurnal tide (DW1) component of upper mesospheric CO. This work then compares these observations to simulations by the Specified Dynamics – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with Ionosphere/Thermosphere eXtension (SD-WACCM-X). Results show that, for all seasons, MLS CO local-time perturbations peaks above 85 km and has a latitude structure resembling the (1,1) mode in temperature. On the other hand, SD-WACCM-X DW1 also peaks above 85 km and has a latitude structure resembling the (1,1) mode but it simulates 2 local maximum of the (1,1) mode between 85 km and 92 km. Despite the differences in altitude structure, a tendency analysis and the adiabatic displacement method revealed that, on seasonal and interannual timescales, observed and modelled CO’s (1,1) component can be reproduced solely using vertical advection. It was also found that both observed and modelled CO’s (1,1) component contains interannual oscillations with periodicities close to that of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. From these results, this work concludes that on seasonal and interannual timescales, the observed and modelled (1,1) mode affects the global structure of upper mesospheric CO primarily through vertical advection.

Cornelius Csar Jude H Salinas↗
NASA NTRS2024

Investigating the Strength and Variability of El Niño Southern Oscillation Teleconnections to Hydroclimate and Maize Yields in Southern and East Africa

The state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is critical for seasonal climate forecasts, but recent events diverged substantially from expectations in many regions, including Sub-Saharan Africa where seasonal forecasts are critical tools for addressing food security. Here, we evaluate 39 years (1982–2020) of data on hydroclimate, leaf area index, and maize yields to investigate the strength of ENSO teleconnections in southern and East Africa. Teleconnections to precipitation, soil moisture, and leaf area index are generally stronger during ENSO phases that cause drought conditions (El Niño in southern Africa and La Niña in East Africa), with seasonality that aligns well with the maize growing seasons. Within maize growing areas, however, ENSO teleconnections to hydroclimate and vegetation are generally weaker compared to the broader geographic regions, especially in East Africa. There is also little evidence that the magnitude of the ENSO event affects the hydroclimate or vegetation response in these maize regions. Maize yields in Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, and Zimbabwe all correlate significantly with hydroclimate and leaf area index, with South Africa and Zimbabwe showing the strongest and most consistent yield responses to ENSO events. Our results highlight the chain of causality from El Niño and La Niña forcing of regional anomalies in hydroclimate to vegetation health and maize yields in southern and East Africa. The large spread across individual ENSO events, however, underscores the limitations of this climate mode for seasonal climate prediction in the region, and the importance of finding additional sources of skill for improving climate and yield forecasts.

El Niño Southern Oscillation↗
NASA NTRS1993

On the structure of the Southern Oscillation

A realistic oceanic general circulation model is forced with winds observed over the tropical Pacific between 1967 and 1979. The structure of the simulated Southern Oscillation is strikingly different in the western and eastern sides of the basin, because the principal interannual zonal-wind fluctuations are confined to the west and are in the form of an equatorial jet. This causes thermocline displacements to have maxima off the equator in the west (where the curl of the wind is large) but on the equator in the east. Zonal phase propagation, both on and off the equator, is at different speeds in the west and east. The phase pattern is complex, and there is, on interannual time scale, no explicit evidence of individual equatorial waves. These results lead to a modification of the 'delayed oscillator' mechanism originally proposed by Schopf and Suarez to explain a continual Southern Oscillation. The results also permit an evaluation of the various coupled ocean-atmosphere models that simulate the Southern Oscillation and indicate which measurements are necessary to determine which models are most relevant to reality.

