Long-term Prediction of Spent Fuel Storage Canisters - Issues and Approaches - 18112
The considerations involved in aging management of stainless steel canisters used in dry cask storage of spent fuel are discussed in this paper in a probabilistic framework. The two important modes of degradation in the long-term performance of the casks are localized corrosion and stress corrosion cracking initiating from the external surface. These degradation modes are determined by the evolution of the electrochemical behavior and the strain rate of the stainless steel. Laboratory data suggest that Type 304L/316L stainless steels should suffer from localized corrosion and SCC under salt deposits. However, field inspection of the canisters has not indicated extensive pitting or stress corrosion cracking. This discrepancy can be understood in terms of the joint probabilities of various factors that must come together to cause these failure modes. A Bayesian network approach is suggested as the framework for modeling the probability of failure of canisters and long-term management of aging. The gaps in knowledge to conduct a Bayesian network analysis are discussed. (authors)