Chao, YI↗
NASA NTRS2001

Southern Ocean Climate and Sea Ice Anomalies Associated with the Southern Oscillation

The anomalies in the climate and sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean and their relationships with the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated using a 17-year of data set from 1982 through 1998. We correlate the polar climate anomalies with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and examine the composites of these anomalies under the positive (SOI > 0), neutral (0 > SOI > -1), and negative (SOI < -1) phases of SOL The climate data set consists of sea-level pressure, wind, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature fields, while the sea ice data set describes its extent, concentration, motion, and surface temperature. The analysis depicts, for the first time, the spatial variability in the relationship of the above variables and the SOL The strongest correlation between the SOI and the polar climate anomalies are found in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen and Ross sea sectors. The composite fields reveal anomalies that are organized in distinct large-scale spatial patterns with opposing polarities at the two extremes of SOI, and suggest oscillating climate anomalies that are closely linked to the SO. Within these sectors, positive (negative) phases of the SOI are generally associated with lower (higher) sea-level pressure, cooler (warmer) surface air temperature, and cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature in these sectors. Associations between these climate anomalies and the behavior of the Antarctic sea ice cover are clearly evident. Recent anomalies in the sea ice cover that are apparently associated with the SOI include: the record decrease in the sea ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea from mid- 1988 through early 199 1; the relationship between Ross Sea SST and ENSO signal, and reduced sea ice concentration in the Ross Sea; and, the shortening of the ice season in the eastern Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, far western Weddell Sea, and the lengthening of the ice season in the western Ross Sea, Bellingshausen Sea and central Weddell Sea gyre over the period 1988-1994. Four ENSO episodes over the last 17 years contributed to a negative mean in the SOI (-0.5). In each of these episodes, significant retreats in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Sea were observed providing direct confirmation of the impact of SO on the Antarctic sea ice cover.

Kwok, R.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A theory for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model is presented for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation that reproduces its major features, including its recurrence at irregular intervals. The interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle is maintained by deterministic interactions in the tropical Pacific region. Ocean dynamics alter sea-surface temperature, changing the atmospheric heating; the resulting changes in surface wind alter the ocean dynamics. Annually varying mean conditions largely determine the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of El Nino events.

Cane, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Adaptive filtering and prediction of the Southern Oscillation index

Singular spectrum analysis (SSA), a variant of principal component analysis, is applied to a time series of the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The analysis filters out variability unrelated to the Southern Oscillation and separates the high-frequency, 2- to 3-year variability, including the quasi-biennial oscillation, from the lower-frequency 4- to 6-year El Nino cycle. The maximum entropy method (MEM) is applied to forecasting the prefiltered SOI. Prediction based on MEM-associated autoregresive models has useful skill for 30-36 months. A 1993-1994 La Nina event is predicted based on data through February 1992.

Keppenne, Christian L.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Combined Effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Lake Chad Level Variability Region

In this study, the combined effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Lake Chad (LC) level variability is explored. Our results show that the lake level at the Bol monitoring station has a statistically significant correlation with precipitation (R2 = 0.6, at the 99.5% confidence level). The period between the late 1960s and early 1970s marked a turning point in the response of the regional rainfall to climatic drivers, thereby severely affecting the LC level. Our results also suggest that the negative impact of the cold phase of AMO on Sahel precipitation masks and supersedes the positive effect of La Niña in the early the 1970s. The drop in the size of LC level from 282.5 m in the early 1960s to about 278.1 m in 1983/1984 was the largest to occur within the period of study (1900-2010) and coincides with the combined cold phase of AMO and strong El Niño phase of ENSO. Further analyses show that the current warm phase of AMO and increasing La Niña episodes appear to be playing a major role in the increased precipitation in the Sahel region. The LC level is responding to this increase in precipitation by a gradual recovery, though it is still below the levels of the 1960s. This understanding of the AMO-ENSO-rainfall-LC level association will help in forecasting the impacts of similar combined episodes in the future. These findings also have implications for long-term water resources management in the LC region.

ENSO↗
NASA NTRS1989

Length-of-day variations caused by El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

Two prominent interannual atmospheric fluctuations, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the troposphere-ocean system and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere, account for most of the observed interannual length-of-day (LOD) variation from 1964 through 1987, with a relative contribution of about 2 to 1. Thus the atmosphere-LOD connection extends from seasonal and shorter periods to interannual periods up to about 10 years.

Chao, B. Fong↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Child's Tantrum: El Nino. The Origin of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation

In 1997, a child's tantrums caught the world's attention. These tantrums took the form not of crying and foot stamping, but of droughts and floods. Obviously, this was no ordinary child. It was, in fact, The Child, or El Nino, as it was, named in the late 1800s by South American observers, who noted that its timing coincided with the Christmas holiday. El Nino is a reversal in sea surface temperature (SST) distributions that occurs once every few years in the tropical Pacific. When it coincides with a cyclical shift in air pressure, known as the Southern Oscillation, normal weather patterns are drastically altered. The combined phenomenon is known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although ENSO is a regular phenomenon, it was unusually strong in 1997. It produced heavy rainfall and floods in California and bestowed spring-like temperatures on the Midwest during the winter. These drastic changes in normal weather patterns captured the public imagination, from news reports to jokes on late-night talk shows. Naturally, people wanted to. know as much, about El Nino as possible. Fortunately, scientists had at their disposal new satellites and ocean sensors that provided an unprecedented level of information. Consequently, not only was the 1997 ENSO the strongest in recent memory, but it was also the most thoroughly studied. Prominent groups such as the NASA Seasonalto-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) combined numerous aspects of climate modeling into a single, predictive endeavor.

Picault, Joel↗
NASA NTRS1986

The El-Nino, the Southern Oscillation and the earth rotation

The relationship between length of day (LOD) variations and the Southern Oscillation (SO), and with the associated El Nino phenomenon, is studied. Interannual changes in the LOD are shown to be linearly related to a SO sea level pressure index. A possible physical mechanism for this relationship is the thermal winds caused by changes in the equator to pole heat transports associated with El Nino events and the SO.

Eubanks, T. M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

January-february Tropospheric Climate for the Northern Hemisphere and the 11-year Solar Cycle, the QBO and the Southern Oscillation

Examined here is a recently discovered association between the 11-year solar cycle and the atmosphere that is most easily detectable when the two phases of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) are considered individually rather than pooled. The influence of the Southern Oscillation (SO) for either of the two QBO phases is then combined with that of the solar cycle in the form of two-predictor multiple regression. The strong and well-defined relationship between the 11-year 10.7 cm solar flux cycle and the lower troposphere Northern Hemisphere January-February climate for QBO phase-stratified samples (van Loon and Labitzke 1988, Barnston and Livezey 1989) failed for the west QBO phase in 1989. Here, the opposing 1989 event is explained, at least in part, on the basis of the phase of the SO (the cold tropical Pacific SST event of 1988 to 1989). It is demonstrated that both the SO and the solar flux have moderate and quasi-independent correlations with the climate over certain regions, and where there is strong overlap they can work either in harmony or in opposition. In 1989 in North America the influences of the SO and the flux conflicted to an unprecedented extent, and the SO was the controlling influence in most regions of the continent (western Canada being one exception). The 1989 event draws attention to the smallness of the QBO phase-stratified samples and the still more serious holes in the two-dimensional sample space of flux and SO when both factors are viewed as predictors within one QBO phase.

Barnston, Anthony G.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Northern Brazil Agriculture: Measuring Soybean Yields in Northern Brazil During El Niño-Southern Oscillation Conditions to Evaluate Trends in Agricultural Production and Support Crop Forecasting, 1984 – 2023

As one of the largest agricultural exporters in the world, Brazil’s crop productivity is highly influential to the world’s food supply. Crop productivity across Brazil is heavily influenced by climatic factors, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which drives spatially heterogenous effects on growing conditions. To understand the relationship between ENSO conditions and staple crop productivity, the team used 1984 – 2023 climatic data and vegetation indices for four Brazilian states: Bahia, Mato Grosso, Pará, and Tocantins. The team focused on soybean growing areas in each state derived from annual land use/land cover classifications. Monthly mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) per state were calculated using multispectral imagery from the Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imagery (OLI) sensors. In addition, the team used crop production indices, ENSO anomalies, temperature, and precipitation data in this study. The team found that although monthly ENSO anomaly did have a positive relationship between temperature and a slight negative relationship with precipitation, ENSO and monthly soy NDVI were not significantly correlated. Results find no association between ENSO conditions and NDVI in the study area at the state level spatial resolution during the study period. Furthermore, the team found that there was no correlation between cumulative growing season soy NDVI and detrended soy production yield for this study region at the spatial and temporal scale of the analysis. Findings from this project will be used by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service to inform crop productivity forecasting.

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS1999

Use of Data to Improve El Nino Southern Oscillation Simulations and Forecasts

Various data over the period 1980-1998 have been used to improve El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulations and forecasts performed by coupled ocean/atmosphere models. For such a study, oceanic and atmospheric satellite data are necessary. Models assume a baroclinic ocean with a mixed layer coupled to a baroclinic atmosphere to simulate the anomalous fields. The various data have been used to revisit the parameterizations of the subsurface temperature in the mixed layer, atmospheric convection, and friction in the baroclinic ocean. This new model, named Tsub.Conv, simulates 4-year oscillations like the model with the original parameterization, but with anomalous thermocline and wind anomalies that agree a lot better with reality. The atmospheric model still presents some deficiencies in the eastern Pacific and when it is replaced by a statistical atmosphere, the coupled model (Tsub.Astat) performs even better. It is found that the off-equatorial ocean and wind curl anomalies play a crucial role for all these models and that Tsub.Astat simulates an ocean heat content recharge coming from the north prior to a warm event like the ones observed during the 1985-1992 period. The ENSO forecasts over 1980-1998 are considerably improved with Tsub.Astat. One needs to add the simulation of westerly wind bursts to be able to forecast the 1997 event one year in advance. Additional information is contained in the original.

Perigaud, Claire↗
NASA NTRS1984

A review of the Southern Oscillation - Oceanic-atmospheric circulation changes and related rainfall anomalies

The region of South America is emphasized in the present consideration of the Southern Oscillation (SO) oceanic and atmospheric circulation changes. The persistence of climate anomalies associated with El Nino-SO events is due to strong atmosphere-ocean coupling. Once initiated, the SO follows a certain sequence of events with clearly defined effects on tropical and subtropical rainfall. Excessive rainfall related to the SO in the central and eastern Pacific, Peru, Ecuador, and southern Brazil, are complemented by drought in Australia, Indonesia, India, West Africa, and northeast Brazil. El Nino-SO events are also associated with dramatic changes in the tropospheric flow pattern over a broad area of both hemispheres.

Kousky, V. E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Influences of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the Timing of the North American Spring

Detrended, modelled first leaf dates for 856 sites across North America for the period 1900-2008 are used to examine how the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) separately and together might influence the timing of spring. Although spring (mean March through April) ENSO and PDO signals are apparent in first leaf dates, the signals are not statistically significant (at a 95% confidence level (p <0.05)) for most sites. The most significant ENSO/PDO signal in first leaf dates occurs for El Nino and positive PDO conditions. An analysis of the spatial distributions of first leaf dates for separate and combined ENSO/PDO conditions features a northwest-southeast dipole that is significantly (at p <0.05) different than the distributions for neutral conditions. The nature of the teleconnection between Pacific SST's and first leaf dates is evident in comparable composites for detrended sea level pressure (SLP) in the spring months. During positive ENSO/PDO, there is an anomalous flow of warm air from the southwestern US into the northwestern US and an anomalous northeasterly flow of cold air from polar regions into the eastern and southeastern US. These flow patterns are reversed during negative ENSO/PDO. Although the magnitudes of first leaf date departures are not necessarily significantly related to ENSO and PDO, the spatial patterns of departures are significantly related to ENSO and PDO. These significant relations and the long-lived persistence of SSTs provide a potential tool for forecasting the tendencies for first leaf dates to be early or late.

McCabe, Gregory J.↗